Part II: Field Study Caste
R. P. Jangir and Surendra Singh
Abstract
Climate change is the greatest challenge before the global society impacting the ecology, economy, and society in several ways. Rajasthan has reason to be concerned about the impact of climate change as its large population depends upon climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry for livelihood. Rajasthan shows a significant warming of 0.5C which is comparable to the global mean trend of 0.3C and all India mean of 0.4 C per 100 years. The climate of Rajasthan has exhibited a continuing trend towards desiccation, particularly after the severe drought of 1987. For example, in February and March, 2006 and 2008, there was high-temperature stress, and there was heavy frost in January, 2007 and 2010. In December and January, 2008–2009, there was unusual rise in temperature, and the yields of wheat and mustard were adversely affected.
Recently, in kharif, 2009, there was severe drought in most of the areas causing large-scale crop failure in western Rajasthan. Impact of climate change on agriculture is visualized in terms of increased problem of water stress in major kharif crops; heat stress in wheat, barley, mustard, and gram; occurrence of frost in mustard, gram, and pea; virus- and root- related diseases; sucking pests, mites, leaf minor, and gram pod borer in selected crops; emergence of new weeds; etc. These are creating subopti- mal and stressful environment for agricultural crop production. Green
R.P. Jangir (*)
S. K. Rajasthan Agricultural University, Bikaner, Rajasthan 334006, India
e-mail:[email protected] S. Singh
A.R.S, Durgapura, Jaipur, India
A.K. Singh et al. (eds.),Climate Change Modelling, Planning and Policy for Agriculture, DOI 10.1007/978-81-322-2157-9_18,#Springer India 2015
179
agriculture, water-saving agriculture including water harvesting and land treatment for in situ moisture conservation, adoption of integrated farming system, use of crop simulation models, emergency response system, and crop and weather insurance are some of the mitigation options available for ameliorating adverse impact of climate change for sustainable agriculture.
Keywords
Climate change • Agriculture • Mitigation options • Heat stress • Frost
Introduction
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Rajasthan is the largest state in India with two third of its area as semiarid. The semi- arid agriculture of Rajasthan is extremely vulner- able to weather and climate. In recent past, there was substantial loss of crop in the region due to extreme and unusual weather conditions. Semi- arid ecosystem has reason to be concerned about the impact of climate change as its large popula- tion depends upon climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry for livelihood. Any adverse impacts of water availability would threaten food security and rural households (Dash and Hunt2007).
Thus, climate change is a complex alteration of climate, subtle and continuous yet important through its consequences on vegetation of vari- ous types that thrived under constant or relatively unchanged climate. Some of the main effects of climate change with specific reference to agricul- ture and food production especially during the last decade are increased occurrence of drought, frost, flood, and heat stress; increased frequency of pest and diseases; etc. (Venkateshwaralu and Shanker2009) (Fig.1).
Climate Change in Rajasthan
In recent years, the incidence of climatic extreme events like drought, frost, heat stress, and even
sometimes flood has become frequent in the state. Climatic changes have already set in, resulting in changes in rainfall and temperature.
The analysis of temperature data of the last 100 years indicates a rise of 0.6C in Rajasthan’s temperature (Anonymous 2007). The analysis further reveals that climate of Rajasthan has exhibited a continuing trend towards desiccation, particularly after the severe drought of 1987. For example, in February and March, 2006 and 2008, there was high-temperature stress, and there was heavy frost in January, 2007 and 2010. In December and January, 2008–2009, there was unusual rise in temperature, and the yields of wheat and mustard were adversely affected.
Recently, in kharif, 2009, there was severe drought in most of the areas causing large-scale crop failure in western Rajasthan (Anonymous 2011). Some specific examples of climate change events in state are as under:
Impact on Ground Water Status
Lowering of ground water has become concern for the agricultural community in the state. In 1984, out of 236 blocks, 203 were safe (white category) and 32 blocks were dark. In 2008, out of 236 blocks, 31 blocks remained safe and 195 blocks come under dark zone. Thus, due to variability in rainfall and overexploitation of groundwater, water becomes the most scarce commodity for the agriculture (Anonymous 2010).
180 R.P. Jangir and S. Singh
Fig. 1 Various kinds of stresses arise due to the impact of climate change
Impact on Temperature
From 1998 onwards, mean temperature of state has shown rising trend. The mean temperature has increased from 0.2 to 1.6C (Table1). Like- wise, the mean maximum and mean minimum temperature has also shown increasing trend.
Similarly, the mean maximum temperature dur- ing the month of February and March of the zone III a has also risen from 0.6C (2003) to 7.9C (2009). The temperature of February and March
is most critical for the ripening of wheat crop in the state (Anonymous2011).
Monsoon Rains
The monsoon rains in the state had shown wide variability in the last decades (Table 2). The decadal variability of monsoon rains ranged from 19.2 (1941–1951) to 46.4 (1911–1921). The mean rainfall in 100 years ranged from 261.4 to Table 1 Temperature trend in the state 1998 onwards
Year Mean maximum temperature (C) Mean minimum temperature (C) Mean temperature (C)
Normal 32.7 18.4 25.6
1998 32.6 ( 0.1) 19.3(+0.9) 26.0 (+0.4)
1999 32.8 (+0.1) 18.8(+0.4) 25.8(+0.2)
2000 33.3 (+0.5) 19.5(+1.1) 26.4(+0.8)
2001 32.9 (+0.3) 18.8(+0.4) 25.9(+0.3)
2002 34.4(+1.8) 20.4(+2.0) 27.4(+1.8)
2003 32.9(+0.2) 19.4(+1.0) 26.2(+0.6)
2004 33.7(+1.0) 19.9(+1.5) 26.8(+1.3)
2005 32.8(+0.1) 18.9(+0.5) 25.9(+0.3)
2006 33.3(+0.6) 19.8(+1.4) 26.5(+0.9)
2007 33.2(+0.5) 19.8(+1.4) 26.5(+0.9)
2008 32.8(+0.1) 19.3(+0.9) 26.1(+0.5)
2009 33.9(+1.2) 20.2(+1.8) 27.0(+1.5)
2010 33.8(+1.1) 20.5(+2.1) 27.2(+1.6)
Mean (1979 to 2010) 33.1 19.1 26.1
Table 2 Impact of global warming on decadal mean rainfall of Rajasthan
Decade
Monsoon rainfall (June–Sept.)
Winter rainfall (Oct.–Jan.)
Pre-monsoon rainfall (Feb.,–May)
Decadal mean rainfall
C.V
(%) Range
1901–1911 451.4 14.1 26.6 492.1 35.5 261.4–814.4
1911–1921 467.1 33.4 34.3 534.7 46.4 239.1–811.8
1921–1931 499.0 30.0 42.1 549.6 16.8 412.1–688.9
1931–1941 494.5 22.0 25.9 542.4 21.3 371.0–681.8
1941–1951 529.2 22.1 22.8 632.7 19.2 458.0–777.9
1951–1961 468.2 28.0 17.9 511.2 27.0 312.6–703.7
1961–1971 477.2 13.9 24.9 516.0 19.4 363.0–689.7
1971–1981 578.1 32.0 22.2 632.4 25.9 411.5–834.3
1981–1991 459.1 29.0 33.0 521.1 21.1 314.5–727.3
1991–1901 531.3 34.1 26.4 591.8 18.6 403.5–757.2
2001–1911 487.8 8.2 35.8 532.4 24.6 267.1–718.7
Mean 494.8 24.3 28.4 550.6 25.1 261.4–834.3
182 R.P. Jangir and S. Singh
834.3 mm. The mean decadal pre-monsoon rain- fall has shown increasing trend, while winter rains in overall has shown decreasing trend.
