p* cAc VAN oe QUOC T 6
T H I HUT DAU TU T R V C TIEP NUTdC NGOAI
\ AO C H A I PHI N H I NG NAM GAN B A \
Trdn mu Bdng' I OM T.\T
Dong FDI vdo chdu Phi irong thdp nien thu hai cua thi ky JiXI cd nhieu thay ddi. Mae ducoxu hudng gia tdng. nhung muc dg tdng FDI vdo luc dia Den vdn con khiem ton so v&i nhu cdu pnat trien kinh li - xd hgi cda cdc qudc gia chdu Phi Irong do tgp trung vdo mot so nu&c ldn nhu At Cgp. Morocco, Tunisia. Algeria, Kcynya. Ethiopia. Tanzania, Nam Phi. Mozambique. Zambia.
S igc ria. Ghana... Bdi viet tap tnmg phdn tich thuc trgng thu hitt FDI, ddc diem chit yeu cita dong vdn ndy vd lim hieu cdc nhdn td khien ddng von FDI vdo chdu Phi ldng gidm that thuang trong thai gian gdn ddy
Tu khod. thu hitt FDI. chdu Phi
Midn bdi- 25/9/2019: Phdn bien vd sira chUa: 21/10/2019: duyet dang: 5/11/2019 1. Tinh hinh thu hiit FDI hien nay o
chau Phi
Trong boi canh ty trpng dfing FDI toan cau o muc thap, dong chay ciia nguon vfin FDI den chau Phi cho thay su gia tang theo cip sfi nhan trong giai doan tii nSm nSm 1990 toi nhiing n5m gin da\ Trong khi dong FDI vao toan cau tSng gin 8.8 lin ki tir nam 1990 toi nay thi dong FDI \ ao chau Phi tang theo cip sfi nhan gan U lan; tir mirc trung binh hang nim la 4 355.4 uieu USD trong giai doan 1990-1994 len din miic 60 433,9 trieu USD trong giai doan 2015-2016.
N.'ini 2017, chau Phi da nhan dupc 42 tv USD' tir dong vfin FDI, chiim 6% dfing vfin FDI vao cac nen kinh te dang phat triin (tfing
cpng 671 ty USD va 47% tfing vfin dau tu nuoc ngoai)^. Nam 2018 dong FDI vao mfit sfi nen kinh ti 1cm cua chau Phi nhu Nigeria, Ai Cap va Ethiopia sut giam, song nguon vfin vao cac nen kinh te khac lai co muc tang dang ke. Dang chu y la Nam Phi, nin kinh t i Ion thli ba chau luc, vol FDI tang gip hon hai lin, til 2 ty USD nam 2017 len 5,3 ty USD n5m 2018, chu yeu vao cac ITnh vuc khai khoang, lpc dau, chi biin thuc pham va cong nghe thfing tin. Trong nam 2018, dfing von diu tu true tiep nuoc ngoai (FDI) vao chau Phi tjng 11% dat 6 muc 46 ty USD, sau khi siit gijn, lien tiip trong nSm 2016 va 2017'. Nguygj, nhan la do nhu cau ngay cang tang dfii vfii sfi mat hang tieu diing; tSng truang cua dau tu mpt nhSm khai thac tai nguyen a mpt sfi nin kinh
* Th^c si. \'ien Ngliien cuu Chau Phi v^ Trung Dong
Tgp chi nghien ciru cnkh PHI ATRIX. DONG SO 11(171) thang i
"2019
Thu hilt dau tu nutik: ngoai... Tran Hiiu Oong
ti da keo theo ngufin vfin FDI tang theo vao do Luc dia chau Phi (AfCFTA) da ho tra cac chau luc nay. Mpt sfi yeu tfi khac la viec hien dfing chay \ fin diu tu nuoc ngoai bfi sung vao thyc hfia Hiep djnh Khu vuc Thuong mai tu chau Phi trong thfii gian gin da\.
Hinh 1: FDI vao chau Phi trong giai doan 2012-2018 OoDg VSD FDI vio chiu Phi; 20U-201S
(tr USD ra % so rdi Thi pin)
Doig r i i FDI ra chai Phi; 2012-201S (ty CSD ra */• so rdi The pH!)
ItUSD® ® ® ® @ @ ® I J C S D ® ® ® ® ® ® ®
S . • •
Mm
21112 2011 2 0 1 * 2(11S 2 i n ( 2017 2018IIIIII I
2012 2013 2014 201S 2016 2017 2011• BicPhi agoig Phil lay Phi • Nam FM •TrogPhi OTyl;%sov«iTG Nguon: UNCTAD (2019). WIR 2019.
Phan theo cac khu vuc dja ly thu hut FDI 6 chau Phi, Bac Phi la khu vuc tap trung nhieu nhat dong vfin FDI dau tu vao khu vuc nay trong giai doan 2012-2018. Vfin FDI trong nSm 2018 phan theo khu vue lii nhu sau: 1) FDI vao Bac Phi tSng 7%, dat fi mirc 14 ty USD. 2) FDI din khu vuc Nam Phi da tang 13% len 6 muc vao khoang 32 ty USD; 3) FDI vao Dfing Phi khong cfi nhieu thay dfii vin duy tri o mirc 9 ty USD. 4) FDI vao Tay Phi giam 15% xufing con 9,6 ty USD (miic thap nhit ki tir nSm 2006; 5) FDI vao Trung Phi van o mirc tuong dfii vao khoang 8,8 ty USD.
Theo nganh thu hut diu tu, FDI diu tu vao chau Phi trong thai gian gin day chu yiu tm tien dau tu lan lupt theo cac nganh nhu dich vu; cfing nghipp; tai chi xuit;...Trong do nganh dich vu la nganh chiim ty trpng lan
nhat (tren 40%) trong tfing sfi ngufin vfin FDI dau tu vao chau Phi, chii yeu tap trung vao nganh dich vu, bao gfim cac nganh nhu ban le, dich \ u tai chinh, vien thfing, truyen thong va cfing nghe, djch vu kinh doanh va giai tri....
Khi chau Phi cfi phan lac hau ve cfing nghp, thi hp cfi su tap trung manh me vao viec xay dung nang luc cfing nghe, day se la yeu to thuc day su phat trien cua chau luc nay.
Nganh cong nghiep (chiem ty trpng tren 30% FDI) cung la mfit khu vuc ma ngufin vfin FDI tap trung nhieu tiep theo 6 chau Phi trong giai doan gan day. Trong dfi, nganh khai thac tai nguyen thien nhien chiem ty trpng Ion trong ngufin vfin FDI va tap trung vao ITnh vuc cfing nghipp a chau Phi trong giai doan gan day.
Tgp chi nghien ctiu CHAt PHI & TRI NG DONG S6 11(171) thang 11/2019 •
Tran HOu Dong Thu hut dau tu n u t j c n g o ^
Bang 1: Ty t r p n g FDI vao cac nganh djch vu d c h a u Phi giai doan 2014-2018 ("/•)
^ Djch Thong tin,
truyen (hong, cong nghe
Dich vu kinh doanh i
4 J _ 9.0
3,9
Phan theo doi tac dau lu. trong giai doan 10 nam trd lai da>. d3 co nhimg nha dau \ a khu vyc tren the gidi chu >• dau tu \ ao cac nen kinh le dang phat irien d chau lyc nay: tu\
nhien N)\ va Phap van 1^ nha dau tu von FDI Idn nhat vao chau Phi. tiep iheo la cac nen kinh te phat iricn khac nhu Ha Lan. Anh.
Trung Qudc. An Dg. \ i i n i Phi. Singapore.
Italy... Trong hai nim 2017-2018. Phap da trd thanh nha dau lu Idn nhat vao chau Phi. Trong klii Ha Lan la quoc gia dang nim giiJ co phieu dau tu nudc ngoai Idn thu hai d chau Phi. hon hai phan ba trong so dd chi tap irung d ba quoc gia la Ai Cap. Nigeria va Nam Phi.
Ngoai ra, irong sd cac nha dau tu co phan tu nhan Idn nhat duoc ghi nhan trong giai doan na\ la Tap doan Abraaj (I'.M-). Acus (Vuong
qufic Anh), Dfii tac d i u tu Helios (Vuong quoc Anh), Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.
(Hoa Ky), Tap doan Carlyle (Hoa K) Ky), ™ 8 Miles (Hoa Ky).
