SUMMARY OF RISK FACTORS
D- Risks Related to the Offer Shares
3. MARKET OVERVIEW
3.5 Real Estate Development sector in Jeddah .1 Overview
3.4.5 Villa & apartment historical sales prices
Despite the decline in transaction volumes, residential sale prices have remained relatively resilient, increasing 2.2% in 2020 for villas, and 1.7% for apartments.
Table (3-38): Riyadh Apartment Historical Prices
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SAR/sqm 3,709 4,069 3,934 3,345 3,194 3,272
YoY Change 9.7% -3.3% -15% -4.5% 2.4%
Source: Aqar, Knight Frank
Table (3-39): Riyadh Villa Historical Prices
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SAR/sqm 3,871 4,058 3,942 3,639 3,647 3,727
YoY Change 5% -3% -8% 0% 2%
Source: Aqar, Knight Frank
In 2019, residential sale prices remained fragmented in Riyadh, where average sale prices for villas increased marginally by 0.2% YoY compared to a 7.7% decline in 2018. Apartment sale prices fell by 4.5% YoY over the same period following a 15% decline in 2018.
In 2020, we have seen a recovery in residential sale prices in Riyadh compared to the previous year. The average sale prices for villas in Riyadh increased by 2.2% YoY, while apartment sale prices increased by 1.7% YoY over the same period. This trend has been driven by various government initiatives such as the expansion of the mortgage market and increased private sector participation in the housing market.
Saudi Arabia’s residential market has been a key point of focus for government initiatives over recent years with a range of regulatory, finance and supply-side reforms enacted to underpin activity in this sector.
Pre-pandemic, we saw prices stabilise across many cities in Saudi Arabia and this trend appears to be continuing despite the economic headwinds that Saudi Arabia faces.
3.5 Real Estate Development sector in Jeddah
With demand reaching 1.3 million units in 2030, the market gap in Jeddah is expected to reach 383,357 units.
Table (3-40): Jeddah Population
2020 2030
Population 5.1 Million 6.1 Million
Source: Population Statistic
Jeddah’s population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% from 2020 to 2030, increasing from 5.1 million residents to about 6.1 million. This increase in the population coupled with incentives introduced by the government to boost homeownership rates among Saudi nationals from around 60% currently to 70% will generate demand for housing in the city: with an average household size of 4.5, this equates to a demand of more than 1.3 million housing units by 2030.
Table (3-41): Jeddah Villa Sales Price and YoY % Change as of Q1 2021
Villa Apartment
Sales Price (SAR/sqm) 5,023 3,944
YoY Change (%) -6.3% 6.5%
Source: Knight Frank
In Jeddah, villas are the most aspirational housing typology according to YouGov.
Government incentives put in place to boost the mortgage market are effective in enabling young people to purchase homes rather than renting.
The YoY % change in the volume of all residential transactions as of Q1 2021 (includes land and all other residential sub-assets) is 34%, while the YoY % change in the value of all residential transactions as of Q1 2021 (includes land and all other residential sub-assets) is 26%
In Jeddah, average residential apartment sales prices increased by 6.5% to SAR 3,944 per sqm in the year to Q1 2021, whereas average villa sales prices fell by 6.3% to SAR 5,023 per sqm over the same period.
Residential transaction volumes and values in Jeddah increased by 34% and 26% respectively in the year to Q1 2021, a trend driven by a notable increase in the uptake of mortgages provided by banks and financial institutions.
As of Q1 2020, Jeddah’s housing stock is estimated to total 853,373 units and is expected to increase to 890,657 units by the end of 2023. The majority of upcoming supply in Jeddah is focused towards middle-income housing, with North Jeddah increasingly seeing the majority of development activity.
Jeddah’s population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% from 2020 to 2030, increasing from 5.1 million residents to about 6.1 million. This increase in the population will generate a lot of demand for housing in the city: with an average household size of 4.5, this equates to a demand of more than 200,000 additional housing units by 2030
The biggest residential projects currently in execution occupy the high-end mixed use market, with little room to compete. The low end / Single use market is occupied by MOMRAH, providing affordable housing.
According to YouGov survey, it is evident that In Jeddah, villas are the most aspirational housing typology, however apartments are rising in popularity as well. In addition, the influx of young professionals into Jeddah only helps in boosting apartment demand.
In order for people to take up apartments rather than the more popular villa, the property needs to come with its advantages. The most important factors that come into play for deciding on an apartment in Jeddah are the presence of community development in the area, as well as the reputation of the area.
Young people tend to rent apartments because they believe they cannot afford to purchase a residence (either apartment or villa), however the government has put in place initiatives to try and boost the mortgage market, which will help mitigate that problem.
As a result, there is opportunity to serve the mid-end market due to the fact that the luxury market is saturated, and the fact that young Saudis are finding it harder to afford expensive homes.
3.5.2 Disposable income
The growth in average household personal disposable income has generally been unimpressive over the past few years and has exacerbated the rising housing affordability challenge in the city.
