“The Idea of Gas OPEC and Cooperation among
Energy Supplying States.”
Dr. Vladimir Likhachev
Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
2007 KAIS-KEEI International Conference Seoul, South Korea
November 16-17, 2007
World and Russian Gas Reserves
Region
Volume, billion m3
Russia 47 ,811
incl. Gazprom 28 ,006
North America 7, 526
South America 7 ,349
Europe 7 ,834
Africa 13, 849
Middle East 71, 611
Asia and the Pacific 24, 656
World and Russian Gas Production
Region
Extracted volume, billion m3
Russia 616.50
incl. Gazprom 540.20
North America 757.83
South America 119.02
Europe 334.57
Africa 143.64
Middle East 260.64
Asia and the Pacific 453.10
Total: 2,685.30
World Gas Trade
Share of LNG Trade in
International Gas Trade
World Gas Demand Forecast
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BCM
Latin America
Africa
India
Other Asia
China
Japan and Korea
Australia and N.Z.
Middle East
E.Europe and CIS
Western Europe
North America
Key obstacles
The overall distribution of world natural gas reserves is more concentrated than the
distribution of oil resources in the sense that the countries with the largest gas reserves have a
larger share of world reserves than is the case for oil.
Over the long term, gas exports may eventually become concentrated in the hands of just a few major producers.
As world LNG markets become more liquid, it will be feasible for the emergence of a “swing
producer”
Forms of “Gas OPEC” idea
1.
Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)
2.
CIS gas producers alliance
3.
EvrAzES Gas Alliance
4.
MANNGO
Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)
The main problem is adjustment of cooperation between members
Long-term contractual system
Confrontation with consuming countries
RESULT – price mechanisms
discussion
CIS gas producers alliance
& EvrAzES Gas Alliance
Gas Export Revenues Dynamics by Export Decrease
Экспортная выручка (млн. долл.)
54000 56000 58000 60000 62000 64000 66000
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Gas price dependence on CIS gas export limitation
110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
$ Москва Берлин Париж Пекин Токио
