Thuc tieh - Kinh nghiSm
^INhan djnh xu the mua mua, bao, lu nam 2015 va dU bao, canh bao thien tai
O HOANG DLTC C I / O N G
Trung tdm Dff bdo Khi tffdng thOy vin Trung ffdng
Nhan djnh xu the thdi tiet thuy vdn r1dm2015
Bao vi dp thip nhiet ddi:
Trong dilu kien EI Nino (do bdo d eudng dp yeu dd'n Irung binh nhung ed I h l keo dai den cudi ndm 2015), du bao ndm 2015 se d khoang 9 edn bdo, ATND hoat ddng trdn Biln Ddng (TBNN khoang 12 edn) vd khoing 3-4 con bdo, ATNO s§ Inh hudng tnie tiep den ddt lien nudc la {TBNN la 5-6 con).
Nhidt dd, ning ndng: TQ thdng 5 din thdng 10/2015: Nin nhiet dp trdn pham vi todn qud'c p h i bidn eao hdn TBNN IQ khoing 0,5-1,0*^0, ridng edc thdng 7, 8 vd 9/2015 nhiet dp d khu vuc Nam Trung Bd, Tdy Nguyen va Nam Bd dao dgng d mQc xdp xi TBNN. Nang ndng d Ble Bd va Trung Bd se xuit hidn nhieu hon nhung ft ed kha ndng keo ddi nhu nam 2014.
Lffdng mt/a, mua Idn: Mua mUa d Ble Bp ed kha ndng xiy ra phD hpp qUy ludt hdng nam, lupng mua ede thdng nQa ddu mDa moa (tQ thang 5-7/2015) d mOc xd'p xi TBNN, cdd Ihang cudi mua (IQ thdng 8-10/2015) d mQc thdp hon TBNN. Cdc dpi mua Idn d Bae Bd se tdp Irung IQ thdng 6 den thing 8/2015. Do Inh hudng cDa hidn tupng El Nino, mDa mua d Tdy Nguydn, Nam Bd vd Binh Thudn
ed kha ndng den mudn hOn so vdi TBNN (IQc trung tuan thdng 5).
LQpng mua d khu vye Nam Bp, Tdy Nguyen va Binh Thudn d e thdng 5, 6 va 10/2015 phd bid'n thd'p hon TBNN. Cae thdng 7, 8 vd 9/2015 ed lUpng mife dao dpng d mQc xd'p xi TBNN. MDa mife d Tay Nguyen, Nam Bp va Binh Thudn ed khi ndng se kel thUe sdm hon so vdi binh thQdng.
ThOy vdn Bic Bd: Lu lilu man xuat hien dDng thdi ky va Idn hon ndm 2014. Khu vyc Bae Bp ed kha ndng xay ra 2 - 3 dpt 10 ldn.
Oinh lu ndm se xud't hien theo quy ludt chung (khoing eudi thdng 7 ddn ddu thdng 8/2015) va tuong duong dinh lu ndm 2014: trdn d c sdng chfnh d thupng luu he Ihdng sdng Hdng, sdng Hoang Long va thupng luu sdng Thai Binh d mQc BD2-B03, ha luu sdng Hdng tai Hd Ndi dudi mQc BDI, ha luu sdng Thdi Binh tai Pha Lai tren mQc BDI. Trdn mpt sd sdng sudi nhd thudc mien nDi phfa Bae ed I h l xud't hien dinh lu vopl mQc 603. Lu quel, sat Id ddt cd kha ndng xudt hien nhilu hOn so vdi ndm 2014. Cac vDng ed nguy co eao ve Iu quel va sat Id dd't Id ede linh Lai Chdu, Dien Bien, Son La, Ldo Cai, Ydn Bai, Hd Giang, Tuyen Quang, Ble Can.
ThOy vdn Trung B6, Tay Nguydn: Trong nhung Ihdng ttep
theo eDa mua khd (tQ thang 5- 9/2015), lopng ddng ehly Iren cdc sdng d Trung Bd, Tdy Nguyen tidp tye thieu hut so vdi TBNN tU 30 - 60%, cd ndi hut hdn, rieng cac tinh d Nam Trung Bp thieu hiJt tU 60 - 95%. d ha luu nhieu sdng se xual hien myc node thdp nhat trong chuoi sd lidu quan trae eung thdi ky, hoac thap nhdl lich sQ, Tinh trang khd han, thieu node, xdm nhdp mdn sau vdo vDng cQa sdng ttep tue xay ra tren didn rdng d edc tinh Trung Bd vd keo ddi tdi thdng giQa 9/2015. Han hdn tai mdt sd huydn thudc d c ilnh Nam Trung Bd d t h i d mQc khde lidt d khu vye Tdy Nguyen da d moa chuyln mua, nhung lopng khdng ddng k l , vi vay linh trang khd han vln xay ra cue bd va keo ddi dd'n thdng 5/2015.
Mua lu ndm 2015 trdn d c sdng d khu vyc Trung Bd va Tdy Nguyen cd kha ndng xual hidn mupn hon so vdi TBNN. Dinh IQ ndm 2015 tren hau hit eac sdng deu eao hon dinh lu ndm 2014 va ed kha ndng nhO sau: Cde sdng d Bic Trung Bd d mQc BDI - BD2 vd xap xl TBNN, cde sdng tU Quing Binh de'n Binh Thuan vd khu vye Tay Nguyen d mQc BD2 - BD3, cd ndi cao hdn B03 va d mQc TBNN. Thdi gian xuat hien dinh lu cao nhat ndm Irdn cac gdng chfnh d Thanh Hda, Binh 3 4 TdMQuydn vd Mdi trudng 1 KH-Thing 6/2015
Thudn vdo Ihdng 8 va 9/2015, tren cdc sdng IQ Nghd An den Quang Binh vd Tdy Nguyen vdo thdng 9 va 10/2015. tt^n cae sdng IQ Quang Tri den Ninh Thudn vao thang 10 va 11/2015.
Lu ldn, lu quel, sal Id dal tren mpi sd sdng sudi nhd vung nut cac tinh Trung Bd vd Tdy Nguyen cd khi nang xual hien nhieu hon so vdi ndm 2014.
ThOy vin Nam Bd: Mye node ha lou sdng Ci!fu Long va sdng Ddng Nai tiep lue chju anh hudng manh eDa thDy tridu. Mue nude eao nhat thdng tai Tan Chdu va Chdu Ode d mQc cao hon TBNN cDng ky tQ 0,1 - 0,2 m. Tinh hinh xam nhdp mdn tidp lue lan sdu d vDng cife sdng, npi dong d c sdng Nam Bd vd dp mdn 4g/l cd t h i xam nhap sdu khoang 40 - 60 km, d thdi ky sdu tdi 70 km va keo dai den thdng 5/2015. Dinh lu eao nhdl ndm 2015 tren sdng Tien tai Tan Chdu va sdng Hdu tai Chdu Dde d khi ndng d mQc BD2, thd'p hon TBNN va c6 kha ndng xual hidn vdo dau thang 10/2015.
Khi tuang thdy van biin: Thdi till tren biln, vDng ven bd ed kha ndng dien bien phQc tap hon so vdi ndm 2014. Bdo do bp vdo vDng ven bd van d nguy cd gay ngdp lut vd xdi Id bd biln. Ngodi ra, d c dpi gid mDa manh kel hpp vdi trieu cudng, sdng ldn se liep tuc Id nguy eo gdy ngdp lut tai d e khu vtic trijng ven bd vd cQa sdng, ddc biet Id vdo thdi ky eudi ndm 2015.
Nhiem vu trong tam trong dy bdo, c i n h bao thien tai ndm 2015
Chi tidu chat lopng dy bdo KTTV eu I h l ndm 2015 dupc dat ra nhu sau: Khi lUpng han ngan dat IQ 81% trd ldn; khf tupng han
vQa dal tQ 73% Ird len; thuy vdn han ngin dat IQ 80% trd len; thuy vdn han vQa dat IQ 75% trd len;
khf lopng han ddi (thdng) dat tQ 65% Ird ldn; thuy vdn han ddi (thdng) dat IQ65% trd ldn. Nganh KTTV Iheo ddi ehdi che tinh hinh thdi ttel, Ihuy vdn Iren pham vi ca node; eanh bao, dy bao kip thdi edc hidn lopng thdi tidt, thuy vdn nguy hilm nhu bao, ATNO, mua Idn, lu Idn, 10 quet.. phuc vu hieu qui PCTT; dy bao KTTV blln.
Tiep luc thyc hien cu I h l hda ban tin dy bdo thdl till nguy hilm ddn IQng dja phupng lai d c Ddi KTTV khu vyc, Ddi KTTV tinh. TQng bude d i tiln ndi dung vd hinh thife cde ban ttn dy bdo KTTV, nhat Id cdc ban tin dy bdo bao, ATND, lu nham dap ifng nhu d u ngdy d n g cao cDa nhdn ddn, d n g ddng; tdng eudng du bao dilm cho edc khu vye Irpng dilm d nguy cd xuat hien Ihien tai KTTV. Thodng xuydn id chQc hdi thao tryc tuyen, mdi eac chuydn gia tham gia Ihao Iuan khi ed tinh hudng thdi till nguy hilm. Hodn thdnh phQOng dn do bdo phye vu ifng phd vdi sieu bao, bao manh tren ede khu vyc Ble Bd, Tmng Bd vd Nam Bp. Tdng cudng kilm tra, gidm sat edng tdc thyc hien d c Quy trinh, Quy djnh, Quy che cDa Chi'nh phD, cDa Bd TN&MT, Tmng ldm KTTV qude gia ban hdnh v l edng lac dy bdo, bao gdm d cae quy djnh ve d p dd rDi ro thien tai, ve dy bdo, d n h bao vd truyin ttn Ihien lai, ve quy trinh vdn hdnh lien hd chQa. Hodn thdnh cdng lae duy tu, bao dudng, sQa chQa cdng trinh do dae va try sd Iam vide, cdc cdng trinh phu edn cDa cac tram KTTV, eae Ddi KTTV Ilnh, chuin bj dD cac Ihiel bj, vdi lu thiet yeu de dam bao an
lodn trong mDa mua, bao, Iu. Cac tram KTTV hoan thdnh viec xay dyng vd hodn thien phuong an quan trae khi xiy ra tinh hudng d bdo, ATND, mOa Idn, Iu Idn. Tdng cudng edng lde thdng tin ve cae ban tin dy bao KTTV, ddc bidl khi ed bdo, ATND, mOa, ID den cac cap lanh dao d l phue vu cdng lae chi dao phdng chdng bdo, IQ, ddn cac CO quan thdng tin bdo ehf 6i thdng bdo eho nhan dan biet chD dpng phdng, tranh. T l chQe cde dodn cdng tde Idm nhidm vu kilm tra, ddn ddc, hd trp ky thuat cho edc Odi KTTV khu vyc, eae Dai KTTV linh khi d bao, ATND. Iu nguy hilm, phQc lap. Td chife edc bd phdn dy bdo ttln phQOng tai khu voc trpng dilm khi cd bao, IG. Bao dam sy hoat dpng dn i^nh cDa he thdng mdy chD, edc he Ihdng thdng tin chuydn ngdnh KTTV dim bao Iidn lae thdng sudt trong mpi tinh hudng.
Thu thap, xQ ly, lou IrQ sd iieu KTTV day 6Ci, chfnh xde phuc vu dy bdo KTTV. Duy Iri hoai ddng dn dinh, hieu qua cDa hd thdng mang. Website cDa trung uong vd dja phUdng d l bio dim truyen tin dy bdo KTTV, dac biet la ede bin ttn dy bdo, canh bdo cdc hien lupng Ihdi tilt, thDy vdn, hai vdn nguy hilm din ngUdi sQ dung dDng quy djnh. Oly manh cdng lde luygn tmyln Ihdng qua eac co quan bao ehf, cdc hdi nghj, hdi thao ve cdc hien tupng KTTV, nhat Id v l cde hien lupng KTTV nguy hilm, vd edeh sQ dung cae ban tin dy bdo KTTV dDng vd hidu qua. Phan ddu moi cdn bd, vien ChQc trong Trung ldm KTTV qudc gia, nhd't Id eac quan trie vidn, ede do bdo vidn deu phli trd thdnh edc tuyen Iruyen vidn gidi v l KTTV.B
Tdi nguydn vd Mdi trudng | Kyi-Thing 6/2015 3 5
