5 Day Rainfall Forecast

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* Red color warning does not mean "Red Alert" Red color warning means "Take Action".

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day For more details kindly visit www.imd.gov.in or contact : +91 11 24631913, 24643965, 24629798

Monday, May 01, 2023 Time of Issue: 0800 hours IST (MORNING) ALL INDIA WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST BULLETIN

Significant Weather Features

Significant Meteorological features:

 The Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lies over central Pakistan in lower & upper tropospheric levels.

 An Induce Cyclonic Circulation lies over south Pakistan & adjoining West Rajasthan in lower tropospheric levels.

 A Cyclonic Circulations lies over southwest Uttar Pradesh and another over south Chhattisgarh in lower tropospheric levels.

 A trough/wind discontinuity runs from east Vidarbha to North Interior Tamil Nadu in lower tropospheric levels.

 An active Western Disturbance is likely to affect Northwest India from the night of 01st May, 2023.

Severe weather warning for next 5 days:

Northwest India:

 Hailstorm activity very likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on 01st & 02nd May; Uttarakhand during next 5 days; over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, during 01st-02nd May; over Rajasthan on 03rd May. Thundersquall very likely over Uttarakhand on 02nd & 03rd May.

 Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Jammu division on 02nd May and Himachal Pradesh on 01st & 02nd May.

 Duststorm very likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan during 03rd-04th May.

 Gradual decrease in rainfall activity over the region from 4^th May.

Central India:

 Scattered/Fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorm with gusty winds over the region during next 4 days and reduction in intensity and distribution thereafter.

South India:

 Very Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Rayalaseema & Tamil Nadu 01st May. Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 01st & 2nd May; over Kerala & Tamil Nadu during next 3 days.

 Significant decrease in rainfall activity over the region from 4^th May.

East India:.

 Hailstorm very likely at isolated places over Jharkhand and West Bengal & Sikkim on 01st May.

 Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 01st & 2nd May.

 Gradual decrease in rainfall activity over the region from 3^rd May.

Northeast India:

 Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 01st-02st May; Assam & Meghalaya during 01st-04th May.

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Main Weather Observations

 Rainfall/thundershowers observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): at most places over Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh; at many places over East Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal &

Sikkim, North Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Assam & Meghalaya, Odisha, Telangana, Marathwada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Kerala & Mahe.

 Significant rainfall recorded (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday)(in cm): Valprai-6;

Khajuraho and Damoh-4 each; Sagar, Durg and Dharmapuri-3 each; Shimla, Dehradun, Nagpur, Raisen, Khandwa, Patna, Tiruchirrapalli and Gulbarga-2 each; Mukteshwar Kumaon, Mandi, Kandla, Fursatganj, Chhindwara, Indore, Seoni, Pachmarhi, Raipur, Jamshedpur, Kolkata, Diamond Harbour, Haldia, Dehri, Midnapore, Vijayawada, Ramgundam, Ariyalur and K Paramathy-1 each.

 Thunderstorm observed (from 0830 hours IST to yesterday to 0530 hours IST of today): at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &

Meghalaya, Gujarat State, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.

 Hailstorm Observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Telangana and Rayalaseema.

 Minimum Temperature Departures (as on 30-04-2023): Minimum temperatures were appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.1°C) at a few places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at a few places over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andaman & Nicobar Islands. They were markedly below normal (-5.1°C or less) at most places over Vidarbha and Marathwada; at many places over Madhya Pradesh; at a few places over Rajasthan; at isolated places over Chhattisgarh, North Interior Karnataka, Telangana;

appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.1°C) at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at many places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Gujarat Region, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &

Karaikal; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Coastal Karnataka, West Bengal & Sikkim; at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Rayalaseema, Kerala & Mahe and Odisha. Yesterday, the lowest minimum temperature of 15.8°C was reported at Malanjkhand (East Madhya Pradesh).

 Maximum Temperature Departures (as on 30-04-2023): Maximum temperatures were appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.1°C) at a few places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at a few places over Coastal Karnataka and at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe. They were markedly below normal (-5.1°C or less) at most places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathawada and Telangana; at many places over Uttarakhand and Jharkhand; at a few places over Bihar, Odisha, Gujarat State and North Interior Karnataka;

appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at most places over Rayalaseema; at many places over Madhya Maharashtra; at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at most places over Himachal Pradesh; at a few places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and near normal over rest parts of the country.

Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 39.6°C was reported at Bhubaneshwar (Odisha).

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Meteorological Analysis (Based on 0530 hours IST)

Weather Forecast for next 5 days (Upto 0830 hours IST of 06th May, 2023)

Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days (During 06th–08th May, 2023)

 Meteorological sub-division wise detailed 5 days rainfall forecast is given in Table-1.

Maximum Temperatures Forecast and Heat Wave Warnings:

 Maharashtra: No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely during next 24 hours and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.

 Gujarat state: Gradual rise by 2-4°C in maximum temperatures very likely during next 5 days.

 No significant change in maximum temperatures over rest parts of India during the next 5 days.

 No Heat wave conditions over most parts of India during next 5 days.

 The Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan & neighbourhood between 3.1 km & 9.3 km above mean sea level persists.

 The induced cyclonic circulation over south Pakistan & adjoining West Rajasthan extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

 The cyclonic circulation over southwest Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.

 The cyclonic circulation over south Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

 The cyclonic circulation over Maldives area at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

 The trough/wind discontinuity from east Vidarbha to north interior Tamil Nadu across Telangana and interior Karnataka at 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

 A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect Northwest India from the night of 01^st May, 2023.

 Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall likely to continue over northeast India and parts of Northwest India. Isolated light rainfall likely along east coast and over south peninsular India. Dry weather over rest parts of the country.

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Weather Warning during next 5 days

01 May (Day 1): ♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over ghat areas of Tamilnadu, Rayalaseema;

Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

♦ Hailstorm with lightning & gusty wind (40-50 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and with lightning at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry

& Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe; with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Rajasthan, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Gujarat state and Lakshadweep.

02 May (Day 2): ♦ Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

♦ Hailstorm with lightning & squall (50-60 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand; with lightning & gusty wind (40-50 kmph) at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and with lightning at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana Rayalaseema, South interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe; with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Bihar and Lakshadweep.

03 May (Day 3): ♦ Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

♦ Hailstorm with lightning & squall (50-60 kmph) likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand and with lightning & gusty wind (40-50 kmph) at isolated places over Rajasthan.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh &

Delhi; with lightning & gusty wind (30-40 kmph) over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala & Mahe; with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and South Interior Karnataka.

♦ Duststorm likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

04 May (Day 4): ♦ Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya.

♦ Hailstorm with lightning & gusty winds (40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over Punjab; with lightning & gusty wind (30-40 kmph) over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Assam &

Meghalaya; with lightning at isolated places Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Jharkhand, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe.

♦ Duststorm likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

05 May (Day 5): ♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Assam & Meghalaya; with lightning at isolated places Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe.

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Table-1

5 Day Rainfall Forecast

S.

No. Subdivision

01-

May 02-

May 03-

May 04-

May 05- May Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 1 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS WS WS WS FWS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS WS WS WS FWS

4 NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS 5 SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM WS WS WS WS FWS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL

7 ODISHA SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL

8 JHARKHAND FWS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

9 BIHAR SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS FWS FWS ISOL ISOL

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS FWS FWS ISOL ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS WS WS SCT SCT

13 HARYANA CHANDIGARH & DELHI FWS WS WS SCT ISOL

14 PUNJAB FWS WS WS SCT ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS WS WS SCT ISOL

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH SCT WS FWS SCT ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTHAN ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT

18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY

22 SAURASHTRA & KUTCH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY

23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

26 VIDARBHA FWS FWS SCT SCT ISOL

27 CHHATTISGARH FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM WS FWS FWS SCT SCT

29 TELANGANA FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT

30 RAYALASEEMA WS FWS SCT ISOL ISOL

31 TAMILNADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL WS WS WS SCT ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY 34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS FWS SCT ISOL ISOL

