Final energy demand in 2012 is forecast to rise 0.6%, according to the new energy conversion factor.8)
Consumption is forecast to rise at a slower rate as a result of the slowdown in economic growth and continued high oil prices.
Notes: The figures in parentheses are the year-on-year growth rates (%); p indicates that the figures are preliminary;
e indicates that the figures are forecasts.
17 http://www.keei.re.kr
3. Outlook on final energy demand
Category 2011p 2012e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual First half
of year Second half
of year Annual
30.0 29.3 30.3 31.8 121.5 60.3 62.4 122.7
(3.4) (2.6) (9.3) (6.6) (5.5) (1.7) (0.4) (1.0)
14.3 14.0 14.3 15.5 58.0 28.7 29.8 58.5
(6.0) (2.3) (9.3) (5.9) (5.8) (1.6) (0.1) (0.8)
8.8 8.7 9.8 9.5 36.8 17.5 19.2 36.6
(2.4) (-5.8) (2.6) (-1.1) (-0.5) (-0.4) (-0.4) (-0.4)
15.3 8.4 7.2 11.0 41.9 23.5 18.6 42.1
(5.1) (-2.5) (2.2) (-4.2) (0.5) (-0.8) (2.2) (0.5)
54.1 46.4 47.3 52.3 200.2 101.2 100.2 201.4
(3.8) (0.0) (6.7) (2.7) (3.3) (0.7) (0.6) (0.6)
38.4 31.1 31.2 36.0 136.7 69.7 67.6 137.3
(4.8) (-1.4) (5.4) (0.8) (2.4) (0.3) (0.6) (0.4)
8.1 4.5 3.0 5.6 21.2 12.8 9.1 21.9
(6.2) (5.5) (14.8) (2.7) (6.2) (1.6) (5.1) (3.1)
196.4 179.8 197.5 205.3 778.9 382.7 403.0 785.7
(4.1) (-4.3) (5.8) (0.5) (1.5) (1.7) (0.1) (0.9)
107.7 95.9 106.8 113.3 423.7 201.6 214.4 416.0
(0.1) (-9.2) (3.1) (-4.6) (-2.7) (-1.0) (-2.6) (-1.8)
121.4 109.0 112.5 112.2 455.1 237.9 235.9 473.8
(7.9) (5.1) (3.2) (3.0) (4.8) (3.3) (5.0) (4.1)
10.6 10.7 10.7 11.8 43.9 22.1 23.2 45.4
(-5.5) (3.0) (13.0) (10.6) (4.9) (3.8) (3.1) (3.4)
4.4 4.2 4.3 5.2 18.2 8.8 9.6 18.4
(12.5) (-0.1) (17.9) (15.7) (11.4) (2.3) (0.7) (1.5)
2,202 1,612 1,417 2,121 7,351 3,973 3,808 7,781
(4.2) (3.6) (0.6) (6.9) (4.1) (4.6) (7.2) (5.9)
<Table 6> Outlook for final energy demand
Industry (Million toe) -Excluding for raw materials Transport (Million toe) Residential /commercial
/public (Million toe)
Total (Million toe)
Total -Excluding for raw materials Town gas (Billion m3)
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding naphtha Electricity (TWh) (Million ton)Coal --Excluding coking coal Thermal and
other (Thousand toe)
Outlook on final energy demand
3
수요전망14-1 영문 2012.5.25 5:2 PM 페이지17 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 600DPI 125LPI T
Energy demand in the industrial sector is expected to rise at a slower rate as a result of a slower rise in demand for naphtha and electricity, which lead overall demand.
Residential, commercial, and public sector's demand is expected to rise only slightly.
- Energy demand in the industrial sector is expected to rise steadily, especially for major energy sources such as electricity, energy for raw material use, and town gas.
Energy demand in the transport sector and the residential/commercial/public sector is expected to change little from last year due to the economic slowdown and continued high oil prices, unless unusual weather occurs.
With regards to final energy demand by source, the level of increase in demand for each major energy source in 2012 will likely be about the same as in 2011 or decline slightly.
Town gas for industrial use is forecast to lead an overall rise in demand. Demand is forecast to rise 3.1%.
- Demand in the residential/commercial/public sector is forecast to rise slightly.
Oil demand is forecast to rise less than 1% owing to the high oil prices and the economic slowdown.
- Oil demand is forecast to continue a downward trend when excluding naphtha, a raw material for industrial use.
- Oil demand for transport is expected to be about the same as last year.
Electricity demand will likely rise at a relatively high rate of 4.1% for several reasons: a rise in industrial production, low charges, and use of more electric-powered equipments.
- Electricity demand for industrial use is expected to rise at a slower rate in 2012, but will likely continue to lead the rise in overall electricity demand.
- Electricity demand for residential/commercial use is expected to rise slightly owing to base effects from sluggish consumption in the summer of 2011.
Coal consumption is forecast to rise about 3.5% as a result of a rise in demand for anthracite for industrial use and coking coal for steel making.
18 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE
KEEIKorea Energy Demand Outlook
8) When the previous energy conversion factor is applied, the final energy demand increase rate is 2.2% year- on-year (It is 1.3% when raw material use is excluded).
수요전망14-1 영문 2012.5.25 5:2 PM 페이지18 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 600DPI 125LPI T
