JOURNAL OF SCIENCE OF HNUE DOI: 10.1 SI 73/2354-1059.20! 7-OOlg NaturalSci. 2017, Vol. 62,No. 3,pp. 142-152
This paper is available online at http7/stdb.hnue edu.vn
DANH G I A C H U O I BIEN DOI KHI HAU - N U O C - N A N G L U O N G - L U O N G T H U C - C O N G B A N G XA H O I O D O N G B A N G S O N G CUtJ L O N G
D a o N g p c H u n g ' , T r a n D u e Tuan^ va C u T h i P h u o n g ^ 'Khoa Dia li, Tru&ng Dgi hoc Suphgm Hd Ndi
Wien Nghien ciru Sdch vd Hoc lieu Gido due, Nhd xudt hdn Gido due Viet Nam
^Khoa Thdy vdn vd Tdi nguyen nu&c, Tnr&ng Dai hoc Thuy Lgi Tdm tat. Cac nghien cflu chi ra rang, bien doi khf hau (BDKH) va cac hoat dpng kinh te xa hoi cua con ngirdi duac the hien ro net qua chuoi cac moi quan he bao gom bien d6i khf h|iu - nirdc - nang iirang - lirang thyc - cdng bang xa hoi (goi tat la chuoi "bien doi khi hau - nudc - nang lirpng - luong thyc - cong bang xa hoi"). Tai cac vung lanh tho khac nhau, mflc do quan trpng va moi quan tam cfla xa hpi vdi tflng thanh phan trong chu6i khong nhu nhau Nghien cuu duac thuc hien vdi each Hep can theo chuoi va sfl dung cac phucmg phap thu thap sfl li so li^u, phuong phap danh gia acong quan va xiy dung phuong trinh hoi quy, xay dyng bieu do SAM. Ket qua cua nghien cuu chi ra rang; xel ve mflc do tac dong ihi chuoi quan he d Dong bang sdng Cflu Long (DBSCL) duoc bieu thi la BDKH - nudc - luong thyc - nang lucmg - cdng bang xa hdi; nhung xet theo mflc do quan tam cua xa hoi thi chuoi quan h§ d DBSCL duac bieu thi ia BDKH - luang thuc - nudc, cdng bang xa hpi - nang luang.
Viec nghien cuu chuoi cac mot quan he noi Iren a DBSCL c6 y ngliia bdi vi ket qua Ihu dupc la tien dc quan trpng cho nghien cflu ve qua trinh hoc tap chuyen doi nham phat trien ben vflng d DBSCL.
Td- khda Bien doi khi hau, chuoi bien doi khi hau - nuox; - nang luang - luong thyc - cong bang xa hoi, dong bang song Cuu Long, hoc tap chuyen doi, phat trien bin vflng.
1. Mfrdau
Dong bang song Cflu Long (DBSCL) nam d ria phia Nam cfla Viet Nam, cd tdng di£n lich lu nhien khoang han 4 0 nghin km^, cMem han 12 % dien lich cua Viet Nam [1] va 5 % dien tich liru vuc sdng Me Cdng. Phia Tay cua Ddng bang tiep giap vdi Campuchia, phia Nam ta vinh Thii Lan, phia Ddng la Bien Ddng va pMa Bac tiep giap vdi Thanh pho Hd Chi Minh v i tinh T i y Ninh.
2 2 % dan sd Viet Nam sdng d DBSCL. D i t ndng nghi?p ehiem 7 5 % dien tich DBSCL, phin ldn la rupng lua. D B S C L cd tai nguyen nudc ddi dao, khf hau nMet ddi ndng am, he thdng giao thong dudng bp va dudng thuy thuan tien, ngudi dan c i n cfl chiu khd va cd kinh ngM^m s i n xuat ndng nghiep, ndng ngMep la sinh k l cMMi cho 6 0 % dan cu d DBSCL [2]. DBSCL cung cip 4 6 % ting luong luang thyc s i n xuat lai Viet Nam va ddng gdp 2 7 % GDP cfla Viet Nam [3].
Ngay nh^n bai: 19/2/2017. Ngay nhan dang: 20/3/2017 Tac gia lien he: Dao Ngoc Hiing, e-mail: daongochui
Ddnh gid chudi bien ddi khi hdu - nir&c - ndng lucmg - Iwo-ng thuc - cong bdng xa hoi & dong bdng..
D B S C L la mdt trong ba ddng bing d l bi tdn thuang nhat tren the gidi do BDKH (cflng vdi ddng bang sdng Nile d Ai Cap va ddng bang Ganges d Bangladesh). Vdi bieu Men nudc bien dang cao, e i c hien tirang thdi net cue doan gia lang, BDKH da t i c ddng lieu eye v i dang ke den DBSCL. Theo d y bao, tac ddng cfla BDKH se lim 90%. dat ndng nghiep d DBSCL bi anh hirdng bdi Ifl lut, 70%. dien tich DBSCL se bj xam nhap man, nang suat ndng nghiep bi suy giam va sinh k l efla nMeu ngudi dan, dae biet l i ngudi ngheo bj anh h u a n g lieu cue [3]
Trong bdi eanh tren, chinh quyen va ngudi dan dia phuang da the Men mdi quan t i m ngay cang nhieu va sau sac den chudi mdi quan he BDKH - nudc - luang thye - nang lugng - cdng bang xa hpi. Thay cho each tiep can theo nganh. each tiep can chudi la each tiep can hflu Meu de nhan dien v i tim ra c i c giai phap ben vung giai quyet cac van de n a y sinli tfl chuoi. Golam Rasul
& Bikash Sharma cho rang tiep can chudi la each liep can mdi, dae biel phu hpp tai cac nudc phat trien de xem xel va giai quyet td hgp cae van de an ninh nudc - nang Iirang - luang thyc trong bdi canh biln ddi khi hau" [4]. Td chflc L u a n g thuc va Ndng nghiep Lien Hiep Qudc khuyen nghi su dung liep can chudi de p h i n tich dnh hinh va tim ra eac giai phap nham giii quyet van de an ninh luang Ihuc v i ndng nghiep ben vflng trong dieu kien BDKH [5] Unescap eung da cM ra cac lgi ich cua sfl dyng each tiep can chudi nudc - luong thyc - nang lugng d chau A va vung Thai Binh Duong [6], Tuyet L. Cosslell, Patrick D. Cosslell cung da nhan manh rang rat can iMet phai ap dyng lilp can chuoi v i phuang phap dieu tra qua internet kM nghien cim ve tai nguyen nudc va an mnh luang thyc d D B S C L [7].
T i l p c^n chuoi da duge cac lae gia cua bii bao ap dung trong qua trinh phan tich bdi canh cfla cac q u i trinh chuyen hda tien tdi su phat tnen ben vflng va cac qua Irinh hpc lap chuyen doi nhim muc lieu su phit trien ben vung d DBSCL. Diem mdi trong nghien cflu la da bo sung them 2 Ihanh phin: BDHK va Cdng b i n g xa hdi de xem xel va phan lich chudi cac mdi quan he N p i ' dung cfla nghien cuu la lam sang Id vai ird cfla cic ihanli phan trong chudi "BDKH - nudc - luajig thye - nang lugng - cdng bang xa hdi" va mdi quan tam cfla ngudi dan ddi vdi cac van de cfla chudi.
2. Noi dung nghien cmi 2.1. Phuong phap nghien ci^u
* Tiip cgn theo chuoi
Mdt trong nhflng thach thuc ldn nhai m i nhilu vung chau thd tren the gidi, cung nhu Ddng bing sdng Cflu Long eua Viet Nam Men dang phii ddi mat Ii lam the n i o de thich ung va giam thilu cac tac dpng b i t Ipi cua BDKH ddi vdi he thdng ty nhien v i kinh t l - xa hdi Vi vay, cdng dong eac vung chau thd trong do cd DBSCL dang tim kilm nhflng each tilp can va giai phap mdi de vugt qua v i iMch flng vdi nhung thach thuc eua BDKH va cac thach Ihflc ve phat trien nhu an mnh ngudn nude, nang lugng va luang thue eung nhu edng bang xa hdi. Trong bdi canh hien nay, each tilp can v i giai phap Iheo nganh [8, 9] cd the l i m tang tinh de bi ton thuong hoac lam g i i m k h i nang phyc hdi d nhflng n g i n h khic. Vi vay, thay vi ap dyng each tiep can nganh, DBSCL cd thi va can phai ap dyng cing sdm c i n g lot each liep can chudi (tiep can da nganh v i da phuang dien theo dinh hudng phat trien ben vflng) de tim ra cac giai phap ben vflng cho cac van de "gay cin" v l ty nMen - kinh te - xa hpi nay sinh dudi tac ddng lieu cue cfla bien doi kM hau. Chudi d day dugc h i l u la lap hop cac mdi quan he tuang ho lanh nhau cua cac thanh phan ndi trdi thudc cac ITnh vyc ty nMen - kmh te - xa hdi trong mot khdng gian lanh thd nhit dinh trong mot khoang thai gian nhit dinh ma d dd khi mdt thinh thinh phan chu ehdt cua chuoi bien ddi thi nd se tac ddng va gay ra nhflng b i l n ddi day chuen d cac thinh phin khac trong chuoi Tiep can theo chudi l i each h i p can can b i n vflng, coi trpng v i di sau lim Meu xem xet mot each tdng the v i da phuang dien vai trd cfla c i c mdi lien ket va lac dpng tuang hd gifla BDKH - nudc - nang lupng - luang thuc v i cdng b i n g xa hgi trong mdt khdng gian lanh thd dang chiu lac ddng umnh me cfla BDKH de tim
Dao Ngpc Hiing, Tran Dflc TuSn va Cii Thj Phuang
ra cac giii phap giai quylt mpt each ben vflng eac v i n d l gay c i n nay sinh trong khdng gian lanh thd nay.
* Ddnh gid luang quan vd xay dung phmrng trinh hoi
Phuong phap phan lich hdi quy v i tuong quan l i mpt trong nhung phuang phap thudng dupc sfl dyng trong thdng ke de tim mdi lien he phy thugc lan nhau. Vdi tri sd quan sal x^ efla X va y^ cfla Y ta can xac djnh he sd tuang quan r^^.
'XY-XY
trong dd'
X=^ \X^ =-^ ; K = ^ -,Y^ = ^ \XY^^
r,^ ludn < 1 ; va r^. cang ldn thi tuong quan cing e h | t . Sau do ta xay dung phuang trinh hdi quy: y = ax + b, trong dd.
XY — X y i_ ~Tr ~Tr a = =—T^rr-; b = Y- aX
* Phutfitgphdp thu thgp sirliso lieu
T i c gia tien h i n h thu thap eac tii lieu khii quit ve dieu kien tu nMen, kinh te xa hpi efla lanh tho nghien cuu de cd cai nhin khai quit nhat ve lanh thd Cac dfl lieu sau khi dupe thu Ihap dugc lien hanh phan lich, phan loai; sau dd kiem tra tinh day dfl va cap nhat cua cac ngudn tai lieu sao cho phfl hgp vdi yeu cau dat ra. Cac tai lieu thu th|ip dugc t u 2 ngudn cM'nh: Nien giam Thdng ke Viet N a m va Niem giam Thdng kd cfla cac dia phuang; phan lich tan sd lap lai mgt thdng tm nao dd bang viec sfl dyng cac tfl khda Iren cdng cu tim kiem Ihdng tin Google Do duge thu thip tfl nMeu ngudn khac nhau nen cac can dupc chpn Ipc va chuan hda cae lii lieu cho ddng bg.
* Bieu dd SAM
B i l u dd SAM (Sustainabilily Assessment Mapping) do Clayton de xual nam 1997 [10]. Cac ket qua cua phan tich vi the cd the dupc bleu dien d dang bieu dd, khiln cho cac thdng dn trd nen de tiep c^n. SAM l i cong cu bieu do dflng de Irinh dien cac thdng lin vj the v i hd trg viec Ifip quyel dinh. Cd the ndi SAM la cdng cy giao due va iryc quan.
2 . 2 . B o i c a n h n g h i e n c u u
Vung dat ddng bang chau thd sdng Cuu Long dupc hinh thanh khoang 2.000 - 2.500 nam trudc day. T u cudi the ki XVIII. khu vyc nga ba sdng H i u - sdng Can Tho v i phu can la diem quan cu ddng due, lien lye dugc lya chon lam trung l i m cfla vung DBSCL [11].
2.2.1. Dac diem dia li t y nhien
D B S C L cd dia Mnh thip, cd do cao lu 1 - 4 m so vdi muc nudc bien, cd nhilu vung triing niua mua nMeu vung ngap trong nudc, thudng xuyen chju t i c dpng cfla nudc bien dang, Ihuy trieu, xam nhap man. Cac nlidm d i t chinh a DBSCL bao gdm: Nhdm d i t phu sa nggt; nhdm d i t phen;
nhdm dat man.
Theo Copen, DBSCL cd khi hau nhiel ddi i m va kho (Aw) [12]. Nhiet dp quanh nam cao tmng binh nam khoang 27 "C. Do BDKH, nliiet dp D B S C L cd xu the tang. Lugng mua trung binh 144
Ddnh gid chuoi hien ddi khi hdu - nu&c- ndng lugng- luang ihyrc- cong bdng xa hpi & ddng bdng.
nam trong d i t liln 1600 - 2400 mm. Mua d DBSCL phan hda ldn theo mfla. Mfla mua keo dii tu thing 5 den t h i n g 11, tap trung tfl 92 - 9 7 % lugng mua ca nam. Mfla khd tu thing 12 d i n thing 4.
D B S C L cd mang ludi sdng, kech rach day dac gdm sdng Tien, sdng Hau v i cac sdng nhd khac ndi vdi nhau thanh mgt he thdng. Che dp thfly van D B S C L dien Mnh vdi hai mfla lu v i mfla can. Mua lu Ihudng bat dau v i o thing 7 keo dai tdi t h i n g 12 h i n g nam, gay ngap ung v i hinh thanh mgt mua nudc ndi rat dac tnmg. Theo Kich ban Bien ddi khi hiu va nudc bien dang cho Viet Nam (2016) cfla Bd Tai nguyen v i Mdi tnrdng, theo kich b i n phai thai trung binh, nhiel do d DBSCL ed xu the tang, trung binh 0.02 "C/nam (Hinh 1), v i o nam 2050, myc nudc biln dang 30 cm. dien lich ngap la 17,6% [13].
