F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE
(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 28.09.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 25.09.2020.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 17 September to 23 September 2020, has been 40% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 72% in Central India, - Higher by 62% in South Peninsula
- Higher by 40% in East & North East India - Lower by 63% in North West India.
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June to 23 September 2020, has been 8% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 30% in South Peninsula - Higher by 16% in Central India,
- Higher by 3% in East & North East India and - Lower by 16% in North West India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 14 MET sub-divisions constituting 34% of total area - Normal in 18 MET sub-divisions constituting 52% of total area, and
- Deficient/large deficient in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 14% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 24 September 2020 was 147.29 BCM, which is:
- 99% of last year’s storage on the same day (24 September 2019) of 148.30 BCM.
- 115% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 128.21 BCM.
As per 1st Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 102.3% of the normal area under Khairf crops has been sown. During 2020-21, total area sown under Kharif crops in the country has been reported to be 1095.37 lakh hectares as compared to 1085.65 lakh hectares during 2019-20 (4th Adv. Estimates).
All-India progressive procurement
As on 25 September, during RMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Wheat is 389.85 lakh MT compared to 347.90 lakh MT during RMS 2019-20.
As on 25 September, during KMS 2019-20, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 513.29 lakh MT compared to 442.33 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2018-19.
This year in ongoing marketing season, procured quantity of Wheat & Rice has reached at All Time High level.
I. MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week ending 23 September 2020
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (17 Sept. 2020 to 23 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 23 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 09 sub-divisions and in 01 sub-division received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 23 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 14 met sub-divisions, normal in 18 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 04 sub- divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (23.09.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 23.09.2020) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 7.1 18.9 -63 LD 491.1 585.1 -16 N
Central 62.4 36.2 72 LE 1102.6 949.0 16 N
South Peninsula 68.4 42.1 62 LE 890.5 686.0 30 E
East & North-East 85.9 61.2 40 E 1387.1 1349.1 3 N
Country as a whole 50.3 36.0 40 E 918.3 849.2 8 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June to 23 September 2020
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 June to
23 SEP 2015
21 SEP 2016
20 SEP 2017
26 SEP 2018
25 SEP 2019
23 SEP 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 01 19 20
- 03 25 28
00 06 24 30
00 01 23 24
00 11 18 29
02 12 18 32 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
16 - 00 00 16
08 - 00 00 08
06 00 - 00 06
12 00 - 00 12
07 00 - 00 07
04 00 - 00 04
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 12% (-) 5% (-) 5% (-) 9% 6% 8%
Source: IMD
1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks Week-1: 24 - 30 Sept. 2020
Likely commencement of withdrawal of southwest monsoon from parts of Northwest India around 28th September.
Above normal day temperatures over northwest India and Indo-Gangetic plains
A brief wet spell of light rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir on 25th & 26th September, breaking the prolonged dry spell.
Above normal rainfall over northeastern states, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Below normal rainfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka & Kerala. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 24–30 Sept, 2020 is given in Annex-III).
Week-2: 01 – 07 Oct. 2020
Above normal rainfall over eastern parts of central India, east & northeast India.
Below normal rainfall over west coast & adjoining south Peninsula.
Further withdrawal of southwest monsoon likely from remaining parts of northwest India and parts of Central India.
Maximum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (24 September – 07 October, 2020)
Mostly above normal Temperature max over central and plains of northern India during week 1 and week 2.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 24 September 2020)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 147.29 BCM from the previous week’s level of 145.80 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 148.30 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 128.21 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country
Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 86 99 115
Last Week 85 100 116
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 87% on 24-09-2019, 75% on 24-09-2018, 64% on 24- 09-2017 and 69% on 24-09-2016.
Source: CWC
There were 119 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 04 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 00 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 00 reservoir with storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 25.09.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130
Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642 Estimated Requirement during Sept. 2020 2479 809 337 901 392 Cumulative Receipt upto25.09.2020 15549 5788 1755 5400 2486 Cumulative Availability upto 25.09.2020 16162 6587 1987 6484 2616
Cumulative Sales upto25.09.2020 15874 5828 1632 5901 2479
Closing Stock as on 25.09.2020 288 759 355 583 137
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Leaf folder reported at Trace to moderate intensity in 260 hectare area on Rice crop in East Sikkim district of Sikkim. Stem fly reported at above ETL in 1160 hectare area on Soybean crop in Indore, Khandwa, Khargone, Ujjain, Dewas, Sehore and Harda districts of Madhya Pradesh.
Maharashtra, Girdle beetle, Stem fly, Spodoptera and root rot reported at above ETL in 250 hectare area on Soybean crop in Wardha and Amravati districts.
Whitefly, Leaf spot & Para wilt reported at Low to moderate intensity in 460 hectare area on Cotton crop in Sirsa, Hisar & Fatehabad districts of Haryana.
V. Seeds Position:
The availability of certified/quality seeds in the country is 153.70 lakh quintal against the requirement of 150.52 lakh quintal. There is some deficiency reported in soybean seed which is met from Farm Save Seed, Private seed producing agencies and from surplus available with public sector agencies.
Reduction in standard of germination has also been done from 70% to 65% and then 65% to 60%
again in case of soybean by Seed Division, DAC&FW for Kharif-2020 to meet-out the demand of soybean seed.
VI. All India Crop Situation
Table –6
All India Kharif Crop Situation - 2020-21 (1st Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (4th Adv. Est.)
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Kharif Season
(DES)
Area sown reported
Absolute Change over
2019 1st Advance
Estimates 2020-21
% of Normal for whole
season
4th Advance Estimates
2019-20
Rice 397.29 401.05 100.9 390.19 10.86
Jowar 20.56 16.59 80.7 17.07 -0.48
Bajra 72.98 67.08 91.9 75.21 -8.12
Maize 74.70 77.69 104.0 76.84 0.85
Total Coarse
Cereals 184.85 176.17 95.3 183.78 -7.61
Total Cereals 582.14 577.22 99.2 573.96 3.25
Tur 44.29 46.16 104.2 45.43 0.73
Urad 35.53 37.50 105.6 36.55 0.95
Moong 30.49 35.04 114.9 34.76 0.28
Others 18.58 16.45 88.5 17.30 -0.85
Total Pulses 128.88 135.15 104.9 134.04 1.11
Total
Foodgrains 711.03 712.36 100.2 708.00 4.36
Groundnut 41.41 49.27 119.0 41.31 7.96
Soyabean 110.32 120.60 109.3 120.91 -0.32
Sunflower 1.64 1.26 76.8 1.28 -0.02
Sesamum 16.73 15.26 91.2 16.21 -0.95
Nigerseed 2.23 1.81 81.2 1.37 0.44
Castorseed 9.07 8.42 92.9 10.47 -2.05
Total
Oilseeds 181.39 196.61 108.4 191.54 5.07
Cotton 122.27 129.57 106.0 133.69 -4.12
Sugarcane 48.46 49.93 103.0 45.67 4.26
Jute & Mesta 7.60 6.90 90.7 6.75 0.15
All- Crops 1070.75 1095.37 102.3 1085.65 9.72
Source: DES
VII. Progressive Procurement as on 25 September 2020
Table 7.1: Rice
(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2019-20 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 25. 09.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 63.37 54.24 48.09
Telangana 91.92 74.54 51.86
Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49
Chhattisgarh 48.00 49.39 39.13
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.41
Kerala 4.50 4.82 4.65
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62
Maharashtra 12.70 11.57 5.80
Odisha 43.50 47.63 43.83
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 13.44 21.84 12.70
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33
Uttarakhand 5.00 6.82 4.62
West Bengal 26.00 16.32 19.50
All-India 529.05 513.29 442.33
Table 7.2: Wheat
(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (April– March)
Progressive Procurement as on 25. 09.2020
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03
Gujarat 1.25 0.77 0.05
Haryana 95.00 74.00 93.21
Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01
Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70
Punjab 135.00 127.14 129.21
Rajasthan 21.74 22.25 14.11
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 35.77 37.04
Uttarakhand 2.00 0.39 0.42
All-India 442.49 389.85 347.90
Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 24 – 30 September, 2020 for 36 Met Sub- Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 24 SEP 25 SEP 26 SEP 27 SEP 28 SEP 29 SEP 30 SEP
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWSTS SCT SCT FWS WS● WS● FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS●●●TS WS●●●TS WS● FWS FWS FWS SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS●●●TS WS●●●TS WS●● WS● FWS● FWS FWS
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS●●TS WS●TS WS● WS WS FWS FWS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●●TS WS●●TS WS● FWS SCT SCT SCT
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWSTS FWSTS SCT SCT FWS FWS SCT
7 ODISHA SCTTS FWS●TS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT● FWS●
8 JHARKHAND WSTS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS FWS●
9 BIHAR WSTS WS●●TS FWS● SCT ISOL SCT FWS
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS●●●TS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
12 UTTARAKHAND SCTTS ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
14 PUNJAB DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY
17 WEST RAJASTSAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOLTS ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWSTS SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH FWSTS SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU SCT ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
23 KONKAN & GOA WS WS WS FWS FWS SCT SCT
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWSTS FWS●TS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
25 MARATHAWADA SCTTS FWS●TS FWSTS SCT SCT SCT SCT
26 VIDARBHA SCTTS FWSTS FWSTS SCT SCT SCT SCT
27 CHHATTISGARH FWSTS FWS●TS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL FWS●TS FWSTS SCTTS SCT SCT SCT
29 TELANGANA SCT FWS●TS FWSTS SCTTS SCT SCT SCT
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL SCT FWSTS SCT SCT SCT SCT
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS FWS●TS FWSTS SCT SCT SCT SCT
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA SCT FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more) FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 25 - 29 September 2020:
