One cannot reap the full benefits of this book without first having a com- prehensive understanding of the environments that influence and surround the conduct of a security assessment. These environments are: threats, west- ern values, and the makeup of the National Critical Infrastructure Sectors.
13
14 STRATEGIES FOR PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS
Exhibit 2.1 Environments that influence the security assessment
UNDERSTANDING THE THREAT ENVIRONMENT The Birth of Modern-Day Terrorism
Terrorism is as old as civilization and throughout history has taken on various forms and guises. Understanding the numerous threats of our time and knowing the aims and deceptions of terrorists are critical to developing a strategy of protective measures necessary to defeat the threat.
The “act of terrorism” or “terrorist activity” has its roots in the begin- ning of modern civilization. The first recorded terrorists were holy war- riors who killed civilians in first-century Palestine. Jewish zealots would publicly slit the throats of Romans and their collaborators. In seventh-cen- tury India, the Thuggee cult would ritually strangle passersby as sacrifices to the Hindu deity Kali. In the eleventh-century Middle East, the Shiite sect known as the Assassins would eat hashish before murdering civilian foes. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, historians can trace recognizably modern forms of terrorism back to such late-nineteenth-cen- tury organizations as Narodnaya Volya [“People’s Will”] in Russia. One particularly successful early case of terrorism was the 19 14 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Serb extremist-an event that helped trigger World War I. [ I ]
ENVIRONMENTS THAT INFLUENCE THE SECURITY ASSESSMENT 15
The term “terrorism” was first coined during France’s Reign of Terror in 1793-94. Originally the leaders of this systematized attempt to weed out
“traitors” among the revolutionary ranks praised terror as the best way to defend liberty, but as the French Revolution soured, the word soon took on grim echoes of state violence and guillotines.
The Psychology of Terrorism
Terrorists seek to demoralize free nations with dramatic acts of mur- der and destruction. They seek to wear down resolve and will by killing the innocent and spreading fear and anarchy. They operate as a network of many violent extremist groups around the world, striking separately and at times in concert but retaining their separate identity and quest for recogni- tion. Terrorism, and in particular the suicide bomber, is meant to produce psychological effects that reach far beyond the immediate horror of the attacks. The strategy of suicide terrorists is to make people paranoid and xenophobic, fearful of venturing beyond their homes even to shop, go to school, or attend events. Terrorists hope to compel societies to acquiesce or surrender to stated demands. The fimdamental characteristics of suicide bombings and the strong attractions for a terrorist organization behind them are universal: they are inexpensive and effective, and the organiza- tion has nothing to lose. They are less complicated and compromising than other kinds of terrorist operations. They guarantee media coverage and tear at the very fabric of trust that holds societies together. Suicide bombers are responsible for almost half of all attacks and on average kill four times as many people as other terrorist acts [2].
In the past terrorist groups were mainly motivated by political ideology, usually avoiding mass-casualty attacks for fear of alienating their political constituencies and potential recruits. Today, religiously motivated terrorist g r o u p s v r those that hide behind religion-xhibit fewer self-imposed constraints. They believe in annihilating their enemies, thus the increase in more dramatic terrorist acts involving a higher kill ratio than in the past [3]. A defining moment came during the late 1960s with the hijacking of commercial airlines. Later, radical Islam caught the attention of the world in 1979 when the late Ayatollah Khomeini assumed power and established the Islamic Republic of Iran [4]. The subsequent hostage crisis at the American Embassy in Tehran highlighted the dangers radicalism posed.
Today, the psychology of terrorism is to “think bigger.” We are seeing a trend in which terrorists now target a nation’s critical infrastructure to achieve three general types of effects:
16 STRATEGIES FOR PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS
DIRECT Cascading disruption or arrest of the functions of critical lNFRASTRUCTURE infrastructures or key assets through direct attacks on a crit-
EFFECTS: ical mode, system, or function.
INDIRECT Cascading disruption and financial consequences for an INFRASTRUCTURE enterprise through public and private-sector reactions to an
EFFECTS: attack.
EXPLOITATION OF Exploitation of elements of a particular infrastructure to dis- INFRASTRUCTURE: rupt or destroy another target.
Exhibit 2.2 Terrorists’ long-term strategic objectives
As a nation we must protect the critical infrastructure and key assets from acts of terrorism that would:
Impair an enterprise’s ability to perform essential services and ensure Undermine the enterprise’s capacity to deliver minimal essential pub- Damage the enterprise’s ability to function
Undermine the community’s morale and confidence in the enter- the general public’s health and safety
lic services
prise’s capability to deliver services The Many Faces of Terrorism
The war on terrorism is not a war of religions or a clash between civi- lizations. For example, the civilization of Islam, with its humane tradi- tions of learning and tolerance, has no place for these violent sects of thugs, killers, assassins, and tyrants. The faith of Islam teaches men and women moral responsibility and forbids the shedding of innocent blood.
Those who believe in Jihad-the holy war against all nonbelievers-prac- tice a fringe form of Islamic extremism that has been rejected by Muslim scholars and the vast majority of Muslim clerics as a movement that per- verts the peaceful teachings of Islam. These extremist terrorists follow a doctrine that commands them to kill Christians, Jews, and Americans and to make no distinction among military and civilians, including women and children. They believe that the Middle East must fall under the rule of rad- ical governments, moderate Arab states must be overthrown, nonbelievers
ENVIRONMENTS THAT INFLUENCE T H E SECURITY ASSESSMENT 17
must be expelled from Muslim lands, and the harshest practice of extrem- ist rule must be universally enforced. Islamic extremists claim that the United States is a target because it is a supporter of reactionary, nonpro- gressive regimes; the United States leads the anti-Islamic movement; the United States is the home of Jewish-American-Israeli capital; and attacks within the United States present an element of tactical surprise.
In tern ation al Terrorism
The enemy has no rules-only the determination to instill fear, control behavior, and kill. What drives current international terrorism is the belief and duty to fight the modern, usually Western, world. In this vision books are burned, terrorists are sheltered, women are whipped, and chil- dren are schooled in hatred, murder, and suicide. International terrorism has long been recognized as a serious foreign and domestic security threat.
A modern trend in terrorism is toward loosely organized, self-financed international networks of terrorists. Another trend is toward terrorism that is religiously or ideologically motivated. Radical Islamic fundamentalist groups, or groups using religion as a pretext, pose terrorist threats of vary- ing kinds to United States interests and to friendly regimes. A third trend is the apparent growth of cross-national links among different terrorist organizations, which may involve combinations of military training, fund- ing, technology transfer, or political advice.
Once considered insignificant and a local law-enforcement nuisance, terrorism in general remained relatively unchallenged until recently.
Today we witness it standing fully erect, exposing itself to the entire world, and we recognize the madness for what it really is-misguided hatred and misconceived intervention in the affairs of nations, the practice of religion, and the behavior of individuals across all aspects of life. For terrorists, killing people has been the dramatic backdrop to guarantee worldwide attention with a single horrific act. Notwithstanding the terri- ble loss of life, the real targets of most terror campaigns have not been the unfortunate victims but their survivors and the captive world audience. [ 5 ]
The end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union dramatically rearranged the thrust and complexity of international terrorism. The restraining influences of this former superpower on terrorist groups have vanished, rendering old strategic-threat assumptions obsolete. What we have witnessed with the collapse of Soviet control in the region is the diffusion of power across the globe and the cancerous growth of a new threat. The inde- pendence gained by the former Soviet states has had a price: regional and global instability as these countries try to establish themselves and maintain
18 STRATEGIES FOR PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS
order, an increase in organized and petty crime, the proliferation and sale of weapons of mass destruction to rogue states, and new safe havens for terror- ists. The corrupting elements in these new regimes pose a substantial chal- lenge to the United States and world stability. [6].
In the midst of the race to gain recognition for their respective causes, political and religious terrorists seek to assert themselves in rapid succes- sion in a number of countries including the United States, giving rise to various terrorist subgroups. In particular, the threat posed by radical Jihadists has metastasized into something more widespread, and perhaps more lethal, than other global terrorist organizations that are developing and managing terror plots.
It is essential to understand the nature of terrorism and its causes.
The main thrust of the current terrorist threat in the West comes from an ideological war within Islam. A radical Islamic faction is attacking moder- ate Muslims no less viciously than Westerners. Conventional security thinking was mostly geared to catching or preventing criminals motivated by greed working in deviant subcultures or those using their psychopathic and antisocial behavior for personal gain. In contrast, the motives of the modern foreign terrorist focus on real socioeconomic and political issues and defy all the normal rules of governance, including rules of war and combat. In fact, their aim is precisely to show how powerless governments are by using unconventional means that instill insecurity and fear in the population and doubt about the government’s ability to control the situa- tion. Terrorists do not focus on personal gain but rather work for a higher calling or cause, such as Jihad.
The culture of the West, and in particular of the U.S., functions in spans of time dictated by elections or appointments. Democratic societies want quick action and look for instant poll results. Elected or appointed govern- ments do not usually have the years needed to mount lengthy campaigns.
