N G H I E N CQU TRAO BOI {Sd-05(19o£20l9^
PHAN TiCH QUYET DjNH VE Ll/A CHON CHAN NUOI LOIN AN TOAN CUA CAC HO: NGHIEN CDU ci HUYEN THANH MIEN, HAI DI/aNG
Trin Van Quan* - TS. To Thd Nguyen*
Chdn nuoi htru cvid xu the tat yeu trong boi cdnh hi^n nay. Nghidn cu'u ndy ddng hdm Probit de: (i) phan tich nhwng wng xw cua ho chan nuoi doi vdi lira chgn sdn xuat vd tieu thp Ig-n thjt an todn vd (ii) phdn tich cdc yeu to anh hw&ng den sp' Ip'a chgn cda h^ dot v&i chdn nudi /pn thjt an todn & huydn Thanh Mien, Hdi Dwovtg.
Nghl&n cwu ndy chl ra rang ton tai 2 hinh th&c chdn nu6i gom: chdn nudi theo hw&ng an todn vd chan nuoi thw&ng. Nghidn cwu ndy cung chi ra rang nhOng yeu to nhw thu nhdP tCr chdn nudi, iao dgng, hgc van, h^ tang giao thong vd sy tham gia t$p hudn khuyen nong cua h^ Id c6 y nghia thong ke vd c6 tdc dong tot den viec Ip-a chgn chBn nudi Ign an todn cua h^.
Mdc du trong nghidn cd'u ndy chdng tdi dd dwa cdc yiu to nhw: di^n tich chuong tr^i, kinh nghidm cua chu hg, gidi tinh vd djch vp tuy nhien khdng thay c6 sy dnh hw&ng cd y nghia thong k§ den vi^c lu'a chgn hinh thwc chdn nudi Ign thjt an todn cua cdc hp.
• TCf khda: chdn nuoi an todn, It^n thit, hdm probit.
/ \ 1. Dat van d^
Sdn xuat san pham hCm ea la xu the tit yeu trong bdi canh hien nay, trong dd co san phdm chan nudi.
Theo Hiep hpi Ndng nghiep htixi ea Viet Nam, thyc pham tir ndng nghiep dang gay nhidu he luy tdi sue khde con ngudi, gay ra nhidu benh nguy hiem, do d6 ma cau ve san phdm htm c a cd xu hudng tang. Trong ITnh vuc trdng trgt, Viet Nam da c6 nhieu dja phuang tridn khai san xuit ndng nghiep theo hudng huu co, Nhidu md hinh hgp tac xa san xudt ndng nghiep htm co ra ddi. Ben canh dd, trong ITnh vuc chan nudi, dd dap ung xu hudng tidu diing san phim hun ca, nhiSu cdng ty, hgp tac xa dang diu tu xay dung md hinh theo chudi cung ung thjt Ign huu co khep kin tir khdu chpn gidng cho tdi gidt md, che bidn tao ra nhirng san pham an toan, rd ngudn goc.
Theo Tdng cue Tbdng kd (2017), tdng dan lan thjt cua Viet Nam la khoang 30 trieu con duac phan bd rdng khdp, Ddng bdng sdng Hdng chiem 26,2% long dan lon, Trung du va midn nui phia Bac chiem 23,2%, Ddng bing sdng Cim Long chiem khodng 13,9% va Viing Tay Nguyen chidm 6,^8%. Chan nudi Ign phat trien manh me cung da gay ra nhtmg he luy do la: linh trang d nhidm mdi trudng, ngudi nudi sir dyng eac chit cam, cung Ign thit tang vd gid bien ddng khien cho cd ngudi chdn nudi va tieu dimg phai ddi mat vdi nhidu kho khan Organic farming is an inevitable trend in the
current context. This study uses Probit model to (i) analyze household behaviors for safe pork production and consumption, and (ii) analyze factors affecting household choices for safe breeding In Thanh Mien, Hai Duong.
This study indicates that there are two forms of animal husbandry including traditional and safe livestock production. This study also shows that factors such as income from raising livestock, labor, education, transport infrastnjcture and participation in extension training of households are statistically significant and have positive impacts on selection of safe pig breeding from households
Although, in this study, we included factors such as bam area, experience of household head, gender and sen/ice, but there were not statistically significant on selection of safe pig farming from households
• Keyvi^ords: safe breeding, pork, probit model.
Ngay nhan bdi: 12/4/2019 Ngay chuySn phdn bidn: 15/4/2019 Ngay nh$n phdn bi$n. 22/4/2019 Ngdy chap nh$n ddng: 25/4/2019
* Hpc vien Nong nghiep Viet Nam
: ^ Tap chi nghien ctfu Tai chinh ke toan
(So 05 (190)-2019)
NGHIEN CCrU TRAO 001 Do do, de chan nuoi phat trien dn djnh, ben vtrng
doi hdi ngudi ehan nudi can phai thay ddi tu duy, nhan thirc, phat tridn cdng nghe hudng tdi nhung san pham sach va an loan. Nghien cim ciia chiing tdi vdi mong mudn lam sang td nhCrng ydu td tac dpng ddn hanh vi lira chpn hudng chan nudi an toan ciia cac hd.
Nghien cuu nay dugc thyc hien trdn dia bdn huyen Thanh Mien, Hai^ Duong va se diing cdc phu'Ong phap thich hgpde: (i) phan tich nhung ung xir ciia hd chan nudi ddi vdi lua chpn san xuat va lieu thu Ign thjt an toan, (ii) phan tich cde ydu td anh hudng den sy lya chpn eiia hd ddi vdi ehan nudi Ign thjt an toan.
2. Khung Iy thuyet va phuong phap nghien
CUT!
2.1. Khung ly thuyet vd tong quan tdi li^u Thuat ngir thuc pham an loan, san pham an loan da ngay cang phd bien hon, Hien nay, trdn thd gidi va d Viet Nam co hai quan nidm vd ndng nghiep sach dd la: Ndng nghiep sach tuyet ddi va ndng nghiep sach tucmg ddi. Ndng nghidp sach tuyet ddi con gpi la ndng nghidp htiru co, ndng nghiep sinh hpc, thidn ve bien phdp hiru co va sinh hpc, canh tac, chan tha ty nhien, khdng diing cac loai phan bdn, thudc bao vd thuc vdt trong trdng trpt va khdng diing chdt kich thich, tao nac,.., trong chan nudi va chap nhdn nang suat khdng cao ^e ddi lay san pham hoan loan sach. Hinh thuc san xuat nay xuat hien d nhiing nudc phat tridn, co ky thudt phat trien, ngudi tieu diing co kha nang chap nhan gia san pham cao, hinh thirc nay phii hgp vdi san xuat d quy md nho.
Ndng nghidp sach tuong ddi la dp dung cac bidn phap tham canh hien dai, ap dung cdng nghd sinh hpc, ket hgp cdc bien phap hiru ca, sinh hgc vd cac bien phap khac nhung vdi cdng nghe dam bao han che tac ddng tieu cyc ciia san xuat den mdi irudng, cac san pham ndng nghiep khdng ed hoac ham lugng chat hda hgc d mirc dp cho phep, dam bao gia ihanh hgp ly.
^ 0 Viet Nam, chan nudi an loan dugc khang djnh bdng nhidu tieu chi, vi du nhu VietGAP'. VietGAP chan nudi la nhtrng nguydn tic, trinh tu, thii luc huong dan td chirc, cd nhan san xuit dp dung trong chan nudi nham dam bao vat nudi dugc nudi dudng de dat dugc eac yeu cau vd chat lugng, an todn ve
' VietGAP (Vietnamese Good Animal Husbandry Practices) chan nuoi dupc ban hanh m&i nhat tgi Quyet dinh $64653/
QD-BNN-CN ngay 10 thdng 11 ndm 2015.
sinh thyc pham, siic khoe ngudi sdn xuit va ngudi tieu diing, bao ve mdi trudng va truy xuit ngudn gdc san pham.
Gan day nhiing nghien eiiu vd cac ydu to dnh hudng tdi hanh vi ciia ngudi tieu diing thyc phdm an loan d Viet Nam dugc thuc hien bdi Ngd Thj Thudn, 2003; Nguydn Van Thuan va Vo Thanh Danh, 2011 va Vo Minh Sang, 2016. Tuy nhien nhirng nghien cim vd hanh vi ciia ngudi san xuit thyc pham an loan la kha han chd, Nghien ciiu ciia Td The Nguyen ya Giang Hoang Hieu (2016) chi ra rang eac yeu td dnh hudng ddn ung xir vdi san xuat rau an toan la trinh dp van hda ciia chii hd, khoa hpc ky thuat, thdng tin thj trudng va von.
De cd can cir dii manh xem xet cac yeu td dnh hudng ddn quyet djnh chan nudi Ign thjt theo hudng an loan ciia hp hay ndi each khde chinh la xem xet viec su dyng eac bien trong md hinh. Chiing tdi tham khao mot sd nghidn cuu da xuit ban cd chat lugng. Trudc hel, ket qud nghien ciiu ciia Adesina (1996) ehi ra rang cac hd co dien tich dat ldn cd nhidu khd nang ap dyng nhtmg tidn bd ky thuat ban so vdi cdc hd co didn tich dat nho. Bdn canh d6, trong mgt sd nghidn cim (Kebede et al,, 1990;
Sbiferaw and Holden, 1998), yeu to lao ddng cd anh hudng ca tich cyc va tidu cue den quyet djnh de sdn xuat hthi co ciia hd. Day la can cir de dua yeu td tao ddng vao trong md hinh nghien cuu ciia chung tdi.
Ngoai ra, lap luan ciia mdt sd tdc gia cho rang phu nii- thudng bj phan biet ddi xir trong vide tidp can vdi cac ddu vao bdn ngodi (Haugen and Brandth, 1994). Day chinh la can cir de xem xet dua bien gidi linh vao nghien ciiu ciia chiing tdi.
Bdn canh dd, Ali and Abdulai (2010) cho biet ring nhtrng hd sdn xuat it dugc tham gia hoat ddng khuyen ndng cd xdc suit dp dung sdn xuat hiJu co la thap hon so vdi nhu-ng hd tham gia. Dua vao nghien ciru nay, chiing tdi dua bien Khuyen ndng vao md hinh dd udc lupng. Vd sau ciing, chung tdi dua cac bidn nhu Giao due, Kinh nghiem ciia chil hd bdi can cir la dua tren mot sd nghidn ciru khac nhu Strauss et al (1991); Basnayake and Gunaratne (2002), Huynh va cdng su (2008), Raphael (2008), Koesling el al. (2008) va Huynh and Yabe (2011).
2.2. Phuffng phdp vd dirli^u nghien cuu 2.2.1. Mo hinh probit
Trong nghien cuu ndy, chung ldi iing dung md hinh tong quat dugc gidi thieu bdi Amemiya
Tap chi nghien ctfu Tai chinh ke toan
NGHIEN CJU TRAO DOI
(sgos (ipohjo^
(1981) va Maddala (1991). Mo hinh xac suat tuyen linh CO the xac dinh nhu sau:
y, = (k, + E, (1) Trong do: y dugc xdc djnh la bang 1 neu hg chan nudi thir / ra quyet djnh lya chpn chan nudi Ign thjt an loan va bang 0 neu hd chan nudi thir / ra quydt dinh lua chpn chan nudi thudng, tidp ddn X la cae yeu Id (bidn), / ^ 1,. ,n; ^ la he sd eua ede bien va cudi ciing E la sai sd ngau nhien. Do vay, xac suat (Pr) cua hp chan nudi / la ngdu nhidn dugc rut ra ttr tdng the va cd the viet nhu sau:
Pr{y,^Q\x,)- ^My) (2)
] + sxp{y,) Khi dd, ham probit eo the vidt la:
Pr{y,*Q\x,)-jyU)di (3) vdi (p (.) la ham mat dp tidu chuan.
2.2.2. Quy mo vd cdch chon mdu dieu tra Sd lugng mau dieu tra trong nghien ciru ciia chitng tdi duge xac dinh dya trdn cdng thirc:
Trong do: n Id cd mau can khdo sat, A'' la Idng the va m dugc xac djnh la 385, day chinh la hdng sd ma Glenn D. Israel (1992) da chimg minh vdi gia djnh mii'c dp tin cay Id 95%. U'ng dung cdng thii'c trdn, vdi long sd 139 hd chan nudi Ign thjt Irdn dja ban nghien ciru (Phdng Ndng nghiep vd PTNT Thanh Mien, 2017) chiing tdi xac djnh dugc dung lugng mdu can khao sat la 98 hp chan nudi Ign thjt bing phuong phdp chpn mau ngdu nhien
Bang 1. Thong ke mo ta cua cac bien su' dung trong mo hinh (n=9S)
Lua chpn htnh Ihiic nu6i (Choice) Thu nhap tii chSn nuoi lan Ihil (trifiu dong) Dien lich chuong irai {m'j So laodpng irong hg (lao dong) Tnnh do hpc van ciia chil hg {nSm) Kinh nghiem ciia chii hS (nam) Gim tinh cua chu hp Tham gta tap huan khuyen nong Ha tang giao thong Dich vu (dien, nuiic, giong, )
0.5 350,1 96,1 4,6 10,1 15.0 0.8 0,8 0.6 0,8
0.3 302.1 60,6 1,9 3,0 6,7 0,3 0,2 0.3 0,4
0 150,3 60,0 2 8 8 0 0 0 0
1 676,1 220.2 6 12 23 1 1 1 1 I^guoii Tong hop JO //?u ^leit
til cac xa Doan KSt, Thanh Giang va Tir Circmg cua huyen Thanh Mien.
2.2.3, Tong hap dir lieu diiu tra
Mot ban torn tAt cac dij lieu va cac bien sir dung dugfc th^ hien trong Bang 1. Bien phu thupc (Choice) la str lira chon hinh thirc chan nuoi cua cac hp. Bien nay bang I nSu ho chan nuoi theo huong an toan (VietGAP, khong sir dung thirc an chan nuoi cong nghiep, v.v...) va b^ng 0 nSu la ho chan nuoi thirong (khong theo huong an toan), Bien Thu nhap tir chan nuoi Ion thit la dupc tinh chung cho ca 2 ioai hinh thirc chan nuoi, thu nhap binh quan cua mpt hp la khoang 350 trieu dong/
nam. Bien Dien tich la tong dien tich chan nuoi cua ho dupc tinh bang met vuong. Dien tich binh quan chuong trai moi hp la khoang 96 m l So trung binh Lao dong ciia moi hp chan nuoi la 4,6, vcri dp lech chuan la 1,9. Bien Hpc van la so nam di hpc ciia chil hp (dira tren thang do: tir lap I den lop 12}. Trinh dp hpc van trung binh tir mlu so lieu dieu tra ciia chiing toi la 10,1 nam, BiSn Kinh nghiem cung dupc chiing tpi sir dung trong nghien ciru nay, so nam kinh nghiem chan nuoi binh quan ciia chu hp la khoang 15 nam.
Ngoai ra, chiing toi sir dung mpt so blSn gia tuong img vol dac diem hp san xuSt nhu gioi tinh, tham gia khuySn nong, ha tjng giao thong va ha tang djch vu. BiSn Gioi tinh la mpt biin gia va bang 1 neu chii hp la nam va bjnjg 0 niu chu hp la nii. BiSn Khuyen nong dira dSn nhiing thpng tin CO hay khpng cac hp da dirpc tham cac lop tap huan ve ky thuat cham soc, chan nuoi Ipn thjt, ....
BiSn Ha tang giao thong cho biit nhiing thong tin la ngiroi chan nuoi danh gia ve mure do ha tSng giao thong d dja phuong, bang I khi danh gia ha tang giao thong tot (xe 6 to tai tren 3 tin di lai thuan lpi din tan cac co so chan nupi) va bang 0 khi danh gia la khong tit. Biin Dich VM (dien, nuoc, giing,...) cho biit nhiing thong tin nguoi chan nuoi danh gia vi mirc a? tien fch ve cac djch vu o dia phucmg, bang 1 kill danh gia ha tjng dich vu tit va bang 0 khi danh gia la khong tit.
3- Kit qua nghien cuu va thao luan 3.1. ir„g xu ciia cdc ho ddi v&i cdc hoat ating Chan nuoi Ifn Ihil
Chiing toi thu dupc 98 hp chan nuoi bang P i r - ^ g p a p Phong van nglu nhiSn, trong do CO 21 hp Chan nuoi theo huong an toan va 77 hp Chan nuoi thuong. Bang I c h o biTt
&> Tap chi nghien cQu Tai chinh k.e toan
fSo 05 (190)-2019)
NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI ro hem mpt so chi tieu phan anh hoat dong ciia cac
ho chan nuoi. So Ilia binh quan gitra 2 nhom hp c6 sir khac biet co y nghTa thong ke dira tren 1 kiem dinh ;, va do thai gian nuoi cua Ign thjt an toan la dai hon so vai nuoi thuang. Han nira chi tieu trpng lucmg xu§t chuong trung binh cua 2 nhom chan nuoi la CO su khac biet co y nghTa thong ke nhung khong dang ke, Tuy nhien, sir khac biet ve gia ban lon thit la khong dang ke giua 2 nhom chan nuoi.
Bang I. Ket qua tua ho^l d^ng chan nudi l^'n thjt ciia cdc hp dieu Ira S '
Troiii; lirong xual chui Gu ban l^n [llll lu>i
(Ihan&'lua) 3,9
(lOOOd/kB) 39,5 16,3
ji vai ifujcyngktii Ihong ke lu 10, 5 vi, 1%
S'j^uoii Toiiji Imp so tliu dieu ira (2017)
Ket qua a Bang 3 cho biet viec su dung nguon thuc an chan nuoi ciia cac hg. Doi vai nhom hg chan nuoi theo hucmg an toan, ket qua tir du lieu cho biet co 89,8% cac hp chan nuoi sir dung thirc an gia sue ket hgp va 10,2% hg sir dung thtrc an mua hoan toan. Trong khi do, doi vai nhom hg chan nuoi thuang, thi 96,3% cac hg sir dung thuc an cong nghiep (mua tir cac nha may che bien thuc an gia sue) va chi co 3,7% so hg sir dung thuc an tu che bien, phoi trgn theo cong thirc rieng cua ho.
img xir ciia hg chan nuoi a dja ban nghien ciru co su khac biet doi vai timg tac nhan dupc th6 hien a Bang 4,
Ty le tieu thu Ign thjt an toan va Ign thit thuang qua ngucri ban buon la 69,1% va 84,4%, tucmg ung. Ty le tieu thu Ign thjt an toan va lan thit thuang true ti6p vai nguai tieu diing chiem 15,6% va 2,3%, tuong irng. s6 iugng san phSm con lai, nguai chan nuoi tieu thu qua nguai let mo (16,3% d6i vai Ipn thjt an toan va 13,3% doi vai Ign thit thuang), Dac biet la, cac cau hoi ma rpng va chuyen sau trong nghien cuu ciia chiing toi chi ra rang, cac tac nhan tieu thu (ban buon) khong quan tam den Ign thit an toan va thucmg nen gia mua doi vcri cac loai Ign thit an toan va thuang khong CO sir khac nhau. Ty le 1cm thjt an toan ban cho nguai tieu diing cao han Ign thucmg cho thay su quan tam ciia nguai tieu diing den thirc pham an toan.
Bang 4. U n g \ir cua ngiroi c h i n nuoi viri l^ra chgn cac hinh thu-c tieu th*^ (%)
Ty 1$ lieu tliti Ty \% lieu Ibg Iq-nlii)! un loan (n=2l) l^n lh|l tliirang(n=T7) I cho nguoi ban buon
icho nguoi i;ict mo icho nguoi iKix dun^
Bang 3. Nguon ihirc an sir d y n g cho c h i n nuoi \<fn ciia cat h^ dieu tra (Vn)
Mua hoan loan (cam dam ciic|
Tit die bien. plioi tron, ihuc an i
3.2. Ung xd' cda cdc ho chdn nuoi ttong tieu thu sdn phdm Iffn thit
Nghien cun ciia chiing toi thay rang, hp chan nuoi 6 day chua co su da dang lien ket irong tieu thu. Cac tac nhan chi'nh giiip tieu thu lon thit ciia hp la ngudi thu gom/giet mo, nguai ban buon va nguai tieu diing. Cac ho chan nuoi hgp tac vai cac tac nhan do dua tren nhung moi quan he quen biet, lang xom. So iieu dieu tra ciia chiing toi cho thay,
N^iwn Timjc hap t.i hiu Mu Ira (20171
3.3. Phdn tich cdc yeu to dnh hu&ng den quyet djnh cua hp nong dan trong chdn nudi Iffn thjt
Chiing toi uoc lugng kha nang va cac hieu ung bien trung binh ve su lua chgn hinh thirc chan - nuoi ciia hp vai mo hinh probit khong thuan nhat.
' Chiing toi dua ra chi don thuan la ket qua ciia mo
" hinh probit co tinh khong thuan nhat khong quan sat dugc, the hien trong Bang 5.
He s6 hoi quy probit chi cho phep chiing toi giai thich rang cac bien tham gia trong mo hinh CO tac dpng xu huong d8n xac suat lua chpn hinh thuc chan nuoi Ign an toan hay chan nuoi thuong ciia hg, bai vay chung toi can tinh toan den hieu img bien ciia cac bien giai thich trong rno hinhl Tinh toan hieu ung bien se cho phep biet va giai thich dugc phan tram thay doi ciia he so cac bien ' Hiiu u'ng bien, y^dirqrc tinh toan di/a tren cong th&c sau:
Tap chl nghien cufu Tai chinh ke toan
NGHIEN ClfU TRAO DOI ( SQ-QS (19Oh]0^
Itang 5. Kel qua iru'c Itci/ng cho mo hinh prubit khong Ihuan nhat va hi^u ung bien
"^
II(sS I I I Uilg
&
c h u S n1 liu nhap l u chan nuoi l o n I h i l D i c n l i L h v l n i o o ^ t r a i So Iao d o n i ; i r o i i j : ho T r i n h do hyc v j n cua chu ho K n i h i i i ! l i i i ; m c i j a c h u hp n i u i l i n h CIM chu ho 1 l i a m gia lap huan khuyen iiong 1 la uiiiy giao i h o n i ;
iii'rci^?"'""" ^""'^''
uhij,,. •r\yi..„y.^>,!a, - Q j i r 0 0 1 0 O i l s 0 0 5 5 '
0 040 0 321 0 3 9 3 "
0 0 0 1 "
0 921 2 061
„.gki-.,.,^li) 0 030 0 093 0 139 0 0 1 1 0 028 0 0 6 6 0 268 0 20S 0 223 0 829
%.S%
-0 2 0 1 ' 0 0 1 1 0 103 0 035 0 0 1 0 0 l i t 0 2 6 0 "
0 031 0 332
.l%,„.„g ( O l I O l
<0 080) ( 0 142) ( 0 0 1 6 1 (0 0171 (0 0631 (0 2 7 l | (0 lu'u (0 232)
m , - ™ ^ ^ .
han b(i ve vi^c : lifn thjt an
f h i n l o f i ' 0
(-)
Ton;;
1 35 13 48
0 la 32 50
T O O K 53 45 98
phu thuoc khi thay cua cac bien phan loai (0, !) va do CO dan ciia trung binh ciia cac bien lien tuc.
Viec uac lugng mo hinh probit khong thuan nhat cho thay rang nhung hg co thu nhap cao tir chan nuoi Ign se it co quan lam hem den chan nuoi an toan. Han nira, yeu to nhu: nhieu lao dpng, trinh do hpc van, dugc tham gia cac lap tap huan khuyen nong, ha tang giao thong va cac dich vu co tac dgng tich cue den xac suat lua chgn hinh thirc chan nuoi an toan.
Cu the ket qua a Bang 5 chi ra rang moi mpt don vj tang them cua thu nhap tir chan nuoi la co khoang 2% xac suat lang them lua chgn chan nuoi Ign thil thuang eiia cac hg. Tuy nhien, nhung hg nao co nhieu
lao dgng han se co kha nang chan nuoi Ign an loan hon. vai khoang 1%, yeu i6 tac dpng_ nay la co y nghTa thong ke a mirc 10%. Tiep do, yeu to hpc van cung CO tac dpng lich cue khoang 0,3% cho viec lua chgn hinh thii'c chan nuoi lan an loan. Kel qua nay la tuang thich vai mpt so nghien ciru (Kebede etal., 1990; Strauss etal., 1991 va Langyintuo and Mungoma, 2008).
Sau ciing la 2 yeu to ha tang giao thong va su tham gia tap huan khuyen nong ciia hg la co y nghTa thong ke va c6 khoang 2,6% kha nang de hp chan nuoi Ign thit an loan so vai hg nong dan khong tham gia lap huan khuyen nong. Va giao thong thuan lgi cung co tac dpng den viee lira chpn chan nuoi Ign an toan ciia hg, Chiing toi thay rang nhung hg san xuat duge tu van tir khuyen nong la CO y nghTa Icm va nhieu kha nang ap dung ehan nuoi theo huang an toan. Ket qua ciia chiing loi la
ip d^ng chan n
lucmg dong voi kk qua ciia Ali and Abdulai (2010) va To Th6 Nguyen va Giang Hoang Hieu (2016).
Tuy nhien, chiing toi khong th^y co sir anh huang CO y nghTa ih6ng ke ciia cac yeu to nhu:
dien tich chu6ng trai, kinh nghiem ciia chii hp, giai tfnh va djch vu den viec lira chpn hinh thirc chan nuoi Ign thil an loan ciia cac hp. Mpt so nghien ciju khang djnh la co moi quan he giira bien dat dai va hanh vi ra cac quyet dinh ap dung san xuat hiru CO (Adesina, 1996; Shiferaw and Holden, 1998 va Staal et al., 2002), Tuy nhien, bien nay dirge tim thay la khong co y nghTa thong ke trong cac nghien CUTJ do. Ket qua ciia chiing toi la tuong dong vai eac ket qua ciia Shiferaw and Holden (1998) va Staal el al., (2002).
Chitng toi danh gia su phii hgp cho mo hinh probit bang each do lirong phan tram ciia phan loai cac quan sal. Ty le long the phan loai chinh xac dugc uoc lugng la 70,3%, Cac nhom chan nuoi Ign thit theo hucmg an toan la 60,5% phan loai chinh xac (dac linh) va nhom chan nuoi Ign Ihil ihuong la 66,9% phan loai chinh xac (dp nhay).
Bang 6 chi ra sir phan bo ve viec ap dung chan nuoi Ign thjt an toan. Cu the han.
18 quan sat dirge phan loai la 0, va 35 quan sat dugc phan loai la 1.
Ty le 35/13 dugc gpi la do luang dp nhay va trinh bay phan cua cac quan sat ma lira chpn ehan nuoi Ign thit an toan (bang 1) dugc xae dinh rnpt each ehinh xac. Ty le 18/32 dai dien cho phSn ciia eac q^uan sat ma lira chgn ehan nuoi ign thit an toan (bang 0) duge xac djnh mpt each chinh xac.
5. Ket luan va mot so goi y chinh sach Nghien ciru chi ra rSng t6n lai 2 hinh thirc ehan nuoi gom ehan nuoi theo hirong an loan va chan nuoi thucmg 6 huyen Thanh Mien. Ty le tieu thu
!gn ihii a ca 2 hinh thirc chan nuoi ehu y^u thong qua nguoi ban buon (69,1% va 84,4%). Trong khi do, ty le tieu thu Ign thjt an loan irirc ti^p vai nguai tieu dung chiem 15,6% va 2,3% d6i vai hinh thirc Chan nuo. thuang, Ty le Ign thit an loan ban cho nguoi tieu dimg cao hon Ign thit thuang cho th5y su quan tam ciia nguoi tieu dimg den thuc phdm
an toan. "^
Nghien ciru nay cung chi ra rjng nhirng yh t6 nhu thu nh,p ttr chan nuoi, lao dong, hoc v L ha tang gtao thong va sir tham gia tap hudn khuyin
30> Tap chi nghien ciifu Tai chinh ke toan
(^6'05 (190)-2019)
NGHIEN cufu TRAO 001
nong ciia hp la co y nghTa thong ke va co tac dgng den viec lua chgn chan nuoi Ign an loan ciia hg.
Trong do, chi co yeu to thu nhap tir ehan nuoi la eo tac dpng tieu cue den xac suat lira chpn hinh thirc clian nuoi an loan, cac yeu to khac deu dem lai tae dong tich cue.
Mac dil, trong nghien ciru nay chung toi da dira cac yeu to nhu: dien tich chuong trai, kinh nghiem ciia chil hp. giai tinh va dich vu, tuy nhien khong thiy CO su anh huang co y nghTa thong ke den viec lua chgn hinh thuc chan nuoi ign thit an toan ciia cac hp,
Tir ket qua do, chiing toi khuyen nghi doi vai cac nha lam chinh sach rang, de hg lua chpn huong chan nuoi an loan thi can tap trung vao cong tac tap huan khuyen nong, tuyen truyen de cae hg nang cao trinh do hgc van va nhan thirc trong chan nuoi huong tai san xuat an toan. Hon nua, can hoan ihien hon ha tang giao thong de hoat dgng chan nuoi duac thuan lgi hon.
Phu luc
Mu ta cac bien %a dung Irong nio hinh tiifc lirfng llii'u t;i»i Oic til 'I hu nhap cua hp noiij; iljn Iti chin nuoi lun lh|l (iricu Abng) iien tij Om mo dien lich chuoni; irai Ini'l lien Iu (,lu> mo Ido iloiii; cua ho |s6 1.10 ilony cua h6| hin ly Solurakinh n^hicmi-ua chil ligdiSm) lien ty SD nam di hvk ciia chu lio {nim) lien ly Chin nuoi lijn ihil an loan (bany I neu co. bSiii; 0 neu khong) bien gi Giui Lua chu ho (bing I neu la nam. banu 0 la nu) bieni;i Sir thjin gia cac lap lap huan cua khuyen nony ve chin nuoi
lliang I neu co, bJng 0 neu khong] bicn iji Danli );ia \e ha lany giao Ihon^ (bing 1 neu Llanh iiia toi,
liaiigO neu danh gia la chua loll biengi Datih gia vc ha tang dich \yldien, nuac, giong, |
T a i li^u tham khao:
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Adesina. A A. (1996)- "Factors affecting the adoption of fertilizers by nee farmers in Cole d'lvoire. " .Nutrieni Cycling in Agroecosystems, 46. 29-39
Ah. A. and A Abdulai (2010). 'The adoption of genetically modified cotton and poverty reduction in Pakistan. " Journal of Agncultural Economics. 61: J 75-192
Amemiya. T (1981) "Qualitative response models: A survey." Journal of Economic Lileralure. 19 1483-1536
Basnayake. B M. J K and L H P. Gunaratne (2002):
"Estimation of technical efficiency and its delermhants in ihe lea small holding sector in the wet zone ofSri Lama. " Sn Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics. 4 137-150
Haugen. M S and B. Brandlh (1994) "Gender differences in modern agriculture: The case of female farmers in .\'anvay,' Gender and Society. 8 206-229
Huynh. !•' K. M Yabe. 11. Yokogawa. and G Saw (2008)
"Analysis of productive efficiency of soybean production in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. " Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture. Kyushu Universily. 53: 271-279
Raphael. 1 O (2008) "Technicarefficiency of cassava farmers in Soulh Eastern Nigeria Stochastic frontier approach. "
Agricultural Journal, 3: 152-156.
Nga Thj Thudn (2003) "Thuc trang san xual vd lieu thu rau an todn a xa Van I IQI. huyen Dong .Anh. ihdnh pho Hd Ndi". Tt/p cbi KHKTNong nghiep. Tdp 1. s6 2'2003
Nguyen Van Thu(in vd Vo Thdnh Danh (2011). "Phdn lich cdc yeu to dnh hucmg den hdnh vi lieu dung rau an loan lai ThdnhphdCdn Tha". Tap chi Khoa hoc 17b 113-119.
Tong cue Thdng ke (2017) Nien gidm ihdng ke 2016. NXB Thong ke, Hd NQI
To Thi Nguyen vd Giang Hodng Hieu (2016). "Phan lich quyet djnh ve lira chon sdn xudt rau an todn Trucmg hvp cua ho nong ddn xa L4 Chl. huyen Gia Ldm. Hd Ndi". Kmh te Phdi tnen. I • 173-179
Vo Minh Sang (2016)- "Tgo dung long tin lieu dung rau an loan Tnrdng hop nghien ciiv o Thanh pbd Cdn Tba. " Top chl Khoa hoc Trudng Dai hoc Cdn Tha. 43 120-130
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