hihig khodn
TOAN CANH - SU KIEN
T T C K V I E T N A M :
M A I T H U
T A P C H I CHLTNG K H O A N
1
Di4n bi^n giao djch
Quan sdt cdc phien giao dich tren hai SGDCK Tp. HCM (HOSE) vd SGDCK Ha Ndi (HNX) ciia thdng 8 vd dau thdng 9 cd thi thdy, biln ddng thi trudng dupc chia ldm 2 cung doan rd net vdi hai trang thdi hodn todn khdc nhau. Cung doan 1: Trong 12 phien dau thdng 8 (tit 1 16/8) Thi truofng tram Idng do tam ly nha dau tu bai on; Cung doan 2 (tut 17/8 7/9) Nha dau tu vdi trang thai tam ly tdi han tu mot so' dong thai ldnh te vi md giup
TTCK khdi sic.
Cd thi thdy, thdng tin quan trpng tdc ddng manh din tdm ly nhd dau tu tai cdc phOn giao dich cua nua ddu thdng 8 Id su biln ddng ciia gid vdng vd bdo cdo tdi chinh bdn nien ciia cdc edng ty niem yet sau khi dupc kiem todn sodt xet. Theo cdc chuyen gia phdn tich, trong khi tinh hinh kinh te vi md ehua ed nhilu thay ddi, thi trudng t h i gidi Uen tilp cd nhiing dien biln xau, nhat Id viee My bi ha xIp hang tin dung, chdu Au ciing phdi loay hoay vdi cude khiing hodng np edng... Cdc nhd dau tu do lo sp kinh t l t h i gidi roi vdo mdt cudc suy thodi kep nen dd bdn thdo cd philu vd dd xd tim noi tni an an todn hon khiln gid vdng leo vpt len miic cao, ed luc phd vd ngudng 1.900 USD/ounce. Chiu tdc ddng eiia gid vdng the gidi, gid vdng trong nudc cung da lap ky luc vdi miie tren 49,6 trieu
SONG HAY XU THE
Chuyen dong tir vi mo
va chuyen bien tam ly nha dau tu
Thi tfwmg chung khoan (TTCK) VIM Nam bwte vao nhung phidn giao dich diu tien cua thang 8 vol nhung bien ddng kho ludng, thi trudng lidn tuc didu chinh va ddo chidu trade sue ndng cua thi tradng vdng. Tuy nhidn, ddn nhimg phidn giao dich cudi cung cua thang 8 vd dau thang 9, gidi ddu tir lai duoc chung kien sv Midi sdc dang kinh ngac cua thj trudng. Vdi hai tudn lidn tidp tdng trudng ca vd didm sd idn thanh khodn, chua thd dinh hinh rd net xu hudng tdng trudng mdf cho TTCK.
Nhung ddu sao, vide cd phidu cua cac nhdm nganh "hot" nhv bdt ddng sdn, chung khoan, ngdn hdng idn luot tao sdng an tuong phii ehdng da goi mo ra nhung dv cdm tdt lanh cho TTCK Vidt Nam trong thdng 9 va cdc thang tidp theo.
ddng/lupng, khiln nhieu nhd dau tu quylt dinh chuyen tiln sang kenh ndy, khiln dd gidm ciia thi trudng xuat hien trd lai d tren cd hai sdn Tp. HCM vd Hd Ndi.
Dieu de ddng nhin thay trong cung doan ndy Id mdu dd trong cdc phien giao dich ludn Idii dt mdu xanh. Ngoai tni phien giao dich 4/8 cd khdi lupng giao dich (KLGD) vd gid tri giao dich (GTGD) tren HOSE tang dot bie'n do Cdng ty qudn ly quy Dragon Capital thuc hien sang nhupng qua giao dich thda thudn hon 74 trieu cd philu STB cho mdt quy dau tu khde, cdc phien cdn lai dupc giao dich khd budn te vdi KLGD binh qudn dat 24,8 trieu cd philu/phien, tuong iing vdi GTGD tren 437,8 ty ddng/phien (giam 5% so vdi thdng 7).
Thuc te, trong thdi gian qua, khi gid chiing khodn Uen tuc sut giam, nhilu nhd dau tu dd phdn vdn giiia 2 kenh: vdng va chutng khodn. Do vdng tang Uen tue, mua vdo hdm nay, ngay sau da thay Idi nen xu hudng dd tien vdo vang
ddng len. Dien biln ndy Mbiea nhiing nhd dau tu ed y dinh giai ngdn vdo chiing khodn trd nen de ddt vd cdn nhdc hon. Trong cung doan ndy ed the thay, dp luc cung gid thap da dupc ben bdn day len khd manh tren ed hai sdn vdi y do thodi lui mdt ddng thai thudng thay khi trien vpng kinh te khdng nhiing trong nudc md ca thi gidi chua ed diem sdng, cdc nhd dau tu thudng ed gdng trdnh cdc tdi san nii ro, trong dd cd chiing khoan.
Tuy nhien, ben cam tien lai kha de ddt va can trpng, chu ylu tap trung vdo viing gid thap. Su gidng
S CJ plilfu d KL mua Itn nliA
4,02%
\ 5 . 1 7 \ 2.63%
HOSE
S Cl( phiru c i KL bin Mn nhit
S Cf phifg ci GT nua Itn nbl'l
3,98%
<< M i A ^ ^ 1 0 , 7 5 %
HOSE
SCfphtfyciGTIiinltnnliA
"ST
e^pW" !,-A3.77%
CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 155 - Thing 9/2011
TOAN CANH - S U KIEN
CO giiia mua vd bdn da khiln cho mat bdng gid Uen tiep hi sut gidm, cdc chi so thi trudng vi the da xdc lap ddy mdi d miic 383,12 diem cho VN Index tai phien 12/8 vd HNX Index dd xdc lap ddy Ueh sii k l tut khi sdn Hd Ndi di vdo hoat ddng cho din nay, vdi miic 65,63 diem (tai phien 9/8).
Ngodi ra, mdt trong nhiing vdii dl gdp phan tao nen su tram Idng trong giao dich eiia TTCK Viet Nam thdi gian nay la viee cdc CtyNY khdng minh bach trong viec lap vd cdng bd Bdo cdo tai chinh (BCTC) bdn nien. Theo ghi nhdn ciia gidi quan sat, rat nhieu BCTC ban nien eiia cdc CtyNY sau khi dupc sodt xet dd cd su chenh lech so vdi cdc BCTC md doanh nghiep dd cdng bd cho cd
5 CS plii^u CO KL mua Idn nhjft
5 Ci phi^u CO KL ban lin nitil
s,5,83%
^24,24%
5 c i phi^u CO GT mua Idn nhA
^9.21%
12,29%
5 ci fMh ti GT ban lin nhit
,^6,10%
25,53%
CtyNY da danh mfi't nilm tin doi v6l cfing chung 66u tu khi khfing minh bgch trong cfing b^
thfing tin.
Anh Bdo Hdn
ddng. Nlu nhu cdc CtyNY cdng bd BCTC bdn nien vdi nhiing con sd khd dil tupng, thi sau khi sodt xet;
hoac qua kilm todn lai ehuyin tii Idi nhieu thdnh lai it, thdm chi Id Id Idn. Ngupc lai, khdng it CtyNY lai cd lpi nhudn tang manh sau sodt xet. Vdn bilt, sai sdt trong qud trinh ldm BCTC Id khd trdnh khdi, ddc biet trong trudmg hpp doanh nghiep cd nhieu cdng ty eon, edng ty Uen kit, ciing nhu cd su hieu vd xii ly so Ueu k l toan khdc nhau so vdi chuan muc kiem todn. Nhung nhiing nam trudc, sai sdt ndy ehi mang tinh chat dom le thi ndm nay da lan rdng trd thdnh hien tupng nhiic nhdi. Mdt thd'ng ke nhanh ciia mang Vietstock cho thay, tinh din eudi ngdy 22/8, dd cd 57 CtyNY cd lpi nhudn chenh lech sau sodt xet, tuomg ling vdi 8,5% sd CtyNY tren thi trudmg tap trung. Doanh nghiep giii vi tri "qudn qudn" khi khodn Id sau sodt xet tdng 334%
la cdng ty cd phan (CtyCP) Dau tu vd xdy dung Dien Meca Vneco, tilp din Id CtyCP Dau tu bat ddng sdn Viet Hdi vdi con so Id gan 250 ty ddng, tdng 17 ty ddng so vdi trudc khi sodt xet! Trong dien bien ngupc lai, khdng it doanh nghiep niem ylt cd lpi nhudn tdng
manh sau sodt xet nhu: CtyCP Dau thuc vdt Tudng An cd lgi nhudn tang tii 11,6 ty ddng len 14 ty ddng; CtyCP Bdt gidt NET tdng.
tut 32,7 ty ddng len 35,3 ty ddng...
Vdi nhiing thuc te ndy, cdc nhd quan sat cho rdng, dudng nhu phia sau cac con sd cdng bd lpi nhudn Id su ndng len, ddt xudng
"cd chii y" khi nhieu doanh nghiep mud'n gidu Id hay bdt lai, em tin tdt vd che gidu tin xd'u nham mue dich true lpi. Chinh su khdng minh bach trong cdng bd thdng tin ciia khdng it CtyNY da ddnh mat nilm tin ddi vdi cdng chiing dau tu, khiln thi trudng vdn di tram Idng lai them tram Idng hom.
Tuy nhien, sau nhieu ngdy am dam, bdt dau tut phien giao dich ngdy 17/8, thi trudng da mang lai nhilu bat ngd cho nhd dau tu khi thanh khodn dupc "gidi phdng", chi sd VN Index di len vd vupt mdc 390 diem thdnh cdng, chdt phien d 393,46 diem. Phien ndy ciing ghi nhdn miic tdng tich cue d tat ca cdc nhdm nganh chii chdt tren TTCK Viet Nam nhu ngdn hang, bat ddng san... Cd the ndi, sau mdt thdi gian khd ddi chiing kiln thi trudng roi xudng miic
"hap ddn" nhung lai khdng xuat hien ddng luc de di len khi tinh hinh kinh t l vi md chua ed nhieu ehuyin biln, tdm ly nhd dau tu da cham tdi miic gan nhu hit kien nhdn vd phien 17/8 dudng nhu da giiip edi bd dp luc tam ly. Tut trang thdi giao dich cam chiing vd nhdm chdn diln ra trong thdi gian kha ddi, thi trudmg da lihanh ehdng biit phd khi luc mua dupc day manh, khiln tdm ly nhd dau tu dupc cdi thien ddng ke theo chieu hudng lac quan. Vdi phien tdng dilm ndy, VN Index da vupt qua dupe ngudng khdng cu khd manh
21
So 155 - Thing 9/2011 CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM
TOAN CANH • SU KIEN
trong ngdn han, keo theo xu hudng di len cua thi trudng trong cdc phiin cudi thdng 8 vd dAu thdng 9. Trong 15 phien giao dich tut 18/8 6/9, mac dii cd mdt so phien dieu chinh, nhung nhin chung TTCK Viet Nam dupc ghi nhdn Id cd dpng thdi dao chieu khi KLGD tren HOSE tai cdc phien lien tue tang vd ludn duy tri d miic trung binh tren 30 trieu chiing khodn mdi phien, tuong iing vdi GTGD tren 600 ty ddng/phien...
Cling vdi su khdi sac ciia thanh khoan, gid nhieu ma cd philu Cling phuc hdi tdng manh trd lai.
Theo ghi nhdn ciia gidi quan sdt, su bung len rd net nhat ciia TTCK phdi k l den phien 29/8, khi VN Index chinh thiic vupt qua ngudng khdng eu 410 dilm, vd tao sdng Uen tiep trong nhieu phien giao dich. Sd Ueu thdng ke 7 phien giao dich (ke tii 29/8 7/9) cho thay, KLGD tren san HOSE ludn duy tri d miic tren 40 trieu chiing khodn/phien, iing vdi GTGD deu vupt 600 ty ddng/phien, thdm chi vupt 800 ty ddng nhu tai hai phien 4/9 va 5/9 khi dat gid tri tuomg ling Id 805,26 ty ddng vd 812,1 ty ddng. Trong khi trudc dd, cho dii thanh khodn tai mdt sd phien tdng vpt, nhung hau het diu gay khiie, chi ddng cao mdt phien rdi gidm ngay sau dd, chii khdng lap lai lien tuc nhu d cdc phien cudi thdng 8, ddu thdng 9.
Sdn Hd Ndi ciing chiing kiln su dot phd vdi thanh khodn 2 phien ngdy 1/9 va 5/9 diu cd GTGD tren 800 ty ddng/phien - miic giao dich cao nhat trong hon hai thdng qua.
Cd the thay trong eung doan ndy, su than trpng, de ddt ciia nhd dau tu thudng thay thdi gian qua dudmg nhu: da bi laii dt bdi mdt ddng luc mdi hiing khdi hom. Dang
chii y hon la su quay trd lai tdng tran ciia mdt nhdm cdc cd phieu bat dpng san, nhdm cd phieu bluechips tiep tuc ndng dd cho thi trudng, trong khi nhdm ed phieu nganh chiing khodn vdn dupc ua thich ciia gidi ddu co da cd sdng len xudng khd rd rdng. Su quay trd lai cua ddng tien vao TTCK cdn dupc ghi nhdn bdi suf mua vdo khd manh tii phia cdc CtyCK Cung trong cung doan nay, cdc CtyCK da day manh mdng tu doanh vdi xu hudng mua vdo.
Thdng ke 9 phien giao dich lien trudc ngdy 1/9 cho thdy, tu do inh tir cdc CtyCK chuyen sang mua rdng. Ddng chii y, giao dich eiia khdi CtyCK tang manh: I'iiia thdng 8 chi dat vdi trdm ngdn cd philu/phien vdi xu hudng bdn rdng, gid tri giao dich mdi phien mdt vdi ty ddng, thi din cudi thdng 8 da tdng them len 1 2 trieu cd philu/phien, tuomg iing vdi gid tri dat hdng chuc ty ddng.
Hoat ddng tich cue ciia nhdm CtyCK cho thay, cdc edng ty ndy da lac quan hom ddi vdi TTCK vd dang tich cue tdi co cau danh muc dau tu, chuyen tut bdn rdng sang mua rdng.
Y6u t6 CO ban giup thi trudng h6i phyc
Phdn tich, md xe ve didn birai eiia thi trudng trong thdi dilm ndy, theo cdc chuyen gia, cd eac ylu td CO ban giiip thi trudng hdi phuc nhu sau: Thd nhat, trong cdc phien giao dich tut ngdy 17/8 - 6/9, biie tranh kinh t l thdng 8 dd xuat hien nhiing diem sdng khi cd nhiing ehuyin biln tich cue tut viec lam phdt da ha nhiet (miic tdng ciia chi sd gid tieu dung chi Id 0,93% so vdi thdng trudc, ddnh dau tdc dp tang thap nhat trong
vdng 11 thdng ke tii thdng 9/2010), gid xdng dau va gid ca eac mdt hang thiet ylu dieu chinh gidm; thanh khodn ciia he thdng ngdn hdng dn dinh, du trd ngoai hdi tdng tut 7 tuan nhdp khau (thdng 7) len gan 8 tuan nhdp khau (khoang 15 ty USD, tinh din cudi thdng 8/2011). Mac du cdn phdi ddi mdt vdi cdc thdch thiic rat ldm nhu lai suat vdn a miic cao vd np cdng dang tdng nhanh ehdng (hien bdng 58%
GDP, trong khi 4 ndm trudc dd mdi d miic 35% GDP), tuy nhien khdng it chuyen gia cho rang, nen kinh te Viet Nam dang ed nhiing chuyen ddng tich cue ca ve thuc luc vd cdch thiic dieu hdnh... Tat ed nhiing dieu ndy da tdc dpng tich cue len tdm ly ciia nhd dau tu vd dang nhen nhdm nilm hy vpng ve mdt chu ky tdng trudng mdi ciia thi trudng.
Thii hai, su khdi sac ciia TTCK trong nhiing phien cudi thdng 8, dau thdng 9 dupc xuat phdt chii ylu tut ddng thdi tich cue tut dieu hdnh vi md, khi Thdng ddc Ngan hang Nhd nudc (NHNN) cam kit dua Idi suat ve 17 19% trong thdng 9. Ngay sau khi Thdng doc NHNN Nguyin Van Binh nham chiic, Thdng ddc da dua ra 3 thdi^
diep quan trpng Id dn dinh ty gia;
dn dinh thi trudng vdng vd giam Idi suat tren thi trudng tien te. Va quan trpng nhat Id, quan diem ciia Thdng ddc cho rdng thi trudng tien te se chii ylu thue hien chiic ndng huy ddng vd cung iing vdn ngdn han, cdn chiic ndng ddn vdn trung vd ddi han khdng phai la ciia he thdng ngdn hdng ma la cua TTCK Viec tach bach rd rang vai trd ciia he thdng ngdn hang va vai trd ciia TTCK se tao dieu Men de TTCK phdt trien, cdc doanh
CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM So 155 - Thine 9/2011
TOAN CANH - SU KIEN
^an^ming khoaniSfciski^ GIAO DICH CUA NHA DAU TU NUflC NGOAI TREN HCK THANG 8/2011 t U
Ngiy
1/R»nii WR/9ni1 a/flffnii 4/S/9ni1 .s/8/?nii 8ffl/?nii 9/8/?nii in/8/?()ii i i / 8 / ? n i i 12/8/2011 15/8/2011 16/8/2011 17/8/2011 18/8/2011 19/8/2011 22/8/2011 23/8/2011 24/8/2011 25/8/2011 26/8/2011 29/8/2011 .in/8/?nii 31/8/2011
(: ,:, HOSE KhKI lufng
mua (CK) .1 R3fl ?qn
? fi?9 Rnn
? 245 990 7B.5??78?
2.5R3 140 4 639 450 7.564 403 562887?
2.455.710 1.847.206 940.060 1.713.390 1.549.170 4.669.720 2.197.370 1.791.410 3.947.690 3.316.450 5.066.371 2.468.100 2.486.370 2.1?0.9B0 5.198.140 Ting etna I i n i i 7 1 l i u
Ting GT mua (ng^n ddng)
150 663 919 69 094 919 53 R9? 492 1 253 551 245 66 647 39R 91 064.6.56 144 101 596 109.003 827 104.718.3,18 52.051.857 21.291.986 53.875.359 35.792.162 103.660.309 53.147.398 36.559.214 87.176.383 73.912.531 151.515.597 67.211.105 68.339.555 61.283.800 141.6.54.051 3 iLsn 1.111 gnn
KhOI liffng bin(CK) 2 460 460 3695170 2 265 250 79 090 152 7.184510 5 R90 400 1.833 580 7.668.342 2.478.610 2.722.646 1.020.370 1.298.690 2.418.170 3.524.040 2.839.560 2.365.570 1.698.251 4.405.840 1.819.841 2.253.160 3.472.620 2.756.430 5.319.970 i4.saRii»»
Tiing GT b^n (ng^n ddng)
67 335 983 197 021 968 61 455 77(1 1 419 834 874 7? 425 274 133 683 226 .56.578.334 162.492.117 74.196.737 62.956.807 20.399.102 42.095.064 57.013.211 71.607.084 75.567.932 53.413.478 48.675.053 113.759.961 68.764.675 65.001.348 95.145.318 73.595.386 147.045.317 S?40 064 070
HNX --im Khdi lirgng
mua (CK) 170 000 693 fiOO 12R700 4R7 500 1 744 300 194.900 347.400 299.700 669.400 132.500 348.200 390.000 1.229.600 1.315.000 406.400 545.600 1.411.200 625.900 695.300 292.300 865.600 333.400 7.628.600 m ims inn
Tdng GT mua (ngin ddng)
2 071 220 13 196 790
1 935 790 5 858 490 23 505 330 9 838 990 4.341 140 3.378930 7.974.520 1.355910 3.757.980 3.876.760 13.374.600 15939480 5.081.830 7.206.510 21.348.840 9.644.920 9.850.160 3.641.540 14.945.440 4.942 790 100.171.490 279.4EB.fiBa
KhOIiggng binICKI
306 700 1 795 000
27 400 796 300 1 469 900 1 043.100 349 600 525.600 598.300 289.400 604.200 346.100 1.161.700 534.900 1.011.400 1.356.500 1.907.400 486.700 207.500 464.400 1.602.800 1.291.400 4.636.100 99 MS dnn
Tdng GT bin (ngin ddng)
3.402.990 22.408.710 183.080 8.062.070 18.132.350 12.266.330 4.171.710 5.209.410 6.442.500 1.883.980 7.602.550 3.931.030 12.698.100 5.674.490 12.362.530 17.322.140 25.834.710 6.474.140 3.058.570 5.933.360 22.180 18.787.050 64,020.590 288.042.390
nghiep se tiing budc bilt cdch dilu tilt ngudn vdn ciia minh giiia 2 thi trudng ndy. Cd the ndi day la mdt dilm nhdii mdt su ddi mdi vl nhdn thiic va tu duy dilu hdnh Uen quan den TTCK Tuy vdn cdn nhieu y kiln khdc nhau xung quanh thdng diep ndy, nhutng rd rang, quyet tdm ciia Thdng ddc dupc the hien rat rd trudc ngudi dan vd each thurc thuc hien nhuimg quyet sdch nay cung dang thi hien mdt su ddi mdi thuc su. Hien tai, thdng diep ndy buoc dau dd trd thanh hien thuc khi cdc NHTM thuc hien giam Idi suat theo ehi dao eiia NHNN. Mac dii viec giam Idi suai dien biln cdn chdm vd ehua dap liog ky vpng ciia cdng ddng doanh nghiep nhung bdt dau cd tin hieu khd quan de nhd dau tu ngdng dpi.
Mac khdc, Thdng tu 22/20117TT- NHNN siia ddi Thdng tu
13/2010/TT-NHNN quy dinh vl ty le bdo dam an todn trong hoat ddng ciia td chufC tin dung dupe NHNN ban hanh ngdy 30/8/2011 cho phep hiiy bd ty le cap tin dung tuf ngudn vdn huy ddng tai cdc quy dinh trudc dd. Theo dd, ke tut ngdy 179/2011, cdc NHTM dupc phep cho doanh nghiep, dan cu vay tren 80% vdn huy ddng. Dieu ndy gdp
phan giiip ngudn vdh cho nen kinh t l trd nen ddi ddo hon, them cP sd de ha lai suat, ddng thdi tdc ddng tich cue din tdm ly nhd ddu tu.
Thii ba, gia vdng t h i gidi sau khi vupt miic ky luc 1.900 USD/ounce, da ed phien lao ddc manh. Cdn tai Viet Nam, sau khi vdng lap ky luc tren 49,6 trieu ddng/lupng tai phien 23/8 thi nay dang dupc giao dich quanh miic tren 47,5 trieu/lupng... Chinh su bap benh ciia kenh dau tu vdng da keo ddng vdn tuf thi trudng vdng ve vdi chiing khodn.
Nhu vdy, trong eung doan ndy, TTCK ddn nhdn nhieu thdng tin tich cue tuf kinh te vi md, theo dd ky vpng lai suat ha nhiet trong thang 9 da ddn dat ed hai chi sd chiing khodn hen tue tdng dilm.
Tuy nhien, dilu khiln cho chuyen gia phdn tich lo n^ai Id cd mdt lupng cung Idn dang hien dien ludn nhdm nhe tim thdi diem thich hpp di ehdt lai vd dilu ndy se tdc ddng ngupc trd lai tdi tdm ly nhd ddu tu. Thuc tl, sau phien tdng diem manh ciia VN Index vd KLGD todn thi trudng dat miic cao gan 53 trieu chiing khodn tai phien 1/9 thi sau ngdy nghi ll Qudc khdnh 2/9, TTCK ed bieu hien di ngang khi eung cau bat
dau CO keo nhau, giii chdn VN Index khi nhich len chua dat 1 diem/phien. Mac dii phien 7/9 VN Index ed miic tdng tdi 7,83 diem nhung theo cdc chuyen gia phdn tich, diln biln thi trudng hien tai cd ylu td tdm ly chi phdi rat Idn.
Cd the thay, ehinh sdch gidm lai sudt ciia NHNN phan ndo da lam din long doanh nghiep vd gidi dau tu, nhumg ddng sau ddng thdi nay dudng nhu vdn edn an chiia nhilu lo du bdi dilu kien cP ban de giam lai suat Id lam phdt phdi gidm, nhung hien lam phdt vdn d miie cao trong khi NHNN lai phdt di tin hieu gidm lai suat trudc thi theo nhilu nhdn dinh rat dl day ky vpng lam phdt tang cao, se khiln kinh t l vi md cdng trd nen bat dn. Hon niia, trong bdi eanh lam phdt cao vd kinh t l vi md ehua dn dinh thi vide ha lai suat nhanh se nhu "con dao hai ludi", se tao ra nhiing he luy khdng may tich cue nhu tdc ddng vdo khd ndng sinh Idi ciia ngdn hdng khi mat bdng Idi suat thap, khiln "vi the* eiia ddng tiln Viet Nam gidm, tao dp luc tdng ty gid. Ddng thdi, tien dupc cho vay nhilu, cung tiln ddi ddo hon, se lai gdp phan lam gia tdng lam phdt. Do vdy, pham vi anh hudng ciia chinh sdch ha lai suat ndy din ddu vd nd cd tdc ddng nhu the' ndo din nin kinh t l thi sdm hay mudn ciing se dupc thdi gian kilm chiing. Nhumg dii sao, thdng diep ha lai suat tuf phia NHNN ciing da nhen nhdm trong gidi dau tu nilm hy vpng vl suf "cdi md" hon trong mdt sd ehinh sdch mdi ciia cdc ep quan qudn ly vd mang din cho TTCK mdt sac thdi mdi tuy vdn cdn qud sdm de khang dinh rd net vl siic vupn vd xu hudng ciia thi trudng trong nhiing thdng tdi. ®
23
So 155 - Thing 9/2011 CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM
