CHIEN TRANH TIEN TE- CAN NGUYEN VA TAC DdNG
• PGS, TS PHAM THJ TUY Trung tdm Khdo ihi vd Ddm bdo chdt lugng ddo too.
Hoc vien Chinh tri quoc gia Ho Chi Minh
1. "Chien tranh tien tf" trong lich sir va can nguyen cua no
Trong lich sii phdt trien kmh te, cuOc chay dua phd gid ddng tien giiia cac cuong qudc kmh tg ttong tiidp nien 1920 va 1930 dugc bigt dgn nhu Id trudng hgp kinh dign cua chign ttanh tign te. Khoi thuy cho cuOc chign tign tg ndy Id Diic (nudc bgi ttan ttong Chign ttanh thg gidl thli I) voi mOt dpt Iam phdt dugc Ngdn hang Trung uong Diic (Reichsbank) tinh todn (ndm 1921) nhdm tdng cudng ndng luc cgnh ttanh nhung rdt cuOc dd vupt ra ngodi tdm kigm soat vd pha hiiy ngn kinh tg bi kim kep bdi gdnh ndng chign phi. Ndm 1922, Reichsbank phai
"dien cudng" m tien dg tta luong cho cdc nhan vign nha nudc va cdng nhdn nghiep dodn. Hgu qua la mdt ddia My khi dy cd gid tri lon dgn ndi cdc du khdch My khdng thg tieu xai nd vi cac chu cua higu khdng thn ddu ra dupc hang trieu mark de ttd Igi tign thira.
Truoc tmh hinh hon logn ciia kinh te Diic ndi rigng va cdc nuoc khu vuc chdu Au thdi ky do, cac qudc gia khdc cung Idn lugt "ra ddn ttd dua", cu thg thdi digm phd gia ddng nOi t? ciia
Phdp Id nam 1925, Anh (1931), My (1933),...
Cugc chign nay xoay vdng khdng dupc giai quyet diit digm cho dgn tan Chign tranh thg gidl thli II va Hgi nghi Bretton Woods (1944), dupc chia thdnh nhieu giai dogn, ttdi dai sudt ca 5 chdu luc vd gdy dnh hu6ng ldn den sau nay.
Kgt thuc Chien ttanh thg gidi thu II, cdc cudng qudc kinh tg chinh ygu ttong phe Ddng minh (ddndduldHoaKyvdAnh) len kg hogch cho mOt ttat tu tign te the gidl mdi nhdm ttdnh nhitng sai lam cua Versailles va thai ky giiia hai cudc chign ttanh thg gidi. Kg hogch ndy dupc xem xet Idn cudi tgi HOi nghi Bretton Woods a New Hamsphire vdo thdng 7-1944. Ket qud la mgt bO quy tdc, tigu chuan, the che dupc hinh thanh va dinh hudng cho he thdng tign te qudc te ttong ba thdp k^ sau dd - hg thdng Bretton Woods. Vdn hdnh ciia hg thdng Bretton Woods cdn ban dd tao ra mOt giai doan on dinh vg mat tien te, Iam phdt thdp, t^ le that nghiep thap, tang trudng kmh te cao va thu nhdp thi^ gia tdng. 6 hdu bet cdc khia cgnh, giai dogn ndy Id sir ddi ldp ciia giai doan Chien ttanh Tien te Ian tiiiil (1921-1936).
Dual he tiidng Bretton Woods, he thdng tien tg qudc tg dugc neo vdi vang thdng qua viec ddng dola My dugc tu do chuygn ddi qua vang bdi cdc ddi tdc thuang mgi vdi gia 35
LYLUAN CHiNH TR!-So10/2015
[ ^ QU6CTg
ddla/ounce, con nhiing ddng tign khdc gidn tigp dupc neo vdi vdng thdng qua cdc t^ gid hdi dodi c6 dinh so voi ddng ddia My. Vigc mdt sd qudc gia cu thg vay ngdn hgn ttong tnrong hc^
bi tham hyt thuang mai se dugc giai quygt bdi Quy Tien te qudc tg (IMF). Cac qudc gia chi cd thg phd gia ddng tign ciia nunh neu dugc IMF cho phdp vd digu dd thudng chi dugc dign ra trong trudng hpp tham hut thuang mgi dai ddng cOng vdi lam pbdt cao. Mdc dii dupc xem nhu mOt giao udc qudc te quan ttpng nhung cdu tiiic ciia he thdng Bretton Woods hdu nhu chl do nudc My dg ra vao thdi diem md siic mgnh qudn su va kinh tg cua My a ffinh cao so vdi todn thg gioi.
He thdng Bretton Woods dupc cho la bgn viing cho den nhiing ndm 70 ciia thg ky XX.
Song nhu mOt quy ludt tdt ygu ciia su van dOng, dn djnh chi mang tinh tuong ddi, mam mdng cua Chien ttanh tign te ldn ihii II dd dupc "kien tgo" ttong chinh su vdn ddng 6n dinh cua he thdng ndy vd "bigu lg" vdo khoang cudi thdp nign 60. Cugc chign tign te nay khoi ddu vdo nam 1967, sau khoang 2 nam Idi tuyen bd
"siing vdha" ciia Lyndon B. Johnson dupc phdt di (Sling tirpng tnmg cho cuOc chign o Viet Nam vd bo tugng trung cho cdc chuang trinh xa hOi "Great Society", bao gdm cuOc chign chdng ddi ngheo). Nudc My bdt ddu nhan thiic ro rdng ve su kiet qug ddn ddn cua ngudn tich tru siic mgnh kinh tg nOi dia va thien chi chinh tri ttgn binh dien qudc tg. Ddng thdi, cuOc khiing hodng ddng bdngAnh amy (1964) da tto nen sdi sue (1967) bdng vigc phd gia ddng tien chinh thiic dau tien kg tu hOi nghi Bretton Woods. Ngay 18-11-1967, ddng bang Anh chinh tinic bi phd gid 14,3% (tii 2,8 dola/bang Anh cdn 2,4 ddia/bang Anh). Nhiing bat dn ttong cdc vdn de tien te qudc tg lign tigp xay ra:
hang loat dpt phd gid, dinh gid lgi, lgm phat, quyen nit vdn dgc bigt (SDR), su sup dd cua London Gold Pool, hodn ddi tien tg, cdc khoan cho vay cua IMF, gid vdng hai ldp vd nhiing gidi phdp tinh tiigkhdc. Cung tiidl digm nay, nhieu khu vuc, nhieu ngn kmh tg hang ddu phdi ddi dign vol nhitng vdn dg chinh tri nOi bO xen lan nhiing tdc dOng manh me ciia sir thay ddi ciia khoa hpc - ky thuat - cdng nghg v.v.. Nhiing hign thyc tten deu true tiep hoac gidn tigp dugc bdt ngudn tii tham hut thuang mai vd lgm phdt.
Vi vay, vigc phd gid dong nOi te tr6 thanh ciiu cdnh ciia cac nen kinh te ma chii dgo trong cuOc chien nay la viec phd gia ddng dola, vi nd ddng nghia vol viec tdi dinh gid vdng theo gia dola voi chieu hudng di Ign.
Nam 1973, IMF tuygn b5 khai trii he thdng Bretton Woods, chinh thiic kgt thiic vai tto cua vang trong tdi chinh quoc tg va dg gid tri cua cdc ddng tien bign dOng 6 bat ky miic ndo md cdc Chinh phii hodc cdc thi truong mong mudn. MOt ky nguygn tien te niia ket thiic va mOt k^ nguyen khdc bdt ddu, nhimg cuOc chien tign te se con tdn tai mai bdi cuOc song vdn ludn van dOng vd cac c6 xe kinh te vdn diSn tign. Do vdy, nhan thiic rd ve cuOc chien tien tg ttgn cd phuang dign thuc tign Idn hgc thugt Id rdt cdn thigt.
Tir nhiing khdi lugc neu tten, cd thg higu rdng: Chign ttanh tign te la thudt ngii diing dg mo td hdnh dOng hg thdp gid tri nOi tg (hay cdn gpi la phd gid tien te), vdi ky vpng cdi thien tir±
hmh kinh te qudc gia ttgn nhieu phuang dien (cd Ipi cho ngdn sdch'", cd lpi cho doanh nghiep, ddc biet Id nhiing doanh nghiep cd vdn ddu tu nudc ngodi"^', lap lgi ttgr^ thdi can bdng cua cdn can vang Iai ddi hgn)... ttong dd, true tigp hudng den viec thuc ddy canh ttanh nhdm gidnh Ipi thg so vdi ddi thu.
LYLUAN CHfNHTR1-S610/2015
JI
Tuy nhien, tinh hmh kinh tg ndi chung, cdn can thuong mgi noi rigng dupc cai thien hay khdng qua phd gid tign te tiiy thudc vdo bigu ting gid ca va higu ling sd lupng cdi ndo ttOi hon. Vi vgy, hanh dOng nay ham chtia nhiing ygu td cd thg tgo ra nhiing kgt cue tan pha ddi vdl he thdng kinh te tiig gidl. He luy kmh tg di kgm vdi chien ttanh tign te la tdng trudng duih tte, lgm phdt, cdc bien phdp khdc khd vd hoang loan tdi chlnh. Cy the, gid tri ciia ddng tign c6 thg chdp cdnh hoac buy diet nen kinh te ciia mOt qudc gia. Ngu qud cao, nd se khign hdng xudt khdu ciia ddt nudc mdt tinh canh ttanh.
Ngu qua tiidp, nd se khign vigc nhdp khdu qud ddt do va cham ngdi cho ty Ig lgm phat cao.
Cung liic dd, su bien dOng gia trj ddng tien dOt nggt thudng tao ra hoang mang tten thi tnrong tigntg.
Nhu vay, Chign ttanh tign te id thudt ngii diing dg md td suphd gid tign tg dg canh ttanh, khi nhigu nudc cd gdng giam gid tri ddng tign ciia hp nhdm gidnh Ipi thg so vdi ddi thii. Ngu nhiing nudc cgnh tranh chii ddng can thigp vdo thi trudng vd phd gia ddng tien ciia hp thi mdt cuOc chign tien td se nd ra.
2. Nhirng tac dpng va hf luy cua chien tranh ti^n te
Thuc ti§n cho thay, ddng hanh vdi cdc cuOc chign tign te Id nhirng tac dOng trgn nhigu phuong dien ciia ddi sdng kinh te - chhih tri - xd hOi va he luy ciia nd Id nhiing "higm hpa" ma mpi qudc gia, khu vuc vd nhdn logi dgu khdng mudn phai ddi dien. Kgt qud ciia cuOc Chign ttanh tign te ldn thii nhdt la mOt ttong nhiing dgt suy thodi tdi tg nhdt cCia lich s6 thg gidl - dgi suy thodi. Ty lg thdt nghigp tang vpt va san xudt cdng nghiep syp do, tgo ra thdi k^ tdng ttudng til rdt ygu tdl dm. T^ lg thdt nghiep Ign tdi 25% - 30% 6 cdc nudc cdng nghigp phat trign; sdn
xudt 6 cdc nudc cdng nghiep phdt trign tiJt xudngmiic am 15% - 20%; oMy 11.000/25.000 ngan hang do vd^ ttong vong 2 tiiang gid tii ciia 50 tin tiudng chiing khodn chii ygu gidm 1/2;
kgo theo tigu diing gidm siit... dua tdl xdo dOng chinh tri - xd hOi: Chinh phii cac nudc tu bdn phdt tiign nhuMy, Anh, Phdp, Diic, Nhdt Ban...
dgu bi xdo ttOn (tgi My, ttong cudc suy thodi dd Dang Dan chu deu gidnh da sd 6 cd Thupng vien va Hg vien, tdng thdng thuOc Dang Ddn chu thay the tdng thdng ciia Dang COng hda), ddc biet quan phdtxit Dire va quan phigt Nhdt Ign ndm quygn, ddy the gidi vao cuOc Chign ttanh tiig gidi thti' 11'^'. Cdc ngn kinh tg ldn ttgn the gidl Cling chgy dua xudng vuc thdm, gay gian doan thirong mai, syt gidm san lupng va sinh ra ddi ngheo. Tinh ttgng bdp bdnh dd dd them ddu vdo liia cho cdc xu hudng cue doan vg chinh tri vdi nhiing hdu qud khdng thg rd rdng ban.
Bdi cdnh kinh tg, xd hgi thay ddi cimg nhiing tdc dOng tu xu the qudc tg hda, toan cdu hda vd phat trien mgnh me ciia khoa hgc - cdng nghe... da tgo ngn nhiing can nguygn ctia cudc Chien tign tg Idn tini hai (1967-1987) va he luy cua nd ciing la nhting con so dang phai quan tdm. Cy thg, toan bO thdi gian tir ndm 1967 den ndm 1971 dugc mo ta nhu mdt khoang thdi gian cua sy hdn logn vd bdt dn trong cac vdn dg tien te qudc te. Mac cho nhiing ky vgng vg tang trudng vd vigc lam xudt phat tir vigc phd gia ddng dola, nudc My vdn phai chiu dung them ba cudc suy thodi kmh tg tii nam 1973 dgn nam 1981. Tdng cOng sire mua cua ddng ddia tir nam 1977 dgn ndm 1981 gidm 50%. Gid ddu tdng gap bdn lan trong khodng thdi gian suy thoai tic ndm 1973 dgn nam 1975 va tiep tyc tdng gap ddi tii miic dd vao ndm 1979. Gid vdng thudng nien trung
LYLUAN CHlNH TR!" So 10/2015
^ 0U6CTE
binh tang tir 40,80 ddla/ounce (1971) len dgn 612,56 ddla/ounce (1980), ttong dd bao gdm mOt cii nhdy vgt ngdn ban len miic 850 ddla/ounce vdo thdng 1-1980. Ngn thdt nghiep vdn cdn cao ttong nhieu nam sau khi dpt suy thoai cudi cung trong ba dpt suy thodi kgt tiiiic vdo nam 1982. Tham hyt thuong mai 6 Diic va Nhgt Ban tdng Ign (do ddng ddia mgnh hon) da khign nguoi My mua xe hoi Diic vd dd dign tir Nhat Bdn cimg nhiing hang hda khdc, V.V..
Nhin tdng the nhiing he lyy tir CuOc chign tign tg Idn 2, James Rickards - tdc gid cudn sdch Chiin tranh tiin te: Cuoc khung hoang toan ciu kitiip dang thanh hinh da vigt: "Trong con mdt ciia nhieu ngudi, the gidi that sy tto ngn dien ddo. MOt thudt ngii mdi, "ffinh lgm, hay lam phdt dmh ddn (stagflation)", da dupc dimg de md ta su ket hpp chua timg xay ra giiia lgm phat cao vd tang truang tti trg d My. Con ac mOng kinh tg tii nam 1973 dgn nam 1981 la sy ddi lap hodn todn vdi su tdng tnrong bdng con dudng xudt khdu md hanh dOng pha gia ddng dola huong tdl. Nhiing dOng co cua phd gia da hodn todn pha san".
Nhu vgy, hau hgt cdc qudc gia deu tryc tiep hodc gian tigp ky vpng cai thien kmh te (ma trudc hgt Id siic cgnh tiranh ciia ngn kmh te) tii phd gia nOi te. Tuy nhien, dign tign thyc tifin qua 2 cudc chign tign te cung nhiing he lyy ciia nd da va dang buOc cdc qudc gia phai cdn ttpng khi dp dyng.
3. Mot so ddng thdi moi cua cuoc chiln ti^n tf Trong bdi canh toan cdu hda, mdi bign dOng kinh tg, chinh tri cua mOt qudc gia (nhdt Id nhiing qudc gia cd ngn kinh te mgnh) deu true tiep hogc gian tiep dnh hudng dgn van hanh kinh tg khu vyc va the gidi. Trudc dOng thai "manh tay" ciia Trung Qudc - giam sdc
4,6% t^ gid nhdn ddn tg/ddla My ttong 3 ngdy lidn tigp (11,12 vd 13-8-2015), dd Idm ddy Ien mdi Io nggi vg mOt cuOc chien ttanh tign te sg xdy ra khdng chi a pham vi chdu A ma cd the Ian ra todn cau. Khdng it cdc qudc gia, ttong do didn lunh Id My da ngay lap tiic len tigng cdnh bdo Trung Qudc khdng ngn rdi xa cam ket hudng tdi dp dung mOt gid ty gid hdi dodi tiieo quy ludt thi trudng. Ddng thdi, hdnh ddng pha gid ddng nOi tg ciia qudc gia ndy ciing ngay tiic thi cd nhiing tdc dOng dgn sy vgn hanh tign te ciia cdc nen kmh tg ttong khu vyc, cy the: tten thi trudng tien te, cac ddng tien ciia chau A nhu vira ttai qua "con ldc quet", ddng rupiah cua Inddnexia, ringgit ciia Malaixia, ddia Xmhgapo, dola Dai Loan vd peso ciia Philipin... ddng loat trugt ddc, khi co chung mdt mdi Io ngai ve siic cgnh ttanh xudt khdu ciia Tnmg Qudc se tang Ien, ddng thdi siic mua ciia nudc ndy se gidm di, anh hudng tryc tigp tdi boat dgng xudt - nhap khau cua cac nudc Idng gieng. Hanh dOng phd gid ddng nhan dan te (NDT) cua Trung Qudc dang ddt khu vuc va thg gidl trudc nhUng kich ban kmh te ddy nii ro, trong do xu hirdng chu dao nhgn dugc su thdng nhdt cao la sy "khoi mdo" mOt cuOc chien tign te mdi, mdt mat nhdm xoay chuygn tinh hinh kinh tg u dm ciia Trung Qudc ttong bdi canh khu vuc vd the gidl dang tdi cau tnic sau khiing hoang, mat khdc, nhdm xde Idp trdt ty kinh te the gidi mdi dua tren tuong quan sue manh kinh tg ma tien te la cdng cy thyc thi. Tuy nhidn, ngu nhin mOt cdch tdng thg thi cdn khd sdm dg dua ra nhdn dinh chinh thiic, song vdi nhiing ghi nhdn ttai chigu ve hdnh dOng ndy ciia Trung Qudc thi qudc gia nay dudng nhu dang cd nhiing toan tinh kinh tg, chinh tri khd ro ngt, cho dii tuyen bd eiia Ngdn hang nhdn ddn Tnmg Qudc nhdn
LYLUANCHfNHTRhSdlO/2015
JSJ
manh du trii ngoai hdi ciia nudc ndy dang d miic 3,65 nghm ty dola My vd can cdn vdng lai dang thgng du. Thuc tg digu hdnh chinh sach tign te cua qudc gia nay phan ndo phan dnh xu hudng digu ehinh chinh sdch phdt trien ndi chung, ma tru6c hgt la digu cbinh chinh sdch tigntg.
Trong thdi gian qua, gidl chtic Tnmg Qudc khdng ngimg van dOng hdnh lang dg IMF dua NDT vao rd tien te du trii cua td chtic nay, hay con gpi la Quygn nit von ddc biet, ma IMF dimg dg cho cdc qudc gia vay. Ddy sg Id mgt budc tign lon trong ke hogch qudc tg hoa ddng NDT cua Trung Qudc.
DOng thai pha gia NDT hudng tdl viec tiia ndi ty gid ttong thdi gian tdi ciing cho thdy mOt sy chuan hi cdn bdn cho nhiing thay ddi chinh sdch phdt trign ciia Trung Qude. Ty gja lmh hogt hon cd y nglua quan ttpng vdi nudc ndy bdi hp dang hudng tdi ttao cho thi truong vai ttd quygt dinh ttong nen kinh te vd nhanh chdng hda nhap vdo thi trudng tai chinh toan cau.
Cho du cat nghia hdnh dgng phd gid ddng NDT theo phuong dien nao thi ciing chiing to may vdn dg can ban sau: 1) Chinh phu Trung Qude dang chudn hi cho mOt sy thay ddi ttong chign liroc phdt trign ed tinh tdl xac lap mOt vi thg kinh tg, chinh tri mdi; 2) Phd gia ddng nOi te chi la bg ndi cua nhiing digu chinh mang tinh chign lugc, song chiing td nOi tgi nen kinh tg qudc gia ndy dang ham chiia nhiing van dg ygu cdu phdi cd su thay ddi; 3) Dil khong phai "lieu thudc" chiia bach bgnh cho cde nhd xudt khau dang dm yeu eua Trung Qudc dang chiu hau qua do gid nhdn cdng tang len, nhung phd gia ddng NDT se giiip gidm bdt dp luc gidm phdt, nhdm trdnh ldp Igi nguy ca gidm phdt md Nhdt Ban timg ganh chiu ttong nhigu nam...
Trud'c hanh ddng phd gia ddng NDT, mfii qudc gia ttong khu vyc va cac ngn kinh te co Uen quan dgu cd nhiing dOng thai nhdt dinh, cd thg tmh thg, c6 the du phong nhung dgu hudng dgn su dn dinh cdn thiet cho ddng nOi te cua qudc gia va dy Ueu iing phd vdl cdc tdc dpng hgn quan dgn edn cdn thuong mai. Trong dd, vol cdc ngn kinh te manh xudt khdu, vdn dg dupc cdn nhdc la tuong quan gid ca hang hda xudt khau hay ndi rOng hon Id siic cgnh ttanh cua hang hda xudt khdu; vdi cdc nen kinh te gdn nhigu vdi nhdp khdu thi vigc gia tang nhdp sigu, su phy thudc nhigu hon vao nen kinh tg xudt khdu Id van dg edn xem xdt. Theo dd, nhiing vdn dg vg kinh tg vi md vd an nmh kinh tg Id nhiing khia eanh ma cdc qudc gia nhu Viet Nam phai cdn ttpng D
(1) Tiic CO su chenh lech nhSt dinh giiia khoan thu ngan sach tinh ra dong npi tg, dong ngoai te va chi ngan sach tinh ra ddng ngoai tg.
(2) PhS gia noi te lam cho luong thuc te ciia nhiing nguoi lam cong an luong giam di, nhu v§y cung cd lpi cho cac doanh nghiep.
(3) Vu Khoan: Khung hoang kinh tetoan cau va mdt so vin di dat ra dii voi kinh ti ViBt Nam, http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn.
Tai Ueu tham Idiao:
1. http://www.niiiansongtra.com, Cao Minh: Ve
"cai chit" cua dong dola My".
2. http://www.thanhnien.com.vn, Cong Chlnh:
Hiim boa chiin tranh din te.
3. James Rickards: Chiin tranh tiin te: Cuoc khung hoangtoancaiiicefl'4'dang tftan/iftin/j, Nxb Tre, 2014.
4. Song Hongbinh: Chiin tranh tiin t$, Nxb Tre, 2008.
LfLUANCHfNHTR!-S6lO/2015
