TH! TftlfONG LAO DONG 6 VUONG QUOC HNH TAONG BOI CANH AA€XIT HI€N NAV VA MOT SO THACH THUC DAT AA
H6 Thi Thu HuyIn' Le Thi Kim Oanh**
Tom tat: Su kiin Brexit da duac du bdo la se dem lai nhirng dnh hu&ng tiiu cue din nin kinh ti Vuong quoc Anh, bao gom cd thi truang lao dpng. Nhung thuc ti ke tit thdng 6/2016 din nay, thi tru&ng lao dong nuac ndy vdn & tinh trang tot. Ti li thdt nghiip & Anh dang thdp nhdt ki tie ndm 1975, & muc 4,2%, bdt chdp tinh trang bdt on liin quan Brexit.
Bdi viit tim hiiu thuc trang thi tru&ng lao dong ciia Anh vd nhiing thdch thuc Anh dang vd se phdi doi mat.
Tu' khoa: Vuong quoc Anh, Brexit, thi truang lao dong, viic ldm
Abstract: Brexit has been forecasted to have negative effects to the UK economy, including the labor market But in fact since June 2016 until now, the labor market in this country is still in good condition. The unemployment rate in the UK is the lowest since 1975, at 4.2%, despite the Brexit-related unrest. The article explores the situation ofthe UK labor market and the challenges that UK is facing and will face.
Keywords: United Kingdom, Brexit, labor market, employment
H a i nam da ttdi qua ke tii khi ngudi dan dan y va cd luc dao ddng d mire 1,2 USD Anb bd phieu lira chgn Brexit, ca Chinh phu trong thang 1/2017 - tire sut 20%) so vdi miic Anh va cac quan cbiic Lien minh Chau Au tmdc cugc trung cdu dan y. Da tmgt ddc ciia van chua di ddn dugc mdt thda thuan cudi GBP da tbiic ddy Iam phat tai Anb. Gia hang cung. Trong khi dd, nhiing tac ddng ciia su bda d cac cira hang da tang vi cac bang hda kien nay den ngudi dan trong kbu vuc la nhap khdu - nhu xe hai, thidt bi dien tii va khdng he nhd. Tac ddng ro rang nhat la trong cac thuc pham nhat dinh - trd nen ddt do bon ITnh vuc kinh te va tai chinb khi ddng bang ddi vdi nhting ngudi sii dung dong bang Anh Anh (GBP) da roi xudng day ciia 30 nam vdi de thanh toan. Bdi canh nen kinh td u am lieu mire dudi 1,33 USD ngay sau cudc trung cau cd lam cho tbj tmdng lao ddng gap khd
•^-^ klian? c a u tra ldi dang ngac nhien la; khdng.
^•**Ths, Vien Nghien cun Chau Au ^ . ,g ^^^^ ^^^-^ ^ ^ ^ ^^^^ ^^^.p ^^.^ ^ . ^ Nhan bdi ngdy: 30/5/2019 nam 1975, d miic 4,2%), bdt chdp tinh trang Phdn biin xong 5/6/2019 ^,4^ 5^ lien quan ddn Brexit.
Chdp nhdn ddng 15/6/2019
Q'hi teue^ng Lao d$ng.„. 2 9
1. Thi trirtmg lao flong Anh tru&c Brexit
1.1. Tile viec ldm
Trong sd cac nudc chau Au, Anb la nudc it nhidu chiu anh hudng nhat bdi cudc khung hoang kmh te nam 2008. Nhd dd, thi tmdng lao dgng Anh dat dugc nhiing ket qua tdt hon mong dgi ngay sau giai doan suy thoai. Nam 2012, nen kinh te Anh cd su phuc
Hinh 1: Tile viec ldm &Anh giai doan 2005 - 2017
hdi manh me, ti le viec lam trd lai miic tnrdc suy thoai tm'dc kbi cham dinh (75%) vao nam 2016, cao nhat mpi thdi dai. Tang trudng viec lam dac biet manh me la d gidi nii, vdi ti le lao ddng nii tang tir 67% nam 2008 len 70% vao nam 2016. Trong khi dd, ti le viec lam ciia nam gidi da vugt qua miic 2008, dat 79% vao ddu nam 2016.
Nguon: Vdn phong Thong ki quoc gia Anh.
Mat khac, du sd viec lam tu do tang len sau khung hoang nhung ti le viec lam toan thdi gian van chiem da sd ttong tdng sd viec lam d Vuong qudc Anb. Theo sd Heu thdng ke ciia Van phdng Thdng ke qudc gia Anh, nam 2016, ti Ie lao dgng Iam viec toan thdi gian chi^m 64% so vdi 66% nam 2008' tinh trong tdng luc lugng lao ddng ciia Vuong
EPS, ''The UK labour market: where do we stand
qudc Anh. Ti le lao ddng ban thdi gian ciing tang nhe do bau qua ciia suy thoai kinh te nhung sau dd da trd lai miic tmdc Idiiing hoang. Dang chii y la trong khi sd viec lam ban thdi gian cua phu nii giam di thi sd lugng viec lam ban thdi gian ciia nam gidi lai tang len, Didu nay trai ngugc hoan toan so vdi nbiing nudc khac trong Lien minh Chau Au khi ma so lupng cdng viec ban tbdi gian cbidm mdt ti le ldn trong tdng ti Ie viec
30 NGHIEN ClJfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
lam, va phan ldn luc lupng tham gia loai binh lao dpng nay la phu nii.
Tinh tren tbi trudng lao ddng tai Anh, cd 11% (khoang 3,4 trieu ngu'di) la ngudi nudc ngoai (7% la cdng dan EU, 4%) la cac nudc ngoai EU)^. Trong giai doan 2008- 2016, ti le viec lam cua nbiing ngudi khong sinh ra tai Anh da tang 1,7 trieu do su gia tang ve sd lugng ngudi nhap cu. Su gia tang nay cho thay ngudi lao dgng sinh ra ben ngoai Vuong qudc Anb chiem mgt phan ldn ttong tang trudng viec lam ndi chung trong nbiing nam gan day. Dii vay, ti le cd viec lam ciia cdng dan Anh cung tang dang ke trong qua ttinh phuc hdi tbi tm'dng lao ddng (tang 1,1 trieu trong giai doan 2011-2016).
Hon niia, ti Ie ngudi sinh ra d Anh cd viec lam d miic 75%, cao hon bat cir nam nao ke tir 1997.
1.2. Ti le that nghiep
Ti le that nghiep d Anh sau khi dat miic cao ki luc vao nam 2011 (giai doan khiing hoang) da giam dan theo timg nam. Tinh ttong giai doan 2011 - 2016, ti le ngudi that nghiep da giam 3,2%). Cdn tinh rieng tdi
thang 6/2016 (tmdc khi dien ra cudc bd phidu), cd 1,67 trieu ngudi thdt nghiep (it ban 148.000 so vdi mgt nam ti-udc do).
Trong khi dd, ti le ngudi khdng boat ddng kinh td (khdng Iam viec va khdng tim kiem hoac sin sang Iam viec) la 8,92 trieu ngudi (it bon 124.000 so vdi mdt nam tmdc dd).
Neu so sanh vdi thi trudng lao dgng ttong Eurozone (9,7%), ti le thdt nghiep d Anh thap hon rat nhieu nhung van cdn cao hon mdt sd nudc khac (sau Sec, Diic, Malta va Hungary).
Ti le that nghiep thap cua Anh ttong tbdi ki nay cd the xuat phat tir nhieu nguyen nhan. Thu nhdt, nudc Anh cd mdt tbi tmdng lao ddng linh boat. Viec tuyen diing va sa thai nhan vien de dang ban cac nudc chau Au khac; vi du nhu d Phap, ngudi chu lao ddng cd the phai can nhac nhieu ian trudc khi sa thai mdt nban vien lam viec kem. Thie hai, chinb sach tang dd tudi nghi huu khien cbo ti le lao dpng, dac biet la lao ddng nii tang len. Thir ba, do mire luong chi tra cho lao ddng d Anh thap bon so vdi nhiing nudc cbau Au khac ttong kbi chi phi sinh boat cao khien cho ngudi lao ddng phai lam them nbiing cdng viec khac de tang tbu nhap.
ONS, International immigration and the labour market. UK: 2016,
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcomniun ity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/arti cles/migrationandtlielabourmarketuk/20!6, tai ngay 12/5/2019.
<Jlu Iritifng. IcM idng,... 31
Hinh 2: Ti le thit nghiep »Anh (2000-2018)
Nguon:
kingdom-uk/
f .^ .^- .f .^ ,f ^ . / -^* .^ .if 4^- .{>-•" #" # ' .£.-••' ~?* # * f.-*
https://www.statista.com/smtistics/279S93/unemployment-rate-in-the-uniled-
1.3. Ndng sudt lao dong
Tuy ti le viec lam kha quan nhung tang trucmg nang suat lai kha thap. Neu so sanh vai nhiing nuac phat trien cung cap khac trong nhom Cac nuac cong nghiep phat trien (07), nang su4t binh quan theo gia nam 2016 ciia Anh thdp hon 15,1% so vai mii'c trung binh cua ca nhom. So sanh theo nang suat binh quan m6i lao dong, Anh thap hon 15,4% so vai nhimg thanh vien con lai ctia G7 vao nam 2016. Con s6 nay la 16,1% nam 2015. Nam 2016, chi s6 nang suat theo gia va theo dau nguai ciia Anh chi cao ban Nhat Ban va Canada nhimg thap han hau het cac d6i tac thuang mai a chau Au cung nhu My.
DiSu dang noi la Anh da timg la quoc gia CO nang sudt lao dong t6t nhSt chau Au.
Nam 1960, Anh c6 muc nang suat cao nhat chau Au, duac do bing t6ng san pham qu6c noi moi gio lam viec - tot hon Phap, Tay Dilc va Italia. Nang suit ciia Anh tang hen tuc trong 50 nam tiep theo, nhimg voi t6c do cham hon so voi cac nuoc chau Au co nen kinh \i phat triln khac - co nghia la Anh da mt lai phia sau Phap, Due va Italia trong nhiing nam 1960 dl tra thanh "con benh 6m ylu" ctia chiiu Au. Den giai doan 1980 - 2008, tang truang nang suit ciia Anh da co sir cai thien nha nhung cai each trong chinh sach kinh te ciia Thii tuang Theresa May va mot s6 thay dii khac xuat phat tir tu each thanh vien EU cua Anh. Tuy nhien, tang truang nang suat thap van la mot van de khiln Chinh phii Anh dau dau.
32 NGHIEN CiJfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
1.4. Tdng tru'&ng tien Iwffng Trong khi ti le viec lam tang len thi tang trudng tien luong lai d muc rat thap. Dii la mpt trong nhii'ng nen kinh te ldn nhat chau Au, miic chi tra tien cdng lao dgng d Anh thdp hon nhi6u qudc gia khac ttong khu vuc.
Tbu nhap thuc te d Anb da giam hon 10%o ttong giai doan 2007-2015. Ngugc lai, ttong ciing thdi gian, tien luong thuc te da tang d Ba Lan 2 3 % , d Diic tang 14%i va d Phap la 11%"'. Cd bai nguyen nhan khien tang trudng tien luong thap d Anh: thir nhat den lii' viec tang trudng tien luong khdng theo kip lam phat. Tir 2007-2015, Anb la nudc cd ti le lam phat cao nhat ttong sd nhiing nudc cd nen kinh te ldn tren the gidi, chii yeu la do gia nang lugng cao va su mat gia cua GBP.
Nguyen nhan thii hai xuat phat tir viec thieu tang trudng dau tu gay can trd nang suat, tii do gay ra tac dpng tieu cue den tien luong.
2. Thi trudng lao dong Anh sau Brexit
Thi tmdng lao ddng Anb sau thda thuan Brexit cd nhieu dau hieu lac quan va tao ra khdng it bat ngd. Ti le viec lam dang d mire cao nhat tii' trudc den nay, sd lugng vi tti tuyen dung da dat ky luc mdi va ti le that Michael Heruiigan, UK, Greece real wages dip 10%
in 8 years; Germany up 14%,
http://www.fmfacts.ie/Irish_finance_news/articleDetai l.php?UK-Greece-real-wages-dip-10-in-8-years- Germany-up-14-671, tai ngay 14/5/2019.
nghiep ciia phu nii ian dau tien da giam xuong dudi A%. Da timg cd nhidu ngudi lo ngai v6 nhQ'ng tac ddng tieu cue ciia Brexit tdi viec lam va tidn luong d Anh, nhung cho tdi nay, thuc td da chimg minh nhiing lo ngai nay la thira.
2.1. Tile viec ldm
Ti Ie viec Iam tai Anb ngay sau Brexit cd tuy cd su sut giam nhimg khdng gay ra nhiing lo ngai. Theo so lieu ciia Van phdng Thdng ke qudc gia Anh, ti le viec lam da giam xudng cdn 74,4% trong ba thang (thang 7^10/2016), tu mire cao ky luc 74,5%. Dd la ian giam dau tien ke tir thang 2 den thang 4 nam 2015, khi sd ngudi cd viec lam giam 6.000 ngudi xudng cdn 31,76 trieu ngudi.
Trong kbi dd, sd ngudi can trp cap that nghiep da tang len 2.400 ngudi ttong thang
11 len 809.000 ngudi.
Tuy nliien, sang den nam 2017, thi tmdng lao ddng dat dugc phuc hoi dang ke, vdi miic tang trudng viec lam manh me. Tuy nhien, hon mdt nira so viec lam tang la nhiing ngu'di lam viec ban thdi gian, dao ngugc su bung nd ciia viec iam toan tbdi gian ttong nam 2015 va bau bet trong nam nay. Den dau nam 2019, ti le viec lam d Anh dat miic cao ki luc (76,1%), tiep tuc da tang trudng tir nam 2017.
'^hi tMt^^ng Lao iL$ng,..^ 33
Hinh 3: Tile viec ldm & Anh giai doan tir ndm 2016 din ddu nam 2019
2017 Jul!017 JanSOIB M Z O I B
Nguon. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/employment-rate
Cd mdt dieu tat yeu da xay ra sau Brexit, dd la luc lugng lao ddng EU ciia Anb suy giam khi sd lugng lao ddng tir cac khu vuc khac tang vpt. LTdc tinh cd khoang 2,33 tneu cdng nhan tir EU27 Iam viec d Anb ttong khoang tu thang 10 den thang 12 nam 2017; nhung con sd nay da giam xudng cdn 2,27 trieu mdt nam sau dd. Su sut giam nay cbu yeu den tir cac qudc gia A8 - nbiing nudc gia nhap khdi nam 2004 va Ba Lan,
Cdng hda Sec. Dieu nay hoan toan trai ngugc vdi tinh binh lao ddng tir cac nudc ngoai EU d Anb. Nam 2017, sd lao ddng ngoai EU tang 130.000 ngudi tir 1,16 trieu len 1,29 trieu trong cimg ky, cao nhat ke tir nam 1997. Luc lupng lao dgng ngoai EU tang len bao gdm 277.000 cdng nban tir chau Phi, 593.000 tir chau A, 299.000 tir My va chau Dai Duong va 126.000 tir cac nudc chau Au khdng phai la thanh vien cua EU .
'' The Guardian, Britain's EU workforce in decline as numbers from elsewhere soar,
https'//www.theguardian. CO m/uk- news/2019/feb/19/britam-eu-workforcc-declme- numbers-eIsewhere-soar-brexit, tai ngay 12/5/2019.
34
NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225|.2019 Hinh 4: Tinh hinh lao dpng Anh, EU vd ngodi EU ndm 2017+ 3 7 2 , 0 0 0 (Total 2 9 . i n )
* 1 3 0 , 0 0 0 (:i.2sm)
=+441,000 (32.bm)
L S quoc ticb Aofa LO tir cac n
E U
Tdng s o v i e c lam
2.2. Ti li thdt nghiep
Sau thda thuan Brexit, cd the thay ti le that nghiep d Anh tang len dot ngdt. Trong 3 thang cudi nam 2017, sd lugng ngudi that nghiep tang them 46.000 ngudi len tdng sd la 1,47 trieu ngudi, qua dd danh dau mdc tang manh nhat ke tir dau nam 2013. Tuy nhien, bat chap miic tang tren, ti le that nghiep ciia Anh van chi cao bon 0,1% so vdi mii'c thdp nhat trong nhieu thap ky^.
Sang den nam 2018, mpi chuyen chuyen sang mdt hudng hoan toan khac. Theo sd lieu cua Van phdng Thdng ke Qudc gia, ti le that nghiep ttong 3 thang, tir thang 11/2018
den thang 1/2019, giam xudng cdn 3,9%i.
Day la lan dau tien ti le that nghiep cua Anh giam xudng dudi A% va la mire thap nhat ke tir nam 1975. Sd ngudi that nghiep trong khoang thdi gian tu thang 2/2018 den thang 1/2019 ciing giam 35.000 ngudi xudng cdn 1,34 trieu ngudi, thap hon 112.000 ngudi so vdi Cling ky trudc dd^.
That nghiep giam, nhu cau lao dpng manh me dang gia tang ap luc tuyen dung cho ngudi su dung lao ddng bdi vi su tang tmdng trong ngudn cung lao ddng khdng theo kip nhu cau lao ddng. Tmng binh, cac
Vii Hao, Ty le thdt nghiep Anh tdng ldn ddu tien he til- cugc trung cdu ddn y ve Brexit,
https://vietstock.vn/2018/02/ty-le-that-nghiep-anh- tang-lan-dau-tien-ke-tu-cuoc-trung-cau-dan-y-ve- brexit-775-584009.htra, tai ngay 12/5/2019.
^ Ngoc Ha, Ty le thdt nghiep cua Anh gidm xudng mite hy luc trong han 40 ndm,
https://wvAv.vietnamplus.vii/ty-le-that-nghiep-cua- anh-giam-xuong-muc-ky-luc-trong-hon-40- nam/558550.vnp
'^LU IfO&ng Lao^ &6ng.„
35
nha tuyin dung cbi nhan dugc 20 hd so img vien cho vi tri tuyen dung ddi hdi lao ddng tay nghd thap, so vdi 24 bd so iing vien vao mua he 2017 va 25 bd so iing vien vao miia thu nam 2015. Tuang tu, sd lugng iing vien co tay nghe tmng binh da giam xudng cdn 10 ho so img vien so vdi 19 hd so vao miia be 2017 va 15 bd so vao miia thu nam 2015.
Trong kbi dd, sd lugng hd so cbo vi tri tuyen dung ddi bdi tay nghe cao chi cd 6 ngu'di, so vdi 8 iing vien vao miia be 2017 va 8 iing vien vao miia tbu nam 2015. Ket qua la bdn trong so mudi (40%)) nha tuyen dung bao cao rdng ap luc tuyen dung da tang len trong td chii'c ciia hg do su ket hgp ciia hai yeu td it img vien hon va img vien it phii hgp bon^,
2.3 Ndng sudt lao dpng
Tuy tang tmdng viec lam tang nhung dang budn la tang tmdng nang suat Iai giam Slit. Day cung khdng cdn la mpt van de qua mdi me kbi tinh ttang giam tdc tang tmdng nang suat cua Anh da keo dai trong ban 20 nam qua. Theo bao Guardian, nang suat mdi gid lam viec d Anh da giam 0,5%> ttong ba thang dau nam 2018 va chi tang 0,2% mdi nam ke tit khi cudc khimg hoang tai chinh nam 2008^ Du bao trong nam 2019, nang suat lao dpng mdi gid cd the se chi tang 0,2%, thap ban so vdi My, Diic va tbam chi la Phap (dat nudc trai qua su sut giam Idn nhat ve tang tm'dng nang suat lao dpng ke tir cupc khung hoang tai chinh).
