Volume 9, Number 4 (July 2022):3733-3743, doi:10.15243/jdmlm.2022.094.3733 ISSN: 2339-076X (p); 2502-2458 (e), www.jdmlm.ub.ac.id
Open Access 3733 Research Article
Geospatial modelling of the future urban expansion map using AHP and GIS in Bordj Bou Arreridj, Algeria
Hanane Boutaghane1*, Khalfallah Boudjemaa2, Salim Dehimi3
1 Department of Cities and Urban Environment, M'sila University, City, Environment, Society, and Sustainable Development Laboratory, Algeria
2 Department of City Management, M'sila University, Urban Technologies, and Environment Laboratory, Algeria
3 Department of Urban Engineering, M'sila University, Urban Technologies and Environment Laboratory, Algeria
*corresponding author: [email protected]
Abstract Article history:
Received 6 April 2022 Accepted 8 June 2022 Published 1 July 2022
The study aimed to determine the areas of future urban expansion in Bordj Bou Arreridj, Algeria, by using multi-criteria analysis for decision-making.
First, the future population was estimated to calculate the area we would need for the horizon of 2041AD. Second, criteria that contribute to determining the best areas for future expansion were selected based on recent research literature. Six factors were adopted: industrial areas, agricultural lands, urban areas, road network, slopes, and hydrographic network. Third, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to make a comparison of the previous standards and to extract the weights. Fourth, translating the results obtained in the (QGIS) program and extracting a digital map showing areas suitable for future urban expansion according to three classifications (high spatial suitability, acceptable, and low). The results showed that the areas with high spatial suitability it densely distributed in the northeastern and western directions with an area of 12.42 km² or 23%. It is considered an insufficient area to meet the future need of 2041 AD, which amounted to 14.20 km². Followed by areas with acceptable suitability distributed in four geographical directions, occupying an area of 15.67 km² or 35%, which is a sufficient area and can be placed as a balance to fill the deficit. While the areas with low suitability densely distributed in the east-west sides, with an area of 16.26 km² or 37%. The research proved that the integration between (AHP) and (GIS) technologies have an important role in helping decision-makers identify suitable areas for future expansion, reduce the problems of random urbanization and create a homogeneous sustainable environment. Urban development in the future.
Keywords:
Bordj Bou Arreridj GIS
hierarchical analysis process spatial modelling
spatial suitability urban expansion
To cite this article: Boutaghane, H., Boudjemaa, K. and Salim Dehimi, S. 2022.Geospatial modelling of the future urban expansion map using AHP and GIS in Bordj Bou Arreridj, Algeria. Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management 9(4):3733-3743, doi:10.15243/jdmlm.2022.094.3733.
Introduction
The rapid urban expansion of cities is a complex issue due to its economic, environmental, political, and social reflections (Ibimilua et al., 2020), and many studies have revealed that urban sprawl its main cause is urbanization. Ibimilua and Ibimilua (2020) saw that natural increase and migration of people from the countryside to the city. They are responsible for
urbanization (Ibimilua and Ibimilua, 2020).The world is becoming increasingly civilized (Olujimi, 2009), and the pace of urban growth is constantly accelerating. By 2050, two-thirds of the world's population is expected to live in urban areas (Abu Hatab et al., 2019), most of which will be in developing countries due to their accelerated urban growth, which has made them suffer. Of the problems
Open Access 3734 of its cities, such as slums and the inability of most
cities to provide the necessary services to their citizens, in addition to erosion and floods, its cities grow and expand beyond the control of planners (Olujimi, 2009). Rapid urban expansion is a growing phenomenon in Algeria since independence, and the situation worsened between 1990 and 2000. Where the country passed a period of instability, it made all inhabitants of isolated and insecure areas flee to urban areas close to them to provide security.
In late 1997, the city of Bordj Bou Arreridj created the industrial zone, and the city becomes economic qualifications and spotlight, and attracted the residents of the neighboring areas, leading to its rapid expansion. However, most time was an unreasonable and unplanned expansion. and it also did not take into consideration the evaluation of spatial suitability for urban expansion, which depends on defining different types of criteria with determining their weights and subjecting them to various treatments in the GIS environment to increase the possibility of choosing the most suitable areas for urban expansion (Hatif Mohammed and Yas Mnawer, 2021),
Many studies have been conducted on the evaluation of spatial suitability in various fields, as a study conducted in Poland about spatial suitability assessment for Photovoltaic development (Kolendo et al., 2019), and study comprehensive evaluation of the suitability of agricultural land (Changjun et al., 2018), evaluating the quality of life in an urban area (Dehimi and Hadjab, 2019). It is considered one of the most important and efficient techniques in determining the best sites for urban expansion, this is done by relying on different types of criteria (Aburas et al., 2016). A scientific method of assessing the suitability spatial for urban expansion in cities is proposed by integrating (AHP) and (GIS) techniques, wherein the beginning of the future population was estimated to calculate the space we need for 2041 DA. Which was estimated at 14.20 km², this process is comprised of several predetermined criteria, such as slope, urban area, road network, agricultural land, industrial areas, water resource (Park et al., 2010; Aburas et al., 2016;
Vandansambuu et al., 2020). Was created a geographical database for each criterion by using QGIS, as AHP technology for weights extracting was used. The consistency ratio CR = 0.002 was less than
<0.1, therefore ideal consistency, after that, the results were used in the (Q GIS) program to extract a digital map to suitable areas for urban expansion future in the city. The suitability map was divided into several classes, namely, high suitable, acceptable suitable and low suitable.
Given the worsening problems of urban growth in the world, many experts have presented studies on evaluating the spatial suitability of urban expansion;
for example, we found Aburas et al. (2016) used previous research and expert advice to determine the
criteria, they selected four major factors and 14 secondary factors to determine suitable sites for urban growth in Seremban, Malaysia. While we found a study of Abdelkarim et al., 2020, on land use suitability in the rural-urban continuum between Ar Riyadh and Al Kharj, where depends on 12 different economic, environmental, urban, and legal criteria.
Also, we found (Hatif Mohammed and Yas Mnawer, 2021) concluded six criteria from the study area and tried to redirect expansion and organize it towards the most suitable areas away from agricultural lands.
The main aim of the research was to determine suitable areas for future urban expansion by producing a digital map of the city of Bordj Bou Arreridj, to reduce not disciplined expansion.
Materials and Methods Study area
The city Bordj Bou Arreridj is one of the inner Algerian cities within the following geographical coordinates: between viewing circle: 36° 4' 00" north of the equator between line length: 4° 46' 00" east of Greenwich, is a transit station from east to west and north to south (Figure 1). The municipality of Bordj Bou Arreridj space is estimated at 81.1 km² and operated by 213.845 inhabitants, according to the Municipal Bureau of Statistics 2021.
Methods
Areas suitable for future urban expansion were identified using AHP and GIS software. GIS enables us to effectively deal with the storage and processing of all types of spatial and non-spatial data (Myagmartseren et al., 2017), with the ability of data layer management to make appropriate decisions by combining geographic information layers (Kazemi et al., 2016). The analytical hierarchy process was based on a comparison of relative importance between pairs of each factor (Suárez-Vega et al., 2011). Pairwise comparisons were based on a standardized comparison scale for the nine levels in Table 3 after estimating the future population to calculate the area we need for 2041 DA. The criteria for spatial suitability for urbanization were selected, and the selection included slope, urban area, road network, agricultural land, industrial areas, and water resources (Park et al., 2010;
Aburas et al., 2016; Vandansambuu et al., 2020). Then the criteria were compared and weights extracted based on AHP, in Table 4, and the results were put into open-source QGIS software to develop a digital map to show suitable areas for urbanization in the city.
1. Estimating the expected future population of Bordj Bou Arreridj for the target year 2041 AD:
The growth rate of previous years had been relied upon (2017-2021 DA). To estimate the future population (2021-2041 DA), the compound growth equation (1) (Hatif Mohammed and Yas Mnawer, 2021) was used.
Open Access 3735 Figure 1. Location of Bordj Bou Arreridj city.
The growth rate had been calculated to decrease at a rate of 0.01 every 10 years, according to United Nations estimates.
𝑃𝑓 = 𝑃𝑜 × (1 + 𝑟)^𝑛 (1) Pf : future population
Po : current population R : growth rate
N : the difference in the number of years for the present and the future.
