Understanding the implications of climate change for birds of the Phasianidae family: incorporating fleshy structures into models for heat. In this study, I assess the potential effects of climate change on phasianids, a family of birds already considered a serious conservation concern (Johnsgard 1986, p. xviii). Studies have assessed the actual and potential effects of climate change on a wide variety of species.
Indeed, different populations of Adélie penguins have very different responses to climate change (Croxall et al. 2002). 2012) contrasted responses of three spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations in the southwestern United States and predicted that each population would respond differently to climate change. Studies of changes in species' ranges predict much more severe declines than palaeoecological studies have shown to have occurred in response to past climate change.
Studies have shown that species change the timing of their life cycle in relation to variation in temperature (Chen et al. 2011, p. considered the ability of Sceloporus lizards to adapt to climate change and. It is important that studies that predict species' response to climate change consider the possibility of both relocation and thermoregulatory adaptation.
HDL Theory
What is HDL theory?
Metabolic rate can be defined as the total rate of the processes of energy absorption from. Both MTE and more traditional ways of thinking about energy supply and demand place the constraint on the supply side of the energy equation (Speakman and Król 2010). Attempts to understand this fundamental limit have been elucidating the nature of the metabolic constraints that animals face.
The first theory proposed was the central limitation hypothesis, which argued that the ability of the digestive tract to absorb nutrients limits maximum energy intake and thus maximum lactation (Speakman and Król 2010, p. 728). Heat loss through the shell (Hs) can be calculated from the thermal conductivity of the insulating layer, the surface of the organism, the depth of the insulating layer and the surface temperature of the shell, which is primarily determined by the ambient temperature. . The thermal conductivity of the insulating layer, the surface and the depth of the insulating layer can be estimated based on body weight.
Climate change is projected to cause surface warming over much of the world, although the effects will be relatively greater at high latitudes. In particular, if the HDL theory is correct, then extreme temperatures, such as the maximum temperature of the warmest month (TM), may be a limiting factor in the survival of an organism.
Study Group
Of course, behaviors such as daily stiffness or panting may allow organisms to continue to function under such conditions. The understanding of such physiological constraints would benefit from studies that incorporate physiological properties into models of heat dissipation. Of the galliform species listed on the IUCN Red List, 15 percent are considered at risk, at least in part due to climate change (McGowan et al., p. 321).
Despite this, few studies exist that evaluate the responses of Galliformes to climate change, but see R et al. 2010), focusing only on Galliformes in China. My project focuses on the family Phasianidae, which consists of pheasants, partridges, junglefowl, chicken, quail and peacock. According to Johnsgard, "of all major bird groups, pheasants are among the most severely affected by human exploitation and habitat destruction" (1986, p. xviii).
FS has been considered sexual grooming, but few studies have considered the costs of FS (Buchholz 1996). Instead, it presents a simplistic model that assumes that heat dissipation depends only on geometric (that is, volume: surface area) biophysical parameters calculated based on the body as a sphere or cylinder.
Objectives, Hypotheses and Predictions
Materials and Methods A. Compiling data
Species distribution maps for all currently known phasianid species were obtained from BirdLife International and NatureServe (2012). ArcInfo networks of bioclimatic variables under current and projected future scenarios were downloaded from the worldclim database (Hijmans et al. 2005). Data on body masses and height ranges of the species were collected through a literature review conducted by Dr.
For species for which elevation values were not available in the literature, occurrence points were downloaded from gbif (The Global Biodiversity Information Facility 2013). If more than 10 points were available, the minimum and maximum altitudes represented by these points were obtained using a script in R. Additional species were omitted from some analyzes when body mass or FS size data were not available at willing.
Using ArcGIS to determine which bioclimatic variables characterize species current and future ranges
When new rasters were created, it was noted which rasters were converted from 16-bit unsigned rasters to 8-bit rasters, as this changed the values. The copy raster tool was then used to convert these rasters to their original depth (16-bit unsigned), restoring the original values. I converted the resulting raster layer into polygons and intersected these polygons with the current distribution polygons to create polygons containing the areas that will remain in the current distribution.
The field geometry tool in ArcGIS was used to calculate the area of the current distribution and the overlap between the current distribution and the potential future distribution. Finally, a mask extraction tool was used to determine what the TM was, using the current distributions as a mask.
Measuring FS Size
The proportion of the bird covered by FS was calculated and the surface areas of FS were calculated (Table 1).
Modifying the HDL Equation
Ts is the surface temperature of the FS in K, which was considered to be 2 °C less than Tb (Richards 1971).
Statistical Methods in R
Results
Climate Change and Species Ranges
The Red-legged Partridge is native to Europe and is categorized as Least Concern by the IUCN Red List, but the population appears to be declining (BirdLife International 2012). Throated partridge is believed to occur in India and China, but is rare and little known (BirdLife International 2012). The IUCN Red List categorizes this species as Least Concern, but the population is believed to be declining rapidly.
The variables considered were the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the minimum temperature of the coolest month, the average daily range and the average annual temperature. For a map that provides an example of which parts of a species' distribution will be characterized by tolerated bioclimatic variables in 2070, see Figure 9. For some species, such as the common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), little to no change in range is predicted.
However, for species such as the tawny partridge (Tetraophasis szechenyii) and the mountain peacock pheasant (Polyplectron inopinatum), distribution changes of more than 99 percent are expected. The mountain peacock pheasant is categorized as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List (BirdLife International 2012). The shaded areas indicate the predicted portion of the original area that will be characterized by the same bioclimatic variables in 2070.
Modeling HDC
There is no difference in which species reach or exceed their HDC in males and females; there are two fewer species in which females will exceed their HDC in 2070 than there are in which males will exceed their HDC, because no information was available on the weight of females of these species. Species that exceed the HDC are the same species that exceeded the HDC before the head and neck were included. Again, the species that exceed the HDC are the same species that exceeded the HDC before the head and neck were included.
The Role of FS in Heat Dissipation
Contrary to my expectations, HDC is not significantly lower when considering future climate conditions than when considering current climate conditions (t = 1.7355, df p = 0.0851). Contrary to my expectations, significantly more species are not predicted to exceed their heat dissipation capacity in 2070 than at present (χ p = 0.3120). Species that currently do not exceed their HDC, but are expected to in 2070 include the red-throated partridge (Arborophila rufogularis) and Heuglin's francolin (Pternistis icterorhynchus), both of which are categorized as Least Concern by the IUCN Red List (BirdLife International 2012).
Correlates of FS variation
Discussion
