! " # $ % & ' ( ) *+ ,-
$ 012 3 4 "5 6 7 87 90%:
) :
24 / 4 / 88 - :
16 / 7 / 88 (
; : + 0=
9 0>
+ ?.
9 @ %A B:
07
@ 5
9 C0
# C >
D A E F>
# G&
0
",2 H0I
# . 6K
% L M7 6K02 0N :
H0I
# H0N 7
H0N A L M7 .
7 07 2 O : ,2 6K H0N
I 0KPQ
: R S=
:
"%>
$ S # 2 0 T2 47 O
% K
U # V H0N
# WQ ' DK % 5 : 7 7 X Y: 0 0:
& # Z U
[5 V 2 0 V 2 : 9 @
$ K0>
6K H0N 07
\M A : C 0
# P] >07
A
> 2 .
9 : $ ]^
:
$ S # + ?.
H0N A L M7 0
",2
@ 5 9 C0 D A E
* : 66708307 Email: [email protected]
!
" #
$
% & $ ' ()"*
( + ,- . +/ ! 01&' 2 /
"&3-"
( "
)
+ 4 () &5, ) 2 -6#
$ 7"
/ 2
"58)
$ ( / 6- 9, -+:5,-
; ,- (* <
. 6-
=#
)
> %
"
8)
?-"*-
"
Arabs` Spring)
( (
! . A - B (C D 6 E#
+!
. F+
G 5:H%
6 6- / I"J 2
> , ) F DK7- (
L3
$ : "
2 &H) 6- ) ) A5HM%
=#
+& - %
$ N '", N+!
+%- . O8 A "
$ 2+P A "
(D"J . 6- 2-+5)-
="4
"< D 2 K&
.
= N !-
) Q F DK7- 2"&R&S
+!
" ; T5)-
% & $ ' N "5H3
$
!
" #
"
Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative )
N )(
. ) J 7K' 6-
=#
" ) I"J
% & $ '
"U 1)
(
! . A - I"J .
I"J / 2
"R
" = V
+%$
= 9, )
"
The Middle East Partnership Initiative- Barcelona Process)
)(
W+/
X - 2 Y
Z(, &, (* 5P-
$
2 54-
" 6 ) )
% 3 2- . 6- 0"5H3 F , HD-
AM' ()"E+<
$
% &D- 01&' 2-") (% R%", C$
/ 2 -+ "J
?"E [%
. Z+
) -"P- +%+ # .
O/
(% 6 A - I"J / ) (% R%", Z>-+7
2$
.
=+ # C$
([&!
Z\-"*
26$"&S 2 /
?1D ]-
= :C
$
= ^, _ ,-"/
('") 6-
=-":/
?"*
( :
") -L%- 6- 0"5H3
"
K/
([&!
"
) Shi'ite crescent
P (
+!
6-
=#
= 6
= &[&!
`&9' a
= % . P
-"4 +%"&3 .
= .-
$ bS 6-
!L3 : "
c / 6- I"J F DK7- c&5&9S de
`&9' Za
O&H%
" 2 /
8)
?-"*-
"
f&) 6-
"/
2 P Z"R M.
[&!
A&M%
A "g) -
5 "3")
$ 5:C- ) F+!
? .", (
!
; 2 M.
. (% 6 -"4 ) ( RC- 2-") F DK7-
+! ) . A - C (S , S ) A - f,"S ,- .
> P"
I"J F DK7- (, &,
2 / M.
?"*
N6 D () P
`&9' a
2-")
= &[&!
A - Z / M.
(/$"3 . f&) 6-
"/
N$"3
"R h"[
Z -+:5,-
? .",
$ F Y&[:
= 6 , 5
-"4 5 "3 Z+%- V N )
i ,- )
"Q%
( +, I"J N !-
-+5)- ( /+& - -
2-") A5!- 2 Y bj
"5M&)
2-")
= &[&!
^&R%-")
$ / $ 5, (
:k 2 P")
!-L3 -
% ! (C '
= ".
Fl -
N+g5 6- +8[
X - 2 Y (, &,
" 6 )
$
>+*
c . )
"k.-
> "
2-") () &5, ) mD
A&&[
! %", P
N "5H3
"
=+!
2 Y a
$ (3 '",
$ n C )
" D
=+!
)-
)
/ C$
N+!
,- . A - C
") A - h"
- 5,- ,- . / (
Z (M % A&&[
N+ .
N+ +S 2 / A&) (99 C- 5
$
") A& / Za ,-
" * (5 / [&!
)
=- * (T 6-
o' ! 2 / -L3"&p
") q - P 2- -
"k.- (5&94-
[&!
r * ( . + . 0$
m& g A -
C r&9g - 5g ) N j5,- 6- +/- ! (^
$ (%-+&
,- .
b&d 8 P T " # OM!
": - % 2003 (J (% ^,
"
H, (9 c . )
(,-"T
"
National Endowment for Democracy)
6 E#(
N 3+
+ +P T " # :4
% & $ ' -
A& V s "M
".
:
$ 70b d 60
"2 7 6K dR % : + '
"
$ 2 7
\0%&]
9 'X + eV
f- 0:
$ 9 'X A
K
% 0]
U 6K F>
. 2
' : A
>
K
# 7 : 9 'X
$X K >
,
@ A 7 9 07
. F
] B A :
U A
9 07
\0%&]
H?
9 @
% :
S">
.
\0KPQ 6K g=
"
2003) Bush,
.(
bS 6- FK D 11
": 5t, , 2001 Z A - N 3+
) FK ( Q%
N-" / +!
$ 6-
=#
bS u <
"
r& g (,-"T
"
5, .
=- -+ 5, &, T " #
( -"4
"3 .
= /
= 6
" 9X
$ % C
# -$ 1)
"
Le Nouvel Observateur)
:D (
)
> &9 $ 5H ".
William Kristol)
(T (
6- W$"[
A "
2 /6 ) Q g . Z T " # A& V
! %
" : ...
= M -
Q5%- - (,-"T rk
)$
>
% & $ ' -
"&3-"
"
) Z 5H ".
2003 .(
= j5,-
(C+/
Stephen Hedley)
A&M% P (
$ M
& - (9 T " # N $
0 ) 1&%
% A&5H^
f / (5& - )
N !- ) 0 -13 [,
(% H%-
= 8P
?"*
$ +&X 6-
=#
>K*-
!-
": 6
$ % ' e 7 B&K 02 6% K
K 9 @
$X 4K e2 7
6 ....
: 4 9 &7 '
+?hS I
: 0% 7 0 3Z Q
$ #
@ 5
"
Hedley, 2004)
.(
q4-$
Z Fl - N+g5
&H) f&S
"
$ 6- r -$- / 90 ) J 2+P ) A - u <
( +&M +%- . 2-") md
=+ #
") FKTM 2 5' , Z
7 ^
+!
OH $"
$
/ N$"3 2 -"3 & ) + ) ( DK7-
$+g - ) -"P-
!-L3 .
"5M&) A - N 3+
w: "
)
2 Y + +P c&59S de bS
6- x P
", ) . Y54-
# ( + +P - 2-") Fl - N+g5
? X -
(
".
. ) P$
ZA - 0K 2 / N !-
u 4$
p D 11
": 5t, 2001 Z N - /
F P A&d S
& /- -"4 + 5!-
$ C$- 2 / , &, (P ' T " # - -
"R r&TM
( +% - . ( -
= $ /
Amy Hawthorne) (
0K 2 / T " # - N $
= 5 &9.
2-") 0"5H3
(,-"T
= 8P
?"*
2" - (*"
( +%- . ) 5*- 2$
& 6 2 / X - (,-"T A -
= 6
"s ,
, &, s , A& S
"
(4 ) +%+%
(C D .
=- " 5C$
"&3 (9 *
q - y )"
" ) , &, s ,
"l ) +% )
; + % /
& - Z2-
j%
$
OH $"
Hawthorne2001) (.
6- 11
": 5t, , 2001 ) +[) V S$ -
$ V T " # zD : y )"
)
$#")
M 2 / +!
OH $"
% & $ ' P
2+
+!
$ )
=- * (T 6- (97- A "
Zr9*
&[<$
> Q%
/ (5 TD 2 A -
/ M.
$ X&5%
>$1C F DK7- (, &,
$ (* 5P- 8%#
P -"4
"3 . A& V 2+%$
8 { 5'- )
% & $ ' N"5H3
2 [ s9
=#
!-+%
$ N"5H3 2-
" -"
- F &) - (, &, T " #
") 3
"
$ 6-
=#
bS IK 7-
"
% & $ ' N "5H3
$ !
" #
"
B-$
. F$- 2003
$ M
& - (9 C$
0 )
r l r 0 M.
- )
> X%- F DK7- (, &,
$
2 54-
% & $ ' A& V
= &)
!- : ' 0
$ %
$ ,%
K0 X K 7 A 9 07 K + 0 T2 YZ7
03K
$ 1>
0 ] : ...
. 9 &7 '
@ YZ7 9 6K I 9
] A0
' 9
&
9 07
# 9^ 5 j K 9 @
+0- B@ 0 X
: 9 0 '
: 3
4T#
A
$ #
@ 0:
7 - A
$ >
9 S2 7 ] M
0 ]
2003) Rice,
.(
j/
N f&S
"
6- T%#
I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
I"
Z ! A5R !-$
D (, ") I"J
"
2| -"5,- f&S
$
? ) 2 -6#
"
Forward Strategy of Freedom)
) (
$
>K*-
".
.
"R
O e 2 / -"3 -+54-
"3- V ,$
T " # Z r g + /- ^%
ICG, 2004, p.1) +!
.(
bt, ) N :T I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
")
", 8% )6 5 - . 0"R%
( T " #
$ Z(9&d-",-
2-"P- I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
) J m&4 ) :%
" m g
& -
$
"F :p
A - N6 D
N "5H3 ( & -"}P rTM5
6- 2 / M.
= 9H ) . X&5%
( &9 *
$ ( -"P-
"m g
& -
$
"F :p
% & $ ' U 1)
r:4 6-
"/
1&V
"
& - 2-")
~ ) r&d-",-
"
" $
&:k (% |/
Fl -
"N+g5
)
" . 5H/
21."
N+ - I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
F :*
6-
"&&}
q<$
P ( 5:
")
> 8j
"&&}
2- - 5,-
" )
) Z2+&C / 1383
.(
$ ?"* = 8P 2-") (C " A& V 2-"P-
:* =# W-"J- 2 / M.
( ( 9 1 "4 y ' 6- 2 &H) 6- +!
.
= ^, A&M% P
$ M
& - (9 T " # FKTM
T " # (. D 6-
=#
) . M 2 &H) 6- 2 8 T)-"' (5H $"
5' ,
/ C$
2 -"4
- :
"
: 4 9 &7 '
+?hS I
: 0% 7 0 3Z Q
$ # 5
@ .
&K 02
@ S >
:
@ 5
9 3Z Q h
K >
"
Hedley, 2004)
.(
" 6$
P ' 0 ) 1&%
A& , HM%
> 6 t , N+ #
Forum for )
the Future
>K*-(
!-
" . ) OE
>
FKTM 2-
F DK7- )
+ - - -+&S + . . ..
.
O9 +&.
. O . +%$
u$"!
N+!
F DK7- 2-")
T " # 6-
& /-
&H) - '")
" ,-
Rice, 2006)
.(
a ,- A - ") Z
6- (D , + ) (5 &4 "/ ) . ) + 5[ T " # C$
+% ! IK7- F +4 2 / 5' ,
.
$ T " # = & = 6 A - . ( K5'- 6$") S$ -
( # . ) "Tj A& / 6- (! % ".
i ". r& g $ X - - (,-"T $6 *- ) =-
) S$ - F [C N6 D F DK7- > X%- ) / M. :P- $ ( Q% 2$"&% 2"&3 . (
!-+% ( P =-+ V .
T " # bT*") _"3 rT $ A&C"5 - $ +%-
J. Michael Grieg and )
Andrew J. Enterline
M/$|S > X%- (J (
( . + 5'- "S •95^ 2 / M. (, ") ) r j
$ [5,- N $ V (,-"T N $
+! m 1 (* % ) $ r& g 8%# ) ", x P .
f/$|S A - 8%#
) O8 9€H 9 P 6- $ u < A - ) y : - u 5 rd H (, ")
S =-1&
+ 5'- "S = C# $ AS-e = V ([ - P (,-"T 2 -+
.
=-1& (, ") 8%# W+/
(9& g (,-"T 2 -+ S
Imposed Democracy)
=# ) M - ) P ) % & $ ' (
) . q P = 3 ": % 2-"3 -+54- 2 / M. ) (,-"T r& g $ m 1 ' 2+ )
( % 2 -" - +
+ ) / M. A - (,-"T 2 -+ S 2-") . +% ". 1! 3 - +%
"/ (, ,- FKTM ) (,-"T y : - =-1& $ N+! 5 "3 "Q% M. "/ { ' &[<$
"&3 -"4 P M.
. Kk f 9€H \-"* $ " = 5H% } - /
j J 2 2-
Enterline and Greig, 2008)
.(
(,-"T . (9& g 6- (T ) -+[) Z+ 5j3 A^, =# 6- $ A -
A&) w)-$ N6 D 2+P zD :
/ C$
F +4 ) 2
Fl - 9 P 6- $ (P ' 2 /
+! +: N+g5 .
f M3 6- ('") . A - ") r . W 4$ ) 1&% ?"* =-"Tj !$ 6- 2 &H) /
N+! X - 2
6- bS 2 / M. (, &, 2 Y 11
Z "3 rT! (P ' N - - 6- (! % Z": 5t,
9 8%# 5*- ) . (% 6 N j5,- =# 6- + %- 5) 2 /
. +
; 2 -" - 9€H &9.
( % +%+
. r& g 6- (M,"S ) , S \-"* b9X (9[ N+ % $ m) , 6 : & [C-
!- 8•- Z\-"* (,-"T :
....
6 Q B 0 7
%K >
: C 0
>
# KX l 0
#
8O m 0:
KX Q d
0 A n @ 90 T2
@ 5
9 70 ' oK0N
"5 &
M X K m # p Q 0@
Y 0Q -
...
qK0.
B # 7 . 0]
O 7
A BK 7 r %, 9
BK e ..
.
) Z‚& [C- 2003
.(
"&) ",
%6$
([&!
w, C- 1&%
A - N+& * - (
".
.
" , ,-
+ ?.
# 0 Vs2 6 7
"5 A 0% 7 ' 03K
" 4 . ) P$
ZA - 2$
(9TM A -
" - ( % +
$ + 5[
) .
= &[&!
r.
6- F DK7- N j5,-
H)
&
+% ".
) Z2" XC- 1385
.(
KP 6$"&
N+ % [&!
= C S A "g)
$ Y*
&[ P
\ C- 1&%
")
A - N+& * )
" . 4:
0 B : : + ?.
7 g-
$ S # .
+ ?.
F>
# 9 @
I 2 9 ' K = 7
$ S #
" 7
) Z6$"&
1385
.(
4$ "&j, . 5T% A - = &) ) $ A "g) rd H ) N !- ) 1&% A "g) ?"}
"
" *
F- ,
$
>-+7
"R M3")
" LS H&%
"
Z
"Q% 8•- A& V
".
:
+ ?.
9 >
e>
# ' r A .
7
% 6 'R 9 @
> A
9 07 + ?.
# 7 . K
$t
$ = S 6K0,7
7 ) Z7 ' ( . + ?
# '
$ "@
G&
"
v0#
9 0=
" :0 b U
7 6K S : wK 4 5 B1
= S 6K0,7 9 07 7 K
7 x @ A WQ '
;
@ ' e
$ "@
>
9 h 6 7
"5 F
7 :
$t 7
>
X
)
#
$ Z(9*
1385
.(
c 5T%
(, ,-
=#
,- . ) r&C T%#
( 2 / M.
„6 D
`&9' a ) 2 g%
)
=- * O/
= &S (, &,
$ ( Q%
T " # 5' ! N+!
+%-
$ O8
"
6- Z=#
r
?"E )
…jD
= "P
>- #
$
=-6 - 2e"%- 6- Z C$
Fl - N+g5 (9 ) X - g )
% 3 2- .
A - q - )
" ' 6-+%- Z
!-+%
.
> X%- ( RC- { '
$ 2- -"T c&
I"J
„+ *
T " # 2-") A - .
") , r7- ) ( 5:
: l$- Z
? V V 2 / 5' ,
(9[
A -
TD / -
…jD .
;+
&% p Z )
> X%- ( DK7- +%- 5)
6- (5&*$"M r) 4
:4
= &
9
' - '")
!
$ kC p Z
=6- 2- 4 2-
- ) qj%
=-" - O/") +%1%
. + !
=- 5) I"J
(9g
".
= F DK7- -
A& / 5,- () 6 -
".
.
r) Z
=-":/
?"*
1&%
0K +% ".
) A& /
% 8) 2 8!K 2 P 2-")
> X%-
F DK7- -
) 2 g%
"5 . ' +% $#
. +8[&C$
A "g) b%-"j .
(5& - A <
2 $"<
=+%- ' F DK7- (, &,
+&.
".
" . 5*- O -
"/
2 M.
+ )
)
> 3 2 / , ' F DK7- (, &,
- :%
"+ .
Sheikh Salman, 2004)
.(
" 6$
P '
C$
0 ) 1&%
bS 6-
=#
f / N+ #
= - ) d- - (/ 3+
" + +P
>K*-
!-
":
Fl - 5 N+g _ ( + . . (,-"T
$ F DK7- )
(% ,#
) , ( % + #
$
"/
D
8%#
) , 2 /$"&%
(9g .
= /- ' A - 9€H + ! ) m g +/- ' +!
$
% ) ,
Fl -
"N+g5
Rice, 2006)
.(
(
=- 6- A -
= ^, A& V X&5%
"3 . (.+%- bS 6- I"J
F DK7- Z
Fl - N+g5 ) A - X&5%
+&, .
% 3"/
2"&&}
&[<$
P l$- Z
( +%- ( /$"&%
- ) F +4 +% ,") .
=-+ V ) q T " # 36 , + 5H&%
$
&% p Z )
"&&}
(5&[<$
.
\-"*
X - +!
$ 5D- F +4 ()
= &[&!
M.
ZA "g)
=6- 2-
) qj%
=-" -
$ )
"<
= 5H)"*
O/") +/- ' ' . 6- A -
$ Z l 5D- ( -
A&)
?"E
$
=-", 2 / M.
()"*
")
", 9€H F DK7-
$
$+D
$ N6 D 2 /
=#
F 7
; " LS
*", F DK7- D
> X%- ) N :T f.$"
".
$ h * f&) 6- rd H (, ,-
")
F * <
r&:4 6- "R 06 #
+&.
F 7
" LS .
u X
= † /
" . A % %
"
) Gerd Nonneman
N+& * 6-")-(
".
W e (, ") 2-") 6 / Z
!-+% P$ >6l 2 Y % & $ ' =# FKTM $ (,-". 0"5H3 ) y )" zD : .
2$ 5*- ) ZA - P$ ) 2 / .
( . "3 F 7 5!L3 / &H) + !6 -
=-
(C P- '") -
". o^M =# - 6- ( .
(J Kk
/ ,
"&'- 2 6-
= 5j3 $ (,-".
"5M&) B-$ ( -"3"kT .
(C D +%+ 5[ ?"* =-"Hj 6- ('") . ,- (C D A -
N $ A - (J .
"
" +[
)
( .
+ V 6- ( [ +%- ()1D
+! ) 5!- ( -"3"kT ( -"3 (
Z "5M&) B-$
"
-"
&J
"
) (,-"T (
"T% 6 ) - ' N- P r) 4 rT! ) 6 /
Nonneman, 2003)
.(
! "# $ % & ' () *+ $ 0 -13
" 2003
[, (% H%-
= 8P
?"*
"
X&5%
"3 . a ,-") F & g
> X%-
ZN+!
= 8P
?"*
6-
" ,
= %
"
deficit) (
`%
(
") :
=-+
;2 -6#
&) 2 T
;$
= %
2+ %- Z(, &,
2 54-
$ (, &,
= %6
NDP and RBAS, pp.24-27)
.(
I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
(*+
) . W+/
=#
6- A&)
= ") A - ,
= %
% & $ ' U 1)
,- ) A -
& "
Z F :p
$
& - [ P (% 8P ) N| $ T " # - A&
$
…jD . + . 6-
= 6
"P- 2- I"J
% & $ ' ZU 1)
Fl g r) 4 5*- )
u 4$
, &S . F :p- ( + . . W+/
N+ *
=#
[%
6- () !#
) . f&S ( &) ( +!
)
&[<$
/ TD
2 2 / M.
()"*
u 4$
=#
( 5D ,- .
")
"p- A - F -+4-
/ C$
2 6-
!$
8 2 5!L3
? .", F :C
( "
, N+&M.
$
= &[&!
)
=- * N$"3 g O5, 2 $+D 6- 2 Y
",
$ c
5!L3 ' B ' +%+!
. 2- ,
\-"*
. ) r&C (% R%", Z>-+7
&[<$
X%#
( -"&&}
(, ,- Z
"R 2 / M.
N6 D
`&9' a 1&%
A - F-"&}
r) 4 P ) .
&[<$
[, (% H%-
= 8P
?"*
. -13 0
/ ,
2 2002 2004
= 6 , r9 +g5
&H)
X 8) %
•&7 +!
Z 2 $+D :8)
$ / I"J 2 r) 4 :4
& 6 06 #
$ :8)
&[<$
(* 5P- )
-"P- + # .
H, N+ #
$
" H,
= 5j3
& / (,-"T
"
C 4 I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
)
2-"P- / I"J ( O8 , s
>-+4-
".
+%
. W+/
N+ * A - F H, 06 #
2 /$"&%
=- P 2-")
†%#
. 6-
=#
) A "
(,-"T
"&:[
( Z+!
) . ( * <
.
A - N 3 . 2 / (!6 # :%
( Z+!
A "
( Y ) .
= %- P
= 9H 06 # ( +%+
% RV ( Y
c& -"T (3+%6 N ".
$ 2 8!6 - ()"E
- ) F 7 c
5H) r .
5 " LS
$ q4-$
2-") N - - q - P
= 9H 2-")
=- $ + +P f&S
(3 # + )
.
O8 HM% A "
/
y : - . (
O& 5H ) I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
r&TM ( Z !
HM%
2 /
%l ,
> , )
> 6 t , N+ #
,- . m:J m -
=-", N$"3 8 (, + 9 #
-13") (
! . A - HM%
/ O&
2 / O8 5 "3 N+!
$ B ^
&H) 2-") f&S
")
I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
> X%- (
! . (T 6- O8 A "
HM%
2 / Z> 6 t , HM%
)
" . q P 2+ )
" ,
> 6 t ,
")
", rd H O8 m - +!
6- 9 P +&.
")
) HM%
y ) ( :
") b&,
\$+ 7 N+ # ) 100
= &9&
l
", 2-") c . )
N$"3 / 2 (%+
. HM%
A&
N+ . 2 / (97-
",
\$+ 7 N+ # A&&[
+%+!
.
c .
= 3+ .
&C$- ) A - H, T " # ) 50
= &9&
l ( Z
"
) 20
= &9&
l ( Z f.-"
) 20
= &9&
l ( Z
$ _ %- ) c
= &9&
l (
= /
> 6 t , o^M
+%+!
$
& ) 1&%
+8[5 +%+!
9
= &9&
l
"R - A&
. +
Chair Summary of Manama )
Conference, 2005
.(
*+
, - .) !
H, N+ # D"J ( U 1) - )
"=- *
2+%$"8!
"
2 / M.
) -"P-
$#
. N+ * A "
zD :
=#
) A "
(,-"T
$
…jD
\ D 2+%$"8!
y )"
,- .
* X
/ I"J ( . A - C 4
$ )
", 2 -L3
= "X I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
)
> X%- Z+&,
&H) 6 ,-
$ ( %
=- F-"&p (9.
8%#
-
") u % 0"R%
$ (5D
&[<$
> "
2 / M.
% N+
"3 . 2- , A - ZF -+4- rd H
O8
"
('") 6- A - / M.
) u 4$
, &S . F-"&p 8%#
")
! %",
= &[&!
) -"
m& *
"
$ N "5H3
"
; ) + % /
2 -13") F ) ^5%-
b9X
$ 2 /- ! Z"8!
N6 P- b&,
&[ P 2 / (, &,
$ M5%-
%6$
.
" 6 ) F-"&p ('") 6- A - F -+4-
")
= &[&!
2 / M.
Z\-"*
ZA "g)
= 5H)"*
$ . N !- ( O& . :
0 0K T " #
$ c . A - M.
)
= < [ (4-"*
5 8%
P (% R%",
>-+7
$ X - 2 Y + +P +!
. bS 6- y ,
>-+7 A - M +%- . P$
2 Y
A&) (99 C-
>6l Z y"!
2 $"<
2-")
> X%- F DK7- Z ,-
A&)
= < [
"R
2 / M.
F 4
"3 . q4-$
A -
&[4-$
) D-"7 6-")- +!
.
\-"*
(9*
OE
0K
$ F+/ X
=-$-"
5 8%
A - r * (P ' ) . H%-
> Q%
>-+7 - w4 , . + .
A - 6"J
"Tj ) 6"J (, Hg
= &
-"Tj !$
=
?"*
$ 2 &H) 6-
= &[&!
"R
2 / M.
bS 6- y ,
>-+7 B-$
.
$ M
& - (9
\-"*
, S ) (M,"S
N ) ( -"&&}
. bS 6- y ,
>-+7 2-") [ P ([&!
\-"*
X - ZN+!
A& V 8•-
!- : 4eO ' + ?.
$ S # 8K 0#
C :0
%A 7 0 07 y yS7 '
$X
7 + . 0%&]
' 07
>
0:
. S">
9 @ S #
&7 7
>
y X
2 0 Vs2 B1
07 + " " 2
%# P]
. 6 z"@
Z#
9 @ 90
"
y K
S # 1{
% K :
"2 1 K
% + ?.
I
) Z([&)"C- 1385
.(
Z\-"* 6- "&E ) y ,
>-+7 f&) 6-
"/
P
"&p ' -
= 5H)"*
= M%
- .
= †%#
.
(C -")
".L5 (
" !
"
+[) 6- y , Z>-+7
"
f&) 6- c
= &9&
[&!
(4-"*
. 2-")
% A&5H^
) (3+%6 O,-"
- ! * - ) ) J
%- -6#
(
= ) &' 2 /
\-"*
") S N ".
% ) Z+
= &
) f&) 6- ( 900 -1/
[&!
(/ ! S 2 [,
. 2 /+% &S 6
6- Y4 )
= &[&!
\-"*
Z+% - + +S % +M%
. A - f #
" 6
"5H. ' ) ( - # -+ /
"+!
Bradley, 2005)
.(
) 5*-
('") Z A - F-"&&}
"
8 f % (:/L :%
.
& /- T9)
r * (, &, 1&%
") A -
H 9€
<-
;+!
( [ ) , 2"&3 F +4 ) , 9&
WK5d-
\-"*
(J ) ^5%- ( c& -"T
$
8•
& ^!
2 / Z(, &, (
$ 2"T [&!
. N"5H3 6 7"
I"J T -
$ 7-
=#
- O/-"
" ' ,
) Z([&)"C- 1385
.(
6K0,7 )
"Q%
( +&, A - M.
- )
=- * ( RC- 2-") (, ")
"&p F DK7-
(, &,
") [ P 2 / M.
`&9' a
? ^5%- N ".
+%- . N 3+
Z= &)"E
"
A -
„" 1P
cV . (
H%- )
=- * 2 RC- (5 TD 2-")
-")
=- U 1) ' ) O e 2 /
2 5T
?"*
( I"
"+! )
Cohn, 2003)
.(
( l g .
‚ ,
> X%- F DK7- (, &,
6- A - N $
A - M.
) u 4$
S Z , &
( .
=#
- ) F 7 RC- ( 2-")
> X%- F-"&&}
2 / M.
"R ()"*
$
7 ^
`&9' a
$#
. F DK7-
$+g
> X%- N+!
A "g) u X
-"&p ( :k
") u <$- (9'-
$
&[<$
(, &, A - M.
!-
$ )
X - 2 Y 6 ) (, &,
$ 2 -"4") (5!#
(9
$ M36 )
= jC ^ ) g7
&C [ 2 /
(* 5P-
$ (, &, A "g)
"X
! +
) 1."
`&9^C- F ,- +9C Z‚&X& -"5,l- 2001
.(
6- 9 P (
=- )
( M36 ) (% C S
. 1975 rg N+!
; )
~ }C-
= % 4
‚% &MD$
;(5& - j*
>
1000
(%-+%6
;(, &, A $+
$ ) / (,"S A5!-L3 M
(9
;A "g) N6 P- M36 ) )
(
= < [ 2+&[:
B ' 6-
; M.
r&TM 5& .
\ D
"M) b9X
( M
Z f %
= %6 [ P
$ N6 P- 2 1 %
= %6 F ) ^5%- 2 /- !
8 - "8!
$
= C S
Human Rights )
Watch, 2005
;(
"&&}
> Q%
2"& - )
; 9,
5%-
? ^ 2 Y*- + +P
€&/
C$
) Y*
"5M&)
= &[&!
:H%
)
; 5!L3
$+7
= "
2 *-
&[) ) / ( "g) 2 / (%-" -
; :
N6 P- 2 -13") ( &t/-
; A&&[
2 Y*- b9X
( M
+ +P A - M.
6- 2 , N ! S
")
a ,-
• %
• %– ) ( &%
([&!
$ ( &%
( , ) N$K*
YD + % (% 3 6-
"R
&94- / (
$ 2 -13") F ) ^5%-
N !-
".
.
% A&5H^
F ) ^5%- 2 /- !
"8!
(J
$ 9D"
N , 2002 -13") +!
.
/ N$"3 2 h [ C$
A "g) : "
+ 5H%-
"k.- 2 / 1 % '
- -$
2 /- !
"8!
+ % . A&5H^%
F ) ^5%- (% C S
A - M.
1&%
S b 6-
!L3 c 1%
) (, , 6- Kg%-
Z=#
$ 9D"
2 /6$
24
$ 31
":5.- 2002 ) -13"
! + . A&5H^%
F ) ^5%- b9X
= 3+ % A "g)
) , 9&
8V N$"3 N+ *
•C ^ C$
6- 9 P
&[ P
\ $ (9 ( K,-
O "g -"4
"3 - A& / N$"3 F ) ^5%- ,
2006 ) F +4 ."!
".
$ G : "
( &%
6- (,".
2 /
= C S -
) ' { 5'- -
. A& $ F ) ^5%- 2 /- !
"8!
1&%
A& / , -13") +!
. r&:%
P [ ( +4
\ D
"M) . O/
= .- b&d 1."
\ D
"M) A "g) Z ,- :D
2- ) A -
"&&}
A& V N !- -
" : (% 6
%
=-+ V Z $
= M +%-"3
! / - -+&)
"Q5 +% ) . (.
)
% ' )"<
(
Z '
) (
> $#
.
/ 2 / 80
$ 90 . c
> Q%
2 5T
(3+%6 ( ZO ".
A ( % O5H%- + % /
= .- ) ! ZO &M )
=l [
\ D
"M) (%-+%6 ( +%+!
. N6$" - (
O&%- A^, O& R)
$
%6$
/ 1&%
( + %-
= ^, -
r %
"+ .
Cohn, 2003)
.(
+&X 2 9[C- . K:4 ' 6-
=-6 : 2+&[:
)
& Tg + +!
)
$ -+[)
" 6$
. A "g) Z+!
1&%
( + 3
":
"3- (T 6-
` 5%
A -
= J )
F DK7- (
[, (, &, Z+! ) A "g) r:4 6-
"/
M.
"R +/ !
=#
+/- ' )
;
"3- ) p
! . A - ) A "g) ( F :p Z -
=#
4$
m ( O !
c
% %
? ' - d- - O&/
". 2$
* -
".
" . 8 2 M.
% & $ ' O&5H/
.
(5D c (%-+%6 (, &,
" -+%
Cohn, 2003)
.(
$ %&70 9 S
6- w,-$- / 90 Z2 K&
0K +!
O&H%
F DK7- (, &,
(* 5P- ,
& 6
$ ) F-6- O/
) f&S
$") :
= S
= - )
‡&[:
2 / ( 4
$ 2 -6#
= &) 2-")
;= &[&!
2")-") (* 5P-
2 54-
$ d- -
")-") 7"
2 / (9}!
$
2 54-
$
X - 7"
2-")
= &[&!
8P }5!-
" -$
(5C$
$ (!6 #
$
= S
= - )
2"&R5, 2 /
%-", '
$ X T!
. A - F DK7- )
([%-
7 '
6-
% P 8&) /$
P-
+!
Shanahan,2008, p.14)
-(
$+D ( . f&S
!- .
/ ,
YD N6 P- "&'- 2
HM% $ +! N - (R /" $ (, &, ( , r g ('") [&! =-":/
$ 8%# A&) ( /
9* $ A "Tj5
"3 F 7 (9 2 / R5j3 =- * g ( , 2 .
-+
, 1993 c9
]-+:*
)
=#
= 6 +8[&C$
$ C$ b&d (
)
=-":/
[&!
N+*$
-
$+g 2 /
(, &,
= &[&!
- - ")
$ 8%#
1&%
) 0K 2-") H.
= & D (P ' N6 :
) O e
= S + / .
O8 A "
F DK7- O e
2 [, + V
\ j - 5 - : A&5H^%
$ O8 A "
=#
2 -13")
, 2 R5j3 (9
) , 9&
c9 ]-+:*
) . A - / R5j3 -" -
6- /-L
$ / N$"3 2
•95^
) + *
•95^
(, &, O/ "3 +%+ # rd H
a HD (, &,
$ Z(:/L
06 #
$ A& † / 2$ +
( K,- :g7 . + .
> 8V 2003
C$
2 [,
&% &) 2- 7
".
.
=#
X&5%
F & g O5H&,
(!6 # M.
(, ") -"4
"3 . m:J A - 0 -13
` S +7 6-
? 5.
2 / (!6 # a -+
2 [, 2$ D 06 #
C ( P 8 ,-
) 1." C- 2 [HC-
\ gC Z= H%l- Z2003
~1XC- (% kC-
.(
5H^%
A&
F ) ^5%- ( *
= 5H)"*
2 [, (J 40 , 5!L3
> , a 2005 -13") +!
$ A - (% 6 2-")
8•
= &[&!
$ 5, 2+ ) 2 /
= %#
) .
=-1&
. M 2-
= 3+ / mJ
[&!
6-
& )
y % M.
"5M&) ) . 6- A&)
"
G : 320 -1/
+P-$
w -"!
2-
= - mJ
O8
[&!
ZA&M%
-+[
220 -1/
"j%
( [ 34 +7 :p
> %
$ 75 +7 6- A - -+[
2- 2"&3
."!
+% ".
. (C D . h
$ mJ D
=#
.
$+D ,
$ O&%
= &9&
&[ P
- 8 ˆC )
") 148 -1/
"j%
( [ A&) 16 19 +7 F ) ^5%- ."!
".
+%
. X&5%
mJ [&!
A&M%
> 9[
" ) 6- 12 (,".
•& 4
$ Z~ HDl- 11
(,".
& %
= &[&!
+!
$
8 c (,".
=#
O/
) r&C 9,
&DK7 A&HD
A D"C-+:*
b& ^C-
& % ( , /
"+!
ICG, 2005, p.7 )
.(
q4-$
= 6
=#
-"
N+&, ) - ' (, &, f % = &[&! .
- 6 $+D = 5H)"*
+ . j .
2 -13") F ) ^5%-
2 - "8!
/
= 5H)"*
2 [,
$ :4- ( *
= &[&!
)
=#
$ H.
(,".
2 / r) 4 P )
" N| $
&4"MC-
"
Z 2+ 4K*
= &[&!
A - M.
- ) (,-"T
$ F DK7-
= % ( + . . . M
= &[&!
,$"S F DK7- 1&%
(X 5%
- ) :%
-
! : 2-") 2+&[:
/ 2 [&!
. r ) M36 ) )
M.
Z+% )
% L3 7 +!
;
&*
$ + #
"4 ) 2000 [&!
O&
= 5H)"*
2"R%6 ) N+!
$ F :C f: P
F DK7- [&!
2-") / f^) 2 2‰
w) TD , -
! Z+
$ $ ('") F "M%
([&!
$
5.
= 3+ H % ([&!
- 4 -"
"3
$
"
! + 5.
a -+
2"R%6 ) -"4
"&3 N !- 2 / A&/
1& # ) q&M 6-
=#
N $ 6
!
ICG, 2005, p.7 )
.(
K : ) J (^
r [ C$
)
= &[&!
,
"
) . P$
= % 4 (, ,-
s "7
$ A!$
A - M.
. A&)
=-+%$"8!
F-$ H rd 4 +!
$ A& † / P$
= C S
G 5:H%
,
$ w)-$
? '
= &
= &[&!
$
=-+% ' O. D (M^) 6- r&C A& V (9 [ )
)
#
Z0-"E 2003
.(
Zq4-$
WK'")
= 5H)"*
2 [,
$ ZA "g)
= . D . 5, &, ( { ' - 6-
, 1962 N )
= &[&!
A - M.
f&S 5 "3
% ) + . ) 8%#
N6 P- ( - -$
= C S
+% ! .
‰ ^ - A& V (5, &, P
+!
A - M.
(5D f
2 / (, &, Z ^, O.
A "
N+ / S (, &, - 5!- +! ) . b9X
= 3+ % )
Š- ( . 2- - 50
$ ,- (,".
:H%
)
"R bC X ) M 2 / M.
?"*
`&9' a
6- F- &5'- O&
2"&3
$
2 -LR% % 4 2"5M&)
- '")
; ,- )
% 3 2- . ( +%- O&
2 / (5C$
- ( &)6 )
$
‡ % -"4 +/
. A - b9X
%-e 2006 ) +&
&!
I :7 )
=- *
"& - 3 ( U 1)
!- ")
CRS Report, 2006, pp.22-2)
.(
) y ,
>-+7 ,
2003 O% ' [ _ : .
c 2 % ) [&!
(5 . Z ,- 2-") HS F -6$
%") 21
&) .
? ^5%- +!
.
= &H9X
. G * IK7- 9J + 5H/
$
/ ,
2
"&'-
>+4 O8
"R N-
F DK7-
+ 5!- ")
$
=#
u 4- C$
) f/ . N6 D 2 / 2- 2"&3 b9X
$
> E - N6 D / 6- 25 )
` S
6 D N ) . 3+ %
= b9X
") A -
$ ) +% ) . 0"5H3 A - N6 D /
& "•
H
$ + "'
2-
$ *-
"Q%
- O/-"
( + .
CRS Report, 2006, pp. 22-23)
.(
‰ ^ - A - , &, X 5%
(
? 9 2-")
= &[&!
. (S
!-
$ -+[
= 3+ % 8%#
- b9X f -1 - -
.
= &[&!
. :H%
)
"R
= &[&!
6- 2 -6#
F * 5P-
$
&C [ 2 / (:/L
$ 1&%
N 3 - 2 / { ' 8P (, ") 2$ *
") a ,- ([&!
2"j[P +% - '")
Shanahan, )
2008, p.6
$(
N - / ,
` S (,".
b9X -
&5'- +% - . N$"3
>K,- 2-"3 h [
= C S YD -
$ 6-
= 6 x P
`&9' a 1999 ."D 2 / +<
O e
&H)
"5 .
N+!
,-
CRS Report, 2006, p.22)
F ) ^5%- (.
, 2008 -+[
2 Y*- [&!
= C S
. ) f!
A 6- 50 Y*
$ -+[
2 Y*-
&) . )
$ A 6- 15 Y*
&) . +&, .
F ) ^5%- b9X
. ,
2009 -+[
2 Y*- [&!
b9X ) 9 A +&, . f -1 -
r) 4 P -
= M%
- . A& V (M -1 - (C D
F 7
"3 . -+[
= 3+ % / N$"3
2
&4 ( , b9X
) f/ . r) 4 P N-" /
; ) Kk -+[
(j9, 2 / b9X . 6-
` S N+ % N $
Z 5!L3 )
$ N+ %
$ N$"3 ( ,
=- 'l- A& 9H C- 6-
, N+ % )
c N+ % f/ .
) , Z - XC- 2009
.(
6-
= &
= 3+ %
^5 [ P ([&!
.
A $
=6 + 5H/
. (T 6- 8%#
) O% ' [ _ : C- .
"5M&S A&5H^%
=6
" 6$
&) .
C$
1&%
) ( A " l ) -+[
~- # - N6 D
&) ^5%- J )"
6-
=#
'
".
. c N+ %
^5 1&%
(% D$
[&!
,- . YD -+[
"5M&)
= &[&!
" b9X
" l- .
A "'#
F ) ^5%- N+ +S
2- + +P
$ ' P ,- . l 5D- X&5%
u 4- TD )
f/ .
" -$
( ) ^5%- )
.
, M.
Z= *
" 4
$ F- - N+g5 Z()"*
9€H F DK7- )
*", . O
"
(S 2"&3
+!
. O8 A "
r&C
=#
,- . l$- Z N (* 5P-
7 ^
$ M.
F- -
$
" 4 6-
2+!
l )
$
&% p Z
&[ P A - / M.
7 ^
= * 6- c (5,
"5M&) 6-
&D % (:/L
- '") ,-
. ) P$
A -
/ ,
2
"&'- - F-"&&}
$ F DK7-
"Q%
) - A
/ M.
1&%
O.
$ f&) N+&M.
+!
. F - N+g5 ()"*
6- 9 P ( / M.
,- . C 4
I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
F-".-L [%- F X -6#
- ) Fl - N+g5 6 E#
".
$ )
") Z
=#
,- . r:4 6- , 2013 ) X&5%
+,") .
! ' / O/
= 6 . 1 6
"2 /
I"J '
% & $
"U 1)
6 E#
Z+!
O/
=-", 2 / M.
?"*
$ O/
('") 6-
=-", 2 / M.
g - S$ - )
=#
) jC ^ + 5, '") . A "5M&) a"
2 / M.
?"*
6- A - I"J (S 2 /+ # (C 5D-
=#
2-") 2 )
/ C$
2 ' ) . 2 / M.
( S$ -
(C D . ' 6- / F+
f&S
"
)
" d- - +%$
)
"= 9,
/ 5! 3 Z+% ) I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
- q4-$"&E
% &)
$
%-6-$"S+ 9) () 6 -
+% ".
. ('") 6-
=-":/
S$ - + % /
_-e _-"&!
Jacques Chirac)
b&d (
8 P Z H%-"
-+M/
+% -
" . c "g 2-")
X - F-"&&}
( +%- P ( -"3 & )
$ 5 -$"
= )
>- c98 x P
=+
/
" !
) Ottaway, 2004
.( A " + +!
F- 5%- 6- W"J r&9g
"3 2 2"
)
> %
% (% P"
F 7
"3 . 2$
b&d c H, ( & g r 5H
,-
$ (T 6-
= 3+ H % (97-
0 -13 [,
()"*
= 6 , r9 ) . I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
2 &H) 6- rd H ' - )
5,- )
=#
= &)
".
. (% P"
+&
(
".
. + 6 &%
N6 : (* 5P- (%l J
,- .
) 1/
( Z+ # )
"T
$ m& g 6 E#
$ ) , &, )
= S ( +, . + 6 &%
"&&}
a ,-
/ TD
2 -"3 -+54- O -
- A& V 2" - + ) 6-
=$
A - / M.
7 F
" LS
%
6- m "J C$
(% . T " #
) Z(% P"
2004
(% P" (.
6- T " # ) r&C
†%#
. 2$
~ , N j5,-
6- 0 -13
= 6 , r9 ) ( "J
"&E (4K'- +& % ) F+!
5%-
".
. ) 5*- 2$
T " #
>
/ f^) ( 6- 0 -13 -
.
=#
) , &, 2 / T " #
$ r&d-",- N !-
N+!
Z )
$ ) D-"7 ) , 9&
0 -13 [,
(% H%-
= 8P
?"*
6- 8%#
5%- ) r * N+ # Z )
N+ %
! R%- . 2$
8•-
!-
" :
%") 2 . . A - I"J ) 0 -13
= 6 , r9 5,-
".
+ % /
> # (5H ,- . )
"&
‹-"V
\")
&T N -
% 2-") N j5,- 6- ( !$
T9) 2-")
T%#
+5j&%
"! ) Z(% P"
2004 (.
% (% P"
F- 5%- 0+ +!
=- * ( + . . 2 / M
T " # AT ,- , 2- 6- F DK7- -
X - . + .
(9% 5,- c&,$".
Stanley Crossick) N ) (
F- 5%- N -$
) I"J + 5[
,- : A -
T5)- A&5H^%
r * T " # u %
' )
$ 6- A -
"Q%
+ ) 6-
=#
: 5,- ( +!
. - A -
I"J 2- - 8V : . 2+P ) : Z $- AgC
$
= )6
%-" #
=#
) N| $ (% 6 . .
2| -"5,-
& - (9 T " # ,
2002 QDK
-"4 ( Z "&3
% /- 1& # N )
$
: "
0" LS -"4
"R%
. Z>$
A - A5 8 c w' ) T5)-
%-"5 +
S$ - N !- -
$ ) 0K 2 / N "5H3 g - S$ - . (J
/ ,
$ 6- m "J
"
+%$
= 9, )
"
> X%- Z+!
N !- 2- -+%
. Z> , A - I"J 6- N $ M 2 / (, ,- (9:4 () N"8) ,-
$
> 8V . O8 A "
9€H O/
,- A - I"J rD 9€H
?-"*-
$ r&d-",- HT!
N '
(Crossick, 2004) ,- .
) J (9.
? 6 ) I"J -+ +!
1& # 5%- )
$
=- -+ 5, &,
( T " # )
, 9&
%6$
=- R%
$
=-"R ) r&C T%#
(D"J - 2-")
=$+) F M )
(% H.
. 6- A - I"J
"p 5 ' + /- Z+!
6-
"Q f ' (D-"J
".
+%
5%- -"4 +% - .
A - F- 5%- f&) 6- / ) N+ % A5! R%- 9€H
A& H9
$ r&d-",- 5%- N+!
)
International Crisis Group, 7 June 2004, p.6 )
.(
A - F- 5%- ) g%
" + +!
6- 2 ,
=-":/
?"*
1&%
I"
+!
.
= %#
. K a HD-
( +% ".
. 6- Fl - N+g5 , $
N '
+%- . 8%#
) )"D 2 /
"R 1&%
2$
+% $#
?"E - 6- rT!
2"&3
=-+g5 + +P 2-")
=-" - + % ,"5) .
= - N ! S ]-+:* c9 -+M/
rT!
2"&3 ([&! K/
(Washington Post, December.7, 2004)
( HD F- 8•- Z _ :
+% - $ =-" - ) ' 2 / M. 6- f&) = &[&! T - ") ( : )
Z &)"[C- 8 / 4 / 2006
F- 5%- $(
2 [, "T , &, 6- /
2 / +/ = † / - \-"* 8%# O*6 ) . T " # 2-
) 2-
8P . Z ". O + =-" - N+%13 ( gC ) $ ) M 2"&3
% , 2 , 6- "
$ / = 3+ H %
?"*
Y > N :T 2
uKJ-
% , (
". "S - ?"* = 8P .
, -+}) y , 8%#
2003 -
} = ' .l / ,+) -+}) y , $#
) 1258
>
(.
[&! OC * 2 T / ) . + 5H%-
" LS F 7 (, J "& % P- ' (%-" - .
O/
\-"* [&! =-":/ =+%- ' 2 j7 ) A& V
- 8%#
•&7 2 j7 2 J-"t - 2 &D- 2-") =-" - = " g r - *
".
+%
) Z+ 6-"
1387
.(
= ^, ]-+:*
(% -
? ) K/
([&!
+ !
=-+ V + ! ' C$
0 ) N :%
- 2$
2-")
")
= )6
=+%- A& V (% ^, 6- 2 ,
f%- /
= 5H)"*
Z2 [, .
$ A "g)
"TM
$
" +
"4 -
"3
(Walker, 2005)
. A -
= ^, 6- 2 , 2 /$"&%
h [ ([&!
G-+ +!
5%- -"4
"3 . ) 5*-
" 8%#
9€H K/
([&!
-
= !
> "
2 l , 2-") j'
= ".
2-+7
> "
) +% 8%
) Z([&)"C- (1385
. ) 5*-
" 8%#
q&M
X - P ( "
"&p•
:k - -"V . ) :%
X - 2 / 8%
(* 5P- a ,-")
. M ([ P ,- . A& V OQ%
> "
l ,
%- G [ 4 2-") A - / > Q%
$ (% H.
. (C 5 A -
TD / + 5H/
" ' 2 U 1) ,- -LC 6- -+5)- r)
=#
$ +% ".
) Z2" XC- 1385
.(
Z26 , Y A - X&5%
8:P X - ) M 2-") " $ = - Z= 5H)"* g ) ()"* 2-
0"5H3 x /# = ". + . $ \-"* = &[&! f % = ". $+g 8P T " #
> "
2 l ,
+! % & $ '
) Z+ 6-"
1387
.(
. A - F -+4-
& /- 1d D 1&% 5T% A - ,-
T " # .
j% &4 "5 . "T 8 =$"&) 2 &% ) a `&9' 6- j% >- # $ F :p ) = "P $
. 5!- - E+E A - A& † / T9) H&% $ N :%
"
M.
, &, •C ^ (/$"3 $ /
2
+%"&R% , ) - u <$- "5 . $ 5 &% , q) A - ") T " #
Pollack, )
2003. P.4
.(
Z= 6 = / 3
-1 0 H, (M/$|S N"R .
T " # +&.
".
" . /$"&%
(
+ +4 r'-
2 / M.
?"*
N6 D
`&9' a
YD +% - . F 7 +% &S )
2 / M.
+ +4
"R
= V
=-" - ( + %- 6 ," '
$ P () ( :p + ! )
CRS, p.20) .(
) B$- 2"&3 ( - 5%- . 6- I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
) r * Z+ # F
T " # (
$ S$ - (
=-":/
2 / M.
()"*
- m M +% ".
F-"Q%
' -
? ) F DK7-
2 54-
$
(, &, f&S
6- HM%
=-", N$"3 M/
Ad$e 2004 )
=- * '6 )
$ F-"Q%
2 / M.
()"*
d- -
! . ) 97 (.+%- A + V b%-"j . -13")
! + .
%-e 2004 c
b%-"j . 2-
N )
> "
Z2 l ,
\ D
"M)
$ f % N 3 - 2 / P ( A&) (99 C-
A -13") +!
) b%-"j . [ 7
( Z 12 N a 2004 b%-"j .
"
F DK7-
= 8P
?"*
"
) 12 N a 2004 ( Z
"8!
+ T,-
"
-13")
! + .
=-" ^,
&D 55 - b%-"j . Z
D ( H _ : b&d 8 P
"
) . 2$
A - (%-" ^, 0K
". &H) l$-
Z ) p . +
0 M.
6- / F+
f&S F DK7- -
u$"!
".
N
$
&% p Z A - b%-"j .
$ b%-"j . 2 /
"R
+ )
") (9'-
= ) F DK7- +&.
.
(Mubarak, 2004)+ .
N 2004 g -
?"*
Arab League)
) (
Q
%") F DK7- (, &,
) r&TM HM%
\ N [C-
b%
F :
".
T5)- r * - ) ,
"&3
$ q%
6-
=#
! . I"J F DK7-
% & $ ' )
=- *
%") N$"3 8
= %
! + . - X&5%
A - HM%
[ 4 2- () ) .
8 ) (9.
( 3 (g , )
?
> "
2 l ,
$
\ D
"M) '- "S
$
%") 2- o^M
2-")
":M&S F DK7-
2 54-
$ (, &, d- -
-+%
.
= 5H)"*
2 [, (5D 6- ."!
A - HM%
2 - '
".
.
8%
I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
HM%
=-", N$"3 8 (, + 9 #
Sea Iland) (
2 $+D r +[
ZN+!
$ 10 Ad$e 2004 )
> %
"
I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
$ !
" #
"
)
+&, .
= "X A - I"J
% ) 2-+7$",
&C$- T9) 6-
=#
bS ) ( - # 6- m "J
2 / .$6 , y )"
) '
$ 6-
" 9 P
H,
"N+ #
$ 1&%
\$+ 7 J )"
u$"!
)
&C [
".
+%
. 8%#
6- m "J 2 -13") .
/ N$"3 2
# (!6
$ 2 T / )
/ N$"3 2 (5C$ "&E GK .
[ N )
$ HM%
2 / y )"
) I"J
% & $ ' )
J
%l , 2 / M.
$ )
. M O8
A "
/ C$
2
= 8P
$ 6- 9 P 2 Y*- N$"3 M/
$ 2 / M.
j%
1&'
-13") (
! . ) P$
A - Z + )
= *‰-
".
. ) J a Hg 6-
*",
$ F+!
=#
5, . +!
.
( .) / I"J 2 F DK7-
`&9' a
=$+) + "
2- - -"&p ( r) 4 5*- N ) +%- .
O8 A "
$ 2+P A "
A - / I"J Z I"J
% & $ ' U 1)
6-
=#
8P . ( /+& - -
2 &H) 6-
= < [
^&R%-") Z
1d D
& /- ,-
$ (9*
OE T%#
2 &H) 6- HT!
=#
A^, ( Z+ 3 ( %
=- ) (% ,#
6- () X&5%
= )
=#
:g7 )
= &
$#
. q4-$
)
I"J F DK7-
>+4 2 /
&H) 5!- ")
+!
. M36 )
" LS % ,- . c
$#")
Z(9.
A - / I"J + 5H%-
- 6-
=#
2 Y K . 5H) (, &, B ' Z 5' , zD :
y )"
) TD Z= % 4
& j!
C$
Z "T9 *
\ D
"M)
$ OH 5% C S -
O8
+%6 , .
&
A - N- 5H) ) u % TD
$ [ P
"/
M.
) F+!
$
•[<
N-" / )
$ ('") 6- A - / M.
, ,- rd H 5j3 N+!
N S N (! % 6- 2 / l
j%
(5 6-
=-+ V (5& /-
= 6 (% . - '") H&%
- ( / M.
. 2- -
&94- 2 /
? .", N+!
Z+ 5H/
+ % / ZA "g)
= 5H)"*
2 [,
$ O8
"
6- A -
$ Z\-"*
-"&p (
m& * P")
!-L3 . 5T%
O8 r) 4
".‰
A - N )
=#
,- . / I"J 2 F DK7- )
"/
( +/
) -"P- 5!-L3 Z+% ! ( + %- 2 Y (, &,
$ 5' , 9 5 F +4 -
"&&}
+ /
$ ('") 6- / M.
+ % / A "g)
$
= 5H)"*
% 8
= &[&!
- 6-
&[<$
•,- ) 5!L3 B ' 5' , T9) ) J (:H%
8%#
- 5' , F +4 c "!
$ M.
\-"*
K . F +4 - 6-
&94- , ) 8%#
r 5 +%6 , .
) 2 6
Dror Ze’evi
2"&:[ (
6- F DK7-
$ N+ #
=#
8•- N+& *
!-
": E
‹-"V (,-"T
= .-
=$"&) ) B ' 6-
"5 . (
" ,-
Ze’evi,2007,p.4)
) (
I"J
(,-".
&[
2 + +P 2-") F$ Y4
$ () 6 - X -
;+!
2 &[
. 2 85%-
=#
2-")
&H) 2
> 9[ % ) . q4-$
I"J F DK7-
$ +&
$ -"T
"/
N6$
=#
6-
= )6
= & D ()"E
/ C$
2 Z
"36 E#
2+%$
) . f% S ,
/ C$
2
$
T " # :%
. bS 6-
!L3 + V , 6- I"J F DK7-
$ (S
•9^
/ TD
6-
N+*$
2 / N - N+!
) 2-"
> "
2 l ,
$
> X%- F DK7- Z([4-$
)
"Q%
( + #
> "
A -
/ M.
N- ' - 5 +%-
$ 2 *- 2 -6#
([4-$
(/-
" 13 % f&S
2 S
?"E ,-
$
…jD
=- m) ,
= T -
" LS % H&%
.
5 8%
)
"Q%
( + #
= < [ ([&!
. 2-") c 1%
) O&%
="4
? .",
$
% M' O. D
- 2$6 #
=+&, ) r4-+D 2 Y -6#
r g
".
+%
6- 2 Y X - N+!
) , 9&
I"J
F DK7- N j5,-
". :&H) +%
. 8%#
(9*
OE
>+*
5*- ) T " #
$ (/ R%
.
>- )
A•~ , ) W-+/- A "
/ TD
2 9 Z+ 5!-
0K +% ".
"k.-+D
N j5,- - 6- 2 Y P +%":) . u X :D
( / . N+% R%
)
= < [ ([&!
> X%- Z -
"4 )
\ j - 8%#
") A - N+& * +% ) .
=$+) c . (P ' , ,- Ž&/
(DK7-
= T -
" LS :%
$ )"X f&) 6- O&%
="4 N6 : 2 &H)
6- A - / M.
") A -
N+& * g7 ( -L3 . KP 6$"&
.
= &) A& V X&5%
2- 2 $+D y 5g
Z ) 8•-
!-
" : F DK7- (! %
6- N - -
> Q%
A&) r9 C- ) .
"3- r.
4 +& . QDK
+&/- '
".
. r7- YD (P ' ,- . A& V 2" - -
"5 . ( + . - F+!
$
•[<
=#
5H) ) rd H (9'-
"/
M.
$
&9) 4 / 2 ( "
,- .
"3-
> "
A - / M.
+ /- ^)
$ F :C
"5M&) 5!- + ! ) 0K (
! 8%#
(<- N R%
5!- +% ! . q4-$
2 /$"&%
(P ' + ) fT M.
( / - . 2-") q '
"Y ( Z+ &) rD .
"+
) Z6$"&
1385
.(
$ M
& - (9
\-"*
1&%
. M % ( N| $ 2-") 9€H y ,
>-+7
= &[&! F &D + +X
rd 4 Z ) / I"J 2 F DK7- -
6- O8 A "
r - *
"&&}
u <$-
= &[&!
/ ,
2
"&'-
-+ 94
".
) Z([&)"C- 1385
.(
%-+ ! / (D"J Z (, &, F DK7- I"J . ,- 5*- A - ") N+% R% 5 8%
4$ 6- [% W+/ ) . ) f&S r) 4 $ "&3-" ( 8)K %- u
>+* r&C ) $ +! (D-"J ( &)
"p- O. $ + . &H) 2+%$ N+g5 Fl - ") 8%# M $ ?"* =-":/ 2 , 6- , _ . 5j!# u <$- . (C D
2 54-
$ (* 5P- 2 8) .", ZN+ -1 " Z ...
(%- $ r g
(%l J (R . ' $ \ 5'- 6- "
A5j3 A^, $ 6 ) &% ( Y X - . ) -+&S $ 5!-+% -
) N6 : Z & j! Z"M) \ D Z(,-"T 6-
$ H ...
6 ) ( -"! A& V
".
O'6 = / (
+! T!# ( * P1%- $ OM' 6-")- 0 p# 2 $6 ) . ) 8.
.