Hinh 1. Bien trinh nhiiu nam vd xu the nhiet dp khdng khi trung binh ndm trgm Cdn Tha Sinh vat la ngudn lai nguyen gia trj d DBSCL Tham thyc v i t nai d i y chfl yeu l i rimg n g i p m^n nhu d Ca Mau, Bac Lieu hay rimg trim nhu d Kien Giang, Ddng Thap... Vdi dac diem la mien sdng nudc, he ddng vat noi day rat da dang va phong phu vdi c i c loii e i v i cMm. Vflng DBSCL cd mpt bd phan Bien Ddng v i vinh Thai Lan vdi r i t nMeu bai tdm, bai c i v i han nfla trieu ha mat nudc nudi trdng thuy sin. Cae loai khoang san chfl yeu cua DBSCL l i d i vdi, than bfln. D B S C L co trien vpng dau khi trong vflng them luc dia tiep giap thudc bien Dong v i Vinh Thii Lan.
2.2.2. Dac diem kinh te - xa hoi
Tinh d i n nam 2015, dan sd D B S C L dat gan 17.590.400 ngudi. mat dp dan sd dat 434 ngudi/km^. Trong dd dan sd sdng tgi thanh thi dat gan 4.405.200 ngudi, dan sd sdng tai ndng thdn dat 13.185.200 ogudi.Ti le tang d i n sd la 0,42 % [1]
V l giao due - dao lao: trong nam hoc 2014 - 2015, ti 1? huy dpng hpc sinh ttong dp tudi la 94%; v l y le nam 2015: linh Mnh cham sdc sue khde va ngudn nhan luc y l l cfla vung cdn rit thip so vdi ca nudc; Hien nay D B S C L cd khoang 115 nha may nude vdi edng suit 14.300 mV ngay cung c i p eho c i c dd thi, 2.379 cdng Uinh vdi cdng suat 323.885 mVngiy cung c i p eho nong thdn [14]; Ti le hd dflng dien sinh hoai toan vflng dgt 9 9 , 1 % . Di?n lich nha d trung binh lai viing la 21,4 mVngudi, thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi khoang 105,7 USA/ thing. He sd bat binh d i n g trong phan phdi thu nhap (he sd GINI) li 0,395, d le hd ngheo l i 6,5%.
D B S C L ddng gdp h a n 5 0 % dien dch lfla, 7 1 % dien dch nudi trdng thfly san, 3 0 % gia Ui san xuat ndng nghiep va 54%. s i n lugng thfly san cfla ca nudc. Ngoai ra c i y an qua con d i e san ndi tilijg efla vflng, vdi s y da dang ve sd lugng, cflng n h u chat lugng n g i y c i n g dugc n i n g cao.
Nghe nudi vit dan phat tnen manh. Du lich sinh thai b i t d i u khai sac nhu du lich tren sdng nudc.
vudn, kham p h i cac cu lao [15]. Ngoii ra d D B S C L cd tai nguyen v l dau kM yong t h i m luc dia da d u g c khai thac, cd cac khoang sin vat lieu xay dung n h u set gach ngdi, cat sdi....
Dao Ngpc Hung, Tran Dflc Tuin va Cu Thj Phuang
2.3. CiiuSi bien doi Ichi hau - nu^c - nang Itrgng - ivtmg thyc - cong b^ng xa hoi 2.3.1. Vai tro cfla cac thanh phan trong chuoi
- Tdc dpng ctia bien doi khi hgu
BDKH mang tinh toin cau, tic dpng den tat ca cac qude gia tren the gidi, tuy nMen DBSCL la mpt trong nhflng lanh Ihd chiu lac ddng manh me nhit. BDKH tic ddng dBn tii nguyen nudc, dac biet lam suy giam lugng nudc trong mfla can d DBSCL (Bang 1).
Bdng I. Kich bdn biin dpng tdi nguyin nuac dua tren kick bdn phdt thdi B2
Song Tien H|u
Tram My Thuan
CSnTho
D^c trirng Muaiu Mua can
Miialu Miia can
Mire bien doi so voi tliM Ity n^n (%) Phinm
2020 2,2 -18,9
1,1 -21,1
2030 -9,4 -25,4 -9,0 -27,4
»anB2 2040
0,4 -11,1
-1,5 -12,1
2050 -1.4 -4,8 -1,3 -2,5 Ngudn: [14]
Theo nhu du bao cfla vien nang lugng, vdi tinh loan lac ddng cua BDKH va su tang tnidng trong phat trien kinh te xa hdi, tdng nhu cau dien thuang phim cfla ei vung DBSCL duge dy bao se tang trudng lien tue (Bang 2).
