NGHIEN CUU
Cac yeu to anh huong den nhu cau du lich ciia du khach:
truong hop nghien cihi tai thanh pho Ho Chi Minh
NgO Gao Hoai Linh, L6 Ghi C Nguyen Thi Be Hai, Nguydn Tign Dat TnroTig Dal hoc Cdng Nghiop TI= H6 Ghi Minh
7dm tdt: Nghien cuu na\ duoc thuc hien nhdm phan tich eac ydu td anh hudng den nhu cau du lich cua du khach Tmdng hop nghien cuu tai thanh phd Hd Chi Minh (TP HCM). Bang each ket hop giua phuang phap nghien cuu dmh tinh va dinh Iuong, lac gia da tien hanh khao sat 200 du kiiaeh dang di du lich lai TP. HCM Kel qua nghien cuu eho thav co 6 nhom nhan id anh hudng ddn nhu cau du lieh eua du khach: (I) Nhu cau lu the hien, (2) Su kham pha; (3) Lien ket ca nhan; (4) Lien kdl .xa hoi (5) Su (boat ly; (6) Su hung phan. Day chinh la CO sd quan trong dc co quan quan ly va cac doanh nghiep du lich tai TP. HCM xem xet lai eae chinh sach va dich vu ciia minh tu do cai thien va nang cao kha nang lhu hiil du khaeh, phat tnen du tieh TP. HCM.
Tukhou: Du lich, nhu cau du !ich: nhu cau du lich ciia du kiiaeh; du lich TP. HCM.
l.Mffffau
La mdt qudc gia co nhieu the manh ve dieu kien tu nhien \kn van hda, Viet .Nam co nhieu co hpi va tiem nang de phat tnen du lich tra thanh nganh kinh td miii nhon cua dat nude Nganh du lich tai Viet Nam co Idc dp tang tmdng rat nhanh. \a\ idc do tang trudng \d khach qudc li' vao khoang 9,5%/nam (lde do nhanh nhat so vdi eac nude trong khu vuc ASliAN). Tai Viol Nam, cac doanh nghiep du lich chu yeu lap trung phat Inen d eac thanh phd !dn, trong do phai ke den la TP HCM, day la Ihanh phd duoc to chuc Du lich Thd gidi (IINWTO) danh gia cao vc tiem nang va lai nguyen du licli. Voi nhirng tiem lire hien co, Luc Iuang dan eu dong dao, su phat then virot bac vc c[>ng nghe, truyen thong, giao due, k\ thuat, . Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh dang dan khfing dinh vai tro la tm tot eiia nen kinh te qudc gia. Ben canh dd, \di vi In dia l\ chiOn luoc Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh dang trd Ihanh viing dat hua cho cac doanh nghiep du lich trong boi canh hoi nhap loan cau ,
FJung Iruoc linh hmh tren, viec xem xel va cai Ihien cai chinh sach, dich ui de lhu hiitdu khaeh den Iham (juan du lich tai TP HCM la mot \vu \6 hdi sire t|uan trong liong (|ua trinh dua du lich tro thanh nganh kinh le tl.iii lan eiia Thanh phd De lam duac dieu do, viec U':n hanh iighicn cuu de hicu lo nhung \ou to lac ddng-leiniliu * an du lich eua du khach la mot \an de thiet yeu, hnni.n < hinli la man etiot dc cae nha quan tn thuc hiei, >.u Uiinii sach kich cau, dua nhung nguoi CO nhu tan ,],, i,, h iro ihanli kliadi hang muc lieu \aqu\el dmh th.,,, ip HI \] lam dieni di-n Cluiili M mill cap thiet do. tat yi,, „„ ilmi tiiOn dr tai • y\.n
\v\.[ to tac dong den nhu i.du ,iu hi h ciia dn kh.uh Iruong hop nghien tuu tai IP. !i u Bai virt se tap tiling iiqhieii cuu i ai \cu id anh i,. .. u* ,|cii nliu i an
92 . . „ . = _ . - . „ „ _ „ _ „ „ . . ,„,„
du hch cua du khaeh tai TP. HCM. Thdng qua viec van dung cac md hinh nghien ciru de khao sat, danh gia, lu dd tac gia de xuat mdt sd giai phap nhdm tac dong den nhu eau du hch, nang eao hinh anh eiia TP HCM Irong (jua trinh quyet dinh lua chon dia diem du lich eiia du khach.
2. M6 hinh va phirong phap nghien ciru Nhu cau du hch la su mong mudn eiia eon ngudi di den mdt nai khae vdi noi d Ihudng xuyen eua minh dd cb duoc nhung xiic cam mdi, trai nghiem mdi, hieu bidt m(n, de phat trien cae mdi t]uan he xa hoi, phuc hdi sue khoe, tao su thoai mai dd ehiu ve tinh than.
Thong qua vice tdng hop Iv thuyet va eae md hinh nghien ciiu duoc cdng bd tmdc do tac gia nhan thay md hinh nghien cuu ban dau ciia Tasci va Ko (2015) phii hop vdi dieu kien thuc tidn ciia de lai nghien eiiu, nen lac gia da riuydt dinh ebon md hinh n.iy de lien hanh nghien euu, md hinh dua ra G nhdm ydu to tac dbngden nhu ciu du hch: (1) Nhu eau lu the hion. (2) Sir kham pha, (3) Lien kel ca nhan, (4) Lien ket xa hoi, (5) Su thoat ly, (6) Su hung phan.
('ilii Ihuvet nghien < iru
HI Tu thi' hien co anh huong inn \\i- 111 du lich ciiddu khach lai Ti' HCM {^)
H2: Su kham pha cb anh hudng tmc Udp den nhu eau du lich cua du khach tai TP.HCM (+)
H3. Lien kdl ea nhan cb anh hudng tme tidp den nhu eau du hch ciia du khach tai TP.HCM (+)
H4: Lien kdt xa hpi co anh hudng tmc tidp den nhu cau du hch ciia du khach tai TP.HCM (+)
H5: Su Ihoal ly cb anh hudng true tiep ddn nhu cau du Ijch ciia du khach lai TP HCM ( + )
H6: Su hung phan eo anh hudng tme tiep den nhu cau du lich eiia du khach lai TP.HCM (+)
Nghien eiiu nay dupe thuc hien thong qua 5 budc;
Budc L Can cu vao md hinh cita Tasci va Ko (2015) va eae mo hinh khac, tac gia da su dung phirong phap dinh tinh de tien hanh thao luan nhom, tham khao y kidn cita cac chuyen gia dau nganh, tu dd thong nhal mo hinh nghien cuu gom 6 ydu td
Budc 2: Dua vao 6 nhom yeu td anh hudng den nhu cau du iich cua du khach tai TP. HCM, tae gia da tien hanh thiet kd bang cau hdi va khao sat so bo dd loai nhung bidn khdng cb tac ddng (gdm 24 bien quan sat) va lien hanh khao sat so bd 30 du khach dang tham quan du lich tai TP HCM Ketqua khao sal duoc kiem dinh bang he sd Cronbach's Alpha.
Budc 3: Sau khi nghien ciiu so bo va phan tieh du lieu lhu thap duoc, tat ca cac bien quan sal ddu dupe chap nhan. Nhu vay, bo thang do cae ydu td anh huang den nhu cau du lich cua du khach gdm 6 nhom yeu to vdi 24 bidn quan sat duge su dung de nghien cuu chinh thue Ddi tuong phdng van la du khach dang tham quan du lich lai TP.Hd Chi Minh. Kich Ihudc mau dupe xae dinh la 200 Tae giai tidn hanh kiem dinh thang do, he sd Cronbach Alpha ciia 6 nhom yeu td vdi 24 bidn quan sat deu Idn O.li Vi the, lat ca cac thang do ddu duac chap nhan.
Budc 4: Khi hoan thanh viec khao sat va kiem dinh Ihang do chinh thuc, tac gia ddn hanh phan tich nhan to kham pha EFA (Exploratory Factor Analysis) de thu nho \a tom Uil cae dir lieu (Hoang Trpng — Chu Nguyen Mong Ngoc. 2005) Phuang phap nay dua vao ly sd rut trich nhan to (Eigenvalue), theo do chi nhung nhan td nao co ty' sd nit trich nhan td (Eigenvalue) Icm hon 1 se duoc giu lai, con nho hon 1 se khong e(') Uie dung torn lai thong lin tdt hon moi bien goc Phuong phap rut tiicli cac thanh phan chinh (Principal compo- nents) \a phuong phap .xoay nguyon got cac nhan id (\'arimiLx Procedure) duoc sir dung de ldi thidu hoa so luong bien eo he so Idn lai cung nipt nhan id, lang kha nang giai thich cac nhan Id
Buoe '> Can cu vao ket qua phan tich d bu(rc 1 tac gia lien hanh xac dinh lai mo hinh nghien cuu va dat ra c.K- gia thuvet nghien ciiii tho mo hinh Phuong phap phan tith hoi quv luven tinh boi duac su dung de kieni dinh cac gia thuvet cua mo hmh, tu do xem xcl niui dii tat dong < ua eac veu to nav den nhu can du h, h (.uadu khach laiTP HCM
3. Ket qua nghien cihi
3.1 Ket qua kidm dinh thang do
Ket qua kiem dinh cho thay eac thang do deu dat dp tin cay, he sd Cronbach's Alpha Idn hon 0,6. Cac he sd tuong quan bidn long ddu Idn hon 0,3, dat chuan cho phep. Do do, tat ca cac bien quan sal nay deu dupe dua vao phan tich nhan to kham pha liep theo.