Table (3-42): Jeddah Average Household Disposable Income – SAR (Thousands)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Disposable Income 175 174 187 193 181 185 187 190 193 197
Source: Macrobond, Oxford Economics
Household income is a key determinant of affordability and consumer spending patterns.
Average household personal disposable income grew at CAGR of -1.0% between 2010 and 2020 According to Oxford Economics, reaching SAR 181,810.
In 2020, 45.1% of households in Jeddah were within income bands above USD 35,000, this share is expected to decrease, reaching 44.5% in 2030.
54.9% of households were in the lower income bands - below USD 35,000. This proportion of household income bands is expected to witness an increase between 2020 and 2030 reaching 56.5%. This reflect a negative trend, from the perspective of consumer spending and demand for real estate in the city.
3.5.3 Housing supply
Large average household sizes – over five people – is a trend that is observed across much of the Middle East and Africa region.
Table (3-43): Jeddah Total Number of Households (Thousands)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Number of Households 1,010 1,103 1,076 1,078 1,106 1,106 1,141 1,171
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
1,201 1,230 1,260 1,288 1,316 1,344 1,370
Source: Macrobond, Oxford Economics
The average household size in Saudi Arabia stood at 5.52 individuals in 2020, although the figure is lower for Jeddah at an average of 4.62 people per household. This can be explained by a higher share of expats in Jeddah compared to the national average.
Usually, changes within average household sizes tend to be gradual, therefore the average household size for Jeddah combing Saudi and non-Saudi households is expected to reach to 4.50 individuals by 2030.
Going forward, we expect falling household size among Saudis will underpin demand for higher density development providing smaller and more efficient units that are affordable due to a reduction in size rather than a reduction in build quality.
Total number of households in Jeddah stood at 1.0 million in 2020. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of households increased at a CAGR of 3.6%. This growth momentum is expected to moderate to 2.2% between 2020 and 2030, where the total number of households is forecast to reach 1.3 million by 2029.
Based on these forecasts, it is estimated that an estimated 264,342 additional households will be formed in Jeddah between 2020 and 2030.
3.5.4 Housing demand
Despite the challenging market conditions caused by COVID-19, Residential activity in Jeddah remained resilient in 2020.
A trend underpinned by a notable increase in the uptake of mortgages provided by banks and financial institutions.
Table (3-44): Jeddah Number of Residential Transactions
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Number of residential
transactions 32,975 30,298 24,601 20,623 20,336 16,650 24,352 23,715
YoY Change % -8% -19% -16% -1% -18% 46% -3%
Source: Ministry of Justice
Table (3-45): Jeddah Value of Residential Transactions
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Value of residential
transactions (in Million) 54,141 52,144 45,390 28,807 22,621 13,253 18,317 18,327
YoY Change % -4% -13% -37% -21% -41% 38% 0%
Source: Ministry of Justice
We have seen a significant recovery in the number of transactions during 2019, where the number of residential transactions witnessed 46% increase in 2019 year on year, while the value of transactions saw an increase of 38% over the same period.
In 2020, the volume of residential transactions in Jeddah dropped by 3% YoY, whilst the value of residential transaction remained unchanged over the same period.
The recent decision to exempt real estate transactions from 15% VAT and the introduction of a lower property tax, will help to boost activity in the residential market. The introduction of a dedicated property tax will be beneficial to end-users and developers and help the government achieve its aim of increased levels of homeownership and private participation in the real estate sector.
3.5.5 Villa & apartment sales prices
Pre-pandemic, we saw prices stabilise across many cities in Saudi Arabia and this trend appears to be continuing despite the economic headwinds that Saudi Arabia faces.
Table (3-46): Jeddah Apartment Historic Sale Prices
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SAR/sqm 5,037 4,914 4,367 3,725 3,579 3,670
YoY Change -2% -11% -15% -4% 3%
Source: Aqar, Knight Frank
Table (3-47): Jeddah Villa Historic Sale Prices
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SAR/sqm 6,082 6,467 6,064 5,573 5,211 5,093
YoY Change 6% -6% -8% -6% -2%
Source: Aqar, Knight Frank
In 2019, residential sale prices continued to soften in Jeddah, where average sale prices for villas decreased by 6.5%
YoY compared to a 6.1%. While the apartment sale prices fell by 3.9% YoY over the same period. However, in 2020, residential market in Jeddah registered fragmented performance. Despite the decline in transaction volumes, residential sales prices have remained relatively resilient. The average sale prices for villas in Jeddah decreased by 1.6%
YoY, albeit at a slower rate compare to the previous years. Whereas apartment sale prices increased by 1.9% YoY over the same period. This trend has been driven by various government initiatives such as the expansion of the mortgage market and increased private sector participation in the housing market.
Saudi Arabia’s residential market has been a key point of focus for government initiatives over recent years with a range of regulatory, finance and supply side reforms enacted which aimed to underpin activity in this sector.