CHlNH TR!-AN NINH TH^Gldl M m
Cai each cac to chu'c quoc te sau khung hoang
TS. NGUYEN THANH DVC
I oi .sire mgnh "cirng" vd •mC'iu" viroi troi. cdc nuirc lirn hum chu dong ddi ra ccic ijuy Idc vd ludt chcri mdi cho nl'n kinh tO vd chinh iri lodn can. Thong qua thay diii cdn cdn .sire manh. ccic nmrc km co cent lgi quyin luc cua quan he qude Ic (QHQT), xdc dinh (rdi lu kinh li quoc lO (KIXJT) miri do ai thdng trj. Tir trdi lu KTOT di). cdc nuoc lan dinh ru ccic ludt choi cua minh. ddng ihdi ho cdng ihcinh lap nen cdc the che quoc li cua minh. iheo chiin lucre cua minh di thuc. hien nhittig ludi chert dd. Cc) rdt nhiiu dgng ihi chi qude ti: todn cdu, khu vuc, diet phuang..., cr ddy chtrng loi di cap din nhung thi chi todn cdu chu yiu nhu
WTO, IMF WB.
I. Cai to cac the che quoc te - yeu cau cap bach Du da CO tac dong tich cue dkn sir phat trien kinh te thd giai sau Chi^n tranh th^ giai Thu hai, cac thS kinh t^ chd toan cau (GATT/WTO, IMF/WB... ) dang dung truac doi hoi cip bach phai dieu chinh.
Nhieu ndm nay, cdc Id chirc quoc te chu chot - WTCX IMF vd WB dang tra nen yiu di. WTO da hi gat sang mpt ben khi cac dam phan da phuang sup do, bi chi trich vi khong chii trong den cac tieu chuan lao dong hoac tac dong din moi truang ctia thuang mai; them vao do la khong quyet tam trong viec da bo cac rao can thuang mai...
Trong khi do, IMF va WB dugc thanh lap nam 1944 nhu mot phan ciia to chuc Lien hop
* Ven Kinh tl va Chinh tri Thg gioi
quoc de dieu hanh he thong tiln te qu6c \k \a dieu phoi nguon vien trg cho cac nuoc ngheo, dang bi chi trich vi khong dua ra dugc mot vai tro lan han cho cac nuac co n8n kinh te thj truong dang n6i len nhu Trung Qu6c. An Do.
Cac cai each tir g6c din ngpn IMF va WB da dugc 20 bp truang tai chinh cac nuac giau nhk the giai dl xuSt, vi no thilu "tinh chinh dang \a hieu lire" Bi bo qua boi cac thi truang \t)n toan cku va do ap dat cac diiu kien nhay cam ddi \ ai cac nuac ngheo, IMF dang tim kilm \ai tro mai. Con WB thi dang lo bj mat vai tro la nha tai trg chinh. Cac the chi qu6c tl phuang tien Xii- ly thi giai toan cSu hoa dang lam vao hoan canh kho khan.
Bli canh kinh tl va chinh tri thi giai da va dang thay d6i bupc cac t6 chirc qu6c tl (TCQT) phai CO nhung thay d6i nhat dinh.
NhOng vSn dS KINH T^ VA CHINH TR.I TH^ GIQI S6 2(190) 2012-
Cai each cac to chifc qu6c t§ sau khung hoang Nguyin Thanh DCec L l . Tu-cng quan luc luong tren the gi6i
thay doi
Tu dau nhirng nam 1990 den cudi thi ky XX, the giai a trong trang thai dan cue. My va cac dong minh ciia My hau nhu chi phoi cac van de kinh te, chinh tri quoc ll. Tuy nhien, tu dau the ky XXI, khoanh khfic dan cue da cham dirt, nhirang cho cho xu hiriVng da cyc dang dSn noi troi va chiem uu thi. Cung tu d4u thi ky .\X1, cac dien viCMi chinh tren ban ca kinh le va chinh tri dang thay d6i, do la My Nhat Ban
I U Trung Quoc nhom BRIC. trong do siic manh quyen luc dang chuyen dan tu nhom cac nuac phat tricn sang nhom nuac BRIC va dang phat trien. 1 rong nh6m BRIC, vai tro ciia Trung Quoc ngay cang noi bat.
Sire tngnh cua My dang suy yeu tucrng doi.
Thomas Fingar, nha phan tich tinh bao hang dau cua My, canh bao mac du Washington se van la mpt sieu cuang vao nam 2025, nhung sir chi phoi bi suy giam nhieu. Han nOa, cuang vj lanh dao ciia Washington se "suy giam vai toe dp nhanh trong cac ITnh vuc chinh tri, kinh tl va co the ca van hoa"
Tuy nhien, den nam 2020, My van con nhilu lgi the, dong vai tro try cot trong mpt loat vdn de: khoa hpe cong nghe, chinh tri, quan sy... ma cac nuac khac kho co thi thay thi. Truac hit.
My CO uu the vugt troi ve khoa hpe cong nghe. Theo "Bao cao sue eanh tranh toan cSu 2008 2009" do Dien dan Kinh tl Thi giai cong bo, My mac du bi tac dpng ciia khiing hoang tai chinh, nhimg do co lgi thi vl ca c§u kinh te va nang lyc doi mai khoa hpe va cong nghe (KH&CN), nen van dung dhu he thing kinh te co sue canh tranh toan cku. My luon di dau trong phat trien eong nghe mai. Sau khiing hoang, My dang di dau trong phat triln "cong nghe xanh", do c6 the la dpng lyc chii ylu giup My vugt qua khung hoang va giup My tilp tuc but pha so vai cac nuac khac trong phat triln
kinh tc thap ky tai. Khoan chi cho hoat dpng nghien cuu va phat trien (R&D) ciia My chiem lai gan 40% tdng chi R&D loan cau va My cung chiC'in han 50% sd bSng sang che phat minh Iren the giai...
Sire mgnh cuct Trung Quoc dang len. Sy phat trien cua Trung Qude se la sy kien ndi bat nhat Irong mdi trudng qude tc ke tir dau the ky XXI, dac biet sau khiing hoang tai chinh loan cau 2008. Trong 10 nSm dku Ihl ky XXi, Trung Qude da thirc sy troi day. Trung Quoc da trd thanh hien tugng thu hiit sy quan tam ciia the gioi ve ca sue manh cung va sue manh mem. Nhat la, sau khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau 2008, Trung Qude khdng nhung d3 vugt qua khiing hoang mdt each thanh cdng. ma con tan dung tdt ca hdi khiing hoang de vuan len manh me.
Mdt nghien ciru mai da\ ciia Hiep hdi Hoang gia Anh danh gia, Trung Qude dang chuan bi cho mdt sy "bung nd" quan trpng ve KH&CN tren quy md toan cau. Trung Qude, sau khi vugt Anh de trd thanh nuac cd nhieu nghien cuu thu hai the giai, cd the qua mat My chi trong mdt sd nam niJa. Dieu nay dugc coi la sdm hon so vdi cac dy doan truoc dd ve tdc do phat trien ciia khoa hpe Trung Qude.
Dang chii y la sue manh quan sy ciia Trung Qude dang tang nhanh ca ve chieu rpng va chieu sau. Hai ITnh vyc hai quan va vu trii ciia Trung Qude cd the cd dot pha trong nhiing nam tdi. Nhu vay, Trung Qude dang tra thanh mdt ddi thii canh tranh nang can ddi vdd My ddng thda tren hai khia eanh, quan sy eung nhu kinh tl.
luy nhien, cQng can luu y rang, Trung Quoc van chua xay dyng dugc nhiing nin tang viing chae trong qua trinh "trdi day" nhu: nghien cuu KH&CN phat trien nhanh nhung chua manh me va virng chae, trinh dp dao tao chua cao, thilu hyt nang lugng va nguyen lieu trim trpng, phan hoa giau ngheo sau sac din muc gay bit on xa hdi, d nhiem mdi trudng d muc bao ddng, ty le dan sd gia dang tang len nhanh chdng (trong
-NhCmg vin dS KINH T^ VA CHiNH TRj T H 6 GIOI S6 2(190) 2012
Nguyin Thanh D(pc Cai each c^c to chiPC quoc t§ sau khung hoang dieu kien nin kinh tl nay cdn chua trd nen giau
cd, dieu nay se lam cham sy tang trudng tilp tyc ciia Trung Qude va gay khd khan cho viec xay dyng ehinh sach bao hilm xa hdi cung nhu chinh sach luang huu), nguon lyc xay dyng lyc lugng quan sy cdn thip do thu nhap qude dan tinh theo diu ngirdi cdn thip, phan quyin qua manh dan din chu nghTa dja phuang hoac bao loan xa hdi d mdt sd vung va khu \ ye...
Cae cuang qude mai ndi len dang ddi hdi \'i tri ciia minh tren trudng qude tl, \a sy \ilt lai luat chai. Cae nudc nhu Trung Qude, Nga, An Dp, Brazil... dang bit diu tha> ddi cac quy tic ciia cudc chai quan ly t> gia hdi doai, nang lugng, thuang mai... Lien minh G20 ciia cac nudc dang phat triln (DPT), da cd lap trirdng vung chae \ e thuang mai. Cac thj trud'ng mdi ndi dang bd phieu - tu bd \ iec \ a\ IMF/WB.
Chau Au va My dang ddi mat cac thach thuc chinh tri, kinh te va an ninh mai. Hp se sdm bi thach thuc \e vi the la nguai dinh quy tac, do
"nhung ngudi mai" dang ndi len trong nin kinh te toan cau, quyet tam viet lai mdt sd cac quy tac. Cac phuang thuc eu dang bi thach thuc bdi cac mang luai mai. cai se tang cuang vj the ciia nliiing ngudi mai, va dang dien ra cudc cai bien trong dieu tiet toan cau sang "cai gi do" cd ket cau md han, tinh iing phd ldn han va dinh hudng thi trudng han.
Sy thay ddi mang tinh kien tao nay se tao ra sue ep ldn ddi vai cac the che toan cau do My dan dat dugc tao dyng ke tir thap ky 1940. Dudi sy dan dat ciia Washington, cae the che da phuong nay da thiic day ty do hoa thuang mai, ma cua cae thi trudng vdn, va khdng phd bien vu khi hat nhan, bao dam mdt nen hoa binh tuong ddi va thinh vugng trong sudt 6 thap ky va dem lai nhiing lgi ich to lan cho My. Nhung tu khi cac cudng quoc dang ndi len nhu Trung Quoc va An Dp tham gia vao khudn khd nay,
•? f r f
tuong lai ciia nhiing the che qude te dd se la khdng chic chin, ma ed the thay ddi.
Do tuang quan sue manh va quyen lyc da thay ddi. My va EU budc phai chap nhan Trung Qude va mdt sd nudc tham gia vao cau triic quan ly toan can ma hp da thict lap va bao ve trong nhieu thap ky qua. Nhung Trung Qude khdng de dang chap nhan nhirng the che loan cau cung nhu cac luat chai do phuang Tay dSt ra. Trung Qude mudn thay ddi cae TCQT de phyc vu cho lgi ich cua minh va theo quan diem chien luge ciia minh. Tuy nhien, Trung Qude rat khac biet ve van hoa, lich sir, kinh te va dac biet ve chinh tri, dieu nay se gay ra nhieu thach thuc cho viec cai td cac TCQT cung nhu thilt ke lai cac gia tri va luat chai.
1.2. Toan cau hod va hgi nhap kinh te
f r
quoc te.
Toan cau hda va hdi nhap kinh te qude te da va dang dat ra nhirng yeu cau mdi, van de mai, ddi hdi cac thiet ehe toan cau phai giai quyet.
Vdi sy tang cudng toan cau hoa, cac nudc phu thudc lan nhau sau han, sy xuat hien nhiing lien nganh (hay eae van de cheo) ddi hdi phai hgp tac de giai quyet cac van de. Trong qua trinh hgp tac, cac nha nudc dan tdc can cam kit vdi nhau ve nhiing gi hp mudn lam va nhiing gi hp khdng mudn lam. Cac cam kit dd dugc thi hien trong cac nguyen tae nhat dinh dd la cac quy tac ciia trd chai. Cac the chi toan ciu cin thilt de thyc hien cac qui tac dd cung nhu giam sat cac quy tae dd.
Sau khung hoang tai chinh toan ciu nam 2008, loan cdu hod da co nhiing bieu hien miri.
Toan cau hda da bi thu hep ea vl quan niem lan tren thyc te. Trudc hit, ky nguyen ciia thi trudng ty do dudng nhu da kit thiic. Md hinh thi trudng ty do kilu Anglo-Saxon da keo dai gin 30 nam nay da thit bai. Vai trd diiu tilt cua nha nude ddi vdi nin kinh tl da tang len manh me sau khiing hoang, cung vdi nd la sy thoai lui ciia thi trudng ty do va ciia khu vyc tu nhan, ca d trong nudc lan tren thyc tl. Thic hai, qua trinh ty do hda, ca thuong mai, FDI va tai chinh deu
NhCrng vin dS KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj TH^ GIQI S6 2(190) 2012-
Cai c^ch c^c t6 chirc qu6c t6 sau ,khung hoang Nguyin Thanh Diec giam ca ve qui md va toe dp. Nhilu nudc tren
thi gidi coi toan ciu hda la cd hai, to^n ciu hda da lam lay lan nhanh ehdng nh&ng hau qu^ tieu cyc cua khung hoang. Xuit khau toan ciu dang sut giam nghiem trpng. Ddng vdn t o ^ eau syt giam manh, dSe bift d c^c nudc phdt trien. Thii- ba, sau khung hodng, xu hudng bao hp da dSc biet gia tdng. Chinh xu hudng bdo hp nay sg Id lyc can nghiem trpng doi vdri qud trinh todn ciu hda sau khiing hoang. Cudc chiln gi&a qud trinh toan cau hda, ty do hda vdi xu hudng bao hp van se tiep tuc. Khiing hoang kinh tl toan ciu da lam cho cac nudc deu tSng cudng bdo hp de bao \ c san xuat trong nudc, ca d cdc nudc phdt trien va dang phdt trien.
Sy thay ddi quy md va tinh chat ciia toan ciu hod sau khiing hodng, da ddt ra cdc van de mdi ddi vai cdc TCQT nay. Nhiem vu ciia cdc the che qude te, truac hit la WTO Id ldm sao dl chdng lai xu hudng bao hd dang tdng ien trong nen kinh te the giai, thiic day ty do hod thuang mai hon nua.
Tuy nhien, tren thyc tl, cae TCQT van chua lam duge nhu vay. Cdc TCQT can dl xu ly cdc that bai thi trudng (chdng ddc quyen, gidm d nhiem), sdn xuat hang hod cdng cdng... dn dinh tdi chinh qude te, cac quy tac thuong mai todn cau... Khung hodng tai chinh lan truyen nhanh trong vd giua cdc viing, song tdc ddng khdng phdi tdd tat ed cac nuac, ma vdo cdc nudc cd che dp hdi dodi va he thdng ngan hdng da ty do hod nhanh. Mdt nhdm nhd cdc nudc cd he thdng manh da khdng trien khai cdc quy tie truyln sy dn dinh sang cdc nuac khdc. Thay vi dieu do, cdc nuac gidu vd dn dinh da diing vi the ciia minh trong IMF, WTO, WB de budc cdc nin kinh te kem phat trien ty do hod nhanh, Iam tang tinh de thuong tdn truac khung hoang. Cdc quy tac thuong mai toan cau cung vay... Cdc vi du do cho thay, cdc the che lam nhieu han la vai trd cung iing hang hoa edng cpng. Chiing kit ndi ede chfnh phu theo each cho thay khdng chi
ai cung ung hang hod cdng cdng, ma cdn d cho cdc chinh phii tin ring hp cd quyen lam vd tai sao... Vdi cdc thiet che qude te, cdc chinh phii cd the Cling nhau dinh ra cdc mue tieu...
1.3. Cdch m^ng khoa hgc va cong ngh§
Cdch mgng cong ngh^ hien dgi cd tdc ddng quan trpng den mpi mdt ciia ddi sdng kinh te xa hpi todn ciu, gdp phin tao lap md hinh sdn xuat mdi, nen kinh te m6i mang linh todn cdu ngay cdng ldn.
NIU d the ky XX, nhiing tien bd cua hda hoc vd vat ly ddng vai trd chii dao, thi d the ky XXI Id nhiing tien bp cua cdng nghf cao. Cong ngh?
cao dd the hien rd cdc ddc diem nhu: chiia dung no lyc quan trpng ve nghien ciiu va phdt trien;
cd y nghTa chiln luge ddi vai qude gia; sdn pham dugc ddi mai nhanh chdng; dau tu ldn, dp rui ro cao, nhung khi thdnh cdng se dem lai lgi nhuan khdng Id; thiic day ndng lyc canh tranh vd hgp tdc trong R&D, sdn xuat vd tim kiem thi trudng tren quy md todn cau. CJ the ky XXI, dac diem ndi bat cua sy phdt trien KH&CN la su phdt trien cua nen kinh te tri thiic va sy chuyen ddi sang nen kinh te tri thiic.
Trong 10 nam tai, KH&CN van phdi tap trung gidi quyet cdc van de nhu dan sd thi gidi tang len cung vdi nhirng nhu ciu vd ddi hdi ciia nguai dan khdng ngimg ma rdng, siic khde cd nhan vd cpng ddng ddi hdi phdi co nhung bien phap chiia trj hieu qud hon vd nhanh chdng hon, miic dp tdn h^i truac cdc djch benh, bien ddi khi hau va thdm hpa thien nhien ddi hdi phai ra siic tim kilm nhirng phuang phdp mai de bdo ve va phdng ngira, thilu hut nang lugng toan cau, nguy ca khung hoang luang thyc todn ciu...
Theo dy bdo ctia RAND, cong nghe ctia nam 2020 se la su tich hgp ciia nhilu ITnh vyc, lam thay ddi dien mao xa hpi; tao ra siic manh kinh te, chinh trj to ldn tren quy md todn ciu. Theo dd, vao nam 2020, thi gidi se xuit hien khoang -Nhifng vin 6§ KINH T 6 VA C H I N H TRj TH^ G\t/\ S6 2(190) 2012
Nguyin Thanh Dipc Cai each cac to chuc qude te sau khung hoang 56 ling dung cdng nghe quan trpng, trong dd cd
16 cdng nghe se la tilm nang thuang mai ldn nhu: cac quy trinh san xuat giam din va loai bd chat thai ddng thdi vdi giam lugng sir dung vat lieu ddc hai (san xuit cdng nghiep xanh); truyln thdng vd tuyen, ket ndi dien thoai \a internel khdng day; thdng tin lien lac va luu trir IM kha nang truy cap nhanh cac ngudn thdng tin a bai cu dau vao bat cir thdi diem nao; cac phuang phap ca hpe lugng tir se ma hoa thdng tin. dam bao an toan cao trong trao ddi: the RFID (nhan dang tan sd \d IUNCMI) dugc dimg dc theo doi san pham tir nai san xuat den nai ban hang \a xa hon den tirng ca nhan \a sy di chu>cn cua hp; ca> trdng bien ddi gene (GM) tao nguon thyc pham gia tri dinh dirdiig cao, san lugng ldn ddng thdi \di giam thieu lugng thudc trir sau...
Dac diem mdi ciia cudc each mang KH&CN nghe trong thap k> tdi se dat ra nhung yeu cau mdi ddi \ di cai each cdc the che qude le. Sy nhay \pt ciia cdch mang KH&CN thuc day ndng lyc hgp tdc trong R&D cung nhu qude te hod cdc hoat ddng KH&CN. Viec quoc te hoa cac hoat ddng KH&CN ddi hdi su hgp tac giua cdc nude, nhat la cac nudc ldn trong hoat ddng KH&CN. Trong sy hgp tac nay. nhat thiet phai dinh ra cdc quy tac. luat chai. Cac quy tac, luat chai dd dugc hien than trong cdc the che qude le.
Cudc cdch mang KH&CN trong thap ky tdi ciing ddi hdi sdn xuat va lim kiem Ihi Irudng tren quy md loan cau, cung nhu gidi quyet cac vin dl Iren qui md loan eau. Dan thudc d day la, phdi ed quan tri cap todn cau de gidi quyet nhiing vin dh loan cau. Dieu dd cd nghTa la can ed nhirng ddi mdi trong the the qude le de ddp irng vdri nhiing van de loan cau mdi.
2. Phu-ffng hirong cai to cac TCQT
Bdi eanh thay ddi, sii menh cung thay ddi, song hiu nhu khong co sir diiu chinh l&n ve ca cdu qudn tri, ca cdu ra quyit dinh, edng cu thyc hien d cdc TCQT. Day Id mdt deh tic then chdt, can trd ldn din diiu chinh tren cdc mat khac d
cac Id chirc nay. Ly do kha rd rang: cdc nudc hiing manh, ndm quyin quyet dinh trong cdc td ehii'c nay diu khdng mudn til' bd quyen lyc va anh hirdng ciia minh trong cac td chirc dd.
Cling chinh vi vay, hieu lyc, tinh hgp phdp ciia cac Id chirc nay yeu di nghiem trpng. Cho den nay, trong qua trinh hoat ddng ciia minh, eae the che kinh te quoc te nay thudng phdi dieu ehinh chuc nang va vai trd tuy theo sy thay ddi eua bdi eanh quoc le va dieu chinh chien luge eiia eae thanh vien ehii chdt, dac biet la My.
Cae thanh NICMI nay da hirdng cdc td chirc tren theo hudng: hgp tac ticMi te qude te de phdng chdng khiing hoang (IMF), tang trudng thuong mai \ i phat trien, cdng bang (WTO), hd trg phdt trien dai han (WB).
lat ea cac thiet che tren d miic dp nhdt dinh da ho trg cho hoat ddng ciia cdc qude gia. Dudi hinh thirc hd trp ky thuat, phan ldn cac thiet che nay da giiip cac nudc xay dyng nang lyc trong nudc. Tuy nhien, dieu ma cdc nudc ngheo can la nhCrng thay doi the che todn cdu phai thudn lai cho phdt irien, trong khi trpng tam ciia IMF/WB lai chuyen tir chinh sdch dn djnh hod.
dieu chinh ca cau. sang "the che tdt" tire la hp chi nham vao thay ddi cac the che qude gia ciia cac nudc ngheo.
Cdn CC) cdc nguyen ldc nhdl dinh quy dinh viec thiet ke cdc the che quoc te. Vdy cc'ic nguyen tdc do Id gt? Theo Mervyn King (2006).
CO 5 nguyen tdc cdn theo:
i) Chi tao lap cdc the che can thilt. Cdc thilt che qude te nen tap trung vdo cdc ITnh vyc qudn tri toan cau, nai md chiing ta can xir ly cdc van de mdt cdch tap the bat ke la thuong mai. mdi trudng. hay nhirng thay ddi trong chinh sdch kinh te vT md. Cdc the che kinh tl todn ciu dang chuyen bien theo xu huang chuyen tap trung hon vdo cdc chiic nang chinh, cdc vin dl chinh, chuyen mdt sd chiic nang, van de khdc cho cdc td chuc khu vyc, song phuang, chuyen nganh.
ii) Cac cam ket ma cdc nude tham gia phai ro rang. Cdng viec ciia cdc TCQT la ho trg cdc NhOng vin dS KINH Tfi VA CHINH TR! THt GIQI So 2(190) 2012-
Cai each c^c to chiyc qu6c te sau khung hoang Nguyin Thanh Oifc cam ket dd. Trong nhieu truang hgp, nhu Id
ngudi trpng tai, chirc nang cua cac TCQT la bao ve chiing. Dieu dd chi cd the neu nhQng ngudi chai - cac nude biet rat rd ve eae quy lae trd chai da dugc nhal tri. Neu khdng, mpi thiet ke
xa han nira eung ching cd ich gi.
iii) Cung cap cho eae TCQT cdc cdng cu can ihiet de lam trpng lai phan xir (umpire) cdc cam ket ciia eae nha nudc quoc gia. Song, cac nhan \ien \a qudn ly ciia ede the che qude le can cd trach nhiem giai trinh ddi \'di loan the cdng ddng eae nha nudc qude gia ve hieu nang ciia minh trong \'iec bao ve eae quy lae.
i\) Can km y rang chiing ta khdng bat dau tii' so khdng, chiing ta phai chap nhan nhCrng rang budc lich sir. Cac thiet che hien hanh cd luc lugng nhan sy nhat djnh vd rat nhieu ca sd ha tang (td chirc) can eho tuang lai. Song dieu dd khdng cd nghTa Id cdi cdch se de dang cd qua nhieu lai ich bat di bat dich cdn trd cdi cdch.
v) Trdnh sy chdng cheo khdng can thiet. Cdc thiet che qude te da tang manh trong nhiing nam gan day, nhieu thiel ehe dam len chan nhau. Sy triing lap \ e vai trd gay lang phi thdi gian, tien bac. Mdi thiet che can cd mdt sir menh rd rdng, va can phai lap trung vdo nhung sii menh cua minh. Duang nhien, cdc nude ddng vai trd chi phdi trong mdt thiel che (ma khdng cd vai trd d thiel che khdc) se cd ddng lye tdng cudng vai trd eua thiet ehe dd vd do dd de gay tdn hai cho thiet che khdc. Do vay, cdc nudc thanh vien nen gidi han "cudc tranh gidnh lanh dja"
Thyc te cho thay, tat cd cdc nguyen tic nay dang dugc theo dudi. WTO Id trpng tdi thirc sy ddi vdi cam ket eiia cdc nudc ve cdc han che thuang mai. WTO ed tam quan trpng ndi bat trong cdc cam ket ciia chinh cdc nhd nude qude gia. That bai cua cdc nudc trong viec ky kll vdng ddm phdn thuong mai da phuong tir khi WTO dugc thanh lap han mdt thap ky nay la dang lo ngai. Vdng ddm phdn Doha da khdng hoan thdnh nhu ke hoach. Loi khdng phdi d
WTO, ma la cdc ehinh phii qude gia chua sdn sang cd cdc cam ket can thiet.
Vciy .xu hucrng cai cdch ccic TCQT trcmg luong hit Id gi? The gidi dang dirng trudc ngu&ng cira ciia chu nghTa da phucrng mc'ri. Tdng thu ky Lien hgp quoc Ban Kee-moon td y hy vpng ring chiln thdng eiia dng Obama cd the
"md ra ky nguyen ciia chii nghTa da phuang mdi" Theo Chu tich WB Robert B. Zoellick, cupe khiing hodng tai chinh hien nay cho thay can phai ed mot "chii nghTa da phuang mdri" thay cho cae ciu tnic da loi thdi hien nay. "Chung ta phai hif n dai hod chii nghTa da phuang vd cdc thj trucmg cho mdt nen kinh le the gidi dang thay doi" (Robert B. Zoellick. 2008).
loan eau hod vd cdc thj trudng ngdy nay phan anh nhirng thay ddi to lan trong cdng nghe thdng tin vd vien thdng, cdc ddng tdi chinh va thuang mai, tinh nang ddng ciia lao ddng, cac lire lugng eanh tranh mdi to ldn. Nhirng thdch thiic mdi ddi hoi phuong thiirc hgp tdc vd phdi hgp mdi (Hinh thirc cu khdng phii hgp vdi toan ciu hod, lien kit kinh te). Cdc thdch thirc ddi vdi cdng ddng qude te hien nay (Igi ich chung ciia tat ca cac qude gia, tir nucrc ngheo nhat den nudc hiing manh nhat) trong hgp tdc vd phdi hgp hanh ddng, vai mirc dp sau hon, rdng han:
dau tranh chdng lai bien ddi khi hau, xa\ dyng lai he thdng tai chinh loan cau, thuc day phat trien ben virng, an ninh luang thyc, bat dn ve thj trudng nang lugng, nguyen lieu, ddi ngheo.
Tucrng quan lire luang mai cUng ung ho chit nghia da phuang. Cdc quyen lyc kinh te mdi dang ndi Ien, tra thdnh cae ben lien quan trong he thdng loan cau, va hp mudn dugc lang nghe. My khdng the mdt minh gidi quyet nhieu van de.
Cdc phuong thirc hoat dpng vd qudn ly kinh te qude te cii dang bj thdch thiic bdri cac phuang thirc mdi {ddn chu hod, theo cdu true mgng luai...) - phuang thirc se tang eudng vj the cua nhiing the lire mdi. Dang dien ra cupe cdi bien trong dieu liel toan cau sang phuang thiic mdi
8 -NhCrng vin di KINH T t VA CHJNH TR! T H ^ G i a i S6 2(190) 2012
Nguyin Thanh Oii-c Cai each cac to chii'c quoc td sau khung hoang cd kel cau md han, dan ehii han, linh hoal va cd
tinh irng phd ldn han...
Cd Ihl ndi, vl dai han, diiu ehinh cac thi chi kinh le todn cau cd thi di theo nhirng xu hirdng tren, vdi cdc ndi dung mdi.
Trcjng tdm Id "ngdn ngira khung hoang chir khong cht Id giai qiiyii khung hoang
Tdng cucrng quyen lire cua cdc t6 chirc quc)c Ic. ha> md rdng qu\en han (pham vi) \a quyin lyc phap ly, eung ed, lang cudng eae nhung qu\ lae loan cau. Phat triln eae Id chirc lodn cau. cac to chirc na> se dua ra eae qu\ tic phii hgp de kiem soal thi trudrng tai chinh trong tirng giai doan \ a khi can thiel. phoi hgp chinh sach tren pham \ i loan cau de ddi phd \ai eae cudc khiing hoang tai chinh trong tuang lai.
- Ldi cuon, hop ldc vd chia .sc trdch nhiem.
Thiel lap mdt mang ludi sao eho cdc vin de loan cau phai dugc dy tinh trudc, phdng ngira, chii' khdng chi gidi quyel sau khi nd bimg nd.
Mang ludi nay dugc xay dung tren linh thin trach nhiem chia se ddi vdi "siic khoe" ciia kinh te chinh lrj loan cau va Idi eudn cac ddi tdc ldn trong nen kinh te, mang ludi ay dya vao sy lanh dao qude gia \ a hgp lac qude le.
- Mot mgng luc'ri mem deo, linh hogt, chir khdng phai Id cd djnh, cirng nhac. Cdc TCQT ndy se khdng ed sd lugng thanh vien cu the ma phai rat linh hoat va cd the md rdng ra ciing vdi thdi gian. Mdt nhdm chi dao mdi se bao gdm Brazil, Trung Qude, An Dp, Mexico, Nga, A rap-Xe lit. Nam Phi, vd G-7, se ddi thoai chinh thirc va khdng chinh thiic. Cau thanh ciia nhdm ndy se thay ddi theo tirng hoan canh, theo mdt mang ludi gin kit, he thong. Cdc gidi phdp mang tinli he thdng cd ihl giai quylt nguyen nhan sau xa eiia cudc khiing hodng tai chinh dang diin ra vd ciing phue tap. Ve pham vi thim quyin, mang luai nay xac djnh lai chii nghTa da phuong kinh te rdng hon, mdt ehu
nghTa da phuang kinh te mdi vdi ndi dung khdng chi gidi han trong cac ITnh vyc Iruyen thdng la lai chinh va thuang mai. Ngay nay, nang lugng, sy bien ddi ciia khi hau va khdi phue su dn dinh d eae qude gia sau chien tranh cung la nhfrng van dc phai dugc quan tam trong chii nghTa da phuang kinh le. Khung khd da phuang mdi phai kel ndi nang lugng vdi bien ddi khi hau. Can "thuang lugng loan cau" giua cac nha san xual va tieu thu ldn ve nang lugng.
Vi lgi ich ehung ma quan ly khung gia ciing cd lgi, hudng tdi cac chien luge tang truang carbon thap, an ninh qude le ldn han... Mdt hiep dinh ve bien ddi khi hau cung can cdc cdng cu mdi. Can co che mdi ve hd trg trdng rimg, phat IricMi cac cdng nghe mdi, hd trg cac nudc ngheo...
- Dodn kel todn cdu. Hd trg cac nudc dang phat trien trong khdi phue va phdt trien kinh le trong dai han.
Cdc TCQT se dugc dieu chinh nhu sau:
Doi vdi WTO. Thuang mai Id then chdt, vi nd ddng cham den ddi sdng ciia mpi ngudi d nudc giau cung nhu nudc ngheo. Viet lai cdc quy tac thuang mai. lam cho chiing cdng bang la cap thiel, ddng thdi can nghiem tuc han trong thye thi cac quy tic. WTO la ihl chi tam diem ciia trat ly kinh te thuang mai quoc tl, nhirng trat ty dd dang thay ddi rit nhanh, vd WTO cin cd sy dieu chinh de duy tri vai trd thich dang \ a tinh hgp phdp ciia minh trong ca hai Ihl gidi phdt trien va dang phat triln. Xu Ihl diiu chinh WTO: i) Viee thye thi cdc hiep djnh ciia WTO can tinh ldi ndng lyc phdp ly, thi chi va cdng nghe cua cdc nude kem phdt triln hon; ii) Cdc vdng dam phdn ty do hod thuang mai cin can bang han vdi nang lyc eiia cdc nin kinh tl dang phat trien; iii) Cac cudc dam phan thuong mai can phai tap trung han vao cdc diem chinh, dac biet la chdng lai xu huang bao hd dang tang len sau khiing hoang tai chinh loan ciu 2008; iv)
NhCrng vin dS KINH T t VA CHJNH TR! TH^ GIQI S6 2(190) 2012-
Cai each c^c t6 chifc qu6c t l sau khung hoang Nguyin Thanh DIFC
Tao lap cac quy tac cdng bdng, thira nhan cdc diem xuat phdt rit khde nhau eiia eae nudc; v) WTO cd the se phdi lap lai cdch lilp ean da loe dp, nhu tai Vdng Tokyo, hodc dam phdn vc ddi xir dac biet trong khudn khd eae quy tic chung;
vi) Cdc van de phi thuang mai (nhu mdi trudng, tieu chuan lao ddng...) ed thi dugc xir ly bdi hodc tir cdc dien dan thich hgp ben ngoai WTO, hodc dugc ldng vdo trong eae thuang lugng WTO theo mdt phong each thyc te va thyc dung; \ii) Cai each quan trj WTO theo hudng lang cudng tinh ddc lap eiia td chirc nay, tdng eudng quyen han cua 1 dng giam ddc va Ban thuky...
- Doi vc'ri IMF IMF cd vj the tdt de giiip cdc nudc xir ly loan cau hod nhat la linh de thuang tdn tir sy thdi qud tai hai eiia thj trudrng ldi ehinh. De Idm viec dd hGu hieu han, IMF can loai bd mdt sd he tu tudng Idi thdi cua nd, vd cdc thdnh vien hiing manh eua nd can nghiem tiic hon trong hgp tdc lien te va tdi chinh todn cau, va (trong phdi hgp vdi cdc cudrng qude dang ndi len) can sdp xep lai td chiie sao cho ed the khdi phye ldng tin eua "nhirng ngudi mdi" - nhiing ngudri ma IMF mudn Idi keo vdo hgp tdc da phuang. Cdc tu tudrng cdi each bao hdm nhieu van de vd can ed mdt gdi cdc cdi cdch IMF nghiem tiie va neu dugc lien hdnh dong thdi se cd the tao ra mdt sy khde biet trong vai trd, trdch nhiem, tham quyen vd hieu lye ciia IMF Hai hudrng ldn trong cdi cdch IMF: Thu nhdt, cdn khdn cdp dinh lgi trong tdm cug IMF Viec xdc djnh lai trgng tam ciia IMF se giup cham diit sy suy gidm tieng tam ciia td chirc nay, ddng thai, cac ngudn lye tilt kiem dugc se dugc sir dung vdo cdc ITnh vyc bj xao nhang va cdc ITnh vyc quan tam mdi. Cdc hudng trong tdm Id tang eudng hgp tdc qude te, gidm sdt; dl
cao nhipm vu dy bdo khung hodng; tdng cudng chirc ndng xue lien ede phdp quy vd tieu chuan qiloc le Ihdng qua nhieu edng cu khac nhau; can Ihicp vao khu vyc tdi ehinh, hgp tac vdi khu vyc tu nhan; lai xdc djnh nhiem vu ho trg ky thuat, ho trg phdt trien, chong ddi ngheo. Thir hai, cdi ccich qudn tri IMF lien quan khdng chi ve quyen bd phieu ciia cdc nudc thanh vien (quylt djnh bdi phieu biu ca bdn va han ngach), md ea vl cdc nhan td khdc quyet djnh sy dai dien hiru hieu ciia cdc nudc thanh vien trong IMI' bao gdm: quy md va cau tao eiia Hdi ddng gidm doe, chat lugng ciia cdc gidm ddc dieu hanh dugc chi djnh hay dugc bau cir de dai dicMi cho cdc thdnh vien; cdch thirc ma cdc co quan hoach djnh chuang trinh nghj sy loan cau khdc nhau (nhal Id (j20) phdi hgp vdi IMF;
cdch thirc ede quyet djnh dugc dua ra trong IMF (nhu diing da sd ddc biet hay da sd kep);
cdc quy trinh chpn tdng gidm ddc va cdc phd tdng gidm ddc.
Doi vcri WB. Vien trg phdt trien cd the ddng vai trd then chdt trong qudn ly todn cau hod. Theo nhieu phan tich \ a dy bdo. nhu cau vien trg phat trien trong thdri gian tdi se tiep tuc ngdy edng ldn, song se cd nhirng thay ddi ve mue tieu, phuong thirc, dieu kien vien trg... WB da cd ddng gdp ehinh, ed \e ky thuat vdri tu cdch Id nhd tu van cho ede nuac nhan vien trg, lan vai trd Id dien dan eho hgp tac giiia cdc nhd tai trg. De thye hien hiru hieu vai trd ndy, WB phdi ed mdt tam nhin mdri ve phdt trien, sao cho gan han vai cdc nuac cd nhu ciu. Viee phi tap trung hod WB la dang theo hudng nay. Vdi tu each Id dien dan hgp tdc, WB can ldi eudn va lap hgp manh han cdc nhd tai trg, dl lam tang hieu qud vien trgf
10 -NhCrng vin d§ KINH T t VA C H I N H T R | T H £ Giai S6 2(190) 2012
Nguyin Thanh DCrc Cai each cac to chiFC quoc t l sau khung hoang
T a i lieu tham khao:
1. Bd KH&CN Trung Qude: Bdo cc'io phdl Irien KHCN qiicic li 2009, NXB. Khoa hpe Trung Qude, 2009
2. Nhitng vdn de lan cua ihi giai vd qud trinh hoi nhdp, phdt Iriin cua nudc tg. NXB. Chinh lrj qude gia, Ha Ndi, 2004.
3. So tay vi he thdng giai quyit iranh chdp cua WTO, N X B . Chinh lrj qude gia. Ha Ndi, 2005.
4. Tim hieu lo chirc thucmg mgi thi gic'ri (WTO), NXB. Chinh tri qude gia. Ha Ndi, 2004.
5. Tim hieu to chirc thuxrng mgi the giiri (W TO). NXB. Lao ddng xa hdi. Ha Ndi, 2005.
6. Tran Giai Qui, Ly Duang (2011): Phdn lich hdi canh kinh li Trung Qudc-Bdo cdo mua xudn ndm 2011, NXB Van hiin Khoa hpe xa hdi. Bdc kinh.
7. Bordo. M. D. (1992): The Brelton Woods International Monetary System: An Historical Ovcrvicyv. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers Series, Working Paper No. 4033.
8. Boughlon, J. (2002): IThy While. Not Keynes? Inventing the Post-War International Monetary System. Working Paper 02/52. International Monetary Fund, March 2002
9. Jane D'Arista; Keith Griffin; Lisa Jordan (2000), Democratizing Global Economic Governance: .4 PERI Symposium, PERI working paper 26, http: WW w .umass.edu/peri/pdfs/WP26.pdf
IO.de Brouwer, G. (2002). The IMF and East Asia: A Changing Regional Financial Architecture
11. Deere-Birkbeek. C. and Monagle, C. (2009), Strengthening Multilateralism: A Mapping of Selected Proposals on WTO Reform and Improvements in Global Trade Governance (discussion draft, November 2009), International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland and the Global Economic Governance Programme, Oxford, UK.
12. Eichengreen. B. (1999), Toward a New International Financial Architecture: A Practiced Post Asia Agenda, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
13. Feldstein, M. (1998), Refocusing the IMF Foreign Affairs 77(2). March/April, pp. 2033."
14. G20 Communique (2006) Meeting of Ministers and Governors in Melbourne November 18- 19,2006
15. Gilbert, C L . and D. Vines eds. (2000), The World Bank: Structure and Policies, Cambridge.
Cambridge University Press,
16. Mervyn King (2006), "Through the looking glass - reform of the international institutions", BIS Review 126/2006 (Text of the Inaugural International Distinguished Lecture by Mr Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, to the Melbourne Centre for Financial Studies, Melbourne, 21 December 2006).
17 Robert B. Zoellick (2008), Needed: new multilateralism, October 20,
18. http://www.boston.eom/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/l0/20/needed_ne w multilateralism/
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