Baug 1: Kiein djiili do tiii ra}
M;i (10 ;i TH KP CX XH XL HP KG
Tliiiiili |ili;iii Nliu cau tu tlie hien Sir kliam pha Lienkiet ca nhan Lien ket xa hoi Su thoat !v Sir himg phan Nhu cau du lich
He so C roiibufli's 0728 0.801 0.863 0.659 0.677 0.770 0,660
.\ipli.i
3.2 Phan tich nhan td kham pha (EFA) Kiem dmh Bartiett vdi mue y nghia la sig. = 0,000 (nho han 0,05); he .so KMO - 6,815. Ket qua nay cho thiiy rang eac bien quan sat Irong long thd cb mdi tutmg quan vdi nhau.
Kdl qua phan lich nhan id kham pha (EFA — Exploralor\' Factor Analysis) cho Ihay qua mot lan ehay 24 bien quan sat duoc dua vao phan tich v^n giir nguyen trong 6 nhom nhan td ban dau. Tong phuang sal tnch la 02,186% (Ion hon 50%), didu nay cb nghia eae nhan td tnch lai giai thieh duoc 62,186% cho mo hinh, con lai 37, 814% so duoc giai thieh bdi nhung nhan Id khac. Ty so nil inch nhan Id (Eigenvalue) ddu Idn hon I nen duoc giu lai.
Tu ket qua tren eho thay mo hinh phan lich nhan id EFA (Exploratory Factor Analysis) la phii hcjip vdi du lieu vdi 6 nhom nhan to va eo the su dung ke't qua nav (ho phan tieh hoi quy bbi
3.3 Phan tich hdi quy tuydn tinh bgi De do ludng mue do tac dong ciia cac nhom yeu td ddn nhu cau du hch eiia du khaeh tai TP, HCM, lac gia lien hanh phan tich hdi quy tuvon tinh bbi va kidm dmh eac gia tiiuyc'l ciia mo tnnh vai 6 nhdm vdu to la bidn doc lap de do ludng nhu cau du licti cua du khach tai TP HCM la bicn phu Ihuoc
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Ket qua pfiaii tieh hni f|uv tuvdn linh boi cho tli.iv R2 = 0,873 nghia la nio lunh lioi (|uv liiven tinh Iren < o do thieh iKjp den h7 3^, Hieu chmh R2 - 0,869 dioii nav (.o nghia la 8i. 4 •.. nhu eau du lith ( ua du khai h
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NGHIEN c d u tai TP. HCM dugc giai thich bang 6 nhdm bidn quan s^t dd cap ddn trong md hinh. 13,1% cdn iai dugc giai thich bdi cae bidn khae nam ngoai md hinh.
Kidm dinh F su dung trong phan tich phuong sai la mdt phep kidm dinh gia thuydt vd do phu hgp ciia md hinh hdi quy tuydn tinh tdng thd dd xem xet bidn phy thudc cd lidn hd tuydn tinh vdi toan bd tap hgp cua eae bidn dpc lap- Qua kdt qua phan tich, ta thdy r^ng F= 187,538 va cac gia tri sig. = 0,000 (nhd hon 0,05)
khach du lich khac nhau nhu: Dudng sach, dudng hoa, Phd im thuc. Id hdi am thuc qudc td...
Vd lien kdt xa hdi: Td chuc cac ngay Id hdi giao luu van hda, nghd thuat tao co hdi cho du khach gap gd nhidu ngudi mdi, md rdng mdi quan he xa hdi. Nang cao vai trd va md rdng hoat ddng cua cac trung tam ho trg khach du lich. Xay dung md hinh toan Thanh phd pliuc vu eho du lich, de du khach di ddn b^t ky noi nao trong TP. HCM cung la dia didm du Ijch, dugc ddi ehp thdy md hinh hdi quy xay dung la phu hgp vdi du xu an can, dugc phuc vu ehu dao.
li^u thu thap duge va eac bidn dieu cd y nghia vd mat yd su hung phdn: Td chuc cac su kien mang tinh thdng ke vdi mdc y nghia la 5%. Cac bidn dua vao md thudng nidn nham thu hiit su chii y, kich thich du hinh cd mdi quan he tuydn tinh vdi bidn phu thudc, khaeh nhu: Id hdi du lich, le hdi da van hda,... Xay ehinh vi vay cac gia thuydt HI, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6 deu jijng ^ac tmng tim vui choi giai tri dang cap qudc td.
dugc chap nhan. Md hinh hdi quy tuydn Unh cae nhan B^U J^^ ph^t tridn eo sd ha tang vd giao thdng, canh quan dd thi.
td nhu sau:
Y = 0,353*X2 + 0,320*X3 + 0,228*X4 + 0,213*X5 + 0,213*X6 + 0,172*X1
(Trong dd: Y: Nhu cau du lieh; XI : Nhu cdu tu thd hien; X2 : Su kham pha; X3 : Lign kdt ca nhan; X4 : Lien kdt xa hdi; X5 : Su thoat ly; X4 : Su hung phdn)
4. Ket luan va 0e xuat
Kdt qua nghien cuu cho thay 6 yeu td trong md hinh nghien ciai deu anh hudng va tuong quan thuan ddn long tmng nhu eau du lich cua du khach tai TP.
HCM. Trong dd, 3 ydu td dan dau anh hudng manh nhat ddn nhu cau du lich eua du khaeh tai TP. HCM la:
Thu nhat: Su kham pha; Thu 2: Lien kdt ca nhan; Thu 3: Lien ket xa hdi. Cae ydu to cdn lai deu anh hudng den nhu eau du lieh cua du khaeh tai TP. HCM voi nhtrng muc do khae nhau. Do vay, ham y nghien cuu can tap tmng vao su kham pha, lien kdt ca nhan va lien ket xa hdi dd thue hien cae chinh sach kich eau du Ijeh, thu hut du khaeh. Tren co sd kdt qua nghien euu, tac gia dua ra mdt sd giai phap sau.
Vd su kham pha: Du lieh TP. HCM phai khong ngdng ddi mdi dd ludn la diem ddn hdp ddn ma du khach mudn dupe kham pha. Viee quang ba nhung loai hinh nghe thuat dan gicin, lang nghe tmydn thdng giiip du khaeh mudn duoc tim hidu nhCmg net dac trung vd van hoa eiia Thanh phd. Cac dich vii du lich phai phuc vu xuyen sudt, thue hien mue tieu xay dung TP. HCM trd thanh "Thanh phd khdng ngii" dd du khaeh cd the trai nghiem bat ky luc nao ho mudn. Thu hiit du khaeh bang each td ehue eae su kien qude gia va qudc td...
Vd lien kdt ea nhan: Td chuc cac tour du lich danh cho du khach di theo nhdm, theo gia dinh. To ehue cac hoat dpng cd quy mo Idn trong eac dip Id hdi nhu:
Qude td phuc nu, Id tinh nhan, Ngay phu nir Viet Nam,... eae hoat ddng nay phai hudng vd du khach, cho du khach tme tiep tham gia, trai nghiem. Phat tridn nhidu hon nua nhung dia didm, nhung chuong trinh hudng vd sd thich va tinh each eua eac nhdm
Vd su thoat ly: Cdn tao eho du khach su thoai mai tdi da khi di du Ijch. Giam bdt su rac rdi, vudn ban vd thu tuc va giay td can thidt khi di du lich. Tang eudng edng tac dam bao an toan, an ninh cho du khaeh dd du khach khdng gap cac vdn de xau phat sinh trong chuyen di. Phat tridn eae loai hinh du Ijeh sinh thai, du lieh tam linh dd du khaeh cd duge nhung giay phut thu gian, thoai mai.
Vd nhu cdu tu thd hien: Du khach phai dirge tdn trgng, dugc phue vu tdt nhat, dugc the hien nhung tiem nang eiia ban than. Be thuc bien dugc didu do viee nang cao chat luong dieh vu du hch va cae dieh vu khac cd lien quan la didu hdt sue quan trpng. Cac khach san, nha hang cao cap tai TP. HCM nen ap dung cac ehucmg trinh uu dai, giam gia dd du khach ed thd tidp can vdi cae dieh vu dang cap. Ngoai cac tour du lich sSn cb can td chue tour du Ijch dua vao nhu cau va y mudn eua du khaeh, dd hp ed thd the hien tdi da y mudn va nhu cdu eiia ban than.
Tai lieu tham khao
Haiyan Song & ctg, 2010, "Tourism demand model- ling and forescasting: How should demand be meas- ured?", Tourism Economics.
Jurowski & ctg, 1996, "The effects of instmmental and expressive factors on overall satisfaction in a park environment", Joumal of Environmental System.
Krippendorf J, 1987, "The Holiday Makers:
Understanding the Impact of Leisure and Travel", Oxford. Heinemann Professional.
Pearee PL and Lee UI, 2005, "Developing the travel career approach to tourist motivation", Joumal of Travel Research.
Tasci and Ko, 2015, "Travel needs revisited", Joumal of Vacation Marketing.
