:
!
"
- . /.
0 12
! 345 6
7 "
- . /.
0 12
! 345 6
) :
15 / 2 / –89 :
1 / 3 / 89 (
8 :
"* : - 5 ; < . " = . > ? @ > * A < B ( CD ( E
? 3 A <
7 1 . F G H73I5 A
( E -7 J "# A <
3E + @ <
K = " 3L
3 > A <
* A < B AM3 - 5 + :C . > ? @ >
A 3.
E N A < B A "E I 5 5
7 3L 07 C5 @ .
N J< P Q > ? J< > R S 31" - 1S5 A 3. 73 N
0#L T 31" $ E
@ U > A <
! 3 . J< ! J< " K I
< B A <$3 A
I ! . A - 8 1 < > K C " >
! 31"2 B V .
W* 4* IE < . T 5 ( + 4 5 E N @ > ?
( E P E L + A 3. UX5 .3G A <
8 IE . 4* -7 ( @2 $ -" 3
7 < > > A <$3 A 8 ! .
A B ! LM :
AM3 :. - 5 Y 5 7 > AM3 * $ . Y CV
I 5
E N A "E
- . ! $ * 2 5
AM3 12
"* ! 3).
* :
! : 61112381 Email: [email protected]
! "#$ % &
' ( ' ) * + ,-. &
.
0 1 2 3 1980
& 6 7 8' 9 : ; * - <7 9 % & =#> ? )
@7 ? A > B ; CD
"
: ; *> 'E <7 & FD G>
"
H I>
. '+
% )
J A KL M J & : ; @NJ @(J O1 > A#L
* J & '+ ) % ) )
* D %
+ = ? PQ1 J : ;
: ; * R % )
& 6 7 8' 9 2 S % ) .
TU J
@1 % ) > : % & ' V> W $ ! * - <7 ! X Y @ '. @1 '1 @1
@- % ) & F E X 1 W $ ! Z; AJ > ) K' U E 0 E ' J 9 K'9
? A
<N J F' ) ) M# L > A#L ! ['+ 0 1 )
0 1 2 3 B ; J & D 0 E 1980
@ ' E *7 I > Z L @,>
! Z Z \ 9 0 ]N : ; * 1 <U A#L
@1 A :E % % )
J X Y 7 $
& %J ') D ,> O1 > Z ^7 0 ^ K' .
'& P 3;
%3 * (
(International Energy Agency (IEA)
0 1 ] = K?
2012 9 L 0 1 >
2017
* I7 '( > ? K& ! @- '( > : ;
* '+ % I1 Z & L * I Z GD @- ) 9
@7 ?
IEA,2012:1)
.(
CD &
['+
* '&
& \ c 1 W $ ! *I']$ ! ? J @- '( > < 1 [ K7 J = K? % )
=J
%3 J & : ; * 9 % )! ' % & * K D M J & : ; D % ) ) 9 Z d $ & Z ! @ e? & & ) 9 0 1 > @7
2030 : ;
) 9 g ]> @- . % ) ! *: &
IEA,2012:1)
.(
CD &
0 1 > = K?
2015
! ? * I7 '( > ? K& '( > ! K' : ; *I']$ ! ? '( >
RE# g& N * K' & '1J Z '1 7 * I ' *I']$
'& % 0 1 J
2017
& ) 9 ' *I']$ ! ? '( > ? K& : ;
IEA,2012:1)
! ? Z ! 2U L .(
?J ' * . @9 1 & *I']$ ! ? Z g ]> J : ; % ) ! & & g9 '( > *I']$
% )
> : ; h & '( > 2 K) [) iL & h &
50
%
! !
) 9 +J
?
Motavalli, 2012) .(
=J & 0 k, 1 g& N * - <& " F E 7 = K? F) : ; D % )
: ; @(J * c1 +
U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)
2 S O 7
?
(Oil shale deposits in the Green River Formation): ; Z ' > 1
(Trillion:
Cardinal number equal to 10^12)
J; & : &
GAO-12-740T)
Z; ! * ' ? * E (
=J &
*$ D % )
15
>
20
! 0 k, 1 g& N @- & \ c 1 g& N ; 0 1
% & & Z GD % ) A > * - ]l 9m g & ZKc
& ) 9 .
% &
! \ c 1 @- g " F' @N @ '7 * L 9m F E ! G& n
& : & Z ' > o J E !J > @- d '(J -E Z ! ! Z GD * - <& A >
@1 .
0 1 : ; ? Z L ' B ) = K?
2011 p k &
8 / 18 ' Z '
'( > & J Z GD @- r K& p k '(J !J @- : &
7 / 5
@- : & Z ' '
@1 & Z GD @- r K& '( > ' 1 !J
EIA,2012)
.(
s( 9 0 1
: ; @- J
)
&
4 / 11 J J !J : & Z ' ' 9
/ 2 . : & Z ' ' (
4 / 8
Z ' ' 0 1 : ; @1 Z; * I @1 & !J : &
2011 J
M ] >
45
% 0 1 ! & \ 9 ! 9 * - k, J A 9 @- ! 2005
I& &
F) J [) $ & @- J & 9 % )! ' F) 52
%
! ['& * I
J % )! ' ! * ' J %K *( % : ; ! * - k, J @- & 9 *>
C'u % K' J *& D )
' J 9 J (
' >
EIA,2012)
! E % ) J (
6 7 8' 9 )
*& L , J % I1 Z & L @ h L ,& g (
0 1
2011 O 7 ' >
22
%
! ' !
& A 9 @- & : ; *> J % )
EIA,2012)
.(
?
0 1 = K? D % ) ; &
2012 W'N : ; %3 * 1 "#$ P 3;
F >
' > &
29
%
! 22
%
& & @- . ? K& : ; *> J @-
' > & Z & L 14
%
& #uJK J 11
%
& ' 10
%
& o K: J 8
%
! 22
% D
% )
v k 9 9 & % I&
EIA,2012)
.(
= K?
)
? ]( J
* ! 1 % ) Z; & * ] %
( [1 + w $ &
* )
g' ,> % 1 ! @1
*> . ? Z ? 7 ! - 1 & M ' E : ;
% J;
)
%
& %! ' J '1 ! ? J @- '( > * - 9 & M# L \ c 1 J % -E D 'd D ! % k N % ]N *( E & ' J 9 * - <&
) J
Z 1J ) (
; & *N & 6 7 8' 9 ! %3 J & & J & Z B )
: ; @ K > J '( > @' ! @ '. % & 9 * R Z > ! - 1 & F k Z B )
% '? J [ > '& d ) = ? J & ) 9 6 7 8' 9 2 S %3 x ) 9 9 <7 % 1 S
[1 + ' d @1 @'IN J V7 & * ] % ! E > % )
%! 1 1 % ) J % )
@'IN J
& @- ! & * ' % ) :
'& P 3; = K? W]$
* GD % U > %3 * (
0 1 A 9 @- % &
2011
& z( &
4 / 87 0 1 @1 & !J : & Z ' ' 2035
&
7 / 99
! U > [ K7 '& '1 ) 9 !J : & Z ' '
% ) 2'E
'1; N r K&
) Z 1J ) J 'd (
* . 9 J & ' J 9 % ) 9 K' J
! ['&
90
% ) 9 * '1; % ) ' J 9 % ) O1 > '( > ! ? J @- !
&
IEA,2012:4)
.(
! K' 'd *I']$ ! ? p k 130
0 1 CI: ' ' 2011
&
545 0 1 CI: ' ' 2035
@7 ) 9 [ K7
IEA,2012:5)
.(
O1 = K?
0 1 % 9 @- @ 'N
2035 +J 2 ,> O1 >
215 : & ) % &
)
& 0 I 125 0 1 9 N &
2011 ( ['+
* * '&
IEA,2012:5) .(
> p .J &
0 1 *$ DJ %
K) & D > & ' J 9 ; % )
% )
Z ! % Z B ) \ c 1 F ) 9 *N & * GD % ) ! & & @- 2U L % & <& >
*& ? ) J g E A > @ 'N [ K7 iL & S * J *> ]l
% )
) 9 Z GD 1 1 %3
? .
=J ! - 1 ! F e &
J % -E D % )
9m g{ @1 K' S % ) 0 k, 1 g& N * - 9m M \ c 1
) 9 [ K7 : L
.
* R & M 7 V
- 1 % ) ; 1
g' ,>
= K? \ % )
0 1 ] 2012 '& P 3;
Z K' v k9 %3 * (
0 1 L#$ 6 1 & M I> F) ' J 9 2 S ! : @- J 2011
J 2012
0 1 ] Z + d & F'R >
2012
! : ; A 9 @- J Z K'
& Z & L 450
* : & Z ' ' '1
0 1 @ c ! % & * E FN 2012
'&
) J (
0 1 ! o ) *$ Z & L ! : ; @- J g J !
% ) 2009
2010 J 2011
*
@- '( > Z K' [ K7 DJ & Z; ! @ :E @ ' E J &
0 1 Z & L : ; n 9 g9 ! ? J 2012
> F @1 '
15 2 S J .
' > " 6 7 8' 9 25
@1 & : *> J @- ! .
Makan, )
.(2013
0 1 *$ F' D > K' @'IN J & ?
'> @- + e? % )
1 & 6 K >
% e?
d % I1 Z & L @- * @ F' % ) 7 I1 > Z
n 9 1 1 @- + ? K& @'7 | R ! + U E 0 E
: ;
*
@(J ! 1 Z; ) c *N & % > &
X 1 % )
% ) & F E ?
& 9 % k N @' ) }-E W $ ! & ' V> & ' J 9 X L K'9 @- %
0 1 *$ . 9 A & :> % D & X Y
= ? % & =#> & J#L '9 % )
X Y % > ! > % 0 I> 2S1 J Z L & : & A 9 @- . Z K' N &
' & FG1 s'kc> & J#L J 9 + [ % - & K' * '1; % k N % ) ! *? K&
~Z & 1 ]l J *& Y ,' > " * ' V> 9 & 9 * - % ) ;
@' E ~ 1
@ & 9 % ] 1 % ) g] > W $ ! 9 *& Y Z ' E % & S % )
&
@1 '1 ! * *(
N D D % )
& K? Z GD 1 1 F) )
1
~F' % e?
RE# g& N [c&
9 ! ? J @- =J 7 ! g. E % ) ; ! %
? K' +J J : ; %3 [c&
.
%3 p k % ) R S !
"
%3 @'
"
<& Z & 6 1 * I &
@ 'N & %3 ' > ]l & J L g& N
* 0 ]N g& N * S $ & % )
&
. L g& N
g, ! %3 ' > % D 2-NJ ? ) !J & o Z & ' + * I & <& Z &
J & <&
"
0 ]N g& N * S $ &
"
@ 'N Z &
[ K7 o Z & ' + * I & F) )
@ 'N J * G?
* <& g, ! % 9 g& N %3
&
.
> & ? A G- & D
"
%3 @'
"
n F' D > *& Y Z )J•+ ! @- @ 'N 1 € > &
"
Z ,&
"
0 1 ] • D g' 1 * E % ) F ,> 2 ' 0J * - 1973
k J 1 &
) Q' A • D (
@'IN J J & @- '( > X L % ) O1 >
1
& *S G| . * E 0 E @
) Z ' * R % '? !J & M#{
g' 1 J 1
(
@(J
* ,> M @- '( > *& L % ) & F E % )
] Z GD B ; &
1973 g' 1 7 $ Z ? p k ' L & Z; )
N 9 1
A R *1 '1 $ ]> @') & D > & )
% ) & F E % )
* & J K' J '( >
*1 '1 % ) -
0J & @- '( > % ) % k N
* 'I& M# *& Y p k .
n " NJ & *S
"
Z ,&
"
@1 *L U ? * - AJ * -
& D > & *( E J * #1 % '& = ? % V7 • J & Z; " NJ
! ' * '1; % ) k N
* [ K7 0 E & @- & Z GD R & g , M# &
* 1
" . Z ,&
"
Z * #1 X# 2 ' AJ * - 1357
/ 1979 ! P+ % ) J J
Y; D ! Z;
& X# ! P+ 0 1 o Z & h L ? FD G> ! .
X#
@ :E ! * ( ' L * A 'N o Z * #1
Z; 1 & % ] 1 % )
) @ E ' J 9 @- '( > % ) ! % ' &
N 2] D r K& % )
S 7
: ; D ! %
@ ) J &
.
o @ ' E
J =! ; & ] D ) % )
P J 1 K'G >
[> J P' + % )J ' * ' % )
@ :E )
J * 1 % & *& L % )
* . * 9 Z -( c X 1
@ :E @' E AJ > g L >
X 1 % )
?
@- % ) FR J & ' J 9 '9
]l J ) ] % )
J " & * M 7 . K' )
S 7 Z ' E <7 @GD
@ :E %
* @1 % )
&
.
n ' 1 *& Y Z ? B ; 9 &
"
Z ,&
"
* * - 0 ^ 2 '
h L O1 > @ 1990
@1 '+ " NJ & &
.
! ' & D > & @ 0 ^
% ) X Y
[ J & 6 7 8' 9 * - <& &
) ) 0 1
%J '9 % )
% & > N J I' Z m - ! 6 ) AJK( % ( , J C Y Z; Z & :> g& N
% > :
% G D Z ' F' % '? !J & 0 E K' J X L 2 S K'9 @- % )
#1
? : ; J Z *
* ! 1 % ) G ; ! % ' & 7 e+ . * J 7 %
' > &
J#L Z * #1 % G D ' L * R * D D ? ) @'IN J %J
! @- @ K > Z > %J ' J 9 2 S J Z @- '( > * > & Z & e? 'l > &
S * > & ) 9 e? 'l > & K' 6 7 8' 9 g L
!J & % & k> g& N
" >
"n
"
Z ,&
"
* @] Z; & ; k> g& N * - .
]L A G- d )
"
* - Z ,&
"
! @ 'N 1 * )J•+ % &
@- . % )
* N *1 &
* )
B ; & W]S ] J >
*& Y Z )J•+
"
* - Z ,&
"
* R
-1 * ; ! & '?
Z L & B ; H I> ) @- p k % ) Z )J•+
g' ,> % ) 1
"
"* L
O', o' ; % )
"
e+ g& N
"=
* *& !
K' ?
*
* '&! & C Y K' @- . % ) Z )J•+ &
! 9 *c > % )
k N % & * 'N 1 G > @- ! &
% ) 7; Z ,& @- J % )
&
Z L &
"
"n
"
Z ,&
"
N *1 & * - 1 C'> > & J
k N % & * 'N
& 7; Z ,& @- . % ) 9 % )
C Y
g' ,> J K >
* Q1 * 7 & M# ) .
* S ) @' ) Ku E ' & 2 o Z L &
0 1 *( E F' 1985
A 9 @- : & ) @ 'N '&
27
>
35 0 1 ! Y; & & Z 1 1986
) @ 'N
! & A 9 @- : &
10
„ 1
Hershey Jr., 1989)
.(
*> *1 & o
*&
' G1 & o+J VL X L % ) % I> * L % VL % & C k> % )
* @ 'N „ 1 * . g'( Z ! 1
&
: L 0 1 ] Q1 ! % I1 Z &
1985 *& &
' G1 & g * L [ K7 $ & 9 @- '( > o+J O1 > <UJ % )
! * GD % ) ! & & A 9 @- 2U L % $ 2
!J : & Z ' '
0 1 1985
&
5 0 1 !J : & Z ' ' 1986
'1 .
N ?
) F' @ 1
[)
) . @- @ 'N
1
% I & @- : & Z ' ' 1
. ; [) Z ' '
* !J
„ 1 & D > & '( > [ K7 &
17
>
25
@- @ 'N %
* Z & L * - ; [ K7 iL & O 7 * GD % ) ! &
P:L & : &
;
! ['& ! )
27
× 2 (=
54
! & !J Z ' ' )
10
× 5 (=
50 Z ' '
!J =J 7 2 ' C'> > & J [) !J 5
1 Z & L % & @- : & Z ' '
O1 > @- 2U L & * NJ & @] ; [) ' ' F' J o M ] >
! 2
* > 7 !J : & Z ' '
@7 .
*& & C'> > &
' G1 & Z & L * L
! o+J % VL % & C k> % )
0 1 ] Q1 1985
& & @L 1 & @7 ? R % ; 7 ! Y; 2S
% & %
L % ) O1 > @- '& d ) =J 7 J \ c 1
! & " ] M ' J o+J VL X
@1 '1 ? AJ > & . J g ]> @- )
%
% 1 ! % k N WS N 7
0 1 @- @ 'N [) g L o+J VL X L % ) 1986
A 1 o J E &
0 1 1985
@ .
@1 '1 m c> g'(
> % k N 'D > ? ) N 7 w UJ & % )
@(J O1
% )
*& L % ) & F E @1 )
! ['& 2 >J c1 % SL &
60
A J ' '
& ) h L > : ' E A . &
( E g' :> C Y
X Y % k N . , % )
( 1 @ ) • D Z D Z * #1 % G D ' L
* *7 I %
‡') !J
>
DJ h L O1 > Z; ! Y; v k9 % .
Z + & @- ! & " ] @1 '1
% $ HN K' Z ' L h L • D 7 e+
17 0 1 % D 1990
J * I
J @ Z A#L k U ' E A . Z ' L • D Z + ! I& 0 1
*& L , )
o ) 700000
>
1 o+J X k ' G1 ! '& !J : & Z ' '
* . @-
( J @- @ 'N „ 1 )
Z ' L h L • D Z !
! ['& "
22 o " J A J ' ' N h L ' 9 % k N % )
&
( R 2 E & G> M L
2 & . . *
"
% k N ˆ• D
"
h L ' L
Ibrahim, 1990)
* S ) J(
O1 > 0 ^ J @ & * R 2 E F'
0 1 @1 ? AJ * I G> ! I& o ! F) h L 1990
@1 '+ " NJ &
N A > * NJ * E ' E A . [> J
% ) n 9 9 * R % )J ' Z GD
' ‡') & & h L & E ; Z & L
! * ' C L & U E • D ! 'Y %
* Z ? * > @ n 9
* ' ,> P& [>; = e+ .
P+
! P+ ! & % & *( E * ' ,> • D
^ @,> *U % '?
[> O1 > 0
=J ! - 1 & h L
* & Z '1 % & * . 7 @ DJ K' ; @ ( % )
T',.
* :7 B ; ! >
*
& ' 9 .
& *& L @- '( > % ) @ ) : ; F' [ v k9 B ;
@1 '1 m c> @ 1
& * - % ) 2) % k N 'D > N 7 *
1980 g'(
@1 '1 m c>
? & )
* T > K' & g > % :
0 1 1983
* ' A ' J
: ; L#$ %K P 3; @NJ P'u
) '1 (
> -1 % I1 Z & L & M kc
& & L % I1
% & %K
! & " ] W $ ! @- * GD @ 'N [)
. Z & L ; " @ 'N [) & D > & @- '( > [ K7 d ?
* [ K7
,' > 9 Z : w $ W7 % D 0 ]N Z & L = +
D D ! * : ; p % )
15 - F '1 J g
0 % )
& P J; + ) ) J .
0 1 ! %J ') D ,>
1973 '( > ! & Z '1 &
11
!J @- : & Z ' ' )
@ DJ X Y & Z; A 1 o J . Z : ( & $ &
( Z ? '( > < D & M# L
" ] J U % & * ' A ' J 'D > J & 1 '+ Z GD @- r K&
O1 > @- ! &
0 kE g& N ( & $ & * - % ) ; [) F) @- '( > X L % )
& %J ') D ,> O1 >
Schweizer, 2003: 117)
.(
! & " ] @ 1 & X L % ) @ ) % & : ; *G'D > D * : ; W& 1 $ Z; @- ]E k
G| 9 % )
0 E M ' E
% ) ,
"
F ' & &
"
F) J 7 ? g:
"
Z & &
"
[ ? @ L
2) AJ 2 ' ! @- ! & " ] & o+J VL X L % ) 1980
@'IN J & &
( J % G D @1 Z J % k N K I B ; @1
Z ) P:'
Reaganomics
(
* L M I B ; p#9 & K' @1 7 ? C (
! g: M 7 .
K) [)
'( [) * (J % )
W $ ! A > 0 J * (J [) )
: & ] 0 + 2U L 0 6
, * K' @ 'N Z ! ' & @- & *1 1 0 1
%
* > g: gE
(Stagflation)
@ +J F) J : ; F)
. 0 1 ! <N J
1973
>
1981
& & & * 'N H 1 n 9 '( > @- % & : ; @(J
@ 'N Hk
& 9 g J g E [c& K' J < . & C'> > & J ''I> * GD % )
! @-
* ' & 1 g9 '( >
! 1983 Z ! @- ! - 1 I& &
9 1 9 g J g E [c& K' J < . & Z ' & 1 % & ' J 9
@(J Z L % & J N
' J 9 2 S K'9 @- % ) & F E % )
K) g] > v k9
% )
& A! *N G& 'D > G> ) ! K' w $ % D
- 1 .
' J 9 : ; =#> 1 • D Z J *$
S % ) ,> 2D
% )
^&
J '1 1
(...
& F ' m - = ? ' L .
% D ! Y; J 1 • D 7 e+ Z + &
@ 0 ^
h L O1 >
-
: ; @NJ '-1 [ v k9 Z B ) % J
DJ g > J W' > % D Z; " NJ -
& S 9 * R VE @ > : ;
[ *L Z L
"
h L N Z!
"
) [ K7 .
% D ! P+
11 ] Q1
2001
& ! ] 2 G& & * R VE w#1 K' J F J >
0 ^ & *I D % )
J VE AJ > % & : ; 2 G& K' Z; ! P+ J ' h L J Z ^7 J * R m - & & Z! [ % - S % ) & ] D J * ' % ) N I
'{:> ! @I K' J S Z w#1
@1 & *I D % ) .
: ; <N J
+ ‰ E
& ' J 9 2 S % ) n 9 9 * J * ) * ' ! % )
Z 9 % G :E 1 % & ' V> *L Z L
S % ) ] % )
"
*& ! &
"
! & ' & ':> & J
@ :E <U > =#> *&
@1 % )
@1 '1 & ) Z ) ' L S : ; % )
o K F) & Z .
0 1 > d ? 2009
S 7 N G >
8' 9 S *> ' L * R + % %
0 1 2 3 & : ; 6 7 2008
& 7 @(J
"
"@1 9
0 1 ~ 2007 @(J
*& L , )
0 1 ! 1995
@1 & *L 7 Z '+ % 7 &
( v k9
% 7 + o ‰ E
@ 7 *]| & 1 Moore, 2008)
]9 + .(
Z; w 7 26
0 1 * 2009 *> > 2] D '&
-
J * >
& D > &
N 8 / 6
0 1 % ' '
2008 9 % & 7 &
63 3 ' J 7 2000
J
390
% o > 1 A
65 P
* X , * ! ; + o Z; Z >
. +
+ & A 1 % 7 % )J ' * ) 104
% ) & ! *: @ ' E -R(
+
& A 1 * )
"
L N -R(
2 (
"
! @1 *]| &
1 ] 2009 I>
3 J 7
3 ' 5 - 2000 J 57
? Z; % 7 * R -
. @1 *( E
[c& 1 ' ; J ! J + % ) & -R( + ' ) % )
% ) '+ ) % & F) % I % )
G+
* 1 Z :1 :'+
380 Z 1 @9 1 % ) '+ ) g : ; * ) %J '
KC-)
10 Extender
+ % ) '+ ) J( E-3 Sentry)
'R *1 1 D od % ) '+ ) F) (
U-2 Dragon Lady)
+ J 7 J 0 ! J + % & A! '1 > 2' F) J (
ZJ & % )
J *1 1 D ' 1 p )
g']N ! X
RQ-4/MQ-4 Global Hawk)
DJ (
.
1 IMFEAU Implantation militaire française aux Émirats arabes unis (= French Military Settlement in UAE")
2:1 o % 7 % )J ' * + 300
& % 200 F E
* ! & !;
* &
% c&; % % ) 10
* J ' & G+ Z; >
1 g, @1 N
75
% 7 * R
&
. Z ? + o F) )J ' * ' ! +
<N J * ! ; 50
* *]| & % ' U E 0 E &
93
% 7 * R
GL % D 9
) * ,. J % G • D =! ;
Cody, 2009)
.(
' 0 E ) & @7 e+ & p .J &
J * :E % )
@(
& F E % )
Z! % D & G ; $ & 6 7 8' 9 2 S K'9 @- % )
% )
S 7
Z 9 * ; ! J J %
N ! ) & F E % )
% )
@ & & Z! > % & K'd ) ! g]N *D 9
* - 1 9 % )
‡')
@1 '1 % ''^>
& > F @1 S % ) ! o ‡') *D 9 % )
@ ' k> g& N D B') .
J '1; % ) % k N < 1 @1 *( E
*1 1 1 & * I . % ) 1 & K' J : & @& N *L '? G ; '1 'N
%3 <& &
@& N Z D @1 '+ -? J Z GD H c „
)
K > g'( & ' J 9 2 S 8
/ 51
%
>
7 / 61
%
& z( & '( > J p I * - <& ! 56
%
Z GD @- g
EIA, 2008)
& ) 9 % , * % (
.
0 1 2007 Z J & + 3 032
/ 5 : & Z ' ' ' 1 !J A 9 @-
CIA,2009)
Z J & 'd J (
21 / 4 ' Gd !J @- : & Z ' '
CIA,2009) (
F) *& D J & Z GD @- r K& J 37
/ 2 FG D !J : & Z ' '
CIA,2009)
@1 *( E J & v k 9 9 & Z GD @- J (
! '
% k N < 1 & A ? F) ' J 9 @- & '1 'N J '1; % ) A >
@1 & [ K7 0 E & S .
+ 3 0 1
1972 ! ['&
80
%
! 9 ! ' @-
' J 9
* ' >
&
S 7 '+ * I . k N % ' c Z L
'1 'N J '1; 2 n ! I&
0 1 * - 1973
@- ' > <& & Z ' c& " >
) J [ K7 W $ !
g{ * ) !
J o K: %K J * E
'd W 9 % G D
& @- . Z ! Z;
(
+ 3 A n l & d N 9 1
' c 9 k N *-
*$
0 1
& > AJ * GD • D ! P+ % ) .
[) G > G #> A > 2 '
& + 3 @- ' > ' J 9 FG1 9
/ 67
% 1987
&
' Q % F) Z;
: [GD
% )
0 1 ! 'd % k N < 1 1993
Z J & ! ' I& &
J A 9 @-
o K: J %K J 'd ! + 3 @- J
F) 0 1 ! 1990
d @7 [)
' J 9 FG1 M ' J & D @- % & * 9 % U > [ K7 & 9 ) 0 1 ! + 3 @- ' >
1990 @7 [ K7 M I& &
&
0 1 % $
2005
E J 2 / 90
% ' > ' J 9 ! + 3 *> J A 9 @-
@1
Hisane, 2007)
.(
0 1 2006 ! ['& & @- @ 'N 72
@- J M ' J '1 : & ) % &
& Z GD H c „ ! + 3 8
/ 0
% 0 1 & @] [) 2005
& "
53 / 1 ' '
'1 : &
.
& *)
* Z + 3 @- ' > ' J 9 FG1 )
0 1 2006 Z K' & @- % & * 9 % U > [) &
8 / 0
% =#> & D
0 1 % $ ' J 9 ! @- J 2D [) A > >
2006 J 9
' 1
% 0 1 ! 2005 ' >
+ 3 k N * & J J & + 3 *> J A 9 @-
& 0 1 ' J 9 @- &
2 / 89
%
& '1
Hisane, 2007)
.(
! *1 '1 % e+ S9 Z K' Z gN E + 3 =#> F) ' J 9 % ) Z ' 0 1 % $ & @1 & <& " > Z { E W $ 2006
Z & L !
458 *& L , ! Z ' ' 387
Z ! J Z ' ' 176
* I 9 @- : & Z ' '
30 % Z & L ! 0 1 + 3 *> J A 9 @- g 4
/ 25
%
J !
5 / 11
% Z !
1
' > ) 1 ! ' & J
Hisane, 2007)
.(
+ 3 @- J C' > & ? 0 1 Z GD W$ 1 !
2006
* F' @N F' '&
& '1J ! + 3 @- J & ' c % & 0 1 *$
5 / 3
%
& [ K7 11
: & Z ' '
& 7 ! + 3 @- J J 5
/ 30
%
& [ K7 70
@1 '1 : & Z ' ' .
DJ &
[ K7 0 1 '1J ) 2006
' >
7 / 0
% ' > 7 J 4
/ 4
%
@- J g
@1 & + 3 .
0 1 2 3 2007
r K& @ ' J Z 1 ' ; @
* + 3 @- [ + g ,> % & Z & m; % G D ! A 9 @- : & Z ' ' o &
% 9 6 *B ; + &
. 9 ! + 3 A 9 @- 9 '(J
! *: Z L & F) + 3 K ( ) P:Q @- p @ & Z & m; % G D
.
! " !#
$ %& ' ( ! ) *+
,- ( ! .
/
% ) 1 &
2 3 , !4
2
%& )" ( 5 # )
/
%
4 ' 73
(
!9 $
!: ; !3 <=;
, & ( ! > ? !9 ; @ .
A >B ,C D"EB %& F +3 3!G
$ ( ! !H I B? ( J $K +%& ( , # 4 AL M
% )
% 7 5N;
.
B 3!G )+1C
) #! $ F !*& 7 C
<=; )3 " !# )& ( J $K ( , # OJ
$ $ # ! & ! F!P 3 &
#$
& ( BQ R !Q $!# A SP B# T ! ) U !#
)3 V W# . 2
%& )" ( 5 #
A ) 1 & A )3 !3 R !Q $ 2
/ M
% G Hisane, 2007) (
.
1 Z; 9m %J F'(J + [' & @ %
@1 % e?
. d ) A N
FG1 &
2 / 89
& K'd + 3 @- ' > ' J 9 % .
* R
1
=#>
@ ? % )
@- ' > <& " > { E % & * + 3 * - % )
* ' J 9 ! \ 9 <& ! • J & J
&
Hisane, 2006)
.(
• J X E + 3 F) J 'd F) W $ ! 9 ! ' @- ! * c& ' > % & %
*N % ]'1 2( ( O9 A ; 6 'N &
) Q ( 'd & '1J % ]'1 A 9 @- @1 &
! & ) 0 J + 3 .
I 1 d ) ! Y; % & '1J W > R & :+
@- > *1J @ O1 > Z; g' :> ! P+ @1 & ( ( O9 ! *& I ‰ E 0 1 % & ! 2011
&
20
!J ) 0 0 1
300
@ A 9 @- : & K)
@9 + & & 'd & '1J @- !J 25
Z; ' ' '1J & A J ' '
@1 @ 7 ? @9 + @- > & M '
.
& 'd * & J ( ( O9
' J ' J 9 ! @- J
0 1 ! M 7 V ) 9 [) 7; K 2007
O9
( (
@'7 | & % 120
X Y & A 9 @- 0 0 E F) Z N KN ! !J : & K)
@1 & 'd
Ausick,2009) .(
1 K' 'd D o]1 & *? ! = ? D < . & J#L '1; 2 S % ) -
* %3 ' > ]l & <& DJ AK M N '1 'N
&
.
0 1 2005 'd *kc % )J 9 I>
52 / 18 0 1 & 1 Z ' ' 2006
! ['& &
20 '1 1 Z ' '
People's Daily, 2007)
0 1 > * '] '+ J(
2020
gN E & FN 140
Z ' '
'1 ) 9 J 9 1
Business Report ,2006) .(
:+
9 dJ G O 7
) 0 1 Z + : & @ ' 2008
['& & % @c + G
! 64 [c& % > * )J 9 " 1 Z ' '
@ 9 & Z; * R 'Y g J g E
! ['& I> ! J 7 ? 41
O1 2 ]$ *. k9 @':( @,> J 9 Z ' '
@1 & 'd G|
g'] > I> Š % $ &
W 9 % G D *kc % )
0 1 'd 2008
& @]
2007 ! ['&
28
%
*
&
NBS of China, 2009) .(
J 'd % { 1 & : ; % '1 'N J '1; 2 S % ) 1 C Y & *(
* * ' ]1
, > J 'Q' '7 *& D + 3 ! '( 1 J &
S
* * > '1 'N J '1; : ; % .
! % ! 0 1 ) )
D d J * R % )
* D Z; ! @ : ; & ]
& Z >
'( > '
Talisman Sabre)
Z > :'( & '( 1 & ( Balikatan)
'Q' '7 & (
' '
Keen Sword)
] %#$ + 3 & ( Cobra Gold)
h $ J > & (
o'-1 +
RIMPAC)
Z GD J S % ) ! % ! I> Z ! F) VE & (
.
0 1 T . Z '+ DJ & : 1951
0 1 + 3 &
1960
@ : @(J
& A 1 '& % V & J * GD AJ • D Z D 0 ^ J 9
"
% : )
] D J @' J
"
; * '+
+ WE ! Z; CD & :
* R % )
+ 3 n 9 -
+
& z( & o * ) 53000
% D 9 * : ; %J ' -
? 9 &
. F ' = ? S9 & & I Z ! Z '+ @ L d ?
* *7 I J ') D ,> * +J 7 &
2 G& *( G> & & K' %
@1 & Z; AJ > % & * . .
1953 • D ! P+ . 7#& J
1950-1953)
* ' 2 7 > *& D & : ; (
• D : ; [> - > V ] D J 33000
J 101000 J & * 9!
* ' 2 7 > CD &
% ! o ) W7 > : ; J *& D ] D J
U E 0 E Z; 2 ' * '+ " 7 *D 9 !J > & &
25000 %J '
+ * : ; F) *& D Z ! & 1 J & *& D <N J % )
1 h L * E F) J A J ' D * : ; Z ! &
Oberdorfer,2005) .(
0 1 ! B ; 2010
* @1 '+ " NJ & KD G] I& &
2 Z L & >
S 7# 9 > ! *]( D ' &
@1 '1 @GD % N % )
S 7 % )
%
'? N I( S .
0 1 ! g]N >
2010
@] *& D @(J : ; @(J p#9 &
HSI M# *IU *( &
W $ ! J '& #: gE & g J @
% : ) = ?
& *( Z %JK F ,> J % k N J * ) 7 % ) .
g
• D ) * p#9 & *& D Z D D
&
*( M ' E
% )J ' VE @ L Z N 0 ‹1 & % [ ? J * > G> o
*+ % ) * 1 $ & *& D J n 9 * : ; 6
p ) %;
w#1 '{:> & & G ; !
* *7 I *( O1 > *I D % )
@
*
Snyder, 2004)
.(
* 1 R * E 0 1 % )
2006
@ Z; ! @ :E *& D
53 'd [ *& D A ! . )
L )
@(J Z ]' + >
@1 X , *(
(
* *& ! @]{ '1; #: gk7 J gE
The )
Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 2006 .(
% : ; F) + 3 A <S 90
& C N J + 53
n 9 * R K)
* Z;
Z g'SI> J * : ; Z ' R \J 9 Z ) 9 % Z ! ) ! ['& &
+
& % ) .
0 1 ! d ? 1952
! ['& * : ; Z ' R 200000
l E
r iL & @ D J 1076
* + 3 * R 'Y
! J 1972
! ['& gN E 6000
[ + 3 !J > J @ 9 & O]> J + AJ > & * U L
0 1 + 3 * : ; Z ' R VE 1995
'1 9 \J & &
. 4 0 1 ] Q1
1995 g'? 6
(Marcus Gill)
Œ ) : J ) & * %J ' !
(Rodrico Harp)
'( o J
(Kendrick Ledet)
+ 1 ) : ; * Z -> E J !
) •
(Camp Hansen)
J ' J <N J
(Okinawa)
o D ! I& &
o ZJ %J 9
9 ! ; [ 12
*( E F J X U ! P+ J & * + 3 2( 1
1 !J > & & X $ & [ + J @1 J C d & [ ) J F d N *I D .
7 > & 1 & =#> : ; @(J @ D X :> ! P+
D % )
* R 1
? O1 > J : ; n 9 , * : ; % )
? \ .
: ; @NJ G D P'u Z ' g'& > iL & + 3 1 1 * : ; U ) R>
F' > & F) 21
' ! ! . + p k> @,> % )
J ' J : ; % )
)
"
19
%
KD @E !
* g (
* : ; : D 1 g ,> & F) J
o B 0 ' ; F) J @ 7 + 3 , @GD
(U.S. Navy Admiral Richard
C. Macke)
]E k *$ A ; 6 'N : ; * %J ' @NJ 7
%
0 1 ] 1995
& -?
"
& > 1 %J 9 D @& & B ; 0 I *^ ]
p . * & A ; - 1
* ' & @ 9 & * + 3 *Q1J o >
"
P+
0 ' ; ! D [) !
4 0 ' ; & 1 2
A#L ! & 1 .
? ](
& O 7 * : ; Z ' R * + 3 5
/ 6
>
7 0 1
! P+ A :, @ Y @9 + J Z !
0 1 * ) @' :, Z e?
2003
J ' J KD A #: J !;
0 1 2 7 ? @7 Z B ) * : ; Z ' R &
2008 * R o 38
2( 1
9 o & !J > A G> & * : ; 14
1 * + 3 2( 1 U L & J '
' ‡') & + 3 * : ; Z ' R VE AJ > & * J '1 %
7 0 1 ]
2012 KD ' ) * + 3 Z! o & !J > J F J X U & FG * R J K'
Kakuchi, 2012)
.(
> & @] * U L = ? & J J + J Z ' R VE AJ
% )
! *> N 1 & * : ; * R 10
] 2009
* o' & J * D % )
0 @,> ! Y; W N Z ' [>; & J *( * ? W N o & *& D
@7 ? N .
1 g: *(J ,& % & ]9 ! - 1 *& Y % )
% V7 Z Z *
*$ & % ) J A > g{ K' J & @'IN J KD G]
0 1
% '? ?! Y; *& D Z ' R 0 I W]$ • D Z + ! P+ % )
& ) .
* NJ I& Gd 26
6
2010 * D *
1200 Z ‹d * >
(Cheonan
Navy Corvette)
& A 1 : ; & n 2 1 A 'E *& D
Key )
Resolve
J h Y (
46
! >
104
1 *( E Z; 2 9 -
*& D % )
• 1 0 ' ; 2]E k & 1 &
•
(Admiral Song Young-moo Former South Korean Navy
Chief of Staff )
W L & D > & *& D * %J ' 1 W& 1 P'u 25
% G&; %
• ‹' & KD p $
(Baengnyeong Island)
Z D DJ J
* ' & % )
* ! VE Z : M 1 1 S
'I& l E g, p $ *( % )
*
Chosun, 2010)
& D @( 9 ? ) F) *( J (
1 J Z ' [>; 0 ]> ! *& Y % )
* Z h Y @ L J ]9 J % )
! *: ! o' % ) 3 O1 > Z; 7 ? N @& . F) Z ‹d
* !
* *7 I *( % )
W N Z ' Z Z G + &
* 'd % ' ') % )
& ! ] Z > % > p ) & M N -> % K? & g, & 9 & >
* !
1 & & % K? & 0 E *( % )
Reuters, 2010)
.(
[>; 0 ]> " U
J *& D " 7 !J O1 >
29 6 2010 @ L *& D " 7 !J F)
' ! *: - M E * Z h Y
• D Z J ! % D & % )
*7 I .
*1 &
Z F) ! h Y * % & Z \ 9 ! P+ % )
. & * J + 9 & : @& . * & % 3 M 1 1 c
*‹' - J )
@1 Z; Z h Y iL & * ! ZJ '&
.
J ) % J DJ &
O1 > & L! o & Z; Z g ]> ! @I & g w UJ & *& D J *(
%! 1 ]9 1 % )
%! 1 1 J ) D > % & * ,& & *& Y Z 1 % )
J U '
+ J Z ' R VE 1
g ]> & - 1 g& N S * : ; * R % ) .
%! 1 ]9
* ) ' -> ! )
"
" E Z ‹d * &
29 6 2010 €1 +
& *(
"
"@ :
% '? * %J '
10 ] 2009
* *7 I
Y;
* ' *( % ) 3 ! H % & B ; ! % J k> * E J !
% ) W]S *( 8 = ' & M 1 1 G ; %J %
] .
*1 & v k9 * NJ
h Y * \ 9 ! ISN 2 1 % )
@‹') K' % )
1 A#L ['+ ! R *& Y Z 1 ! g: *1
% )
@‹') J P:I *& Y
7 *1J J * 'd Z 1 ! g: % )
M# * )
& @& J -
"
" ]l
* ! [
% ? 7 & *( % )
<& % )
"
+ &
"%
J @ 1 W]$
1 0 Z '& J A % 7 X Y & & J % )
g & Z
"
"* '
* -? ] J
*& D & *( ! *?! > &
) +
C( D D ! '1
-? & 1 G ; >
) + % )
J ! %
‹d ); I A & O 7 0
A
(Ahn Cheol-nam)
*
&
"
* $ 9 &
" J;
! *:
g & ! & [ ;
"
"* '
*
& -? ]& [ >
" : ...
6 G 1 =
<'7 > F) K' ; @' 7 E $ 9 & J & J & Z ‹d * & E * ! N 0 F) J D
@1 ? SL W 9 o'> % G D Z G
"
Korea Times, ).
(2012
%! 1 ]9 & 7 ? N F) ! P+ d ? K? "
'] n : % )
>
g' ,> J K > > )
" UJ Z * ,& % l M# [ 0 E ) & *IN J % )
J KD G]
+ * : ; Z ' R VE 1 J U ]l M '
% )
Z ' R VE AJ > & W7 Z 1 '1 % & F @1 J J h D 1 G J; F) 7 + 3 J *& D : ; 9 * , % ]N & & *7 %
@1 &
. : & D > ](
* % J U K' 0 1 d ? &
AJ • D ! I& % )
g'( & *& D & = ? & J $ & + 3 J : ; O& J * GD [ > 2 & 1 K' J %! % ) L & O]> #:
* + 3 & *c > )
% k> >
; R k> & W]S M 'N F) g'( ' ) & J & + 3 ! :
1998
J A @ e? + 3 n 9 ! 7 ! [ !; *: *( * NJ
% + Z ' & *( & + 3 #: @1 g : ; ! *& D -? W $ ! D & *& D
% ) 6 gE ] D
* d @ U gk7 J
Zissis, 2006)
.(
L 0 I $ &
'& g: >
*( & %! 7# 9 *& D * (
* *7 I
! 1953 '+ S ) *N & gE !J & >
c. KD @':( *L J ) + 3 J *& D
: %
! ) 1
1954
&
@1 ; *& D 0 ^
CIA,2008)
.(
7J > KD & @':( WE + 3
Etorofu)
% ' ( Kunashiri)
Z > :' ( Shikotan)
< J (
* & ) K (
Habomai) (
'1J & *N & '1J 0 @,> * GD AJ • D ! P+
' J p# 9
V T . Z '+ + 3 J '1J Z ' * GD AJ • D Z + ! Z N F' @ e? & J ! ) 'd & + 3 )
* 9 n 9 KD Z; g 'd Z > K' J (
@':( 1 &
> : 1 KD
Senkaku-shoto)
'd % *( E J p# 9 (
*N
% k, % k N • J 2 S
Exclusive Economic Zone)
! ? J @- p % & 9 (
* N
[c& F @1 @':( *L 'd
@1 Z; ! * )
CIA, 2008)
'Q' '7 .(
p# 9 A J J Z > %K( 'd & * > Q1 KD L ! % I> @':( %J
% G D & e J *c > % L %K( w ]1 @( %J 'Q' '7 2
'1 * G 2 ' & ! ) * % )! ''I> % & J + .
%! 7# 9 & J#L %K(
gE 7# 9 % & K' ' X; <& F' > + 1 &
*
&
. M G & %K( J 'Q' '7 %K J % L Z Q'1 J Z ' '( KD d ?
% CD &
17 0 1 ] 2002
'& Z e? J %K( & % ? * (
ICJ,2002)
c. KD & @':( J S * % )! (
* - n & J • %
] ;
* p# 9 ) Z ' Z B ) K'] 1 %
&
.
*‹ J & J 'Q' '7
& J N #7 * % )! • ] '( 2 S %! 7# 9 & J#L p ' L 7# 9 ' ) g'( & J '1 W7 > & ! ) W' L % G&; 6 'N
0 1 W$ @-
2003 HN
.
*
%K( & 2 > % > % )
0 1 J ! ) W I>
2007
& Z ] ? & @1 * % ! g: &
CIA 2008)
.(
Q> @':( & %K J J J ! F) '( 1 J & Ž I '( 1 O1 > ; * % )
& * K J Z ' ')
* g L & @I '> 2 S K' J S J;
.
%! gu
X . Y Z# )3 ! ? [M\2
T!3 ( $ ,& ] !# !+#
^ ;
# T, # & 3 ; B ( $ ,& G
Liancourt) (
4 ( _ )3 T `BL& , @ & ! + 3 a b & N N- + c& (K d#,
)3 ,&
[\.
)+G OJ ! ? ! b, ) N& ! ? ,&
)+ !J b & ' "B e ,&
.
T!3 3 !
( ,& c ; Q ! ?
T >
b `B? $ )_ !J 3 ! " !# # f&
$ !# ; & L?
? # g h%- ) )
!g ) T!3 %& ) (
i ) # jT !3 a 3 b & L? `B? $ D k5@ ! W#
T 1& ? # ' =+4 > 7* 7- ! # , R # )?
. 2
$ ! ? ! ! B; )+1C W#
Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China )
(Sea
l # )+ 1 & 3
2 3!G
! C # 3 # ( , b B+ E 5 j _ 3 ) %& 5#
,& !3 W# )# BN ; SP B# >& T$!C b Z&
.
J '& R ' ) & * ' ! % )! @'IUJ & *? '1 Z ' ' '> & %K J
J 7# 9 ? gk7 J gE % ! E > @1 ? g': >
! ) o> & J + * : 'Y KD
@1 *N & gE 6 u % )! ''I> 1
! ) • : J <N J KD @':( %J *& 9 @7 '+ d ? F) > J
* J %J 'd O1 > 1 ‰ E J 7 . * 7 >
% & *-L V % )
@1 p $ J )
.
@) ] & D >
% ) : 0 E g
& '1 'N J '1; % ) @'IUJ Z ' % '?
C( D * NJ ' J 9 K'9 @- % ) @'IUJ
B d F' @N ) 9 >
gE 7 . @L 1 & ' J 9 2 S % ) gk7 J gE % & C1 * )
'& J * 9 * ' #:
& #: ] 9 * (
% & X Y * . K& Z L
K) g' ,>
K& J & ) 9 - 1 S % ) & * R VE AJ > % )
) 9 ' % & * ) Z L & F)
% J '1; G % & * ) F) J 2 ' J 9 S
J 9 ! 9 ! ' %3 ' > W$ J '1 'N
) 9 N - 1 '
@7 ? .
* : ; % G> N * ' ! E M L * 1 $ & ' J 9 2 S N * +J -
J ! 1 [ % - ! D Z GD W$ % G> N & K? ) !J & > J S * ' ]'> > J *1 '1 % )
@1 . J 9 2 S F) : ;
! - 1 & * ' ]1 Z N & ! P+ ) '1 'N J '1; 2 S F) J '
@(J Z ' g& N J D 7# 9 J ) V>
% K& Z L & ]1 )
GD *1 '1 J % k N O& J @ ) % &
N - 1 9 <7 J p ) @
@1 .
]E k ?
% ) )
C e:> K? ) J (
Z & L Z AK v k9
2) @- ! & " ] & : ; O1 >
1980 [ Z + ? *& ! L g& N
1 % & ! ' @- ' > ' J 9 2 S % ) Z GD W$
) D !
@ % ! 7# 9 *&; % )! F) '( 1 & '> 1
0 1 2005 % & 7# 9 w $ W7 >
50 0 1
2 S ! \ 9 * & J ') <& \ c 1 ! g. E ; J & HN
Joint Petroleum )
Development Area (
Timor Sea Treaty) (
0 1 2002 F' > %J $ & J '& & H I>
.
N
'1; % k N G| % )
( J 9 2 S % ) % k N O& J @') F'R >
*D 9 @1 '1 : ; 2N#L % ) '^ ! *: & Z GD % ) 1 & '
? ) 9 0 &
R VE 1 ' V> % & : ; M 7 V
F) 9 *
g ? DJ 1 ! '1 'N J '1; F) J 6 7 8' 9 2 S 0 I7 J = 9 % )
) 9 0 ] 1 ' J 9 ) % )! ZJ '& F) J ZJ F) * ' .
* I Z & % J ' d J '1; F) J 6 7 8' 9 2 S F) Z (J &
> '1 'N N 6 N @' }-E A G- *IN J @') & D > . G
% )
J ZJ F) *IN J @' *L & A G- K( ! 7 ? . 7 % & =#> J *& Y
@7 ) 9 @1 9 % )! % J
.
:
1. American Information Web (2009): “Taiwan Relations Act: Public Law 96-8 96th Congress (Approved April 10, 1979)” Available (15 December 2009) online at:
http://usinfo.state.gov/eap/Archive_Index/Taiwan_Relations_Act.html
2. ANTARA (28 March 2007): “RI has proper reason to support sanction on Iran”.
Available (1391/09/28) online at: http://www.antara.co.id/en/print/?id=1175067966 3. Ausick, Paul (2009): “Russian Oil Pipeline to China Gets Closer & Closer” in (24/7
Wall Street (April 17, 2009 at 9:15 am). Available (5 October 2009) online at:
http://247wallst.com/2009/04/17/russian-oil-pipeline-to-china-ggets-closer-closer/
4. Balita News (April 17, 2009)"Exercise Balikatan 2009: A highlight of robust RP-US partnership" Available (15 December 2009) online at:
http://balita.ph/2009/04/17/exercise-balikatan-2009-a-highlight-of-robust-rp-us- partnership/
5. Beazley, Kim (2003): “Whither the San Francisco Alliance System?” in Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 57, No. 2, July 2003.
6. Business Report & Independent Online (September 3, 2006) “Number of cars in China to rise seven-fold by 2020”. Available (5 October 2009) online at:
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=565&fArticleId=2211763
7. Chicago Council on Global Affairs (2006): The United States and the Rise of China and India, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs’ Global Views Team, 2006.
8. Chosun (Mar. 29, 2010): “What Caused the Cheonan to Sink?”. Available (1391/09/28) online at: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/29/2010032901069.html 9. Cody, Edward (2009): "First French Military Base Opens in the Persian Gulf" in The
Washington Post (Wednesday, May 27, 2009). Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2009/05/26/AR2009052602994_pf.html
10. Farnham, Alan (2012): “An American Oil Find That Holds More Than All of OPEC”, in ABC News, Nov. 13, 2012. Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/american-oil-find-holds-oil-opec/story?id=17536852 11. Federation of American Scientists –FAS (2007): “U.S. Strategic and Defense
Relationships in the Asia-Pacific Region”. Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33821.pdf
12. Harvey, Fiona (2012): “US can become world's biggest oil producer in a decade, says IEA” in The Guardian, (Monday 12 November 2012). Available (1391/09/2) Online at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/12/us-biggest-oil-producer
13. Hershey Jr., Robert (1989): “Worrying Anew Over Oil Imports”in The New York Times (December 30, 1989). Available (1391/10/13) online at:
http://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/30/business/worrying-anew-over-oil- imports.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
14. Hisane, Masaki (2007): “Oil-hungry Japan looks to other sources.” In Asia Times Online (Feb 21, 2007).”Available (1391/10/13) online at:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/IB21Dh02.html
15. Ibrahim, Youssef M. (1990). "Iraq Said to Prevail in Oil Dispute With Kuwait and Arab Emirates" in The New York Times (26 July 1990). Available (1391/10/13) online at: http://www.nytimes.com/1990/07/26/world/iraq-said-to-prevail-in-oil-dispute-with- kuwait-and-arab-emirates.html?pagewanted=1.
16. Indonesia Matters (30 March, 2007): “UN Resolution 1747”. Available (1 March 2008) online at: http://www.indonesiamatters.com/1189/iran-1747/
17. International Court of Justice Press Release 2002/39 (The Hague, 17 December 2002):
The Court finds that sovereignty over the islands of Ligitan and Sipadan belongs to Malaysia. Available (1 March 2008) online at:
http://www.icj-
cij.org/docket/index.php?pr=343&code=inma&p1=3&p2=3&p3=6&case=102&k=df 18. International Energy Agency - IEA (2012): “World Energy Outlook 2012 (Executive
Summery)”. Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.pdf
19. International Energy Agency - IEA (2012): “North America leads shift in global energy balance, IEA says in latest World Energy Outlook - 12 November 2012”. Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2012/november/name,33015,en.html 20. Kakuchi, Suvendrini (2012): “Opposition to U.S. military bases in Japan reaches
turning point” in The Final Call (Dec 13, 2012) Available (1391/10/11) online at:
http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/World_News_3/article_9440.shtml
21. Korea Times (2012): "NK sailors awarded hero's title for attack on S. Korean warship: defector - 2012-12-08". Available (1391/10/11) online at:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2012/12/485_126450.html
22. Lankowski, Michael (2003): “America’s Asian Alliances in a Changing World,” in Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 57, no.1, 2003.
23. Makan, Ajay (2013): “US oil imports from Middle East increase” in The Financial Times (February 25, 2013).Available (1391/12/25) online at:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d792c648-7f46-11e2-89ed-00144feabdc0.html
24. Moore Molly (2008): “France Announces Base in Persian Gulf” in Washington Post (January 16, 2008; Page A11) Available (1391/10/11) online at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2008/01/15/AR2008011503298.html
25. Motavalli, Jim (2012): “U.S. To Become World's Biggest Oil Producer - But Hold The Applause” in Forbes (November 12, 2012). Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/eco-nomics/2012/11/13/u-s-to-become-worlds-biggest-oil- producer-but-hold-the-applause/
26. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China (2009-02-26): “Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2008 National Economic and Social Development” Available (5 October 2009) online at:
http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/newsandcomingevents/t20090226_402540784.htm 27. Oberdorfer, Don (2005) “The United States and South Korea: Can This Alliance
Last?” Policy Forum, November 17, 2005. Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0593Oberdorfer.html
28. People's Daily Online (February 28, 2007): “China has over 20 million privately-owned cars”. Available (5 October 2009) online at:
http://english.people.com.cn/200702/28/eng20070228_353091.html
29. Ratnam, Gopal (2005): “U.S. Asia Policy Faces Myriad Challenges” Defense News, June 13, 2005.
30. Rosenthal, Elisabeth (2012): “U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says” in The New York Times (November 12, 2012). Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top- oil-producer-in-5-years.html?_r=0
31. Reuters (2010): "North Korean torpedo sank Cheonan, South Korea military source claims" in The Guardian (22 April 2010). Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/22/north-korea-cheonan-sinking-torpedo 32. Schweizer, Peter (2003): Reagan's War: The Epic Story of His Forty-Year Struggle
and Final Triumph Over Communism, New York: Random House, Inc. (Anchor Books).
33. Spender, Sir Percy Spender (1969): Exercises in Diplomacy: The ANZUS Treaty and the Colombo Plan, Sydney: Sydney University Press.
34. Snyder, Scott (2004) “The Beginning of the End of the U.S.-R.O.K. Alliance,”
PACNET, August 26, 2004. in “US Policy to North Korea and the Relationship between South and North Korea”. Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.sejong.org/Pub_st/PUB_ST_DATA/kst002-12.pdf
35. US Army (2009): “Cobra Gold” Available (15 December 2009) online at:
http://www.usarpac.army.mil/cobragold.html
36. US Central Intelligence Agency (2008): Military Expenditures (Dollar Figure) in The World Factbook,. Available (1 March 2008) online at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications//the-world-factbook/rankorder/2067rank.html 37. US Central Intelligence Agency (2009): China in The World Factbook. Available (5
October 2009) online at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
38. US Central Intelligence Agency (2009): South Korea in The World Factbook.
Available (5 October 2009) online at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html
39. US Central Intelligence Agency (2009): Japan in The World Factbook. Available (5 October 2009) online at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html
40. US Central Intelligence Agency (2008): Malaysia in The World Factbook. Available (1 March 2008) online at:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/print/my.html
41. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (October, 2008): “Petroleum Data, Reports, Analysis, Surveys” Available (5 October 2009) online at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html
42. U.S. Energy Information Agency -EIA (2012):“How dependent are we on foreign oil?”
(Last Updated: July 13, 2012). Available (1391/09/28) online at:
http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm
43. U.S. Government Accountability Office – GAO (2012): “Unconventional Oil and Gas Production Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Shale Development (GAO-12- 740T)”. Available (1391/09/28) online at: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-740T
!
:
"
# $% & '()*+ ,+ - #+ ,+ . /% 0 12 !
"
3
$4 32 3 + 73
"6
•9 0 • *•1 '1 k N
•&
-
@'I D % 9 :
* 7 ')
"
$4U 35 7+ 3 75
"6
&1)879 :7;2' 7 <= >' 7?2 @' - & 87!
& 7A
&(!1 & ,+0 : ! B
"
$74 3 42 7+ 3 77
"6
& 7*D' :?7+ - # 7EF @ 74 :7G H<
#% 7$*F' –
:?+ = & A 8!
"
$4 3 57 + 3 81
"6 : ; % > F ' •) :
•1 •• D ! P•+ J O
"
3
$4 2 + 3
.87
"
I$%
F B + ,+ #J'1K L,7G - @'1 ' & *D' M2'- N1* K - #
) 1999 - 1979
"( 3
$4 4 + 3 V87
"
6#*P & A Q 4 - RS-' P # EF '> 2 RS-' * #+ 4 ,+0
"
$74 3 2 7+ 3
88
" 6 :,+ ,D' - ,+0 & *D' T?+ - : , - B &U1 ' , ' )
2008 - 1973
"(
$74 3 4 7+ 3 88
"6
& 7
» L 1P X2
«
& :?9 ; #*P & A 0 1 Z :
U-1 - @'1 ' : [
"
$4 3 2 + 3 89
"6 : 1+
& *D' :?+ - #% $*F'
#2 7 F 17! - @'1 ' &' : [ #+ 12
"
3
$74 2 7+ 3 V90
"
- R7 7
S- ' #A & A 9-
"
$4 3 4 + 3 90
"6 L,2 , ' - #% $*F' : 1+
#//$9'
"
$4 3 2 + 3 91 .