TAI CHINH-TIEN TE
Tac dong tran cua chinh sach tien te Trung Quoc den Chau A va Viet Nam: tiep can b6ng BVAR
PHAM THI TUYET TRINH BUI THI THIEN MY LE PHAN AI NHAN
fai vie't phan tich inh hiidng tran cua chfnh sach tien te Trung Qud'c den cac nen kinh ' te'Chau A va Viet Nam bing each sd dung m6 hinh tii hoi quy vectd dng dung thdng ke Bayes (BVAR) trong giai doan sau khung hoang tai chfnh Ddng A; ke't qui cho thiy cu sdc chinh sach tien te Trung Quoc co inh hiidng de'n sin liidng va lam phat Chau A va Viit Nam nhitng vdi mdc do khac nhau. Tvt do, bai viet diia ra mgt so'ham y chfnh sach nham giam anh hddng ben ngoai de'n nen kinh te'trong niidc de co the chu dgng hdn trong dieu hanh kinh te.
Txi k h o a : Bayes VAR, kinh te'Chau A, chi'nh sach tien te, tac dgng tran, chfnh sach tien te Trung Qudc.
1. Gidi t h i e u
Trong nhflng nam g i n day, cac nghien cflu ve tac ddng t r a n cua chinh saeh tien td (CSTT) thu h u t sd quan t a m cua nhieu n h a nghien cflu cung nhfl n h a dieu h a n h ehinh sach. Sfl quan tam nay trd ndn m a n h me hdn ke tfl khung hoang tai chinh 2008, bdi cugc khung hoang da cho t h a y nhflng n e n kinh te nhd, chfla tham gia sau vao san chdi tai chinh toan cau v i n bi a n h hfldng do cd sfl hidn hflu ciia lien kd't thfldng mai. H a u hd't cac nghien cflu p h a n tich tac dgng t r a n ciia CSTT My hoac Lidn minh tien te Chau Au do quy md ldn cua cac thi trfldng nay va vai trd cua ddng ddla My va ddng Euro trdn thi trfldng qudc te' (Bauer va Neely, 2014; Chen va cgng sfl, 2014; Chen va cgng sfl, 2016; Garcia va Bolanos, 2017; Fratzscher va cdng sfl, 2017;
Bluwstein va Canova, 2016; Kucharcukova va cdng sfl, 2016; Hajek va Horvath, 2016;
Potjagailo, 2017). Ta't ca nghien cflu deu ehi ra rang da cd tac ddng t r a n ctia CSTT My va Chau Au den cac nfldc.
Trung Qud'e dfldc xem la d^u t a u tang trfldng kinh te cua Chau A thong qua cac md'i quan he kinh te cd quy md ldn. Dieu h a n h CSTT ciia Trung Qudc cd the cung qua cac
mdi quan he kinh te nay anh hfldng dd'n cac nen kinh te' Chau A. Tuy nhien, cac nghidn cflu ve tac ddng t r a n cua CSTT Trung Qud'c chti ye'u phan tich nhuiig anh hfldng tfl chu ky kinh te' Trung Qud'c dd'n eae nfldc khac (chang han, Eichengreen va edng sti, 2004; IMF, 2016). Mat khac, p h a n tich tac dgng tran tfl Trung Qud'c eung cd quan tam anh hfldng cua diin bid'n ty gia ddng Nhan dan te dd'n can can thfldng mai cua Trung Qud'c va cae nflde (Gou, 2017; Wang va Whalley, 2007). Nghidn cflu nay dfldc thiie hidn nhSm xem xet anh hfldng t r a n tfl CSTT Trung Qud'c nhfl mdt ddng gdp eho khoang trd'ng nghien eflu tren.
2. Cd sol ly t h u y e t v e t a c d o n g t r a n c u a c h i n h s a c h t i e n t e
2.1. Cdsd ly thuyet nin
Trong bdi canh hdi n h a p toan c^u, CSTT eua mdt nfldc khdng chi a n h hfldng de'n cac bie'n sd' vi md cua nfldc dd, ma cdn cd the a n h hfldng den cae nfldc khac, dae biet la cac nfldc Pham Th| TuyS't Trinh, TS.; B&i Tlii Thifin My, ThS.;
L€ Phan Ai Nhan, ThS., Tmcmg dai hgc Ngan hing TP.
H6 Chi Minh.
ma nd cd thid't lap q u a n hd thfldng mai - d a u tfl. CSTT cua mdt nfldc cd t h e tac ddng
NghiSn cOu Kinh tS'so 8(495) • Thing 8/2019 3 9
Tac dgng tran cua chinh sach ,
den nen kinh te' cua cae nflde khae chii ye'u thdng qua kenh ty gia, tong can va tai chfnh (Ammer va cdng sfl, 2016).
Xet kenh ty gia, d mdt quo'c gia vdi cd che' ty gia tha ndi hoan toan, trong dieu kien cac yd'u td khac khdng doi, CSTT ndi Idng lam giam lai suat trong nude trong tUdng quan vdi lai sua't nfldc ngoai, vi vay ddng ngi te cung giam gia. Kd't qua la sflc eanh t r a n h thiidng mai eua qud'c gia dd gia tang, xua't khau tang, nhap k h a u giam, can can thfldng mai dUdc cai thidn, t a n g trfldng kinh te dfldc thuc day. Cac nen kinh te' la dd'i tac thudng mai cung chiu a n h hfldng bdi CSTT ndi ldng nay, the hidn qua sii xa'u di ctia can can thUdng mai va sut giam tang trudng.
Trai lai, CSTT t h a t chat lam t a n g lai sua't trong nfldc, ddng ndi td t a n g gia, ed tac ddng tieu cflc dd'i vdi can can thfldng mai va san Ifldng cua qudc gia dd, trong khi gay tac ddng tich ctic dd'i vdi can can thfldng mai va san Ifldng ctia cac nen kinh te' la dd'i tac thfldng mai.
Xet kenh tdng cau, khi ngan h a n g t r u n g fldng d mdt qud'c gia thflc thi CSTT ndi long, tieu dung va dau tfl d qud'c gia nay gia tang, dieu nay khdng ehi cd tac dgng lam t a n g e i u dd'i vdi hang hda dfldc san xua't trong nfldc, ma cdn lam t a n g cau dd'i vdi h a n g hda nhap khau. Nhfl vay, t r a i vdi k e n h ty gia, kenh tong cau eho tha'y tac ddng tich cflc cua CSTT ndi long den nen kinh td' dd'i tac, lam tang xua't k h a u va qua dd thuc day t a n g trudng d eac nen kinh te nay. NgUde lai, CSTT t h a t chat lam giam t h u n h a p va chi tieu d qud'c gia dd, khid'n eau ddi vdi h a n g hoa ngi dia va n h a p k h a u deu giam, do dd anh hfldng tidu eflc dd'n hoat ddng xua't k h a u va san Ifldng d n e n kinh te dd'i tac.
