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FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEBERHASILAN REDENOMINASI MATA UANG: PENDEKATAN DATA HISTORIS DAN PERCOBAAN

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Nguyễn Gia Hào

Academic year: 2023

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Furthermore, if a country continuously experiences high inflation every year, the value of the currency will be lower compared to the goods (Amir, 2011). This investigation aims to observe the factors that contribute to the success of currency redenomination. We will further investigate the effects of the subjects' behavior in order to see the economic performance (kinerja ekonomika).

The result of the study revealed that the long-term impacts of redenomination: 1) public trust foundation to domestic currency;. The secondary data was collected from. the publications of World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Center for Systemic Peace.

Experiment Simulation Design

This t-test employment is beneficial in showing which independent variable has the greatest influence on the dependent variable. The unit costs of the sellers will form a theoretical supply curve, and the unit values ​​of the buyers in each experimental group will also form a theoretical demand curve. In the trial simulation, it was determined that the economic subjects were 14 people consisting of seven sellers and seven buyers.

In the trial simulation, it was determined that the financial subjects were 10 people consisting of five sellers and five buyers. High inflation was described by higher unit costs compared to the low inflation treatment group. This high inflation was explained by lower unit costs compared to the high inflation treatment group.

Based on the observed responses, the experiment instructions in the study referenced Juanda's research (2000) in the form of buy and sell transactions elastic to price, with the posted supply-market system. Simulation of economic experiments was thus based on the theory of induced value, in which the use of the right and real stimulus would allow the subject to bring out (induced) certain characteristics in accordance with the purpose of the experiment. Before each repetition, each participant had to record every transaction they made during the experiment period on the decision sheet.

In the first iteration, buyers would be separated from sellers, with buyers leaving the space.

Uji Beda ( Mean Difference Testing for two independent populations)

In this case, Sg was declared as the combined variance of sample 1 and variance of sample 2. The direction of rejecting the null hypothesis is in the same direction as the research hypothesis, as follows. In addition to using Tcalc, the rule to decide whether it is significant or not in the conditions being compared is whether the probability value (p-value) is less than the significance level or the significance level is 10% (α=0.1).

If so, i.e. between those two different conditions, the observed responses are significantly or significantly different.

RESULT AND ANALYSIS

Factors Determining the Success of Currency Redenomination: Historical Data Approach to 30 Countries

  • Inflation Rate a Year After Redenomination
  • Economic Growth a Year After Redenomination

Based on Table 3, it can be seen that R2 for inflation rate model one year after redenomination was 99.0%, it meant that 99.0% of the inflation rate variable one year after redenomination could be explained by all independent variables in the model. The significant variables affecting inflation one year after redenomination with probability value below the 10% significance level were the economic growth in the year of redenomination implementation (GRO) and the growth in money in circulation in the same year (MON). The better the economic growth in the implementation year, the lower inflation will be in the following year.

Regression model for the economic growth one year after redenomination had R2 value equal to 40.4%, which means that the total variance in the data was explained by 40.4%, while the rest was explained by factors outside the model. F statistical test in this model could be seen from Prob (F-stat) equal to 0.083, it meant that the four independent variables significantly affected the economic growth in the year after redenomination simultaneously in the 10% confidence level. In the regression model for the economic growth in the year after redenomination, the dummy variable for the inflation rate (Dlowinflation) had a coefficient value of 3.62.

This meant that a country with low inflation when redenomination was implemented tended to have higher economic growth in the year after redenomination compared to countries with high inflation. The only significant variable that affected economic growth in the year after redenomination was the growth of the year when redenomination was implemented. The higher the economic growth was, the higher the growth would be in the following year.

Meanwhile, other variables did not significantly influence economic growth one year after implementation.

Experiment Simulation Result of Posted Offer Market Transaction System Causality direction between currency redenomination and economic condition is hard to

  • The Implication of Redenomination Policy Towards the Change of Selling Price in the Posted Offer Market System
  • The Redenomination Policy Implication Towrds Transaction ammount change in Posted Offer Market System
  • The Implication of Redenomination Policy towards the Change of Transaction Value in Posted Offer Market System

In the table it can generally be seen that from all the different conditions, the sale price after redenomination in the low inflation condition either when it was combined with economic growth or when it was not, decreased or the change was negative in value. Next, in Table 4, from the mean of difference test, it could be seen that the difference in the change of selling price after redenomination is only significant in the condition of low inflation and high inflation. In the condition of low inflation, the price change after redenomination decreases in the amount of 0.456 percent.

From this result, it can be seen that the redenomination policy would be better if implemented when the economy was in low inflation compared to high. In the experiment's simulation of buying and selling rice, the sellers used redenomination to change the price lower or higher than before. In the low inflation treatment (low unit cost) group, sellers' price change tended to be 2-3% lower compared to before redenomination, although there was a price increase, but the increase was only about 1%.

Meanwhile, in the group with high inflation treatment (high unit costs), if redenomination were implemented, most sellers would change the price by 1-4% higher compared to before redenomination. 3 In the experimental simulation, economic growth was reflected in the total number of sellers and buyers involved in the market of rice goods. In high economic growth, the economic entity in the market is 40% higher compared to low growth.

Nevertheless, it should be noted here that in either low or high growth, currency redenomination resulted in the selling price of rice commodity continuing to increase, 0.195 and 0.607% for each. Nevertheless, this fact indicates that if redenomination is used while experiencing high inflation and high economic growth at the same time, there is a tendency for sellers to raise the price in anticipation of perception bias or money illusion in the buyers. It can be found that the redenomination policy has a different impact on individual sellers, depending on their characteristics before redenomination, whether they belong to the high-inflation group or the low-inflation group.

People’s Perspective Towards The Redenomination Policy

  • Redenominasi The Governmen’s Ability to Control Inflation Post- Redenomination
  • Consumption Pattern Change Post-Redenomination
  • Rupiah’s Exchange Rate Reinforcement Post-Redenomination

Respondents who do not believe that the government is controlling post-redenomination inflation argued that the economic situation in Indonesia is not yet ready to face the redenomination policy due to the lack of public outreach and education about the policy and the lack of introduction of a new type of currency for the society. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the redenomination policy will also have a psychological effect, especially low confidence in the government for economic improvement. While the respondents who believe that the government can control inflation after the redenomination argued that the redenomination of the rupiah will not significantly affect the Indonesian economy, namely the inflation rate.

It is argued that the controllable rate of inflation by the government has nothing to do with the redenomination policy. However, from the survey of 168 respondents, it turns out that only 38.10 percent think that it is better to buy real assets after the rebranding, as shown in chart 5 below. While the majority of 59.52% tend to choose not to change their consumption pattern, this is due to the fact that the renaming will only change the nominal writing of a currency, so that the prices of goods will not change significantly.

Several respondents who chose to buy more real assets after the redenomination stated that the price of real assets like gold will psychologically look cheaper. The redenomination policy by removing 3 digits in the rupiah currency is mainly to give the effect that the rupiah is equal or even stronger than other currencies as the rupiah is now the third country with the highest exchange rate. The interview result for 168 respondents shows that 37 respondents answered that the redenomination policy will not strengthen the value of the rupiah as the exchange rate (appreciation and depreciation) will be more affected by other factors outside the change of the currency's face value, mainly by remittance scale (neraca pembayaran).

Meanwhile, as many as 33% percent of respondents replied that the redenomination policy will strengthen the rupiah's face value, the reason is that the rupiah's face value will approach that of US dollars, so the rupiah will appear stronger than before and confidence of society in rupiah.

CONCLUSION

Based on the result of an experiment regarding rice transactions in the post-tender market system, the increase or decrease in price after redenomination was significantly affected by the condition of the inflation rate along with it. On the contrary, the selling price will fall when redenomination is used during low inflation. From the result, it can be concluded that the redenomination policy under different economic conditions does not significantly affect the change of the total number of transactions and the total transaction that took place in the market.

However, if the economic condition is ignored, redenomination will commonly cause sales price increase, decrease in the total number of transactions and decrease in transaction value. The survey showed that most of the respondents do not believe that the government could control inflation after redenomination. Redenomination will neither affect the consumption pattern of society nor do they believe that redenomination will strengthen the rupee's exchange rate.

From the research result, the important factor in the implementation of redenomination is the economic condition during that time. It will be better if the redenomination is used during a stable and good economic condition, such as low inflation and high economic growth. Public dissemination of the redenomination policy to society should be done earlier intensively and consistently in order to provide clear information to the public about the policy.

The next studies are expected to expand the coverage of response influence and add other factors so that they can provide a more vivid picture of the redenomination policy towards economy.

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