따라서 향후 비전통 화석에너지에 대한 투자를 하기 위해서는 다음과 같은 점을 고려해야 할 것이다.
– 연방 및 지방정부의 환경규제 동향에 대한 면밀한 정보수집 및 분 석을 통하여 이러한 규제에 따른 사업의 불확실성을 최소화해야 할 것이다.
– 투자를 할 경우 개발 프로젝트 보다는 생산 프로젝트를 우선 고려 해야 할 것이다. 앞으로 비전통 화석에너지의 개발에 대한 환경규제 가 상당히 강화될 것이라는 점을 고려할 때 현재 생산 중에 있는 프로젝트에 대한 지분참여가 리스크를 최소화 할 수 있는 방법이 될 것이다.
– 미국의 오일 셰일의 개발에 직접투자를 고려할 경우 미국내 오일 셰일 부존지역이 집중되어 있는 콜로라도주, 유타주, 와이오밍주의 해당 토지의 소유권에 대한 검토도 필수적이다.83) 실제 이들 3개 주 의 오일 셰일 부존지역의 대부분은 연방정부가 소유권을 갖고 있다.
따라서 미국의 오일 셰일 개발 프로젝트에 투자를 할 경우 연방정 부의 관련 정책에 대한 면밀한 검토가 선행되어야 할 것이다.
83) 이 3개 주의 오일 셰일 매장량의 80%을 연방정부가 소유하고 있다. “Potential Development of United States Oil Shale Reources", March 2007, INTEK, Inc.
참고문헌
World Energy Council, Survey of Energy Resources, 2010.
A., Potter, Chan H., and Wilson S. "http://thefriendsvillegroup. org/
UBS_shaleplays.pdf." UBS. September 3rd, 2008. and http://
thefriendsville group.org/UBS_shaleplays.pdf (accessed 2011).
Bailey, Alan. "http://www.energybulletin.net/node/3824." Petroleum News.
January 2005. http://www.energybulletin. net/node/3824 (accessed 2011).
Curtis, J.B. Fracturedshalegassystems. AAPGBulletin, v.86, no.11, 2002.
Dussault, M.B. "Comparing Venezeulan and Canadian heavy oil and tar sands: Petroleum Society's Canadian International Conference 2001, paper 2001-061." Alberta,Canada, 2001.
"Energy Information Administration." www.eia.doe.gov.2010.
"Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil, natural gas,and natural gas liquids reserves-2008 annual report." www.eia.doe.gov.2009.
"Energy Resources Conservation Board." http://www.ercb.ca/docs/products/
STs/st98_current.pdf. EnergyResources ConservationBoard.June2010.
http://www.ercb.ca/docs/products/STs/st98_current.pdf(accessed2011).
"Energy Resources Conservation Board of Alberta, 2009a." www.eub.gov.ab.ca.
June 2009
Canadian Association of petroleum Producers, Environmental Challenges and Progress in Canada's oill Sands. 2009
Frantz, J.H.,J.R. Williamson,W.K. Sawyer,D.Johnston, G.Waters, L.P. Moore, R.J. MacDonald, M.Pearcy, S.V.Ganpule, and K.S., Evaluating Barnett
Shale production performance using an integrated approach. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Paper SPE 96917, 2005.
Frantz, J.H..Jr., N.R. Fairchild,Jr., H.J.Dube,S.M. Campbell, G.E. Christiansen, and A.J. Olszewski. Evaluating Reservoir Production Mechanisms and hydraulic fracture geometry in the Lewisshale: San Juan basin. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Paper SPE56552, 1999.
G., Fiorillo. Exploration and evaluation of the Orinoco Oil Belt, in Meyer,R.F., ed., Exploration for heavy crude oil and natural bitumen.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists Studies in Geology 25, 1987.
"Government of Alberta, Canada." www.oilsands.alberta.ca.
"Government of Alberta, Canada." www.oilsands.alberta.ca.