Dd'i vdi kdnh tai chinh, CSTT ndi long ed tac ddng lam giam lai sua't va t a n g gia tai san d^nfldc sd tai. Khi dd, eac n h a dau tfl se chuyen dieh vd'n dau tfl sang cac tai san khae t h a y thd', bao gdm tai san d nfldc ngoai. Viec tai can bang danh mtic d l u tfl
nhfl vay se khie'n eho lai sua't d nfldc ngoai trd nen tha'p hdn, cdn gia tai san trd nen cao hdn so vdi trudc. Dieu kien tai chinh iidi long Itic nay kich thich gia t a n g tong cau^, dong thdi thuc day t a n g trfldng kinh te d nfldc ngoai. Trong khi dd, CSTT mgt nfldc t h a t chat lam t a n g lai sua't, giam gia tai san trong nflde va t h a t chat die'u kien tai chinh thdng qua tac dgng t a i can bang danh muc dau tfl. Dieu n a y d i n de'n nhflng tac ddng tfldng tfl va sfl t h a t c h a t cac dieu kien tai ehinh tUdng t u d nfldc ngoai, he qua la san lUdng d nfldc ngoai giam.
Tom lai, eac kdnh tac ddng t r a n cho tha'y nhflng tac dgng k h a c n h a u cua CSTT mgt niide dd'n n e n k i n h td' cac nfldc khae. Trong khi tae dgng ciia CSTT ndi long thdng qua kdnh ty gia bieu thi tac dgng chuyen dieh chi tieu, tflc tae dgng a m dd'n t a n g trfldng kinh td h nfldc ngoai, thi k e n h tdng cau va kenh tai chinh lai bieu thi tac dgng kich thich chi tieu, tflc tac ddng dfldng de'n tang trudng kinh te' b nfldc ngoai. Theo dd, anh hfldng t r a n tfl CSTT mgt nfldc de'n cac nfldc khac p h u thugc vao mflc do tac ddng thdng qua k e n h ty gia ldn hdn h a y nhd hdn so vdi tac dgng t h d n g q u a h a i k e n h edn lai.
2.2. Nghien cttu thUc nghiem H i u he't eac p h a n tieh ve tac ddng t r a n eua CSTT deu t a p t r u n g vao cac quyd't dinh chinh sach cua My (Bauer va Neely, 2014;
Chen va edng sti, 2014; Chen va cdng sti, 2016; Garcia va Bolanos, 2017; Fratzscher va cgng sfl, 2017), bdi vi My la nen kinh td' ldn nha't the' gidi xet theo quy md GDP la t r u n g tam ciia he thd'ng tai ehinh qud'c td'va ddla My la ddng tid'n dti trii qud'c td' pho bien nha't. Tfldng tfl, CSTT cua Ngan h a n g Trung fldng C h a u Au (ECB) ciing la dd'i tfldng ma eac nghidn ciiu quan tam (Bluwstein va Canova, 2016; Kucharcukova va cdng sfl 2016; Hajek va Horvath, 2016; Potjagailo!
2017). Sii d u n g cac d a n g khac n h a u eiia md hinh VAR nhfl GVAR, FAVAR hay BVAR cae nghien cflu deu ehi r a rang, <Ja c6 t a ' ddng t r a n cua CSTT tfl My va Chau Au dg'
40 NghiSn ciiu Kinh les68(495) • fh^.
Tac flong trdn cua chinh sdch
cac nfldc p h a t trien k h a c va ca cac t h i trfldng mdi nd'i l i n dang p h a t t r i e n .
Dd'i vdi trfldng hdp ciia T r u n g Qud'c, h a u he't eae nghien cflu chi t a p t r u n g vao tac ddng t r a n eua t a n g trfldng k i n h td' T r u n g Qud'c dd'n eac nen kinh td' khac (Eichengreen va edng sti, 2004; Furceri va cdng sfl, 2016).
Fureeri va cdng sfl (2016) cho tha'y: (i) san Ifldng toan c i u chiu a n h hfldng bdi nhflng bid'n ddng trong t a n g trfldng k i n h te' ciia Trung Qud'c, cae n e n k i n h te' C h a u A lang gieng cung nhfl cae n e n k i n h te' mdi ndi va t h u nhap tha'p chiu tac dgng t r a n m a n h hdn so vdi cae nfldc khac; (ii) do ldn eua tac ddng t r a n tfl Trung Qud'c gia t a n g ke tfl dau nhflng nam 2000; (iii) thfldng mai la kdnh truyen d i n chu ye'u tae ddng t r a n tfl Trung Qud'c sang eae n e n kinh te' k h a c . Trong khi dd, nghidn cflu ve tac dgng t r a n cua CSTT Trung Qud'c cdn k h a h a n chd', chu yeu la cac nghien cflu song phfldng, tflc tae dgng ciia CSTT T r u n g Qud'c de'n mdt nen kinh te' khac cd md'i lidn he m a t thid't.
Yang (2016) chflng m i n h r a n g , sua't sinh ldi va nhflng bie'n ddng trdn t h i trfldng chflng khoan My p h i n nao chiu a n h hfldng bdi nhflng t h a y ddi trong CSTT T r u n g Qud'c.
Samimi va cdng sfl (2019) n g h i e n cflu tae dgng cua cfl sd'c CSTT T r u n g Qud'c de'n cac bie'n so' vi md cua I r a n , mgt qud'c gia ma Trung Qud'c la mgt t r o n g nhflng dd'i tac
g(.e\E)r.f(E\el
Trong cdng thflc (1), g(e) la h a m m a t do xac sua't tidn nghidm cho t h a m so' 6; f(E 16) la ham mat do xac sua't cua t h d n g tin E tfl m i u vdi did'u kien tidn nghiem ve' 6, dflde ggi la ham hdp ly; g(e | E) la h a m m a t do xae sua't cua e vdi die'u kidn thdng tin m i u E, dfldc ggi la h a m m a t dd xac sua't h a u nghiem. Do vay, tid'p can BVAR t a p t r u n g chu ye'u vao vide dat r a p h a n phd'i tien nghiem cho t h a m so cua md hinh.
Md hinh BVAR tdng q u a t dfldc vid't dfldi dang:
thfldng mai ldn. Sti dung md hinh SVAR, ke't qua n g h i e n cflu cho tha'y, nhflng t h a y do'i trong CSTT T r u n g Qud'c a n h hfldng de'n ehi so' gia tieu d u n g (CPI), nhflng khdng a n h hfldng de'n cac bien so'kinh te'khae eua I r a n , bao gom G D P thiie, lai sua't va ty gia hdi doai thflc. Vi the', nghien cflu nay dfldc thtic hien n h a m xem xet tac ddng da phfldng, tflc a n h hfldng t r a n tfl CSTT Trung Qud'c dd'n cac nflde Chau A va Viet Nam nhfl mdt ddng gdp cho k h o a n g trd'ng nghidn cflu t r e n .
3. Phiftfng p h a p n g h i e n ciiu
3.1. Mo hinh vd gid thuyet nghien citu
Nghien cflu s^ d u n g md hinh tfl hdi quy vectd flng dting thd'ng kd Bayes (BVAR) dfldc p h a t trien bdi Doan va cgng sfl (1984) va L i t t e r m a n (1980, 1986). BVAR la mdt trong nhflng tid'p can phd bid'n dfldc sii diing de giai quye't va'n de da kich thfldc trong cac md hinh hoi quy. BVAR giai quye't v a n de nay theo hfldng t h u ggn khdng gian tham so' (he qua cua da kich thfldc) bang each dat r a h a m p h a n phd'i xac sua't tidn nghiem eho cac t h a m sd' d u a t r e n thdng tin khdng tfl m i u . Sau dd, t i n h toan h a m mat do xac sua't h a u nghidm cho cac t h a m so' cua md h i n h bang each ke't hdp p h a n phd'i tien nghiem va thdng tin m a u dflde p h a n a n h qua h a m hdp ly theo cdng thflc Bayes:
• 5 ( 8 ) (1)
Trong do, Yt la vectd ( n x l ) eua eac bie'n ndi sinh dflng; Zt \k vectd ( n x l ) bien ngoai sinh;
^ la vectd ( n x l ) eua h i n g so'; et la vectd (nXl) cua sai sd'cd p h a n phoi ddng nha't va dgc lap thda m a n : £j ~ ;V(0,.^nghia la sai so' n g i u n h i e n co p h a n phdi c h u a n n h i e u chieu vdi ky vgng b a n g 0 {E{E ) = C vdi mgi t) va ma t r a n hiep phfldng sai gifla eac sai so' n g i u nhidn la E{E.,SJ) = I\ A (i = 1, 2,..., p) la ma t r a n (nXn) he so' t h e hien tac dgng
NghiSn ciiu Kinh ^s68(495) - Thing 8/2019 4 1
Tac dong trdn cua chinh sdch .
eua cae gia tri trd; B la ma t r a n he sd' thd hien tac ddng eua cae bien ngoai sinh ldn bie'n ngi sinh.
Yt dUdc xay dflng theo tie'p can khd'i gdm 3 khd'i bid'n theo t r a t tfl: Trung Qud'e (en), Chau A (a) va Viet Nam (vn). Viet Nam dfldc tach lam mdt khd'i rieng vdi eac nfldc Chau A n h i m so s a n h p h a n flng cua Viet N a m vdi eae nfldc Chau A khac. Khd'i bie'n eua Trung Qud'c dfldc xay dflng gdm: san lUdng (y) va gia ca (p) dai dien eho muc tieu CSTT; eung tien (m2) dai didn cho t r a n g t h a i did'u kien tid'n te cua Ngan hang Trung fldng Trung Quo'c (PBC) do cung tid'n ^\i6c PBC dung lam m u e tieu t r u n g gian (Kamber va Mohanty, 2018; Gang, 2018);
lai sua't chuan (i) dai dien cho dieu h a n h CSTT cua PBC. Trung Qud'e sti dung nhieu edng cu de die'u h a n h CSTT (Egan v a Leddin, 2016); trong dd iai sua't c h u a n dflde PBC sii dung de xac dinh lai sua't tid'n giti va cho vay cua he thd'ng n g a n h a n g thfldng mai. So vdi cae edng eu khae, lai sua't dfldc PBC sii dung thfldng xuydn hdn. Trfldc day, kenh lai sua't khdng dflde xem la kenh truyen d i n quan trgng; t u y nhien cac nghien cflu g i n day da cho tha'y vai trd cua lai sua't ddi vdi did'u h a n h CSTT cua PBC ngay eang gia t a n g va ed ehd' truyd'n dan CSTT cua PBC dang ngay cang gid'ng vdi cac nfldc dang p h a t trien vdi vai trd chu dao eua kenh lai sua't (He va Wang, 2012;
Kamber va Mohanty, 2018).
Moi khd'i bid'n cua C h a u A va Viet Nam bao gdm san Ifldng (y) va gia ca (p) dai dien cho miic tieu cua CSTT v a bie'n lai sua't chinh sach (i) dai dien eho dieu h a n h CSTT.
Theo dd, vectd Yt d md h i n h cd b a n bao gdm 10 bie'n sd':
Yt = [(y'"t, p'"t, m2'"t, i="t), (y\ p%, i \ ) , (y™t, P™t, i™t)] (3)
Dd'i vdi bie'n ngoai sinh, nghien cflu dfla a n h hfldng khung hoang 2008 (c08) vao md hinh dfldi dang bie'n gia do nhflng bid'n dgng
ldn ctia k h u n g hoang da tao r a cac didm g^"
ca'u trtic trong didn bid'n ctia eac bien so trong he thdng BVAR dfldc xay dting- Theo dd, quan s a t n h a n gia t r i 1 trong giai doan khung hoang tfl n a m 2008 dd'n nam 2010 va n h a n gia tri 0 cho cac giai doan edn lai.
Anh hfldng t r a n ctia CSTT Trung Qudc den Chau A va Viet N a m dfldc lam sang to qua a n h hfldng cua cti sd'c lai sua't va cung tien PBC vdi h a i gia thuyet:
Gia thuye't 1: lai sua't PBC tang, CSTT t h a t chat se lam san Ifldng va lam phat Trung Qud'e giam; ngfldc lai, cung tie'n tang, CSTT md rdng se lam san Ifldng va lam p h a t T r u n g Qud'c tang; CSTT T r u n g Qud'c cd a n h hfldng dd'n nd'n k i n h te' tfldng tfl nhfl ly thuyet.
Gia thuye't 2: l a i sua't PBC/ cung tien PBC t a n g iam s a n Ifldng va lam p h a t Chau A va Viet N a m giam/ t a n g . Chieu hfldng tac ddng nay theo hfldng a n h hfldng qua kdnh tdng cau. T r u n g Qud'c cd chd' do t y gia cd kiem soat c h a t va hgi n h a p tai chinh chfla cao, do vay nghien cflu cho r a n g a n h hfldng t r a n tfl CSTT T r u n g Qud'c de'n C h a u A va Viet Nam qua k e n h tdng c i u se m a n h vfldt trgi cac kenh k h a c .
3.2. Phuang phdp udc lUpng
• Cac gia dinh tien nghiem
Cac gia dinh tidn nghidm cua md hinh (1) ap dat cac p h a n phd'i xac sua't tien nghiem len cac ma t r a n Ai (i = 1, 2, ..., p) va ma t r a n hidp phfldng sai E.
Md h i n h BVAR tdng q u a t (2) dflde vie't dfldi dang r u t ggn:
Y = AX^BZ^s (4)
Trong dd, y-^vyv-M-J-[h.h h], vdi^t=[^M y t - p . l l > = fel.£2 Ej^
va A = {A^.A^ A^,li la ^ g ^^^^
( n p + 1 ) X n chfla cac h e so' hdi quy ctia cae bid'n t r i va h a n g so'.
42 NghiSn cCfu Kinh ts so 8(495) - ThArig^^^
Tdc dgng trdn cua chinh sdch ,
Cae p h a n pho'i t i d n n g h i d m cho cac ma t r a n A, Bwk X thfldng dfldc c h g n s a o cho h a m m a t do x a e sua't t i e n n g h i e m va h a u n g h i e m cd cflng hg ( f a m i l y ) , ggi la hg lidn hdp tfl n h i e n t h d n g q u a h a m hdp ly. T r o n g n g h i e n cflu k i n h td', t a i
vec ( 4 ) I r - AT ( ^ o , X® Oc Trong dd, (Ao, ^Q , So, oco) dflde ggi la cac sieu t h a m sd' (hyperparameter).
• Tien nghiem cho ma trin A:
L i t t e r m a n (1980, 1986) de xua't mdt each chgn cac sidu t h a m so* cho m a t r a n A - ggi la tidn nghiem M i n n e s o t a (Minnesota prior). L i t t e r m a n eho r a n g cae bie'n ndi sinh cua md h i n h VAR t u a n t h e o bfldc n g i u nhien cd bui (random walk with drift):
5n.t = Mn + y-iut-i ^ £n.t (6)
Vdi cac gia dinh di kem bao gdm: (i) nhflng do trd gan se cung ca'p nhie'u thdng tin hdn nhflng do tre xa; (ii) do t r e cua bie'n ndi sinh ed a n h hfldng m a n h hdn de'n chinh nd so vdi sti a n h hfldng tfl trd cua cac bid'n ndi sinh khac.
Cac he so' trong cac ma t r a n Ai (i=l,...p) dfldc gia dinh ddc lap, p h a n phd'i c h u a n va cd cac moment dfldc xac dinh nhfl sau:
c h i n h sti dting BVAR vdi s a i so n g i u n h i e n l a n h i e u t r i n g G a u s s , m g t hg t i d n n g h i e m l i d n h g p tfl n h i e n thfldng dfldc sii d u n g cho {A, £) la p h a n phd'i c h u a n W i s h a r t dao ( n o r m a l i n v e r s e W i s h a r t d i s t r i b u t i o n ) :
) ; J - i l V ( S ( „ « o ) (5)
mim=\a
cic tniong hvp khic (7)f
Var[iA,)tj\T]=.
J^yi-JM
Trong dd, (Ai)ij la he so' cua bien y t r o n g phfldng t r i n h / t a i do t r e / 6 d i n h n g h i a (7), L i t t e r m a n (1986) de x u a t 5. = 1. Tuy nhien, nghien cflu chgn b, = 0,9 t h e o U t l o t va Roye (2010) vi eho r a n g cae b i e n ngi sinh khdng h o a n t o a n t u a n t h e o bfldc ngau nhien.
0 dinh nghia (8), y dfldc ggi la do c h a t tdng the cua tien nghiem. Nd'u 7 = 0 , qua
t r i n h VAR p h u t h u d e h o a n t o a n vao t h d n g t i n t i d n n g h i e m , dfl lieu m a u k h d n g ddng gdp v a i trd t r o n g q u a t r i n h p h a n t i c h md h i n h . Ngfldc lai, nd'u y ldn t h i kd't q u a h a u n g h i e m p h u t h u d e h o a n t o a n vao dfl l i e u . B a n b u r a (2010) de n g h i Y ndn dfldc chgn xet t r o n g tfldng q u a n vdi kich thfldc ciia he thd'ng BVAR. Do so' Ifldng bie'n t r o n g md h i n h BVAR eua n g h i e n cflu ra't ldn, xac d i n h gia t r i sidu t h a m so' y = 0,1 tfldng tti nhfl U t l o t va Royle (2010).
JV'J thfldng dfldc chgn la h a m p h a n r a dieu hda, / ^ J = t t h e h i e n mflc do p h a n t a n t h d n g t i n c u a bie'n t r e q u a n h gia t r i t i e n n g h i e m t r u n g b i n h la 0 (vdi do t r e ldn hdn 1). Theo gia d i n h trflc q u a n (i) cua L i t t e r m a n , / ^ ^ dfldc chgn sao cho phfldng s a i eua h e so" hdi quy t a i nhflng do trd ldn c a n g nhd. N g h i e n cflu chgn rf = 0.1 t h e o U t l o t va Royle (2010).
Wij 6 [0,1] (.j^^ i^igjj py t h e gia d i n h (ii)
eua L i t t e r m a n . Ty Id "/ t h e hien ty t r g n g k h a e n h a u ve' mflc do a n h hfldng t h o n g t i n eua b a c t r i *- cua bie'n ngi sinh V dd'i vdi bid'n ngi sinh ^i. Theo Litterman (1986), B a n b u r a (2010), n g h i e n eflu chgn S'l la s a i so' c h u a n c u a p h a n dfl t h u dfldc tfl md h i n h tii hdi quy ddn mdi bien ndi s i n h ^i t h e o bid'n trd vdi bac trd V , ddng thdi chgn ^U ~ ^'^ t h e o khuyd'n n g h i cua U t l o t va Royle (2010).
- TYSn nghiem cho ma tran B va ma tran Z'
Nghmn cOU Kmh t4s^8(495} - Thing 8/2019 43
Tdc dong trdn cua chinh sdch ,
Ma tran B dfldc chgn la khdng cd thdng tin tidn nghidm (non - informative prior).
Dd'i vdi ma t r a n L, dfldc gia dinh cd p h a n phd'i tidn n g h i e m W i s h a r t dao:
C~lH^C^i0.aiO). Gia dinh cac sai so n g i u nhien eiia qua trinh VAR la dde lap nhau.