The last decade rainfall data (2001–2010) shows that the peak month of monsoon rains in Jaipur district, i.e., August, is shifting towards July. Extreme events such as low temperature, maximum temperature, rainy days, and 1 day rains (>100 mm) are more pronounced in the last decade. Arid districts, i.e., Barmer,
Jaisalmer, Bikaner, and Jodhpur, are witnessing flood and more rains in the last years (Tables3 and4).
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
A recent simulation study has shown that a rise in temperature by 1 C can lead to a decline in 6
15
31 39
49
34
1413
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Rainfall (%)
June July August SeptemberMonth
Shift in monsoon rains in Jaipur district
Normal rainfall (%) Actual rainfall in last decade (%)
Decadal mean rainfall of Rajasthan
400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0
1901-11 1911-21 1921-31 1931-41 1941-51 1951--61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-11
Decades
Decadal mean rainfall
wheat production by 250 kg/ha in Rajasthan. In Indian mustard, the decline was 100 kg/ha/
degree rise in temperature in Rajasthan, whereas in chickpea (gram) the decline was 200 kg/ha.
There are concomitant declines in biomass yield also (Kalra et al.2008). In winter dry land crops, CO2enrichment and temperature rise could prob- ably result in depletion of soil water at a rapid during vegetative phase of growth leading to moisture stress during grain filling and conse- quently poor harvest index and low productivity.
In north India, warming would reduce some losses in yield by early pod set in winter grain legume like gram and lentil and by arresting frost damage in rape seed and mustard (Sharma2009).
Dadheech et al. (2009) had revealed that a 1C increase in temperature would reduce the dura- tion of wheat crop by 1 week, which lead to loss in yield by 400–500 kg/ha.
The following are the important examples of impact of climate change on agriculture
visualized in the state and need attention for sustaining agricultural production:
• Problem of water stress in major kharif crops
• Heat stress in wheat, barley, mustard, and gram
• Impact of frost in mustard, gram, and pea
• Virus- and root-related diseases in major crops
• Sucking pests, mites, leaf minor, and gram pod borer in selected crops
• Problem of new emerging weeds in field crops
• New emerging areas of salinity due to lower- ing of water table
• Problem of nematode in pulse crops
• Terminal heat stress in pearl millet
• Increasing intensity of YMV in pulses
• Problem of gummosis in cumin
Strategies for Mitigating the Impact of Climate Change for Sustainable Agricultural Production
Adaptation can complement mitigation as a cost- effective strategy to reduce the vulnerability of the natural and socioeconomic systems to projected climate change risks (Sathaye et al. 2006). Early actions on adaptation are always justifiable to avoid possible eco-disaster from the view point of precautionary principle and ecological prudence.
Table 3 Maximum rains recorded in 1 day
Year Rainfall (mm) Place Date
1995 494 Rupawas, Bharatpur 8 August 1995
1996 475 Mount Abu 29 July 1996
1997 305 Mount Abu 28 July 1997
1998 327 Mansi Dam, Tonk 14 July 1998
1999 300 Bilara, Jodhpur 31 August 1999
2000 385 Bijolia, Bhilwara 21 July 2000
2001 400 Baran 2 July 2001
2002 196 Hindoli, Bundi 9 August 2002
2003 270 Banswara 28 July 2003
2004 391 Hamirgarh 12 August 2004
2005 336 Bharatpur 12 July 2005
2006 451 Kalibore, Sirohi 20 August 2006
Table 4 Increasing rainfall in western districts of Rajasthan in the last 5 years
Year Barmer Jaisalmer Jodhpur Jalore Bikaner 2006 750.0 399.5 150.7 321.1 216.40 2007 245.2 356.8 248.2 422.5 270.10 2008 229.2 400.2 301.5 309.5 169.70 2009 201.0 356.8 497.6 562.1 263.60 2010 521.2 409.5 489.0 489.0 296.5 Normal 171.1 164.5 324.9 438.1 247.6
184 R.P. Jangir and S. Singh
Key strategies for sustaining agricultural production in light of climate changes are as under:
• Green agriculture for resilience to climate change
• Imparting redox homeostasis for crop toler- ance to environmental stress
• Agroforestry for soil restoration and climate change mitigation
• Adoption of water-saving agriculture includ- ing water harvesting and land treatment for in situ moisture conservation
• Adoption of integrated farming system approach for maximizing farm income
• Developing stress-tolerant varieties and genotypes
• Use of crop simulation models for decision support system
• Emergency response system (ERS) based on advanced information and information com- munication technology (ICT) for effective uti- lization of weather-based agro-advisory using modern tools like GIS and remote sensing
• Crop weather insurance
• Drought contingency planning
Technologies Generated
for Mitigating the Adverse Impact of Climate Change
Heat Stress in Wheat
On the basis of experiments conducted during 2007–2008 to 2010–2011, the following recommendations are generated for the farmers of the state for mitigating the adverse impact of heat stress in wheat:
1. Spray of thioglycolic acid (100 ppm) and salicylic acid (100 ppm) at jointing and ear emergence stage are recommended for mitigating the adverse impact of heat stress in wheat.
2. Water stress at tillering stage in wheat is use- ful in mitigating the impact of heat stress in wheat.
3. Raj-4037, Raj-4083. and Raj-4161 are newly released varieties of wheat tolerant to heat stress.
Frost Management in Mustard and Gram
1. Spray of 0.1 % H2SO4and thiourea (500 ppm) is recommended at pre-flowering and pod for- mation stage for mitigating the adverse impact of frost in mustard and gram.
2. RGN-13 and RGN-45 varieties of mustard are tolerant to frost.
In conclusion, it can be said that in the facet of climate change, looming large sustainable agriculture in the modern era will have to be based on appropriate use of eco-technology, biotechnology, and information technology.
Blending of traditional farming with modern technologies can help to reduce the ill effects of climate change through efficient utilization of natural resources for sustainable agricultural production.
References
Anonymous (2007) Climate: variability & change back- ground material towards preparation of Adaptation strategy for the state of Rajasthan. Department of environment, GOR, Rajasthan Pollution control board
Anonymous (2010) Vital agriculture statistics of Rajasthan. Commissionaire of Agriculture. GoR, Pant Krishi Bhavan, Jaipur
Anonymous (2011) Consolidated progress report on
“Adaptation Strategies for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change in late sown wheat Dadheech RC, Solanki NS, Tiwari RC (2009) Climate
change: a threat and challenge to agriculture. Paper presented in conference on effect of environment change on agriculture held at RCA, Udaipur Dash SK, Hunt JC (2007) Variability of climate change in
India. Curr Sci 93(6):783–788
Kalra N, Chakraborty D, Sharma A, Rai HK, Jolly M, Chander S, Ramesh Kumar P, Bhadraray S, Barman D, Miltal RB, Lal M, Sehgal M (2008) Effect of increasing temperature on yield winter crops in north west India. Curr Sci 94:82–88
Sathaye J, Shukka PR, Ravindanath NH (2006) Curr Sci 90(3):314–325
Sharma DD (2009) Impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide shift in agriculture. Paper presented in conference on effect of environment change on agriculture held at RCA, Udaipur
Venkateshwaralu B, Shanker AK (2009) Climate change and agriculture: adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Indian J Agron 54(2):226–230
Trends in Climatic Change in the Last 50 Years at Seven Agro-climatic Regions of Tamil Nadu
T. Sivakumar, P.T. Suraj, and P.C. Jayashree
Abstract
The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development and one of the most important global environmental challenges facing humanity which go far beyond its effect on the environ- ment. In order to understand the climatic change happening in the differ- ent agro-climatic regions of Tamil Nadu and to develop strategies to mitigate climatic stress and to optimise productivity monthly, Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Relative Humidity Data during the period 1955–2005 were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department, Pune. From the basic temperature data, mean maximum, mean minimum and Temperature Humidity Index was computed for each month for the seven agro-climatic regions of Tamil Nadu. Mean maximum temperature was observed at the month of May, and Cauvery Delta zone showed maximum temperature of 38.22 1.33C with significant difference of P<0.01 