sectors in their own production. The evidence from the direct output coefficient reveals that the logistics sector is the most important in supporting electricity and the water supply system, followed by logistics itself, and construction. However, these sectors are not identified as significant in boosting and supporting other sectors in the Thai economy.
Generally, all of the nine input-output tables can be analyzed and the results show that the backward linkage effect was higher than that of the forward linkage for the Thai logistics sector. This indicates
that the role of the logistics sector in boosting the national economy is greater than the pulling effect of the national economy on the logistics industry.
However, considering the power of dispersion index or backward linkage index (BLI) and the sensitivity of dispersion index or forward linkage index (FLI) in 2010 display in Table 5, indicate that both BL and FL indices are less than one (BLI <1 and FLI <1). This means that the logistics sector cannot be considered a
“key” or “leading” sector in the national economy(Lin and Chang, 1997), which is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Backward linkage and forward linkage indices for 19 sectors of Thailand in 2010
J O U R N A L O F E C O N O M I C S C H I A N G M A I U N I V E R S I T Y – 2 2 # 1
2018, JAN—APR
JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS CHIANG MAI UNIVERSITY – 22/1
logistics may be used as an input for othersectors in their own production. The evidence from the direct output coefficient reveals that the logistics sector is the most important in supporting electricity and the water supply system, followed by logistics itself, and construction. However, these sectors are not identified as significant in boosting and supporting other sectors in the Thai economy.
Generally, all of the nine input-output tables can be analyzed and the results show that the backward linkage effect was higher than that of the forward linkage for the Thai logistics sector. This indicates
that the role of the logistics sector in boosting the national economy is greater than the pulling effect of the national economy on the logistics industry.
However, considering the power of dispersion index or backward linkage index (BLI) and the sensitivity of dispersion index or forward linkage index (FLI) in 2010 display in Table 5, indicate that both BL and FL indices are less than one (BLI <1 and FLI <1). This means that the logistics sector cannot be considered a
“key” or “leading” sector in the national economy(Lin and Chang, 1997), which is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Backward linkage and forward linkage indices for 19 sectors of Thailand in 2010
26
JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS CHIANG MAI UNIVERSITY –22/1 Table 3.Sectoral forward linkage effect (sensitivity of dispersion index) Year197519801985199019951998200020052010 SectorValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRank 1.Agriculture1.654241.627131.647841.385731.319541.280161.153751.102961.12356 2.Mining and quarrying1.804922.258422.057921.320741.175971.335741.570941.930932.01883 3.Food manufacturing0.897780.874080.984270.8505100.7997110.8112110.7521130.7057130.672713 4.Textile industry1.225051.227151.086961.077280.970391.012980.911390.804380.751311 5.Other manufacturing0.6266160.6151150.6783140.8247110.8134100.8976100.8434100.8014100.82158 6.Saw mill and wood products0.6566130.7129120.6386160.6556160.6097160.6030170.5577170.5366160.511516 7.Paper and printing industries0.859790.934670.837890.889690.975880.966690.925080.7517110.738212 8.Chemical and petroleum industries2.149512.587012.093112.041822.043122.068012.400112.365222.54791 9.Rubber industry0.6563140.5694160.5798170.5246170.5986170.6727150.6179150.4840170.488517 10.Non-metallic products0.6307150.6892130.6616150.6670150.6111150.6409160.5891160.5761150.589115 11.Metal products1.770131.373041.797632.229112.138711.725521.804822.418912.43902 12.Industrial machinery1.146160.850990.865381.081871.247051.096970.948870.867070.83477 13.Electrical machinery and apparatus0.7711110.7310110.7294121.136361.228161.378231.698631.388741.15995 14.Motor vehicle and repairs0.7996100.6840140.7221130.7326130.7354120.7680130.7863110.6646140.623414 15.Electricity and water supply system0.7282120.7579100.7727110.7408120.7160130.7268140.7530120.803990.77009 16.Construction0.5545180.4770190.4666180.4379180.4273190.4409190.3933190.3744190.368719 17.Logistics 0.5421190.5551170.8232100.7269140.6779140.7803120.7436140.7161120.763710 18.Trade and services0.961670.936761.105351.246751.484331.329751.103561.296451.37614 19.Unclassified and bodies unknown0.5655170.5397180.4517190.4304190.4282180.4650180.4470180.4113180.401318 Source: Author’s calculation 27
J O U R N A L O F E C O N O M I C S C H I A N G M A I U N I V E R S I T Y – 2 2 # 1
2018, JAN—APRJOURNAL OF ECONOMICS CHIANG MAI UNIVERSITY –22/1 able 4. Sectoral backward linkage effect (power ofdispersion index) Year197519801985199019951998200020052010 SectorValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRankValueRank griculture0.6287180.6546180.7274170.6852170.6782180.7294170.7293170.7051170.674317 ining and quarrying0.6184190.5937190.7060180.6718180.6799170.7025180.6440190.6376180.659618 d manufacturing0.9255140.9523140.9580130.9332120.9222130.9911120.9631120.9316120.901614 xtile industry1.138661.153941.084661.127561.064271.132641.078951.041081.06998 ther manufacturing0.9422131.0048100.9986111.051881.053581.096561.059761.106271.14875 w mill and wood oducts0.9063150.8791160.9327150.9210130.9251120.9339130.8617150.9184140.897515 per and printing tries1.100071.053391.048691.079771.088761.0221101.037981.016991.04269 hemical and petroleum tries0.9827110.9395151.0005100.9365110.9061140.9178140.9611130.9297130.934913 ubber industry0.9617120.9810131.087751.041891.026691.074471.0070101.0144101.010010 Non-metallic products0.9909100.9949120.9576140.9019150.9031150.9075150.8885140.9000150.944712 Metal products1.138751.123861.138041.155551.177851.0067111.0004111.176341.16974 Industrial machinery1.233731.220221.181621.216231.383811.265721.188641.161151.19583 .Electrical machinery apparatus1.177841.144351.083971.301321.329531.333111.595611.476111.42991 Motor vehicle and irs1.275121.172731.153131.194041.225141.129351.249531.269721.24562 .Electricity and water pply system1.019091.069780.8491160.7957160.7397160.8690160.7531160.7944160.839616 Construction1.060181.072871.073180.9962100.9955101.023391.046371.120061.11827 Logistics 0.8889160.9951110.9855120.9183140.9287111.036881.017390.9444110.950411 .Trade and services0.6536170.6564170.6756190.6468190.6353190.6871190.6463180.6329190.638519 Unclassified and es unknown1.358111.337811.358311.425411.337121.141131.271821.224031.12846 urce: Author’s calculation
JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS CHIANG MAI UNIVERSITY – 22/1
Table 5. Sectoral backward linkage and forward linkage indices of Thailand in 2010
Sector BLI FLI FLI >1 FLI >1 FLI <1 FLI <1
BLI >1 BLI <1 BLI >1 BLI <1
1. Agriculture 0.6743 1.1235 ×
2. Mining and quarrying 0.6596 2.0188 ×
3. Food manufacturing 0.9016 0.6727 ×
4. Textile industry 1.0699 0.7513 ×
5. Other manufacturing 1.1487 0.8215 ×
6. Saw mill and wood
products 0.8975 0.5115 ×
7. Paper industries and
printing 1.0426 0.7382 ×
8. Chemical and
petroleum industries 0.9349 2.5479 ×
9. Rubber industry 1.0100 0.4885 ×
10. Non-metallic products 0.9447 0.5891 ×
11. Metal products 1.1697 2.4390 ×
12. Industrial machinery 1.1958 0.8347 ×
13. Electrical machinery
and apparatus 1.4299 1.1599 ×
14. Motor vehicle and
repairing 1.2456 0.6234 ×
15. Electricity and water
supply system 0.8396 0.7700 ×
16. Construction 1.1182 0.3687 ×
17. Logistics 0.9504 0.7637 ×
18. Trade and services 0.6385 1.3761 ×
19. Unclassified and
bodies unknown 1.1284 0.4013 ×
Source: Author’s calculation
2) Production-inducing effect
The sectoral impacts of logistics investment are shown in Table 6. The significant results show that the total effect of a 1.0 Thai baht change in logistics investment on the output of other sectors was 1.3222 baht and the total production-inducing effect was 2.3222 baht in 2010. The total gross output of the logistics sector was 1.4528 billion baht in 2010. This indicates that the logistics sector induced 1.9209 billion baht of production, totaling 3.3736 billion baht of production into the economy. In addition, the total production-inducing effect of the logistics sector increased approximately 1.4085 times from 0.9388 to 1.3222 during the period from 1975 to 2010.
