2030
! "# $% &#
' 1 )
36 789 (:%
; <= >
25 + 04 + 1439
;./
<= @9>
; 10 + 08 + 1439 ./
:*+,
; ABC3 "9DE F> 7 GH ,I3J $% K:3 L M(# NO P QR/ S/
. !.TE ,U. I3J
. "TV ; IBC QR/ W# (XY Z"9 S## ,K> DE IBC QR/ [=9E !E [# I%T 73 \2030
]K=. S3^#.P .>
3 73 _" @#` 3 ,ab I3J a !"# cd @"V # eR [:f . . @."V gR$ ,IBC QRh i9E(E jk
,2030
l.m S.D9E [.# no9 IP ]k#= 33 ,I3J ; 9D ep F> qB9 c%r NO mO ,M/Y ]3( 73 _#=sE 3 t P QR/
\ ,- . ,uU ,I3J :
"rT#Pv ,$H ,":H
\
_________________________________________________________________________
________
Reality of Saudi universities governance and their role in achieving the kingdom vision 2030
Adel A. Alshammari(1) University of Hafr Al Batin (Received 12/01/2018; accepted 26/04/2018)
Abstract: The objective of this study was to identify the concept of university governance, the reality of applying its indicators in Saudi universities, and to present a set of proposals that support the adoption of this indicators. And ended with an impact on these indicators in achieving the vision of the Kingdom 2030. The study used the descriptive method that was adopted by the analysis of thecurrent higher education and universities system, as well as analysis of the vision of the Kingdom 2030, and its programs and objectives, in addition to the direct observation of the administrative reality applied in the universities, supported by the results of studies and research that were related to the subject of this study.
Keywords: Universities, Accountability, Transparency, Participation, Autonomy.
_________________________________________________________________________
________
1 w.o9 ." I.P 78.9 (.:% .36 @"$ ,""# qp ; xH y#Pz
[
\ 789 (:%
, U " ( ,
e{ |3(
31991
(1) Associate professor in educational administration, Vice rector of graduate study and research, University of Hafr Al Batin.
Hafr Al Batin, Saudi Arabia, Postal Code: (31991)
} p { :
[email protected] e-mail:
"
: .K# U. " ( ST8Y
2030
@ 73 q6 %(3 7#
e.=#
e.#>v
,[=
.=#3 ]3( %8 DD A"8 ; @V
;..=E .."W#6 ..#>
@..T#=E ZY .. !..P
T# ~ M3 NO
\
yO j=.E ZY q.93 Y @. ez 7 v WK t T" t
dWO ,K" $H M(8z @9> 73 t
$ / 6 K#= r3 \
; _6E u6 =/ 73
.#% 7.3 ."> @.:3 @H. ( QR/ (8 z !A#U.3 Mr#. L. M(.8z @$ x
!K=3 D K !h 8=
\
"P"U... ... IU...PC3 S...d$ yO Y qB.93 " CU.3 CU3 "W#6v #>v
'Y L. .K# #3 .( QR/ R":=E 7 qB93
!"# IUPC3 Z ;F>
, u.P !".#
Y .
a , E 73 / u| FDs QR/
" CU
\
QR./ ; Iu.6 [# Ir":# o:# ZO ,!".# IU.PC . e"b x (
QR " L uP IUPC
ZY . 3
,_" ZE i9E(. 3 Y
IU.PC QR./ I.6(^
F3 KTE 3 ( I6"#% IDE
\
I9D# #P QR/
IUPC3 IRY ( 7.. w..o9 ..od q..9 eU.. a.. !"..#
/Y "TV ; r $H3 K=3 @ [# @kP K
..9 ,..ADE w..o9E [..# I.."T# ..3>O NO I
( QR/ ; / ,
/( @ I.3J (C3
... ... ..."TV ; 78... :"o...f 2030
p ,"d ,2017
" 20
\
_..#K6 7..3 ; ..$o a .. (C.. Y
a.. !"..# IU..PC3 ..
..=T Z..E ZY q
6 " ^P !".# Z C` qO ; $b
'(# [# I Io# K6 ,a
(. 78. ; [ wo9 a !"# lD>
,
W$
Y 9# q b
I.9D#3 73 q% $
W#..v ..3 qJ.. ..KD I..3J W#..
( I3J $% ,"
\2017
!".# IU.PC3 ; .$b lm3 @=
.9$ .c% 3 ( 78 ; a
w.o9 7.3
,P {. ZY 7. I.P 73 (# 3 ZY vO
."Y .$CE P QR/ !E [# _6 z 73 Km3 "#
\
P E 7. d
Iu.6 [.# 2017
Z..=
I..3J ..$b ..T3 e(..cd ..8O
3H. q.J I9D#3 um ; KT"9DE IBC3
[# IP n%Y 73 $% uT#P NO S/
@%(3 /=3 w"% 73 I3J IBC3
KT"9DE
ZY NO S.. ,3H.. q..J I..9D#3 u..m ; .# . .3#3 #$ I3J $%
@. Z
,..3J ; ..9$ @..^ 9U..# ..T ZY ,@..
3 L IBC 73 !TE NO SK#d qJ I9D#3 um ; KT"9DE
\
Z: P ;
Z= 2017
@":# 8O
"To# I3J ; $b
,2030
NO S./
3J $% I9D#3 M(E '(#P ~r 73 I
. I.9D# .K#3u3 3 ,$b "9DE F>
, 2030
..>
..E ..$b ..93 ZY NO S..fE
"To# U"k I9D#3 . S3.> ,2030
...KY ,I"...f# 7...3 :
...$b ..."9DE q
d..T I<..# @..E ~r.. 7..3 I..3J v q ,."b ; (..z .cdz 7.3 q:#.P
$b ~ ; o6= I3J
\
e"J 73 @$ > _#K6 73 Y
".P
2015
Z= P
; .$b y.= % od
a !"# IUPC3
, I U.:E !.TE NO S/
; $o : !c= k ( I% B
# IUPC3 e(. .8O !.TE ,[ a !"
."9" ; a. !"# IUPC3 $b ~ \
G.E [# k 73 P S3> >
$o : !c=
\
S3> W$
d :
Z.= P 2015
TD=3 I36 ; q"`( $b 93 "9DE F>
3( 3 "$z I"T (cd K6 73
− E
T3
, .93 ."9DE "Y M(E r 73 S %
¡PC uz Uo# A9D#3 $b \
S.fE
,DP#3 6 u6 $b 93 "9DE F> ZY NO I9D# Iu6 W=" ,6 q 9$ 6 Iu6 "z 9$ 6 I>
q
\
S3> sY $b F> 7 wo9 ; ~.=3
[=(
Z= P 2014
.$b ."9DE F>
."$z .p .#¢" us.Y (.cd .K6 73 36 ; 3 3p
"3r.Pp .P 7 £
,
.$b ."9DE F.> ZY .Kk#d I(K¤Y J
.3
DP#3 6 To#3
> ( x=/ ZY ,
"k%O
7..3 .. S3..> ,..K"¥ ..P I ..¦#3 .KY I".f#
: O ..f I<.E jk. ..f
|.O $b 9 Ip
uH.dO ,.h @.
# T#U3 ZJ
\
(..: ..> _..#K6 7..3
Z..= ..P 2013
!"..# IU..PC3 ; ..$b I..V ; a..
DU − . I." ".P .%
.#>v
q| ; p
, ,]k#= 73 P SfE
KY : ,(#U wo# I3J iD T#
,.KT"9DE .3 7.3 .$# 9P=3 I" 6 7 I" 6 9U uU TX ':^d CU..
e R.. ..3r Io"..m# !..TE 7..3 o
\ I.9D#3 q".`( .$b K: @"V ;
.£ §3 S3> ¨ I3J ; _T"9DE
2011
P Z=
P
""V K:
$b q".`(
I9D#3 _T"9DE
; I3J
¨
SP , wo9
7..
I..":
..(:
..K:
o
$ , ..8p
["/...:
, I...9D#3 ..."TV
...$b q"...`(
I..3J
( L..
u..m ..3 ..KK6 7..3
IrH..3 \
S3^#..P ..P
]K=..
[:..f
"..o#
, S..fE NO
ZY I..9D#3 .."TV
..K:3
$b q"`(
I3J
(
@#E <=
.TX
..$b ,
@..E
d..T I<..#
..c=
I3 ,
9#
(b ."$z uU.
.%Y
!/Y ."
; q."b ."3J ,
us.T
U:
K"
\ 7..3 @..$ (..6Y _..#K6 7..3 ..P e..Td3
Mungiu & Dusu, 2011
I.3J ."$b W"."TE
S¦ "d3 ( "3b
36 43
/|= w"% 73
."$b ,[8(T. !b ,"$z p
@# ,"$z ,
q% =U gy \
S:H$ >
@. !".c=E ; ."3cd IrH.3 .6 7 ]k#=
"3J q"b
|E uU. .cdY u= ; @H: NO
I3J 9Po
\
j"m# £ ; ; .$o qJ ~`z
z .Vv ~ @.9> 7.3 h M !"# ~ .> ;!".# .P"P (.DE ; .K:"¤E ":"$ j"mE "U [dv
Lange & Alexiadou, 2007
r".V
WK#P I(K¤Y ,"UPC $b ~`z "":E $b "9D# 3 T3 x=/ ZY
b
; .6 ."#d
CU. © '(3 "¦E n%O 73 M
IUPC QRh
\ a. !".# IUPC3 $b F> R/ ZO
ZY 9
¥O x=/t L
_.6E q Iv`O 6
; $b 93 "9DE QR/
,IUPC (Kc
.>:E
NO .T 9 QR/ [=9E ZY L . @.3Y W#.P
.KkY ." 7.3 .| .K( .KDD 3J A6(ª q6 7 GH W$ ,
.> q 6
" ( I3J f. U. 3
;
]k#= T§ eR @H $b 93 "9DE [=9E gy 73 D _#om Y W$ ,
.: .P 7.3 @.$
2015
[=( ,
\2014
u= t 9P 3 L ,
@.¤ ; G.m
.93 [.=9E
S> ; ,U I3J ; AK6E $b I..# !..TE NO ..P3 ..6b _.." {..E eR..
a !"# IUPC3 $% ; o6=
eU.
( I9D# #P K./z .T"TV
QR./ «.E ;
.. £ ; ..P ; I..3J ..$% .."$#
,( QR/ M/Y "TV @9U. @s.Y 7 GH
[=9# TE [# IPW R/
I3J ; c=
\
0" ! :
.( .9$ . IUPC3 [P 8O ; KT"TV L @ ,
!".# q So.m Y
2017
lD> "Y [=8 #>v "=# _#>r !"#
\ W$
.. I..`Y ..
2030
7..3 .. NO 2016
F.m Ks. ~ .=# ,!"# D9E( I%rfp
, IU.PC QR./ I6(ª (¬ ~ =# W="
,
g..E (.. Y 7..3 ,@.. U.. _..#=E ZY .. ..3 I%rfp : .P .od [U ®
I.6(ª . q.
I6"#% a !"#
."d3O MK#.P ,U
@s.Y 7.m 7.3 @>z L I36 ¯ j9E ZY .. ~..o .." ..36 200
\2030
g..E 7..3
I%rfp .¢" ; F." !"# ( E sY
9P=3 ""E ,
[ wo9 " q
, F"HE
l p
# v ,
"# $< "=E ,
uTEv
!".# U.=3 I.K3 IT ,
.f(: .%EO G..#ª .. @..T=# ; ..d ( ..9D @.."/E q..p
""# IU \
. 7.3 u.6 >
. . ]3(.
2030
[3.b @. .$% |.|E ]3d(
, 7.3 .$O
"z eR. @H. AU.PC3 .$% [=9E
.D9E( $b 93 73 °D b "TV 7s "rT#.Pv .d ( $H. uU. ":H p
\ @. ; $b cd "z "$E
.cd ."=# .#>v Z CH (>Y ep®
$%± r3#3 Ws KU.:d .( ; @ UP3 Z
,2030
\2016
[=9# IUPC3 @ q SK6E W$
QRh U =3¬ @9U @sY @ eR $b cd ]3.d{ .( Iu. ,K./Y ."TV od ( S.6 eR. [3b @ $% ||# @3#3
@.":E _/Y 73 .AWK3 !U.E ; I.KJ " CU.3
R":=# jU @H ² uU 7
.
,2030
\2016
IU..PC3 Z.. .. IU..PC3 ..E F..3 IUPC !/Y 73 E I3J # a !"#
FDsE [#
,.( QR/ ; "% 3/
[.K
³Y O |$(3 [.# .3r e<9 ~
( J @ P I6"#% F3 #E
\
NO ..6b I(.. _..6# R../ 7..3 ..>rDd IU.PC3 $E ZY q
# I.DE a. !".
. . M/Y ,2030
7.3 .3|% ~r. 7.3
M/Y "TV L @E [# Iu(6p I%rfp QR/
(
\ Sd$ yO [.=9# I(.>Y .> 2030
.$b S6 ,/R":=E KT"9DE = $b cd Z. ;K/Y "TV L #P [# 3 ]3{ %Y (.3Y . a. !".# IUPC3 ; c= R/ [=9Et ´ eR S> ; 7sEµ
3/ c= R/
ep @. d L E [# 9 73 Q(DE
\ .dWO ,$b c= "z QR/ 73 >rDd
x=/ Z w%9 73
£ 3/
.$% .c=
O ="P I3J K"
Iu6 ;K/Y T§
7 GH# P QR/
$% IBC3 "9DE F>
3J L UE [# I%T !TE ,U I
.."$E NO v..f ,..K"=9E (..XY
IBC.. QR../ W#..
/ "TV ; (
\
L u=
9.P .3 QR./ H.3 .V 7.
"# ¢Pz P :
−1
( 3
?I3J $o
−2
IBC.3 F.> .3 I..3J ; .$b
U
? −3
I%T3 3 IBC3 "9DE
$b [.#
E . . ."TV ; I3J @":E ; !KU
?2030
−4
(XY 3 W#
IBC3 I3J ; $b
"TV ; U
(
?
0" 12 :
F9=E eR. lm "Y 73 P QR/ "Y
=E
# ,$b / ,_
Y ~ "
eR.
S.o _."
/ ,I3J # a !"# IUPC3 mO
NO F..3 ..K=3|E r..Dd
.. ..
,2030
( QR/ M/Y "TV Q I3J
\
."Y gy NO Ms .Kk#d
!.T# .#
; .$b IBC.3 ."9DE F.> 7. jm E I3J @H. .K"=9E L. U.E [# I%T
X.E .$CE [.# .z '(#P NO vf ,@sY IBC QR/
. . ."TV ; @H. 2030
c= R/ [=9E q $C eR W#. ,
; _.k93
I3J @ I#U3 F"¥
\
0" 3"2 :
3 NO P S/
:
−1
I3J $% K:3 M(E _#"/3
\
−2
.$b IBC3 "9DE F> 7 GH
U I3J ;
\
−3
!.E [.# I.%T 7.3 !TE
[..=9E IBC..3 ..$b
.. W..
@..":E ; !KU
"TV ; I3J
\2030
−4
7 GH (XY
"9DE IBC3
$b
;
I3J U
;
"TV
2030 .
0" "
: ..P I¨..#>
L..
U.. I..3J
f Z "3b
\
0" 456 :
− 8
University Governance
:
@H "%rDfv I3J $% I:(E I M(E ,P QR/ ; ©":#U3 k(6O
. ."
: ].
z L.. ..T eO uU.. ":H.. .. R..
qO ; ..>r e y F.."¥ $H..3 "rT#..Pv (.D# "TV 73 K= eR @H 3J Z C`
I6(^ uz q6 ZWm |"# q(
\
− :2030
{E rDfv ; (
E 7 .V ,@9T#U. ; Z. ZY . I
9T#U. K.` c= IK6E \
G.(E 7.
"k(6O 2030
: D q" ""EP
; ."=# #>v Z CH K= 7Y @( Y 25
[./ ".PPY .£ .XrX 73 D=E ,2016
: rPp (
,q.k( W#.Pv qT ,[3
.£ XrX L #E ,;(¦J F>
(.Y [./
.D 78 ,(/| #>v ,e"b F#
\
R":=# ]3{ 73 7s#E W$
L @E [#
"TV K/Y A3|#
, NO @Td KY 73 [#
T# ~ M3
< =E #> 3
\
0" 9:;
: "..o# [:..f ]K=.. ..P S3^#..P yO .P M./Y T§ ZY 7 eR ]K= Q9#
!.E .> ,_3^#.P _T"9DE 7U%Y 3
&<",80<
L.
_..k _..E(cd B _:..f ..$b ..cd _. .T# I" z NO l6(
, @."o# Ss.Y
73 gR$ ,_EvUE wo9 M/Y · W H>=
~r ."> IPW ; uP $b !cd = ,0
I.P no9 NO l6( Y ," I3 [#
So
.dJ R./
\ .# .T g.y NO .mO
T kT IPW _#H>=3 ; w%9 .c= .%
L I3J ; $b !".# . .cd 6(3
7 rs ,_" q# jk I3J a q{
Q9# _ "^H 8> ?@
w."% , O @¦H. _.d
."$Y .f=3 q. .TE ,.36 @."$ =3 !.K !.T# ".mO q|."3 P j= R/ ,O Y qB9 c%r ~r 73 P q(/c
\
0" 9B,C :
L K#¢PY P ]k#d '(#P !#"P a# o=
:
$8# %DE
&F &G8 80"
: 8 8
%
? 4 9#..Pv ..K6 ..c=$ ..$b I(..K¤
IUPC ; ep ,
.>r _.#: eR ."3(
.P ( u.P( . "9U ,
I.PW u.P
p , . _.6 .""c=# !"/:3 °"
,G<
\2017
d..T 7..3 ..3c=$ ..$b IY.. ..>
..= ,$<.. I.." ; !o#..E [..# ..T W.$ ,F# j °of $< >r K=m (c=
.> IW".# d.T 7.3 .$ 7.3 $<. 7. [.# ."D IPW p
qu: $< M/Y "TV ~ ³Y °R6 ,
"9E
I..3|#v ..% Z ; F..# I..DE .."ddT
Gregory, et. al, 2002, p7
\
T So9fY
$b 7.3
I.m .o
L
~ 6
~WY $
73 IUPC IWc=
"
@3
=f .T=
,a . g.=9
,a . .c=3
Z # e.#>v ."=#
,./ j9.fY
x.=/
xY 73
"z IWc= QR/
$b
;
%O >(
L K(
K#DHdY \
@ ZO
93 uU.
":H.
/|=
[#
K=s.#E .$b
So9.fY u|.6
7.3
I<...#
d...T
;
!...c3
~ ...
...3T#
,e(3
\2017
Z ...# ..."=# ...c=3 (...(TE ...
e#>v
(Organization For Economic Cooperation
and Development - OECD)
Z.=
.$% .93
I$<
(Principles Of Corporate Governance)
..$% M(.. eR.. ,..K: R..h M.. ~ Y $<. qO >r !"c=E !"E I$<
KkY
OECD, 2004
\
[.# I.:(# 7.3 . .K¤ 73 !(
$b K:3 S =E ,
G(E L :E 6 v _dY vO
9U.. F.6( ,F.."J _." ..:# .%3 NO g..y ;
.K6 @. (. @ (: ITD= Mr#
G(E Fm S % _
e.#> D=3 S=E yO ,
[W#6 Y }d> Y
\\\
H. ~. @"9.P L ,
.K:
.3 I3^#Pv V NO e#>v @ T F.E . FE r 73 !# [#
y. I."
U..PC q(X..# q(XC.. M(..8z ..$ L.. (..T
Matthews, 2015
\ .c= .T $b S( W="
.K/ U.PC .P ¸ "PE [W#6v
Bradshaw and Fredette, 2009: 124
\
(. $b I:(E 7 (c= ©¦
:#^
.K" .:# $H.3 !.P> x.=/ ZY vO ,
.KY ,I.6 W=.Y $o "PPY 9$ F"J
$H ,"rT#Pv ,uU ,":H !
\
(..: .. ..>
..$b j..3r3 2013
. :#^ A:(E '(#P q"`(
L. ." >( i s. cdz 73 ,IU.PC uY
R.":=# u qp I>r i9m ,Z # @3# NO eCE T(D j °ofY uU p ":H Y93 L "$#
\
IU.PC3 NO .$b 7 wb @T#d T K: R/ K¤ Sd$ ,!"#
b _E
$o ~ z G"=# ~r 73 lDT R/ ; xr$ _m eR "3J ,1983
_" ~ =E w"%
K./z I.3J V ":"$
, R.":=E .":"$
QR./
.f ,I.3J .h .E [# T(D ,M/z KTTV [# Idp (. . q.93 ]3.d(
# |$(3 ,[DP# @3
\2011
O u..6 W.dO I.3J ..$% .K:3 .K¤ Z QR./ _.6E S. 3 Sd$ [# Io# 8^"
,I3J K=3
U.= a. !".# . 9$3
"
\ F. .8$ "U. R./ ; .$b {.E
{.. ..T# G.."# .."¦# NO .."3J U..PCµ µ @/Y $H3
.#v ; .>r e y .3J
.9>(3 ; ,K#H.>=3 I(.T I".f# "f !"..> |..|E ; ,9..Po !".."T# ; ,I..d
e(: ¢#Pv 7 # v "8(T
e(H ,
\2012
S3.> I.3J $% "/3 Z" @6Y 73
(# 73 @.=/ .K( w"% ,K: R I:
Henkel, 2007, P87
73 !c=E E [# (D
v G.(# Rh [/ ,a !"# IUPC3 r _#T(8 @ ":" @ ,_ !# W !#A
\
.." ..$b (..(TE (.. W=.."
(Global
Governance, 2017)
I..3J ..$% Z..
[..=E
T(D wV ,"ER qp "8(T $H 3J h E [#
\
!".# n.o9 e".P¬ |.$( (. _.#K6 73 |"3 ; [3J #
(Asian Centre for Research
on University Learning and Teaching, 2009)
ZY
I" @"/ @ 3J $%
(T y DP
7":#U 3 sT ~r 73
\
W="
~ % Z3
Zaman, 2016
.K:3 j"mE
a !"# ; : $b '(#.P ~r. 73
_D F3 ! 73 |3 [=9E L TE [# Kk
@ 3 ; l=# ,"rT#Pv ,]k#=
\
~%
/3 Z"
"3J $b "
s.Y .$C
Qr3 7 ¹ 2009
r 73 !# T(8
,A"$ ," K3U>Y qO ,3J DHdY _"6E ,.3 .AK6E ""EPv KDD R":=E #3 q6 |" L |$( 3cd "3J $b E W$
.."3J qp F..3 ,..=# L.. q..T ..3 ,
I."¬ L. W#.v Z "rT#.Pv L. co qº |$(
\ ». M( W$
I.3J ; .$b 2013
W I3J uY !V [# 9 "9DE
./|d ,I¨.# o.f ,I.K6# 3rP T§
7s.. ,I"$U..
uU.. ":H.. .."TV
L. 3J o3 ¦ ,F"J @9> 73 $H ..¸ ,uz (..DE NO eC.. W.. ..(: j..
M(8z F"¥ j3
\
(. j.m T U. I:(# '(#P ZO r^#.P 7.3 7. ,K#"/3 I3J $o µ
.o= L. . @3.` G(E ; _."=9E _.T"9DE (.
a.# .o= L. U I3J .(8 ]K=.3:
,..3J qO _.."6E _..r 7..3 !#.. @..
..§
I>r
7.3 . .8O ; ,:#^ /=
7sE [# dT ,$H.
.":
,
":H.
,
QR/ V w"o ,"rT#Pv ,uU F.>3 9
F.."¥ Y M(..8z
Iy ,..3J @.. ..>r
_6E od !/uY .3 .8O @ ,U= |"#
K6 3J @ @
\
73 '(#P ,sY 9P 3 .$b .93 S. =E [.# I." z IP
I3J ; / 3 Kk
,e(H.
2012
,(...:
2013 Jaramillo et al, 2012
State
University, 2000 Mississippi
; l.6( NO .mO
.>D9$ .3T# ~ . © ; 3^#U NO .$% ³."> .>D ,." z "rT#Pv ³">
,a g=9 [">p ]3d{ K%(8 [# I3J ..3 Z ..# ..c=3 7.. q.. ..$b IBC
"=# e#>v
OECD
q."J IPW $ ,
;qo# I36 ; I% T
.P QR./
IBC3
$%
W I3J :
−1
M../z ..P( .. ..8p [..#
[(E
¢"9
"
"6 3
\
−2
...:
...p ...""c=# ...": qu
"<#
\ −3
a. .3J uY 7. p ":H
a
\ −4
>( uU
\
−5
"6 " $H
\
−6
"rT#Pv
\
%DE
$8#
8 &G I8J 80"
: 8 8
KG
? L
>
. 7 GH @9 .9 ZY 7. eR.
