International Journal of Engineering Advanced Research eISSN: 2710-7167 [Vol. 4 No. 2 June 2022]
Journal website: http://myjms.mohe.gov.my/index.php/ijear
MODE SHARE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR BRT INFRASTRUCTURE IN NEW CAPITAL CITY WITH A
SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
Sri Wanti Puspitasari1*, Sutanto Soehodho2 and Muhammad Nanang Prayudyanto3
1 2 Faculty of Engineering, University of Indonesia, Depok, INDONESIA
3 Faculty of Engineering, University of Ibnu Khaldun Bogor, Bogor, INDONESIA
*Corresponding author: [email protected]
Article Information:
Article history:
Received date : 17 June 2022 Revised date : 22 June 2022 Accepted date : 25 June 2022 Published date : 30 June 2022
To cite this document:
Puspitasari, S. W.,Soehodho, S., &
Prayudyanto, M. N. (2022). MODE SHARE SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS FOR BRT
INFRASTRUCTURE IN NEW CAPITAL CITY WITH A SYSTEM DYNAMICS
APPROACH. International Journal of Engineering Advanced Research, 4(2), 89-98.
Abstract: Indonesia will move the national capital to the East Kalimantan province according to the instructions of the President of the Republic of Indonesia. The plan for the new capital city or what is called the Ibu Kota Negara (IKN) was moved due to the dense population on the island of Java compared to other islands in Indonesia. There are several other reasons such as high urbanization growth, economic contribution, clean water crisis, land subsidence in Jakarta, and the threat of floods and earthquakes in Jakarta. To support the IKN transfer plan, the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas has prepared a master plan for the transfer of IKN starting from the existing population plan, spatial and regional planning plan, transportation plan, and other planning. In the master plan, it has been determined that 80% of mobility uses public transport, mainly focusing on the use of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). BRT is a bus-based public transportation system that has its lanes so that it is not disturbed by other traffic. This study aims to find out the sensitivity of the share mode by paying attention to the investments that have been prepared by the government.
This study was carried out with a system dynamics approach and modeling was carried out to find out how many buses are available in IKN by paying attention to population projections and interest in using buses. On the other hand, that also wants to see how the investment arises from the interest in the use of the bus.
1. Introduction
The transfer of the national capital has been carried out by several countries for a long time and continues until the 20th and 21st centuries. Just like in Indonesia, the relocation of the capital was launched by the President of the Republic of Indonesia to the Province of East Kalimantan. One of the reasons for moving the capital is want to reduce the burden on Jakarta and switch to Indonesia-centric. The Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas has prepared a master plan for the National Capital City (IKN), one of which has a key performance index (KPI), which is 80% of trips using public transportation (PT). Plans for the use of public transport are expected to reduce dependence on the use of private vehicles (Haryono, 2010).
Mode share is a division of the total trips made from the origin of the destination using certain modes of several available modes. Several factors affect the mode of sharing such as population, land use, density, income level, length of travel, road infrastructure, travel speed per capita travel rate, city size, public transport network, frequency, and tariff policy (Pillalamarri et al., 2016).
Considering the KPI of travel using public transportation, in the planning in 2024 we will use Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).
The government should provide services, especially public transportation terms of creating economic benefits. As the research carried out by Filipe and Macario in 2013 (Filipe & Macário, 2014) defines the policy package of BRT implementation as a combination of policy measurements aimed at the successful implementation of the BRT system and also made to increase the positive impact of the system and minimize its negative impact. In several policy packages for the implementation of BRT, there is one aspect of implementation, namely the aspects of funding and financing. These aspects are related to the imposition of congestion costs, fuel taxes, land use, and promoting the application to the financing of the BRT system (Filipe &
Macário, 2014) by paying attention to some of these points, it is necessary to check the funding of infrastructure development by paying attention to the existing budget allocation.
In serving the mode share for the planned BRT, special attention is needed to funding the construction of BRT infrastructure. Considerable BRT funding allows the central government to be able to provide either at its own expense or with loans.
2. Literature Review Systems Thinking
A thinking system is a causal approach to describing the reciprocal relationship between variables and systems. Dynamic systems quantify the impact of interactions between variables and systems.
A causal loop diagram (CLD) the result of system thinking is the initial stage in the development of system dynamics models, so CLD is a basic building block in the development of system dynamics models (Suryani et al., 2021).
Keywords: New Capital City, BRT, Systems Dynamic, Mode Share.
Systems Dynamic
Dynamic Systems was created by Jay W. Forrester at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology during the mid-1950s. The main idea is that any complex system can be modeled with no more than two types of variables namely stock and flow. The stock is the accumulation of units and is graphically represented as a rectangle, flow, which can be either an inflow or an outflow, implying the movement of units per time and visually illustrated by arrows. Stocks can only be changed through connected inflows and outflows. The flow in turn is regulated by the decision function, visualized as a valve on the inflow and outflow (Schoenenberger et al., 2021).
Dynamic systems are methodologies based on feedback systems borrowed from control theory and can handle easily non-linear and delay time and multi-loop structures of complex and dynamic systems. To assist in the operation of dynamic systems assisted by soft devices such as STELLA, VENSIM, and POWERSIM (Bala et al., 2014).
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
BRT is a bus-based fast transportation system, that has the potential to provide a high-quality transportation system (Thevadass et al., 2021), has a high quality of service at a relatively low cost, and has its line (ITDP, 2016).
High-quality bus-based systems also better serve the pattern of low-density settlements in many suburban markets and small to medium-sized cities due to the advantages of flexibility inherent in rubber tire systems – the same vehicles that provide fast mileage service on special bus lanes or busways can turn into feeder vehicles, collecting and distributing customers on local roads (Cervero, 2013).
Mode Share
Mode share is typically displayed as a percentage value for each transport type. The division of modes can be measured for a specific type of travel (e.g. a trip to work) or the total of all trips made in a city for a certain period (Battistini et al., 2021).
In qualitative research conducted by Muhtadi (Muhtadi et al., 2017) there are several ways to increase TransJakarta's Share Mode in several ways such as increasing the number of bus fleets, and adding feeder routes, conducting bike sharing programs, providing park and ride facilities.
Relationship Land Use and Transportation
Transportation and land use have an important relationship (Morimoto, 2021). If the land is used effectively, it stimulates city activities, giving rise to new activities related to transportation. The existence of urban activities has caused rapid economic growth so that the demand for land use increases and transportation must also be able to develop following it.
The interaction between land use and transportation has a theoretical strategy that includes technical, economic, and social theoretical. When there is a change in land use, there is a change in human activities and the mobility of people and goods (Guzman, 2019).
2.1 Problem Statement
This study conducted a mode share analysis for the needs of public transportation services on BRT infrastructure by looking at the funding plan provided by the government so that the fund can serve the planned mode of sharing. This research uses a system dynamics approach method because it can understand the changes in things over time which is very focused on feedback behavior and creating a closed circle system (Yusoff, 2020). SD is an efficient method that allows analyzing systems with dynamic complexity and policy resistance (Fontoura & Ribeiro, 2021)
3. Method
This study focuses on analyzing the needs of bus services that will be applied at IKN, analyzing the number of people traveling using public transportation, and the amount of investment made by the system dynamics method. The conceptual model shown in figure 1 is the Causal Loop Diagram.
Figure 1: Causal Loop Diagram of Public Transport Service Needs
The results of the causal loop diagram representation are then developed into a model system dynamics method by compiling a stock-flow diagram. The dynamics of the model system developed into several sub-models of causal loop development including the population sub- model, the income sub-model, the pedestrian demand sub-model, the public transport needs sub- model, and the investment sub-model.
Population Submodel and Income Submodel
The amount of people's income can depend on the GRDP itself. However, in the case of this IKN, the amount of income can be seen from the amount of initial income of the population who will occupy the IKN later. Of the amount of income, it affects his average per capita income. Average per capita income will be an input for the travel demand sub-model.
Population Submodel Income Submodel
Figure 2: Population and Income Submodel
Submodel Travel Demand and Submodel Public Transport Needs
As a preliminary input, the average per capita income determines the indication of travel demand.
The higher the per capita income, the more frequent the person's desire to travel and the person walks farther and farther. It is also influenced by how eager people are to travel. The presence of indications of travel demand will increase actual travel demand and also increase the demand for travel using public transportation. The demand for travel that uses high public transportation also affects the need for public transportation facilities and the need for investment in public transportation.
Travel Demand Submodel Public Transport Submodel
Figure 3: Travel Demand and Desired Public Transportation Submodels
Submodel Investment
The increasing need for public transport investment has also increased public transport assets. The higher the asset has the effect of increasing public transportation now and also affects the high capacity of public transportation now. High public transport capacity will reduce the utilization of public transportation.
Submodel Investment
Figure 4: Investment Submodel
3.1 Data Analysis
Several variables are calculated by looking at the historical data, but in this case, the variable that can only be validated is the validation of the population with the projection of the population. The function of this data validation is to find out how accurately the data can be built. Figure 5 is the result of population validation of population projections.
Figure 5: Population Validation
The existing population in 2020 is construction workers who will build infrastructure such as road infrastructure and building infrastructure. By 2025, it is hoped that IKN can be occupied by several state officials, soldiers, police, and their families. In 2045, it has been planned that the maximum population in the IKN is as large as 1.9 million people who will occupy the IKN. The magnitude of the validation comparison value between populations and population projections is seen in table 1.
Table 1: Population Validation Results Year Population Projected Population
2020 200.000 200.000
2025 509.204 487.852
2030 1.231.930 1.283.032 2035 1.455.190 1.448.686 2040 1.672.000 1.700.000 2045 1.923.610 1.900.000
4. Results and Discussion
Simulation results from several submodels that have been developed obtained the results of indicated travel demand and actual public transportation users as figure 6. The causes of travel indications are determined by the size of the population and the amount of income, as well as their willingness to travel frequently and as far as they go. In the picture of the indication of travel demand, in 2025 the magnitude of the indication is 58,711,700 people km/year. And for the actual number of public transport users in 2025 has a value of 2,935,590 people km/year. The amount of use of public transportation is also influenced by how much of an attraction to lure IKN residents to use public transportation. The chart also shows the high demand for public transportation users every year.
In figure 7, you can see the magnitude of the share mode of public transportation users. In 2025 the mode share generated is 10% and in 2045 it will be 50%. this is influenced by the magnitude of the journey of people's public transport to the size of the overall journey of people.
Figure 6: Indicated Travel Demand Results and Actual Public Transport Users
Figure 7: Public Transport Share Mode
Figure 8 is a graph of the increase in public transportation needs and the need for public transportation investment needs. The high demand for public transportation travel also affects the need for public transportation. In the graph of public transportation needs, in 2025 4 buses will be needed to serve public transportation users. But on the chart, it continues to grow every year.
Likewise, with the need for public transportation investment. In 2025, the investment required is 16.5 billion rupiahs to prepare the bus facility. The investment needed is determined by the type of bus to be used, but in this study, the bus used is an electric bus, so the investment needed is greater than non-electric buses.
Figure 8: Desired Public Transportation and Desired Public Transportation Investment
Increasing the need for public transportation investment has also increased the assets for public transportation. This is influenced by the amount of investment from the government for public transportation and also the depreciation value of public transportation. In 2025, the number of assets will be 2.5 billion rupiahs. The higher the number of assets will increase the number of public transports now. The amount of public transportation that must be provided (the current number) in 2025 in 1 bus. In 2030, there will be an increase and 16 buses will be provided.
Figure 9: Public Transportation Needs and Public Transportation Investment Needs
The current capacity of public transportation has a value that increases every year, the magnitude of the capacity in 2030 is 11,863,000 people km/year. The high capacity makes according to him the utilization of public transportation itself. In the same year, the number of benefits from public transportation has obtained a value of 3.1 and the value decreased every year.
Figure 10: Current Public Transportation Capacity and Public Transportation Utilization
5. Conclusion
The transfer of the capital in 2025 must certainly be prepared as soon as possible in terms of infrastructure and facilities. Along with the ongoing development of road infrastructure, the government is also obliged to provide the availability of buses for the movement of people who will inhabit the IKN for mobility.
In 2025 IKN residents are still around 27% and the government is obliged to prepare public transportation, especially buses for employee mobility. In the results, it can be seen that the willingness for buses is also still small because there are still few residents who move. As time goes by, the people who move to IKN also increase and their needs have increased. In 2030 the amount of mode share that arises is 20%, and the amount of public transportation that must now be provided is as many as 17 buses with a cost of 81 billion rupiahs. However, the value of public transportation utilization has decreased because the existing capacity is greater than the travel request.
This can also provide a conclusion that the higher the existing share mode or the planned share mode, the government must provide the appropriate budget so that the facilities needed can serve passengers. And if you want to have a high mode share value, the government is also obliged to provide high attractiveness so that the targeted mode share can be achieved and also many people prefer public transportation.
6. Acknowledgement
Special thanks to my teacher Professor Sutanto Soehodho and my team leader Mr. Nanang for helping me to make this research.
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