The initial goal of this study was to determine which counties contributed the most to the firearms trafficking route between Mississippi and Chicago, Illinois, and to understand what sociodemographic characteristics might distinguish those counties from their counterparts with less traffic. To address any avenue of firearms trafficking, law enforcement agencies must understand the underlying causes and enabling factors. Initial studies of Mississippi counties showed trends in median household income, poverty and racial disparities.
These trends were compared to high-trafficking counties in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin to determine whether sociodemographic factors associated with firearms trafficking are state-specific or may be reflected across the country. While population size did not appear to be related to the Mississippi firearms trade, the counties of the three northern states of interest appeared to be around cities, so. The results of this study identify counties of interest with high numbers of dealers in Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin and show that (a) high rates of poverty appear to be associated with firearms trafficking in each of the four states (b) Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Wisconsin counties of interest are located in the heart of urban areas, (c) there appears to be a trend of high racial disparity with high gun trafficking rates only in Mississippi; and (d) high average household income appears to be associated.
Wisconsin, with a low median household income likely related in Mississippi, and no obvious trends in Illinois and Indiana.
Introduction to the Study
The remaining top four source counties, Marion, Allen, Cass and Hendricks, are located in the middle of the state. Marion and Hendricks counties are home to the Indianapolis area and the majority of the largest municipalities in the state. Since at least 2000, nine of the ten counties of interest have had higher poverty rates than the state as a whole by up to 23 points.
According to the 2010 Census, six of the 10 counties of interest had a poverty rate 0.8 to 7.9 points higher than the state average. Of the remaining 92 counties, 45 had a poverty rate above the state average, with the highest being Jackson County in the southwestern tip of the state. In the other half of the state, poverty rates were below average, as high as 3.9% in Kendall County.
Of the nine counties of interest, six were included in the higher poverty group with rates ranging from 13.7% to 17.3%. In 2010, three of the four states of interest for high firearms trafficking had poverty rates at or above the national average. Of the remaining 68 counties, 32 had a higher poverty rate than the state, with Sawyer having the highest rate at 20.1% in northwest Wisconsin.
In 2010, nine of Mississippi's ten counties of interest and more than half of the remaining counties were above the state average poverty rate of 21.2%. Three of Wisconsin's four counties of interest and 47% of the remaining were above the 2010 state average of 11.6%. Each of the nine counties of interest with an income below the state median also suffered poverty rates above the state average.
Lake, Du Page, Will and Kankakee are four interesting counties whose median household income is much higher than the state income. Each of the four interesting districts increased the number of inhabitants by 0.8% to 14.4% in ten years. Interestingly, the three northern states are among the largest in terms of population in each state.
Additionally, half of the high trafficking counties (Yazoo, Madison, Grenada, Clay, Washington) had a lower percentage of people ages 18-24 than the state average at 8.6-9.5% of the. Other provinces with more men than women are clustered in the far north and far south regions of the state. Illinois' rural high-trafficking locations reflect a trend toward urban areas, as they fall in the most populated parts of the state (Map 20).
Wisconsin's interesting, high-traffic counties are clustered in the densely populated southeastern part of the state north of Chicago in the Milwaukee area.
Review of Literature
Research Design and Methodology …
The sample population for this study includes county-level sociodemographic data for Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin obtained from the 2000 and 2010 United States Censuses and data from the 2012 American Community Survey. The three remaining states with the highest rates of firearm trafficking of guns into Chicago between 2001 and 2012—Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin—were analyzed to address the utility of trends relevant to the firearms trade in Mississippi. Based on the initial observations of this study of firearms trafficking from Mississippi to Chicago, poverty, median household income, and race appear to be most strongly associated with high levels of trafficked firearms exports at the county level.
The poverty rates and median household income levels varied more in Mississippi between 2000 and 2010 both geographically and in their relationship to each other. Since these differences are potentially more influential on gun trafficking than race alone, their values were collected for Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin from both 2000 and 2010. Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin were evaluated based on trends observed in Mississippi to either validate their influences on firearms trafficking or to determine differences in each state.
Mississippi Research – Gender, age, and the number of federal firearms license holders (FFLs) per county did not appear to be related to firearms trafficking at the county level and were therefore not addressed in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin. Although it does not appear to be connected in Mississippi, population has been recorded for Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin, as the counties with high trafficking for these three northern states gravitate around metropolitan areas. Indiana and Wisconsin both fall between Mississippi and Illinois in terms of gun laws, further suggesting that these laws may be less impactful than intended in terms of preventing gun trafficking from each state.
Census demographic data were collected from 2000 and 2010 as aggregate county-level firearms tracking data that provided the inspiration for this research. Since the Census is conducted every 10 years, the 2000 and 2010 information is the most relevant for the data time period. Census data from 2000 and 2010 were collected for Mississippi at the county level for population demographics of age, sex, and race.
Like the Mississippi data, the 2000 and 2010 census demographics are most relevant to the firearm recovery dataset's 2001-2012 period. Poverty rates, median household income levels, and population were collected from both the 2000 and 2010 censuses for all of Illinois, Indiana, and. January 2014 was selected as it is the oldest public listing for FFLs at the county level.
Analysis of Data
The remaining county, Madison, has had poverty rates below the state average by 5.9-8.2 points since at least 2000. Du Page, Will, Lake and Kane counties represent the counties of interest with poverty rates at least 3.5 points below the state average. Hendricks, Porter and Allen counties each had poverty rates at least 1.2 points below the state average.
Six of Illinois' ten counties of interest and 49% of its remaining counties were above the state average of 12.6% in 2010. One county of interest, Madison, and 17 others had median household incomes above the state average by 2010 Hendricks, Porter, Lake and Allen counties are the four counties of interest with median household incomes higher than the state.
Joseph, La Porte and Elkhart are the remaining four counties of interest whose median household income is below the state median. Twenty counties, including three counties of interest, earned median household income up to $23,398 above the state rate. Dane, Kenosha and Racine counties are the three interesting counties with median household income above the state.
Milwaukee is the only county of interest with a median household income below the national average at $43,215. The same nine out of ten Mississippi counties of interest that had poverty rates above the national average had median household incomes below the national average. The four interesting Illinois counties with below-state median household incomes were also the same four with higher poverty rates.
Four of Indiana's nine counties of interest and three of Wisconsin's four had median household incomes above the state average. The other 85 counties reported an average white population higher than the state average by at least 1.9 points. Mississippi's ten counties of interest have more than 52,000 people, while the remaining counties in the state range from 1,406 to 187,105.
Conclusions, Implications, and Future Research
Mississippi Traces
Illinois Traces
Indiana Traces
Wisconsin Traces
Mississippi Poverty
Illinois Poverty
Indiana Poverty
Wisconsin Poverty
Mississippi Income
Mississippi Income and Poverty (ASC 2012 Estimates)
Illinois Income
Indiana Income
Wisconsin Income
Mississippi Race (2000)
Mississippi Race (2010)
Illinois Race
Indiana Race
Wisconsin Race
Mississippi Population
Illinois Population
Indiana Population
Wisconsin Population
