182
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Abdel Hamed, H.T, Wenlong.W, Qiaomin, L, 2020, Environmental sensitivity of flash food hazard using geospatial techniques, Global J.Environ.Sci.Manage 6(1):
34-46. https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2020.01.03
Adibroto. T.A., Purwanta.W.,Oktovia.R., Erowati.D.A.,Suryanto.F., Sudaryono, Nugroho.R., Hartaya, Rini.S.D., 2011, Iptek Untuk Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim:
Kajian Kebutuhan Tema Riset Prioritas, Jakarta:Dewan Riset Nasional, www.drn.go.id
Afed Ullah. K., Jiang. J., Wang. P., 2018, Land use impacts on surface water quality by statistical approaches. Global J.Environ. Sci.Manage.,4(2):231-250.
https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2018.04.02.010.
Agus.F., Santosa.I., Dewi.S, Setyanto.P., Thamrin.S., Wulan.Y.C., Suryaningrum.F.
(eds), 2013, Pedoman Teknis Penghitungan Baseline Emisi dan Serapan Gas Rumah Kaca Sektor Berbasis Lahan. Buku I Landasan Ilmiah, Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional Republik Indonesia, Jakarta
Aida.S.N, Utomo.A.D, 2016, Assessment of Water Quality for Fisheries in Rawa Pening Center of Java, BAWAL 8(3).
http://ejournal-balitbang.kkp.go.id/index.php/bawal.
Ali, A.M., Shafee, M.E., Berglund, E.Z., 2017. Agent-based modeling to simúlate the dynamics of urban wáter supply: Climate, population growth, and wáter shortage. Sustainable Cities Soc., 28: 420-434
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221067071630453X?via%3 Dihub.
183 Alifujiang.Y, Abuduwaili.J, Ma.L, Samat.A, Groll.M, 2017, System Dynamics
Modeling of Water Level Variations of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan, Water 9, 989; http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w9120989. , www.mpdi.com/journal/water Alighalehbabakhani.F, Miller.C.J, Baskaran.M, Selegan.J.P, Barkach.J.H, Dahl.T,
Abkenar.S.M.S, 2017, Forecasting the remaining reservoir capacity in the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, Journal of Hydrology 555, 926-937.
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.052.
Al-Saffar.A, Kim.E-j, 2017, Sustainable theory of a logistic model-Fisher information approach, Mathematical Biosciences 285:81-91.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.12.009.
Al-Nur.B.A, Quicksall.A.N, Al-Anshari.A.M.A, 2017, Spatial dan temporal distribution oh heavy metals in coastal core sediments from the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, Oceanologia 59, 262-270.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2017.03.003 .
Anand. V, Oinam.B, 2019, Future climate change impact on hydrological regime of river basin using SWAT model, Global J.Environ.Sci.Manage 5(4):471-484.
https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2019.04.07
Araujo.J.C, Guntner.A, Bronstert.A, 2006, Loss of reservoir volume by sediment deposition and its impact on water availability in semiarid Brazil, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51:1, 157-170. https://doi,org/10.1623/hysj.51.1.157
Arjanto. D, Riana. F., 2021, Fakta-fakta Banjir Bandang di Perkebunan Teh Gunung Mas Puncak Bogor, Tempo.Co, 20 Januari 2021.
184 https://metro.tempo.co/read/1424846/fakta-fakta-banjir-bandang-di-
perkebunan-teh-gunung-mas-puncak-bogor/full&view=ok (diakses 22 Januari 2021).
Armenteras.D, Espelta.J.M, Rodriguez.N, Retana.J, 2017, Deforestation dynamics and drivers in different forest types in Latin America: Three decades of studies (180-2010), Global Environmental Change 46:139-147.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.002.
Aronica.G.T., Candela.A, 2007 , Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model, Journal of Hydrology 347:132-142.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hydrol.2007.09.011
Arsyad.K.M, 2017, Modul Opearsi Waduk: Pelatihan Alokasi Air, Pusat Pendidikan dan Pelatihan Sumber Daya Air dan Konstruksi, Kementerian PUPR.
Asadi.S, Shahrabi.J, Abbaszadeh.P, Tabanmehr.S, 2013, A new hybrid artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff process modeling, Neurocomputing 121: 470- 480. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2013.05.023.
Asfaw.A, Simane.B, Hassen.A, Bantider.A, 2018, Variability and time series analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin, Weather and Climate Extremes 19:29-41.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.12.002
Aydin.E, Antal.J, 2019, Introduction to Precipitation Runoff Process and Soil Erosion Risk Analysis in a Specific Area of Interest to design Control Measures, Journal of Ecological Engineering 20 (2):44-50.
185 https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/94921
Ayivi.F, Jha M.J, 2018, EstiFork-Buffalomation of water balance and water yield in the Reedy Fork-Buffalo Creek Watershed in North Carolina using SWAT, Internasional Soil and Water Conservation Research x, xxx-xxx.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr2018.03.007
Barrow, C.J, 2006, Environmental Management for Sustainable Development, Second Ed, New York:The Taylor and e-Library,
Batista.M, 2020, Estimation of the final size of coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model, ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339240777.
Bhatnagar.S., Karmeshu, 2011, Monte-Carlo estimation of time-dependent statistical characteristics of random dynamical systems, Applied Mathematical Modelling 35:3063-3079. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2010.12.024
BBWS Pemali Juana, 2014, Laporan Analisa Hidrologi: Detail Desain Rehabilitasi Daerah Irigasi Gembong (4.606 ha) Kabupaten Pati.
BBWS Pemali Juana, 2015a, Laporan Evaluasi dan Analisis Instrumentasi:
Pemeriksaan Besar Bendungan Gembong
BBWS Pemali Juana, 2015b, Rencana Pengelolaan Bendungan Gembong, Laporan Interim Pemeriksaan Besar Bendungan Gembong tahun 2015
Berg.A, de Noblet-Ducoudre.N, Sultan.B, Lengaigne.M, Guimberteadu.M, 2013, Projections of climate change impacts on potensial C4 crop productivity over tropical regions, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170:89-102.
https://doi/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003
186 BioMath, 2005, Newton’s law of Cooling, The Biology Project
Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biophysics The University of Arizona.
http://www.biology.arizona.edu/biomath/tutorials/applications/cooling.html (diakses 8 Februari 2021).
Bodoque.J.M, Diez-Herrero.A, Amerigo.M, Garcia.J.A, Olcina.J, 2019, Enhancing flash flood risk perception and awarereness of mitigation actions through risk communication: A pre-post survey design, Journal of Hydrology 568:769-779, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.007
Bonacci, O.; Roje-Bonacci, T., 2008. Water losses from the Recice reservoir built in the Dinaric Karst. Eng.Geol.,99:121-127.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013795208000318 . Botkin.D.B., Keller.E.A., 2003, Environmental Science: Earth as a living planet,
United States of America: John Wiley & Sons.Inc.
Bradley.D.M, 2000, Verhulst’s Logistic Curve, The College Mathematics Journal.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2687113.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2431760
Brilhante, M.F., Gomes,M.I., Pestana.D, 2019, Modeling Risk of Extreme Events in Generalized Verhulst Models, REVSTAT-Statistical Journal 17(2):145-162.
AMS Subject Classification: 60G70, 92D25.
Brooks.E.S, Dobre.M, Elliot.W.J, Wu.J.Q, Boll.J, 2016, Watershed-scale evaluation of the water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model in the lake Tahoe basin, Journal of Hydrology 533:389-402.
187 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.004.
Chanda.K, Maity.R, 2015, Meteorological drought quantification with standardized precipitation anomaly index for the regions with strongly seasonal and periodic precipitation, J. Hydrol. Eng. https://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943- 5584.0001236.
Chen.J., Shao.C., Jiang.S.,Qu.L., Zhao.F, Dong.G., 2019, Effects of changes in precipitation energy and water balance in a Eurasian meadow steppe, Ecological Prosesses 8:17. https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13717-019-0170-z.
Chen.R.J.C, Blomfield. P, Cubbage.F.W, 2008, Comparing Forecasting Models in Touris, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research, 32(1).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1096348007309566.
Chong.O.A.G, Diniz.G.L, Villatoro.F.R, 2005, Dispersal of fish population in dams:
modeling and simulation, Ecological Modelling 186:290-298.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.11.025
Cortes.E, 2016, Review:Perspectives on the intrinsic rate of population growth, Methods in Ecology and Evolution 7:1136–1145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041- 210X.12592
Cotter.M, Berkhoff.K, Gibreel.T, Ghorbani.A, Golbon.R, Nuppenau.E.A, Sauerborn, 2016, Designing a sustainable land use scenario based on a combination of ecological assessments and economic optimization, Ecological Indicators 36:779- 787. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.01.017
188 Dai.J, Song.J, Li.X, Yuan.H, Li.N, Zheng.G, 2007, Environmental changes reflected
by sedimentary geochemistry in recent hundred years of Jiaozhou Bay, North China, Environmental Pollution 145:656-667.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2006.10.005
Desta.H, Lemma.B, Gebremarian.E, 2017a, Identifying sustainability challengs on land and water uses: The case of Lake Ziway waterland, Ethiopia, Applied Geography 88:130-143. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.09.005
Desta.H, Lemma.B, 2017b, SWAT based hydrological assessment and characterization of Lake Ziway sub-watersheds, Ethiopia, Journal of Hydrology:
Regional Studies 13:122-137.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh2017.08.002.
Departemen Permukiman dan Prasarana Wilayah, 2004, Pedoman konstruksi dan bangunan: Instrumentasi tubuh bendungan tipe urugan dan tanggul, Kep.Men Permukiman dan Prasarana Wilayah No 360/KPTS/M/2004 tanggal 1 Oktober 2004.
Departemen Pekerjaan Umum (DPU), 2008, Upaya Departemen Pekerjaan Umum dalam Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim di Wilayah Pesisir dan Pulau-pulau kecil, Workshop Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Kenaikan Paras Muka Air laut akibat Perubahan Ikilm terhadap Pesisir dan Pulau-pulau kecil, Jakarta
Deputi Bidang Sumber Daya Alam & Lingkungan Hidup Bappenas, 2008, Perencanaan Pembangunan Terakit dengan Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim dalam RPJMN 2010-2014, Workshop: Adaptasi & Mitigasi Kenaikan Muka
189 Air Laut akibat Perubahan Iklim di Wilayah Pesisir dan Pulau-pulau Kecil, Jakarta.
Dinas PSDA Propinsi Jawa Tengah, 2007, Laporan Pemantauan dan Evaluasi Pemberdayaan Masyarakat sekitar Waduk Gembong tahun 2007. website:
www.psdajateng.go.id
Direktur Jenderal Sumber Daya Air, 2018, FGD pada Hari Air Dunia XXVI tahun 2018 di Semarang pada tanggal 6 April 2018
Djebou.D.C.S, 2018, Assessment of sediment inflow to a reservoir using the SWAT model under undammed conditions: A case for the Somerville Reservoir, Texas, USA, International Soil and Water Conservation Research x, xxx-xxx, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2018.03.003.
Dutriman.G.E, Vuta.L.I, Piraianu.V.F, Dragoi.C 2017, A mathematical model of a shallow abd eutrophic lake (Stiucii-Romania), Energy Procedia 112:92-99.
http://creativecommons.org./licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Editorial, 2015, Use of ecological indicator in models, Ecological Modelling 295:1- 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.10.016.
Ehsani.N, Vorosmarty.C.J, Fekete.B.M, Stakhiv.E.Z, 2017, Reservoir operations undrr climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk, Journal oh Hydrology 555:435-446. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.008.
Eshghizadeh. M, Talebi. A, Dastorani. M.T., Azimzadeh. H.R., 2016, Effect of natural land covers on runoff and soil loss at the hill-slope scale, Global J.Environ.
Sci.Manage.,2(2):125-134.
https://dx.doi.org/10.7508/gjesm.2016.02.003
190 Eubank.R.L, 1999, Nonparametric Regression and Spline Smoothing, Boca
Raton:CRC Press, ISBN: 9780429182679
Ezenwaji EE, Nzolwu CP, Chima GN, 2016, Analysis of Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) for Awka Urban Area, Nigeria, Hydrology Current Research, 8:4.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7587.1000287.
Farajzadeh. J, Fard.A.F, Lothi.S, 2014, Modeling of monthly rainfall and runoff of Urnia lake basin using “feed=forward neural network” and “time series analysis”
model, Water Resources and Industry 7-8:38-48.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wri.2014.10.003
FAO, 2020, Integrated agriculture water management and health, Rome. ISBN: 978- 92-5-132444-8 . https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8712en.
Forni.L.G, Medellin-Azuara.J, Tansey.M, Young.C, Purkey.D, Howitt.R, 2016, Integrating complex economic and hydrologic planning models:An application for drought under climate change analysis, Water Resources and Conomics 16:
15-27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2016.10.002
Fowe.T, Karambiri.H, Paturel.J.E, Possin.J.C, Cecchi.P, 2015, Water balance of small reservoirs in the Volta basin: A case study of Boura reservoir in Burkina Faso, Agricultural Water Management 152:99-109.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.01.006.
Fox.G.A, Sheshukov.A, Cruse.R, Kolar.R.I, Guertanit.L, Gesch.K.R, Dutnell.R.C, 2016, Reservoir sedimentation and upstream sedimen sources: perspectives and future research needs on streambank and gully erosion, Environmental Management 57:945-955. http://dx.doi.org/101007/s00267.016-0671-9.
191 Friedrichsen.C.N., Hagen-Zakarison.S., Friesen.M.L., McFarland.C.R, Tao.H.,
Wulfhorst.J.D., 2021, Soil health and well-being: Redefining soil health based upon a plurality of values, Soil Security 2:100004.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soisec.2021.100004
Gasiorek.E, Musial.E. 2015,Evaluation of the precision of standardized precipitation index (SPI) based on years 154-1995 in Lodz. Journal of Ecological Engineering 16(4):49-53. https://dx.doi.org/10.12911/22998993.59347 .
Ghandour.I.M, Basaham.S, Al-Washmi.A, Masuda.H, 2014, Natural and anthropogenic controls on sediment composition of an arid coastal environment:
Sharm Obhur, Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, Environ Monit Assess 186:1465-1484.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-031-3467-x
Ghose.D, Das.U, Roy.P, 2018, Modeling response of runoff and evapotranspiration for predicting water table depth in a rid region using dynamic recurrent neurl network, Groundwater for Sustainable Development 6:263-269.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2018.01.007
Ghozali, I., 2011, Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 19.
