UNIT XIII INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND
F. Sentence Connector
Sentence connector berfungsi untuk menghubungkan dua kalimat.
Untuk lebih jelasnya akan dibahas beberapa macam connector di bawah ini:
So … that; such …… that …. (=sangat …… sehingga), Contohnya:
He is so busy that he can‟t finish the project
Dady is such a busy man that he can‟t finish the project The film is so interesting that I saw twice
Clara is such a friendly girl that everyone likes her
In order to ……; in order that (=agar supaya, dengan maksud),
Contohnya:
He wants to study information systems in order to get a better job
My sister studies English in order to study abroad
She went abroad in order that she could speak English fluently
I study statistics in order that I can analyse the data
Not only …but also…;not only …but as well (…bukan saja
…tetapi juga) Contohnya:
He not only steal my data but also delete it
He studies not only multimedia but also expert system I not only master English well but also Germany She can play not only tennis but badminton as well
Either ….or ….. = baik …maupun.
Neither …nor …= tidak …juga tidak Contoh:
Either operator or analyst will join the training She can speak either French or English
Neither I nor he will sign the agreement He can neither write Japanese nor Chinese
UNIT XVIII RISK ANALYSIS
Risk analysis (or risk engineering) is another approach that helps to manage uncertainty and its effect. It consists of identifying areas of possible risk, estimating and allocating probabilities to the risk, identifying possible responses (which may be pre-emptive or after the fact) and allocating costs to the risks and actions. The result is a trade- off between expected risk and expected cost for different alternatives.
In principle, in-depth risk analysis ought to lead to the formulation of a risk management strategy consisting of a set of response options aimed at dealing with specific sources of risks.
Various method for risk analysis exist, for example, SCERT (Synergistic Contigency Evaluation and Review Tehnique). This has been used for large engineering projects but contains principle relevant to a wide variety of applications. Indeed, it is potentially invaluable in formulating corporate strategy (Cooper and Chapman, 1987). One application in the context of information systems development is in project planning. In this context, the basic risk engineering notion of alternative views and representations of any given situation applies.
There are a variety of associated models, and the need to select that view which is the most appropriate to the particular circumstances is important.
SCERT consists of four stages. The first, the scope phase, identifies aspects of interest, in terms of objective, associated risks, and responses to the risks. The approach uses precedence and bar chart representations and extensive, structured, verbal documentation about the activities, risks, and responses. The second phase structures the risks and responses, identifying specific and general responses, and identifies decision rules. This leads to a risk-response list which can be represented in diagrammatic form. The parameter phase identifies parameters with which outcomes are to be judged, and scenario and
their probability. Such parameter will include money, safety, and timescale. The final manipulation and interpretation phase estimates the probabilities along with the associated risks within an activity and attempts to strike a good balance between risk and costs. Usually an allowances is made in the budget for contingencies.
Throughout the whole process there is feedback, and this continues until the problem description, structuring, probabilities, decision rules, and their schedule implications have been agreed. More formally, the structure and parameter phases are first performed with
„primary‟ risk and then again for ‟secondary‟ risk (i.e. those that are due to the responses of the primary risks). There may also be a case for looking at tertiary risks and responses as well. Generally available software supporting simulation and PERT may also be useful.
Risk analysis need not be solely concerned with identifying risk. It can also be concerned with identifying opportunities. The costs allocated to each risk need not be represented in terms of money alone and could be represented in terms of time, social, reliability, and safety metrics. The general outline of risk analysis as stated here may not be completely applicable for producing information systems or smaller systems generally, but the „methodology‟ may be tailored to match the problem area. Ideally such an analysis would be undertaken at a very early stage in project.
There are potential problems with risk analysis. For example, it will be difficult to identify all the activities and risks, and estimate (accurately) the probabilities of risks. However, there is no limit to the amount of time that could be spent attempting to analyse risk and plan reactions to it. Indeed, complexity and uncertainty, and general may be so great that analysis of risk must be greatly simplified. Analysis consumes resources, and this may lead to choosing the option that identifies „general responses‟ to several problems rather than identify in detail every source of risk. This reduces effort in dealing with uncertainty, and general responses are a natural first line of defence in copying with „unforeseeable‟ threats or opportunities.
An important result of more detailed risk analysis is that decision makers can gain an understanding of trade-off between expected risks and costs of different alternatives, giving a firm basis on which to make and compare decisions. Risk analysis is likely to be more useful at the start of information systems development, though some of the principles can be carried through stages.
A. Based on the reading text above, Please answer as the following