_
(.Xz ,U. I.3J ; .$b cd "9DE P eR p
"
;ADE K/Y ( L =
'(#..P 7..3 .. v ; ..$b IBC..3 F..>
!..T# jU.. eR.. @H.. U.. I..3J R/ (DE NO TE [# I%T L UE ,F>
o6d $% ¢" µ
\
!##..P 7.. .. 6p ~CU.. R../
~r.. 7..3
u(T#P IBC3 b
$ a. !"# cd ;
jk. I<.E 7.3 _=s.E 3 ,ab I3J ³W. [.T"9D# F.> NO mO ,I=#U3 !cd ok _E<E c= R
_, .P I# >
. 6O . S. [.# #U IBC F> o
~ z P ~CP \
.P QR./ O ~r _dY Z"9 73 v !.E [# J I3J cd l <3 qU3 If ."TV ; .PPY Z#.P [.# ,(C3 K= Zrp U.E [.# .$b .93 7.3 I.3J
.(/6 Ir.E qU. QR./ S=s.E yO ,K"=9#
I3J ; $b cd [=9# PCE \
KG
&F : M8, 3"8F 80 N8 8OE
P DQ >" RS M# T U
[.# .¢"9 ./ .$o BC$ 8p
=s.#E W. ;I.3J K" @E d.> !.cd 7.3 _
.3 s.Y ,".P"P I.K6E I>r I<E M/Y P 73 KU:= I3J QR/ _#P
""EP iD \
.P @."V ,.¢"9 QR./ !.K ~r 73 ,""E..Pv i..D M../z ..P( ..(
."¦# NO I.3J 6% 3 7 GHd ZY 7 .$b I9D#3 P=#E ¢" L U eR ..Kk93 ¼.P(E \
..K" @..E [.# ..¢"9 NO (c=.
73 73 / 3 NO l6( ,U I3J .dJ 73 L w%9 G> ;M/Y P eR. 8º om E [DE ZY 7 [#
QR/ _" !c#=E .o= L. ./(O 7. ,I.3J
a#
:
− ½.9E BC. R./ ; _. H. .3 ( Y 73
q. B.93 .89E U. I3J ,!".#
a.. !"#.. ..T# ..K="d> ..K#cdY W#..
.3cd gR. !".# q S.m > ,_Er":E _#P r3#3
# cd I.3J a. !"
_ok
u.P I.3J @ # 3 @$ 7s# ,
Z. R. ,.p Y ." Y ."$z dJ ; .# .3 U. I3J @ 8p _9.` ""E.P 7.3 .D= ,e|$( i"D^# cd
|#E w"% , I3J q%3 I3J
q 7 q I<# l9E \
QR./ 7s.#E
; ~ 73 9$ > ~%z Y ; I<#
eY .KkDO Z I.3 T"> @ Ir":E F<E 73 K9P= 3 "# ; \
NO g.y .> .>
; u.P (.D# ."¦# L. I3J q> >(
,jk. I<# Y @$" Y ]3{ Y cdz L. .#E .3J ZY d ¨b v ~ @"9P L M¨.# F"D#U.E v ,[3b a ! @#
I.KJ 7.3 T9U.3 3P( =9 vO A"d|"
Z q.6 ]3( no#P F"D#UE v Y W$ ,"
Y ."E I(.> «E S> Iy ; ,q l6(
qB93 [3U T 73 3J ; " I"T ~|
q. S.d W$
q ³Y.E W=." ,.c= 7.3 23
q. S.d W$ "3b I3J @$ !"#
c= 73 13
\
− ; ..P( ..( ..6( ..9#
F..>
.P . x.=/ ZY U. I3 "P(
,. @H. I.3 T#3 $H3 ZE E js# "> o: ,"T# "3 !U#E ~.`Y F."¥ .P=E ZY 7 3 ¾" Iu6 Y
Y w.o9 Y .# L. |.$( eR uP !"#
T"9D# !"#
eY = I3J @kP (KcE ! ,[
. ,Iv. QR./ 7.3 .3 ~. ; |"$(E Y |"
wo9 L K#P ; I|$ [# ¿9 g 36 |"# L |"$(E x=/ ZY À%r yO ,# v [ ~. gy ¨% Z "# $H "U=#
" Sd W$ ,3 gR$ ,P g 36 _
; I.3J © I|$ W" ;||9 g 36 I|.$ [# "3rPp 3J$ K L K#P
"3r..Pp I..P ~.. L..
\ z !# V W=.." ..Á
.. . gR..$ ,I.3 q.J ZY 2030
V ($Y > ($Y P =9#E eR "9 Km(¦
x..` ZY _.." S..9X eR.. S..> ; ,_..T"TV ..(E U.= G.m NO Â: hH#3 P ; I3J \
." I .¦# F.3 .P( QR./ U#E ZY W$
..K3 L.. IY(..8 [..# Iv..o# I#U..
NO I.3J ~.T#d z .¦E @.¤ ; I3J
%(3
#v
\
.3J Q.#E eR. !".# .cd V ZO .D @HE ,I3J $% ; 3/ PPY @H
( Y 73 xr$ /8 [# "d:"$
[.# I:"=#
w."% ,. #U.3 L. j6d y=$ S3^#P
,."o I.36 .K=3 ;IU.3 NO I3J G=f
X ,"TE (Y jP eR (3z ,"=K3 "T"9DE
F3 K/Y 3u3 L ,K#P L |"$ 3 @.$ ; q(.# .T .V NO mO ,P( gE =# #>v I6"#%r T G"=E
.(Jaramillo et al, 2012 , P20)
G"=# R/ u6 >
3J cd qU3 ; (C.3 .f eR. .J I
@..":E ; Q _..#" (..T °o..fY 7..3 ..$O I3J $%
\
− 7.3 STDd T I3J M/ # W"
,!"# q K#m [# 3 M/z @"9P L
d ~
L P g 36 M/Y %Y
|.|E
( I>
# , ; u.6 .3 F.3 M. R/
M/Y q
d eR L
F
#U.3 I.6(ª
!"..#
W..
..T§
..3u F..3
I..9D#3 ,.."=#
I6"#%
F#
\ F.3 .3 M/z QR/ :#E
SU.E [.# U. I.3 "T# P(
."Y .$C .3 ./ ,."T# ~H "3 q.6 .P . M/z QR/ "f qO K:"=E 3J I3W#/ 73 D=E \
L. .$C Ã
3 / ;KUE U I3J M/Y "3 ,.( ; Iu.6 [.# M./z g.E 7 Kr#
%..m ..> ..V (..$Y "..f S3..> [..#
7.3 u.6 T ,MK 7.m
./Y M .(
.f
!"#
.P q.:
.
!".#
I.9D#3
.P
@
u6 , 73 K/Y sY
_"6E
°r.D .od
I"
":"¤
"=K 9.P=
, q .$C .Ã
q.J I .¦# q(3 ,u# I" QR/ V .6% s.Y .$C .Ã ,e @H @ U
"b ""EPv K/Y ; (c= qp I3J \
. (.DE L. ( Sd sY .":"¤
@.
U3 IU i ( L $C eR (3z ,["E @H @ P F> ; %# Gk¤ ""#
"> ($Y q > ($Y
\
cd qU3 6(3 ZO (.KcE J I3J
M./z P( ( 8p ¦ 3W#/
.3 ~r. 73 gy (Kc ,3J KsE ZY [#
q ; u6
I.36 NO I.3J S:=.f [# 3
q L $C eR (3z ,"T"9DE ""E "o
""EP M/Y P u=
@. q6 I
|."$(E (.$Y Z.E K:"=.E Kd #E 36 IBC3 [=9# PC Q R/ ," V I3J ; @ @H $b \
; . I.3 .J .c= 6 Y W$
@H :#ª ZE E q6 @ ¢" c= qU3 .y ,!.T .c= 7. @3$
. no#.P g
!.P( .3J ; ." ."6( @ eR u=3z .3 ~r. 73 K" @ ¢" · , 3 P"U .3 ,M./Y 7.3 _s. 3 I""EP 73 _P(
I.3J Z. .$C R/ ,@ jk !cd 73 Q(T ,A" CU.3 @.V ; .9$ .V .3Y U± u.=
7.3 |3 j"#E T#U3 q6 @ ¢" ; KDDt
"$z p (b
\
I Y W$
7.3 q .9$ 3|% 2030
.K" W. . I.D> @.$ SDY [# Iu(6p P= Ä= ¢"A ~r 73 (b 73 |3 I3J ABC3 $b 93 "9D#
L. .v R/ ; ,
/ 6 $b " Å"U (T °ofY =>
.d @.3 ( Y 73 ZY $C 73 ,Kk93 @":E . ."T"T% .=> .6 .$b .93 "9DE K: Rh K" (T °ofY
\
I88J KG88 :
88E 88?;, 88#- V=88-
W, U ..": qu..: BC..3 F..> M(..E 7..
U. I.3J ; "<# p ""c=#
L gR D9E( ½T= 73 '(#P ~r 73 a# o=
:
− I..3J ; ep @.. L.. ..¦
. j.m ["E.P i".D^# Q.T# U _r 73 7
,I.3J 73 / 7 3J |""
7.3 . $Y > , q(:=3 T#U3 "^` (Kc ."9DE ." _.6E q $ I>3 6 IP U I3J ; ["EPv i"D^#
!.
,_d
;2011
,!U.
2015
@.6 eR. (.3z ;
q . Z .= %9 73 $
[.=9E .od [U.
["EPv i"D^# "K=3
,[Xb
\2011
i"..D^# .."z !"..# q 7..3 ..$O l <.3 q. I(.>Y a. !"# ; ["EPv
!".# "9T#U.3 .D .O NO MÆ eR q" ""EP D "f ~r 73 [3J
U¯ #
.P( .( .V F.3 ,3 7<
.P3 ]k#d "TV q L |$(E [# M/z ." q( L U= ;
,!".# q
\1432
\18
− @.$"/ .6 U. I.3J xHE
Y A. Y .K3%z 9# Z hH#3 O / ¾9DE ,A3W#/
U. [.# ."T# @$" QR
.E @.$" QR/ ~8 "#d qp ; "8(> 9 A#U3
\
− q.> ."# ; :` om 3 °"
(3 3J (3 ~ @"9P L ,IUPC QR/Ç Á q. S.d W.$ ,!".# (. > L u= [3
23
G , . 7.3 (T @ 3J ur$
; u.6 W.$ 3J (3 j"`(E L u= a !"#
q \26
!.Kkr$ u. 9U= ~b gR$
j".`(E L. u.= !".# ( 73 (T Z=" 7R q Sd W$ (
c= 73 36
\
− BC.3 _." @H.E eR. S> ; uz I
,p ": qu: ³"> d6 73 3/ 9d6 I.3 ".P( ."d p F> NO l6(
.6 9# ;IBC QR/ ~% #$ 3 ,U f ,I3J 73 ; IBC QRh W#/
|.9 g. ,P g 3$ ,K=3 T |
W#..v I..9D# #..P u..6 eR.. ,../ #.P ,_.T"To# I3J UE eR [$z ,K.P"> 7. uY IBC.3 u= q I"f#
." ( I.3J IBC.3 ³"> (C3 Y w"%
l=#> "
I"T
"
; IUPC3
!"#
a.
; 78
(
."
."9DE IBC.3
³.">
uz
uY .dT3 .9>( .o6d q|."Ã q$ K3^#P ""# IUPC
,>
\2015
°" _ > > IBC QRh W#/v R/ ZY vO ,IBC QR/ ; I3J K#TT% [# ]k#= jm
uU. Y.93 G.m NO gy ; 9U eR.
.TV 7. ,.$b .cd 93 73 3/ Y93 @H $% cd (# 3 "T"Tb K/Y IBC QR/
[.# "6( IdT ]k#= :` uU3 7s#
Z. R. ;IBC. QR./ L. u.= K6#=#.P 7 ..(b 7..3 ..|3 NO ..6o U.. I..3J rT#..Pv I.."¬ .."# ; ..b ..Ko= [..# "
Z.E !X 73 ,K#m [# M/z "To# 9P=
; ..3J 9..P£ ; q..6 .."T"T% ..f( x..=/
M/z QR/ "To# A"#
\
− ""c=# p ": qu: Dd ;
.c= I(.T ; @# 73 d x=/ ZY d sY
".m . /.T: Ã ,ab \
R./ (.Kc
yO ,." !U.T .K3 ; ~. @"9.P L @#
q !sE
Iu.6 [# ,!UT K3 73 43
q ; " K hH3
c= 73 34
\
− .DTd q.J I.3J cd qU3 @HE
qu..: F..( ~..V ..p ..""c=# ..":
S.DY [# 73 S=sE w"% ,"<#
..""c=# ..p ..(b 7..3 ..9$ |.."% ..3J ]k.#= uz L. =E ZY [# "$z \
F.m .3J u.=3Y . J c= j=3 w"%
7..P ,M../z i..D I""E..Pv d..T
Ko"..P eR.. (..3z ,9..P= jk.. !c=..
!.TE ]k.#d I(> 73 QR^#E 3 ]k#d " CU3
r9T#U3 uz \
I. F.3 .T:#3 c= R/ u6 >
3J $% =E 7R %9 u{ 73 $
K":E @9P
,
U" 2006
,
\2011
KG XJ : Y =2 $# Z6[E [-!
Y \]
U 9E( ; " ":H c=3 Sm
; U: I$3 BC3 L 63
(.3z ,2013
l.DT ; ":H. ./|= #U3 ZY NO H eR
°.D #U. Z @c @H
.c=3
," ":H
\2014
I." _.ok a. !".# .cd (Kc 7 p ":H 3J |E ZY 7 om _.3TE ZY 7. .3 È>Y ZO yO ;a ep KkY @H. .TE [# " p /(TE / 3J
Y !"..# q.. e=..P .." q
\ (..TE [../
IBC. i9E(E v uU3 eY K" [=9= v "="E ; G Y TE eY 7 j:E v a# ,T P uY T P uY IBC3 73 SP W 3J uY \
e(H P ]k#d I$Y >
~.% 2009
L. U. I3J ; p ":H 6 ZY
9 g 36 73 @$ ; DP#3 PW QR/
||
@k% K g g P g \
gR$
(b P
.6 L. M(# S/ [# 2011
g. (.T Y .36 7.3 @.$ ; ":H. "9DE D.P#3 6 u6 KT"9DE ZY I(K¤Y ,||9 \
#= QR/ =U e(. .P "
7.3 @.$ ; 1434
,.. g.. ,(..T Y ,@.." g.. ..36 ":H. .PÃ 6 ZY S#9XY [# x9E ,!"T DP#3 6 u6 \
e(U. .P s.Y
1436
r. .P
v ":H.. ZY E.$Y Z..# 1437
D @H P g 36 ; 9DE
°
\
."3b I.3J ; ":H Gm $C QR.. "..P( F..> ; ..p .. U..
Y ,.K"( . # .=3 IBC3 eY 7 I3J Y ,_" ~b @9> [$z W#v !""T# ]k#d @. (. .9D Y ,."d|" .D9E( Id"9 Y ,! %#
!Ar/C3 # ¢"/ usY
\
\\
% KG :
% = U
89E Ks9 $b 93 I" i9E(E I#U.3 NO IU.PC ; "rT#Pv TE yO ;T"X o.m .cdY 6 ZY W$ ,uU " ; 3T#3 uU 73 q"6 I" ]#= >( >
\
U I3J ; >( c= 6(3 ; .K3 N.#E ."6 ." I.K6 x=/ ZY 9#
°ofY 73 Y !sE v "P IK6 K"¥ , >(
QR../ !../Y ,_EU..PC3 }.. F..# Y j..
3 9>( Z a >( IKJ \
.E a . g.=9 (K¤Y >
$H. BC.3 }
".m I=U. ~r IUPC3 ; uU 73 @>Y NO %10
#U.3 .dY NO @" ~ ~ 2011
%3.29
,a g=9
\2014
ZY [./ ,.6 .3/ DTd dJ R/ ; {E .# ." >( I.KJ h TE [# " >( z ¨.o=E WdO !"# q " q 9>( Z ,q. .cd . ."d|" .= M 73 $# ; ; eY . Z ZY Z ,:P qo =9 L 3 ;=9 R/ 73 F># ]E= ": ³"> V ,v Y _=3 6( M T% > Z$ ZO ¨o=E >(
.>r " > K6 ez " ,3 a dJ ; M./z ."To# .3J ~f 3 7 GH KU:= 3J K#P [#
\
− ©. _."6# q. W#./ 7. ]#.= >
W#.../v Y ..."3b I...3 uz IBC..3 I #P T"> uU3 I#U 7.3 "of
uz BC.3 Z.$ yO ~. @"9P L ,I3J @9>
; .9T 9D 3 uU "3 Y "J ~.9> ~r. 7.3 .3J #P ZE T ;3J ]3{. ."d 7. (c= ©¦ 9D 73 q 9$ Y D3 I^# U (O ,A6
\
− I..3 "..P( F..> ..6(3 ;
I..d" eY I..3J '(..E U.. .."3b L.. .." Y ,uY IBC..$ ^#U..E ZY 7..
Y.93 I.9D# [.:E .#% .K i9E(.E IvUE j.mE I.d" eY (.#E v ~ @"9P L ,uU @ T3 P #P 7R 9D 9Ud °».E 73
9U.d 7. I.d" eY (.#E v W$ ,W#P @9> K=3 .. ..:"¤ @.. L.. ..3J [..( ~..%
; .3J ]3( ~9> 3 jmE Id" Y ,(^#
@ P
\
− @9> 73 uP "6 $H °" 7 ]#d
; u.P .3J @. W" _EUPC3 Y F#
,]k#= 7 "W#6v uU °" K#cdY Y K(
I.KJ @.$ q.> Z ~% KD"£ 7 3J | >( uU L K=3 q":#U
\
^Q KG :
DQ >" ! U
_...kr3 ..."3(6 ...P ]k...#d S...P
Jaramillo et al, 2012, P47
$H.3 ZY °o.fY
; ." ( I.3J ; (T F=f " ; o
.6 S.d$ DU °(¦ ¨3 dE 73 @$Ê .."T(Y ~W..` i..P z <.. ..TD=3 ZY ,.."d#3 ZY ,uU.. eY(.. ..T# ]k..#= ..dY @U..E o. °o.fY 9#P ; u=#P SU" I3J
F=f " 73 (T
\
l.DT $H.3 ':^d L IP $CE =. yO ,eU. a !"# F3 Y ez eY L.. _.ok a. !".# . .cd ,3J !"c=E ; !"# q 3J M(8 F=.f I" ; # ¢"/ usY $H3 9E W$
(T 3 3 _9` I"T j"`(E "# Y
\
. H. _.#K6 73
u °." NO 2011
.3z !"c=E #% Y 3J !"c=E · W" °rD I..9# ~ ..6 7..3 !..h ..T# .."$z I(..T3 \\\
.."9E NO '..:^dv R../ F..6( ..>
.% eR @H !"# q I3JÇ 7.3 .$
QR./ .T . jU.E I"%r.f .PÃ L A>
I$<
\ ; a !"# cd ¨> (Y K6 73 L. U.>z I." T# Y .> ,(.T fO j"# ZY Z iT >v % q. 7.3 I(T }WX ; R/
. gR.$ 34
q
Y ." $H3 L 9P (XC R/ ,c= 73 43
uDO q $C eR (3z ,(T =f ; !UT eR. S.> ; (.T y ; (b 73 |3 !UT
""# " ; [T"Tb ³Pz !UT _" @H
\
°rD ($RE $H3 eY sY okr j= P
Y ,.# .cd Y ,I.do#3v .# W". u
"P ~ J
\
\\
7.3 Q.v e%Y c= u6 @
eY Z Q.= R.":=E P 9D L 3 ,q @9>
$H3
\ ; j.m @H " $H Gm F3 usY °rD @9> 73 f U I3J
vO ,..# ..¢"/
q.."6 .."6 I$H..3 x..=/
/( Y 73 , UV ZY 7 I3J © /TE ..$ ,~.. @"9..P L.. H..#Pv ..
°.d !s. eR. 78.9 (.:% .3 eH#Pv U. 3.$ U. I$< {$ uP gR...$ ,u... (K U... $<... g ...P I$<
IH.#Pv n.o9 .K3 /T [#
Z .# I.">:E gR.$ ,||.9 g 3 .">:E @3 f "3b IDT F3 $<
.(¦ ||.9 g 36 Z # $<
Z .# I.$B 7 rs ,q "= #
" I3J F3
\
KG _ :
@,0<
U
eU. a. !"# cd '(#U js#
W. g.y , 9$ @H c= L !"# q q(D"P !c= M/z V ; I"%rf 73 KU:= _#P c= Ë(Y T ,a !"# f jk
..cdz (..>O I"%r..f 7..3 I..3J .."
. g.y ( yO ;(D# ]3{ (>O ,3 (¦fY [K#=E p "3( 73 UP I#U 73 .. ; e.."> F..>3 L..Y NO ..A(>
,U.."
\2011
uH.dO "%r.f .c= F6Y ~ @"9P L !".# . ." U.>z ./ I"
a q. 7.3 ( q(T: ; u6 W$ ,
15
s.Y ,
DU / a !"# ZY L Ay q Sd ,I3 $H jk fO 7 CU "
.fO ,K" U.=3 Z CH. .c= jk fO
" Z CH c= okr
\
a c= W$
M¨.# |$(3 I3
7.3 .K" @. .3 Y .3 " IW#v ; .f M .> gR. I.% w."% ,I(O q. S.d W.$ a. !"# Ks /§
v ,IT:= F" @3$ !V x=K ,c= 73 54
f "d|" ©k: Ì:#%v 3J F"D#UE ; h
M¨..# Y ,'..>v ..% g.. v ,.. ..
"=" Y Íz 73 A#
\
.V .% U. I3J g# v sY #V @ ,p Y "U# ¢" 73 K6"#%
!#. [# ":"¤ >z Ko=3 L q T3 NO "#
.¢" ."E ."# % g# Y vO ,K"
K" ~b ":"¤ >z QR/ L "U#
q 73 \
T c= "# % 3J g sY
|. .P .K" @KP eR (3z [k|J Z # Y
"U# ¢" ; @fb
\
3J F"D#UE v ( d6 73 .E V
"$Y d$ uP ,! %= IÎ Y 3 q(T3 [/ @ ,uz E ( QR/ i9E(E v ,O Y F."¥ ; .9D _ok a !"# cd T9U3 uP % L I3JÊ
\
g [# "$z dJ © x=/ ZY vO 3J K"
.9D . .V @3 q"6 "rT#P I
q# ~9T 3 V gR$ ,3J 9T K"
\ F.> ; q. .d6 x.=/ ZY .9# 9.P Ã .#V U I3J ; $b IBC3 "9DE ~. j"# eR @H @E (DE 6(3 NO [.=9# I3J QR
.K" @KU. ,IBC. QR./
NO .T R./ ,"T"Tb $b @ ¢" NO ~o#
7. . 6p ~r 73 gR 3r I%T !TE w P ~CP
\
880" X88J &G88 $88# 88%DE :
88
` KG S5T
L T M,
a-T b:
? 2030
; $b IBC3 "9DE F> M(E um ; 7.3 . 7. GH.$ eR. ,U. I3J .. ;IBC.. QR../ .."9DE _..6E [..# I..>
. L. UE [# I%T 73 w%9 ."TV ; I.3J @":# !KU ,I> QR/
\2030
. I.%T QR/ (O !E >
.P A.# [.# #U $b cd IBC3 a# o= L :
−1
3"F 0 N OE b0 M8,
M8# T
RS
>"
DQ P
U
NO I...3J _..." _...#E eR... S...> ; b I.D# F.3 ".` ,"^#
.DE ; .
.. @..¤ ; ,..K=3 q:#..Pv ..K#J3 ..(
IT IK 73 q# I6b !"#
3 I3J #E ZY v #
:
− I.K6# .:#E .36 @. P !P
K#"..^` K#"f.. {..E ,!"..# ; .."
> [(E ,T#U .9 L. |.$(E ,.K (¤ K
,..( ..#=3 U..PC$ ../ Y ..V ,a ..
h f ""EPv D V NO vf
\
− ,A%8 3J :U jmE P V
I{.3 7. {.E ,.K3K3 .K( K#DHdY "98 / 7 h (:=E [# K#/ 3J 6
\
− R.":=E I" ,m 3J M/Y V
KP"> K""TE (8 ,M/z QR/
\
− i.P @. $b TX <d L @
L U ["/:3 8O u= L @ ,[3J [:"¤ xP Iu(6$ /W#
\
− !".# IU.PC3 !.cd F.=E L. @
# W [3J @ P I#U3 I9D#3
!"# L [W#6v D \
−2
888E 888?;, 888#- V=888- 888[
W, U
.p ""c=# ": qu: F #§
.E [.# Iu(6p 73 (>O NO "<#
/( Y gy L :
− v i".D^# W#
[.( eR. ["E.P
,.KT(8 !.P( ,AK6E § ,3J "f
g.y ."TV I" ,K/Y K#P K# [=9 q£ "=3 ~ 6
\
− ..3J q..# ..$b .. @"H..E
eR. u=3z KY ,"$HE "8(T T(D (3 ,.. >( ; ³..Pz @..
IP"U.. u..= |..$
,3J f I""EPv _."6# 73 _="
I" x=/ Z ZY L ,M/z "TV od q"T 7s. W. _ks.Y .V "# ; T"> om
!K#" !Au:$
\
− 8= Ï M:` jm G"fE !P
p ,.3J . 7.3 . @ U."k( I
,. >( uU. ":H. 7s W ,K" "(:
I" CU FE ; Z# T§
\
− ..#E .." ..PY L.. I.."T .."#
,".^` ."=K3 k. (.E ,qu: qT ..T 7..3 .. .. ,..=# ~.. j"..#E T9U \
− (>O =s.# IW".# cdz dT
; ." $b DP PÃ "PY @sz
"$z p A"> 3J
\
− " PY 3 ep @" u=
,..K#6% ..A3W#/ ..AK6E ..Ko i9E(..E I"%r...f .."> @H... _..r 7...3 ..o#E
" CU3 ,@." R./ I#U.3 7.3 #U3 @$ I
I#U QR/ ; Gk¤ @3 G"f#
\
− 7...3 ...|3 ..."$z ... j=...3
U.>z . 73 u# ,(T y ; I"%r
3J "$z q "T"Tb q= @ [#
\
− 7.3 #U.3 @. om uY IBC3 u=
#U3 j".#E .3J .p ."$z @ I
"6( IdT >( uU ~
\
− ..¢" !".."T# o..m !".."TE ..3 u..=
p "$z \
−3
Y =2 $# Z6[E [-! 2"S a-T Y \]
U _." .E eR. S> ; .