Edisi ke-5, Penerbit Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro,Semarang
Giuliani.M, Li.Y, Cominola.A, Denaro.S, Mason.E, Castelletti.A, 2016, A Matlab toolbox for designing Multi-Objective Optimal Operations of water reservoir systems, Environmental Modelling & Software 85:293-298.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.015
Gorska.A.I.P, Zarczynski.M.J, Ahrens.A, Enters.D, Weisbrodt.D, Tylmann.W, 2017, Impact of historical land use changes on lacustrine sedimentation recorded in
192 varved sediments of Lake Jaczno, northeastern Poland, Catena 153:182-193.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2017.02.007.
Hallouz.F, Meddi.M, Mahe.G, Alirahmani.S, Keddar.A, 2018, Modelling of discharge and sediment transport through the SWAT model in the basin of Harraza (Northwest of Algeria), Water Science 32:79-88.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsj.2017.12.004.
Han.M.,Zhao.C., Feng.G., Disse.M., Shi.F.,Li.J., 2015, An eco-hydrological approach to predicting regional vegetation and groundwater response to cological water conveyance in dryland riparian ecosystems, Quaternary International 380- 381:224-236.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.02.032.
Harsoyo.B, 2010, Jebolnya Tanggul Situ Gintung (27 Maret 2009) Bukan Karena Faktor Hujan Ekstrem”, Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 11(1):9- 17. http://ejurnal.bppt.go.id/index.php/JSTMC/article/view/2176/1814
Hazo.A.I, Sawa.B.A, Musa.M, 2019, Assessment of Climate Change Awareness and Risk Perception Among Rural People in Funtua Local Government Area, Katsina State, Nigeria. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) 3 (2):29-37. www.ijtsrd.com.
Hazrumy.A, 2009, A brief report on the Situ Gintung disaster, http://www.taganabanten.com/ (accessed November 25, 2019).
Herrera-Sanchez. G., Moran-Bravo. L.C, Gallardo-Navarro. J.L, Silva-Juares. A., 2019, Application of Newton law of Cooling in production line. Rinoe Journal- Industrial Organization, 3(5):1-7. https://dx.doi.org/10.35429/JO.2019.5.3.1.7
193 Hitayezu.P, Wale.E, Ortmann.G, 2017, Assessing Farmers’ perceptions about
climate: A double-hurdle approach, Climate Risk Management 17:123-138.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.07.001
Hyndman.R.J, Koehler.A.B, 2006, Another look at measures of forecast accuracy, International Journal of Forecasting 22:679-688.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001 .
Idlango.M.A, Shepherd.J.J, Gear.J.A, 2017, Logistic growth with a slowy varying Holling type II harvesting term, Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat 49:81- 92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2017.02.005.
Info Wisata Kabupaten Pati, 2015, Waduk Seloromo Gembong Pati, http://infowisatapati.blogspot.com/2015/05/waduk-seloromo-gembong-
pati.html (diakses 4 Februari 2021).
IPPC(International Panel on Climate Change), 2007, Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: an assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, University Press: Cambridge, UK
Jajarmizadeh.M, Harun.S, Salapour.M, 2012, A Riview on theoretical consideration and types of models in hydrology, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 5:249-261.
https://dx.doi.org/10.3923/jest.2012.249.261
Jin.W, McCue.S.W, Simpson.M.J, 2018, Extended logistic growth model for heterogenous populations, Journal of Theoretical Biology 445:51-61.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.02.027.
194 Jorgensen.S.E, 1994, Fundamental of Ecological Modelling (2nd Ed), Elsevier,
Netherlands: ISBN: 0-444-81578-3.
Jorgensen.S.E, 2016, Ecohydrology as an important concept and tool in enviomental management, Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 16:4-6.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2015.04.005.
Junaidi, 2010, Tabel r (Koefisien Korelasi Sederhana) df =1-200.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://prima.lecture r.pens.ac.id/Pasca/tabel_r.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjqks7g0uHyAhUz8HMBHY2uC yQQFnoECAMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1de8M4b9G6F8JWd504qNwy (diakses pada tanggal 2 September 2021)
Kabupaten Pati, 2011, Peraturan Daerah Kabupaten Pati Nomor 5 Tahun 2011 tentang Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) Kabupaten Pati tahun 2010- 2030.
Kabupaten Pati, 2017, Rencana Strategis Kecamatan Gembong Kabupaten Pati 2017-2022.
https://jdih.patikab.go.id/asset/files/Bab_I_-_Bab_VIII_Renstra_2017- 2022_Kecamatan_Gembong_Baru.pdf
Karlsson.I.B, Sonnenborg.T.O, Refsgaard.J.C, Trolle.D, Bargesen.C.D, Olesen.J.E, Jeppesen.E, Jensen.K.H, 2016, Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenario on hydrological impacts of climate change, Journal of Hydrology 535:301-317.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069
195 Kartono, 2012, Persamaan Diferensial Biasa: Model Matematika Fenomena
Perubahan, Yogyakarta:Graha Ilmu. ISBN:9789797568108.
www.grahailmu.co.id
Kartono, Purwanto, Suripin, 2019, Potential environmental pressures on water availability in Gembong reservoir in Pati District for the development of agropolitan area, Journal of Physics:Conf.Series 1217(2019)012061, http://dx.doi.org/:10.1088/1742-6596/1217/1/012061.
