DAU 11/TAI CHINH m i l
BIAI PHAP BINH ON VA KIEM SOAT THI TRl/CfNG VANG
•
N g u y i n Thi C a m Thiiy NHNN Chi n h d n h t i n h B a c K a n
P
hdn ldn nhu cdu vdng d Vi$t Nam diicfc ddp itng bdi vdng nhgp khdu, vi vgy gid vdng trong nitdc diin bien cdng chieu vdi gid vdng the gidi, tuy nhien gid vdng trong nitdc thiidng cao hcfn gid vdng the gidi, gdy khd khdn cho cdc nhd hog,ch dinh chinh sdch dieu hdnh nen kinh te. Vi?c dda ra cdc gidi phdp thdm gidm gid vdng trong thdi diem hi^n nay mang mgt y nghia quan trgng, gdp phdn kiem che lg.m phdt, on dinh kinh te vi md. Diia theo ly thuyet kinh te hgc, tdc dgng ten cung vd cdu vdng, bdi viet dita ra mgt sd gidi phdp nhdm binh dn vd kiem sodt thi Iriidng vdng.D a t v a n d^ cu de chuyin quyIn sd hffu hang hda. Dilu ndy lam cho t i l n trong Iffu thdng tdng len, Diln bien gid vdng trong thdi gian qua da. ma Ngdn hang Trung ffdng khdng the kiem tdc ddng rd't ldn de'n vigc dilu hdnh chinh sodt dffgc. Do dd viee nghien cffu gidi phdp 3deh t i l n te eua Ngdn hang Nhd nffdc binh dn vd kiem sodt thi trifdng vdng trong
; N H N N ) Viet Nam ndi rieng va n I n kinh giai doan hien nay mang mgt y nghia thffc te' ndi chung. Mdt Iffgng vd'n r a t ldn dffgc t i l n quan trgng.
iffa vdo thi trffdng vdng, do dd vd'n cho
l o a t ddng san xud't kinh doanh suy giam. Thifc t r a n g t h i trtfdfng v a n g Ddng thdi, tdng gid vdng cung dnh hffdng
:ieu cffc de'n thi trffdng bdt ddng sdn do Thi tritdng vdng the gidi igffdi ddn cd thdi quen dinh gid nhd dd't
3ang vdng, gdp phan ldm thi trffdng bdt Trong ndm nam qua, gid vdng d i l n bie'n idng sdn ngdy mdt t r a m lang hdn. Td chffc phffc tap, khd Iffdng, tuy nhien xu hffdng
;in dung gap rui ro trong vide huy ddng vd tdng gid la chu dao.
;ho vay bang vdng; khdng chu ddng dffgc
igudn vd'n do mdt sd' Iffgng khdng nhd Giai doan cudi ndm 2007-2009, cudc khung Igffdi gffi t i l n rut t i l n gffi tie't kiem d l hoang the' gidi dd tdc ddng manh me de'n ii mua vang. D l thu hut dffgc t i l n gffi tiet gid vdng. Md dau Id khung hoang tin dung d e m trong ddn, ede to chffc tin dung ddng nhd dd't d My, ldm sup dd hdng trdm ngdn oat tdng ldi sud't huy ddng, keo theo tdng hdng ldn nhd. Chinh phu My huge phdi di sud't cho vay, gdy dnh hffdng rd't xd'u dffa ra n h i l u gdi cffu trg cdc ngdn hdng, le'n boat ddng s a n xud't kinh doanh. Ddc cdng ty tdi ehinh, nham loai bd tdi sdn xd'u.
)idt khi gid vdng bie'n ddng thd't thffdng, Tuy nhidn n I n kinh td' My van phuc hdi thid'n cho n h i l u ngffdi ddn hi thua Id, xet chdm, ty le t h a t nghigp van d mffc cao (tren
rong dai b a n se gay bd't lgi cho n I n kinh 10%). Ddng USD md't gid so vdi cdc ddng e. Them vdo dd, n I n kinh td' Vidt Nam t i l n manh tren the' gidi, tdc ddng tdng gid Iff trff qua n h i l u vang, vdng tham gia ldn vdng. Gid ndng Iffgng trdn the' gidi tang hffc n a n g Iffu thdng h a n g hda (mua ban cao, ddc bidt gid dau tang manh, ldm cho tdt ddng san), nghia Id nd dffgc ldm ddn gid vdng bie'n ddng tdng cung chilu. NHTW i d l p h a n dnh gid cd h a n g hda, Id cdng cdc nffdc nhff Nga, Trung Qud'c, Quy Tin thdc
cdngngh# n g d n H d n g
Sd'67'Thang 10/2011
I I
IIDAUTI/TAICHINH
v d n g ldn nha't t h e gidi (SPDR Gold Trust), cac n h a dau tff ca n h d n va nha dAu tff cd td chffc t a n g nhu cau ndm giff vdng do xem v a n g la k e n h dau tff an t o a n nhd't, vi vdy dd ddy gia v a n g t d n g t r e n lOOOUSD/ounce (Dd t h i 1).
1)6 thi 1: D i l n bifi'n gia vkng (thang 9/2006 - 9/2011) 5 Year Gold
2000 1800 1600 S 1400 8 1200 j.1000 I 800
600 .»^' 400 ZOO
Hiah 1988.as Lou 961.se
J:
ZOOO 'iflOO
1600 il400 11200 11000 iSOO
600 J400 w w w . k i t c o t c o m 1200
I I
Based on Hew York Closgi I
NguSn: ivww. kitco.com
Giai doan ndm 2009 den thdng 9/2011, gid v a n g tie'p tuc xu hffdng t d n g , l i e n tuc ldp cdc ky luc, do tdc d d n g xd'u eua nhffng bd't dn v l k i n h te' vd c h i n h t r i the' gidi. Kinh te' My phuc hdi c h d m , thie'u dn d i n h ; n I n k i n h te' T r u n g Qud'c p h d t t r i e n qud n d n g ; k h u n g h o d n g ng d i l n r a d m g t so' nffdc khu vffc sff d u n g d d n g t i l n chung chdu Au nhff Hy L a p , Iceland, Bd Ddo N h a , Tdy Ban N h a , Y; bd't dn c h i n h t r i giffa T r i l u T i e n , H a n Quo'c vd khu vffc T r u n g Ddng. H i e n nay, k i n h te' the' gidi hi de n d n g bdi d p Iffe l a m p h d t , suy
B a n g 1: Di^ trtf v a n g c a c nifdc v a t o chvtc
Don vi tinh: tS'n STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Qu£(c gia ho$c to chiic My
Quy Tiln t4 Quc(c te (IMF) Lidn bang Nga
Trung Qu£(c hfhat BSn An BO
NHTW chau Au (ECB)
12/2010 8.133,5 2.846,7 775,2 1.054,1
765,2 557,7 522,7
Th^ng 8/2011 8.965,6
3.101 926,9 1.161,6
843,3 614,6 553,3 NguSn: Ngpc Quy&n (2011)
B6 thi 2: D i l n bi^n gid vjing thS' gidi tit ng&y 16/9/2010 - 14/9/2011 1 Year Gold
2000
High 1808.98 Low 1288.28
NguSn: www. kitco.com
Based on Neu York Clnsp
kXtco.qom
' 1 H
2000 1900 leoo 1700 1600 ISOO 1400 1300 1200 UOO
Cdngnghe n g d n K d n g
Sd'67'Thang 10/2011
t h o d i , ng cdng, d d n g t h d i NHTW cdc nffd{
tid'p t u c t d n g dff trff v d n g ( B a n g 1), gdf p h d n ddy gid v d n g t d n g cao (Dd t h i 2).
Thf triidng vdng trong niidc
P h d n ldn nhu edu v d n g d Vidt Nam (95%) dffgc d d p ffng bdi v d n g n h d p k h ^ u , vi vay gid v d n g t r o n g nffdc d i e n b i e n cung chieu vdi gid v a n g t h e gidi (Dd t h i 3, Dd thi 4).
Dd thi 3: DiSn bifi'n gia viing nfim 2010
. v»noSJC(tr.aSng/iuono) • vtna re (usD/oi)
Ngudn: Vietcombank.com.vn
B6 thi 4: B i l u d i l n b i i n gid vikng SJC tilr thdng 01/2011 - 9/2011 50.0Q0-,
CDB«n
34.000-
J v F«b Mw Atr «•« S«
Ngudn: Vneconomy.un
Gid v d n g t r o n g nffdc thffdng cao hdn gi^
v d n g the' gidi (cd t h d i d i l m gid vdng trong nffdc c h e n h Igeh so vdi gid thd' gidi la 2 t r i d u ddng/lffgng). Do sff t a n g d d t bien cua gid v d n g thd' gidi; t i n h h i n h l a m phdt cua V i e t N a m l i d n t u c gia t d n g tff n d m 2004, d d n g n d i td md't gid; t d m ly dau tff ki^m ldi cua ngffdi d d n , khid'n cdu v l vang gia t d n g m a n h . T r o n g k h i dd cdc k h o a n dau tff ha'p d d n hffn v d n g k h d n g d l ddng tin kid'm. D^u tff v a o bd't d d n g s a n dffgc xef Id m d t k d n h diu tff m a n g l a i l d i n h u d n cao tuy n h i e n h i g n n a y t h i trffdng bd't ddng sal t r o n g nffdc d a n g "ddng b d n g " 6 cdc nii(}(
p h d t t r i e n , ddu tff tid't k i g m c u a ngffdi dSi chu yd'u v a o bdo h i l m , song l i n h vffc ni]
DAU T(/TAI CHINH I I I I
eon xa la vdi n h i e u ngifdi d a n V i e t N a m . Cdc l o a i gia'y td cd gid ne'u hd'p d d n t h i it k h i ngffdi d a n tie'p c a n dffgc, con ne'u tie'p c a n dffgc t h i chi la loai it h a p d a n n h u cdng t r d i C h i n h phu (Ngd Hffdng, 2006).
G i a i p h a p b i n h o n g i a v a n g
Theo ly thuye't k i n h te' hgc, tdc dgng qua l a i giffa t d n g cung vd g i a m cau (Hinh 1) se l a m gid v d n g gidm.
H i n h 1: Can b a n g c u n g cdu t h i trvCiing v a n g
». S.
Po
Pi
QiQb Q
PQ! Gia v d n g t a i t h d i d i e m b a n dau
P^: Gid v d n g t a i t h d i d i e m dd d i l u ehinh QQ! Lffgng v d n g t a i t h d i d i l m b a n d a u Qj^: Lifgng v d n g t a i t h d i d i e m dd d i l u chinh DQ: Cau v d n g t a i t h d i d i e m b a n d a u
D^: Cau v d n g t a i t h d i d i e m da d i l u c h i n h SQ: Cung v a n g t a i t h d i d i e m b a n dau
Sj^: Cung v d n g t a i t h d i d i e m dd d i l u e h i n h Tdng cung cho thi tritdng vdng cd the thiic hi4n qua:
T a o d i l u k i e n eho cdc doanh n g h i e p k i n h d o a n h v d n g t a n g Iffgng n h d p k h a u . Khi t d n g Iffgng n h d p k h a u se d a n de'n cau v l ngoai te t d n g , de d a m bao cho d i l u n a y k h d n g t d c d d n g qud l d n de'n t h i trffdng ngoai t e , n h d nffdc n e n cho c h i n h sdch d a m bdo cung ffng du ngudn n g o a i te ddp ffng nhu edu n h d p k h a u . Cd ke' h o a c h dff bdo nhu cau t h i trffdng v d n g t r o n g tffng t h d i k y . d l cd'p chi t i e u cho p h e p cac td chffc t i n dung, doanh n g h i e p xud't, n h d p k h a u v d n g vd p h d i d a m b a o d a p ffng du n h u cau t r o n g nffdc. Ddng t h d i se thffc h i e n cdng b d t h d n g t i n r g n g r d i t r e n cdc phffffng t i e n t h d n g t i n d a i
ehiing v l t i n h h i n h n h d p k h a u v a n g , n h a m t a c dgng on dinh t d m ly cua ngffdi d a n .
T a n g khai t h d c v a n g trong nffdc. H i e n nay, viec khai t h d c v a n g trong nffdc chffa dffgc quan ly c h a t che, ehu ye'u Id khai k h a c n h d , pbfforng t i e n ky t h u d t tho sof, phd hoai mdi trifdng c a n h quan noi khai t h a c . Do dd n h a nffdc can xay dffng ke hoach, chinh sdch quan ly, nhffng quy dinh cu the lien quan de'n b o a t dgng khai t h d c v a n g trong nffdc, ddng t h d i k i e m soat c h a t viec bdn vdng ra thi trifdng, t r d n h t i n h t r a n g xud't v d n g Idu qua b i e n gidi. Cdn xdy dffng che' t d i xff p h a t n d n g dd'i vdi viec xud't Idu vdng.
Nhd ni/dc nen xdy dffng ke hoach dff trff vang nhif thdnh lap trung tdm dff trff vdng qud'c gia vi hien nay vdng dang dffgc xem nhff Id mgt loai t i e n te quo'c t e , ddy se la cdng cu hffu hieu binh dn thi trifdng cua nhd nifdc.
Gidm cdu vdng cd the thiic hi^n qua:
T d n g cffdng huy dgng t i e n gffi tie't k i e m VND b a n g nhffng t i e n ich h d p d d n , t a n g t i n h t h a n h k h o d n eho t i l n gffi tie't k i e m , chinh sdch chdm sdc k h d c h h a n g trifdc, t r o n g vd sau giao dich de g i a m Iffgng t i l n dau tff vdo vdng.
Dffa r a cdc k e n h dau tff h d p d a n vd t a o d i l u k i e n cho mgi ngifdi cd t h e de d d n g tie'p c a n vdi nhffng k e n h dau tff dd. Nhffng k e n h dau tff h d p d d n t r o n g d i l u k i e n V i e t N a m h i e n nay nhif t r d i phie'u cua C h i n h p h u , ed p h a n cua cdc doanh n g h i e p n h d nffdc d a n g dffgc cd p h d n h d a . Nhd nffdc c a n ed m d t e h i n h sdch cu t h i de nhffng ngifdi d d n cd t h u n h d p thd'p cd cof hdi tie'p cdn vdi nhffng k h o d n d a u tff n d y vi h i e n n a y chi cd cdc n h d ddu tff ldn mdi tie'p c a n dffgc.
C a n t a o r a nhffng ea h d i cho nhffng ngffdi tid't k i g m n h d , nhffng ngffdi d d n n h d n bdi thffdng d cdc khu g i a i t o a dffgc n h d n m d t so' ed p h d n ffu ddi de d n d i n h cudc sd'ng, bode t a o d i l u k i g n cho hg mua m d t ty le t r d i phie'u c h u y i n ddi tff ede d o a n h n g h i e p
Cdng nghg n g d n H d n g
So'67'Thang 10/2011
I I I I DAU Tir TAI CHINH 1
n h a nffdc cd p h d n , doanh n g h i d p dffgc h i n h t h d n h t r d n dd't dai ciia hg hi gidi t o a . Ndu k h d n g nhff t h d thi nhffng khodn thu n h a p ndy d l ddng bid'n t h d n h vdng bode bi chi tieu phung phi. Ne'u cd ke hoach thu h u t so' t i l n dd vdo sdn xud't kinh doanh, thi nhd nffdc, xd hdi vd bdn t h d n hg d i u cd lgi, t r d n h nhu cau tieh trff vdng t d n g len k h d n g can thie't.
Sdn giao dich vdng qud'c gia, Trung tam kiem dinh vdng (giup gidm cau ve cac loai vang mieng, loai vdng dd qua kiem dinh chat Iffgng), giao cho N H N N Viot Nam quan ly, Gdp phdn quan t r g n g giiip c(/ quan chffc nang dieu h d n h thi trffdng vanf,^ theo diing dinh hffdng Cbinh phu, ddng thcri lam cho thi trffdng vdng b o a t dgng l a n h m a n h hieu qua.
