EVALUATION OF COMMUTER METHODS FOR THE UN][MAS CAMPUS USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

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EVALUATION OF COMMUTER METHODS FOR THE UN][MAS CAMPUS USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Goh Weiyang

HE 148 G614

2009

Bachelor of Engineering with Honours

(Mechanical and Manufacturing System Engineering)

2009

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UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

BORANG PENGESAHAN STATUS TESIS

Judul: EVALUATION OF COMMUTER METHODS FOR THE UNIMAS CAMPUS USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

SESI PENGAJIAN: 2008R009

Saya GOH WEIYANG

(HURUF BESAR)

mengaku membenarkan tesis" ini disimpan di Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dengan syarat-syarat kegunaan seperti berikut:

1. Tesis adalah hakmilik Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.

2. Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dibenarkan membuat salinan untuk tujuan pengajian sahaja.

3. Membuat pendigitan untuk membangunkan Pangkalan Data Kandungan Tempatan.

4. Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dibenarkan membuat salinan tesis ini sebagai bahan pertukaran antara institusi pengajian tinggi.

5. ** Sila tandakan ( 11 ) di kotak yang berkenaan

a SULIT (Mengandungi maklumat yang berdarjah keselamatan atau kepentingan Malaysia seperti yang termaktub di dalam AKTA RAHSIA RASMI 1972).

TERHAD (Mengandungi makiumat TERHAD yang telah ditentukan oleh organisasi/

badan di mana penyelidikan dijalankan).

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oleh

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Alamat tetap:

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188, LORONG 5, KAMPUNG BOYAN 34000 TAIPING

PERAK.

TIDAK TERHAD

(TANDATA'N PENULTS) (TAI) ATANGAN PENYELIA)

A

PN. ERVINA JUNAIDI Nama Penyelia

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Tarikh:

(9ý5/Ol

Tarikh:

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CATATAN ^A

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Tesis dimaksudkan sebagai tesis bagi Ijazah Doktor Falsafah, Saijana dan Sarjana Muda.

Jika tesis ini SULIT atau TERHAD, sila lampirkan surat daripada pihak berkuasa/organisasi berkenaan dengan menyatakan sekali sebab dan tempoh tesis ini perlu dikelaskan sebagai

SULIT dan TERHAD.

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Approval Page

The project report attached hereto, entitled "Evaluation of Commuter Methods for the Unimas Campus Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process", which was prepared and submitted by Goh Weiyang in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Engineering with Honors (Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering) was hereby, read and approved by:

I 11c 101

PN EIWINA JUNAIDI Date

Project Supervisor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak

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Pusat aSARAWAK

EVALUATION OF COMMUTER METHODS FOR THE UNIMAS CAMPUS USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

GOH WEIYANG

Thesis Submitted to

the Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

for the Degree of Bachelor of Engineering

With Honors (Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering)

2009

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Dedicated to my family, friends and a greener future for our planet.

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Acknowledgement

The author would like to express his gratitude and appreciation to a few individuals without whom the completion of this thesis would not have been possible.

First and foremost, special mention is reserved for the project supervisor, Pn Ervina Junaidi, for all the assistance and support that she has afforded the author towards his research and completion of his thesis. Her kind guidance and supervision went a long way in aiding and motivating the author to produce the best of his work.

Special thanks are also reserved for the project co-supervisor, En Nazeri Abdul Rahman, for his untiring effort in guiding and enlightening the author on research methodologies and the use of Multiple Attribute Decision Making tools.

The author also wishes to express his sincere gratitude to En Hj Mohammad Zaky Gardafi b. Ibrahim and the cooperation of his Transport Unit in supplying the statistics and information vital to this research.

Last but not least, the author wishes to thank all Unimas community members who participated in his research, as well as his friends, coursemates and family who have been instrumental in lifting spirits during moments of difficulty and demotivation.

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Abstrak

Dengan pelancaran Kampus Barat Unimas pada tahun 2006, jumlah pelajar dan staf telah meningkat dan pola ini dijangka berterusan untuk tahun- tahun yang akan datang. Peningkatan populasi di kampus yang sebegini besar secara langsung membawa cabaran dari segi pengangkutan dan logistik.

Walaupun sebuah sistem komuter dalam bentuk rangkaian bas telah pun diwujudkan, ianya mempunyai reputasi sebagai system yang tidak boleh diharap dan tidak memenuhi keperluan komuter. Situasi sebegini mewajibkan sama ada penaiktarafan atau penggantian sistem bas yang sedia ada demi menyediakan komuniti kampus dengan sebuah kaedah pengangkutan yang boleh diharap. Pelaksanaan kaedah pengangkutan ini juga berpotensi mengalakkan pengurangan penggunaan pengangkutan peribadi, sekaligus mengelakkan masalah seperti kesesakan trafik dan pencemaran pada masa akan datang. Justeru, kajian ini merupakan sebuah penilaian berstruktur yang bertujuan untuk mengatasi cabaran-cabaran ini sambil mengambil kira keperluan pelajar dan pihak pengurusan universiti. Kaji selidik akan dijalankan untuk mengenalpasti keperluan-keperluan ini dan penilaian kaedah- kaedah pengangkutan akan dijalankan dengan menggunakan `alat pelaksanaan pilihan' untuk mengintegrasikan seboleh yang mungkin, keperluan-keperluan

ini ke dalam kaedah penyelesaian yang akan dipilih. Kaedah ini kemudiannya akan dibentangkan dalam bentuk panduan melaksanakan sistem komuter di Unimas.

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Abstract

With the opening of Unimas' new West Campus in 2006, student and staff numbers have increased and this trend is expected to continue in the coming years. An increase in population within such a large campus naturally brings with it transportation and logistical challenges. Although a commuter system in the form of a bus network is already in place, it has the reputation of being

unreliable and its fulfillment of commuter needs is often the subject of much debate. This situation necessitates either the drastic improvement or replacement of the current bus system to provide the community with a better, more reliable mode of transport which will potentially initiate a shift away from personal transport, hence avoiding undesirable situations such as traffic congestion and pollution in the future. This study will therefore focus on conducting a structured evaluation of potential options to resolve this challenge based on demands of the community and university management. Surveys will be used to identify and clarify the needs that a commuter system has to fulfill in Unimas and evaluation of these options will then be carried out via a decision- making tool in an attempt to integrate the various criteria as much as possible into the selected solution. This solution will then be presented in a manner that will hopefully serve as a rough guide on the feasibility in implementing such a commuter system within Unimas.

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Pusat Kbidwat Makluiaat AKademtlc UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Commuter Systems 11

2.1.1 Rapid Transit - 11

2.1.1.1 Ridership 12

2.1.1.2 Implementation Cost 13 2.1.1.3 Operational and Maintenance 15

Cost

2.1.2 Light Rail 16

Cost

2.1.3 Monorail 18

Cost

2.2 Design Criteria 21

2.2.1 Rapid Transit Criteria 23

2.2.2 Light Rail Criteria 25

2.2.3 Monorail Criteria 27

2.3 Safety 29

2.4 Decision Making 29

2.4.1 New Approach to Transportation 30 Appraisal

2.4.2 Analytic Hierarchy Process 32

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2.4.3 Cost-benefit Analysis 33

Chapter 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 35

3.2 Information Gathering 37

3.2.1 Qualitative Survey 37

3.2.2 Quantitative Survey 38

3.2.3 Gathering of Statistics 39

3.3 Analysis 39

3.3.1 Management and Commuter Criteria 40

3.3.2 Cost Demands 40

3.3.3 Design and Implementation Criteria 40

3.4 Decision Making 41

Chapter 4 RESULTS, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Commuter Surveys 44

4.1.1 General 44

4.1.2 Current Transportation Modes 45 4.1.3 Opinions on the Bus System 47 4.1.4 Willingness to Shift Modes 48 4.1.4.1 Potential Commuter Shift 51

4.1.5 Commuter Criteria 52

4.1.6 Summary of Findings 56

4.2 The Bus Commuter System 4.2.1 Composition

4.2.2 Maintenance and Life Cycle

57 58 58

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4.2.3 Routes and Schedules 59

4.2.4 Costs 60

4.2.4.1 Fuel Costs 60

4.2.4.2 Vehicle Procurement 62

4.2.5 Summary of Findings 62

4.3 Ridership Numbers 63

4.4 Criteria 65

4.5 Weighing 66

4.6 Commuter System Characteristics 68

4.7 AHP Groundwork 68

4.7.1 AHP Diagram 69

4.7.2 AHP Criteria Weighing 70

4.8 AHP Calculations 72

4.8.1 Implementation Cost 4.8.2 Operational Cost

4.8.3 Maintenance Cost 4.8.4 Space

4.8.5 Noise

4.8.6 Punctuality

72 75 75

76

76 77

4.8.7 Capacity 77

4.8.8 Safety 78

4.8.9 Final Weighing 79

4.9 The Proposed System 85

4.9.1 Weather and Safety 85

4.9.2 Routes and Space Availability 86

4.9.3 Costs 89

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4.10 Concept Line CBA 91

Chapter 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Introduction 96

5.2 Conclusions 97

5.3 Recommendations 98

5.4 Summary 100

Bibliography 101

Appendix 110

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List of Tables

Table Page

1.1 Student and Staff Population from 1992 to 2020 3

1.2 Selected Locations and their Distances from Allamanda 6 College

2.1 Ridership numbers for a few regional rapid transit 13 systems

2.2 Cost comparison for a few selected RT systems 15

2.3 O&M cost comparisons for a few selected RT systems 15

2.4 Ridership numbers for a few selected Light Rail Systems 17 in the USA

2.5 Cost comparison numbers for a few selected Light Rail 17 Systems in the USA

2.6 O&M cost comparisons for a few selected RT systems 18

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2.7 Ridership numbers for a few regional Monorail systems 20

2.8 Cost estimate of two monorail systems in the region 20

2.9 O&M cost comparisons for a few selected Monorail 21 systems

2.10 Design criteria for a streetcar system 26

2.11 Design Specifications for Scomi Rail Bhd's Monorail 28

2.12 2007 safety statistics for the three commuter methods in 29 the United States

4.1 Community opinions on the Unimas bus commuter system 47

4.2 Willingness of the Unimas community to shift modes to an 49 effective commuter system

4.3 Potential reduction in vehicle numbers with shift in 52 commuting methods

4.4 Routes, stops and frequencies of the bus commuter system 59 in Unimas

4.5 Findings on the Unimas bus commuter system

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4.6 Current and projected ridership numbers for the Unimas 64

community in 2009 and 2020

4.7 Weights assigned to the main criteria by the university 67 management and students for AHP analysis

4.8 Weights assigned to the sub-criteria for AHP analysis 67

4.9 Comparison of commuter systems according to criteria 68 identified in this research

4.10 Explanation of the scale used in the AHP calculations 72

4.11 Pairwise comparison for implementation cost 72

4.12 Comparison matrix for implementation cost 73

4.13 Comparison matrix for operational cost 75

4.14 Comparison matrix for maintenance cost 75

4.15 Comparison matrix for space 76

4.16 Comparison matrix for noise 76

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4.17 Comparison matrix for punctuality 77

4.18 Comparison matrix for capacity 77

4.19 Comparison matrix for safety 78

4.20 Combination of Level II-II criteria weights with various 82 fractions of decision-maker weights (Xi and X2)

4.21 Final weights for each commuter method for different 83 values of Pn

4.22 Capital costs for implementation of a tram system in 89 Unimas based on the Red Trolley Feasibility Study

4.23 O&M costs for implementation of a tram system in 90 Unimas based on the Red Trolley Feasibility Study

4.24 Cost-benefit calculations for the Unimas Intercampus 94

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List of Figures

Figure Page

1.1 Increase of Student Numbers in Unimas, 1992-2020 4

2.1 Study Approach of the NATA 31

3.1 Flowchart of the overall methodology used in this study 35

3.2 Detailed flowchart of the methodology used in the 42 research

3.3 NATA process for this research 43

4.1 Potential routes within Unimas and various faculties, 54 centers, facilities and colleges

4.2 Example of an AHP diagram with two attribute levels 69

4.3 AHP diagram for the selection of the Unimas commuter 71 system

4.4 Radar chart representing the weights of each method for 78

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Zi to Z8

4.5 Radar chart for the final weights of the commuter 84 methods for all breakdowns of Xi and X2

4.6 Proposed line and stops for the Unimas light rail 87

4.7 Proposed solutions to the built-up area problem 88

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Nomenclature

AHP - Analytic hierarchy process

APTA - American Public Transport Association BCR - Benefit-cost ratio

CATS - Center for Academic Information Services

CBA Cost-benefit analysis

CI - Consistency index

CLS - Center for Language Studies

CTF 1- Centralized Teaching Facility 1 CTF 2- Centralized Teaching Facility 2 FK - Faculty of Engineering

FSGK - Faculty of Applied and Creative Arts

FSKPM - Faculty of Cognitive Science and Human Development

FSKTM - Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology FSTS - Faculty of Resource Science and Technology

FTA - Federal Transit Administration

HEP - Student Affairs Department building

I- The identity matrix

LR Light rail

M- Monorail

MADM - Multiple attribute decision making

NATA - New approach to transportation appraisal

O Combined weights for all alternatives and third level criteria weights

O&M - Operational and maintenance

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PIARC - World Road Association

RM - Ringgit Malaysia (Malaysian ringgit)

RT - Rapid transit

TAZ - Tun Ahmad Zaidi residential college

UITP - International Association of Public Transport

W- Eigenvectors of a matrix

A- Eigenvalue of a matrix

P- Mean

o- Standard deviation

ai, c - increase of cars during base year (2008)

ai, m

- increase of motorcycles during base year (2008)

Da - Total days in an academic year (273 days; 2008/09 session) Dt - Total annual days (365 days)

&- annual increase of cars during the period ne

dm annual increase of motorcycles during the period nm Favg - Average fuel used per day per bus

Nmax - Total of Unimas buses at ideal use

Nn - Number of operational buses at any given time

nc - number of years with steady and proportional increase of cars (2008-2020)

nm - number of years with steady and proportional increase of motorcycles (2008-2020)

Pn - Combined criteria weights of decision makers and second level attributes for various Xn fractions

Xn - Decision maker weights

y - Second level attribute weights Zn - Third level attribute weights

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CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

In its sixteen-year existence so far, never has Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) seen such intense growth in terms of academic activity and enrolment numbers, especially after the opening of its new campus in 2006. Accompanying this growth however, is an underlying worry about its capacity; whether or not it can cope with future student numbers which are expected to rise to 20000 by the year 2020 (The Borneo Post Online, 2008).

Having such a student population would require not only planning in terms of classroom sizes, facilities, food and board, but also logistical needs. A good transportation system will be able to facilitate in moving students and staff to various locations effectively and at a low cost for the university to bear, hence enhancing the overall connectivity within the campus.

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1.1.1 History of Unimas

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) was established on 24 December 1992 as Malaysia's eighth public university with an initial enrolment of 118 students and 30 academic staff in two faculties. Studies initially commenced at the Telekom Training College, Simpang Tiga, Kuching, before moving to the East Campus at Kota Samarahan in 1994. A further four faculties were also established that year, bringing the total number of faculties to six. But even though experiencing such growth in its early stages, the university nevertheless remained in the East Campus in Kota Samarahan while awaiting construction of the newer, more permanent West Campus.

In 1995, the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences started enrolling students and this was followed in 1996 by the Faculty of Economics and Business, which brought the total number of faculties to the planned eight.

Growing from strength to strength, Unimas finally moved to its West Campus in 2006, with its official opening conducted by then Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on 18 April 2006, almost fourteen years after its establishment.

1.1.2 Student Population

As mentioned in Section 1.1.1, the initial population in Unimas at its establishment in 1992 was 118 students and 30 staff. After moving to the East Campus in 1994, its student population rose to 443. This number steadily rose by an average of about 450 students per year until the university moved to the

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new West Campus in 2006, which had the capacity to accept more students. This was reflected in the enrolment figure for the 2006/2007 academic year, which jumped to 7500, up from 5972 in the previous academic year of 2005/2006.

Figures from the Unimas Chancellery (2008) and university website (Unimas, 2009) put the student population at 9087 and 10885 for the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 academic year respectively, and this is expected, as mentioned before, to rise to 20000 by the year 2020. The statistics on student population growth obtained from the Chancellery and website have been compiled into the form of a table (Table 1.1) and graph (Figure 1.1) as can be seen in the next two pages.

Table 1.1: Student and Staff Population from 1992 to 2020 (Unimas Chancellery, 2008; Borneo Post, 2008)

Academic Year

Student Population

Growth

Population Growth Percentage

Increase/Decrease of Population

Growth Percentage

1992/1993 118 - - -

1993/1994 443 325 275.42% +275.42%

1994/1995 735 292 65.91% -209.51%

1995/1996 1110 375 51.02% -14.89%

1996/1997 1596 486 43.78% . 7.24%

1997/1998 2153 557 34.90% -8.88%

1998/1999 2568 415 19.28% -15.62%

1999/2000 3174 606 23.60% +4.32%

2000/2001 3931 757 23.85% +0.25%

2001/2002 4694 763 19.41% -4.44%

2002/2003 5147 453 9.65% -9.76%

2003/2004 5384 237 4.40% -5.25%

2004/2005 5671 287 5.33% +0.93%

2005/2006 5972 301 5.31% -0.02%

2006/2007 7500 1528 25.59% +20.28%

2007/2008 9087 1587 21.16% -4.43%

2008/2009 10885 1798 19.79% -1.37%

2020 20000 10913 120.09% +98.93%

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EVALUATION OF COMMUTER METHODS FOR THE UN][MAS CAMPUS USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS