다음으로 본 연구의 결과를 요약하여 간략하게 제시한다. a) 해협과 한국해역의 충돌 확률을 비교했을 때 이스탄불에서의 위험도는 거의 두 배에 달하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 우리는 이스탄불 해협 남쪽 입구 인근 해역의 해상 교통 안전을 향상시키기 위해 현지 해상 교통에 대한 통항 분리 계획의 도입을 강력히 권고하지 않을 수 없습니다. f) 무엇보다도, , 부동산 시뮬레이션 연구, 단방향 교통 계획도 마찬가지입니다. 이는 연구지역 선원들의 스트레스를 줄이는 데 매우 효과적인 방법인 것으로 나타났으며, 이 결과는 전문가 인터뷰 조사 결과와 일치한다.
Scope of Research
Serious increases have been observed in the transportation of dangerous goods through the Istanbul Strait. Recently, the density of maritime traffic has increased and consequently the risks of navigation are greater than before in the Istanbul Strait.
Literature Review
Atasoy (2008) determines local traffic intensity and some risk-related parameters in Istanbul Strait. Yazici and Otay (2009) developed a real-time maritime traffic support model for safe navigation in the Istanbul Strait.
Research Review
The ultimate goal of this thesis is to improve navigational safety in the Straits of Istanbul. Chapter 5 recommends LTSS and one-way traffic implementations to improve shipping traffic safety in the Istanbul Strait.
Research Layout
General Introduction of the Straits of Istanbul and the Dangers The region known as the Turkish Straits, including.
General Introduction of the Istanbul Strait and Dangers
Recent years have seen a serious increase in the transportation of dangerous cargo through the Istanbul Strait. This can be illustrated by the catastrophic accidents of the Independent and Nassia that occurred in the Istanbul Strait in November 1979.
Natural structure
Current
In the Strait of Istanbul, there are four different types of currents caused by water level and density differences between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, namely surface and undercurrent currents. Under normal conditions, the speed of the current from the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara varies between 0.4 knots and 4.8 knots at different points in the Strait of Istanbul.
Visibility
Marine Traffic Environment in the Research area
The speed of the countercurrent near the southwestern coast of Ortakoy exceeds 0.5 knots (Ece, 2008). It mixes with the main current that turns eastward to the south of Akinti Cape.
Marine Traffic in the Research area
Transit Ships vs Stop‐over Ships
A significant increase has been observed in the number of transit ships in recent years. Figure 2.10 shows the most important flag states whose ships pass through the Straits of Istanbul.
Density of Local Marine Traffic
Another major company that transports passengers in the Istanbul Strait is the Istanbul Sea Buses Corporation (IDO). These cooperatives, Dentur Avrasya and Turyol, operate registered vessels in various locations in the strait.
Marine Traffic Management
Examination of Vessel Traffic Services (VTS)
The information service is provided by broadcasting information at fixed times and intervals or when deemed necessary by the VTS or at the request of a ship and may include, for example, reports on the position, identity and intentions of other traffic, condition of the waterway, the weather, dangers or other factors that may influence the passage of the ship. This service is normally provided at the request of a ship or by the VTS when deemed necessary.
The Istanbul Strait Vessel Traffic Service
Maritime traffic in the TSVTS area is monitored using radar, ENC, AIS, CCTV and VHF equipment such as VHF R/T, DSC and DF. ⑥Ensure compliance with international and national maritime traffic rules and legislation in the strait. ⑫ Ensure a communications system in a form that enables Coast Guard Commands to carry out their own missions.
⑬ Monitor and support vessel traffic in the strait with great care under all environmental conditions, day and night.
Marine Traffic Risk in the Istanbul Strait
Analysis of Marine Traffic Statistics
- Survey of previous studies and statistics
- Method
- Results and Discussion
Finally, the weekly, monthly and annual amounts of vessel movement were calculated in the research area. Thus, the main traffic flows of local traffic vessels plying in the research area are determined as given in Table 3.1. Furthermore, the local vessels operating in the search area are mostly old vessels with reduced maneuverability.
After calculating the probability of collision for each main local traffic flow line, the probability of near misses for each OD in the research area was calculated using Heinrich's principle.
Analysis of Risk Perception by Expert Survey
- Design of Questionnaire Survey
- Method
- Results and Discussion
The results showed that tankers are the most dangerous of the ship types with an average of 4.4 points on a five-point Likert scale (60.3% of participants agreed with the highest level of risk and 22.7% gave a high level of risk) and with respect to the background crew averaged 3.68 points on a five-point Likert scale (31.2% of participants agreed with the highest level of risk and 31.2% gave a high level of risk). Passenger ships are defined as the least dangerous among ship types with an average of 2.2 points on a five-point Likert scale (34.8% of participants agreed with the lowest level of risk and 30.5% gave a low level of risk) and according to the background of the crew with an average of 2.04 points on a five-point Likert scale (39% of participants agreed with the lowest level of risk and 29.8% indicated a low level of risk). Crossing/meeting situations of transit and transit vessels were identified as the most risky/very dangerous situations in the research area with an average value of 3.80 points on a five-point Likert scale (34.8% of participants agreed with the highest level of risk and 26.2% given a high level of risk), then transit-local traffic with an average of 3.40 points on a five-point Likert scale (19.9% of participants agreed with the highest level of risk and 34.8% indicated a high level of risk) and local - local transport vessel with an average of 3.80 points on a five-point Likert scale (10.6% of participants agreed with the highest level of risk, 24.8% indicated a high level of risk and 27.0% indicated a moderate level of risk), such as shown in Table 3.10 and Figure 3.13.
Limited visibility is determined as an extremely effective parameter with an average of 4.33 points on a Five Likert scale (65.2% of participants agreed on the extremely effective parameter), followed by fishing vessels and yachts (average 3.75 points, 34.8% of participants agreed with the extremely effective and 25.5% of which indicated very effective), flow (average 3.80 points, 24.8% of participants agreed with the extremely effective and 29.8% of them indicated very effective) and local traffic and tour boats (average 3.23 points, 15.6% of participants agreed with the extremely effective and 37.6% of them indicated very effective parameters as very effective parameters for safe navigation.
Analysis of Environmental Stress (ES) by Real Time
- Design of Simulation Scenarios
- Methodology
- Results and Discussion
Furthermore, the results of the simulation studies were analyzed using the Environmental Stress Model (Inoue, 2000) which provides an opportunity to analyze the navigator's stress level due to transportation with quantitative difficulties. This model also clarifies the stress value acceptance criteria based on a seaman; the perception of safety. The stress becomes especially great when there is limited TTC, regardless of the ship's direction.
Based on the results, the most risky area for maritime traffic in the southern entrance of the Istanbul Strait is between 2,500 and 3,500 meters from the starting point of the simulation scenario.
Investigation of Potential Countermeasures to Improve
Background
Methodology: Latent‐ES
It is important for ship traffic safety to measure how the ship operating system is affected, consisting of ship navigator. Since this paper applies fast time simulation of maritime traffic, the Latent ES concept (L-ES value) (Inoue, 1999) is used. The ES value is an index between 0 and 1,000 and is classified on four major rankings: negligible, marginal, critical and catastrophic.
L-ES value is calculated for two main components: terrestrial objects as land (L- . ES_L) and navigating objects as ships (L-ES_S).
State of Present Marine Traffic in the Research Area
The generating points of ships are assumed to be normally distributed on a port line perpendicular to the designed standard route, and ships are designed to navigate along the standard route as indicated in previous empirical work. Due to the high encounter rates in Sector A2, the occurrence of unacceptable stress levels does not significantly decrease during off-peak hours. This result implies that a decrease in traffic density does not lead to a decrease in stress level in the defined area.
When results are checked, it is observed that stress is mainly caused by L-ES_S marine traffic in the research area, percentage of unacceptable stress is so high in Sector A2 and A3 but reasonable in Sector A1 (Figure 4.4).
Recommended Local Marine Traffic Routes
Change of Vessel Size
Change of Traffic Flow
- Change of Number of Transit Ship
- Change of Number of Local Traffic Frequency
The stress level increases linearly with the increase in the number of transit vessels and it is clear that the study area is a dangerous waterway and the increasing number of transit vessels increases the potential risks. However, this section considers postponing the departure of local traffic vessels during peak hours to reduce the number of vessels. To simulate target cases, the number of local traffic vessels is reduced by 17%, 33% and 50%.
Results are shown that the incidence of unacceptable risk decreases to and 19.1% respectively in case of delay of local traffic during rush hours 10 minutes (17% . reduction of local traffic), 20 minutes (33% reduction of local traffic) and 30 minutes (50 ) % reduction of local traffic).
Improvements by Control of Traffic Direction
Results show that one-way traffic implementation is highly effective in reducing loads in the research area, which is consistent with the result of expert survey. The results also show that in the case of only NB traffic, more ship handling difficulties occur in Sector A2 when compared to the only SB traffic situation. The opposite happens in Sector A3, and more ship handling problems only occur in the case of SB traffic.
Moreover, results show that one-way traffic implementation contributes significantly to the improvement of navigation safety in sector A2 and sector A3.
Improvements by Use of Traffic Separation Scheme for
Figure 4.13 provides a sample graphic showing catastrophic load in red, critical load in red, marginal load in yellow and negligible load in green. The results presented in Figure 4.20 and Figure 4.21 show that the unacceptable stress level increases to 29.7% in the case of the proposed local TSS 1 in the entire study area, despite the unacceptable reduction of the stress level to 35.7% in sector A2 and 4.6 % in sector A1. The location of the intended circle in the A3 sector, where the unacceptable voltage level increases to 40.2%, causes a tight passage between the vessel and also to the Maiden's Tower (marked by a buoy on the map).
However, the proposed LTSS 1 is the most effective in improving maritime traffic safety in sector A1 compared to other proposals.
Results and Discussion
It is thus aimed at demonstrating changes in environmental impact in the research area by changing the number of transit ships. In the proposed LTSSs, it is considered that local traffic vessels must comply "as nearly as practicable at right angles to the general direction of traffic flow". Results of studies of fast time simulation of ship traffic show that LTSS contributes to improving ship traffic safety in the research area.
Therefore, according to the above results, the implementation of a local traffic separation scheme is highly recommended for the improvement of maritime traffic safety in the southern entrance of the Istanbul Strait.
Conclusion and Recommendation
At the end of the thesis, some local traffic separation schemes are proposed to promote navigation safety in the Strait of Istanbul. Harbor Master Local Marine Traffic Guideline (RLMTR) promotes navigational safety in the total research area. Therefore, according to the aforementioned results, the implementation of local traffic separation scheme is strongly recommended for the improvement of marine traffic safety in the southern entrance of the Strait of Istanbul.
In summary, the southern entrance of the Straits of Istanbul is a very risky waterway and local shipping traffic is the main reason.