35 KERALA & MAHE WS FWS FWS SCT SCT

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS FWS SCT SCT DRY

Legend Category % Stations

WS Widespread/Most Places 76-100

FWS Fairly Widespread/Many Places 51-75

SCT Scattered/ A Few Places 26-50

ISOL Isolated Places 1-25

DRY No Rain 0

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1 | P a g e Government of India

Earth System Science Organization Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department

Press: Dated: 27^th April, 2023 Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended Range Forecast for next two weeks (27 April-10 May 2023)

1. Salient Observed Features for week of 26^thApril 2023

 Under the influence of the active Western Disturbance which moved as cyclonic circulation from North Pakistan & adjoining Punjab over Punjab & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level east-wards across north India, during 21-25 April and its induced cyclonic circulation, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh and over Himachal Pradesh during 20-25 April; passage of the system along with its induced cyclonic circulations had caused isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity during the same period over these areas; under their influence isolated rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred Madhya Pradesh and over remaining parts of Northwest India during the same period (except west Rajasthan); isolated hailstorm activity had occurred over Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh during the same period.

Under the influence of the 2^nd which was a fresh Western Disturbance and was seen as a cyclonic circulation over southeast Iran between 3.1 km to 7.6 km above mean sea levels on 25^th April and then moved westward and lay over Pakistan & adjoining Iran between 3.1 km to 7.6 km on 26 April, a fresh spell of isolated rain and thunderstorm was observed over northwest India on 25 and 26 April 2023.

 The embed cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & adjoining northeast Rajasthan on 22-23 April and over west Vidarbha and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 25 and 26 April along with the trough/wind discontinuity which was seen from central India to south Tamil Nadu across Peninsular India in almost all dates of the week have caused isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada,

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2 | P a g e Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and North Interior Karnataka over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry

& Karaikal and Kerala and Mahe on four to five days; and fairly widespread rainfall over Vidarbha and Telangana and Odisha during 24-26 April.

 Last week’s Heat Wave conditions over Gangetic West Bengal were abated on 21 April and no heat wave was observed over any parts of the country from 21 April during the week due to clouding and rain and thunderstorm activities over the country in most dates.

 Analysis of Weekly overall Rainfall distribution during the week ending on26 April 2023 and Pre-monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01March - 26 April 2023): It shows for the country as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall in % departure from its long period average (LPA) till week ending on 26 April 2023was39%, over south Peninsula as 67%, central India as 255% and northwest India had 85% while all India Seasonal cumulative rainfall

%departure during this year’s Pre-monsoon Season’s Rainfall during 01 March – 26 April 2023 is +8% and over northwest India, it is -2%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given in Table 1 and Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall both for week and season are given in Annex I and II respectively.

Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)

Region

WEEK SEASON

20.04.2023 TO 26.04.2023 01.03.2023 TO 26.04.2023

Actual Normal %

Dep Actual Normal % Dep EAST &

NORTH-EAST

INDIA

23.2 31.2 -26% 122.6 162.1 -24%

NORTH-WEST

INDIA

12 6.5 +85% 74.4 76 -2%

CENTRAL

INDIA

8.5 2.4 +255% 41.6 15.6 +167%

SOUTH

PENINSULA

16.4 9.8 +67% 58.2 44.2 +32%

Country as a

whole

13.5 9.7 +39% 67.9 63.1 +8%

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3 | P a g e 2. Large scale features

 Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. Also, neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the pre-monsoon season.

 The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Index is currently in Phase 1 with amplitude between 1 and 2.

According to the dynamical forecasts by the model, the MJO will change the phase immediately at the start of week 1 and enter in phase 2. Thereafter, it will move across phases 2, 3 and 4 during later part of week 1, start of week 2 respectively with amplitude less than 1. During the later part of week 2 the MJO will be in phase 5.

3. Forecast for next two week Forecast for next two week

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (27 April to 03 May, 2023) and Week 2 (04 to 10 May, 2023)

Forecast for week 1 (27 April to 03 May, 2023):

Significant Meteorological features:

 A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lies over south Pakistan &

neighbourhood in lower & middle levels.

 A cyclonic circulation lies over central Pakistan in lower levels.

 A trough/wind discontinuity runs from west Vidarbha to north Tamil Nadu in lower levels.

Forecast and warning for next 5 days Central India:

 Scattered/fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds (40-50 kmph) very likely over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh during most days of the week.

 Hailstorm very likely at isolated places over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha during 27th-29th and Chhattisgarh on 30th April.

 Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Vidarbha on 28th April.

South India:

 Scattered/fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds (40-50 kmph) very likely over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe during most days of the week.

 Hailstorm very likely at isolated places over Telangana on 27th April.

 Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Kerala during next 5 days; North Interior Karnataka on 29th; South Interior Karnataka during 29th April-01st May; Tamil Nadu on

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4 | P a g e 30th April & 01st May.

East India:

 Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over the region during most days of the week.

 Hailstorm very likely at isolated places over Odisha on 27th, 28th & 30th April.

 Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Odisha on 28th April.

Northeast India:

 Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over the region during most days of the week.

 Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya during 28th April-01st May and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 29th April.

Northwest India:

 Light/moderate scattered rainfall/snowfall with thunderstorm/lightning very likely over Western Himalayan Region and isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning over plains of Northwest India during most days of the week.

 Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Western Himalayan Region on 01^st&

02^nd May, 2023.

 Hailstorm activity very likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh on 27th; over Uttarakhand during 27th April-01st May; over Punjab and Haryana on 29th & 30th April.

 Duststorm very likely at isolated places over Rajasthan during 27th-30th April, 2023.

West India:

 Light isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning very likely over Madhya Maharashtra & Marathwada and light isolated rainfall over Gujarat state during the week.

 Hailstorm activity very likely at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra today and Marathawada on 27th & 28th April.

Rainfall for week 2 (04 to 10 May, 2023):

 Under the influence of Western Disturbance, isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm likely over northwest India during many days of the week.

 Due to trough/cyclonic circulation, isolated to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm likely over many parts of south Peninsula and central India during many days of the week.

 Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over northwest, central

&south Peninsular India and below normal over east & northeast India.

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5 | P a g e Maximum Temperatures and its forecast during Week 1 (27 April to 03 May, 2023) and Week 2 (04 to 10 May, 2023):

Maximum Temperature Forecast for week 1 (27 April to 03 May, 2023):

o Yesterday’s, Maximum Temperatures were below 40°C over most parts of the country except over some parts of Saurashtra & Kutch and at isolated places over southwest Madhya Pradesh & Madhya Maharashtra.

o Maximum Temperatures were below normal over most parts of the country.

o Maximum temperatures are very likely to be below normal to near normal during the week.

o No significant heat wave conditions likely over any part of India during next one week.

Maximum Temperature for week 2 (04 to 10 May, 2023):

o Maximum temperatures likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of India outside northeast India & along east coast, where it is likely to be above normal by 2- 3°C.

o No significant heat wave conditions likely over any parts of the country during the week.

Legends: Heavy Rain: 64.5 to 115.5 mm Very Heavy Rain: 115.6 to 204.4 mm, Extremely Heavy Rain> 204.4 mm

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1

ALL INDIA WEEKLY WEATHER REPORT 20 APRIL 2023– 26 APRIL, 2023

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES

 Under the influence of the active Western Disturbance which moved as cyclonic circulation from North Pakistan & adjoining Punjab over Punjab & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level east-wards across north India, during 21-25 April and its induced cyclonic circulation, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh and over Himachal Pradesh during 20-25 April; passage of the system along with its induced cyclonic circulations had caused isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity during the same period over these areas; under their influence isolated rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred Madhya Pradesh and over remaining parts of Northwest India during the same period(Except west Rajasthan); isolated hailstorm activity had occurred over Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh during the same period.

Under the influence of the 2^nd which was a fresh Western Disturbance and was seen as a cyclonic circulation over southeast Iran between 3.1 km to 7.6 km above mean sea levels on 25^th April and then moved westward and lay over Pakistan & adjoining Iran between 3.1 km to 7.6 km on 26 April, a fresh spell of isolated rain and thunderstorm was observed over northwest India on 25 and 26 April 2023.

 The embed cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & adjoining northeast Rajasthan on 22-23 April and over west Vidarbha and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 25 and 26 April along with the trough/wind discontinuity which was seen from central India to south Tamil Nadu across Peninsular India in almost all dates of the week have caused isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and North Interior Karnataka over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry

& Karaikkal and Kerala and Mahe on four to five days; and fairly widespread rainfall over Vidarbha and Telangana and Odisha during 24-26 April.

 No heat wave was observed over any parts of the country during the week due to clouding and rain and thunderstorm activities over the country.

Heavy Rainfall:

Heavy rainfall had occurred at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya on four days; over Telangana and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal on three days; over Coastal Andhra Pradesh

& Yanam and Kerala & Mahe on two days; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub- Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, Kashmir & Ladakh, Odisha, Rayalaseema and North Interior Karnataka on one day during the week.

Thunderstorms/Hailstorm:

Thunderstorms/Hailstorm occurred at isolated places over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Telangana on 05 days; Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and Odisha on 04 days; Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada on 03 days and Haryana and Punjab on 01 days during the week.

Temperature Scenario:

The highest maximum temperature of 43.9^oC had been recorded at Pantnagar (Uttarakhand) on 20^th April 2023 and the lowest minimum temperature of 13.0^oC had been recorded at Sikar (East Rajasthan) on 23^rd April 2023 over the plains of the country during the week.

LEGEND: Few days-(3 days), Many days-4 to 5 days and Most days-6 to 7 days during the week.

METEOROLOGICALANALYSIS

 Last week’s Western Disturbance was seen as a trough in middle tropospheric levels with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level (amsl) roughly along Long. 68°E to the north of Lat.

25°N on 20^th, along Long. 72°E to the north of Lat. 30°N on 21 and 22 April and then it lay as a

Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department National Weather Forecasting Centre

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cyclonic circulation over North Pakistan & adjoining Punjab over Punjab & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level on 23 April. It lay over northeast Rajasthan &

neighboorhood between 1.5 & 7.6 km above mean sea level on 24 April and then it lay as a trough roughly along Long. 78°E to the north of 28°N in middle tropospheric levels on 25^th April and became less marked thereafter.

 Last week’s induced cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and adjoining Punjab extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 21 April and became less marked on 22 April.

 A fresh Western Disturbance lay as a cyclonic circulation over southeast Iran between 3.1 km to 7.6 km above mean sea levels on 25^th April. It moved westward and lay over Pakistan &

adjoining Iran between 3.1 km to 7.6 km on 26 April.

 A cyclonic circulation lay over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood between 1.5 km & 3.1 km above mean sea level on 26^th April.

 A cyclonic circulation lay over northeast Bangladesh & neighbourhood at 1.5 km above mean sea level on 20, 25 & 26 April.

 A cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & adjoining northeast Rajasthan at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 22 April and over central Madhya Pradesh and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 23 April and over west Vidarbha and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 25 and 26 April.

 Last week’s trough/wind discontinuity from Madhya Maharashtra to south Tamil Nadu seen from Telangana to south Tamil Nadu across Rayalaseema at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 20 April, from Vidarbha to south Tamil Nadu across Telangana at same level on 21 April, from northwest Madhya Pradesh to south Tamilnadu across interior Maharashtra and interior Karnataka at same levels on 22 April, from south Chhattisgarh to south Tamilnadu across Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Karnataka on 23 April and from central Madhya Pradesh to south Interior Tamilnadu & neighbourhood across interior Maharashtra and interior Karnataka at 0.9 km amsl on 24^th, from west Vidarbha to South Interior Karnataka across Marathwada and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 25 and 26 April.

RAINFALL SUMMARY

Category of the rainfall

WEEK SEASON

20.04.2023 TO 26.04.2023 01.03.2023 TO 26.04.2023 Number of

Sub-divisions

Sub-divisional % Area of Country

Number of Sub-divisions

Sub-divisional % Area of Country

LARGE EXCESS(LE) (+60% or more) 15 45% 19 63%

EXCESS (E) (+20% to +59%) 3 12% 4 10%

NORMAL (N) (+19% to -19%) 6 17% 5 10%

DEFICIENT (D) (-20% to -59%) 6 14% 5 16%

LARGE DEFICIENT (LD) (-60% to -99%) 5 11% 3 1%

NO RAIN (NR) (-100%) 1 1% 0 0%

Cumulative rainfall (mm) ^Actual_(mm) ^Normal_(mm) ^Departure_(%) ^Category ^Actual_(mm) ^Normal_(mm) ^Departure_(%) ^Category

EAST & NORTH-EAST INDIA 23.2 31.2 -26% D 122.6 162.1 -24% D

NORTH-WEST INDIA 12 6.5 +85% LE 74.4 76 -2% N

CENTRAL INDIA 8.5 2.4 +255% LE 41.6 15.6 +167% LE

SOUTH PENINSULA 16.4 9.8 +67% LE 58.2 44.2 +32% E

Country as a whole 13.5 9.7 +39% E 67.9 63.1 +8% N

 Weekly cumulative rainfall distribution is presented in Fig-1.

 Sub-division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is presented in Fig-2 and Fig-3.

 Sub-division wise daily distribution of realised Rainfall is shown in Table-1(A).

 Sub-division wise departure of realised Maximum temperature from Normal is shown in Table-1(C)

 State wise distribution of number of districts with Large-Excesses, Excess, Normal, Deficient, Large-deficient and no rainfall is shown in Table-2.

 Cumulative seasonal rainfall data during the corresponding weekly period for the last five years are given in Table-3.

 Sub-division wise realised weekly rainfall (in cm) is shown in Annexure-1.

FORECAST & WARNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK (27 APRIL TO 03 MAY, 2023)

 Detailed seven days Sub-division wise rainfall-forecast is given in Table-1(B).

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Fig-1

WEEKLY CUMULATIVE RAINFALL MAP

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Table-1 (A)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2023

S. No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 20 APR 21 APR 22 APR 23 APR 24 APR 25 APR 26 APR

1 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS D SCT ISOL D ISOL SCT D

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS* WS* WS* SCT WS ISOL FWS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS** FWS* FWS** SCT FWS** ISOL ISOL

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT SCT FWS* SCT FWS* ISOL ISOL

5 SUB-HIM. W. BENGAL & SIKKIM FWS SCT WS WS* ISOL ISOL ISOL

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D ISOL SCT FWS SCT WS* ISOL

7 ODISHA D ISOL ISOL WS** SCT ISOL FWS**

8 JHARKHAND D ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS ISOL

9 BIHAR D ISOL SCT ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL ISOL D

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS* WS* WS ISOL ISOL D ISOL

13 HARYANA, CHANDIGARH. & DELHI ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

14 PUNJAB SCT FWS ISOL ISOL D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS** WS* ISOL ISOL D D ISOL

16 JAMMU, KASHMIR & LADAKH WS** WS FWS SCT D ISOL ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D ISOL D D

18 EAST RAJASTHAN D D D D ISOL D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL D D ISOL D D ISOL

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D ISOL ISOL D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL D ISOL D D D

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D ISOL

26 VIDARBHA FWS WS SCT FWS ISOL ISOL FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL SCT ISOL WS* SCT FWS SCT

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL WS**

30 RAYALASEEMA D D SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D ISOL

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL D ISOL

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS*

36 LAKSHADWEEP D D SCT D D D D

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL

* ACTIVE (R/F 1^1/₂- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )

** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)