2. C i c nu-6-c t i i p nhan FDI Ion n h a t chau Phi thoi gian gan day
Dfing vfin FDI d i u tu vao chau Phi tap trung vao cae n i n kinh ti co tiem nang va chinh sach thu hut vfin lit. BJc Phi la khu vuc chiem sfi von FDI nhiiu nhit cua ca chau luc.
Cac qufic gia thu hiit nhiiu vfin FDI tai BSc Phi cfi Ai Cap, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria; 6 Dong Phi cfi Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania; of Nam Phi cfi Nam Phi, Mozambique, Zambia;
o Tay Phi cfi Nigeria, Ghana.
Cong nhan lam vi?c trong nha may d?t may a Ethii '^'giidn /1///75-.','H^^^^• nhandan.com.vn/
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAD PHI & T R I N G DONG SO 11(171) t h a n g n / j ^ j ^
TTiu hut dau tU node ngoai... Tran Hijtu Dong
Trong nam 2018 Ai Cap Ia nudc nhan von FDI idn nhat d chau Phi, mSc du ddng vdn giam 8% xu6ng con 6,8 ty USD. ti^p theo la Nam Phi va Morocco. Ddu tu nudc ngoai vao Ai Cap chu yeu tap trung vao nganh dau khi'' vdi phat hien quan trong ve tru lugng khi d6t ngoai khoi da thu hut d4u tu tir MNEs-\ Dong von FDI d^n Morocco da tang them 36% len d muc 3,6 ty USD; qudc gia nay tiep luc dugc hudng lgi tir hieu qua kinh te tucmg doi on dinh, nen kinh te da dang, dang thu hut dau tu nudc ngoai vao cac nganh nhu tai chinh, nang lugng tai tao, ca sd ha tang va nganh cong nghiep d to. Tai Tunisia, ddng Bang 2: 15 nirdc tiep nhan FDI
von FDI tang them 18%, len I ly I'SD. D§u tu nhieu nhat thuoc ve ITnh vuc cong nghiep (375 trieu USD), tilp theo la n ^ g lugng (300 trieu USD) va dich vu (200 trieu USD).
Phap la nudc dau lu ldn nhat d Tunisia nam 2018, tiep theo la Qatar. Do s\c bk 6n ve chinh tri. tinh trang thieu ngoai hdi va cac kenh ngan hang dit dd lam cho v6n FDI d^u tu vao nudc nay, bat chap vice M\ dd bd l?nh trimg phat. Ddng von FDI chay vao Algeria lang them 22% len muc 1,5 ty USD tap trung vao ITnh vuc dau khi va cac khoan d4u tu dang ke vao nganh 6 to.
Idn nhat d chau Phi nam 2018 Quoc gla
Ai Cgp Nam Phi Morocco
Nigeria Kenya Ethiopia
Ghana Algeria Cote d'lvoire
Zimbabwe Tunisia Uganda Tanzania Mozambique
Zambia
Tao vi^c lam (nghin ngiroi) 32
12 IS 10 6 16 7 10 4 6 10 6 3 1 2
Von dang ky (ty USD) 12
5 5 8 2 7 1 9 2 6 1 0 1 2 1
Dir iin (so dir^n) 91
no
71 65 64 29 30 18 30 18 19 17 19 15 15 Ngudn: FDI Intelligence. EY analysis
3. Oanh gia chung
* Thdnh cong trong thu hiit von FDI Chau Phi van la diem sang trong viec thu hilt dau tu FDI trong nhiing nam qua mSc dii
\u hucmg nay co giam di fi mgt sfi khu vuc khac tren the gioi. Theo dfi, ty trpng sfi vfin va cac du an FDI diu tu vao chau Phi co xu huong tang len trong giai doan tir nSm 2008
tro lai day. Nguyen nhan duoc cho la Hiep dinh Khu vuc thuemg mai tu do luc dja chau Phi (AfCFTA) da dang dugc thuc hien nen tac dfing tich cue den dong von FDI.
Dfing vfin FDI diu tu vao chau Phi da tan dung va tap trung chii yeu vao cae nganh la lgi thi ciia ciia cac nen kinh te dang phat trien o chau Phi nhu linh vuc san xuat va dich vif, khai thac tai nguyen thien nhien. Ngoai ra, hgi Tgp chi nghien ctru CHAt PHI & TRI NG DONG so 11(171) thang 11/2019 -43
Tran Hihj Dong Thu hut dau tu- nuidtngoal^
nhap khu \\ic vao th^ gidi da khuyen khich dau tu nudc ngoai gia tang vao hang hoa dja phucmg va iai nguyen thien nhien, ddng thdi kich thich tilng diu tu ngi khoi chau Phi khi cAc n^n kinh te ldn cua chau luc khai thac dugc cac Igi the.
Ddng vdn FDI dau tu vao chau Phi co xu hudng tang manh tir nam 2008 d^n nam 2018; dac biet trong luong lai \u hudng nay cdn tang Ien nhieu hon nOa. Do dd. ngudn von FDI gia tang d chau Phi sc phan nao dong \ ai trd cai each thuang mai va dau tu.
kcl hgp vdi tich lu> tai san va cac >cu td tich cvrc ben ngo^i khu vuc chau lyc se lao moi trudng ihuan tien cho chau Phi trong \iec ih^rc hi?n thu hut FDI \a cho sy phat Irien kinh tc cua hp.
Cac quoc gia chau Phi da co cac chinh sach va s\r Ihay doi khung phap ly nham cd lgi cho cac chien luge phat trien hudng ngoai bao gom khuyen khich FDI; dieu nay triing hgp vdi sy cai thien tuong doi ve hieu qua kinh te d mpt so nudc chau Phi.
* Hgn che. ton tgi
Dong von dau tu nudc ngoai FDI vao chau Phi dang co xu hudng lang len Irong thdi gian gan day. tuy nhien t> le von FDI toan cki d chau luc nay rat nho. Ngay ca khi so sanh vdi cac khu vyc dang phat tri^n khac, chau Phi van il CO Igi the hon trong viec thu hut v6n dau tu nudc ngoai. \'i \a)'. cac qu6c gia chau Phi can phai ihuc hien cai each nhi^u hon nua.
\'on dau lu FDI vao chau Phi chii y^u tap trung vao tieu \ iing \a cac quoc gia didn hinh CO nen kinh tc phat trien hon so vdi cac qudc gia khac trong khu vi;c. Dieu na\ lam cho co sg chenh l?ch trong phat trien kinh d giua cac lieu khu vuc va cac quoc gia d chau Phi.
Mpt so qudc gia da co tiem luc phat tri^n
kinh te Igi dugc ddu tu vdn nhieu hon. tront khi cac qudc gia khac dang can \dn th' '9'.' dugc dku tu, do dd linh trang ihieu \nn ^ tiep tuc dien ra.
\'6n FDI chu >iu dugc dau tu vao linh vi^c khai thac tai ngu> en thien nhien. djch vu ' dimg (khu \ irc so cdp): do dd Igi ich cho khu
\ uc nay tang khdng dang k% nhu d Dong ' noi vdn chu yC'U dugc dAu tu vao khu \ irc ^ cap (san xudt). FDI iu%' da tao ra mpt so moi lien k6t tai cac nln kinh li chau Phi nhimg chua tao ra si^ chuyen giao cdng nghe thong tin nhu mong dgi.
Ddng von FDI diu lu d chau Phi chu yeu la do cac nguon vdn tir nha dau tu d ngoai chau lyc chay vao. Cdn ddng von FDI noi khoi giOa c^c qudc gia, khu vuc d chau Phi van chiem ty trpng, sd lugng von, du an han che va chu yeu tap trung d mpt so quoc gia phat trien nhat chau luc.
Mat trai va cac he luy ma dong von FDI mang lai cho cac qudc gia tiep nhan ngudn von d chau Phi la rat ldn. Trong do, v4n de ve moi trudng, pha huy tai nguyen thien nhien, canh quan ddi song vAn tiSp tuc xay ra tai cac quoc gia tiep nhan dau tu FDI d chau Phi hi?n nay. Cac van de le thuoc vao nguon v6n FDI di kem vdi cac dieu khoan cho vay gay anh hudng tdi ddi sdng chinh tri, kinh te ciia ngudi dan d cac nudc tiep nhan dau tu. Djgn hinh la sy xuSt hien "chu nghTa thuc dan kidu mdi" dang dugc cac nudc ldn cd nen kinh t6 phat trian triSn khai d chau Phi trong giai doan hien nay.
*Nguyen nhdn
Trong thdi gian qua, tinh hinh kinh t^ jj^- gidi cdn phuc hdi kha cham, muc tang tr^^
va cac ngudn vdn cdn d mirc thap. c^ ° di diu tu cdn phy thugc vao tiem nang, Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG OONG SO 11(171) thang Wiy^..
Thu hilt dau ttf nuHfc ngoai- Tran Hijtu Dong ngudn v6n cua hp. Hien nay, tinh hinh the
gidi day biln dpng, rui ro lam cho tinh than trpng trong diu tu cua cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai cao hon, dong thdi, kinh te cd miic hdi phuc y6u Ihi canh tranh giua cac nudc trong thu hiit cac ddng von lai cao hon.
Canh tranh giira cac nudc ldn cdn dien ra kha gay git va quyet liet d cac khu vuc tren the gidi. Trong do, chau Phi la luc dia cd nhieu tiem nang cho cac nudc phat trien ap dyng, thir nghiem nhieu khoa hoc ky thuat va la thi trudng de cac nudc ldn gay anh hudng.
Nen kinh te cua cac nudc chau Phi cdn kem phat trien, phy thudc nhieu vao nguon tai nguyen thien nhien. The che va khung phap ly d cdc quoc gia chau Phi con chua hoan thien se la mpt trd ngai cho cac quoc gia dau tu FDI vao chau lyc nay. Nen kinh te kem phat trien vdi trinh dp khoa hpc ky thual chua dap img du nhu cau va trinh dp ciia cac nudc dau tu la mpt bit cap d cac qudc gia d chau Phi. Trinh dp quan Iy va nSng luc ctia ngudi lao dpng d cac qudc gia chau Phi con kem ciing se han che ddng vdn FDI dau tu vao.
Chau Phi hien dang la khu vuc co toe dp do thi hoa nhanh nhat the gidi. vdi dong ngudi djch chuyen vao cac do thi vugt trpi hem ca Trung Quoc va An Dp. Su chuyen doi nay la mpi thach thuc, dong thdi cung mang lai Ipi
Chu thich:
' Trong so 42 ty USD vdn diu tu FDI vao chau Phi thi 5 nen kinh te tiep nhan nguon von hang dau lan lirgt la Ai Cap (7,4 ty USD), Ethiopia (3,6 ty USD), Nigeria (3,5 tj" USD), Ghana {3,3 ty USD) va Morocco (My) 2,7 ty USD).
^ Theo s6 !i?u ciia UNCTAD, thi v6n FDI ciia chau Phi so vdi nen kinh te dang phat trien khac thi FDI cr chau A nhan dirgrc 71 % long s6 v6n; My Latinh va Caribbean nhan dugc 23% Irong tong so von.
•' UNCTAD (2019). World Investment Report 2019.
* Ai C^p da trd thanh nha xuat khau khi dot rong vao thang 1 nam 2019.
' T^p doan Dau khi Anh da sap nhap va mua lai (M & A) dau tu vao nudc nay trong hai nam qua, dua CO phieu dau tir ciia cac cong ty vao nudc nay dat hem 30 t\' do la. Ai Cap da ky it nhat 12 thoa thuan tham
ich to Idn cho nhirng nudc dam diu tu hang ti USD vao \a\ dung ca sd ha ting nai day.
Nen chinh tri va an ninh xa hpi d cac qudc gia chau Phi tucmg d6i bit dn. Thuc t^ cho thay rang khi nen chinh In, the chl chinh trj d cac nudc tilp nhan dau tu bit dn se lam mit long tin d cac nudc di dau tu. Do vay, ngudn von FDI se phu thudc vao tinh hinh chinh tri.
an ninh ciia cac quoc gia d chau Phi. Trong thdi gian tdi, cac nudc chau Phi can giai quylt tot tinh hinh chinh trj, an ninh d moi qudc gia cung nhu trong toan khu vuc de Ihiic day thu hut ngudn vdn FDI vao chau lyc nay.