L a m td't cdng t d c t h d n g tin, tuyen truyen eho mgi ngffdi d d n : viec gia va ng t a n g khong tdc dgng de'n gid cdc m a t h a n g tieu dung, k h d n g tdc dong de'n ddi song n h a n dan.
Cdc giai p h d p binh dn va kiem soat thi trffdng vdng n e n dffgc thiic hien drjng bo, tao n e n tdc dung t d n g h g p . Kiem scat duoc thj trffdng ndy k h d n g chi cd y nghTa trong giai doan h i e n nay, md con co vai tro quan trong trong tffang lai, gdp phdn on dinh kinh te vi md, d a m bdo xd hdi phdt t r i e n ben vOfng' Cdc td chffc t i n dung tich cffc huy ddng vd'n
b a n g vdng, n h a m thu h u t Iffgng vdng vdt chd't n a m giff trong ddn t h d n g qua lgi tffc h d p ddn, linh b o a t sdt vdi t h i trffdng, khi khdch h d n g cd nhu cdu can r u t trffdc b a n , ngdn h d n g p h d i ddp ffng kip t h d i . Ngdn h d n g se chuyen vd'n huy ddng b a n g vdng t h d n h VND cho vay ddu tff vdo s d n xud't, k i n h doanh, t a o dd t d n g trffdng cho n I n k i n h te'.
Thie't l a p m d t t h i trffdng vdng ddy du, h o d n chinh Id m d t t r o n g nhffng b i e n p h d p n h a m gidm t h i l u sff cdt trff vdng k h d n g c a n thie't. Cho p h e p k i n h doanh vdng t r e n t d i k h o d n se l a m g i a m Iffgng v d n g v d t chd't ed't trff. Nhd nffdc edn n g h i e n cffu sdm b a n h d n h h d n h l a n g p h d p ly cho b o a t ddng k i n h doanh v d n g t r e n t d i k h o d n d Viet N a m , n h a m t a o t h u d n lgi cho qud t r i n h q u a n ly.
k i e m sodt t h i trffdng v a n g , ddng t h d i giup cho cae t d chffc, cd n h d n cd t h e p h d n g ngffa dffgc r u i ro t r o n g k i n h doanh vd huy d d n g vd'n h i e u qua ngudn vd'n b a n g v a n g t r o n g nffdc d l ddu tff cho s d n xud't k i n h doanh.
C h i n h phu n e n sdm cho p h e p t h a n h l a p
Congnghe n g d n H d n g
S6'67'Thang 10/2011
Tai ligu tham khao
1. Ngd Hudng (2006), Vai trd ciia vang td ngogi te trong nen kinh te nUdc ta hiin nay, Ky yeu hoi thdo khoa hoc
"Vai tro cda vdng vd ngogi tv tron^ dieu hdnh chinh sdch tiin ti". Nhd xud't bdn Vein hoa - Thong tin, Ha Ndi, trang 136-141.
2. Nguyin Hdu Tu (2006). Thuc trang thi trudng vdng vd cdc gidi phdp diiu hdnh d Viet Nam. Ky yeu hoi thdo khoa hoc "Vai trd cda vdng vd ngoai tc trong dieu hanh chinh sdch tiin ti", Nhd xud't ban Vdn hoa - Thong tin, Hd Ndi, trang 118-127.
3. An Huy (2011), Gid vdng lrong nu'dc cao hon the gidi 1,1 triiu ddng/luaug. http:/ /vneconomy.
vn / 20110912112737419P0C6/gi a lang-trong-nuoc cao- hon-the-gioi-11-trieu-dongluong h tm.
4. Phi Bdng Minh (2011), Biin phdp ndo de nhd nitdc si dung dugc s6' vdng dU trU trong ddn. http://www.vnba.
org.vn /index.php?option=com_content&task = view&id=9 911&Itemid=134.
5. Nggc Quyin (2011), 15 "kho vdng" du tra vdng ldn nhd't trin thi gidi, http://www.vietnaniplus.vnl Home / 15-kho-vang--du-tru-vang-lon-nhat-tren-the-
gioi / 20119 / 104945.vnplus.
6.http: // www.kitco.com / charts / popup / au0365nyb.htmll-