Hinh 5: Ndng sudt lao dpng &Anh so v&i mpt so quoc gia
burozone ^ ^ ^ H ^ ^ ^ ^ l
EU28 I ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ H I
^ 0.5
I H H ^•'°
HI ^-^
Nguon: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-15/u-k-productivity- projected-to-worsen-further-in-20I9
'' CIPD, ''Labour market outlook - Summer 2018 ". https://www.cipd.co.uk/Images/lmo-survey- summer20I8jcml8-45850.pdf
^ The Guardian, UK record employment increases likelihood of interest rate hike.
https://www.theguardian.coni/business/2018/may/15/uk-employnient-record-economic-growth-pay-interest-rate-
36 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6{225).2019
Ke tir sau cudc khiing hoang 2008, nen kinb te Anh cd tang tmdng chii yeu dua vao ep budc ngudi lao dgng lam them gid chii khdng cd nhii'ng chinh sach nham thuc day tang trudng nang suat. Hau qua la ngudi dan van phai chiu mire tang luong thap, bieu qua lao ddng di xudng va tac ddng den tam Iy cua cii tri, Mat khac, lau nay nudc Anb ludn phai ddi mat vdi tinh ttang qua nhieu lao ddng tay nghe thap. Bao cao ciia OECD nam 2016 cbo thay Anh la mdt trong nhiing nudc cd ti le cua lao ddng tte cd tay nghe thap Idn nhat trong sd cac nen kinb te tien tien. Trong khi dd, nhirng cdng ty dat tang tmdng nang suat cao nhat thi lai bi mat da. Lau nay, Anb vdn dua vao nbiing cdng ty dat nang suat cao ttong ITnb vuc cdng nghiep de thiic day cai thien qudc gia ve san lupng mdi gid lam viec. Va le dT nhien khi nang suat ciia cac cdng ty nay di xudng thi keo theo nang suat qudc gia di xudng. Ngoai ra, lire lupng lao ddng EU sau Brexit giam di ciing cd the dugc coi la mgt yeu td lam giam tang trudng nang suat. Phan ldn cac lao ddng EU lam
viec tai Anh ddu la nhung lao ddng trinh do cao va thudng dugc bidt dSn la cd nang suat lao ddng cao ban nhiing lao ddng gdc A va Phi. Thg nen viec giam siit ve sd lupng lao ddng tir EU ciing keo theo viec giam chat lugng va khdi lugng cdng viec dat dugc.
2.4. Tdng trirdng tien Iwffng
Sau nhieu nam tri tte, tien luong trang binh cudi cimg ciing tang d muc dang ne.
Tdng tbu nhap, bao gdm tien thudng, tang 3,5% trong ba thang tinh ttr thang 12/2018 den thang 2/2019. Thu nhap tmng binh hang tuan, khdng bao gdm tien thudng, ciing tang len 3,4%), mii'c tang ldn nhat ke tii' cudc khung hoang tai chinh 2008. Khi dupe dieu chinh theo lam phat, con sd dd giam xudng miic nhd hon (1,1%)^; dii vay day van la mdt con sd an tugng, ke tir ian tang cao nhat vao nam 2016. Tuy nhien, ngan bang qudc gia Anh du bao tang tmdng luang cd the se giam xudng 3% vao cudi nam 2019 do su bat dn ciia thda thuan Brexit va nen kmb te dang dan suy thoai.
The Guardian, UK record employment increases likelihood of interest rate hike.
https://www.thegiiardiancom/business/2018/may/15/
uk-employment-record-economic-growtli-pay- interest-rate-rise, tai ngay 12/5/2019.
'^hl iMi^ng leu^ Aeng... 37
drexiL vore Hinh 6: Tdng trwffng tien lirffng trung binh &Anh diiu chinh theo lam phdt Inflation adjusted UK average wage growth
4%
2 1 0— -
'07 "Ob 'OV) 10 '11 '\i '13
Ngudn: https://qz.com/1491295/uks-best-wage-growth.-in-a-decade-i.s-overshadowed-by- brexit-risks/
Tang tmdng tien luong phan anh ndi lo cua cac doanb nghiep. Nhu da ndi d tten, su tang trudng ttong ngudn cung lao ddng khdng theo kip nhu cau lao ddng ket hgp voi tinh trang thieu lao ddng cd ky nang khien cho cac doanh nghiep Anh dang phai canh ttanh nhau de tuydn dung lao ddng, dac biet la ttong mdt sd ITnh vuc ddi bdi ttinh dp cao.
Dieu nay trai ngugc vdi nam 2011 khi ti le that nghiep dat mire cao nliat sau khiing hoang (8,5%)), mire luong lao ddng mdi tuan rat thap bdi vi cac nha tuyen dung biet rang ho cd the giii nban vien cbi vdi miic luong it di hoac khdng tang luong'". Tuy nhien, tang
Adam Rasmi, The good news is British workers are getting raises. The bad news is Bexit,
https://qz.com/1491295/uks-best-wage-gTowth-in-a- decade-is-overshadowed-by-brexit-risks/, tai ngay
trudng tien luong dugc xem la cbi mang lai Igi ich cbo mdt nhdm ddi tupng. Mdt ngudi lao ddng tmng binh cd the nban thay rat it su khac biet so vdi thu nhap hang thang cua hg, mpt sd it ngu'di may man cd ky nang chuyen mdn dang thay mire tang luong ciia hp d miic bai con sd. Trong cac ITnh 'vuc nai thieu but nban vien cd trinh dp cao nhu nha khoa, bao biem va ky thuat cdng nghiep, cudc chien gianh nhan tai dang tien vao mot cudc chay dua toan dien. Su thieu but lao ddng dac thil trong cac ITnh vuc nay trong qua khii khien cac doanh nghiep pbu thudc vao viec thu hiit nban tai tir nudc ngoai. Nhung khi viec thu hiit nbiing ngudi lao dpng cd tay nghe tu EU ttd nen khd khan ban, cac nha
38 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N''6(225).2019
tuyen dung budc phai tang luong vdi tdc do chdng mat hon bao gid bat''
3 Mgt s6 thach thuc dat ra Bat chap nhii'ng be qua kinh te sau Brexit, thj tmdng lao ddng chau Au dang d ttong tbdi ki rue ro nhat. Ti Ie that nghiep d raiic thap ky luc gan 40 nam. Tang ttudng tbu nhap tmng binh ciing da tang len sau nhieu nam tri tre. Ket qua la tien luong thuc te dang tang trd lai. Ciing vdi biic tranh viec lam manh me, dieu nay da guip hd trg tang tmdng chi tieu ciia ngudi tieu dimg ttong nam 2018. Nhung trong bdi canh thi tmdng lao ddng dat dugc nhii'ng con sd dep nhu the nay, van cdn cd nhung thach thirc ma Chinh phil Anb dang phai ddi mat.
Thu nhdt, khi ti le ngudi lao dpng tang cao hon, cac cdng ty cd the de dang tim thay ngudi lap chd trdng, dan den viec sir dung luc lupng lao ddng bien tai nhieu hon va tang trudng viec lam cham hon. Mat khac, ti le that nghiep xudng qua thap khdng hoan toan la dieu tdt dep, dac biet la trong bdi canh nudc Anh cd qua nhieu lao dpng kT nang thap. Dieu nay chi phan anb mdt didu la cac doanh nghiep Anh hien nay dang qua thieu ngudn lao ddng nen hg budc phai tuyen cac lao ddng thieu kT nang sau dd tiep tuc
Employment levels highest since records began as wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, https://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2019-03- 19/employment-levels-highest-records-began-wage- growth-continues-to-outstrip-inflation
dao tao them. Viec tang lien tuc sd lugng cua Vl tti tuyen dung la bSng chiing ro rang ban vd cugc dau ttanh ngay cang gay gat cua cac cdng ty de tuyen dung nhan vien hp can, dieu nay dang lam suy ydu tang tmdng va tiem nang san xuat ciia Vuong qudc Anb.
Thil- hai, do boi canh Brexit cbua ro rang, cac lao dpng EU rdi khdi Anb de tim mdt noi an toan bon khien cho ngudn lao ddng cd kl nang tir EU sut giam. Thieu hut lao ddng nudc ngoai cd the bii lai bang viec dau tu them vao cdng nghe, may mdc de cai thien nang suat, dac biet la trong nhirng nganh nhu ndng nghiep bay y te. Tuy nhien, nhiing ddng gdp cua lao ddng EU tai Anh theo tbdi gian la khdng the phii nhan. Ciing vdi do, cac doanb nghiep thudng cd xu budng tuyen dung cac lao ddng tam thdi, Iam viec ttong mdt khoang thdi gian ngan ban.
Do do, cac chi sd ve viec lam tang len khdng hoan toan dang tin cay. Ve lau dai, tuong Iai ciia tbi tmdng lao dpng Anh cd the se gap nhieu khd khan.
Tim ba, "bai toan" nang suat ciia Anb.
Nang suat lao ddng giam tdc dang trd thanh mdi quan ngai ldn ddi vdi nen kinh te Anh.
Rd rang la lau nay nudc Anh van dugc biet tdi la nudc cd nang suat gan nliu thap nhat trong nbiing nudc phat trien. Nang suat lao ddng van la mdt van de nan giai ddi vdi Anh tir lau, tham chi cd nhieu y kien cho rang nang suat tri tie dat ra nhieu riii ro nghiem trpng bon cho tuang Iai cua dat nudc. Sau thda thuan Brexit, dii tang tmdng nang suat
<JLii tvti&ng Latf^ dmu/^... 39
CO tang len nhimg khdng dang kd. Di kem vdi dd la tang tmdng tien luong thap lam giam ddng lyc cua ngudi lao ddng.
Nhu vay, du thi ttudng lao ddng Anh khdng phai chiu nhung tac dgng tieu cue do Brexit dem lai nhung no van tdn tai nhung thach thiic ma Chinh phu Anh phai quan tam giai quyet.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. BCC, "Flexible labour market limiting impact of sluggish economy', https ://www.britishchambers. org.uk/news/20 19/01/bcc-fIexibIe-labour-market-limiting- impact-of-sluggish-economy
2. UKCES, "Working Futures 2014- 2024",
https://assets.pubHshing.service.gov.uk/gove mment/upIoads/system/uplaads/artacbment_
data/file/543301/WF_Headline_Presentation _v3.pdf
3. IPS, "The UK labour market: where do we stand now?", 4/2017.
4. ONS, "International immigration and the labour market, UK: 2016",
https://w7WW.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationan dcommunity/populationandmigration/intema tionalmigration/articles/migrationandthelabo urmarketuk/2016
5. MICHAEL HENNIGAN, "UK, Greece real wages dip 10% in 8 years;
Germany up 14%",
bttp://www.fmfacts.ie/Irisb__finance_news/ar ticIeDetail.php?UK-Greece-real-wages-dip-
10-in-8-years-Germany-up-14-671
6. Aamna Mobdin, "Britain's EU workforce in decline as numbers from elsewhere soar",
https ://www.theguardian.com/uk- news/2019/feb/19/britain-eu-workforce- decline-numbers-elsewbere-soar-brexit
7. Larry Elliott, ''UK record employment increases likelihood of interest rate hike".
https://www.tbeguardian.com/business/2018/
may/15/uk-employment-record-economic- growth-pay-interest-rate-rise