between the regions. Mean minimum temperature was observed at the month of January, and hilly zone showed minimum temperature of 5.591.31 C with a significant difference of P<0.01 between the regions. The long-term mean and annual compounded growth rates of Tmax, Tminand THI were worked out on the basis of the representative areas selected for the study. The annual growth rate of maximum and minimum temperatures showed different patterns for different agro- climatic zones in the study area. The Tmaxshowed an increase in all the agro-climatic zones except in north-western zone and southern zone. Tmin also showed a positive growth pattern in all agro-climatic zones except in north-western zone and southern zone. The annual growth rate of THI showed different patterns for different agro-climatic zones. Five agro- climatic zones, viz., north-eastern zone, western zone and hilly zones, Cauvery Delta zone and high rainfall zone, were showing a positive
T. Sivakumar (*) • P.T. Suraj • P.C. Jayashree Department of Livestock Production and Management, Madras Veterinary College, Chennai 600007, Tamil Nadu, India
e-mail:[email protected]
A.K. Singh et al. (eds.),Climate Change Modelling, Planning and Policy for Agriculture, DOI 10.1007/978-81-322-2157-9_19,#Springer India 2015
187
annual compounded growth rate for both morning and evening THI.
In north-western zone the growth in THI was limited to morning and the evening THI showed a negative growth. Southern zone showed a negative annual compounded growth rate for both morning and evening THI.
Keywords
Annual compounded growth rate • Climate change • T maximum • T minimum • Temperature Humidity Index • Tamil Nadu
Introduction
Livestock and agriculture sectors are primarily dependent on the timely availability of water and favourable climate. Total rainfall received in a particular area is a key factor in determining the amount of water available to meet various demands in agricultural and livestock divisions.
Climate changes may influence rainfall patterns, thus increasing the demand for availability of water with the danger of rising incidents of droughts. The southwest monsoon (SW) brings about 80 % of rainfall over the country and is the major source for the availability of freshwater for drinking and irrigation. Climate change over the Indian boundaries, especially the SW monsoon, would have a significant impact on water resources management in agricultural production and livestock industry. In view of the above, a number of studies have attempted to investigate the trend of climatic variables for the country.
These studies have looked at the trends on the country scale, regional scales and at the individ- ual stations (Jain and Kumar2012).
In irregular distribution of rainfall and the difference between water availability and demand, large storage reservoirs are required to redistribute the natural flow in accordance with the requirements of specific regions (Mehrotra 1999). Changes in rainfall due to global warming will influence the hydrological cycle and the pat- tern of stream-flows and demands. Changes in run-off and its distribution will depend on likely future climate scenarios (IPCC 2007). Climate change disrupts temperatures, as well as rainfall patterns in the densely populated regions that would have enormous significance for livelihood
and well-being of the people of the region. Cli- mate change will have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for people across India Geethalakshmi et al. (2011).
The cascading effects of rising temperatures are already affecting water availability, biodiversity, ecosystem boundaries and global feedbacks (Amin et al.2004).
The trend analysis of rainfall, temperature and other climatic variables on different spatial scales will help in the construction of future climate scenarios. A combination of adaptive and preventive measures is urgently required in conjunction with climatological data to assess climatic impact and provide a rational basis for decisions on long-range management and hous- ing strategies for livestock producers. It is the poorest who has the least resources and capacity to adapt who will be hit hardest by the changing climate. They rely largely on climate-sensitive activities largely in the agriculture sector.