He thdng co sd ha tang giao thdng, ky thuat d cac qudc gia chau Phi c6n kem, chua dap ung vdi nhu cau dau tu tir cac nudc ben ngoai lan ben trong chau lyc. Cac quoc gia d chau Phi chua phat trien ddng bp va ip dyng khoa hpc ky thual vao cac he thong thong tin lien tac, mang ludi giao thong, nang lugng, h?
thong cap thoat nudc, cac co sd dich vu tai chinh ngan hang... nham tao dieu kien cho cac du an FDI phat trien thuan Ipi. Trong do, ihieu hut CO sd ha tang la nut nghen ldn nhat trong tien trinh phat trien cua chau Phi. Theo udc tinh, cac nudc ciia chau lyc nay can 130-170 ti USD/nam de dap ung nhu cau phat trien ha tang, tuy nhien chau Phi dang thieu hyt khoang 68-108 ti USD.
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRI NG DONG S6 11(171) thang 11/2019 -45
Tran Hihi 05ng Thu hut dau tu nudc ngg!::
do \ a san xuil \ cn cac cong t> dau khi quoc te voi dtr an Ion ciia nuoc ngoai ciing diriTC cong bo *^"^^j ITnh \ irc kliac. ching h?n nhu d(r an ni gia 2 t> do la cua \ il>ulon (Ukraine) va dv an Iri gia 1 l>, ' ' ' ' ' • ' ' ||„
Integration Holding (A Rap Saudi) Ncoai ra. Tjp doan Cong nghf Shandong Ruyi (Trung Quoc) Ja >
.u..A_ .tk otn ._.;.. T t-r^ j : . ; . j x. l.u.. JA. „,„,, . » , „ . . n s . , l-tiii l-inli IP l^entl tt.lO SuCZ l-"
.\rtal"' Ihoa SEZ)
;„ 201 f' linh
Intcb a...-,. , -„ .^r s, c •
Ihujn diiu lir 830 tri?u L SD dc xa> dtmg mpt khu vgc del may trong DJc lihu kinh le kenh d.io Suez I ai lieu tham khao
1 L'N (2017), "Foreign Dtrecl Inveslmeni To .Africa Fell By A MoJcraic Three Per Cent dang tren hltp //unclad,org/en pages'PressRe!ease.asp\?OrigmalVersion!D=408
2 \iisviiis Xiiiis^KtinaTi tian).-Foreign Direct Inveslmetil and Growth in Siib-Saharan P tlhai are the Channels?" dSng iren Isp chi cUa Imong University of Kansas Ihang 10 nam 2013
3. EU (2016), ".Africa's economic growth Taking offer slowing down?" cua European Parliamen Research Service cong bo vao Ihang I nam 2016
•t Rama Vadra (2016), "FDI in Africa by India and China: Partners or Rivals''" dang tren Business. Economics, Finance and Social Sciences thang 4 nfim 2016
5. AfDB (2016), "Annual Report 2016", Africa 2016.
6. Adrienne Klasa (2016), "The Africa inveslmeni report 2016: Intelligent data lead to smar decisions" dang Iren t?p chi the Financial Times nfim 2016.
7. J. Peter Pham i20n),"Africas Economic Prospects in 2017: Ten Countries to ra/c/i" dfing tren tpp chi htlp:"\\\vw.atlanliccouncil org/blogs/afi'icasource/africa-s-economic-prospects-m-2Ul /- e - countries-lo-ualch nga> 9 thang 1 nam 2017.
8. Nkululeko Khumalo. -llou to leverage FDI for service sector development in African countries?
dang tren htlps://www,ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges-africa/news/how-to-leverage-fdi-for-service-sector- devclopmenl-in-african ngay 21 thang 6 nfim 2016.
9. UNCTAD (2019), World Investment Report 2019.
10. UNCTAD (2018), World Investment Report 2018.
11. EY Anractiveness Program Africa (2019), How can bold action become everyday action?, UK.
12 http;//unctad.org/wir or httpL//unctad.org/fdistatistics..
13. http://unctad,org/wir.
Tgp chl nghien ctru CHAU PHI 4 TRi >f; Do^c• so 11(171) thang U/JQJ^
