The Framework for Strategic Management
2.2 Screening Demands to Determine Intakes
Once a situation has been identified as uncertain, four responses are possible (see Figure 2.1). Each of these responses involves a different degree of commitment to the decision process.
The first possibility is to disregard the uncertain situation, that is, to decide to do nothing about it. Such a response is likely when the demand is below some threshold of tolerance. If for some reason—such as time, cost, or effort—this response is invoked, the decision process will be cut short. For the purposes of this discussion, we have no further interest in such negative behavior.
The second possible response is to identify the uncertain situation as one that can be handled through programmed decision mechanisms. This response would suggest that some sort of memory bank exists within the decision system in which these programmed decision mechanisms are stored and against which uncertain situations can be tested to determine if an appropriate programmed decision is available. Again, the decision process is cut short by the application of a programmed response.
If either of the two remaining possible responses is invoked, the decision process moves to the next stage—that ofclassification and definition. Inputs are screened to determine the actual intakes into the decision system. This screening filters out those demands for which no further action will be taken at present and those which can be handled through programmed mechanisms. The individuals responsible for this screening are analogous to the “gatekeepers” in Easton’s conceptual schema.
FIGURE2.1Screeningdemandstodetermineintakes.
Although uncertainty is essential to an initiation of the decision process, it is not sufficient to create a problematic situation, that is, one for which decision makers are likely to seek alternative solutions. As Dewey has observed, the uncertain situation “becomes problematic in the very process of being subjected to inquiry [10].” Under analysis, the problematic situation is made more explicit.
As Rapoport noted, the first step in solving a problem is to state it.
The statement usually involves a description of an existing state and desirable state of affairs where the factors involved in the discrepancy are explicitly pointed out. The success with which any problem is solved depends to a great extent on the clarity with which it is stated. In fact, the solution of the problem is, in a sense, a clarification (or concretization) of the objectives [11].
Vague statements of the situation lead to vague methods, where success is erratic and questionable. The more a given problem situation can be extended, the better the classification, and the greater the promise of a successful solution.
The first question to be asked about an uncertain situation is: Is this a symptom of a fundamental or generic problem or merely a stray event? A generic problem often can be handled through the application of programmed to adaptive responses. The truly exceptional event, however, must be handled as it is encountered [12].
Strictly speaking, a distinction should be made among four, rather than two, different types of problem sets. First, there is a trulygeneric event, of which the individual occurrence is only a symptom. Most of the problems confronting complex organizations fall into this category. As a rule, such generic situations require adaptive decisions. Frequently, programmed decision mechanisms are applied to the symptoms of a generic problem. Until the generic problem is identified, however, significant amounts of time and energy may be spent in the piecemeal application of programmed decisions to the symptoms without ever gaining control of the generic situation.
The second type of occurrence is one that, although unique in a given organization, is actually a generic event. For example, the choice of a location for a new sewage plant may be a unique situation as far as the current decision makers in a community are concerned. It is, of course, a generic situation that has confronted many other communities in the past. Some general rules exist for deciding on the best location for such facilities, and the decision makers can turn to the experience of others for these guidelines.
The third possible classification is the trulyunique situation. In such cases, the event itself may be unique or the circumstances in which the event has occurred may be unique. For example, the huge power failure of November 1965, which plunged northeastern North America into darkness, was a true exception or unique event, at least according to the first explanations. On the
other hand, the collision of two airplanes miles from any air terminal is a unique situation, not because airplanes do not run the risk of collision, but because the unique circumstances under which the event occurred.
The fourth type of event confronting the decision process is the early manifestationof a new generic problem. Both the power failure and the collision of the two airplanes, for example, turned out to be only the first occurrences of what are likely to become fairly frequent events unless generic solutions are found to certain basic problems of modern technology.
General rules, policies, or principles usually can be developed or adapted to deal with generic situations. Once an appropriate decision has been found, all manifestations of the same generic situation can be handled fairly pragmatically by adapting the rules or principles to the concrete circumstances of the situation.
In short, such problems can be handled through adaptive decision making.
The unique problem and the first manifestation of a generic problem, however, often require greater innovation in the search for successful solutions.
As illustrated in Figure 2.2, the relationships among these four categories can be described in terms of the two fundamental dimensions ofavailability of rules and principles for dealing with such problems and thefrequency of encounter of these situations.
By far the most common mistake in decision making is to treat a generic problem as if it was a series of unique events. The other extreme, treating a unique event as if it was just another example of the same old problem to which the same old rule should be applied (that is, treating every problem incrementally), can have equally negative repercussions.
FIGURE2.2 Classification and definitions of basic problems.
The role of the experienced strategic manager is to avoid incomplete solutions to problems that are only partially understood. The technical expertise of those closest to the situation should be used to classify the problem. Once a problem has been classified, it is usually relatively easy to define. A further danger in this step, however, is that of finding a plausible albeit incomplete definition of the problem. Safeguards against an incomplete definition include checking it against all observable facts and discarding the definition if and when it fails to encompass any of these facts.
The outcome of this analysis should be a clear definition of the problem. If the problem cannot be stated specifically, preferably in one interrogative sentence (including one or more objectives), then the analysis has been inadequate or of insufficient depth. Emotional bias, habitual or traditional behavior, and the human tendency to seek the path of least resistance may contribute to a superficial analysis, followed by a statement of the apparent rather than the real problem. An excellent solution to an apparent problem will not work in practice, because it is the solution to a problem that does not exist in fact. Short-circuiting this phase of the decision process may actually result in more time spent later to get at the real problem when it becomes painfully evident that further analysis is required.
2.3 Identification of Constraints and