Bdng 2. Su gia tang nhu cau diin thuang pham ctia vung BBSCL Nam
%
2010 0
2015 13,9
2020 13,8
2025 9,2 Ngudn: [16]
BDKH lam thay doi mdi tnrdng sdng cfla cac loai ddng vat va thyc vat, anh hudng den kha nang chdng ehiu cfla cay trdng vit nudi ddi vdi mdi tnrdng sdng. Do nhiel dp gia tang lam eho chu ky sinh trudng cua sinh vat giy benh giim, tang sd sinh val sau benh lam eho cac djch benh phat trien m ^ h han. Nudc bien dang sS thu hep ding ke dien tich ndng ngMep d DBSCL.
Vdi d^c difl nen kinh tl ndng nghiep, ddi tupng hi tdn thuang ldn nhit do BDKH d DBSCL la ndng dan. Ddi vdi dp ludi vi gidi tinh, ddi tugng bi Ion thuong ldn nhil do BDKH la ngudi gia, phy nfl vi tre em.
- Tdc dpng cua nu&e din cdc thdnh phdn trong chuoi
Bdng 3. Tdng lugmg nu&c can dung a BBSCL qua cdc ndm Nganh svdung nw&e
Nong nghiep Thuy san Sinh hoat Cong nghiep Moi tniomg Toan bp
Tong linmg nirfrc can diing viio nam (km^) 2000
29 6 0.413 0.008 11 46
2010 2020 32.23
9 0.646 0 016 13 55
34.16 12.16 0.808 0.02 14 61 Ngudn: [17]
Nudc dieu hda kM h§u, cd vai trd Ithi lim giam tMeu BDKH. Tai DBSCL. nudc dugc sfl
dung nhu mdt m^ng ludi giao thdng quan U-gng efla ngudi dan gdp phan till kiem dang kl nguon
nang lugng. Vdi d|c dilm nln kinh te dya vao tii nguyen nudc, nhu sfl dyng nudc Tai DBSCL
ddi vdi eac linh vyc kinh te - xa hpi ngay cing gia tang (Bing 3). Trong bdi cinh BDKH, han han,
146
Ddnh gid chudi bien doi khi hgu - nuoc - nang luang - luang thirc - cong bdng xd hpi a ddng hang. .
xam nhap man da i n h huang ldn d i n nang lupng, luang thyc va cdng bang xa hdi irong viec cMa se tai nguyen nudc.
- Tdc dpng cua ndng lugng den cdc thdnh phdn trang chudi
Ngudn nang lugng cM'nh phyc vu cac hoai ddng kinh te va sinh hoat d DBSCL tfl he thdng dien ludi qudc gia va xang diu. Chinh vi v a y rieng tai khu vyc DBSCL din nam 2030 sS cd 14 nha may dien than phuc vy nhu cau dien dia phuang. Do BDKH, nhu cau sfl dung nguon nang luang tang ( B i n g 2). N g o i i ra c i c hoat dpng ndng nghiep nhu chan nudi da thai ra mdi trudng mpt lupng ldn ehat thai ndng nghiep. Trong boi canh dd, ngudi d i n DBSCL da bd xung ngudn nang lugng bang c i c ngudn nang lugng sach "ham biogas". Day la giii p h i p su dyng tai nguyen thdng minh flng phd vdi BDKH. Nang lupng c i n iMit the b a m nude tudi tieu va phuc vy sinh hoat. Nhu cau ve nang lugng duge dap flng day dfl cho ngudi dan d DBSCL
- Tdc dpng cua luang thuc din cdc thdnh phdn trong chudi
S i n lugng lfla nude gia tang Uen tyc qua cac nam, g i n 1000.000 tan trong nam 2000 d i n h a n 1408000 t i n trong nam 2015 keo theo lugng kM nha kinh metan Mnh thinh Irong mdi trudng y e m kM lang 1,4 lan, tac ddng den BDKH. Viec gia tang san lugng lua, phat y i l n nudi trong difly s i n lai DBSCL gay khan hiem va d nMem ngudn nude. Tai DBSCL cd rit nhilu dy an biogas vfla xfl li dupc cac chat t h i i trong chan nudi, bao v e moi trudng, vfla tao ra khi dot phuc vu sinh hoat.
Viet Nam la mdt trong nhung qudc gia xuat khiu nhilu gao n h i l tren t h i gidi (Bing 4). Thu nhap tfl xuat khau giflp tang thu nhap cho ngudi ndng dan, tang edng b i n g xa hdi han. Tuy nMen do chat lugng gao chua cao nen gia thinh thap, can ed ap dung cdng nghe mdi, tao s i n p h i m cd sflc cgnh tranh cao.
