50 SO 03-2019 CHAU Mi NGAY NAY,
CHIEN TRANH THlTONG MAI MY - TRUNG:
NGUYEN NHAN VA TAG D O N G Xdl KINH TE THE G l d l
Lo Thi Phuong Nhung*
Nguyen Mai Phuong*
Tom tat: Tdng thdng My Donald Trump dd khai mao cudc chien thuang mgi hdi thdng 7/2018 vdi quyet dinh tdng miec thue doi vdi cdc mat hdng nhgp khdu tie Trung Qudc, nhdm dap trd nhOng hanh dgng dugc cho Id dn cdp sd hiru tri tue, hogc gdy sire ep ddi v&i cdc cdng ty My ve vdn de chuyen giao cdng nghe. Sau nhiiu thdng cdng thdng thugng mgi hai ben dd nhdt tri v&i thda thuan dinh chien tam thdi trong vdng 90 ngay, dp dung tie ngay 01/12/2018. Tuy nhien, nhieu nhd kinh ti hgc nhan dinh rdng khodng thai gian ndy vdn la qua ngdn de hai ben cd the gidi quyet nhieng bdt ddng vd xung dot da tdn tgi trong mdi quan he giua hai nu&c nhieu ndm nay. Bdi viet di sdu phdn tich nguyen nhdn chien tranh thuang mgi My - Trung vd tdc ddng cita nd tdi kinh te the gidi.
Tu Idioa: Tliutmg mai, chien tranh thucmg mai, Itinh te, Mf, Trung Quoc.
1. Nguyen nhan cua chien tranh thirimg mat My - Trung
Sau Idii Donald Trump thing cii va trot Ihanh tong thong thii 45 cita My, the giod da budc sang mot giai doan mod day bien dong Idio luong. Trat tu the gioi dang bi dao Ion va quan he My - Trung tro nen cang thing, tir hop tac tro thanh doi diu, Trung Quoc nay la "doi thu chien luoc so mot" cua My.
Ngay 22/3/2018, Tdng th6ng Trump da ky mot ban ghi nha chi dao Co quan Sai dien Thucmg mai My (USTR) ap dyng miic tkak len 50 ty USD cho hang hoa Trung Quoc dira theo Muc 301 cua Dao luat Thuong mai nam 1974, de ngan chjn hanh vi thuong mai khong cong bing, bao gom ca trpm cap tai san tri tue.
USTR da cong bo danh sach hon 1.300 mat hang nhap khiu cua Trung Quoc tri gia 50 ty USD, trong do tap trung vao cac san phim duac dua vao ke hoach Made in China 2025, bao gom cac san phim hen quan den cong nghe thong tin va robot'. Ngay 15/6/2018, chiSn tranh thircmg mai My - Trung chinh thiic bit dau khi Tong thong My Donald Trump chinh thiic thong bao danh miic thug 25% len 50 ty USD hang Trung Qu6c nhap khiu vao My theo nhu thong bao h8i thang 3/2018.
Nhin ben ngoai, nguyen nhdn ciia cudc chien ndy xudt phat tie thdm hut thuang mgi ngay cdng gia tdng giiia My vd Trung Qudc. Quan h$ thuang mai gitta My va Trung Qu6c da phat tri^n
' Hoc vien Chinh tri Qudc gia H6 Chi Minh
CHAUMYNGAYNAY S 6 03-2019 51 rat nhanh chong ki tu khi hai nuac
chinh thiic bit diu thiSt lap quan he ngoai giao va ky kSt Hiep dinh Thucmg mai song phuong vao nam 1979. Ke tu do deri nay, kim ngaeh xuit nhap khiu song phucmg gitta My va Trung Qu6c tir miic chi 5 ty USD nam 1980 da tang len miic 636 ty USD nam 2017. Hien nay.
My va Trung Qu6c dang la doi tac thuong mai lan nhat ciia nhau. Cu thi.
My la thi truong xuat khiu Itin nhat cua Trung Quoc viii gia tri len toi 505 ty USD
trong nam 2017, tang 9,3% so vdi nam 2016. Thi phin hang xuit khiu cua Trung Quoc tai My da gia tang lien tuc, tir miic chi 8,2% vao nam 2000 tang len miic 21,6% vao nam 2017, duy tri la dfii tac xuit khiu nhieu nhat vao My ke tu nam 2007 dSn nay. 6 chiSu ngugc lai, Trung Quoc hien dang la thj truong xuit khiu Ion thii ba cua My (chiem ty trpng hem 8,4%, chi sau Canada va Mexico) vai gia tri dat han 130 ty USD trong nam 2017 .
Hinh 1: Kim ngaeh thirong mai song phirvng Trung Quoc vii My giai doan 2001-2017
BSI My XK »«ng TQ • • M J iNK t* TQ-"-Thim hut aimmg in?l Ngudn: International Trade Centre, WIS.
yh can can thuang mai. My co tham hvit thuong mai hang hoa rit Itm voi Trung Qudc, ttr miic 10 ty USD nim 1990 tang manh len miic 375 ty USD
cac d6i tac thuang mai khac cua My nhu Mexico (-71 ty USD), Nhat Ban (-69 ty USD), Diic (-64 ty USD)... Chi tinh rieng trong 6 thang diu nSm 2018 thi con so trong nam 2017. Miic tham hut thuong nay ciing da 6 miic 185,7 ty USD . Do mai vol Tnmg Qu6c ciing vuot xa so vdi do, trong n5 luc ih dat dugc can bing
52 SO 03-2019 CHAU M ^ NGAY NAY_
thuang mai vdi Trung Quoc, Chinh quyen T6ng thong Trump da tien hanh ap thue nhap khau len cac mat hang tir Trung Quoc, tao sttc ep de Tmng Quoc phai tang mua hang hoa cua My, qua do giam tham hut thuang mai. Ngoai ra, viec danh thue se khien hang hoa san xuat d Trung Quoc nhap khiu vao My it nhieu mat di lgi the canh tranh ve gia, buoc cac cong ty da quoc gia dang dat phan ldn nha may san xuit tai Trung Quoc phai xem xet di ddi ve My. Dieu nay giup ho trg sach luge dua viec lam trd ve My va khuyen khich san xuat npi dia cua Chinh quySn T6ng thong Trump.
