China's Energy Restructure and Carbon Dioxide Abatement

China

China ’ ’ s Energy Restructure and s Energy Restructure and Carbon Dioxide Abatement

Carbon Dioxide Abatement

Angang Hu

Center for China Study,

Chinese Academy of Science &

Tsinghua University March, 2002

I.Background: China is I.Background: China is

changing its growth pattern

changing its growth pattern

Characters of China

Characters of China’’s Economic s Economic Transition ,1995

Transition ,1995--9999

z Less capital investment, energy consumption and pollution emissions per unit economic output.

z Emerging new growth pattern from factor- concentrated growth to knowledge-based growth.

z Economic growth mainly depends on new industries with lower energy consumption and pollution emissions during the 9^th FYP, such as industries of Information, Tourism, Banking and Insurance, Education. Tertiary Industry raised 2.8 percent GDP during this period.

z Industrial pollution was controlled in the 9^th FYP, major pollutants emissions have declined 15-25 percent since 1996 by SEPA reports.

z Pollution emissions measured by unit GDP or industrial output have been rapidly declined.

z These changes mainly benefit from large scale economic restructure，especially energy

restructure.

China

China ’ ’ s Economic Indicators, 1990 s Economic Indicators, 1990 - - 99 99

11.3 19.9

Import Growth

10.9 19.1

Export Growth

10.6（10.7） 23.2（11.8）

Consumer Goods Retail Sale Growth

-0.5 5.9

Energy Consumption Growth

-3.3 4.4

Energy Production Growth

-0.1 11.4

Retail Price Inflation

1.8 12.9

Consumer Price Inflation

18.4（16.6） 17.2（4.3）

Finance Expenditure Growth

16.5（14.7） 16.3（3.4）

Finance Revenue Growth

11.2 36.9

Gross Fixed Investment Growth

0.9 1.2

Employment Growth

12.0 17.5

Fluctuation Coefficient

8.3 12.0

GDP Growth

The 9^th FYP The 8^th FYP

Indicators

Unit: ％

Note: fixed price in bracket

II.China

II.China ’ ’ s Energy Structure s Energy Structure Adjustment

Adjustment

z Coal-burning remains the chief contributor of air pollution; motor vehicle emissions will increase in the next 10 years.

z Energy efficiency has improved and coal consumption has declined. Because of

this,CO² emissions were much less than projected in the early 1990s.

Trends in Energy Consumption Trends in Energy Consumption

Energy consumptions present negative

growth during the 9^th FYP. The aggregate reduced 7.6 percent in 1999 relative to 1995.

Remarkably, coal consumption abatement is very obvious, reducing 16.3 percent during 1996-99.

Trends in Coal Consumption,1978

Trends in Coal Consumption,1978--9999

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Thousand tons

Energy Consumption Coal Consumption Coal Production

Change in Energy Density,1953

Change in Energy Density,1953--9898

International comparison in energy Density International comparison in energy Density

(Energy/GDP) (Energy/GDP)

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

注：世界平均水平为1.00 中国

印度 日本 俄罗斯 美国

III.Situation of China

III.Situation of China ’ ’ s s

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Air Pollution Air Pollution

z Emission of major air pollutants peaked in 1995.Emission declines since then: SO² by 16%;dust by 33%;industrial TSP by

37%;CO² by 17%.

Trends in CO

Trends in CO

^{2 2}

Emission Density Emission Density

Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit

GDP rise

from middle 1960s to late 1990s, and

then decline obviously.