Kartono.K, Purwanto.P, Suripin.S, 2020, Analysis of Local Rainfall Characteristics as a Mitigation Strategy for Hydrometeorology Disaster in Rain-fed Reservoirs Area, Advances in Science, Technology and Engineering Systems Journal 5(3):299-305. http://dx.doi.org/10.25046/aj050339.
Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup, 2016, Peraturan Menteri Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Nomor. P.33/Menlhk/Setjen/Kum.1/3/2016 tentang Penyusunan Adaptasi Prubahan Iklim.
Kotir.J.H, Smith.C, Brown.G, Marshall.N, Johnstone.R, 2016, A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana, Science of the Total Environment 573:444-457. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.081.
Kribs-Zaleta.C.M, 2004, To switch or taper off: the dynamics of saturation, Mathematical Biosciences 192:137-152.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2004.11.001.
196 Kuhn.A, Britz.W, Willy.D.K, van Oel.P, 2016, Simulating the viability of water
institutions under volatile rainfall conditions- The case of the Lake Naivasha Basin, Environmental Modlling & Software 75:373-387.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.021.
Kuo.J.T, Hsieh.P.H, Jou.W.S, 2008, Lake eutrophication management modeling using dynamic programming, Journal of Environmental Management 88:677- 687. http://dx.doi,org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.03.027.
Kumar.S, Mishra.A, 2015, Critical erosion area identification based on hydrological response unit level for effective sedimentation control in a river basin, Water Resour Manage 29:1749-1965.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0909-3.
Li.H.Q, Zheng.F, Zhao.Y.Y, 2017, Farmer behavior and perceptions to alternative scenarios in a highly intensive agricultural region, south central China, Jounal of Integrative Agriculture 16(8):1852-1864.
https://doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(16)61547-2
Lin.N.M, Rutten.M, 2016, Optimal Opeartion of a Network of Multi-Purpose Reservoir: A Review, Procedia Engineering 154:1376-1384.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016. 07.505
Liu.H, Xu.X, Lin.Z, Zhang.M, Mi.Y Huang.C, Yang.H, 2016, Climate and human impacts on quasi-periodic and abrupt change of sedimentation rate at multiple time scales in Lake Taihu China, Journal of Hydrology 543:739-748.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.046.
197 Lobanova.A, Liersch.S, Tabara.J.D, Koch.H, Hattermann.F.F, Krysanova.V, 2017,
Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario- based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River, Journal of Hydrology 548:436-447. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.015.
Lopes-Nicolas.A, Pulido-Velasques.M, Macian-Sorribes.H, 2017, Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture, Journal of Hydrology 550:580-589, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.004
Mahmood.R, Jia.S, Zhu.W, 2019, Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in yhe most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa, Scientific Reports 9:6317. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42811-9
Makridakis.S, Wheelwright.S.C, McGee.V.E, 1999, Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan (Terj. Untung S.A, Abdul.B), Erlangga, Edisi Kedua, Jilid.1.
Malinowski.L, Skoczko.I, 2018, Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Regime and Water Resources Management of the Narew River in Poland, Jounal of Ecological Engineering 19(4):167-175.
https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/91672.
Melica. V, Invernizzi.S, Carist.G, 2014, Logistic density-dependent growth of an Aurelia Aurita polyps population, Ecological Modelling 291:1-5.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.009.
Mereu.S, Susnik.J, Trabucco.A, Daccache.A, Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia.L, Renoldi.S, Virdis.A, Savic.D, Assimacopoulos.D, 2016, Operational resilience of reservoir to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia, Science of the Total Environment 543:1028-1038.
198 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066.
Miranda.L.C.M, Lima.C.A.S, 2010, A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time serie and forecasting, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77:175-192.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.007.
Miskinis.P, Vasiliauskiene.V, 2017, The analytical solutions of the harvesting Verhulst’s evolution equation, Ecological Modeling 360:189-193.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.021.
Molina.J.R, Silva.F.R, Herrera.M.A, 2016, Integrating economic landscape valuation into Metireranean territorial planning, Environmental Science & Policy 56:120-128. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.11.010.
Momblanch.A, Connor.J.D, Crossman.N.D, Paredes-Arquiola.J, Andreu.J, 2016, Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models, Journal of Hydrology 538:293-303.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016/04.019.
Mondal.A, Kundu.S, Mukhopadhyay, 2012, Rainfall Trend Analysis by Mann- Kendall Test: A case study of North-Eastern Part of Cuttack District, Orissa, International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental Sciences ISSN:227- 2081, 2(1):70-78, http://www.cibtech.org/jgee.htm.
Murniningtyas.E, 2012, Pengarusutamaan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim dalam Pembangunan Nasional, Lokakarya Mengarusutamakan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim dalam Agenda Pembangunan, Bogor: 23 Oktober 2012.
199 Mushar,S.H.M., Ahmad,S.S.S., Kasmin,F., Kasmuri,E., 2019, Flood Damage
Assessment: A Preliminary Study, Journal of Environmental Research, Engineering and Management 75 (3):55-70.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.75.3.22433.
Nazir.M., 2003, Metode Penelitian, Jakarta:Ghalia Indonesia. ISBN: 9794501735.
Nguyen.T.P.L, Seddaiu.G, Virdis.S.G.P, Tidore.C, Pasqui.M, Roggero/P.P, 2016, Perceiving to learn or learning to perceive? Understanding farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to climate uncertainties, Agricultural Systems 143: 205-216.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.01.001
Niu.Z, Gou.Q, Wang.X, Zhang.Y, 2016, Simulation of a water ecosystem in a landscape lake in Tianjin with AQUATOX: Sensitivity, calibration, validation and ecosystem prognosis, Ecological Modeling 335:54-63.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.05.003.
Norzilah.A, Ahmad.M.F, Jusoh.A, Tofany.N, Yaacob.R, Muslim.A.M, 2016, Hydrodynamics modelling at Setiu Wetland, Terengganu, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology,
https://dx.doi.org/10.3923/jest.2016.437.445 .
Nugroho.P, Marsono.D, Sudira.P, Suryatmojo.H, 2013, Impacts of land-use change on water balance, Procedia Environmental Sciences 17:256-262.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/jproenv.2013.02.036.
Nury.A.H, Hasan.K, Analysis of drought in northwestern Bangladesh using standardized precipitation index and its relation to Southern oscillation index.
Environ.Eng.Res. 2016;21(1):58-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.4491/eer.2015.115.
200 Oming.G, Karypis.D, Matthews.C, Oleson.B, Schlichting.C, Paakh.B, Steward.D,
Hanson.S, Searight.K, Welch.W, Willert.H/Strub.D, Rentz.D, Wallschlaeger.J, 2000, Sustainable Lakes Planning Workbook: A Lake Management Model Version 1.0, Minnesota Lakes Association Board of Directors (800):5215-5253.
www.mnlakesassn.org.
Ortega. A., Rosales. J.J., 2018, Newton’s law of cooling with fractional conformable derivative. Rev. Mex. Fis 64(2):172-175.
https://doi.org/10.31349/RevMexFis.64.172
Oselebe.H.O, C.V.Nnamani, A.Efisue, D.Onu, S.O.Eze, and J.O. Ogunji, 2016, Perceptipns of climate change and variability, impacts and adaptation strategies by rice farmers in South East Nigeria, Our Nature 14(1):54-63.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/on.v14i1.16441 .
Oskendal.B., 1992, Stochastic Differential Equation: An Introduction with Applications, 3ed, Berlin:Springer-Verlag.
https://springer.proxy.undip.ac.id/book/10.1007/978-3-662-02847-6
Pandey.P.K, Soupir.M.L, Singh.V.P, Panda.S.N, Pandey.V, 2011, Modeling Rainwater Storage in Distributed Reservoir Systems in Humid Subtropical and Tropical Savannah Regions, Water Resour Manage 25:3901-3111, https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9847-5
Paulikas.V.K, Lazdinis.I, Bakas.A, 2013, Sustainable Rural Development Opportunities in Lithuania, Environmental Research, Engineering and Management 4(66):51-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.66.4.5409.
201 Peleg.M, Corradini, M.G, Normand.M.D, 2007, The logistic (Verhulst) model for
sigmoid microbial growth curves revisited, Food Research International 40:808- 818. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2007.01.012
PERHIMPI (Indonesia Agriculture Meteorology Society), 2008, Increasing National Capacity of Adaptation for Climate Change through Cross Sectoral and Regional Cooperation, Proceedings Agriculture Meteorology Symposium VII, Jakarta:
January 15-16 th 2008.
Pinol.C.M.N, Banzon.R.S, 2011, Stability in a population model without random deaths by the Verhulst factor, Physica A 390:1295-1299.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2010.11.046 .
Poraj-Gorska. A.I., Zarczynski. M. J., Ahren. A., Enters. D., Weisbrodt. D., Tylmann. W., 2017, Impact of historical land use changes on lacustrine sedimentation recorded in varved sediments of Lake Jaczno, northeastern Poland.
Catena 153:182-193. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/catena.2017.02.007.
Puno. R. C.C., Puno. G.R, Talisay. B.A.M, 2019, Hydrological responses of watershed assessment to land cover and climate change using soil and water tool model, Global J.Environ.Sci.Manage 5(1):71-82.
https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2019.01.06. .
Purwanto, 2005, Permodelan Rekayasa Proses dan Lingkungan, Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang.
Presley.K, Wesseh,Jr, Lin.B, 2017, Climate change and agriculture under CO2
fertilization effects and farm level adaptation: Where do the model meet?.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.006
202 Rai.R.K, Bhatta.L.D, Acharya.U, Bhatta.A.P, 2018, Assessing climate-resilient
agricultural for smallholders, Environmental Development xxx, http://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2018.06.002.
Radzka.E, 2014, Classification of Precipitation Intensity During Vegetation Season in Central-Eastern Poland (1971-2005), Journal of Ecological Engineering 15(3):51-55. https://dx.doi.org/10.12911/22998993.1109123 .
Redaksi, 2018, Bila Waduk Seloromo Jebol, Kota Pati Lenyap. Suarasiber.com(Situs Berita Zaman Now). https://suarasiber.com/2018/05/bila-waduk-seloromo- jebol-kota-pati-lenyap/ (diakses 4 Februari 2021).
Republik Indonesia, 1999, Undang-Undang RI Nomor 41 Tahun 1999 tentang Kehutanan.
Republik Indonesia, 2007, Undang-Undang RI Nomor 26/2007 tentang Penataan Ruang
Republik Indonesia, 2009, Undang-Undang RI Nomor 32 tahun 2009 tentang Perlindungan dan Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup (PPLH)
Republik Indonesia, 2010, Peraturan Pemerintah RI Nomor 37 tahun 2010 tentang Bendungan
Republik Indonesia, 2012, Peraturan Pemerintah RI Nomor 37 tahun 2012 tentang Pengelolaan DAS.
Republik Indonesia, 2015, Peraturan Menteri Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat RI Nomor 27/PRT/M/2015 tentang Bendungan.
Republik Indonesia, 2017, Peraturan Presiden Republik Indonesia Nomor 59 Tahun 2017 tentang Pelaksanaan Pencapaian Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan.
203 Republik Indonesia, 2019, Undang-Undang RI Nomor 17 Tahun 2019 Tentang
Sumber Daya Air.
Republik Indonesia, 2021, Peraturan Presiden Republik Indonesia Nomor 98 Tahun 2021 tentang Penyelenggaraaan Nilai Ekonomi Karbon untuk Pencapaian Target Kontribusi yang Ditetapkan secara Nasional dan Pengendalian Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca dalam Pembangunan Nasional.
Rogovchenko,S.P.,Rogochenko,Y.V., 2009, Effect of Periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 39:1169- 1181. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.11.002.
Ross.J.V, 2009, A note on density dependence in population models, Ecological Modelling 220:3472-3474.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.08.024
Saccon.P, 2018, Water for agriculture, irrigation management, Applied Soil Ecology 123:793-796, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsoil.2017.10.037
Sanga. G.J., Mungatana. E.D., 2016, Integrating ecology and economics in understanding responses in securing land-use externalities internalization in water catchments. Ecological Economics 121:28-39.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.001
Salami.A.W, Ibrahim.H, Sojobi.A.O, 2015, Evaluation of impact of climate variability on water resources and yield capacity of selected reservoirs in the north central Nigeria. Environ. Eng. Res. 20(3):290-297.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4491/eer.2015.0041.
204 Samarasinghe. S, 2006, Neural Networks for Applied Sciences and Engineering,
New York: Auerbach Pub.
Sarwono.S.W, 2018, Psikologi Sosial: Individu dan Teori-teori Psikologi Sosial, Jakarta: Balai Pustaka
Schiefer.E, Petticrew.B.L,Immell.R, Hassan.M.A, Sonderegger.D.L, 2013, Land use and climate change impacts on lake sedimentation rates in western Canada, Anthropocene 3:61-71,
http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2014.02.006.
Shukla.S, Jain.S.K, Kansal.M.L, Chandniha.S.K, 2017, Assessment of sedimentation in Pong dan Bhakra reservoirs in Himachal Pradesh, India using geospatial technique, Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 8:148-156.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.08.008
Schonhart.M, Schauppenlehner.T, Kutmer.M, Kirchner.M, Schmid.E, 2016, Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment:
Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria, Agricultural Systems 145:39-50.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy .2016.02.008.
SDG (Sustainable Development Goals), Goal 6: Ensure access to water and sanitation fo all
Shi.P., Sandhu.H.S., Ge.F., 2013, Could the intrinsic rate of increase represent the fitness in tererestrial ectotherms?, Journal of Thermal Biology 38:148-151.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2013.01.002.
205 Simon.H, Kalemen.S, Begy.R.S, 2017, Anthropic influences on the sedimentation
rates of lakes situated in different geographic areas, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 173:11-17.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2016.09.001.
Sugiyono, 2016, Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D, Bandung:PT Alfabeta.
Sun.Z, Wu.F, Shi.C, Zhan.J, 2016, The impact of land use change on water balance in Zhangye city, China, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 96:64-73, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2016.06.004.
Sunusi.N, Herdiani.E.T, Nirwan, 2017, Modelling of extreme rainfall time by using point process models, J.Environ.Sci.Technol 10:214-224.
https://dx.doi.org/10.3923/jest.2017.320.324
Suripin, 2004, Pelestarian Sumber Daya Tanah dan Air, Yogyakarta: Penerbit Andi Suripin, Pujiastuti.R., Wijonarko, 2017, The initial stef for developing sustainable
urban drainage system in Semarang city-Indonesia, Procedia Engineering 171:1486-1494. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.01.478
Szewranski.S, Kazak.J, Szkaradkiewicz. M, Sasik.J, 2015, Flood risk factors in suburnan area in the context of climate change adaptation policies-Case study of Wroclaw Poland, Journal of Ecological Engineering 16(2):13-18, https://dx.doi.org/10.12911/22998993/1854 .
Szporak-Wasilewka.s, Piniewski.M, Kubrak.J, Okruszka.T, 2015, What we can learn from a wetland water balance?: Narew National Park case study, Ecohydrology
& Hydrobiology 15:136-149.
206 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2015.02.003.
Tajbakhsh. S. M., Memarian. H., Moradi. K., Aghakhani Afshar. A.H., 2018, Performance comparison of land change modeling techniques for land use projection of arid watersheds, Global J.Environ. Sci. Manage.4(3):263-280.
https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2018.03.002
Tanika. L., Lusiana. B., 2017, Dampak Perubahan Tutupan Lahan terhadap Kondisi Hidrologi di DAS Buol, Kabupaten Buoal, Sulawesi Tengah: Simulasi dengan Model GenRiver. Working paper 261, Bogor, Indonesia Word Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) Southest Asia Regional Program.
https://dx.doi.org/10.5716/WP17146.PDF
Thornley.J.H.M, France.J, 2004, An open-ended logistic-based growth function, Ecological Modelling 184:257-261.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.10.007 .
Tinoco.V, Willems.P, Wyseure.G, Cisneros.F, 2016, Evaluation of reservoir operation strategies for irrigation in the Macul Basin, Ecuador, Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies 5:213-225.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.063
Todorovic. J.D., Tomic. Z., Denic. N., Petkovic. D., Kojic. N, Petrovic. J., Petkovic.
B., 2018, Applicability of Newton’s law of cooling in monetary economics.
Physica A 494:209-217. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.030 Torrealba-Rodriguez.O, Conde-Gutierrez.R.A, Hernandez-Javier.A.L, 2020,
Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Mexico applying mathematical and
207 computational models, Chaos, Soliton and Fractals 138:109946.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos2020.109946.
Tseng F.M, Yu H.C, Tseng G.H, 2002, Combining neural network model with seasonal time series ARIMA Model, Technology Forecasting & Social Change 69:71-87. PII:S0040-1625(00)00113-X
Tsoularis.A., 2001, Analysis of Logistic Growth Models, Res.Lett.Inf.Math.Sci 2:23-46, http://www.massey.ac.nz/wwiims/~rlims
Udmale.P, Ichikawa.Y, Manandhar.S, Ishidaira.H, Kiem.A.S, 2014, Farmers’
perception of drought impacts, local adaptation and administrative mitigation measures in Maharashtra State, India, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 10:250-269. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.09.011
UNESCO, 2012, International Glossary of Hydrology, World Meterological Organization, WMO-No.385, ISBN 978-92-63-03385-8,
E-mail: publications@wmo.int
UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme), 1992, Technology Needs for Lake Management in Indonesia-Investigation of Rawa Danau and Rawa Pening, Java, Newsletter and Technical Publications.
UNEP(United Nations Environmental Programme), 2017, Freshwater Strategy 2017-2021.
Uttaruk.Y, Laosuwan.T, 2017, Drought Detection by Application of Remote Sensing Technology and Vegetation Phenology, Journal of Ecological Enginnering 18(6):115-121. https://dx.doi.org/10.12911/22998993/76326 .
208 Wahyuningrum.N, Putra.P.B, 2018, Evaluasi Lahan untuk Menilai Kinerja Sub
Daerah Aliran Sungai Rawakawuk, JPPDAS, https://doi.org/10.20886/jppdas.2018.2.1.1-16.
Wang.Z, Wang.Z, Zhang.B, Lu.C, Ren.C, 2015, Impact of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northest China, Ecologcal Processes 4:11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-015-0036-y
Wang.Z, Ma.Q, Wang.J, Chen.S, Fan.Y, Deng.L, 2018, Empirical study on agricultural drought adaptation of typical rainfed areas in Shidian County, China, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28:394-403.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.03.024
Wei, William S. 2006,. Time Series Analysis, Univariate and Multivariate Method, New York : Pearson Education, Second Edition
WHO, 2020, Water, sanitation, hygiene, and waste management for the COVID-19 virus: interim guidance, WHO/2019-nCoV/IPC_WASH/2020.2.
Widowati, Sutimin, 2013, Pemodelan Matematika: Analisis dan Aplikasinya, Semarang: UNDIP Press, ISBN: 978-602-097-370-8
Xi.X., Poh.K.L., 2013. Using system dynamics for sustainable wáter resources management in Singapore. Procedia Comput. Sci., 16:157-166.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050913000185?via%3 Dihub
Zhang K, Yao Y, Qian X, Wang J, 2019, Various characteristics of precipitation concebtration index and its cause analysis in China between 1960 and 2016, Int J Climatol; 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6092.