Bang 4. Sd lieu 3 nu&c xuat khau ggo l&n nhat the gi&i (trieu tan)
stt 1 2 3
Quoc gia India Vietnam Thailand
(2011/12) 10,2 7,7 6,9
(2010/11) 4,6 7,0 10,6
Nguon USDA. 2015 - Vai trd cda cdng bdngxd hpi vat cde thdnh phdn trong chudiTrong nghien cuu, cdng bang xa hdi dugc gidi han v e muc sdng va kha nang tiep can cac ngudn tai nguyen. Theo sd lieu nien giam thdng ke (Bang 5), ve cong bang xa hdi gifla cac ngudi dan d D B S C L cd the nhan t h i y luy sd hd ngheo giam theo thai gian nhung muc sdng trung binh efla ngudi dan v i n thap va ed su phan hda cao giau ngheo, b i t binh dang gidi_, bit binh dang trong tiep can cac ngudn tai nguyen va an t o i n ve sinh thyc pham chua tdt. Sy bat binh dang nay anh hudng tdi y thflc bao v e mdi tnidng trong dd cd mdi tru'dng nudc, flng phd vdi BDKH chua ldi.
Bang 5. Chenh lech thu nhgp binh qudn ddu ngu&i mpt thdng giira nhdm thu nhgp cao nhdt so v&i nhdm thu nhgp thdp nhdt theo gid hipn hdnh tgi BBSCL
Nam 'Dong bang song Ciru Long
Nhom thu nhap cao nhat so vol nhom thu nhip thap nhat Oan) 2010
7
2012 7
2014 1
Ngudn [I]2.3.2. Danh gia tdng ho^ tac dong qua lai cac thanh p h i n trong chuoi
Qua phan lich vai trd cfla cac Ihanh phan trong chuoi v i dya vao cac sd lieu thdng ke [1], cd Ihl sfl li, Idng hgp sd lieu Ihdng qua phuang phap xay dyng ma tran mdi luang t i e gifla cac thanh p h i n trong chuoi (Bang 6),
Dao Ngoc Hiing, Tran Dflc Tuin va Cfl Thj Phuang
Bdng 6. Tdc dpng qua lgi cdc thdnh ph
Bien doi khi
hau
Nirdc
Nang lu-ffng
Luwng thyc
Cong bang xah^i
Bien ddi khi h§iu
- Dieu hda khi hiu
- Gia lang kiii thai va BDKH - Nang lugng s^ch dug phd vdi BDKH Lua nudc, nudi bd tang lupng kM nha kinh, gia tang BDKH
Cdng bang xa hpi anh hud'ng tdi flng phd vgi bien doi khi hau.
Nwdc - Bien ddng mua - BD chl do thfly van - Han han, xam nhap man.
Bam nude
Anh hudng den lugng nudc va chit lugng nudc
Cdng bang trong chia se tii nguyen nude anh hudng ldi ngudn nudc
dn trong chudi tgi Ddng bdng song Nang Ivgng
Tieu hao nhieu nang lugng han.
- 8% nudc lao energy - Dieu hda khi hau, giam nhu cau sfl dyng nanglupng - Giao thdng dudng thdy tiet kiem nang lugng.
Tao nhien lieu sinh hpc nhu Biogas
Cdng bang xa hpi tac dpng tdi dao due sfl dung tai ning lugng
Lmrng thyc - Giam ngudng chdng chiu cfla eay ndng ngMep
- Gia tang dich benh -Mat dat ndng ngMep - 66 % nudc dung cho ndng ngMep - Xam nhap man, h^n han.
nudc bien dang anh hirdng din ndng nghi^.
Nang lupng phuc vu sin xuat, che biln luang thye -Bam nudc
Cdng bing xa hdi inh hudng tdi chat vi lugng luang thyc.
Ciru Long Cdng bSng xa
hpi Ddi tugng bi tdn thuang nMeu nhit:
- Ndng dan - Ngudi gia - Phu nfl - Tre em - Dac biel quan trgng vdi nfing dan (tudi tilu) - Ddi vdi dich vu (chp ndi, du lich)
- Dac biel quan trpng vdi ndng dan (tudi tieu )•
Ndng nghi^
phat tri&i lam xa hpi cdng bang hon.
Dya vao sd lieu lai Hinh 1, Bang 1. Bang 2. Bang 3, xay dyng, didng qua phucmg phap danh gii tucmg quan va phuang irinh hdi quy xay dung dugc md ti d Hinh 2.
Dya tren phan lich ve vai trd cfla cic thanh phan trong chuoi va (Hinh 3) co the nh|n Ihay
Ihiy, BDKH lac ddng din tit ca cac Ihanh phan trong chuoi vdi mflc do khac nhau vi vay BDKH
cd Ihl coi nhu la nhan to cMnh Irong chuoi.
Ddnh gid chuoi bien ddi khi hdu • -nang luang- luang thirc - cong bdng xa hpi & dong bdng ..
Ngudn nudc sdng Me Cdng di lao len dac tnmg kinh te - xa hdi d DBSCL, vai trd quan trong thfl 2 trong ehudi la ngudn nudc eho sin xuat ndng nghiep va nudi trdng thfly san.