.p ":H
;!".# IU.PC3 ; .$b "To# "PPY q|"$
,Y.9 R./ ¼"P(E L UE Iu(6O [=9E 73 r KY 73 :
− IBC. .3J "TV 6 7 p
F" K#%EO , 3P( uz
\
− ]3{ (TE ," (T# kX %EO
F..> L.. !""T#.. ..f (..TE ,"..P °ofY 73 K" lr8v 7 3 "d p
#K j
\
− ,.3J 7. .3#3 I.d" q.> E
I.d" ,.KDD ,.K( ,K#DH.dY ,AP"P T9D jk cdz ,K" 3
\
− (TE !TE ."$z .dJ 7
.K#%EO F.3 ,3J " IK " p F.# (.Y 3J 3 j °ofz K" lr8r
\
− I <.. ..T# .." (..T# !..TE
R":=# I(E 7 p ,"3J
\
−4
= 2"S a-T
% U
7..3 .. .."9DE NO Y..9 R../ @..":E ..#§
KY 73 ,gy L E [# Iu(6p :
− 7. uU. 9Po @3#3 cd u=
d ( > !U# ,I#U F"¥ L _T"9DE
\
− ..K3 Y ..o# @..3#3 ..cd u..=
uU 73 7 (z Ipµ 9Po
\
− ..¢"/ ..9D uY !".."T# j..m ..cd u..=
uU3 73 7 :¤ #µ
\
− "rT#.Pv !U# 6( jm cd u=
3J R":=# DU 7
\
− NO =#U. ">.# . >( jm cd u=
..dJ 7..3 @..$ ; ..T"> .. ..cdY d..>Ê z
" p "$
\
− ; ..# ..¢"/ us..Y ..9D xBO
[..$z @.. M(..8Y uU..3 !..TE I.."
3J ep
\
− q.$ =U. Y . (.T# ^#P
9Po uU
\
−5
DQ >" ! a-T U
U. M(8z $ xBO .3J @. q":#
..o= L. I..K6# u.= I(..T ; .K6 a#
:
− 3. F."¥ $H c= T Fm
O Y 98 Y ,E ¢"/ usY uP ,3J .f !c= jk (>O ,3J Z C` !P ;
!K=3 @$ DHd D9E( h
\
− B u=
F.# IU.PC3 F.3 ."T"T% .$
q ,K6 73 IUPC QR/ I6"#% "9E Mh .(8 7. ,(.Y .K6 73 e#>v 3J k H.#P I.$B .T ,# [ wo9 Mh F# IUPC3 lDT F3 W#P 3 " UV F= ~9E
\
− j.. °o..fY ..o F..# xBO
I(T =f ; 3J
\
−6
@,0< $ "c d;
U
¼"P(E ; | (% I3J "rT#P @
7.3 .|3 I.3J j=.3 ~r 73 ,$b 93 .o= L. ""c=# ," ,"$z "rT#Pv a#
:
− W. I.3 J c= @":# @"#
7s W F6( ZY L , "rT#Pv 73 |3 T§
qH= $b 9 _T"TV _#"
\
− Z I(.T y. ; .(b .3J j=3
a !"# NO l6(
\
− ; ..(b 7..3 ..|3 ..3J j=..3 G¨..E
W ,K/Y T§ W " /3 Aª qO K#"f 3J P F3 #
\
− W#. !".E ; "rT#.Pv 3J j=3
9P= ~9T 3 Fm ,(E [# ]3{
\
− q.. 7..3 q(D"U.. .. >( ..:"¤ @..Td
Ay I3
\
− u=
d qD#3 !c I3J UE
F.=E L.
$H.3 "$Y ]3( uHdO ~r 73 K 3 .. l..DT F..3 Y
,.."9=6z I..3J !..TE
,n.o9 IH#Pv uH.dO
."3 |.$(3 (.E
r
"mO
´3
\
%DE
$#
&G0 % 0"
: 8e2 .,8#
KG L
8
? 2030
E F. ¡"k( D= 2030
.93 [.=9E .od I3J [P q ; ³Pz uY .T(8 @. ]K=$ $b ,
NO g.y F.6(
73 ( K#=9E [# ]3{ Pz 9 K/Y "TV @6Y ,
.9 ">. F6( js# yO
TE x=/ ZY ( ]3( ITD=3 PY
.9$
.c=$ .$b ."9DE I9D#3 9 QR/ I3J ; @ ]K=3
\
p (Xz R/ j"mE 7 ."9DE .
IBC3 . . "TV ; I3J ; $b
~r 73 2030
.9 .Ï .T"> .""V q(cd
; I [# ]3{
QR./
.(
, .K89E Z."
g.y ,K"=9E I3J L [# $b 9 a# o= L
,2030
:2016
−1
.. .. ..TE G..": L.. 2030
W#.. ,..D .."8(> 9 Iu(..6p ":H..
( d ; u6 w"% ,: 9Po
":#U.=P
I#U.3 L.Y ."To# ." IPW @sY 73 ,I..DT F.."¥ ; q"..`( ..$b ":H..
3 @$ y gy @H"P " 3 @":# 7Ã /
uU 9Po 73
, .cd [=9# qB93 q QR/
b k93 $ ,_
dY L "$# a#
_ Y|.# v u|6
( 73 \
−2
IHdY uY ³"T |$(3 2030
7 IKJ QR/ uU3 ; qU "3b IKJ ,I.KJ QR./ !/Y %Y "3b I3J , T#
; I.3J U."P .$b cd [=9E Z a#
p #Pv T§ ,|$( R q( "
_./Y ,
KkY I3J L O _k#d =#P
\
−3
|#E . Z.E Z 2030
.3 ~.: [3b uz ; ~ @sY 73 @. . .$% .T§ eR @H ,=8
[3b ,
U a. ep . 7.3 b ;
,
R":=# ( IY gy "TV @6Y 73 q.O ]3d(
. .( . B.93 ½9E =/ ,3b "/
.d ( uz .": ,I3J ; D $b I3J ; K"=9E °D $b 93 %Y _"
\
−4
L ( $CE . : $H
F."¥
" "o I$< T L $CE W$ ,M(8z W"E 7sE [#
u.6 > ,"=# F ; !KU
( I3|# ;
; 3z u" Y xBO L @=P
""# "
, sY K" u6
F."J 7.3 .(d
{ q9 @:#
I.%T u¬. =#$H.3
,
y ~ ; uP ,$b cd ; / Y93 $H /R":=E Y I(T
\
−5
XrX 73 ( D=E £
"PPY
; . Y
e"b F#
. eR ,.( ."TV ; ³.Pz
F.# R./ u.= ; ".PPY I.3J E ,Q(DE "$#
Z
Z"P F# R/
Y "% ($
93 =9#E ""E 3c=3 ~r 73 Q(( !# 3=
,q"`( $b ."T I6(^ Z#P
I." . I.Y I|dY yO |" ($Y (:
k9 $b cd #E _
:#^
\
−6
(../| ..#>v @H..
}.. ..o
u= ~r 73 F" (: E L |$( ,(
,@. U. D9E(3 ""E 3c=3 L. .$C .Ã
K ; f. I.3J 3 !"# qB9
M R/ "TV ,
.=/ $b 93 [=9E Z gR
(.Xz (/.¤ 9
; yO O ."TV @. (. .E Z
3 ( Y 73 U I9D#3 !cd [=9E I "O MA
I3J ; $b
\
−7
l.DT L. .( 73 w o |$(
,: 3b j3r3 !P( ,
qu.: ||E
uU ":H ]3.d( ~r. 73
|.|E .$%
@ [3b .# uz .TX F"HE
.
!A" CU.3 @o# F"J ¢"A ,<9 I>D ,
I.o# .K63 L. !A.> u=
\ ~r. 7.3
.o R/ ZY 9# 9P W$ $b 93 '(#P "Y L $C eR (3z ,9 QRh B93 ½9E _ I3J ; 3|% ($Y @H c= R/ [=9E (XY
\
−8
.. .. I..3|# 7..3 u..= 2030
.""# .3c= (.DE .(8 7. u= z "^`
".^H .dJ @. ,Ad3 F"
gR.$ ,.D ,:=. .T IR. T#
. ".^H u.= |k.$ !./Y 73 K dJ ; $b cd [=9E ,(:
V 73 _" W I3J
z I" CU [.# (.D# @k.P ( Y
D R/ TV ZY 7
\
−9
. I3|# 73 MK#.P 2030
@s.Y 73 @>z L P I36 ¯ j9E ZY .. ~..o .." ..36 200 2030
\ I..$Y ..>
cd [=9E Z b IP 73 I3J $b
.# Iv. ; |"# od 3J F ZY _d`
Iv.. [../ F..# ..3 [.. w..o9 I3J !""TE ; "PPz
\
−10
I3|# 73 ]k#d <d 2030
@H. !".# I6(ª #U3 "TE [# IBC $% cd ,e=P cdz ( Y %Y I3J
r 73 3J F"D#UE [#
M(#
L dJ R/
_" :p Y = I" CU3 V ,_""TE
\
−11
. . I.3|# 73 |.|E 2030
a Z# :dp qu:$
, i .m F.m ~r 73
W W#v I" L 3f (Xz |
@. T3 To#
]3.d( ,M¨
.>
.( _TD#.P eR.Á
³..Pz® [3..b ..:dp qu..:$ F.. ;
\ Zz
(¦#U.E [# IKJ {$Y 73 E U I3J u|6 9$
73 I"d|"3 .$b cd [=9E Z
$ !#Æ eR ,I"d|"
. .K3 @.3# !c=
U3 no#.P NO FD# @ ,P 3 om I !c $C WK3 r3 3 "Ey @ I=3
.c= R F># p (Xz R./ ."TV ;
|#v
\ −12
. . I.3|# 73 |.|E 2030
L.. Y (..z q.."% ; u..P .."W#6v " CU..
#U3
~Wz IUPC \
!.E .$b .93
I3J ; D ,_6# R/
|.|E L. @E ,Q
" CU $H L "$# ~r 73 ,
>r u=
M(8z @$ F3 ,K6 3J @
"$E
M/z "TV ; F" xH
\
3 ~r 73 .9 (.Xz js.# 9.P
."9D#
. "TV ; I3J $% cdY 93 7.. v .."#% .. ..c= R../ [..=9E ZY ,2030
K/ I3 Y
]K=.3 .c=$ .K"=9E ; Z K#
"To# _r 73 UE @ 7.3 .h f M/z
.d6 73 h D9E( T# ( M/Y ,d6 (
\ f , D,;,0<
:
7. .P ¢PY H>=3 @"V ~r 73
"# I6#=#Pv !TE :
− .$% .K: o.m .9E x=/ ZY F3
_dY vO , " (¦ ~ ; _ET"9DE I3J ."9DE _.6E [.# I.o# 7.3 x=/ ~|E J ; ..K: R../ ..93 ..3 .." ( I..3
@":E "Y L >:E x=/ ZY W$ ,f U
.." q..( .."To# v..f ..K: R../ ..93 qH= p ": qu:
\
− q. I.>3 .6 P ]k#d I(K¤Y
,U I3J ; $b IBC3 "9DE _6E ZY L I$Y u.# ,M(.8z @$ K6E x=/
@. eR IBC QR/ "9DE od _6E 73 . . 3s .c= qU. u.K#d ,2030
IrT=. 7.3 . I.% [.# I.3 J .(/6 I "¦E S=sE I3J @ ; "=
$b IBC3 @":E 3Y °9 j#:E K"
\
− I.%T 7.3 3/ P S3>
.$b IBC3 "9D# ¢" NO TE [#
K/Y "TV
\
− .> ½9E >r 6 L P I$Y
93 $b IBC3 "9DE 2030
{ M/z 73 ( S¸ yO ,"3J ]3
.$b IBC.3 W#. .D#E [.# Iu(6p
TE
\ g .% 0" h T . :
− ; .$b IBC. W#./v L. "$#
."To# .3/ .TD=3 @HE $ ;!"# IUPC3 . . M/Y .D=E ,./ £ @.$ ; 2030
" q( NO !"# IUPC
"T"Tb U=
\
− "9DE I>3 7 IP 73 |3 !TE
U I3J ; $b IBC3
\
− 7. n.o9 I.P 7.3 .|3 !TE
U. I3J ; $b IBC3 "9DE I"
Å"U. [.W#6v ;.T F.m F.3 # W
\
− V IP !TE .c= qU "TE ""
.93 T§ W QD eR @H I3 J j.mE [.# Ir".:# !.TE NO .mO ,$b _" Iu6 [# I"3 ©
\
− GH no9 IP 73 |3 !TE
(.8 .T# . I.36 ; .$b F.> 7 A{ 73 q:#Pv
~ R/ ;
\
− ½.P z ; .$b .TX <.d L @
eR. @H. ABC jm 8O E ,"3J [T"T% F> c=$ KT"9D# K
\
* * * 6 B D
<2
i :
% D :
[D.P# @.3# |.$(3 ( q93 ]3d(
\2011
]3d(
"3J $b o >D
\
a .. g..=9
\ \2014
a .. g..=9 I..d"
− ..f IBC..
U " ( \
¼# F6U3 +5
+4
73 2017
:
http://databank.albankaldawli.org/data/views/reports/tablevi
"J .£ .#ª ,".P £ @"9d ,e \2015
. .od
a !"# IUPC3 ; $b y= %
\
z #>v IP
~W , 3
2
,
−1
\ 24
[X...b ...K S...= ...P , 2011
i"...D^# IBC...3 \
["EPv
;
=9 I"$
I
; I3J 73 U
.# .¢"/ us.Y (cd K6
\ q .= .T3 w.o
q#: a !"#
z – q: 73 ID#
−18
(£20 Q1431
9"8 36 , \
3% :"d ,(b
\2011
.T .K#>r ":H. qp
Y (cd K6 73 U I3J ""c=#
¢"/ us
:¤ #
\ .36 ,qH=3 Q#$ P
(T Y
\
£ ,
\2006
Z|." ; a. !#
\ '.(
: .
<= 9D " (
\
£ ,
\2011
[6 { Iv.o# qu(.> –
"P .."= ; [6..z X..# "..P"P"J ..P
eU a !"#
\ Z=
: .T <= 8
rp
\
..£ ,"..`(
\1435
..=E36 .. g.. ..6z
\ :"o..f
,'(
+1
+1
,1435 16570
\
... ...
2030
\2016
]3...d{ ""...:# q<...=
...( ..."TV \
¼...# F6U...3 ...6 2
1438
73 :
http://vision2030.gov.sa/ar
£ =/ ,e(U
\1436
I.3J qO ; $b "9DE
U : 6ydY P g 36 \
Q.#$ .P
P g 36 ,qH=3
\
,7.. ¹ O
@"W..P
;
|..#3 ,"..`
; 7U..£ ,G..P
2009
..$% \ I..3J
|..|E I..>
..3c=3
!"...#
...
a w...o9 [...
;
3 (, ...9#3
p
=P
\
"¯ ,»
\2013
IU.PC3 ; .$b "9DE k
.K" .¦# @9.P DU. ; a !"#
\ .>
,a. !".# IU.PC3 .$% ` 3T3 @ q|
: a !"# IUPC qJ W#v ¢"/
\
= £ ,!P !"
\2015
["E.Pv i"D^# PÃ F>
# ¢"/ usY (cd K6 73 Z6 3 \
" "$
,(/z 36 , u|.J 162
, 2
−85
\ 138
¿..9 ~r..8 ,G<..
\1437
F..> I..3J ..$%
I..DE \
p o:.. L.. [..$Y ~..T3 .."d
u(T` 3J
\ F6U3
¼#
~` 1 73 1438
:
http://www.su.edu.sa/MediaCenter/Articles/Articles/Pages/
articles93.aspx
,e(H
³"O \2012
um ; "rT#Pv 3J $%
a.. !"..# ; ..¦#
\ (C.. ..3T3 @.. ..>
F ( e=U
H. . # I"
ZWs. $
!"# ; [$z W#v qJ
\ q: ~r
−2
{#9P 3
\ 2012
p 78 :"of
"d \2017
. ".fE ZXrX
@":E ; I3J \2030
F6U3
¼#
" 20
73 2017
:
https://www.almowaten.net/2017/01/30
,e(3 £
\
\2017
"P"U q(8^ $b :
8O
[ ³"T3 G""E F3 ;(3 e(cd '(z
.$%
" ( I3J
\ .$o a . (C T3 wo