Supporting these people to adapt to the effects of climate change is critical in order to achieve sustainable development. India’s immense geo- graphic diversity adds to the difficulty of devel- oping an adaptation strategy. Approaches will need to be tailored to meet local vulnerabilities and conditions. This is why it is important to conduct in-depth vulnerability assessment to identify those areas of India which will be most affected by climate change. Similarly, a combina- tion of long-term climate changes and expected production changes provide a rational basis for prediction of the impact of potential global cli- mate changes on livestock production (Tadross et al. 2005). The status on weather events lies
scattered in the scientific and technical papers and in the research work of many authors, and if put together, they will help the research community for further analysis. The aim of this study is thus to provide figures as well as composite (average) curves for the main meteorological parameters to identify and develop strategies to mitigate cli- matic stress and to optimise productivity monthly Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Rela- tive Humidity Data during the period 1955–2005.
Materials and Methods
Past data on temperature (maximum and mini- mum) and relative humidity for the past 50 years (1955–2005) were collected from the National Data Centre, Indian Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411 005, Maharashtra, for understanding the climate change occurring in the seven different agro-climate zones of Tamil Nadu. Temperature Humidity Index (THI) was calculated for morning and evening from mean dry bulb and wet bulb temperature by using the formula THI¼0.72 (dry bulb temp + wet bulb temp). From the basic temperature data, mean maximum (Tmax) and mean minimum (Tmin) along with their standard deviation (SD) and sig- nificance were calculated by using SPSS 17. The long-term mean and annual compounded growth rates of T. maximum, T. minimum and THI (morning and evening) were also worked by using the formula (LOGEST(DATA1)*100).
Cluster analysis was performed with the primer software version 6. It is also essential to mention that there were some missing data in some months. Data were considered to be missing when the data were not recorded. To maintain the continuity, the gaps were filled up by the time mean values of the existing years. After comple- tion collecting data were compiled, tabulated and analysed according to the objectives of the study.
Results and Discussion
Studying climate change has been one of the most challenging problems around the world
because of both its practical value in meteorology and for scientific research. Every sign points to the facts that there is a recognised need for accu- rate estimates of the temperature on a variety of temporal and spatial scales (Tadross et al.2005).
The THI morning in the seven agro-climatic regions of Tamil Nadu is presented in Table1.
All the seven agro-climatic regions showed sig- nificant difference (P<0.01) in THI morning.
Similarly, THI evening also showed significant difference (P<0.01) between different agro- climatic regions that are presented in Table 2.
The Tmax in the seven agro-climatic regions of Tamil Nadu are presented in Table3. Mean max- imum temperature was observed at the month of May, and Cauvery Delta zone showed maximum temperature of 38.221.33 C and showed significant difference (P>0.01) between the regions. The Tmin in the seven agro-climatic regions of Tamil Nadu are presented in Table4.
Mean minimum temperature was observed at the month of January, and hilly zone showed mini- mum temperature of 5.591.31C and showed significant difference (P>0.01). The annual growth rate of maximum and minimum temperatures showed different patterns for differ- ent agro-climatic zones in the study area. The annual compounded growth rate of Tmax and Tminis shown in Figs.1,2,3,4,5,6and7. The Tmaxshowed an increase in all the agro-climatic zones except in north-western zone, southern zone and Cauvery Delta zone. Tminalso showed a positive growth pattern in all agro-climatic zones except in north-western zone and Cauvery Delta zone. The annual growth rate of THI showed different patterns for different agro- climatic zones that are presented in Figs. 8, 9, 10,11,12,13and14. Five agro-climatic zones, viz., north-eastern zone, western zone, hilly zones, southern zone and high rainfall zone, were showing a positive annual compounded growth rate for both morning and evening THI.
In the north-western zone, the growth in THI was limited to morning and the evening THI showed a negative growth and Cauvery Delta zone showed a negative growth in THI morning.
Temperatures over a particular area may vary seasonally or annually depending upon latitude, Trends in Climatic Change in the Last 50 Years at Seven Agro-climatic. . . 189