Selected for every (10) years
We note from Table 1 that the population numbers will increase continuously to reach 343.634 people in the year 2041 AD at a constant growth rate of 2.4%, and will continue this increase at the same pace if the area has not been exposed to different conditions over time.
2. Estimating the future area even year 2041 AD:
First, the number of houses to be provided is calculated to note the average family size (5 persons /habitation), using the equation (2). Then the housing deficit is calculated using the equation (3). Then the area of the future needs is calculated, to note that the share of the space per person is estimated to 95 m²/persons using the equation (4) (Hatif Mohammed and Yas Mnawer, 2021), as follow:
o The number of houses to be provided = population/average family size (2) o The housing deficit = the number of housing units that exist – the number of housing units to be provided (3) o The area of the future need = the number of units required x the average family size x the share of the space per person (4)
Table 1. Forecasting the expected future population of Bordj Bou Arreridj for the year 2041 AD.
Current Population 2021 AD Future Population 2031 AD Future Population 2041 AD Population
numbers
Population growth rate %
Population numbers
Population growth rate %
Population numbers
Population growth rate %
213845 2.4 271080 2.4 343634 2.4
Source: The Statistics Office of Bordj Bou Arreridj city 2021.
Table 2. The future area to cover the population increase of Bordj Bou Arreridj for the year 2041 AD.
Future area 2031 AD (km²) Future area 2041 AD (km²)
7.67 14.20
Source: The Statistics Office of Bordj Bou Arreridj city 2021.
Open Access 3736 3. Factors affecting the urban expansion of Bordj
Bou Arreridj city.
Recent literature studies relied upon Park et al.
(2010), Al-sharif and Pradhan (2013), and Vandansambuu et al. (2020) to determine these
factors. Where we chose six criteria to determine the appropriate areas for future expansion in the city of Bordj Bou Arreridj, which are illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2. The criteria selected in the study.
4. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
The AHP process is considered one of the multi- criteria decision-making techniques, and Thomas L. Saaty has suggested it in the 20th century (Saaty, 1980). The program works to arrange tangible and intangible factors systematically (Awasth and Chauhan, 2011; Cheah et al., 2018).
See it as a quantitative method for evaluating and ranking the alternatives for a given target. Similar to Saaty (1980), it is “an integrated framework that combines substantive and non-substantive criteria”, the AHP program facilitates the process of determining the weights of factors that affect spatial suitability (Prakash, 2003). It is a technique that enables numerical evaluation of quantitative and qualitative factors and systematic analysis of complex problems within the structure of a hierarchy (Tülay and Cengiz, 2009). After creating a database for all the previously mentioned factors and performing the spatial analysis process for them, the role of the AHP comes to extract the weights for each of the studied factors through the following steps Analysis: AHP creates a hierarchical structure for a decision problem, consisting of three elements, i.e. the goal at the top of the hierarchical structure, a set of alternatives, and a set of criteria that link the alternatives to the goal (Saaty, 1990).
Prioritization: After the hierarchical structure was created, the relative importance of all decision elements was captured and detected through pairwise comparisons between the criteria within the same hierarchical level (Boulomytis et al., 2017). After that, the evaluation was carried out using a numerical scale ranging from 1 to 9, as suggested by Saaty (2008). In the pairwise comparisons of matrices (Saaty, 2008), a pairwise comparison was made then between the criteria of the same level (Hosseinali and Alesheikh, 2008), and finally, the weights were extracted. If the
consistency ratio value is CR <0.1, the consistency of the matrix is acceptable, and if the consistency ratio value is CR ≥0.1, the judgment must be re-implemented (Sun, 2020). Pairwise comparisons were based on a nine-level standardized comparison scale (Table 3).
Table 3. Reference scale by Saaty (2008).
Value Preference Level Numeric
1 Equal Preference
2 Weak or Slight Preference
3 Moderate Preference
4 Moderate plus Preference
5 Strong Preference
6 Strong plus Preference 7 Very Strong Preference 8 Very, Very Strong Preference
9 Absolute Preference
Source: Saaty (2008).
Supposing C = {Cj / j = 1, 2 . . . n} is the set of criteria, the consequence of the pairwise comparison on criteria can be shortened in an (n × n) evaluation matrix equations (5) (Dehimi, 2021), wherein each element (a ij = 1. 2 ...n) is the part of criteria weights.
𝐴 =
𝑎 𝑎 ⋯ 𝑎
𝑎 𝑎 … 𝑎
⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮
𝑎 𝑎 ⋯ 𝑎
, 𝑎 = 1 , 𝑎 =
, 𝑎 ≠ 0 (5) Normalization is based on the mathematical procedure and that for each matrix there are relative weights. The right eigenvector (W) gives the relative weights corresponding to the biggest eigenvalue (λmax) as in equations (6) (Dehimi 2021).
Open Access 3737 𝐴 = λ max 𝑊 (6)
As long as the pairwise comparisons are very consistent, the matrix “A” has rank 1 and λmax = n. therefore, through normalizing any of the rows or columns, weights can be attained.
Hence, the quality of AHP results is related to the consistency of pairwise comparison judgments.
The relation between the admissions of defines the consistency: A: aij × ajk = aik. Accordingly, the consistency index (CI) is equations (7) (Abdelkarim et al., 2020).
𝐶𝐼 = (λ max −𝑛) / (𝑛 − 1) (7) The consistency ratio (CR) is calculated as the ratio of the (CI) divided by the random index (RI), as shown in equations (8) (Abdelkarim et al., 2020).
𝐶𝑅 = 𝐶𝐼/𝑅𝐼 (8)
If the consistency ratio value is under 0.1 or 10%, the consistency is acceptable, but if the CR value exceeds 0.1 more than 10%, the consistency is inconsistent, the procedure is repeated (Romano et al., 2015).
5. Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
It is part of analytical modelling and is considered an open-source system that analyses, processes, and transmits information in an easy way (Garbin and Fisher, 2010). QGIS software can work with different web servers and spatial data (Khamitova et al., 2020). These data are digital objects that can be identified by their geometric properties (spatial location), attributes, and topology (Rogers and Staub, 2013).
Figure 3. The analysis procedure followed for this research.
Results and Discussion Criteria maps
After collecting spatial information for each criterion, it was analysed and processed by QGIS software, and each criterion was treated in terms of improving or decreasing spatial suitability.Where we found:
Proximity to the urban area: The proximity to the urban area contributes to linking the city to its current borders. In addition to reducing the economic cost of
localizing infrastructures, such as an extension of the road network, electricity, gas, and water, as the near areas were given the highest rating value 5, as for the distant areas, it got the lowest rating, which is 1.
Proximity to the road network: The road network is a vital part of any city, it is considered its artery and cannot interact with each other without this network city. On this basis, the road network in Bordj Bou Arreridj city was evaluated according to the spatial dimension, as the near areas were given the highest
Open Access 3738 rating value 5, as for the distant areas, it got the lowest
rating, which is 1.
Dimension from agricultural land: The loss of agricultural land is one of the most important factors affecting food security (Shi et al., 2016), Bordj Bou Arreridj is among the cities whose agricultural lands are being violated, and this requires its preservation and gives it a priority in the exclusion of urban expansion on it to ensure its sustainability.
Accordingly, the lowest value for classification 1 was given to land near agricultural land, and the highest
value of classification 5 for lands far from it, and that is to ensure there is no expansion on it.
Dimension from industrial areas: Despite the prominent role that industrial areas play in the development of human society, expansion near it is not suitable due to waste from noise and pollution of air, soil, and water. The city of Bordj Bou Arreridj contains an industrial pole that has many factories of a national dimension, hence, the areas closest to the industrial area got with the lowest classification, which is 1, while areas far got the highest rating, which is 5.
Figure 4. Urban area.
Figure 5. Road network.
Open Access 3739 Figure 6. Agricultural land.
Figure 7. Industrial areas.
Slope: The areas with slight slopes are good for the settlement of different land uses (residential, industrial, commercial, and services), for its reasonable economic cost. While we find that areas with large slopes are difficult to expand towards, thus, the areas with a slight slope were given the highest rating value, which is 5, as for the areas with a large slope, it took the lowest classification value, which is 1.
Dimension on water resources: A dense network of water resources, which makes it vulnerable to flooding, characterizes Bordj Bou Arreridj city;
therefore, the areas near them are considered unsuitable for expansion; accordingly, the areas close to the water resources got the lowest rating, which is 1, while the far areas got the highest evaluation score, which is 5.
Open Access 3740 Figure 8. Slope.
Figure 9. Water resources.
The results obtained by the AHP method
Hierarchical analysis was used to extract the weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison of criteria of the same hierarchical level. Select Saaty, the consistency ratio value, if it was CR<10%, the consistency is acceptable. However, if it was CR≥10%, the consistency is inconsistent. The procedure must be
repeated and the preference revised (Saaty, 2008). We note from Table 4, that the Consistency ratio (CR = 0.002) was less than (0.1) of the values of Saaty (2008), at the hierarchical level of AHP, which meant that weight distribution between factors had a high level of precision and showed ideal consistency. The results of the pairwise comparison appear in Table 4.
Open Access 3741 That the dimension from the industrial areas occupied
the highest ratio of 37.6% because its proximity threatens human health. After that, the dimension from agricultural land and proximity to the urban area ranked the same rank a ratio of 20.6%, followed by proximity to the road network a ratio of 10.3%, then slope factor and dimension from water resources a ratio of 5.4% for both of them.
Final spatial suitability map
After extracting the weights from the AHP process, it was used in the spatial analysis in the GIS program.
Gave results that reflected the presence of 3 classifications of land types: high spatial suitability, acceptable and low. The area of each type was also extracted, as shown in the map and Table 5.
Table 4. Results of AHP comparison between standards.
Rank Weights Water
Resources Slope
Road Network Industrial
Areas Agricultural
Lands Urban
Area
2 0.206 4
4 2
1/2 1
Urban Area
2 0.206 4
4 2
1/2 Agricultural Lands
1 0.376 6
6 4
Industrial Areas
4 0.103 2
2 Road Network
5 0.54 1
Slope
5 0.54 Water Resources
λmax = 6.0138 CI = 0.0028 RCI = 1.24 CR = 0.00221
Figure 10. Map of spatial suitability for urban expansion in Bordj Bou Arreridj.
Table 5. Percentage of AHP scale of spatial suitability of urban expansion in Bordj Bou Arreridj
Classes Area km² %
1 High spatial suitability 12.42 28%
2 Acceptable spatial
suitability 15.67 35%
3 Low spatial suitability 16.26 37%
High suitability spatial: It is densely distributed in the northeastern and western directions, with 12.42 km²
i.e. 28%. When comparing these areas with the maps of the influencing factors prepared in advance, we note that they are considered suitable areas for expansion due to their excellent location, The islands are almost flat and therefore, it is easy to expand networks on them. It is also far from industrial areas and flood hazards. But is considered an area insufficient to meet the future need for the year 2041 AD, estimated at 14.20 km².
Acceptable suitability spatial: It spreads widely in the northeastern and western parts and occupies an
Open Access 3742 area of 15.67 km², i.e. 35%. When comparing these
areas with the maps of influencing factors prepared previously, we note it is far from industrial areas and agricultural lands, which enhances its role in preserving agricultural lands and not expanding at its expense. In addition, it is far from the danger of flooding. And it has enough space that it can be placed as a balance to plug the deficit.
Low suitability spatial: It is widely distributed in the northeastern and southern directions. It occupies a large area estimated at 16.26 km², i.e. 37%. When comparing these areas with the maps of the influential criteria, we note that their location is not suitable for expansion because most of their lands are located within agricultural lands in addition to their proximity to flood risks, which prevents their expansion.
Conclusion
In this research, a scientific approach was proposed to assess the spatial suitability of urban expansion in Bordj Bou Arreridj. By combining GIS and AHP technologies. Their integration allowed the production of a digital map of the best suitable sites for urban expansion in three classifications (high, acceptable, and low appropriate). It was found through the results that the best suitable areas for expansion are less than the required area, so we take the rest of the area needed for expansion from the areas acceptable for expansion.
Thus, the study proved the effectiveness of the coupling between AHP and GIS in helping decision- makers in developing many scenarios for urban expansion and choosing the appropriate areas for that.
In addition to providing many solutions that ensure the orderly and balanced development of the city.
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