Hinh 2. Biiu do the hien mu'c dp bien dpng cua chudi nu&c - nang lugng - lutmg thuc trong boi cdnh bien ddi khi hgu
Tal ca yeu id tren anh hudng den an ninh luong thyc, cy the la san lugng lfla va sin lugng thuy sin, li nhin td tic dgng tryc tiep din sy dn dinh cflng nhu cdng bang xa hpi, phit irien ben vflng. Nhan td cudi cung cd vai Ird quan trong, thiet yeu trong ddi sdng, phuc vu nhu ciu sin xuit va sinh hogl d DBSCL la nang lugng.
Nhu v|y vdi nMn nh|n mdi tuang tie cfla cac thanh phin trong pham vi DBSCL, cd the mo hinh hda vai trd cfla cac thanh phan trong chudi thdng qua so dd SAM tai (Hinh 3).
Hinh 3. Vai trd cda cdc thdnh phan trong chudi a BBSCL
2.3.3. Quan tSm cua xa hpi ve chuSi
Ngay nay, nhflng moi quan tim cfla xi hdi vl cic vin dl dugc ihl hien rd net, khich quan va
de tilp can tren cac phuang tien thdng dn dai chung, die biet tren internet. De dinh gii mflc dp
quan tam mdl van de nio dd, cd the sfl dyng phuang phip phan tich tan sd lap lai mdt thdng lin
nao dd bang viec sfl dung cic lu khda tren cdng cu Um kilm thdng tin Google.
Dao Ngoc Hung, Tran Dflc TuSn va Cu Thi Phuang
Dudi day bai bao tim Meu sy quan tim cfla xa hdi ddi vdi 5 thinh phan cfla chudi. Tuy nhien de cd dugc sd lieu can iMel va khach quan cho ngMen cflu, bai bao da chpn nliflng tfl khda phfl hgp vdi noi dung nghiSn cflu. Vdi moi thanh phin cfla NEXUS chflng ldi chpn 4 cym tfl bao gom cum tir: "Ddng bang sdng Cflu Long" va mot cym tfl lien quan vdi "NEXUS". Cu the cic tfl khoa dung de tim va thdng ke sd lupng cac bai lien quan vdi lu khda do ke dugc trinh bay lai (Bang 7):
Bdng 7. Thong ki muc dp quan tam cua xd hpi den cdc vdn de nghiin cu-u Thanh phan
Bien doi kM hau vi nudc Men ding
Nudc tudi, jian han, xam nhip man
Nang lupng, thfly dien, biogas, dien, xang dau
Lfla, nudi trdng thfly sin
Cdng bang xa hpi, vin de chia se tii nguyen nudc
Tir khda (Dong bang song Ciru Long,) Bien ddj kM hau Nudc bien ding Nang ndng Thdi tiet cyc doan Nudc tudi Lulut Han hin Xam nhap n^fli
Nang lugng' Ddng bang sdng Cuu Long
Biogas d Ddng bang sdng Cflu Long
Dien sinh hoat Xang dau Lfla Nudi ca Nudi tdm Danh bat hai sin Thfly dien sdng Me Cdng Chuyen nudc sdng Me Cdng Nudc sgch
Ddi, ngheo
So lupng thdng tin lien quan 762157
1307698 1984220 704002 1639267 1123533 233750 243744 75000 28336 736903 982662 780240 1280282 1484257 417368 258958 517872 764747 1763584
4,758,077
3,240,294
1,822,901
3,962,147
3,305,161
3. Ket luan
Ddng bing sdng Cflu Long cua Viet Nam la mdl trong ba ddng bang de bj tdn thuang nhil tren the gidi va hau qua do tic dpng cua BDKH la mdl di?n tich rat Idn dit ndng nghiep sS bi tin phi bdi lu lyt, bdi xam nhap ni|n; nang suit ndng ngM|p bi suy giim va sinh ke eua nMeu ngirdi dan, dac biet la ngudi ngheo bi ton h^.
Trong boi cinh neu, cMnh quyin va nguoi dan dja phuang d DBSCL da thi Men mdi quan
tam ngay cang nhilu va sau sic din cac thach thflc cfla BDKH va cac van de gay can cua viec
dim bio an ninh nude, an mnh luang Ihyc, an ninh nang lugng va quyen binh ding cho mpi ngudi
150
Ddnh gid chuoi biin ddi khi hdu - nuac - ndng lugng - luang thyrc - cong bdng xd hold ddng bang...
dan dac biet la M-flng ngudi ngheo. Vin dl dat ra doi vdi DBSCL li lim the nao de nhan dien day dfl cic thach thue. cic vin dl gay cin va lim ra cic giai phap ben vflng de vugt qua thach thflc va gia quyet cac van de dat ra. Nlu nhu tilp can nganh dugc sfl dung phd bien trudc day khdng the cho dugc giai dip thda dang tM cich tiep can chuoi li mdt each tiep can hien dai, da nginh vi da phuang dien cd the giup ngudi dan d DBSCL nhin dipn va lim ra cac giii phap bin vung dl giii quyet cic vin de nay sinh dudi tac ddng cfla BDKH.
Cac ket qua nghien ciiu dugc trinh bay d phin tren da cM ra rang neu xet theo miic dp tac ddng va tam quan trpng cua cac yeu td nam trong chuoi cac mdi quan he d DBSCL tM BDKH phai duge ke den trudc lien, ke tiep li Nudc vi Luang thyc, cudi cflng Nang lugng va Cdng bang xa hdi. Vi vay, chudi mdi quan he tuang tic "BDKH - nudc - luang thuc - nang luang - cdng bang xa hpi" dugc xem chudi quan trpng nhat va die tnmg cho DBSCL. Tuy nhien, theo ket qua dilu tra va phan tich cae dfl lieu tren intemet cho thay mdi quan tam cfla xa hdi ddi vdi cac thanh phin cfla chuoi ndi tren khdng ddng nhat vdi sa do sap xep ndi tren. BDKH li vin de dupc xi hdi quan tam nhat, tiep theo sau li luang thyc, tiep den la nudc vi cdng bang xa hdi va d vi tri cudi cflng la nang lugng.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[I] Tdng cue thong ke, 2015. Niin gidm thong ki Vipt Nam 2015. Nha xuat bin thong ke.
[2] Kakdnen, Mira, 2008. Mekong Delta al the Crossroads: More Control or Adaptation^.
Ambio Volume 37, No. 3: 205-12. Retrieved October 5, 2011 from ProQuest.
[3] htlp://www.icem.com.au/
[4] Golam Rasul & Bikash Sharma, 2015. The nexus approach to water-energy-food security:
an option for adaptation to climate change. Published by Informa UK imiled, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
[5] FAO, 2014. The Water-Energy-Food Nexus A new approach in support of food security and sustainable agriculmre. Food and Agriculture Orgamzation oflhe United Nations Rome.
[6] Unescap, 2013. The Status oj the Water-Food-Energy Security Nexus in Asia and the Pacific region.
[7] Tuyet L. Cosslett, Patrick D. Cosslett, 2014. Water Resources and Food Security in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Springer. USA.
[8] U. Lele., M. Klousia-Marquis, S. Goswami, 2013. Good Governance for Food, Water and Energy Security. Published by Elsevier B. V.
[9] Brian Walker and David Salt, 2006, Resilience Thinking Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World. IslandPress.
[10] Nguyen Dinh Hde, Vu Van Hilu, 2007. Tiip can h? thong trong nghiin ciru mdi tnr&ng vd phdt triin. Nxb Dai hpc Qude gia Ha Ngi.
[II] Pham Do Van Tmng, 2010. Nghien cuu qud Irinh do thi hda vd dnh huang cua nd den sy phdt triin kinh te - xd hdi thdnh phd Cdn Tha. Luin an lien sT.
[12] https://www.brilanniea.com/science/Koppen-elimale-classification
[13] Bp Tii nguyen va Mdi trudng, 2016. Kich bdn biin ddi khi hdu vd nuac bien ddng cho Vipt Nam. Nxb Tai nguyen Mdi Irudng va Bin do Vipt Nam.
[14] Trin Thanh Xuan, Hoang Minh Tuyen, 2013. Tdi Nguyen Nuac Vipt Nam vd qudn li. Nxb Khoa hpc Tu nhien vi Cdng Nghe.
[15] http://hoinongdan.cantho.gov.vn/
151
Dao Ngpc Hflng, Tran Dflc Tu5n va Cu Tlii Phuong [16] hllp;//www.ievn.com.vn/
[17] Tran Thanh Xuan, 2013. Mgng ludi vd tdi nguyen nu&c .'!dng Viet Nam, nhihig bien ddi va thdch thuc. Nxb Khoa hpc vi KT thuit.
. ABSTRACT
Assessing the consequences of climate change - water resource - energy - food - justice social in mekong river delta
Dao Ngoc Hung', Tran Due Tuan^ and Cu Thi Phuong^
'Faculty of Geography. Hanoi National University of Education 'Vietnam Education Publishing House. 'Thuy Loi Umversity As a myriad of studies, there is a relationship between climate change and socio-economic activities of human life and il is shown by the nexus among climate change, water resource, energy, food, and jusdce social. However, there is a difference in the importance of another components as well as the interest of people in them for each regions The smdy applied the approach about nexus and used simultaneous method of regress, analysing, and SAM chart. The result of research show that in Mekong River DeUa the predicted nexus is climate change- water resource - food - power - jusdce social for the effect of another one and is climate change - food - water resource -justice social - energy for the interest of society. Moreover, it is really meaningful for assessing the implication among Ihem in Mekong River Delta because they are major premise that sciences can use for their researches on transformative learning by the sustainable development in Mekong River Delta.
Keywords: Climate change, nexus climate change - water - energy - food - social jusdce, Mekong
RiverDelta, Iransformadve learmng, sustainable development.
