/,)(&<&/(&267&203$5,621%(7:((1 3(5)250$1&(%$6('$1'75$',7,21$/
&2175$&76)2552$'6,1,1'21(6,$
%(77<686$17,5(,1,':,5$+$',.8680$+%,(02:62(0$5', 0(,6875,612
1Dept. of Civil Engineering, Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia.
2Dept. of Civil Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia.
3Dept. of Civil Engineering, Politeknik Negeri Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia.
*Corresponding author: [email protected]
(Received: 2nd February 2019; Accepted: 30th July 2019; Published on-line:2nd December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
DOVR SURYHG WKDW WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI 3%& FDQ JXDUDQWHH WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI URDG VHUYLFHVGXULQJPXOWL\HDUFRQWUDFWVDQGDOVRSURYLGHRWKHUEHQHILWVIRUWKHURDGDJHQF\
DQGURDGXVHUV
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
EHUEDQGLQJGHQJDQNRQWUDNWUDGLVLRQDO.DMLDQLQLMXJDPHPEXNWLNDQEDKDZDSHODNVDQDDQ 3%&GDSDW PHQMDPLQ SUHVWDVL SHUNKLGPDWDQMDODQVHODPD NRQWUDN PXOWLWDKXQ GDQMXJD PHPEHULNDQPDQIDDWODLQXQWXNDJHQVLMDODQGDQSHQJJXQDMDODQUD\D
KEYWORDS: life-cycle cost; maintenance; performance-based contract; road;
traditional contract
,1752'8&7,21
1DWLRQDOURDGPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFWVLQ,QGRQHVLDDUHJHQHUDOO\GHOLYHUHGXVLQJLQKRXVH V\VWHPVDQGLQSXWEDVHGFRQWUDFWVZLWKD'HVLJQ%LG%XLOG'%%PHWKRG$QLQKRXVH V\VWHPLVDQDSSURDFKRIVHOIPDQDJHGURXWLQHPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQE\D
URDGDJHQF\7KLVV\VWHPLVRQO\DSSOLHGIRUPDLQWHQDQFHRIURDGVLQJRRGFRQGLWLRQ,QWKH LQKRXVHV\VWHPWKHURDGDJHQF\SOD\VLWVUROHGLUHFWO\LQWKHSURFHVVRILPSOHPHQWLQJWKH SK\VLFDOZRUNVRIPDLQWHQDQFHDQGSURMHFWVXSHUYLVLRQ0HDQZKLOHWKH'%%SDWWHUQLVDQ DSSURDFKIRULPSOHPHQWLQJWKHPDLQWHQDQFHRIURDGWKDWLVFRQWUDFWHGWRWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ VHUYLFHSURYLGHU.7KLVSDWWHUQLVDSSOLHGRQQRQURXWLQHURDGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVXFKDVURDG LPSURYHPHQWZRUNVSHULRGLFPDLQWHQDQFHDQGURDGUHKDELOLWDWLRQ%RWKLQKRXVHDQG'%%
V\VWHPVDUHJHQHUDOO\GHQRWHGDVSDUWRIWKHWUDGLWLRQDOFRQWUDFWDSSURDFK7KLVWUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFKDSSOLHVDSUHVFULSWLYHRULQSXWEDVHGV\VWHP,WLVSHUIRUPHGLQDVLQJOH\HDUZLWK DVKRUWPDLQWHQDQFHZDUUDQW\SHULRG7KHPHFKDQLVPRIURDGPDLQWHQDQFHDOZD\VDSSOLHV DFRUUHFWLYHDSSURDFKDQGLWLVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHSDFNDJHVRIWKHFRQWUDFWZLWKDVPDOO YDOXH 0DQ\ VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKDW WKHVH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQWUDFWV JHQHUDWH KLJK FRVWV DQG LQDGHTXDWHURDGTXDOLW\>@
$OWKRXJK WUDGLWLRQDO FRQWUDFWV UHPDLQ WKH PRVW FRPPRQO\ XVHG W\SH RI FRQWUDFW LQ ,QGRQHVLD WKHUH DUH FXUUHQWO\ HIIRUWV EHLQJ PDGH WKDW IRFXV RQ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI QRQ WUDGLWLRQDOFRQWUDFWVWRIXQGDQGSHUIRUPURDGPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFWV7KLVQRQWUDGLWLRQDO FRQWUDFWRUDQDOWHUQDWLYHFRQWUDFWJHQHUDOO\IRFXVHVRQWKHRXWSXWRUWKHRXWFRPHRIWKH SURMHFW ,W LV SHUIRUPHG RQ D PXOWL\HDU EDVLV ZLWK D ORQJ PDLQWHQDQFH ZDUUDQW\ SHULRG
$GGLWLRQDOO\WKHFRQWUDFWLQWHJUDWHVYDULRXVPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVLQWKHPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFW SDFNDJH7KHUHDUHYDULRXVW\SHVRIQRQWUDGLWLRQDOFRQWUDFWIRUURDGPDLQWHQDQFHQDPHO\
'HVLJQ%XLOG H[WHQGHG ZDUUDQW\ FRQWUDFW ODQH UHQWDO FRVW SOXV WLPH DQG SHUIRUPDQFH EDVHGFRQWUDFW6RPHSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVVKRZHGWKDWRQHDOWHUQDWLYHWRWUDGLWLRQDOFRQWUDFWV WKDWFDQRYHUFRPHDSUREOHPUHODWHGWRWKHKLJKDPRXQWRIFRVWDQGWKHORZURDGTXDOLW\LV 3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG&RQWUDFW3%&DVVXJJHVWHGE\>@
3%&LVSHUFHLYHGDVOutput and Performance-based Road Contract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
>@7KRVHDSSURDFKHVKDYHQRWEHHQEDVHGRQWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIORQJWHUP3%&SRWHQWLDO FRVWVDYLQJV7KHDSSURSULDWHDSSURDFKWRGHWHUPLQHFRVWVDYLQJVRI3%&LVWRHYDOXDWHWKH DFWXDO FRVW EHIRUH DQG DIWHU 3%& LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RU E\ PDNLQJ HVWLPDWHV EDVHG RQ URDG GHWHULRUDWLRQDQGOLIHF\FOHFRVWPRGHOV>@
6HYHUDO VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG UHJDUGLQJ WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI 3%& LQ ,QGRQHVLD5HIHUHQFH>@LGHQWLILHGWKDWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIPHWKRGVWRHVWLPDWHWKHFRVW HIILFLHQF\RI3%&LVUHTXLUHGZKLOH>@HPSKDVL]HGWKHQHHGWRGHYHORS3%&TXDQWLWDWLYH HYDOXDWLRQVFKHPHVWRMXVWLI\WKHFODLPVRIHIILFLHQF\DQGHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHXVHRI3%&
LQ QDWLRQDO URDG PDQDJHPHQW LQ ,QGRQHVLD +RZHYHU TXDQWLWDWLYH VWXGLHV DVVHVVLQJ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVVRI3%&LPSOHPHQWDWLRQKDYHQRWEHHQFRQGXFWHG7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVVWXG\
ZDVWRDVVHVVWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKH3%&LPSOHPHQWDWLRQLQURDGPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFWV FRPSDUHG WR WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFK EDVHG RQ D FDVH VWXG\ RI D 3%& SLORW SURMHFW LQ ,QGRQHVLD 7KH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI 3%& ZDV UHYLHZHG LQ WHUPV RI SURMHFW¶V OLIH F\FOH FRVW HIILFLHQF\
&$6(678'<3%&3,/27352-(&7,1,1'21(6,$
7KHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3%&IRUURDGPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFWVLQ,QGRQHVLDVWDUWHGLQ
&XUUHQWO\VL[3%&SLORWSURMHFWVLQ,QGRQHVLDDUHEHLQJFDUULHGRXW7DEOHDOORIZKLFK DUHQDWLRQDOURDGLPSURYHPHQWZRUNV2IWKHVL[SURMHFWVILYHDUHRQURDGVZLWKKLJKWUDIILF YROXPH DQG RYHUORDGV ORFDWHG RQ -DYD ,VODQG ZKHUHDV RQH SURMHFW LV LQ WKH 6HL +DQ\X±
7XPEDQJ/DKXQJVHJPHQWRQ.DOLPDQWDQ,VODQGDURDGZLWKDORZYROXPHRIWUDIILF7KH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI 3%& LV FXUUHQWO\ PRUH DSSOLFDEOH WR QDWLRQDO URDGV RQ -DYD ,VODQG EHFDXVH RI WKH UHDGLQHVV RI URDG DJHQFLHV DQG DYDLODELOLW\ RI DGHTXDWH KLVWRULFDO GDWD WR VXSSRUW3%&LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
7DEOH3%&SLORWSURMHFWVLQ,QGRQHVLD
1R 5RDG6HJPHQW 5RDG/HQJWK
NLORPHWHUV
&RQWUDFW 3HULRG
3URMHFW/RFDWLRQ
&LDVHP3DPDQXNDQ 1RUWKFRDVWODQHRI-DYD
,VODQG
'HPDN7UHQJJXOL
6HPDUDQJ%DZHQ
&HQWUDOODQHRI-DYD,VODQG
%RMRQHJRUR3DGDQJDQ
3DGDQJDQ1JDZL
6HL+DQ\X7XPEDQJ/DKXQJ .DOLPDQWDQ,VODQG
7KLVVWXG\ZDVFRQGXFWHGRQRQH3%&SLORWSURMHFWDWRQHVHFWLRQRIDQDWLRQDOURDGRQ WKHQRUWKHUQFRDVWRI:HVW-DYDLH&LDVHP3DPDQXNDQVHFWLRQ)LJ7KHFRQWUDFWZDV FRPSOHWHGLQ7KHSURMHFWZDVIRUURDGLPSURYHPHQWZRUNDORQJNLORPHWHUVRI URDGZLWKDSDYHPHQWZLGWKRIPHWHUV7KHW\SHRISDYHPHQWFRQVLVWHGRIIOH[LEOHDQG ULJLGSDYHPHQWVRQWKHIDVWDQGVORZODQHVUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHURDGDJHQF\LVWKHRZQHURI WKH .DUDZDQJ&LNDPSHN3DPDQXNDQ VHFWLRQ ZKRVH WHUULWRU\ LV NLORPHWHUV RI WKH WRWDONLORPHWHUVRIWKHQRUWKHUQFRDVWRI:HVW-DYD6HFWLRQ
)LJ/RFDWLRQRI&LDVHP3DPDQXNDQVHFWLRQ
1DWLRQDOURDGVHFWLRQVRQ-DYD,VODQGKDYH DKLJKHUWUDIILF YROXPHDQGWUDIILFORDGV FRPSDUHGWRURDGVRQRWKHULVODQGVHVSHFLDOO\RQWKHQRUWKFRDVWODQHRI-DYD5HIHUHQFH
>@VKRZHGWKDWWKHDYHUDJHGDLO\WUDIILFRQ&LDVHP3DPDQXNDQVHFWLRQLQRUILUVW
\HDU RI FRQWUDFW ZDV PRUH WKDQ PLOOLRQ YHKLFOHV LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV ZKHUH WKH WUDIILF YROXPHLVGLVWULEXWHGPRVWO\RQWKHIDVWODQHZLWKIOH[LEOHSDYHPHQW$SSUR[LPDWHO\
RIKHDY\YHKLFOHVDUHGLVWULEXWHGLQWKHIDVWODQH>@
/,)(&<&/(&267/&&$1$/<6,6
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
7DEOH7KHFRPSRQHQWVRIURDGDJHQF\FRVWV
7\SHRIURDGZRUNV 5RDG$JHQF\&RVWIRU7UDGLWLRQDO&RQWUDFW$SSURDFK 'HOLYHU\6\VWHP 5RDGDJHQF\FRVWVFRPSRQHQWV
5RXWLQHPDLQWHQDQFH ,QKRXVH 5RXWLQHPDLQWHQDQFHFRVW 3HULRGLFPDLQWHQDQFH '%% 3HULRGLFPDLQWHQDQFHFRVW
&RQWUDFWRUSURFXUHPHQWFRVW 'HVLJQFRVW
'HVLJQHUSURFXUHPHQWFRVW 6XSHUYLVLRQFRVW
6XSHUYLVRUSURFXUHPHQWFRVW
5RDGLPSURYHPHQW '%%
5RDGLPSURYHPHQWFRVW
&RQWUDFWRUSURFXUHPHQWFRVW 'HVLJQFRVW
'HVLJQHUSURFXUHPHQWFRVW 6XSHUYLVLRQFRVW
6XSHUYLVRUSURFXUHPHQWFRVW 7\SHRIURDGZRUNV 5RDG$JHQF\&RVWIRU3%&
'HOLYHU\6\VWHP 5RDGDJHQF\FRVWVFRPSRQHQWV 'HVLJQDQGURDG
PDLQWHQDQFH LQWHJUDWHG
'%20 ,QWHJUDWHGSURFXUHPHQWFRVWVIRUGHVLJQHU DQGFRQWUDFWRU
,QWHJUDWHGFRVWVIRUGHVLJQDQGURDGZRUNV 3URFXUHPHQWFRVWIRUH[WHUQDOVXSHUYLVLRQ 6XSHUYLVLRQFRVW
7KLVVWXG\DSSOLHGWKH/&&PHWKRGZLWKDGHWHUPLQLVWLFDSSURDFK7RRYHUFRPHWKH XQFHUWDLQW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDQHVWLPDWHGSUHVHQWYDOXHRI/&&ZHDSSOLHGGHWHUPLQLVWLF VHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVLQRUGHUWKDWWKHHVWLPDWLRQLQGLFDWHWKHYDULDELOLW\RI/&&
IRUURDGPDLQWHQDQFHSURMHFWVSHUIRUPHGXVLQJGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIFRQWUDFWV$FFRUGLQJWR>@
DQG>@WKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDSURMHFWDSSO\LQJD3%&VFKHPH²VXFKDVWKHOHQJWKDQG LQLWLDOFRQGLWLRQRIWKHURDGWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHFRQWUDFWWKHQXPEHUDQGW\SHRIDFWLYLWLHV
FRPSULVHG LQ WKH FRQWUDFW SDFNDJH WKH H[WHQVLRQ RU DGGLWLRQ RI FRQWUDFW SHULRG DQG WKH SHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUVDSSOLHG²DIIHFWVLWVFRVWHIILFLHQF\
,QWKLVVWXG\DGHWHUPLQLVWLFVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHOHQJWKDQGLQLWLDO FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH URDG FRQWUDFWHG DQG GXUDWLRQ RI WKH 3%& SURMHFW ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ VFHQDULRVRIZKLFKZHUHIRU3%&SURMHFWVDQGIRUWUDGLWLRQDOSURMHFWV7KUHHRYHUDOO VFHQDULRV ZHUH GHVLJQHG HDFK ZLWK YDU\LQJ URDG OHQJWKV WKH ILUVW VFHQDULR XVHG D URDG OHQJWKFRPSO\LQJZLWKWKHVFRSHRIWKHFDVHVWXG\SURMHFWWKHFRQWUDFWHGURDGLQWKHVHFRQG VFHQDULR ZDV H[WHQGHG WR URDG QHWZRUNV XQGHU WKH DXWKRULW\ RI WKH RZQHU RI .DUDZDQJ
&LNDPSHN3DPDQXNDQ6HFWLRQVDQGWKHFRQWUDFWHGURDGLQWKHWKLUGVFHQDULRZDVH[WHQGHG WRWKHQRUWKHUQFRDVWODQHRI:HVW-DYD)RUHDFKRIWKHVHVFHQDULRVRIGLIIHUHQWURDGOHQJWKV WKHLQLWLDOURDGFRQGLWLRQVZHUHVLPXODWHGDVEHLQJJRRGIDLUPLQRUGDPDJHDQGKHDY\
GDPDJH)RUHDFKLQLWLDOURDGFRQGLWLRQWKH3%&SURMHFWGXUDWLRQVZHUHVLPXODWHGWRIROORZ WKH H[LVWLQJ SUDFWLFDO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV RI 3%& LQ ,QGRQHVLD² DQG \HDUV²DQG IRUWKFRPLQJ 3%& SURMHFWV² \HDUV $ VXPPDU\ RI DOO WKH VFHQDULRV XVHG LQ WKH /&&
FDOFXODWLRQVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH
7DEOH6FHQDULRVXVHGLQWKH/&&$QDO\VLV
5RDG/HQJWK NLORPHWHUV
,QLWLDO5RDG
&RQGLWLRQ
/&&RI 7UDGLWLRQDO3URMHFWV
'XUDWLRQRI 3%&3URMHFWV
/&&RI3%&
3URMHFWV
*RRG /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
)DLU /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
0LQRU'DPDJH /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
+HDY\'DPDJH /&&7& \HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
*RRG /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
)DLU /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
0LQRU'DPDJH /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
+HDY\'DPDJH /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
*RRG /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
)DLU /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
0LQRU'DPDJH /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
+HDY\'DPDJH /&&7&
\HDUV
\HDUV
\HDUV
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
/&&3%&
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
$VFKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIWKH/&&DQDO\VLVSURFHGXUHLVVKRZQLQ)LJ7KHLQLWLDOVWHS WRFDOFXODWHWKHSURMHFW¶V/&&LVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHURDGFRQGLWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNV UHTXLUHG)LJ,QLWLDOURDGFRQGLWLRQVZHUHYDULHGWRUHSUHVHQWJRRGIDLUPLQRUGDPDJHG DQGKHDYLO\GDPDJHGFRQGLWLRQV
)LJ/&&FDOFXODWLRQSURFHGXUH
,QOLQHZLWKWKHSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUVVHWLQWKH3%&SURMHFWWKHURDGFRQGLWLRQVZHUH PHDVXUHG EDVHG RQ WKH URDG¶V IXQFWLRQDO SHUIRUPDQFH XVLQJ D URXJKQHVV LQGLFDWRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5RXJKQHVV,QGH[,5,7KHURDGFRQGLWLRQVZHUHDVVXPHGWREHXQLIRUPDQG ZHUH H[SUHVVHG XVLQJ D VLQJOH ,5, YDOXH 7KH 3XEOLF :RUNV 0LQLVWU\ 5HJXODWLRQ RQ 3URFHGXUHVIRU5RDG0DLQWHQDQFHDQG6XUYHLOODQFH>@ZDVXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHW\SHRI PDLQWHQDQFH ZRUNV VXLWDEOH IRU WKH URDG FRQGLWLRQ 7DEOH 7DEOH LV DOVR XVHG WR GHWHUPLQHWKHURDG¶VFRQGLWLRQVDIWHUPDLQWHQDQFHEDVHGRQ,5,YDOXHV
7DEOH*XLGHOLQHVIRUGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIURDGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNV
5RDG
&RQGLWLRQ ,5,9DOXH
5DQJH ,5,9DOXH
8VHG 5HTXLUHG:RUNV ,5,9DOXHDIWHU
0DLQWHQDQFH
*RRG ,5, 5RXWLQHSUHYHQWLYHPDLQWHQDQFH 6DPHDVLQLWLDO,5,
)DLU ,5, 5RXWLQHFRUUHFWLYHPDLQWHQDQFH 3UHYLRXV,5,±
0LQRU'DPDJH ,5, 3HULRGLFPDLQWHQDQFH
+HDY\'DPDJH ,5,E %HWWHUPHQW
3%&V DQG WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFKHV KDYH GLIIHUHQW URDG PDLQWHQDQFH VWUDWHJLHV 7KH PDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVXQGHUD3%&VFKHPHDUHFRQGXFWHGWKURXJKRXWWKH\HDUE\FRQVLGHULQJ WKHURDGFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKHSURMHFW¶VSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUVZKLFKLQWKLVSURMHFWFDVHVWXG\
ZDV,5,PNP7KHPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNDSSOLHGWRWKH3%&SURMHFWPD\EHKLJKHUWKDQ
'HWHUPLQHWKHLQLWLDO URDGFRQGLWLRQ
'HWHUPLQHWKH PDLQWHQDQFHZRUNV
UHTXLUHG
'HWHUPLQHWKHURDG FRQGLWLRQDIWHU
PDLQWHQDQFH 'HWHUPLQHWKHURDG
PDLQWHQDQFHFRVW
'HWHUPLQHWKHURDG GHWHULRUDWLRQ
&DOFXODWHWKHWRWDOFRVWRIURDG PDLQWHQDQFHGXULQJWKHDQDO\VLV
SHULRGRI/&&
3URMHFW/&&
,IQRWHQGRIDQDO\VLVSHULRG
SURFHHGWRWKHQH[W\HDU
(QGRIDQDO\VLVSHULRG
ZKDWLVUHTXLUHGE\UHJXODWLRQ7DEOH)RUH[DPSOHJRRGURDGFRQGLWLRQVUHTXLUHRQO\
URXWLQH SUHYHQWLYH PDLQWHQDQFH EXW LI WKLV DFWLRQ LV LPSOHPHQWHG WKH GHWHULRUDWLRQ SUHGLFWLRQIRUWKHFRPLQJ\HDUZRXOGH[FHHGWKHSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUVVHWRXWLQWKH3%&
SURMHFWDQGKLJKHUPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVLQWKLVFDVHURXWLQHFRUUHFWLYHPDLQWHQDQFHVKRXOG EH DSSOLHG ,Q WUDGLWLRQDO SURMHFWV URDG PDLQWHQDQFH LV FRQGXFWHG HYHU\ \HDU DQG RQO\
FRQVLGHUVWKHURDGFRQGLWLRQV,QJHQHUDOSUHYHQWLYHPDLQWHQDQFHVWUDWHJLHVDUHDSSOLHGWR WKH3%&VFKHPHZKLFKGHOD\VDQGSUHYHQWVZLGHVSUHDGGDPDJHWRWKHURDGVZKHUHDVLQ WUDGLWLRQDO SURMHFWV FRUUHFWLYH PDLQWHQDQFH VWUDWHJLHV DUH DSSOLHG LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR UHSDLU GDPDJHVWKDWKDYHDOUHDG\RFFXUUHG,QWKLVVWXG\WKRVHWZRFRQWUDFWDSSURDFKHVDUHVHWE\
DSSO\LQJ WKH VDPH SHUIRUPDQFH LQGLFDWRU IRU WKH URDG WKDW ZLOO EH FRQWUDFWHG 7KXV WKH LPSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH /&& GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ ERWK W\SHV RI FRQWUDFW LV VLPSO\ RQ WKH PHFKDQLVPRISURMHFWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
7KHQH[WVWHSLQWKH/&&FDOFXODWLRQSURFHGXUHLVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHURDGPDLQWHQDQFH FRVW7KHFRVWIRUHDFKW\SHRIURDGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNZDVHVWLPDWHGEDVHGRQKLVWRULFDO FRVWGDWDRIURDGSURMHFWVFRQWUDFWHGXVLQJWUDGLWLRQDOFRQWUDFWVGXULQJWKH\HDUV 7KH KLVWRULFDO GDWD ZDV FROOHFWHG IURP WKH VDPH URDG VHJPHQW DQG YLFLQLW\ DV WKH RQH UHYLHZHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KHXQLWFRVWHVWLPDWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWIRUWKH\HDUDQGZDV XVHGDVDEDVHOLQHRIWKH/&&FDOFXODWLRQ7DEOH8QLWFRVWRI3%&SURMHFWQRWLQFOXGLQJ WKHFRVWRIVHUYLFHSURYLGHUSURFXUHPHQWDQGVXSHUYLVLRQZRUNV
7DEOH8QLWFRVWHVWLPDWHRIURDGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNV
7\SHRI:RUNV 3URMHFW8QLW&RVW
5SNP
5RXWLQHSUHYHQWLYHPDLQWHQDQFH
5RXWLQHFRUUHFWLYHPDLQWHQDQFH
3HULRGLFPDLQWHQDQFH
%HWWHUPHQW
1RWH86' 5S
,QWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKURXWLQHPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVDUHDOZD\VFDUULHGRXWXQGHUDQLQ KRXVHV\VWHPLQZKLFKWKHSODQQLQJDQGVXSHUYLVLRQDUHFDUULHGRXWE\LQKRXVHVWDIIDQG WKHPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNLVFRQGXFWHGXVLQJHTXLSPHQWDYDLODEOHDWBalai Pelaksanaan Jalan Nasional7KHWRWDOFRVWRILQKRXVHZRUNVFRQVLVWVRQO\RIPDWHULDOFRVWVDQGZDJHVRIILHOG ZRUNHUV3HULRGLFPDLQWHQDQFHDQGEHWWHUPHQWRQWKHWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKDUHFDUULHGRXW XQGHU WKH '%%GHOLYHU\V\VWHP7KH URDG DJHQF\ H[SHQGLWXUHV LQFOXGH FRVWV IRU GHVLJQ FRQVWUXFWLRQDQGVXSHUYLVLRQDVZHOODVWKHFRVWRISURFXULQJVHUYLFHSURYLGHUVIRUHDFKRI WKRVHZRUNV
3%&SURMHFWVGLIIHUIURPWUDGLWLRQDOSURMHFWVLQWKDW3%&SURMHFWVDUHRUJDQL]HGXQGHU D'HVLJQ%XLOG2SHUDWH0DLQWDLQ'%20SURMHFWGHOLYHU\V\VWHPDVVWDWHGLQ>@7KH URDGDJHQF\H[SHQVHVHQFRPSDVVWKHFRVWVIRUGHVLJQFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHDOOLQ DQLQWHJUDWHGPDQQHU>@,QWKLVFDVHVWXG\SURMHFWWKHUHZDVDOVRDFRVWIRUWKHDFWLYLWLHV RIDQLQGHSHQGHQWVXSHUYLVRUWKDWZHUHPHDQWWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHSURMHFWTXDOLW\DVVXUDQFH ZDVSHUIRUPLQJDGHTXDWHO\3URFXUHPHQWFRVWVLQ3%&SURMHFWVFRQVLVWRIVHUYLFHSURYLGHU SURFXUHPHQWRIERWKWKHFRQWUDFWRUDQGVXSHUYLVRU
7KLVVWXG\GHWHUPLQHGWKH/&&SURMHFWEDVHGRQGHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHURDG7KLVVWXG\
XVHVWKH,QGRQHVLDQ,QWHJUDWHG5RDG0DQDJHPHQW6\VWHP,,506PHWKRGWRHVWLPDWHWKH GHWHULRUDWLRQRIIOH[LEOHSDYHPHQWVZKLFKLVH[SUHVVHGLQWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQ
,5,W HW>,5,R61&1(W@ (T
ZKHUH,5,WLVWKHURDGGHWHULRUDWLRQSUHGLFWLRQDIWHU\HDURIPDLQWHQDQFH,5,RLVWKH,5, YDOXHLPPHGLDWHO\DIWHUPDLQWHQDQFHWLVWKHWLPHRIHYDOXDWLRQW DVWKHPDLQWHQDQFH ZRUN LV WR EH FRQGXFWHG HYHU\ \HDU 61& LV WKH VWUXFWXUDO QXPEHU FDSDFLW\ RI WKH SDYHPHQWVDQG1(WLVWKHFXPXODWLYHHTXLYDOHQWVLQJOHD[OHORDG&(6$/DWWLPHWSHU PLOOLRQ(6$/61&DQG&(6$/GDWDDUHREWDLQHGIURP>@7KH&(6$/YDOXHLQ ZDVZLWKDJURZWKUDWHVHWWRSHU\HDU,QWKLVVWXG\WKH61&YDOXHVZHUH DVVXPHGWREHLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHURDGV¶IXQFWLRQDOSHUIRUPDQFHZKHUH61&YDOXHVIRUURDGV ZLWKJRRGDQGIDLUFRQGLWLRQVZHUHHDFKVHWDWDQGZLWKDFRQGLWLRQIDFWRURI DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
5HVXOWVRIWKHGHWHULRUDWLRQHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQW\HDUZHUHXVHGDVLQSXWWRDVVHVV WKHLQLWLDOURDGFRQGLWLRQVIRUWKHIROORZLQJ\HDUDQGEDVHGRQWKHVHSUHGLFWLRQVWKHUHTXLUHG PDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVIRUWKHIROORZLQJ\HDUVZHUHLGHQWLILHG7KLVSURFHVVZDVFDUULHGRXW WKURXJKRXWWKHSHULRGRIDQDO\VLV
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
\HDUV+RZHYHUDVWKHFRQWUDFWGXUDWLRQRIWKH3%&SURMHFWVLVRU\HDUVLGHQWLILFDWLRQ RIWKHUHTXLUHGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVDQGWKHLUFRVWGXULQJWKHRU\HDUVZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ DFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKH3%&PDLQWHQDQFHVWUDWHJ\$IWHUWKHHQGRIWKH3%&FRQWUDFWSHULRG URDGPDLQWHQDQFHLVDVVXPHGWREHGHOLYHUHGXVLQJDWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKXQWLOWKHHQGRI WKH/&&DQDO\VLVSHULRG7KHUHIRUHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHUHTXLUHGPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNVDQG FDOFXODWLRQRIURDGPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVIRUWKHUHVWRIWKHDQDO\VLVSHULRGZDVFRQGXFWHGXVLQJ DWUDGLWLRQDOVFKHPH
$VWKH3%&SURMHFWUHYLHZHGLQWKLVVWXG\ZDVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHEDVHOLQHRI WKH/&&FDOFXODWLRQDQGHVWLPDWLRQRIWKH/&&SUHVHQWYDOXHZHUHVHWIRUWKH\HDU /&&FDOFXODWLRQZDVGRQHXVLQJDQDYHUDJHGLVFRXQWUDWHGXULQJ7KHGLVFRXQW UDWHXVHGKHUHZDV
352-(&7/&&()),&,(1&<
,QJHQHUDOWKHUHVXOWVRIWKLVFDOFXODWLRQVKRZWKDW3%&SURMHFWVJHQHUDWHDORZHU/&&
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
)LJ/&&RI3%&DQGWUDGLWLRQDOSURMHFWV
/&&SURMHFWVLQFUHDVHDVWKHOHQJWKRIFRQWUDFWHGURDGVLQFUHDVHVKRZHYHUSURMHFWFRVWV SHUNLORPHWHURIURDGGHFUHDVHE\DVVKRZQLQ)LJ7KLVLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK>@DQG
>@ WKXV ZRUNLQJ RQ ORQJHU URDG OHQJWKV KDV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR JHQHUDWH ORZHU /&&
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3%&IRUWKHPDLQWHQDQFHRIORQJURDGVFDQSRWHQWLDOO\JHQHUDWHDKLJKHU /&&HIILFLHQF\GXHWRWKHHFRQRPLHVRIVFDOHLQXQLWFRVWRIURDGPDLQWHQDQFH7KHUHLVDOVR DEHQHILWLQWKHIRUPRIHQVXULQJURDGSHUIRUPDQFHRQDORQJURDGQHWZRUN
)LJ3URMHFWFRVWFRPSDULVRQSHUNLORPHWHURIURDG
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
GDPDJHG FRQGLWLRQ DQG KLJK WUDIILF ORDGV ZLOO HQFRXUDJH FRQWUDFWRUV WR SHUIRUP URDG EHWWHUPHQWZRUNVLQWKHHDUO\\HDUVRIWKHFRQWUDFWEHFDXVHRIWKHKLJKOHYHOVRIXQFHUWDLQW\
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSDYHPHQWVWUXFWXUDOFRQGLWLRQ
)LJ3URMHFWFRVWFRPSDULVRQIRUGLIIHUHQWURDGFRQGLWLRQ
7KH/&&DQDO\VLVDOVRVKRZHGWKDWWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3%&ZLWKDGXUDWLRQRI
\HDUVJHQHUDWHGDQ/&&HIILFLHQF\RIFRPSDUHGWRWKHVKRUWHUFRQWUDFWGXUDWLRQDV VKRZQLQ)LJ7KLVUHVXOWLVLQOLQHZLWKWKHILQGLQJVRI>@DQG>@$OWKRXJKORQJFRQWUDFW GXUDWLRQVUHTXLUHDVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHULQLWLDOFRVWWKH\FDQHQVXUHURDGSHUIRUPDQFHRYHU DORQJSHULRGRIWLPH2WKHUEHQHILWVRIDORQJFRQWUDFWGXUDWLRQLQFOXGHOHVVEXUHDXFUDF\
IRU WKH URDG DJHQFLHV GXH WR WKH DVVXUDQFH RI DYDLODEOH IXQGLQJ RI URDG PDLQWHQDQFH IRU VHYHUDO\HDUVDOORZLQJWKHDJHQF\WRIRFXVRQHIIRUWVWRLQFUHDVHWKHLUUROHDQGH[SHUWLVHLQ WKHDUHDVRIDVVHWPDQDJHPHQW5RDGVPDLQWDLQHGDWJRRGFRQGLWLRQVSURYLGHEHQHILWVIRU URDGXVHUVVXFKDVUHGXFLQJWKHYHKLFOHRSHUDWLQJFRVWVDFFLGHQWUDWHDQGWUDYHOWLPHDV DOVRGHPRQVWUDWHGE\>@
)LJ3URMHFWFRVWFRPSDULVRQIRUGLIIHUHQWFRQWUDFWGXUDWLRQ
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
)LJ3%&HIIHFWLYHQHVVIRUGLIIHUHQWFRQWUDFWVFHQDULRV
&21&/86,21
7KLVVWXG\FRQGXFWHG/&&FDOFXODWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVRID3%&SLORWSURMHFWRQQDWLRQDO URDGVLQ,QGRQHVLDZLWKKLJKWUDIILFYROXPHVDQGRYHUORDGV7KH/&&FDOFXODWLRQVKRZHG WKDWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3%&IRUURDGPDLQWHQDQFHKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRJHQHUDWHORZHU/&&
FRPSDUHGWRWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKHV 3UHYHQWLYHWUHDWPHQWRQ3%&
SURMHFWV FRXOG GHOD\ DQG UHVWULFW URDG GHWHULRUDWLRQ WKHUHE\ UHGXFLQJ WKH ORQJWHUP FRVW FRPSDUHGWRLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIFRUUHFWLYHWUHDWPHQWVZLWKWUDGLWLRQDOFRQWUDFWV
7KLVVWXG\FRQWULEXWHVWRWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIDQDFFXUDWH3%&VFKHPHEDVHGRQWKH LQGLFDWRURI/&&HIILFLHQF\7KHUHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDW3%&SURMHFWVDUHKLJKO\HIIHFWLYHRQ URDGVZLWKJRRGFRQGLWLRQVDQGORQJWHUPFRQWUDFWGXUDWLRQ7KHVHILQGLQJVDUHVSHFLILFDOO\
IRUSURMHFWVWKDWDUHVLPLODUWRWKLVFDVHVWXG\KRZHYHUWKHSULQFLSOHVRI/&&DVVHVVPHQW DQG 3%& HIIHFWLYHQHVV DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ FDQ EH DSSOLHG LQ JHQHUDO )XUWKHUPRUH WKLV VWXG\ KDV SURYHQ WKDW 3%& LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ PD\ GHFUHDVH WKH URDG PDLQWHQDQFH FRVW DQG DOVR SURYLGH RWKHU EHQHILWV WKDW PD\ QRW EH HDVLO\ UHIOHFWHG LQ PRQHWDU\YDOXH
7KH/&&FDOFXODWLRQVLQWKLVVWXG\XVHGDGHWHUPLQLVWLFDSSURDFKDQGGLGQRWWDNHLQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHXQFHUWDLQW\RI/&&$LQSXWYDULDEOHVWKDWFDQDIIHFWWKHUHVXOWVRI/&&
HIILFLHQF\SRWHQWLDO7KHVHQVLWLYLW\RI/&&LQWKLVVWXG\ZDVOLPLWHGWRWKHLQLWLDOFRQGLWLRQV DQGOHQJWKRIWKHURDGFRQWUDFWHGDQGWKHFRQWUDFWGXUDWLRQRIWKH3%&SURMHFW7KHUHDUH YDULRXVRWKHUYDULDEOHVWKDWFDQDIIHFWWKHYDULDELOLW\RI/&&VXFKDVWKHVWUXFWXUDOFRQGLWLRQ RIURDGVDQGYHKLFOHORDGWKDWPLJKWLQIOXHQFHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHGHWHULRUDWLRQVLJQLILFDQWO\
5()(5(1&(6
>@ &DUSHQWHU%)HNSH(*RSDODNULVKQD'3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG&RQWUDFWLQJIRUWKH +LJKZD\&RQVWUXFWLRQ,QGXVWU\DQ(YDOXDWLRQRIWKH8VHRI,QQRYDWLYH&RQWUDFWLQJDQG 3HUIRUPDQFH6SHFLILFDWLRQLQ+LJKZD\&RQVWUXFWLRQ
KWWSZZZQFSSSRUJUHVRXUFHVSDSHUVEDWWHOOHUHSRUWSGI)LQDO5HSRUW.RFK,QGXVWULHV,QF :DVKLQJWRQ'&DFFHVVHGRQ6HSWHPEHU
>@ :RUOG%DQN,QYHVWLQJLQ,QGRQHVLD¶V5RDGV,PSURYLQJ(IILFLHQF\DQG&ORVLQJWKH )LQDQFLQJ*DS5RDG6HFWRU3XEOLF([SHQGLWXUH5HYLHZ-DNDUWD
>@ $QDVWDVRSRXORXV30F&XOORXFK%**NULW]D.0DQQHULQJ)/6LQKD.&&RVW 6DYLQJV$QDO\VLVRI3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG&RQWUDFWVIRU+LJKZD\0DLQWHQDQFH2SHUDWLRQV -RXUQDORI,QIUDVWUXFWXUH6\VWHPV$6&(,
>@ 7DPLQ5=7DPLQ$=0DU]XNL3)3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG&RQWUDFW$SSOLFDWLRQ 2SSRUWXQLW\DQG&KDOOHQJHVLQ,QGRQHVLDQ1DWLRQDO5RDGV0DQDJHPHQWProceedings: The
7ZHOIWK(DVW$VLD3DFLILF&RQIHUHQFHRQ6WUXFWXUDO(QJLQHHULQJDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ, 3URFHGLD (QJLQHHULQJ
>@ *DMXUHO$3HUIRUPDQFHEDVHG&RQWUDFWVIRU5RDG3URMHFWV&RPSDUDWLYH$QDO\VLV RI'LIIHUHQW7\SHV,6%16SULQJHU,QGLD
>@ :RUOG%DQN6DPSOHELGGLQJGRFXPHQWVSURFXUHPHQWRIZRUNVDQGVHUYLFHVXQGHU RXWSXWDQGSHUIRUPDQFHEDVHGURDGFRQWUDFWVDQGVDPSOHVSHFLILFDWLRQV
>@ +\PDQ:$3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG&RQWUDFWLQJIRU0DLQWHQDQFH1&+536\QWKHVLV , KWWSRQOLQHSXEVWUERUJRQOLQHSXEVQFKUSQFKUSBV\QBSGI, DFFHVVHGRQ-XO\
>@ 6XVDQWL%:LUDKDGLNXVXPDK5',GHQWLILNDVL7DQWDQJDQGDQ3UDV\DUDW3HQHUDSDQ .RQWUDN%HUEDVLV.LQHUMDXQWXN3UR\HN.RQVWUXNVL-DODQGL,QGRQHVLD3URVLGLQJ.RQIHUHQVL 1DVLRQDO3DVFDVDUMDQD7HNQLN6LSLO,661
>@ :LUDKDGLNXVXPDK5'6XVDQWL%6RHPDUGL%6XWULVQR0'ULYHUVIRU,QFUHDVHG
%HQHILWVLQ3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG&RQWUDFWVRI5RDG3URMHFWV3URFHHGLQJVRI&RQIHUHQFHIRU
&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ5HVHDUFK1HWZRUNV,661
>@ &DUH)(YDOXDWLRQRI)XQFWLRQDODQG6WUXFWXUDOIRUIOH[LEOH3DYHPHQW8VLQJ1RQ 'HVWUXFWLYH0HWKRG±&DVH6WXG\&LDVHP3DPDQXNDQ6HFWLRQDW1RUWKHUQ&RDVWRI:HVW -DYD0DVWHU¶V7KHVLV,QVWLWXW7HNQRORJL%DQGXQJ
>@ 6XEDJLR%65$0&)5DKPDQ+.XVXPDZDWL$6WUXFWXUDODQG)XQFWLRQDO (YDOXDWLRQRI)OH[LEOH3DYHPHQWLQ,QGRQHVLD&DVH6WXG\&LDVHP3DPDQXNDQ6HFWLRQ 3URFHHGLQJV7KH(DVWHUQ$VLD6RFLHW\IRU7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ6WXGLHV,
>@ +DUULVRQ5:DDONHV6:LOGH:-$OLIHF\FOHFRVWDQDO\VLVRIULJLGSDYHPHQW 3URMHFW6XPPDU\5HSRUW6 &HQWHUIRU7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HVHDUFK7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI 7H[DVDW$XVWLQKWWSVZZZXWH[DVHGXUHVHDUFKFWUSGIBUHSRUWVB6SGIDFFHVVHGRQ 2FWREHU
>@ :LOGH:-:DDONHV6+DUULVRQ5/LIHF\FOHFRVWDQDO\VLVRI3RUWODQG&HPHQW
&RQFUHWH3DYHPHQWV&HQWHUIRU7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HVHDUFK8QLYHUVLW\RI7H[DVDW$XVWLQ 5HVHDUFK5HSRUW
KWWSGGWOQQOSIUUFORXGIURQWQHWVZXWFWDPXHGXSXEOLFDWLRQVWHFKQLFDOUHSRUWV SGIDFFHVVHGRQ$SULO
>@ *RK.&<DQJ-([WHQGLQJ/LIH&\FOH&RVWLQJ/&&$QDO\VLVIRU6XVWDLQDELOLW\
&RQVLGHUDWLRQVLQ5RDG,QIUDVWUXFWXUH3URMHFWV. 3URFHHGLQJVUG&,%,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFHRQ6PDUWDQG6XVWDLQDEOH%XLOW(QYLURQPHQW, 487'LJLWDO5HSRVLWRU\
KWWSHSULQWVTXWHGXDXDFFHVVHGRQ1RYHPEHU
>@ )HGHUDO+LJKZD\$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ/LIH&\FOH&RVW$QDO\VLV3ULPHU KWWSVZZZIKZDGRWJRYDVVHWOFFDSGIDFFHVVHGRQ1RYHPEHU
>@ 0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF:RUNV3XEOLF:RUNV0LQLVWHU5HJXODWLRQ1RRQ 3URFHGXUHVIRU5RDG0DLQWHQDQFHDQG6XUYHLOODQFH
>@ 6XOWDQD05DKPDQ$&KRZGKXU\6$Q2YHUYLHZRI,VVXHVWR&RQVLGHU%HIRUH ,QWURGXFLQJ3HUIRUPDQFH%DVHG5RDG0DLQWHQDQFH&RQWUDFWLQJ3URFHHGLQJVRI:RUOG
$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFH(QJLQHHULQJDQG7HFKQRORJ\
>@ :LOPRW&*&KHQJ*(VWLPDWLQJ)XWXUH+LJKZD\&RQVWUXFWLRQ&RVW-RXUQDORI
&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
>@ :DVKLQJWRQ6WDWH'HSDUWPHQWRI7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ&RVW(VWLPDWLQJ0DQXDOIRU 3URMHFWV
KWWSZZZZVGRWZDJRYSXEOLFDWLRQVPDQXDOVIXOOWH[W0(VWLPDWLQJ*XLGHOLQHVSGI DFFHVVHGRQ'HFHPEHU
>@ %XUQLQJKDP66WDQNHYLFK1:K\5RDG0DLQWHQDQFHLV,PSRUWDQWDQG+RZWR*HW LW'RQH7UDQVSRUW1RWH1R7517KH:RUOG%DQN:DVKLQJWRQ
'&KWWSVLWHUHVRXUFHVZRUOGEDQNRUJ,1775$1632575HVRXUFHV
751B5RDGB0DLQWHQDQFHSGIDFFHVVHGRQ
$SULO
>@ .RQJ-6)UDQJRSRO'0(YDOXDWLRQRI([SHFWHG/LIH&\FOH0DLQWHQDQFH&RVWRI 'HWHULRUDWLQJ6WUXFWXUHV-RXUQDORI6WUXFWXUDO(QJLQHHULQJ
>@ /LW]ND-:HQLQJHU9\FXGLO$7KH(IIHFWRI5HVWULFWHG%XGJHWVIRU5RDG
0DLQWHQDQFH3URFHHGLQJ7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±(XURSH3URFHGLD±6RFLDODQG
%HKDYLRUDO6FLHQFH
