F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 30.03.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 26.03.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 18 March 2021 to 24 March 2021, has been 30% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 78% in Central India,
- Lower by 82% in East & North East India.
- Lower by 73% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 5% in North West India,
Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 24 March 2021, has been 41% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 67% in South Peninsula,
- Lower by 45% in East & North East India, - Lower by 37% in North West India, - Lower by 24% in Central India.
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 07 MET sub-divisions constituting 21% of total area, - Normal in 01 MET sub-division constituting 02% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 25 MET sub-divisions constituting 69% of total area - No rainfall in 03 MET sub-division constituting 08% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 25 March 2021 was 76.37 BCM, which is:
- 86% of last year’s storage on the same day (25 March 2020) of 89.16 BCM.
- 122% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 62.75 BCM.
As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown. Total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 648.41 lakh hectares as compared to 646.74 lakh hectares during 2019-20 (4th Adv. Estimates).
All-India progressive procurement
As on 26 March 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 462.57 lakh MT as compared to 406.73 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 24 March, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (18 March to 24 March 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 06 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 25 sub-divisions and no rain in 03 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 24 March 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 07 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 25 sub-divisions and no rain in 03 sub-division. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (24.03.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 24.03.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 13.3 13.9 -5 N 24.2 38.3 -37 D
Central 2.9 1.6 78 LE 4.9 6.5 -24 D
South Peninsula 1.0 3.7 -73 LD 3.6 10.9 -67 LD
East & North-East 2.9 16.2 -82 LD 23.9 43.3 -45 D
Country as a whole 5.7 8.1 -30 D 13.6 23.0 -41 D
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 24 March 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
23 MAR 2016
22 MAR 2017
21 MAR 2018
27 MAR 2019
25 MAR 2020
24 MAR 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 18 03 21
13 03 06 22
08 01 04 13
01 03 04 08
18 05 06 29
02 05 01 08 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
10 - 03 02 15
08 03 - 03 14
03 18 - 02 23
14 12 - 02 28
02 04 - 01 07
09 16 - 03 28
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 13% 14% (-) 35% (-) 36% 46% (-) 41%
Source: IMD
`
1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks
Week-1: 25 – 31 March, 2021 A fresh Western Disturbance very likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall over Western Himalayan Region with thunderstorm/ lightning over Himachal Pradesh &
Uttarakhand and thunderstorm, lightning & hail over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan
& Muzaffarabad during 28th - 29th March, 2021.
Under the influence of strong lower level southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/thundersquall/lightning and heavy falls at isolated places are likely over Northeast India during 29th March to 03rd April, 2021. It may cause landslides and low level inundation at some places during same period.
Isolated to scattered rainfall/thundershowers are very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &
Karaikal, Telangana, Kerala & Mahe and coastal & south Interior Karnataka during most days of the week 1
Cumulatively, above normal to above rainfall very likely over parts of northeastern states and Kerala and below normal over remaining parts of the Country.
Week-2: 01 – 07 April, 2021
Due to strong lower level southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal to northeastern states, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places are likely over this region during 1st half of the week 2. As a result above normal rainfall activity likely over this region.
Due to absence of any active Western Disturbance, rainfall activity is likely to below normal over northwest India. It is likely to be below normal to normal over remaining parts of the country.
Temperature
Week-1 & 2 : 25 March – 07 April, 2021
Maximum temperatures are very likely to rise gradually by 4-6°C over Northwest India during first half of the week 1. Gradual rise in maximum temperatures by 3-5°C over most parts of Central India and by 2-4°C over most parts of East, West and peninsular India during first half of the week 1.
No heat wave conditions very likely over the country during next 4-5 days except Saurashtra &
Kutch and Konkan & Goa where heat wave conditions are very likely at isolated pockets during 25th - 27th March and over north Gujarat region during 27th - 28th March, 2021.
During week 2, due to likely dry weather over most parts of the country (outside northeast India), the maximum temperatures are very likely to rise gradually over most parts of the country. Hence, normal to above normal maximum temperatures likely over northwest, east India and east coast. These are likely to be below normal by 1-2°C over north Peninsular &
adjoining central India
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 25 March 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 76.37 BCM from the previous week’s level of 80.37 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 89.16 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 62.75 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 109 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 12 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 05 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 44 86 122
Last Week 46 87 123
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 51% on 25.03.2020, 32% on 25.03.2019, 30% on 25.03.2018 and 34% on 25.03.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 26.03.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124
Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during March 2021 1269 413 183 633 276
Cumulative Receipt upto 26.03.2021 18185 3720 1439 5926 2303
Cumulative Availability upto 26.03.2021 18416 4172 1696 6356 2427
Cumulative Sales upto 26.03.2021 17872 3985 1571 5650 2238
Closing Stock as on 26.03.2021 544 187 125 706 189
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Rugose Spiraling Whitefly reported at moderate intensity in 52 hectare of Coconut in Ramanagara, Tumkur and Bangaluru ruraldistricts of Karnataka.
For control of Rugose Spiraling Whitefly (Aleurodicusrugioperculatus) in Coconut, farmers were advised to install yellow sticky traps in orchards to trap adults and application of 1% starch solution on leaflets to flake out the sooty moulds and Isariafumosorosea
@5ml/1lt of water spray. In severe case spray of neem oil 0.5% or NSKE 5% is recommended and avoid spraying in any form of insecticides.
V. Seeds Position:
Rabi 2020-21 sowing seasons is over. Requirement & Availability of seeds for Kharif 2021- 22 season may be available after 20th March, 2021.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 24 March, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Gram, Moong and Safflower.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Arhar, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.
VII. All India Rabi Crop Situation - 2020-21 (2nd Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (4th Adv. Est.) Table 7.1
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020 This Year
2020
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019
Wheat 303.28 315.77 104.1 314.51 1.26
Rice 41.78 45.32 108.5 47.62 -2.29
Jowar 33.40 25.55 76.5 30.05 -4.50
Maize 17.37 16.75 96.5 20.39 -3.64
Barley 6.38 6.92 108.5 6.02 0.90
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 49.22 86.1 56.45 -7.23
Total Cereals 402.20 410.31 102.0 418.57 -8.26
Gram 92.77 107.15 115.5 101.74 5.41
Urad 8.93 9.06 101.4 8.48 0.58
Moong 9.86 9.29 94.3 10.40 -1.11
Lentil 14.24 14.98 105.2 13.16 1.82
Others 19.09 17.61 92.2 15.58 2.03
Total Pulses 144.88 158.09 109.1 149.35 8.73
Total Foodgrains 547.07 568.40 103.9 567.93 0.47
Rapeseed& Mustard 59.44 68.53 115.3 67.76 0.77
Groundnut 7.24 7.34 101.4 7.59 -0.25
Safflower 1.15 0.49 42.4 0.44 0.05
Sunflower 2.37 1.32 55.7 1.15 0.17
Linseed 2.74 2.34 85.2 1.88 0.46
Total Oilseeds 72.94 80.01 109.7 78.82 1.20
All- Crops 620.01 648.41 104.6 646.74 1.67
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 26
thMarch, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 26. 03.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 42.00 29.57 32.30
Telangana 50.00 32.66 31.55
Bihar 30.00 23.40 9.59
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 3.25 2.07 1.97
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 12.00 8.05 7.04
Odisha 37.00 42.22 34.88
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 17.00 17.58 13.16
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.17
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81
West Bengal 23.80 10.76 8.42
All-India 518.25 462.57 406.73
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 25 - 31 March, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 25 MAR 26 MAR 27 MAR 28 MAR 29 MAR 30 MAR 31 MAR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT L ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT L FWS FWS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT L FWS L # FWS● FWS● 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D ISOL SCT L FWS L # FWS● FWS● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL L # ISOL L D ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D ISOL L ISOL L # D D
7 ODISHA D D D ISOL L ISOL L # D D
8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D
9 BIHAR D D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND D D D ISOL L ISOL L D D
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D D
14 PUNJAB ISOL D D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D SCT L # ISOL L D D
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH D D D FWS L # SCT L D D
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D D D D D D D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL D D D D D
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL L D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL L D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D
35 KERALA & MAHE SCT L ISOL L SCT L SCT L SCT L SCT ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT L D SCT L SCT L SCT L D D
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall L Thunderstorm with Lightning # Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 26 – 30 March 2021:
