DOF Economic Bulletin on GDP 10 May 2018
The first quarter of 2018 saw the economy grow by 6.8% on the back of strong
industrial and services output. Industry surged by 7.9% while services, 7%.
Manufacturing maintained its above-average growth of 8%, contributing to as much as 2 percentage points to growth. Construction maintained its above-9%
growth, adding 0.5 percentage point to growth.
From the demand side, household consumption remained robust while
government consumption maintained its double-digit growth. Capital formation resumed its double digit growth as public construction maintained its above-20%
growth reflecting implementation of critical infrastructure projects.
DOF View
Strong macro-economic fundamentals such as strong external position and
ample fiscal space will continue to sustain the momentum for high growth. The passage of the first package of tax reforms will bring in additional resources to fund the ambitious infrastructure plans and greater spending on social services. These investments are game-changing in the sense that they catalyze further investments, which, in turn drive investment-led growth, generate meaningful employment, and subsequently reduce poverty.
With the implementation of infrastructure projects, the motion is set for
investment-led growth.
Table 1 Economic Performance by Type of Expenditure
Growth (%) Contribution to Growth (ppts)
Demand Side 2017Q1 2017Q4 2018Q1 2017Q1 2017Q4 2018Q1
Household Consumption 5.9 6.2 5.6 4.1 4.5 3.9 Government Consumption 0.1 12.2 13.6 0.0 1.0 1.4 Capital Formation/Investment 11.4 8.3 12.5 3.4 2.5 3.9 Fixed Capital 13.8 9.4 8.9 4.0 2.7 2.8 Construction 11.3 5.7 10.1 1.0 0.6 0.9 Public Construction 2.1 21.1 25.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 Private Construction 13.6 1.7 6.8 0.9 0.1 0.5
Exports 17.4 20.6 6.2 9.3 8.6 3.7
Imports 18.7 18.1 9.3 (11.8) (9.7) (6.6)
GDP 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.8
Net Income from Abroad 5.5 3.7 4.3
GNI 6.3 6.1 6.4
Source of Basic Data: PSA
Table 2 Economic Performance by Sector
Growth (%)Contribution to Growth (ppts)
2017Q
1 2017Q
4 2018Q
1 2017Q
1 2017Q
4 2018Q
1
Agriculture 4.9 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 Industry 6.5 7.0 7.9 2.2 2.4 2.7
Mining & Quarrying (17.8
) 5.4 4.5 (0.2
) 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 7.7 7.9 8.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 Construction 9.7 4.3 9.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 1.7 5.5 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 Services 6.7 6.9 7.0 3.8 3.9 4.0 Transportation 4.2 4.9 6.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 Trade 7.3 8.7 6.1 1.1 1.5 1.0 Financial Intermediation 7.0 5.2 7.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 R. Estate, Renting & Business
Activities 7.0 6.6 4.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 Public Administration 5.5 8.5 13.
2 0.2 0.3 0.5 Other Services 7.3 6.3 8.8 0.8 0.6 1.0
GDP 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.8
Source of Basic Data: PSA
Table 3 Selected Fiscal Indicators in % of GDP
2017Q1 2017Q4 2018Q1
Revenues 14.9 15.0 15.8 Tax Revenues 13.4 13.7 14.3 Non-tax Revenues 1.5 1.3 1.6 Expenditures 17.2 18.1 20.0 Fiscal Balance (2.3) (3.1) (4.1) Total NG Debt 41.9 42.1 42.6
Domestic Debt 26.8 28.1 27.6 External Debt 15.0 14.0 14.9 Sources of Basic Data: DOF, PSA
Table 4 Various Measures of Inflation (%)
2017Q1 2017Q4 2018Q1
CPI (2012 base) 2.9 3.
0 3.
9 Household Consumption Deflator 3.2 2.
3 3.
5
GDP Deflator 2.6
2.
0
2.
7 Producer price
index -
1.2 -
0.8 - 1.1 Sources of Basic Data: PSA, DOF
