Part One: Reasoning and Arguments
2.2 STATEMENTS THAT OFFER A REASON FOR BELIEF
Consider the declarative sentence The price is too high. Provide four other sentences that are not in declarative form that serve the same declarative function. Use at least two different nondeclarative forms.
Not only is the danger of disrespectful T-shirts a terrible reason for preserving secrecy (should we suppress photographs of Gandhi and Mother Theresa as well?), but also it is doubtful that it is Zuckerman’s real reason. Nevertheless, he offers it as a reason for believing his conclusion, and that is enough to count the series of statements as an argument.
Guideline. Count it as an argument even if the reasons offered seem clearly to be bad ones.
2.2.2 Inference Indicators
Given the frequent absence of good reasons for belief, what tells us that an argument is even being offered? Perhaps the best sign of an argument is the presence of an inference indicator, a term that frequently signifies the presence of an inference—that is, of movement from premises to conclusion.
(An old-fashioned word for inference indicator, illative, comes from a form of the Latin word for infer.) Note this hasty bit of reasoning by Christopher Hitchens in Harper’s:
Since it is obviously inconceivable that all religions can be right, the most reasonable conclusion is that they are all wrong.
The highlighted terms suggest that a reason for belief is being offered, and they help us to figure out where the premise is (after the word since) and where the conclusion is (after the words the . . . conclusion is).
Some other inference indicators that introduce a premise are highlighted in the sentences below:
Since you said it, it must be true.
Because he is being so sweet, you know he’s about to ask for money.
Spring is coming early, for the crocuses are already in bloom.
I can tell that she will accept the job offer; my reason is that I heard her talking to a moving company yesterday.
I think that the butler did it, on account of his fingerprints on the weapon.
A common pitfall in identifying indicators is to suppose that if is an inference indicator that introduces a premise. Suppose, for example, I say,
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average doubles this week, then you will be rich.
This looks a bit like an argument in which the premise is The Dow Jones Industrial Average doubles this week and the conclusion is You will be rich. But this argument—You will be rich, because the Dow Jones Industrial Average will double this week—expresses much more confidence about your imminent wealth than the sentence If the Dow Jones Industrial Average doubles this week, then you will be rich. Premises are held to be true by the arguer. But an arguer who uses if is not asserting that what comes between if and then is true but is only asking us to suppose for the moment that it is true. I am not offering you a reason to believe you will be rich (unless in a separate sentence, I do, without the if, state that the Dow will double this week). It is true that if–then statements do occur often in arguments (Chapter 11
is devoted to such arguments), but these statements can be either premises or conclusions. So, if is not useful as an inference indicator that introduces a premise.
The following are examples of inference indicators that introduce the conclusion:
You said it, therefore it must be true.
He is being sweet; thus, you know he’s about to ask for money.
The crocuses are already in bloom; consequently, spring is coming early.
I heard her talking to a moving company yesterday; it follows that she will accept the job offer.
These are the butler’s fingerprints; hence the butler did it.
In addition, two old-fashioned inference indicators are left over from the days when Latin was the dominant European academic language. Ergo is the Latin term for therefore, as in the sentence You said it, ergo it must be true. And Q.E.D. is the acronym for the Latin phrase quod erat demonstrandum (or, which was to be demonstrated); it is placed after the conclusion, as in, You said it. It is true. Q.E.D.
The list of inference indicators is seemingly endless; we have covered only a few of the most common ones. Note a less conventional one in this statement:
Rastafarians smoke the herb “ganga” or marijuana as part of their religious rites, citing Psalms 104:14: “He causeth the grass to grow for the cattle, and herb for the service of man.”
Citing is the inference indicator here. What we cite is typically support, so the term indicates that the premise is coming up—the premise (true or false) that the Bible approves of the use of marijuana.
Guideline. When possible, identify premises and conclusions by the location of inference indicators.
Some Inference Indicators
Before Premises Before Conclusions
Since Therefore
Because Thus
For Hence
My reason is So
On account of Consequently
The justification is What this justifies is
Is confirmed by Confirms
It follows from It follows that
EXERCISES Chapter 2, set (e)
Construct a simple argument using each of the following inference indicators. State in each case whether it introduces a premise or a conclusion.
Sample exercise. is confirmed by.
Sample answer. That he is impractical is confirmed by the fact that he never bought car insurance. (It introduces a premise.)
1. it follows that 2. confirms
3. the justification is 4. on account of 5. so
6. for
EXERCISES Chapter 2, set (f)
Identify the inference indicator in each of the following short passages and state whether it introduces the premise or the conclusion. Two of the passages do not have an inference indicator (these two are not arguments). Identify them as well.
Sample exercise. “I do not want war, but if it is forced upon me I will win because I have always won.”
—Napoleon to the Russian ambassador
Sample answer. Because; introduces the premise.
1. The gauge is low, so we’re low on gas.
2. My sense that he doesn’t like me was confirmed by his refusal to talk to me at the party.
3. The way he is dragging his feet shows that he isn’t in very good shape.
4. The recent crime statistics in the newspaper are my reason for believing that my neighborhood is safe.
5. Jesus loves me, this I know, for the Bible tells me so.
6. The church-burnings are intended to cripple the spiritual lives of thousands of blacks. But amid the destruction they persist, showing that a church exists in its people, not in a wooden frame or pulpit.
7. “The saddening syllogism of Marshall Herff Applewhite and his followers seems to have gone like this: we think that an alien spaceship is trailing the comet; observation through a capable telescope shows no such spaceship; therefore, let’s get rid of the telescope.” —New Yorker 8. “Because normal two- to four-celled embryos have no differentiated organs or nervous systems,
they cannot be harmed by cloning or other research manipulations.” —John Robertson, Chronicle of Higher Education
9. “Still obsessed by thoughts of death, I brood constantly. I keep wondering if there is an afterlife, and if there is will they be able to break a twenty.” —Woody Allen, Without Feathers
10. “If you believe the doctors, nothing is wholesome; if you believe the theologians, nothing is innocent; if you believe the soldiers, nothing is safe.” —Lord Salisbury, at the end of the 19th century
11. “Fiercer far than the light which beats upon a throne is the light which beats on a presidential candidate, searching out all the recesses of his past life. Hence, when the choice is between a brilliant man and a safe man, the safe man is preferred.” —James Bryce, The American Commonwealth, 1888
12. When asked how he could justify getting confessed murderers off, Texas criminal lawyer Percy Foreman said, in his rolling tones, “Mah fees are their punishment.” —Henry Rothblatt, That Damned Lawyer
2.2.3 When There Are No Inference Indicators
Arguers don’t always supply inference indicators to help you find your way around. This leaves you in the dark if the logic of the argument is bad—that is, if there is no plausible connection between premises and conclusion. But otherwise, you should still be able to make your way.
Bernie Smith, a train buff who manages a model railroad store in Kansas City, was asked about the possibility that cabooses might be eliminated from trains for economic reasons. He offered this argument:
I think they should keep the cabooses. What’s a train without a caboose? People are used to seeing a red caboose tagged on the end and someone waving at them.
Without inference indicators in Bernie Smith’s argument, how are you to find the premises and conclusion?
Here is a helpful, but not foolproof, suggestion. In the absence of inference indicators look for the most controversial statement in the argument; it is usually the conclusion. Then test it out either mentally or on a piece of paper by placing the word therefore in front of the statement. If it sounds right in this form, you’ve found the conclusion. This often works because arguments typically use the familiar as grounds for accepting the new. Premises are usually easier to accept than the conclusion, since the premises are not supposed to be what is in question; the conclusion is. The conclusion, presumably, becomes plausible because it follows from the already plausible premises.
This technique is easy to apply to Bernie Smith’s argument. There’s nothing surprising about this statement:
People are used to seeing a caboose at the end of the train.
But this one is less obviously true:
They should keep the cabooses.
And it sounds right if we insert therefore in front of it; it, then, is the conclusion.
Here’s another argument with no inference indicator, provided by an aide to the astronaut and American hero John Glenn when Glenn was running for president. The aide, speaking anonymously to reporter Morton Kondracke about whether Glenn would make a good president, said this:
It’s great to have Glenn with you. He’s indefatigable when he homes in on one issue. But he doesn’t see the forest or even the trees, only branches and twigs. He’s a responder and not a leader.
He has no coherent vision. He would be a symbol, not a man of substance. He would not be a good president.
Our technique of looking for the most controversial statement is not as useful here. Because we have no knowledge of Glenn’s political capability, it is hard to tell whether any of the statements is substantially more controversial than the others. But arguments, as already noted, often occur in the context of answering questions. This suggests another technique: look in the wider context for the question being asked; the argument’s conclusion is usually a proposed answer to that question. In this case, the wider context is a media interview in which the aide was asked whether he believed that Glenn would be a good president. Glenn’s aide is giving reasons for his answer:
John Glenn would not be a good president.
And, again, inserting therefore in front of it does sound right. That statement is the conclusion.
Notice that the conclusion is the first sentence in the caboose example; in the John Glenn example, it is the last. First and last are the two places where a conclusion is most likely to be found, though it could, in principle, be found anywhere.
Guideline. When there are no inference indicators, look for the most controversial statement in the argument; if one can be readily identified, it is usually the conclusion.
Guideline. When there are no inference indicators, look in the wider context for the question being asked; the proposed answer to it is usually the conclusion.
EXERCISES Chapter 2, set (g)
For each argument below, identify the conclusion. If there are inference indicators, identify them, and state whether they introduce premises or conclusions.
Sample exercise. Definitions cannot, by their very nature, be either true or false, only more useful or less so. For this reason it makes relatively little sense to argue over definitions. —Peter Berger, The Sacred Canopy
Sample answer. Conclusion: It makes relatively little sense to argue over definitions. Inference indicator: for this reason (referring to the reason that has just been given), introduces the conclusion.
1. You aren’t my real mother. Documents in the Hall of Records show that I was adopted.
2. Everybody expects the band to come back on stage for an encore, since in their other concerts they have always saved their old hits for the finale.
3. I’m sick of hearing my friends telling me to get a life and to spend my time somewhere besides escape rooms. Hey, I have a life. As long as I’m living, I have a life.
4. What’s that shimmering on the highway? Well, there is no water in this desert. It’s got to be a mirage.
5. Dade County, which includes Miami, is the best place in America to be a criminal. It has the nation’s worst crime rate and does the laziest job of putting criminals behind bars. —Miami Herald
6. “We’re waste managers,” said the CEO of Chem Waste. “So, if the business moves to more services and processing, we’ll move with it.” —Forbes
7. Those who oppose euthanasia buttress their case by pointing to the rare patients that have been given up for dead but inexplicably survived. —U.S. News and World Report (Note that this passage contains an argument, but does not advocate it—it merely reports on it.)
8. “We are describing the first one of a new phylum,” Higgins says. “If Loricifera is not a new phylum, then it must be assigned elsewhere, and there is no satisfactory elsewhere for it.”
—Science News
9. “I believe in turning our attention to things of importance—to questions that may by some
possibility be solved. It is of no importance to me whether God exists or not. I exist, and it is important to me to be happy while I exist. Therefore, I had better turn my attention to finding out the secret of happiness, instead of trying to ascertain the secret of the universe.” —Robert Ingersoll, Ingersoll: Immortal Infidel
10. “I believe there will be a new crusade with Jesus Christ as the commander-in-chief who will bring our nation back to greatness,” he continued. Wickstrom, head of the fundamentalist and
paramilitary group Posse Comitatus, went on to say that the targets of the crusade would be Jews,
“so they better get the hell down to Brazil or anywhere else that will have them.” —Los Angeles Times