Hill D.G., and C.R. Nelson. Gas Productive fractured shales- An overveew and update: gas TIPS v.6, no.2. Gas Reseach Institute, 2000.
"http://geology.com/usgs/alaska-gas-hydrates.shtml." United States Geological Survey. October 2008.
"http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3028/pdf/FS09-3028.pdf." www.usgs.gov.
October 2009.
"http://warlickenergy.com/oil-gas-articles/gas-shale-and-cbm-development-in-north-a merica/." Warlick International. September 27, 2009. http://www.cabotog.com/.
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation. http://www.cabotog.com/
http://www.chk.com. Chesapeake Energy. 2008. http://www.chk.com
"http://www.epa.gov/ogwdw/uic/pdfs/cbmstudy_attach_uic_ch05_basins.pdf ." United States Environmental Protection Agency. June 2004.
http://www.epa.gov/ogwdw/uic/pdfs/cbmstudy_attach_uic_ch05_basins.pdf http://www.natfuel.com/. National Fuel Gas Company.
http://www.natfuel.com/
http://www.talisman-energy.com/. Talisman Energy
Petrel Robertson Consulting. "Assessment of Canada's Natural Gas Resources Base.", 2010.
McColl D., Mei M., Millinton D., Kumar C. Green Bitumen: The role of Nucleur, Gasification, and CCS in Alberta's OilSands.
CanadianEnergyResearchInstitute,2008.
Montgomery, S.L.,D.M. Jarvie,K.A.Bowker, and R.M. Pollastro. Mississppian Barnett Shale, Fort Worth basin, northcentral Texas-Gas-shale play with multi-tcf potential. AAPG Bulletin, v.89, 2005.
"Oil & Gas Journal." http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/
2273210110/s-srticle/ s-oil-gas-journal/s-transportation/s-articles/s-curtail- ment-crimp.html. August 2009
"Oil & Gas Journal." www.oj.com. Oil & Gas Journal. 2009.
http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/2273210110/s-articles/s-oil-gas- journal/s-transportation/s-articles/s-curtailments-crimp.html.
Overview: Water Use in Canada's Oil sands. Online report, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, 2010, 2.
Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the United States-2008. Golden: Potential Gas Agency, Colorado School of Mines.
"Powell Barnett Shale Newsletter, Summary of Barnett Shale producer research to January 1,2009." 2009.
R.D. Hyndman, S.R. Dallimore. http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/gashydrates /canada/
index_e.php. 2001.
Rick Hornby, David White Phd, Paul Peterson. "www.synapse -energy.com."
http://www.mass.gov/Cago/docs/Community /synapse_
report_aug08_naturalgasprices.pdf. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.
August2008.
Sheikh, Pervaze A. DrilllingintheGreatLakes,CRSreportRL34741.CRS.
Summary of Shale Gas Activity in NorthEast British Columbia. Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, 2008/09.
Survey of Energy Sources:Focus on Shale Gas. World Energy Council, 2010.
"U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and National Energy Technology Laboratory." http://www.netl.doe.gov/ technologies/oil-gas /publications/epreports/shale_gas_primer_2009.pdf. Ground Water Protection Council, and ALL Consulting. April 2009.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/publications/epreports/shale_g as_primer_2009.pdf
Unconventional Gas Shales: Development, Technology and Policy Issues, pg.
33. Congressional Research Service, 2009.
Unconventional Gas Shales:Development, Technology, and Policy Issues, pg.
8. Congressional Research Service, 2009.
www.devonenergy.com. 2010. www.devonenergy.com (accessed 2011).
Haines, Leslie, ed. "www.oilandgasinvestor.com." http://www.sitter drilling.com /publications/TightGas.pdf. Oil and Gas Investor. March 2006.
www.petrohawk.com. Petrohawk Energy Corporation.
www.qrinc.com. Quicksilver Resources.
www.swn.com. Southwestern Energy.
"www.usgs.gov." United Staes Geological Survey. March 2009.
"www.usgs.gov." March 2009.
[부 록]
Unconventional Hydrocarbons in North America
Report submitted by
The Conference Board of Canada
May 2011
Contents
Executive Summary ········································································································· 88 Introduction ······················································································································ 92
Chapter 1: Profile of the Potential Resource ································································ 96 Introduction ······················································································································ 96 Shale gas ·························································································································· 96 Resource Base ················································································································· 97 Main basins ······················································································································ 99 Gas Hydrates ·················································································································· 101 Background ····················································································································· 101 Assessment ····················································································································· 104 Coal-bed Methane ·········································································································· 105 Background ····················································································································· 105 Main Basins ···················································································································· 106 Tight Gas ······················································································································· 108 Main Basin ······················································································································ 108 Oil Shale ························································································································· 108 Assessment of in-place oil shale resources of Green River Formation, Piceance Basin ·· 110 Extra‐Heavy Oil ·············································································································· 110 Resource Assessment ····································································································· 111 Bitumen ·························································································································· 111 Chapter 2: Current and Potential Future Development ·············································· 113 Introduction: ··················································································································· 113 Oil sands (Alberta) ········································································································· 113 Production ······················································································································ 113 Issues and Constraints ··································································································· 115 Extra‐Heavy Oil ·············································································································· 118 Shale Gas ······················································································································· 119 Producing Shale-Gas Plays ···························································································· 120
Canadian Shale ··············································································································· 123 Shale Gas constraints ···································································································· 127 Coal bed Methane ·········································································································· 132 Powder River Basin ······································································································· 132 San Juan Basin ··············································································································· 133 Canadian Basins ············································································································· 133 Chapter 3: Key Trends in Exploitation Technologies ·················································· 135 Introduction ···················································································································· 135 In Situ Oil Sands ············································································································ 135 Primary Recovery ·········································································································· 135 Thermal Recovery ········································································································· 136 Hybrid Thermal /Solvent Recovery Processes ······························································ 138 Directional Drilling and Hydraulic fracturing ······························································· 138 Directional Drilling ········································································································· 139 Well Construction and Casing ······················································································· 140 Hydraulic Fracturing ······································································································ 141 Chapter 4: Market and Investment Trends ·································································· 143 Shale Gas and Coalbed Methane ·················································································· 143 Canadian Unconventional Natural Gas ········································································· 143 U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas ·················································································· 145 Oil Sands ························································································································ 152 Foreign Investment ········································································································ 155 Chapter 5: Key Findings ······························································································· 156 Shale Gas ······················································································································· 156 Tight Gas ······················································································································· 157 Coal Bed Methane ········································································································· 158 Gas Hydrates ·················································································································· 158 Bitumen ·························································································································· 158
Executive Summary
This report presents an overview of resource potential, technology, markets and investment trends of unconventional oil and gas in North America. Recent price volatility has attributed to growing interest towards the unconventional hydrocarbons. The Canadian oil sands have faced a production boom due to advancement in Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage technology. However, oil extraction does have various environmental impacts in the form of greenhouse emissions, and the creation of waste water tailings. These constraints will likely influence investment decisions. Unconventional gas, in turn, has had a lot of development due to technological advancements in horizontal drilling and fracturing.
Chapter 1 provides a basic description of each of the resources, and includes details on resources’ geographic location, and some data on resources and reserves estimates. It begins with a portrayal of shale gas, and states that while it is globally abundant, most of would not be recoverable as its extraction is still an expensive process.
However, its main advantages lie in the fact that they are a cleaner source energy source, and that they can provide increased security of supply for gas importing nations. Subsequently, this section provides data for resource plays in the North Central, Atlantic, Gulf Coast, Mid‐Continent and the Rocky Mountain Areas. The data is divided into different categories of probable, possible and speculative.
The section concludes with an outline of the main basins that are at the production stage in the US and Canada, including Lewis, Barnett, Fayetteville and the Montney shales.
As far as other unconventional gas resources are concerned, gas hydrates have immense potential; however, commercial production is
still a far cry away. Resource exploitation of coal bed methane has been constrained to the basins in San Juan, Powder, Black Warrior, and the Canadian basins in Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. For tight gas, the rocky mountain regions have the most potential. Oil shale technology at present is still nascent with respect to economic recovery in today’s prices, with the Green River Formation in the Western United States deemed to have the most potential. The chapter closes with a resource summary of the Canadian Oil Sands, providing data for the in situ and mining recovery methods for the Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River oil sands regions.
For oil sands, in situ production has increased five‐fold due to the advent of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology.
Under this method, the Cold Lake region has witnessed the most production. It represented 48 percent of production in 2009.1) A couple of constraints are noted. The first constraint pertains to the great deal of water that is used by the oil sands‐ recent estimates suggest that 171 million cubic meters of fresh water is used by oil sands annually.2) This issue is bound to grow in the future with production increases. Tailings, a by‐product of bitumen extraction, are another source of concern as it can take a long time for the sediments to settle to the bottom of the tailings ponds. Some new technological advancement by companies is noted, and a directive issued by Alberta’s Energy Conservation Board is also mentioned.
The next issue involves land impacts by mining and in situ techniques, and some of the government initiatives that are being taken towards reclamation.
For shale gas, data is provided on wells drilled, IP rates and
1) http://www.ercb.ca/docs/products/STs/st98_current.pdf 2) Source:CAPP
production. Production for the main plays‐Barnett and Fayetteville being the main ones in the US is outlined. It also provides information for the production of Canadian basins of Horn River Basin and Montney play trend. Various production constraints are present. Hydraulic fracturing for the extraction of shale gas is a water‐intensive process, and issues arise related to treatment of flowback water, and aquifer and groundwater contamination. Issues related to split estates that occur when the mineral and surface rights are not owned by the same party also occur. Price differentials in the form of basis also take place primarily due to processing/ pipeline infrastructure constraints.
A non‐technical overview of the various technologies used for in situ extraction of the oil sands, as well as hydraulic fracturing for shale gas is discussed. Specifically, under in situ, primary recovery, thermal recovery, solvent‐based recovery processes, and hybrid thermal/solvent processes are outlined. Hydraulic fracturing, in turn, has been particularly advantageous for shale gas extraction.
Specifically, directional drilling has led to wells extending almost horizontally, increasing the well’s contact with the reservoir.
Production costs of this process have varied from US $4‐8/Mcf.
They can depend on well productivity with the more productive wells having lower operating costs. Moreover, costs for water reclamation and chemical cleanup can increase prices to US$6‐8/Mcf.
Amongst all the resources mentioned, solely shale gas, coalbed methane and bitumen are likely to have significant market opportunities; gas hydrates technology is still relatively nascent. In Canada, the Horn River and Montney tight and shale gas are the primary areas for development. Additionally, shale gas production in the Horn River basin will have access to Spectra Energy’s Fort Nelson gas processing plant. The main advantage here being that
the plant connects to the trunk line that carries gas to the Kitimat region, providing access to a proposed LNG liquefaction and export terminal. In the US, shale gas development will depend on four factors, as reported by the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America: natural Gas prices, access to pipeline infrastructure, market growth and environmental constraints. Since the North American Natural gas industry is independent, process rely on striking a balance between production and demand. The recent surges in shale gas production have led pressures for price reduction, leading to difficult investment decisions.
The Canadian oil sands witnessed a lot of expansion in the 1990s and early 2000s due to development of in situ technologies. During the 2008 recession, many projects were delayed or withdrawn. In order to continue, these projects will depend on technological advancements (while decreasing operating costs), the ability to finance and access to upgrader capacity and pipelines. In recent trends, there has been a lot of interest shown for foreign investments in the oil sands. The reasons suggested for this development have been attributed to access to incremental oil production and future price volatility hedge.
Introduction
In 2004, crude oil and natural gas prices began to rise rapidly, peaking in 2008. After a brief pause, and with recent unrest in the Middle East, crude oil prices are rising again. When prices rise, and are volatile, interest in new supply sources also increases. The price strength of the mid 2000s reinforced a trend toward unconventional hydrocarbons that was already underway, drawing investor attention from around the world.
The interest in unconventional crude oil dates back to the price shocks of the 1970s, driven by OPEC’s emergence and dominance of world oil supply. This initial surge included discovery of oil in the North Sea, and drove interest in heavy and extra‐heavy crude in Venezuela’s Orinoco belt and Canada’s oil sands. More recently, with the North Sea in decline, and the Orinoco remaining under very close control, Canada’s oil sands have experienced a significant development boom, and have attracted investment from both Europe and Asia. A significant breakthrough in exploitation technology (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, or SAGD) made it possible to exploit bitumen resources that are too deep for the mining technologies of the past. Because of the water requirements and input energy costs for SAGD, ongoing research has found other extraction methods using chemical injectants along with steam.
Underground combustion has also been tested as means of extracting and partially upgrading the bitumen.
Because bitumen is too viscous to move through a pipeline without a diluent, specialized refineries known as upgraders have been developed in order to upgrade the resource prior to export. These refineries produce synthetic crude which can be charged to a
conventional refinery. Upgraders represent a significant need for capital, and hence an investment opportunity.
The oil sands face public concerns regarding their impact on the environment. Mining projects create a large and visible scar on the landscape, requiring long term efforts to reclaim the land and restore it as nearly as possible to its pre‐mine condition. These projects also create large volumes of waste water tailings, even though more than 80 per cent of the water used is recycled. These tailings are left in man‐made lakes for decades as the fine clay, heavy metals, and other contaminants settle out. In situ oil sands projects also require large quantities of water, much of which is taken from surface sources. Both mines and in situ methods emit large quantities of greenhouse gases from the fossil fuels that are used as input energy – in situ projects being both more energy intensive and more emissions intensive. These environmental impacts are attracting increasing attention and resulting in broad information and mis‐
information campaigns that are influencing both consumer decisions and policy decisions.
Conventional natural gas resources in North America (excluding Mexico) have been exploited for decades, with an extensive network of pipelines to deliver the product to markets. The overall market for natural gas peaked in the mid‐1970s as a result of strong growth in industrial and power generation markets. This growth created a shortage of natural gas that led to price regulation and a prohibition on further use of natural gas for power generation (which was subsequently ended about 1990). As the size of incremental discoveries continued to decline, the cost of finding, developing, and producing natural gas increased steadily through the 1990s.This resulted in a situation where, by 2000, the cost of importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) was competitive with marginal supply
costs for domestic natural gas sources. This spurred investment in numerous LNG import terminals and pipeline linkages from the terminals to major transportation hubs.
Two technologies contributed significantly to the recent boom in unconventional natural gas in North America. Horizontal drilling in conventional natural gas production made it possible to achieve much higher production levels from pay zones with large areal extent, but only limited vertical thickness. Horizontal drilling, once developed, progressed further in terms of control over the drilling process to extend the horizontal section farther while remaining within even thinner pay zones.
Fracturing makes it possible to increase the flow rate of natural gas through the reservoir to the well. This technology was particularly important in developing coalbed methane and increasing production levels, particularly in the San Juan basin of the U.S.
Advancing horizontal drilling and fracturing technologies have enabled the recent boom in shale gas development. Shale gas has been known to exist for several decades. However, assessments made prior to the 1990s always treated this resource as a long term opportunity that would await development of an appropriate technology. That opportunity is now being realized, returning North America toward the excess supply position of the 1970s and 1980s.
There are additional natural gas resources that are currently considered unconventional. Coalbed methane experienced a significant surge in the 1980s in the U.S., primarily as a result of tax credits.
Canadian coalbed methane did not receive the same level of fiscal stimulus and was not extensively developed. With the advent of shale gas exploitation technologies, coalbed methane appears to have become a lesser focus, primarily in selected regions. Gas hydrates