The top three sectors with the highest production-inducing effects in the logistics sector for 2010 are chemical and petroleum industries (sector 8, 0.4005), mining and quarrying (sector 2, 0.3517), and trade and services (sector 18, 0.1775).
On the other hand, the three lowest production-inducing effects caused by the logistics sector are construction (sector 16, 0.0022), sawmills and wood products (sector 6, 0.0036), and non-metallic products (sector 10, 0.0039).
It can be concluded that increased investment in the logistics sector may provide more help to other sectors, particularly for the chemical and petroleum industries as the highest production-inducing logistics sectors, followed by mining and quarrying. This is because these two sectors provide the consumptive demand to the logistics sector as the main input of logistics production. In contrast with construction—sawmills, wood products, and non-metallic products have the lowest influence on logistics sector development.
3) Supply shortage effect
The sectoral supply shortage effect of the logistics sector is shown in Table 7, providing valuable information relating to
J O U R N A L O F E C O N O M I C S C H I A N G M A I U N I V E R S I T Y – 2 2 # 1
2018, JAN—APR
JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS CHIANG MAI UNIVERSITY – 22/1
Table 5. Sectoral backward linkage and forward linkage indices of Thailand in 2010
Sector BLI FLI FLI >1 FLI >1 FLI <1 FLI <1
BLI >1 BLI <1 BLI >1 BLI <1
1. Agriculture 0.6743 1.1235 ×
2. Mining and quarrying 0.6596 2.0188 ×
3. Food manufacturing 0.9016 0.6727 ×
4. Textile industry 1.0699 0.7513 ×
5. Other manufacturing 1.1487 0.8215 ×
6. Saw mill and wood
products 0.8975 0.5115 ×
7. Paper industries and
printing 1.0426 0.7382 ×
8. Chemical and
petroleum industries 0.9349 2.5479 ×
9. Rubber industry 1.0100 0.4885 ×
10. Non-metallic products 0.9447 0.5891 ×
11. Metal products 1.1697 2.4390 ×
12. Industrial machinery 1.1958 0.8347 ×
13. Electrical machinery
and apparatus 1.4299 1.1599 ×
14. Motor vehicle and
repairing 1.2456 0.6234 ×
15. Electricity and water
supply system 0.8396 0.7700 ×
16. Construction 1.1182 0.3687 ×
17. Logistics 0.9504 0.7637 ×
18. Trade and services 0.6385 1.3761 ×
19. Unclassified and
bodies unknown 1.1284 0.4013 ×
Source: Author’s calculation
2) Production-inducing effect
The sectoral impacts of logistics investment are shown in Table 6. The significant results show that the total effect of a 1.0 Thai baht change in logistics investment on the output of other sectors was 1.3222 baht and the total production-inducing effect was 2.3222 baht in 2010. The total gross output of the logistics sector was 1.4528 billion baht in 2010. This indicates that the logistics sector induced 1.9209 billion baht of production, totaling 3.3736 billion baht of production into the economy. In addition, the total production-inducing effect of the logistics sector increased approximately 1.4085 times from 0.9388 to 1.3222 during the period from 1975 to 2010.
The top three sectors with the highest production-inducing effects in the logistics sector for 2010 are chemical and petroleum industries (sector 8, 0.4005), mining and quarrying (sector 2, 0.3517), and trade and services (sector 18, 0.1775).
On the other hand, the three lowest production-inducing effects caused by the logistics sector are construction (sector 16, 0.0022), sawmills and wood products (sector 6, 0.0036), and non-metallic products (sector 10, 0.0039).
It can be concluded that increased investment in the logistics sector may provide more help to other sectors, particularly for the chemical and petroleum industries as the highest production-inducing logistics sectors, followed by mining and quarrying. This is because these two sectors provide the consumptive demand to the logistics sector as the main input of logistics production. In contrast with construction—sawmills, wood products, and non-metallic products have the lowest influence on logistics sector development.
3) Supply shortage effect
The sectoral supply shortage effect of the logistics sector is shown in Table 7, providing valuable information relating to
29
J O U R N A L O F E C O N O M I C S C H I A N G M A I U N I V E R S I T Y – 2 2 # 1
2018, JAN—APR