But if they do nothing for a period, the opposition party will use this inac- tion as a spear to wage its own internal criticism of the incompetence of the existing governing party. Conversely, terrorists are not constrained by time, conditions, elections, or the rule of laws. They do not need to win
“the war” to have immediate effect-they need only win a particular battle at a particular time. A perfect example is the Madrid train bombing in April 2004 and the Spanish government’s withdrawal of its military forces from Iraq soon afterward [7].
Terrorists are strategic actors. Terrorism is theater at its finest hour, and the television networks are the box office. Politically and ideologi- cally motivated terrorist groups thrive on publicity and aim at producing
ENVIRONMENTS THAT INFLUENCE THE SECUFUTY ASSESSMENT 19
immediate dramatic effects. Well-publicized attacks attract worldwide attention to the terrorists and their causes, forcing governments, in the eye of the public, to direct unprecedented resources to counter the threat. This threat is achieved by attacking highly symbolic and wlnerable targets-a
“shock and alarm” tactic oriented toward causing heavy property damage rather than mass casualties [not both?]. Targets are deliberately chosen based on weaknesses observed in defense and preparations. They weigh the difficulty in successfully executing a particular attack against the mag- nitude of its impact. They monitor media accounts, listen to policymakers as nations discuss how to protect themselves, and adjust their plans accordingly. Where nations insulate themselves from one form of attack, terrorists shift and focus on another exposed vulnerability [8].
In a post-Cold War environment, terrorist activity has moved away from government targets and placed its gun-sight on commercial enterprise tar- gets. The Department of Transportation and Commerce is replacing the Department of Defense as the latest symbolic icon of the American estab- lishment. Infrastructure assets are much softer targets than govern- ment facilities and have therefore become more attractive to the ter- rorist. Moreover, the economic and psychological impact of destroying the infrastructure is more devastating than damaging a single military facility. Large numbers of people and business establishments become the victim of a single attack, and the media does the rest of the intended dam- age by reporting pre-determined misinformation offered by an “unknown”
or “confidential” source. [9]
Economically related targets are chosen for almost two out of three terrorist attacks, and except for specific retaliatory purposes business targets appear to be better suited to meeting terrorist objectives than government targets. Organizations that have national or international notoriety or symbolic significance are extremely vulnerable. Terrorist groups are now turning their attention to more critical, vulnerable targets such as bridges and tunnels; telecommunications and computer networks;
power, oil, and gas systems; transportation; and drinking water [ 101.
Evidence obtained in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other countries indicates that terrorists consider these assets as viable targets for a dramatic entree onto the stage, even greater than the events of 9/1 1. Several foiled terrorist plots confirm this determination.
Specifically, the following plots come to mind:
0 LONDON, ENGLAND-Plot to bomb underground subway and bus dis- covered [2005]
20 STRATEGIES FOR PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS
NEWARK, NJ-Lot to buy “Dirty Bomb” and smuggle shoulder-held NEW YORK, NY-Plot to blow up subway station at Herald Squared NEW YORK, NY-Plot to use tourist helicopters in terrorist attacks BRITIAN, UNITED KINGDOM-Authorities discover plot to attack MADRID, SPAIN-Plot unfoiled to blow up high speed train. [2204]
MADRID, SPAIN-Police foil attempt to blow up city’s main subway sta- Los ANGELES, CA-Plot to blow-up LAX Airport during the millen- MANILA, PHILIPPINES-Plot uncovered to blow up 12 U.S. aircraft over PARIS, FRANCE-Plot uncovered to fly jet liner into Eiffel Tower. [ 19941 NEW YORK, NY-Plot uncovered to blow up Lincoln and Holland Tunnels, and other tunnels and bridges throughout Manhattan. [ 19931 missiles into the United States discovered. [ 20051
uncovered. [2004]
uncovered. [2004]
Heathrow International Airport. [2004]
tion. [2002]
nial discovered. [ 19991 the Pacific [ 19951
Terrorists are also masters of publicity. They use the news media for maximum effect. The media brings the world into the living room of every household, constantly increasing the awareness of potential threats and actual attacks. This magnifies the problem, giving the terrorists the publicity they crave and instilling fear into the population. Since terror- ism relies on the media to present dramatic news, each subsequent terror- ist attack needs to be more newsworthy than the last. As such, they are looking to more sophisticated technology-possibly dirty bombs, chemi- cal and biological weapons, and even crude nuclear devices-to deliver their next evening newscast [ 1 11. While global terrorist organizations may continue to focus on spectacular iconic targets, independent terrorist cells will likely narrow in on the water and power, communications, pub- lic-health, and rail and mass-transit systems.
International Terrorist Cells
International terrorist cells exist in most major American cities.
Findings in Afghanistan confirm that most of the 19 men who hijacked the planes on September 11 were trained in secret camps. So were tens of thousands of others. These dangerous killers, schooled in methods of mur- der and destruction, often supported by hostile regimes, are now spread
ENVIRONMENTS THAT INFLUENCE THE SECURITY ASSESSMENT 21
throughout the world-including the United States-like time bombs set to go off without warning. According to government officials, presently within the United States there are representatives from state sponsors of terrorism, members of international terrorist groups, as well as violent radical Islamic fundamentalists:
These include representatives from Libya, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, North Korea, and Cuba. Many have resided in America since 1992. [ 121 Every major terrorist organization in the Middle East has created sig- nificant infrastructure networks across America. Intelligence reports indicate that the Abu Nidal Organization [AND], the Islamic Resistance Movement in Palestine [HAMAS], the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine [PFLP], Hezbollah, A1 Gama a1 Islamiyyia [IG], Palestinian Islamic Jihad [PIT], A1 Furgra, and a1 Qaeda have established operational networks in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Canada, and Mexico. Radical Islamic fundamentalist groups are established and operating in over 40 major U.S. cities and over 60 countries. The activities of these groups include recruiting, weapons training, bomb making, robbery, extortion, counterfeiting money and documents, and other criminal acts. [ 131
Attempts to sabotage New York City’s federal buildings, the United Nations complex, and both the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels, in addition to a series of independent political assassinations and kidnappings of pub- lic figures, highlight an unprecedented conspiracy for large-scale urban terrorism. Other unprecedented terrorist offensives against European tar- gets and the United States include bombing landmark buildings and lacing a large city’s water supply with a deadly botulism toxin developed in Iranian biological-warfare laboratories in Esfahan. These activities demonstrate the intent and capability of international terrorists to conduct attacks on a scale not previously seen. [ 141
We also know for certain that enemies of the United States posing as visitors and invited guests will take advantage of the constitutional liberty and personal freedoms we enjoy. Without hesitation, they will attempt to violate the very foundation of our laws to inflict damage, death, and destruction upon our nation, our communities, and our people. Other dis- coveries in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines confirm that the depth of their hatred is equaled only by the madness of destruction that they design. Diagrams of American nuclear power plants and water-supply sys- tems, detailed instructions for making chemical and biological weapons,
22 STRATEGIES FOR PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS
and surveillance maps of American cities provide thorough descriptions of threats to landmarks in America and throughout the world.
There also remains an underlying potential threat from those posing as foreign students and immigrants who may have entered the United States to support internal terrorist activities prior to the September 11 attacks. Although most foreign students possess legal status and con- tribute to America’s diversity and economy, there are over four million persons residing illegally in the country. A flow of illegal immigrants across our porous borders makes it virtually impossible to exclude all foreign terrorists.
This new threat environment has increased the number of terrorist cells operating on their own, relatively independent of their leaders. The United States-led war on terror has disrupted the global terrorist organizational structure and shifted responsibility for initiating and executing attacks to local terrorist cells, like those responsible for recent attacks in London, Madrid, Tokyo, and Malaysia.
Domestic Terrorism
The most difficult terrorism threat to contain comes from citizens of the United States within our borders. Over the past 10 years, the num- ber of actual and attempted bombings in the United States has quadrupled to more than 3,000 annually according to government reports. Bombings, even more than other security problems including a bomb hoax, can empty a building or entire business district for days. They can stop the flow of commerce on land, air, and sea and bring industry and government to a standstill. The continued sabotage of government and industry facili- ties and public areas and the threat of individual mail bombs and other bomb-threat situations clearly demonstrate the general vulnerability of a free society to terrorism.
Domestic terrorism is a separate and independent force that is difficult to distinguish from the foreign threat. Most domestic terrorists are “spe- cial-interest extremists” that may operate alone or as members of a small unit. Extremist and anarchist groups include militias, separatists, and numerous antigovernment organizations. Most encourage the massing of weapons, ammunition, and supplies to prepare for a confrontation with law enforcement. Some of these groups even view the overthrow of the federal government as their constitutional obligation. Independent groups further provide a formula for the spread of white supremacy, while others pursue antigovernment sentiments stemming from environmental issues, right to life, and the freedom of religion, speech, and the press regardless of whose inalienable rights they crush. [ 151