Tuy nhien, ben canh nguyen nhan tham hut thuang mai thi cac chuyen gia ciing dua ra mpt so nguyen nhan sau xa cua chien tranh thuong mai My - Trung nhu sau:
Mgt Id, chien tranh thuang mai My - Trung xuat phat tit viec Chinh quyin My muon kiem che su trdi day cua Trung Qudc ca ve mat kinh te lan dja chinh tri.
Theo Joseph Nye, ke tu nam 1950 tra lai day, quan he My - Tnmg trai qua bdn giai doan: 1) Giai doan xung dot bat dau tu Chiin tranh Triiu Tien (1950-1971);
2) Giai doan hgp tac han che chong Lien Xd bit diu ttt khi Nixon tham Trung Qudc (1972-1990); 3) Giai doan hgp tac kinh t i bit diu ttt sau Chien tranh Lanh (1990-2017); va 4) Giai doan hien nay bat diu tu cu6i 2017 khi Chiin luge An ninh Qudc gia cua My (NSS) xac dinh doi diu nude ldn (great power rivalry)
vdi Trung Quoc va Nga - hai ddi thu chinh. Joseph Nye cho ring, quan he My - Trung Men nay khdng nen coi la chiin tranh lanh vi My va Trung Qudc cdn phu thudc nhiiu vao nhau, ma nen coi la "ddi khang trong hop tac"
(cooperative rivalry)''. Tuy nhien, nd cung khdng phai la chiin tranh thuang mai don thuin. Theo mdt so chuyen gia (nhu Graham Allison) giai doan 4 danh diu mdt cudc xung dot gitta sieu cudng cii (la My) va sieu cudng mdi (la Trung Qudc), theo thuyit "biy Thucydides".
My dang tich cue cung cd vi tri sieu cudng ciia minh tren ban dd dia chinh tri thi gidi va nhan thiy Trung Qudc dang ngay cang thach thuc vi tri nay'.
Rit nhiiu chinh sach vi cdng nghiep cua Trung Qudc da dugc thanh hinh va thuc thi ke tit nam 2006 khi Uy ban Nha nude Trung Qudc cho ra ddi Ke hoach phat trien khoa hpc va cdng nghe trong trung va dai han giai doan 2006-2020 (National Medium and Long-term Program for Science and Techonology Development, thudng dugc biit din vdi t6n gpi viet tit la MLP). Ki hoach nay thi hien tham vpng ldn cua Trung Qudc trong viec hien d?i hda cau tnic kmh t i bing each dua Trung Qudc tu trung tam san xuit vdi ky thuat thip len thanh trung tam ddi mdi chinh cua thi gitM vao nam 2020 va trd thanh nude din diu ddi mdi cua toan cau vao nam 2050.
Mgt ki hoach khac la "Made in China 2025" cung dugc Tnmg Qudc dua ra vao nam 2015, trong dd trgng tam la
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 03-2019 53 phat trien cac nganh cdng nghe cao vdi
ham lugng 70% nguyen lieu san xuit thudc vi khu vuc npi dia. Cac san phim dugc hudng din trong k i hoach nay la:
Tau cao tdc, may bay, xe dien tir lai, robot, tri tue nhan tao va mang viin thdng 5 G ' . Niu nhttng k i hoach nay thanh cdng, nhieu doanh nghiep cua Trung Qudc cd kha nang trd thanh ddi thu canh tranh va thach thuc vi tri sd mgt hien nay ciia cac doanh nghiep My.
Mdt sd nha phan tich cho rang, Chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Trump khdng ua thich kich ban nay, nhat la trong bdi canh cd nhung thdng tin cho ring doanh nghiep Trung Qudc dang vucm len thong qua each thtte stt dung cac sang chi cdng nghe cua My (Trung Qudc yeu ciu cac doanh nghiep nude ngoai mudn hoat ddng tai Trung Qudc phai lien doanh vdi cac doanh nghi$p ngi dja di chuyin giao cdng nghe, ben canh do vin de bao hd quyen sd hiru tri tue cua cac cdng ty nude ngoai hoat ddng tai Tnmg Qudc cQng chua dugc thuc hien hoan toan chat che) . Vdi nhttng ly do tren, Chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Donald Trump mudn thdng qua cudc chiin tranh thuang mai vdi Trung Qudc nhim gia tang sttc ep, tao ra sir cdng bing hon trong vide ddi xtt gitta cac doanh nghiep hai nude, bao v$
duac cac sang che.
Hat Id, xu hudng trdi day cua tam ly bao hd, CO lap, dan tuy tren thi gidi ndi chung va d My ndi rieng. Sir dac cii cua Tdng thdng Donald Trump cho thiy sir
khiing hoang cua chu nghia tu do va su ndi len cua chu nghia day tuy. Tdng thdng Trump cho rang, cac thiet che do My lap ra trudc kia chi phu hgp vdi bdi canh cu, da lam xong vai tro lich sii va din nay khdng cdn phu hgp, tham chi di ngugc lai lgi ich cua My; can dat lgi ich cua "My tren het" (America Fust) va san sang 'vftt bd cac cam ket khdng thuc sir can thiet.
Mdt sd hanh dgng cua Tdng thdng Donald Trump de "xoa ban cd lam lai"
nhu: 1) Rut khdi cac thiit che/cam kit qudc te khdng phu hgp vdi lgi ich cua My, nhu TPP va UNESCO; 2) Gay sue ep, dam phan lai cac hiep dinh/thoa thuan/dinh chi cu nhu USMCA vdi Mexico va Canada, se dam phan vdi Nhat Ban va EU theo each tuong tu (cai diiu khoan "thudc dgc"); 3) Cat giam cam kit tai chinh, gay sttc ep de cai to cac dinh che quan trpng nhu To chttc Thuang mai thi gidi va Lien Hgp qudc;
4) Tin cdng true dien vao cac thiet che mdi ra ddi cua Trung Qudc nhu: Sang kiin Vanh dai va Con dudng (BRI) va Ngan hang Dau tu Ha tang chau A (AIIB); 5) Lap ra cac thiit chi/dinh chi mdi, nhu: Chien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong tu do va rdng md (thay thi chiin luge "xoay tr\ic" hay
"tai can bing"). Trong xu hudng dd, chiin tranh thuang mai My - Trung chi la mgt budc di tiep theo ciia Chinh quyin Tdng thdng Trump theo dudi chii nghia dan tiiy, chinh sach bao hp va ehdng toan cau hda*.
54 CHAU M Y N G A Y N A V _
Ba Id, de thu hut them su ung hd ciia ett tri My trudc cupc bau ett Qudc hgi My thang 11/2018. Giam tham hut thucmg mai, thiet lap lai luat choi cdng bang khi lam an vdi Trung Qudc la mgt trong nhung muc tieu Trump dua ra ttt hdi tranh cu tdng thdng nam 2016. Ket qua bau ett gitta ky cilng cho thiy da sd ett tri My ung hd Trump trong eugc chien ehdng Bac Kinh, lam xu hudng ehdng Trump giam va xu hudng ung hg dng gia tang. Nha lanh dao phe Dan chu d Ha vien, ba Nancy Pelosi cung hoan nghenh vdng ap thue dau tien cua dng Trump len Trung Qudc de cd dugc cac cudc dam phan thuong mai cdng bang hem cho cac san pham ndi dia cua My.
Nhu vay, Trump da thuyet phuc dugc da sd ett tri My ung hd chu truong triing phat Bic Kinh trong cudc chien thuong mai. Trong cudc hpp bao sau bau ett vao ngay 7/11/2018, Trump ndi cudc chien thuang mai vdi Bic Kinh cd the gdp phin khic phuc sir chia re nghiem trpng ciia nude My.
2. Tac dong ciia chien tranh thirovg mai My Trung doi vdi hai nirdc trong cuoc va kinh te the gidi
Chuyen gia kinh ti Pham Nam Kim da nhan dinh, mpt cudc chien thucmg mai song phucmg, nhit la giua nhttng cudng qudc, trong bdi canh toan ciu hda hien nay, tit nhien se anh hudng tdi nhttiig nin kinh ti khac. Mdi ben se cd ging loi keo v i phia minh nhttng "ddng minh"
hay quoc gia dudi su chi phdi cua minh.
Bing chiing la muc thui 25% doi vdi thep va 10% ddi vdi nhdm, se khong ap dimg vdi nhttng ddng minh cua My 1^
EU, Canada, Australia, Han Qudc, Mexico... Ve phuang dien kinh te, uoi diu giua hai cudng qudc kinh tc the gioi dl nhien se lan rdng ra toan cau. Don cu, khi Tong thdng Trump ky sic lenh ap thui tren cac mat hang cua Trung Qudc thi chi sd chiing khoan tren toan the gioi da tut gia rit manh. Kinh ti thi gidi se dieu diing vdi cudc xung dot nay va mpi qudc gia se dat quyen lgi ciia minh len tren hit. Day cung la nguyen nhan cua su lay lan cua cudc chiin thucmg mai nay.
Tdc dgng toi My vd Trung Qudc Ddt vdi Trung QuSc, nude nay se chiu anh hudng manh va nhieu hon d giai doan dau cua chien tranh thuong mai. Diiu nay da dugc chiing mmh qua thuc ti, nhit la d khia canh thi trudng tai chinh va tiin te. Ki ttt khi thdng tin xung dot thuong mai bung phat, chi sd chiing khoan chinh cua Trung Qudc la Shanghai Composite da giam gia hon 20%, chinh thttc budc vao thi trudng gia xudng (bear market). Ben canh dd, ddng nhan dan te (CNY) ciing lao ddc gan 10%, keo theo ddng Vdn nude ngoai nit manh ra khdi thi trudng Trung Qudc.
Diem bat lgi cho Trung Qudc la chien tranh thuang mai diln ra trong luc nin kinh te nude nay vin dang trong giai doan giam tdc va cac chiin dich giam ddn bay ng, xii ly he thdng ngan hang ngam... vin dang dugc Chinh phu Trung Qudc thuc Men manh me.
CHAUMYNGAYNAY S6 03-2019 55 De ddi phd vdi chiin tranh thuang
mai vdi My, Trung Qudc da phai tam thdi dttng vice thuc thi chinh sach tiin te that -chat bing each lien tuc giam ty le du trtt bit budc (ba lin tinh ttt diu nam 2018 den nay), bcfm them khoang 107 ty USD cho he thdng ngan hang, qua do giam lai suit va thilc diy hoat ddng cho vay cac doanh nghiep vua va nhd. Mdt chinh sach tai khda theo hudng giam thue thu nhap doanh nghiep va khuyen khich cac du an xay dung ha tang cung dugc Trung Qudc cdng bd.
Ngoai ra, ddng nhan dan te cung da cd su dn dinh trd lai ke ttt cudi thang 8/2018 cho den nay nhd cac bien phap xu ly mang tinh "ky thuat" cua Trung Qudc (ap dung trd lai yeu td phan chu ky "cyclical counter" trong eg che dieu hanh ty gia hang ngay). Khac vdi My, vdi CO che quyen luc mang tinh tap tnmg hon, viec diiu hanh chinh sach cua Trung Qudc mang tinh mem deo, nhat quan, kip thdi va khdng vap phai nhiiu su phan ddi. Nhung bi?n phap ung phd cua Trung Qudc nham muc tieu ldn nhit la tang cudng sttc manh cua kinh te ndi dia, han chi sir anh hudng tieu cue tii thi trudng xuat khau.
Ddi vdi My, viec danh thue se khien hang hda nhap khiu tu Trung Qudc vao My trd nen dit do horn. Ca ciu mat hang My nhap ttt Trung Qudc kha da dang, gdm ca: phuang tien san xuat nhu may mdc, thiit M, phuang tien van tai...; hang hda trung gian, vdn la dau vao cho cac nganh san xuit nhu linh kien may tinh.
thiet bi vien thdng, phu tung d to...;
hang hda tieu dung nhu dien thoai di ddng, hang dien ttt, hang may mac, da giay... Trong gdi danh thue 50 ty USD diu tien. My chu yeu danh thui nham vao cac loai phuong tien san xuat va hang hda trung gian, nhung den gdi 200 ty USD trong giai doan thtt hai thi danh muc hang hda da md rdng sang rat nhieu nhdm hang tieu dung. Nhu vay, trong kich ban tdng gia tri hang hda bi danh thui la 250 ty USD (tham chi leo thang len muc cao nhat la toan bd hang hda Trung Qudc xuat khau vao My nhu Trump de dpa) thi ca doanh nghiep san xuat lan ngudi tieu dung My deu se bi anh hudng. Mat bing gia ca tieu dimg se tang len va cac doanh nghiep ciing nhu ngudi tieu dung My se phai ganh cMu thiet hji. Gia ca tang cflng se la dtt lieu quan trpng de FED xem xet Id trinh tang lai suat nhanh hon. Tuy nhien, mgt yeu td giiip giam bcit hieu ting tieu cue cita chien tranh thuong mai ddi vdi My la chuong trinh cai each thue cita chinh quyen Trump khien cho thu nhap kha dung cua ngudi dan My tang len, giiip hap thu phin nao xu hudng tSng len ciia gia hang hda. Do vay, theo danh gia ciia cae chuyen gia, tren bmh dien ndi chung, viec tang thui cd the se khdng anh hudng qua manh din hoat ddng tieu dung cua ngudi dSn My, qua do tang trudng cua My nhiiu kha nang vin dugc dam bao.
Neu muc dich chinh cua Chinh quyen Trump chi la gianh liy su iing hd
56 CHAU MY NGAYNAY, cila eu tri My thi nhieu kha nang chien
tranh thuong rnai My - Trung se ha nhiet sau khi cudc bau cu Qudc hdi giua ky cua My kit thuc. Neu muc tieu cua Chinh quyen Trump la giam tham hut thucmg mai vdi Tnmg Qudc thi xtmg dot thuong mai cd the se ha nhiet niu Trung Qudc cam ket tang mua hang hda tu My trong thdi gian tdi de dua tham hut cua My vdi Trung Qudc xudng cdn khoang 100 ty USD/nam. Niu Chinh quyin Trump hudng den muc tieu mang tinh chiin luge dai han hon nhu nhieu chuyen gia phan tich la kiem che sir trdi day ciia Trung Qudc thi nhieu kha nang cudc chien thuong mai nay se cdn keo dai va diin biin phiic tap. Theo danh gia nhiiu chuyen gia, cd rit it kha nang Trung Qudc se ttt bd ke hoach "Made in China 2025" cua hp nen viec My cd the lam chi ia ngan chan each thttc thuc thi ki hoach nay cua Trung Qudc ciing nhu ludn gitt lgi thi chu ddng cho cac doanh nghiep cdng nghe My. Cach thttc Chinh quyin Trump dang ap dimg Men nay la siit lai cac vu mua ban cac cdng ty cdng nghe My cua Trung Qudc, ddng thdi ap thui quan len hang hda nhap khau nham gay siic ep de Trung Quoc phai md cua thi trudng trong nude rdng rai han cho cac doanh nghiep My ma khdng kem yeu ciu chuyen giao cdng nghe. Bang each nay, cac cdng nghe, sang che cua My se dugc bao ve tdt hon va Trung Qudc se cin them nhieu thdi gian de cd thi tu mmh lam chu dugc nhttng cdng nghe mdi nay.
Tdc dpng t&i kinh ii the gi&i Chiin tranh thuong mai My - Trung de nang len nganh sdn xudt loan cau.
Thang 12/2018, hoat ddng san xuat dan chttng lai tren toan chau Au va chau A khi cudc chiin thuang mai My - Trung vin chua di din hoi kit, cung vdi do, san lugng cua khdng it nen kinh te cung cMu tac ddng khi nhu cau tieu thu giam.
Thuc trang nay bao hieu mdt trien vpng am dam trong nam mdi 2019. Hang loat thdng ke cdng bd ngay 2/1/2019 cho thiy, hiu hit cac chi sd quan ly thu mua (PMI) trong thang 12/2018 diu chi ra hoat ddng san xuit toan ciu diin bien theo xu hudng giam hoac chung lai. Tai Trung Qudc, chi sd Caixin/IHS Markit PMI lin diu tien budc vao ngudng giam trong vdng 19 thang qua. Su suy yiu san xuit tai Trung Qudc cung lan sang cac nin kinh t i khac d chau A nhu Malaysia, Dai Loan (Trung Qudc), Singapore, An Dp va Han Qudc.
Cuoi nam 2018, hoat ddng san xuat tai cac qudc gia trong khu virc ddng tien chung chau Au hau nhu giam chan tai chd, cac khao sat PMI trudc dd tai Italia va Phap tiip tuc trong ngudng giam va trien vpng tang trucmg san xuat tai ca Due va Tay Ban Nha diu rit md nhat.
Trong khi dd, cac nha may tai Anh lai- dang tang cudng du tttt di phdng kha nang hoat ddng thugng mai vdi EU bi gian doan khi qudc gia nay rdi khdi khdi ma khdng cd thda thuan. Chi sd PMI cua Anh tang manh han du doan, len muc cao nhit trong vdng 6 thang.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Nha chien luge chau A cua Ngan hang ANZ Irene Cheung cho rang kinh te toan ciu se thuc su chttng lai trong nam 2019 va xu hutmg nay dang tac ddng manh tdi cac qudc gia chau A, dac biet la cac nin kinh te dua nhieu vao xuat khau. Theo chuyen gia nay, cac thdng sd mdi cdng bd cang cung cd niem tin ring trong nam 2019, cac ngan hang tnmg uong se khdng thay ddi dang ki chinh sach tien te so vdi nam 2018'.
Quy Tien te Qudc te (IMF) canh bao cudc chien thuang mai gitta My va Trung Qudc se lam cho the gidi trd nen
"ngheo va nguy hiem hem" trong danh gia mdi nhat cua IMF ve nen kinh te
toan cau. Nha kinh te trudng cua IMF cho biet cac rao can thuang mai se anh hudng den cac hd gia dinh, doanh nghiep va cac khu vuc kinh ti khac.
"Chmh sach thuang mai phan anh chinh tri ma chinh tri vin cdn bat dn d mdt sd nude, cho nen se t^o ra nhieu rui ro han ntta"'"
Tang trudng kinh te toan cau hidn nay du kiin dat 3,7% vao nam 2018 va 2019, giam so vdi du bao trudc dd cua IMF la 3,9%. Vice tang trudng toan cau suy giam cung se anh hudng den nhimg du bao ve viec md rdng khu vuc ddng Euro cflng nhu su bat on trong mpt sd nen kinh te thi trudng mdi ndi.
Hinh 2: Dy bao Idnh te toan cau cua IMF: Cac nen Idnh t i phat trien
A n n ^y!,i^ti^,^yi,{jij
'^ VM'MV///M//^AyAV/////)'AyM
0.5
• 2019
Nguon: IMF, 2018
Doi v&i khu vitc Dong Nam A, eugc CNBC dan bao cao mdi nhat cua Cdng chiin thuong mai gitta Washington va ty tu van Bain&Co. cho biet, cac qudc Bic Kinh khiin nhiiu cdng ty toan ciu gia Ddng Nam A cd the dugc hudng lgi can nhic lai v i chudi cung ling cua mmh. dang ke neu nhu cac cdng ty tren
56 SO 03-2019 CHAU MY N G A Y N A ^ cua cii tri My thi nhiiu kha nang chiin
tranh thuang inai My - Trung se ha nhiet sau khi cudc bau ett Qudc hpi gitta ky cua My kit thiic. Niu muc tieu cua Chinh quyen Trump la giam tham hut thuang mai vdi Trung Quoc thi xung dot thucmg mai cd thi se ha nhiet niu Tnmg Qudc cam ket tang mua hang hda ttt My trong thdi gian tdi de dua tham hut cua My vdi Trung Qudc xudng cdn khoang 100 ty USD/nam. Niu Chinh quyin Trump hudng den muc tieu mang tinh chien luge dai han hem nhu nhidu chuyen gia phan tich la kiem che su trdi day cua Trung Qudc thi nhieu kha nang cudc chien thuong mai nay se cdn keo dai va diin bien phuc tap. Theo danh gia nhidu chuyen gia, cd rat it Idia nang Trung Qudc se ttt bd ke hoach "Made in China 2025" cua hp nen viec My cd thi lam chi la ngan chan each thuc thuc thi ke hoach nay cua Trung Qudc ciing nhu ludn gitt lgi thi chu dpng cho cac doanh nghiep cdng nghe My. Cach thttc Chinh quyen Trump dang ap dung hifn nay la siet lai cac vu mua ban cac cdng ty cdng nghe My cua Trung Qudc, ddng thdi ap thui quan len hang hda nhap khau nham gay sue ep de Trung Qudc phai md cua thi trudng trong nude rdng rai hem cho cac doanh nghiep My ma khdng kem yeu cau chuyen giao cdng nghe. Bang each nay, cac cdng nghe, sang che cua My se dugc bao ve tdt hon va Trung Qudc se cin them nhieu thdi gian di cd thi tu minh lam chu dugc nhflng cdng nghe mdi nay.
Tdc dpng t&i kinh ti thi gi&i Chiin tranh thuong mai My - Trung de nang len nganh sdn xudt todn cdu:
Thang 12/2018, hoat dgng san xuit din chttng lai tren toan chau Au va chau A khi cudc chiin thuong mai My - Trung van chua di den hdi kit, cimg vdi dd, san lugng cua khdng it nin kinh t i ciing cMu tac ddng khi nhu cau tieu thu giam.
Thuc trang nay bao hieu mpt triin vpng am dam trong nam mdi 2019. Hang loat thdng ke cdng bd ngay 2/1/2019 cho thay, hau hit cae chi sd quan ly thu mua (PMI) trong thang 12/2018 diu chi ra hoat ddng san xuat toan cau diln bien theo xu hudng giam hoac chung lai. Tai Trung Qudc, chi sd Caixin/IHS Markit PMI Ian dau tien budc vao nguang giam trong vdng 19 thang qua. Sir suy yiu san xuat tai Trung Qudc cung lan sang cac nin kinh ti khac d chau A nhu Malaysia, Dai Loan (Trung Qudc), Singapore, An Dp va Han Qudc.
Cudi nam 2018, hoat ddng san xuit tai cac qudc gia ttong khu vuc ddng tiin chung chau Au hiu nhu giam chan tai chd, cac khao sat PMI trudc dd tai Italia va Phap tiep tuc trong nguang giam va ttien vgng tang trudng san xuit tai ca Due va Tay Ban Nha diu rat md nhat.
Trong khi dd, cac nha may tai Anh lai- dang tang cudng du trii di phdng kha nang hoat ddng fliuong mai vdi EU bi gian doan khi qudc gia nay rdi khdi khdi ma khdng cd flida fliuan. Chi sd PMI cua Anh tang manh han du doan, ldn tttitc cao nhat ttong vdng 6 thang.
CHAUMY NGAY NAY S6 03-2019 Nha chien luge chau A cua Ngan hang ANZ Irene Cheung cho ring kinh te toan cau se thuc sir chiing lai ttong nam 2019 va xu hudng nay dang tac dgng manh tdi cac qudc gia chau A, dac biet la cac nen kinh te dua nhiiu vao xuat khau. Theo chuyen gia nay, cae thdng sd mdi cdng bd cang cilng cd niem tm rang trong nam 2019, cac ngan hang trung uong se khdng thay doi dang ke chinh sach tien te so vdi nam 2018'.
Quy Tien te Qudc t i (IMF) canh bao cudc chiin thuong mai gifta My va Trung Qudc se lam cho the gidi trd nen
"ngheo va nguy hiem hon" trong danh gia mdi nhat cua IMF ve nen kinh te
toan cau. Nha kinh t i trudng cua IMF cho biet eac rao can thucmg mai se anh hudng din cac hd gia dinh, doanh nghiep va cac khu vuc kinh te khac.
"Chinh sach thuang mai phan anh chinh tti ma chinh tri van cdn bat dn d mdt sd nude, cho nen se tao ra nhieu rui ro hon ntta"'"
Tang trudng kinh te toan cau Men nay du kiin dat 3,7% vao nam 2018 va 2019, giam so vdi du bao tnrdc dd cua IMF la 3,9%. Viec tang trudng toan can suy giam cung se anh hudng den nhflng du bao ve viec md rdng khu vuc ddng Euro Cling nhu su bat dn ttong mdt sd nen kinh te thi trudng mdi ndi.
Hinh 2: Dir bao kinh te toan eau cua IMF: Cae nen kinh te phat trien
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Doi v&i khu vuc Ddng Nam A, cudc chiin fliuong mai giua 'Washington va Bac Kinh kMen nhieu cdng ty toan cau can nhic lai ve chudi cung ling ciia minh.
CNBC dan bao cao mdi nhat ciia Cdng ty tu van Bain&Co. cho biet, cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A cd the dugc hudng lgi dang ki neu nhu cac cdng ty tten
56 CHAU MY NGAYNAY.
cua cii tri My thi nhiiu kha nang chiin ttanh thucmg mai My - Trung se ha nhiet sau khi cudc bau ett Qudc hdi gitta ky eua My ket thuc. Neu muc tieu ciia Chinh quyin Trump la giam tham hut thuong mai vdi Trung Qudc thi ximg dot thuong mai cd the se ha nhiet neu Tnmg Qudc cam ket tang mua hang hda ttt My ttong thdi gian tdi de dua tham hut cua My vdi Trung Qudc xudng cdn khoang 100 ty USD/nam. Niu Chinh quyin Trump hudng den muc tieu mang tinh chien luge dai han hon nhu nhiiu chuyen gia phan tich la kiem che sir ttdi day cua Trung Qudc thi nhieu kha nang cudc chien thuang mai nay se cdn keo dai va dien bien phttc tap. Theo danh gia nhiiu chuyen gia, cd rat it kha nang Tnmg Qudc se ttt bd ki hoach "Made in China 2025" cua hp nen viec My cd the lam chi la ngan chan each thttc thuc thi ki hoach nay cua Trung Qudc cilng nhu ludn gitt lgi the chu ddng cho cac doanh nghiep cdng nghe My. Cach thttc Chinh quyen Trump dang ap dvmg hien nay la siet lai cac vu mua ban cac cdng ty cdng nghe My cua Trung Qudc, ddng thdi ap thue quan len hang hda nhap khau nham gay sue ep di Trung Qudc phai md eua thi ttudng trong nude rgng rai hon cho cac doanh nghiep My ma khdng kem yeu cau chuyen giao cdng nghe. Bang each nay, cac cdng nghe, sang che cua My se dugc bao ve tdt hon va Tmng Quoc se cin them nhieu flidi gian di cd thi tu minh lam chu dugc nhttng cdng nghe mdi nay.
Tdc dpng t&i kinh te the gi&i Chiin ttanh fliuomg mai My - Trung de nang len nganh sdn xudt todn cdu:
Thang 12/2018, hoat ddng san xuit din chttng lai tren toan chau Au va chau A khi cudc chiin thuang mai My - Trung van chua di din hdi kit, cimg vdi dd, san lugng cua khdng it nin kinh te cung chiu tac ddng khi nhu ciu tieu thu giam.
Thuc trang nay bao hieu mdt trien vpng am dam ttong nam mdi 2019. Hang loat thdng ke cdng bd ngay 2/1/2019 cho thay, hau het cac chi sd quan ly thu mua (PMI) trong thang 12/2018 diu chi ra hoat ddng san xuit toan cau dien bien theo xu hudng giam hoac chttng l?i. Tai Trung Qudc, chi sd Caixm/IHS Markit PMI lan dau tidn budc vao nguang giam ttong vdng 19 thang qua. Su suy yeu san xuit tai Trung Qudc ciing lan sang cac nen kinh te khac d chau A nhu Malaysia, Dai Loan (Trung Qudc), Smgapore, An Do va Han Qudc.
Cudi nam 2018, hoat dgng san xuat t?i cac qudc gia ttong khu vuc ddng tien chung chau Au hau nhu giam chan tai chd, cac khao sat PMI trudc dd t?i Italia va Phap tiip tuc ttong ngudng giam va trien vpng tang trudng san xuat tai ca Due va Tay Ban Nha diu rit md nh?t.
Trong khi dd, cac nha may tai Anh lai- dang tang cudng du dv de phdng kha nang hoat ddng fliuong mai vdi EU h\
gian doan khi qudc gia nay rdi khdi khdi ma khdng cd tiida thuan. Chi sd PMI eua Anh tang manh hon du doan, len miic cao nhit ttong vdng 6 thang.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 57 Nha chien luge chau A cua Ngan
hang ANZ Irene Cheung cho ring kuih te toan cau sg thuc su chttng lai ttong nam 2019 va xu hudng nay dang tac dpng manh tdi cac qudc gia chau A, dac biet la cac nen kinh te dira nhiiu vao xuat khau. Theo chuyen gia nay, eac thdng sd mdi cdng bd cang cung cd niim tin ring ttong nam 2019, cac ngan hang trung uang se khdng thay ddi dang ki chinh sach tiin te so vdi nam 2018'.
Quy Tiin te Qudc te (IMF) canh bao cudc chien thuang mai gitta My va Trung Qudc se lam cho the gidi trd nen
"ngheo va nguy Mem ban" trong danh gia mdi nhat cua IMF ve nen kinh te
toan cau. Nha kinh t i trudng cua IMF cho biet cae rao can thuang mai se anh hudng den cac hd gia dinh, doanh nghiep va cac khu vuc kinh te khac.
"Chinh sach thuong mai phan anh chinh tti ma chinh tri vSn cdn bat dn d mdt sd nude, cho nen se tao ra nhieu rui ro hon ntta"'°
Tang trudng kinh te toan cau hien nay du kiin dat 3,7% vao nam 2018 va 2019, giam so vdi du bao trudc do cua IMF la 3,9%. Viec tang trudng toan cau suy giam cilng se anh hudng den nhftng du bao ve viec md rdng khu vuc ddng Euro ciing nhu sy bat dn ttong mdt sd nen kinh te thi trudng mdi ndi.
Hinh 2: Dy bao kinh te toan cau ciia IMF: Cac nen kinh te phat trien
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Ddi v&i khu vuc Ddng Nam A, cudc CNBC din bao cao mdi nhit cua Cdng chiin fliuong mai giua 'Washington va ty tu vin Bain&Co. cho biit, cac qudc Bic Kinh khiin nhiiu cdng ty toan cau gia Ddng Nam A cd ttii dugc hudng lgi can nhic lai vi chudi cung ung cua minh. dang ki niu nhu cac cdng ty teen
58 SO 03-2019 CHAUMYNGAYNAY chuyin huiing tim ca sd cung ung tai
mdt dia diim khac. Satish Shankar - hdi vien quan ly chuyen vi Ddng Nam A cua Bain&Co. nhan dinh: "Ve mat ngin han, chic chin se cd tac ddng xau tdi khu vac vi day la co sd xuit khau cho My ndi rieng va cho thi gidi ndi chung. Tuy nhien, ve dai han, chung tdi kha ty tin ring thanh vien trong Hiep hpi cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN) se la diem den hap din cho cac cdng ty toan cau tim chudi cung irng thay the Trung Qudc"
Bain&Co. du doan khi cac cdng ty can nhac chuyen chudi cung iing cua hg sang Ddng Nam A, cac doanh nghiep vtta va nhd ttong khu vyc se ap dung nhieu cdng nghe hon vao hoat ddng hang ngay cd kha nang tao ra co hdi tri gia len tdi 1.000 ty USD. Ngay ca khi cang thing thuong mai ha nhiet, cac cdng ty van se tim each va chuyen mdt vai chudi cung dng cita hp sang Ddng Nam A vi hai ly do: 1) Qua ttinh nay da va dang dugc tien hanh. Ket qua la cac cdng ty cd kinh nghiem hoat ddng d nhiing qudc gia nhu Viet Nam va Thai Lan deu nhan dugc tin hieu tich eye; 2) Day la eg che hoat ddng kinh doanh bao dam da dang hda va cdng ty khdng gap riii ro khi tap trung vao mdt chudi cung ting duy nhit.
Trong tuang lai, cac cdng ty se chuyin sang chudi cung ung phan phdi, ma d do hp se cd nhieu ngudn cung cap cho mdt san pham cu the. Su hien dien bung nd ciia cac cdng ty da lam cho ASEAN trd thanh mdt ca sd cung ung hgp phap. Day la khdi kinh te ItJn thtt
nam tren thi gidi, cd quy md tucmg duong vdi Anh va An Do. Khdi kinh ti nay da tang trudng 4,5-5% vdi rit nhiiu diu tu ten-c tiip nude ngoai vao khu vuc.
Ong Shankar luu y mdi qudc gia ttong khu vuc lai sd hiru mpt thd manh khac nhau: "Cu the nhu Thai Lan, vdi nganh cdng nghe d td phat ttien, cd the ttd thanh ca sd cung img thay the cho cac cdng ty thupc linh 'vyc nay" .
3. NhOng tac dong tdi Viet Nam Viet Nam, vdi gin 100 trieu ngudi tieu dung d muc thu nhap trung binh, Iii mdt thi trudng rit hip din va se dugc nhieu nude quan tam. Han ntta, Viet Nam la cua ngo de di vao thi trudng ASEAN va CPTPP. Do vay, mdi ttudng kinh doanh tai Viet Nam, trong bdi canh chien ttanh thuang mai the gitii, cd tinh canh ttanh rat khdc liet. Ben canh dd, Viet Nam, cflng nhu nhirng qudc gia khac, se phai ttanh diu khdng ngimg de gift gin va phat triin cac thi trudng xuat khiu cua minh. Mat khac, khi chiin tranh thuang mai bung nd giiia hai sieu cudng thi ben nao cflng mudn loi keo Viet Nam ve phe cua minh va khi da hi Idi ki-o vi mdt bdn thi chic chin Viet Nam se chiu sy chi phoi cua phe dd va coi phe ddi lap la "ttiii dich" theo do se phai hung chiu nhung ddn trimg phat ttrong tu nhu mdt bdn sieu cudng ddi dich. Do dd, vdi vi thi ma mpt qudc gia cd quan he thuang mai sau rdng vdi ca Trang Qu6c va My thi chiin ttanh thuong mai My - Trang dugc dy bao se
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 59 tae ddng tdi kinh te Viet Nam theo ca
hai cMeu hudng tich cyc va tieu cue.
Ve tdc dgng tieu cue, theo chuyen gia kinh te Dmh Tuin Minh, khi hang Trung Qudc xuat khau vao My hi ap thue, de giam phu thugc vao My, duy tti nang suat, Trang Qudc cd thi cd nhftng chinh sach pha gia, diy hang hda sang cac nude xung quanh, ttong do cd Viet Nam. Ben canh dd, cdn tdn tai nguy ca hang Tnmg Qudc tran vao ndi dia Viet Nam di tieu thu ma tham chi cd the nap dudi xuat xu khac, chang han nhu
"made in Viet Nam". Trong tradng hgp neu lugng hang hda nay du ldn ve sd lugng cd the gay ra cac tac ddng tieu cyc din thi tradng, tam ly hoang mang cho ngudi tieu dung, tham chi lam giam uy tin hang hda Viet Nam tten thi ttudng neu nhu nhftng hang tean vao cd chat lugng kem. Nhiing dieu nay tao ra sue ep cho doanh nghipp ndi dia cua Viet Nam. Ben canh dd, Trung Qudc la mdt ttong nhung thi ttudng xuat khau ldn nhit cua Viet Nam. Khi hang hda Trung Qudc khdng thi ban sang thi tradng My, hg se tan dung sue tieu dimg teong nude, khi dd hang hda xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Tmng Qudc cung se bi canh ttanh gay gat.
Khdng chi vay, chiin teanh thttong mai leo fliang lam Viet Nam phai ddi mat vdi nguy ca chuyen dich dau tu gia mao, gian lan thuang mai do Trung Qudc mugn flii trudng di ttanh thue. Ndi each khac, doanh nghiep Trung Qudc cd flie diu tu sang Viet Nam chi di thuc Men
quy ttrinh san xuat nhd, tu do liy xuit xu Viet Nam xuit di de ttanh thue. Ngoai ra, theo tiin sy Trin Toan Thang neu xung dot thuong mai gia tang cd the se keo theo chinh sach bao hg cua cac thi trudng khac. Dd la van de dang lo ngai, bdi bao hd thudng cd tinh lan tda.
Tuy nhien, ben canh nhirng tac ddng tieu cyc, cMen ttanh thuang mai My - Tnmg cilng mang lai mgt sd ca hdi cho Viet Nam neu biet tan dung.
Mdt Id, nang thue cao se tao ra lo hdng ttong thi trudng cua ca My va Trang Qudc. Dd cd thi la ca hdi cho cac nude xung quanh, ttong dd cd Viet Nam. Ben canh do, ddng nhan dan te mat gia manh so vdi USD, qua dd nhan dan te cimg mat gia so vdi 'VND, giup cac doanh nghiep nhap khau nguyen lieu tir Trung Qudc nhieu (nhu det may, da giay...) nhap dugc cac nguyen phu lieu vdi gia re hon, ttt dd giam gia thanh xuat khiu de tang sire canh tranh.
Hai la, v i co hdi thu hut diu tu. Cac nha dau tu nude ngoai tai Trung Qudc lo sg My ap thue cao nen se chuyin dich day chuyin san xuit sang cae nude khac. Tham chi, cac nha doanh nghiep Trung Qudc cung cd xu hudng chuyen nha may san xuit ra nude ngoai de ttanh tfiui. Day la ca hdi di Viet Nam thu hut diu tu, tir dd giiip xuit khiu tang, nhieu viec lam mdi dugc tao ra.
Tuy vSy, qua trinh hudng lgi cflng se diin ra vdi quy mo vtta phai va tir tir vi doi vdi cac tap doan da qudc gia, san xuat tai Trang Qudc van cd sue hap dan
60 S O 03-2019 C H A U M * N G A Y N A ^
nhat dinh, nhat la doi vcri cac phan khiic can trinh do nhan cong cao du miic luong tai day dang co xu hirong tang.
C) cac nganh hang nhu idp rap dd dien tu, cac loai chip, chat ban din, hang may mac, da giay, san xuat do choi tre em, do dung the thao, do g6 noi that... Viet Nam CO co hoi rat Ion trong viec gianh them thi ph4n t£r Trung Quoc tai thi truong Mf cung nhu thu hiit them von FDI vao cac nganh hang nay, qua do tao them viec lam, tang xuat khau, cai thien can can thuang mai.
Hien nay, rat kho co thd du doan chinh xac dugrc cupc chien thuong mai se keo dai bao lau, cung nhu tac dpng cua no den cac nuoc thu ba. Cho nen theo cac chuyen gia, doanh nghiep va n6n kinh te' npi dja cin tinh tao de tan dung duoe cac th&i co ma no dem lai • Tai lieu tham khdo:
1. Andrew Silver, US - China trade war rattles labs.
Nature; London, Vol. 558, Jun 2018.
2. H i Thu, A^J, Trung Quoc cong bo ket qua dam phdi thucmg mai. https://vnexpress.net, ngay 10- 01-2019.
3. Hong Anh, Dam phdn thuang mgi My - Trung:
Bad Dang Trung Quoc gay gat cdnh bdo My dimg
"du^c voi doi tien ", http://soha.vn, ngJiy 8-1 -2019.
4. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Rethinking Globalization in the Trump Era: US-China Relations, Frontiers of Economics in China; Beijing Vol. 13, Oct 2018.
5. Kelan Lu, The Spillover Effect of the Trade War between Adversarial Dyads: Evidence from the Sino-US Investment Relationship, Journal of Chinese Political Science; Dordrecht, Nov-2018 6. Kerry Liu, Chinese Manufacturing in the Shadow
of the China -. US Trade War, Economic Affairs;
London Vol. 3 8, Oct 2018
7. Nam Phong, Chien tranh thuang mgi My - Trung:
Loi di nao cho Vi0t Nam? http://www.
vietnamplus.vn, ngAy truy caip 20-3-2019 8. The US-China trade war is on hold,
https://www.economist.com, 2-12-2018.
Chii thich:
I. USTR, USTR Issues Tariffs on Chinese Products in Response to Unfair Trade Practices, https://ustr.gov, 15-6-2018.
2,3. International Trade Centre, https./Zwww.trademap .org ngay truy cgp 20-1-2019.
4. Joseph S. Nye, The Cooperative Rivaby of US- China Relations, https.//www,project-syndicate, org, 6-11-2018.
5. Graham Allison, The next great war, https://www.washingtonpost.com, 9-11-2018.
6. Scott Kemiedy, Made in China 2025, https://www.csis.org, 1-6-2015.
7,8. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Rethinking Globalization in the Trump Era: US-China Relations, Frontiers of Economics in China; Beijing Vol. 13, Oct 2018 9. h& Anh, Chien tranh thirong mgi My - Trung de
n$ng len nganh sdn xudt toan cdu, https://baotintuc.vn, ngSy 02-01-2019.
ID.Szu Ping Chan, Cu^c chien thuang mgi A ^ - Trung se khien the gi&i 'ngheo han vd nguy hiim han', https://www.bbc.com, ngiy 10-10-2018.
ll,12.H^ng H?nh, Chiin tranh thuang mgi Mp- Trung, vi ddi hgn Dong Nam A huong l(?i, https://news.vnanet.vn, Thii Tu, 09/01/2019