Theo Caraiani (2010), Carriero va cgng sfl (2009), nghien cflu ehgn ^^)=AiaQ[0^,...,aj^
vdi ^i la phfldng sai cua p h a n dfl tfl md h i n h tfl hdi quy ddn cua mdi bie'n ndi sinh theo bid'n trd vdi bac trd p .
'Thu tuc lidc liidng va kiem dinh Tinh dflng cua cac chudi bid'n so' dfldc kiem dinh b a n g phfldng p h a p Kickey Fuller tdng hdp (ADF) va Phillip Perron (PP). Ke't qua kiem dinh tfl h a i phfldng p h a p cho phep nghien cflu dfla r a cac n h a n dinh ehinh xac hdn ve tinh dflng ciia bid'n sd.
Bac t r i td'i flu ciia md h i n h BVAR dfldc liia chgn dtia vao c h u a n t h d n g tin. Mac du BVAR khdng phti thudc vao so'Ifldng bac tti do, nghien eflu gidi h a n so' Ifldng bac trd la 4 do cac bac tre xa hdn thfldng khdng cd y nghia thd'ng kd. Ngoai ra, so Ifldng nghiem phfldng t r i n h dac trflng ldn dd vi p h a m gia dinh dflng cua p h a n tii hdi quy.
BANG 1: T i n h
3.3. Dd lieu nghien cdu vd tinh toan bien sd
Cac bie'n s d sii dting cho fldc Ifldng dfldc dinh nghia va ed n g u d n t r o n g bang 1^_ '^^^
vdi T r u n g Qud'c va Viet Nam, cac bien so dfldc t h u t h a p trflc tie'p. Dd'i vdi cac nfldc Chau A, tflng bie'n dfldc t i n h la t r u n g binh cd trgng sd' ciia cac nfldc Chau A (^^°"^S bao gdm Viet N a m ) vdi trgng sd cua mdi nfldc la ty t r g n g thfldng mai trong giai doan nghien cflu. Vi dti, t a n g trfldng san Ifldng C h a u A dfldc t i n h la t r u n g binh cua t a n g trfldng san Ifldng eae nfldc Chau A t r o n g n g h i e n cflu t h e o t r g n g so thfldng mai. Nghidn eflu sii d u n g t r g n g so'thfldng m a i la t o n g xua't n h a p k h a u cua tflng nfldc vdi ta't ca cac dd'i t a c chfl k h d n g p h a i thfldng m a i vdi T r u n g Quoc. Cach t i n h t o a n n a y n h i m p h a n a n h sfl lien he l i n n h a u gifla cac n e n k i n h td' t r o n g k h u vflc do sfl t h a y ddi c u a n e n k i n h td' cd lflu e h u y e n thfldng m a i ldn cd t h e a n h hfldng d e n cac n e n k i n h t e k h a c . T h e o dd, a n h hfldng ciia CSTT T r u n g Qud'c cd thd' t r i n dd'n nhflng n i n k i n h te' cd l i e n ke't thfldng m a i k h d n g cao vdi T r u n g Qud'c nhflng cd lidn kd't thfldng m a i ldn vdi nhflng nflde la dd'i tac ldn eiia T r u n g Quoc.
t o a n b i e n so'
K J MSu bifti y P m2
i
Tftnbifin San lircmg Giaca Cung tiln Lai suJit C y i T
Doltifmg
Tang tnicmg san lucmg so voi ciing ky nam tru6c Lam phat so v6i c&ng ky nam tnr6c Tang trucmg cung tien so voi ciing kj' nam tnl6c Lai sua't ti'nh theo nam
Ngudn ARIC(2019) rFS(2019) IFS(2019) NHTW cic nudc Ngu6n:Tm\i toan cuat^c gia.
Cac ni(6c Chau A trong nghien cilu gom Hong Kong (HK), An Do (IN), Indonexia (ID), N h a t Ban (JP), H a n Quoc (KR), Malaixia (MA), Philipin (PH), Xingapo (SG), Dai Loan (TW), Thai L a n (TH) va Vi6t Nam (VN). Cac nvf6c nay chiem t r u n g binh 80%
gia tri t h a o n g m a i h a i chieu cua T r u n g Quoc v6i C h a u A va chie'm gan n h u t u y e t doi h miic 9 8 % F D I T r u n g Quoc vdi Chau A h a n g n a m .
Dii lieu cho n g h i e n cflu co t i n suft quy trong giai doan 2002(1)-2018(3) duoc t h u
44 t^ghin diu Kinh iSsS8(495) - Thiri^s^^
Tac dong trdn cua chinh sdch ,
thap tfl ba loai ngudn: (i) t a n g t n i d n g san Ifldng thflc dfldc t h u t h a p tfl T r u n g t a m Hgi nhap khu vflc Chau A (ARIC, 2019); (ii) lam phat, cung tien dfldc t h u t h a p tfl Tho'ng ke Tai chinh qud'c te (IFS, 2019); (iii) lai
sua't chinh saeh eiia cac n g a n h a n g t r u n g fldng dfldc la'y tfl cdng bd'tren t r a n g web cac n g a n h a n g t r u n g fldng. Cae lai sua't dieu h a n h dflde la'y va ngudn cac ngan h a n g t r u n g fldng dfldc liet ke ehi tid't trong bang 2.
BANG 2; Lai s u a t c h i n h s a c h n g a n h a n g t r u n g ifdng c a c ni^drc sii d u n g t r o n g n g h i e n citu Nudc
CN HK TN ID JP KR MA SG PH TW TH VN
Lai su^t chmh sich Lai suSit c h u ^ Lai suSt CO ban Lai suli't repo Lai suSi't repo 7 ngay Lai su^t chiS't kh^u Lai su€t CO ban Lai suflit qua dgm Lai su^t chinh sich Lai sud't mua lai dao qua d£m Lai sufCt chie't kh£u Lai suSil chinh s£ch Lai suSt tai chiet k h &
Ngudn IFS (2019)
HongKong Monetary Authority (2019) Central bank of India (2019) Bank Sentral Republik Indonesia (2019) Bank of Japan (2019)
IFS (2019)
Bank of Negara Malaysia (2019) Monetary Authority of Singapore (2019) B Banko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (2019) (Central bank of the republic of China (2019) Bank of Thailand (2019)
Ngan hang Nha nu6c Vifit Nam (2019) Ngu6n:T6ng hgp ciia tac gia.
4. K e t q u a n g h i e n ciJtu nfldc. J P ed t r g n g sd' thfldng mai ldn nha't, 4.1. Bdc diem thong ke dU lieu chid'm 25%, ke' de'n la KR, HK, SG d mflc Bang 3 cho bid't t r g n g so' cac nfldc de trdn 10%, eac nfldc cdn lai ed t r g n g so'nhd tinh toan bien so' ctia C h a u A va n h d m hdn 10%.
BANG 3: T r o n g s o c a c n h o m nifdc t h e o d a c Noite
HK IN ID JP KR
Trpng s6 0,14 0,08 0,04 0,25 0.15
NmSc MA PH SG TW TH
d i e m Trong stf
0,06 0,02 0,11 0,09 0,06 Ngudn: Nhom tdc gia.
B a n g 4 torn t a t k e t q u a k i e m d i n h p h a p k i e m d i n h A D F va P P . Cac chuoi y, nghiem don vi cua cac chuSi b a n g p h i i o n g p, m2, i, c u a T r u n g Quoc, C h a u A va Viet
Wgh/gn ctiu Kmh ti5^8(495) • Thing 8/2019 45
T^c fldng trJIn cua chinh sich ,
N a m tieu tiitng t h e o A D F va P P 3 cac mile y n g h i a k h a c n h a u trii mot so' trtiong hop s a u ; p™, i'° k h o n g tiling theo P P n h u n g tiCfng theo ADF; y'" k h o n g tJiJng theo
A D F n h u n g tiling t h e o P P b miic y n g h i a 10%. N h u vay, cac chuSi bie'n cho liSc luong tieu tiiSng it nha't t h e o m6t kiem tlinh, phii hi3p cho u6c lUdng bang BVAR.
BANG 4: K e t q u a k i e m d i n h n g h NiHSt:/nh6m
Trung Qut;Ic."
Viet Nam'™
tli3u A:*
Ki^mdinh ADF
PP ADF
PP ADF
PP
y '-2,55*
'-2,52*
-1,95 -2,50*
- 5 , 6 6 * "
-3,60»»»
e m dotn vi P -2.37 -3,04»»
-2,71*
-2,06 - 4 , 1 6 « "
-2,57*
b a n g A D F v a P P m2 -5,69***
-5,83»«*
•
-3,06«»
-3.14**
-3,07**
-2,39
•-1,70*
•-1,58*
': phuong trinh khfing co hang s6' v^ xu huong;': phuong trinh co hSng s
***,**, * cho bie't miic y nghia 6 I % , 5 % va 10%.
NguSn.-Tinh. loan cua t^c gia.
vS xu htrdng
4.2. Tdc dgng cda CSTT Trung Qudc de'n nen kinh te'Trung Quo'c Hinh 1 cho tha'y CSTT t h a t chat bang sfl t a n g len etia 1% lai sua't PBC lam cho san Ifldng bat dau giam ro r e t va m a n h nha't d mflc 0,09% vao quy thfl 3 va thfl 4 sau cu sd'e, sau dd giam nhe hdn va dflng p h a n flng
d quy thfl 8 vdi mflc giam cdng ddn la 0,37%
so vdi trfldc khi cd cu sd'c. Cham hdn so vdi p h a n flng ciia san Ifldng, lam p h a t b a t d^u giam rd ret tfl quy thfl 4, mflc giam manh nha't la 0,08% d quy thfl 6 va dflng phan flng tfl quy thfl 12, mflc giam cgng ddn la 0,34%.
HINH 1: P h a n Ofng ciia s a n liTdng v a l a m p h a t T r u n g Quo'c v d i c u s o c l a i s u a t
Phin iing cua f vdi cu soc Phin iing cua jf v6i cu soc Phin ting cua f vdi cti soc
f fn ^
A^i/(5/j;Nh6in tic gii.
Trong trUcIng htjp CSTT m^ rong (hinh tiau t a n g len til quy thii 2 i mtJc 0,06%
2), cung tien t a n g 1% lam san lugng b i t t a n g cao nha't vao quy thfl 3 i mflc 0,08%
46 NghiSn cilu Kinh tSsS 8(495) - T J i i J ^ J J ^
T^c fldng trdn cua chinh sdch ...
sau dd mflc t a n g giam d a n va k h d n g cdn dang ke tfl quy thfl 6, tong mflc t a n g cua san Ifldng so vdi trfldc k h i c6 cu sd'c la 0,33%. Lam p h a t cung t a n g nhflng c h a m hdn phan flng cua san Ifldng. L a m p h a t b a t dau t a n g rd r a n g tfl qui thfl 3 d mfle 0,026%, tang m a n h nha't d mflc 0,04% vao
qui thfl 5 va k h d n g cdn p h a n flng dang ke tfl qui thfl 10 khi da d a t mflc t a n g edng ddn 0,25%. P h a n flng cua san Ifldng va lam p h a t vdi cu sd'c cung tien n h a n h hdn va ke't thuc sdm hdn so vdi cu soc lai sua't do cung tien la muc tieu t r u n g gian trong khi lai s u a t chinh sach la cdng cu dieu h a n h . HINH 2: P h a n iifng c u a s a n Itftfng v a l a m p h a t T r u n g Q u o c v d i c u soc c u n g t i e n
PhiDiingckf v6icus6cmr Phkhgchf vdicusocmT Phanhgcmn^vdicnsocmT
I 4 6 8 10 12 14 1S 1B 20
NguSmTkih to5n cua lic gia.
P h a n flng cua n i n k i n h t e T r u n g Quo'c vdi nhflng t h a y doi ciia dieu h a n h t i e n t6 la phfl hdp vdi ly thuye't, t r o n g dd p h a n flng cham hdn ctia lam p h a t so vdi s a n Ifldng thfldng tha'y t a i h i u he't cac n e n kinh te do sfl cflng n h a c cua gia. Ve thdi gian, dieu h a n h tien te cua PBC cd tac ddng den n^n kinh t e t r o n g vdng 3 n a m , tuy nhien n a m thfl 3 chi cdn nhflng p h a n flng r a t nhe cua lam p h a t . Kd't q u a n a y cung dfldc n h i e u n g h i e n cflu trfldc ghi n h a n . Kamber va M o h a n t y (2018) cho tha'y, p h a n flng cua san Ifldng va lam p h a t Trung Qudc vdi cu sd'c CSTT la t r o n g vdng lan Ifldt 1 n a m va 2,5 n a m . F e r n a l va cgng sfl (2014) cho tha^y, a n h hfldng cua cac cdng cu CSTT T r u n g Qud'c de'n n e n k i n h te thflc la trong vdng 2 n a m .
D i l n b i l n CSTT T r u n g Quoc va t a n g trfldng san Ifldng, l^m p h a t t r o n g giai doan nghien ctiu cho tha'y rd v a i trd ctia CSTT
dd'i vdi d i l n Men t a n g trfldng va lam p h a t T r u n g Qud'c (hinh 3). Sau k h u n g h o a n g tai chinh C h a u A, T r u n g Qud'e duy t r i md rgng tien te n h a m hd trd cho chu ky t a n g trfldng mdi p h a n a n h q u a lai sua't giam tha'p, t a n g trfldng cung t i e n d mflc cao, dinh diem la 20,8% vao n a m 2003. Lam p h a t t a n g len 5,16% vao gifla n a m 2004 bugc PBC p h a i t h a n t r g n g hdn vdi nhflng a n h hfldng cua cung tien. PBC da t a n g m a n h lai sua't vao cud'i 2004, t a n g trfldng cung tien theo dd giam xud'ng 12,9% vao d a u n a m 2005. Lam p h a t d a n giam va dao dgng trong k h o a n g 1-2% tao dieu k i e n cho PBC duy t r i lai sua't d'n d i n h va tie'p tuc t a n g trfldng cung tien q u a n h mflc 16,5-19% hd trd cho t a n g trfldng de'n he't n a m 2007. Nhfl vay, CSTT md rgng dfldc PBC duy t r i tfl sau k h u n g h o a n g dd'n 2007, n h d vay, T r u n g Qud'c da cd giai doan t a n g trfldng a'n tfldng, cao each biet so vdi cac nfldc C h a u A ndi rieng
'N^iSn cAi Kinh lSs6 8(495) • Thing 8/2019 47
Tdc fldng trdn ciia chinh sdch ...
va the gidi ndi chung, t r o n g dd, t a n g trfldng cao nha't la n a m 2007.
HINH 3: D i e n b i e n l a i sua't, c u n g t i e n , s a n Itftfng v a l a m p h a t T r u n g Q u d c
30 - 25 - 2 0 - IS - IO - 5 - O -
0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5
1-
0 6 07 OS icn -^—
09 IO 1i 12 - '^^''" — — i«="
1 3
^^_
14 15 P<=n 1
1 6 1 7 - 4.0
-3.8 - 3.6 -3.4 -3.2 - 3 O - 2.S
1 S
True trai: i'"; true phai: m2'", y"", p™
A^^odn; IFS (2019).
Khi ap ItJc lam p h a t x u a t hien trd lai vao gifla n a m 2007, PBC da tflng bfldc t a n g lai sua't. Ap Iflc lam p h a t khdng giam budc PBC chuyen hfldng t h a t c h a t tien te m a n h me vao dau 2008, p h a n a n h qua sti t a n g cao cua lai sua't, t a n g trfldng cung tien cung giam dfldi 16%. N h a n tha'y a n h hfldng cua k h u n g hoang tai chinh da lan den n e n k i n h td' vao gifla 2008, PBC n h a n h chdng dao chieu chi'nh sach, lai sua't giam m a n h , t a n g trfldng cung tien len mflc cao nha't trong ca giai doan d mflc 30%. Sau k h u n g hoang, CSTT v i n dfldc duy t r i md rgng nhflng d mflc khdng ldn nhfl trong giai doan k h u n g hoang, lai sua't t a n g d i n do ap Itic lam p h a t tfl nhflng chinh sach chd'ng khiing h o a n g m a n h me trfldc dd. Khi lam p h a t dfldc kiem soat tfl nam 2012, lai sua't mgt lan nfla dfldc d i l u chinh giam de ho trd t a n g trfldng.
Tuy nhien, do t a n g trfldng kinh te cd da'u hieu cham lai dang k^, PBC da ehieu chinh giam m a n h lai sua't tfl n a m 2016.
4.3. Tdc dgng trdn cua CSTT Trung Quoc den Chdu A vd Viet Nam P h a n flng cua san Ifldng va lam p h a t Chau A va Viet Nam vdi eu sd'c t a n g 1% lai sua't va eung tien PBC dfldc t r i n h bay t r o n g
h i n h 4 va h i n h 5. Ve thdi gian, ca Chdu A va Viet N a m d e u chiu a n h hfldng t r a n cua cti sd'c CSTT T r u n g Qud'c trong 3 nam tfldng tfl nhfl T r u n g Qud'c. Ve mflc dd, anh hfldng t r a n cua CSTT T r u n g Qud'c de'n Chau A va Viet N a m lai k h a e n h a u . San Ifldng C h a u A va Viet N a m cung co phan flng tfldng tfl nhfl s a n Ifldng T r u n g Qud'c nhflng d mflc do ye'u hdn; t r o n g do, phan flng cua san Ifldng C h a u A vdi cu sd'c CSTT T r u n g Qud'c m a n h hdn so vdi p h a n flng eua san Ifldng Viet N a m . Khi PBC t a n g 1% lai sua't, san Ifldng C h a u A giam m a n h nha't 0,08% d quy thfl tfl, s a n Ifldng Vidt Nam chi giam 0,04% cung d qu;^ nay. Tflong tfl, PBC t a n g 1% cung tien lam san Ifldng C h a u A t a n g m a n h tfl quy thfl h a i cd tdng mflc t a n g la 0,3% s a u 8 quy. San Ifldng Viet Nam t a n g cham hdn tfl quy thfl ba, dong thdi mflc t a n g sau 8 ra't chiing mflc d 0,03%.
Ngfldc lai, lam p h a t eae nfldc Chau A p h a n flng yd'u hdn vdi CSTT Trung Qud'c trong k h i lam p h a t Viet N a m lai p h a n flng m a n h . PBC t a n g 1% Iai sua't lam iai sua't Chau A giam tfl quy thfl n a m va td'ng mflc gj^m 0,13% sau 13 quy; lam p h a t Viet Nam cflng b a t d a u giam tfl quy thfl n a m va giam td'ng
4 8 NghiSn cOu Kinh ^s68(495) - T h i j ^ ^ ^ ^
lie aang trin cua chinh sach ...
epng 0,27% sau 13 quy. Cung tien PBC dat miic can bang mdi iSn ladt tang 0,27%
tang 1% lam lam phat Chau A va Viet Nam va 0,76% sau 13 quy.
HINH 4: Phan iiftig ciia san lifting Chau A va Viet Nam vffi cu soc l a suat va cung tiln Trung Quoc
Pbaniingcuafvttaisdcr Phan ling cua ^ v6i cu soc f Phan ling cia f v6i cil soc f
Phin ling cia f v6i ai sdc ttiT Phan ling cia f vdi cu sdc nUT Phan ling cia f v6i cu sdc mZ'
2 4 « e 10 12 14 4 E B ig I I 14 IE 18
Ngu6n:T\r^ loan cua tac gia.
HINH 5: Phan flng cua 1am phat Chau A va Viet Nam vcli cu soic lai sual va cung tien Trung Quoc Phan ling cua iT vdi cu sdc Phan uCng cua jf vdi cu soc Phan dng cua JD™ vdi cu
r f" so'cf"
Phan dng eua ff vdi cii sd'c Phdn dng cua p" vdi cu soc
mZ" mZ'
Phan dng cua jP™ vdi cu sdcmZ'
E IE 11 14 IE I I
NguSn: Ti'nh todn cua tac gia.
Ngfi'iin cDU Kinh If 3^8(495) - TTlAig 8/20t9 49
Tac fldng trdn cua chinh sdch .
Nhfl vay, Chau A va Viet N a m deu chiu a n h hfldng t r a n tfl CSTT T r u n g Qud'e. Ve mflc do, a n h hfldng ciia CSTT T r u n g Qud'c de'n Chau A va Viet Nam ye'u hdn so vdi a n h hudng de'n ehinh n e n k i n h te T r u n g Qud'e. Dieu nay la p h u hgp do ehi cd k h u vflc kinh te dd'i ngoai ciia Chau A va Viet Nam chiu a n h h u d n g trtic tiep. Chieu hfldng p h a n flng cho tha'y, k e n h tong cau dfldng n h u dang vugt trdi so vdi cae kenh khae trong tae ddng nay, do kinh te Chau A va Viet Nam p h a n flng tfldng ddng vdi kinh te Trung Qud'c dfldi a n h hfldng tien te cua PBC. Dieu dac biet la p h a n flng ctia Chau A va Viet Nam vdi CSTT T r u n g Qud'c khdng nhfl n h a u , san Ifldng Chau A p h a n flng m a n h hdn s a n Ifldng Viet Nam, nhflng lam p h a t Chau A lai p h a n flng ye'u hdn lam p h a t Viet N a m .
Khac biet trong p h a n flng eua san Ifldng cd t h e dfldc giai thich tfl sti k h a c n h a u cua Chau A va Viet Nam t r o n g q u a n he thfldng mai va FDI vdi T r u n g Qud'c. Sti t a n g len cua san Ifldng T r u n g Qud'e khdng a n h hfldng m a n h de'n s a n Ifldng Viet N a m (nhfl
Chau A), do T r u n g Quoc khdng phai la thi trfldng xua't k h a u c h i n h ye'u ctia Viet Nam va eung khong p h a i la n h a d l u tfl FDI ldn t a i Viet N a m . T r o n g k h i dd, Trung Qud'c la t h i trfldng xua't k h a u ldn nha't cua C h a u A va Chau A ciing ehie'm ty trgng ldn FDI r a nflde ngoai tfl T r u n g Qud'c (bang 5 va b a n g 6). Nhflng FDI n a y t a p t r u n g chu yeu vao linh vtic n a n g Ifldng va h a n g nhien nguyen lieu thd cd d l u r a q u a y trd lai Trung Quo'c qua dfldng n h a p k h a u de dap flng cho n h u cau t r o n g nfldc (Mwase va edng sti, 2016).
Thay doi tong eau T r u n g Qud'c do vay lam san Ifldng cac nflde C h a u A chiu a n h hfldng ldn hdn so vdi Viet N a m . Dd'i vdi lam phat, Viet N a m chiu a n h hfldng t r a n m a n h tfl CSTT T r u n g Qud'c hdn C h a u A la do ty trgng r a t ldn h a n g n h a p k h a u T r u n g Quoc t r o n g cd ca'u n h a p k h a u eua Viet Nam (bang 7). 0 diem n a y , trfldng hdp eua Viet N a m k h a tfldng dong vdi I r a n . S a m i m i va cdng sfl (2018) cho t h a y md r d n g tien te T r u n g Qud'c cd a n h hfldng de'n lam phat I r a n nhflng k h d n g a n h hfldng den san Ifldng I r a n .
B A N G 5: Ty t r o n g x u a t n h a p k h a u e u a T r u n g Qud'c vdi C h a u A v a V i e t N a m (%)
XuAkhJu Thg gidi (trieu USD) Ty trong Chau A (so v6i thS gidi) Ty trong Asial I (so v6i Chau A) Ty trpng Viet Nam (so V(ii Asial 1) Nhap khdu
The gidi (Trieu USD) Ty trong Chau A (so v6i thtf gi6i) Ty Irong Asial 1 (so v6i Chau A) Ty trong Viet Nam (so vdi Asial 1)
2002
325.600 52.32 81,68 1,54
295.no MAT 71,25 0,82
2005
761.950 48,09 88,10 1,75
659.950 66.90 78,91 0,73
2008
1.430.690 46,42 82,68 2,75
1.132.560 62,04 73,35 0,84
2013
2.209.000 51.34 83,30 5,14
1.914.990 56,92 66,99 2,31
2017
2.263.370 48,44 81,63 8,00
1.847.390 55,76 72.94 6,70 NguSn: Cue ThSng ke quSc gia Tmng QuSc (2019),
50 NghUn cilu Kinh ISsS8(495) - TTiiJSSTJ
Tac atng Iran cua chinh sach
BANG Xuatkhllu
TtSgiSi (Iriiu USD) Trong do Asial 1 Trong do Trung Quoc Nhapkhflu
ThSgiSi(lrituUSD) Trong d6 A s i a n Trong &6 Trung C^id'c
?: Cd cau xua't nhap kh
2002 16.706 46,79
9,09 19.746 77,15 10,93
2005 32.447
45,38 9.95 36.761
78,14 16,05
au cua Viet Nam
2008 62.685 42,10
7,74 8 0 7 1 4
78,74 19,79
2013 132.031
43,23 9,98 132.031
76,41 25,52
2017 214.010
46,12 16,57 211.101
78,76 27,58 NguSn: T6ng cue Th6ng ke Vifit Nam (2019).
BANG 7: CoT c a u F D I T r u n g Q u o c t h e o d o i t a c
FDI vio ThSgiSi (trieu USD) Chau A (so v6i thtf gidi) Asial 1 (so v6i Chau A) Viet Nam (so v6i A s i a l l ) FDIta
ThSgiSi (trieu USD) Chau A (so viii th^ gidi) Asial 1 (so vdi Chau A) Viet Nam (so vdi Asial 1)
2002
52.743 61,75 98,18 0,01
2005
60.630 62,05 97,68 0,00
5.497 35,68 93,34 0,51
2008
92.395 60,98 97,46 0,00
55.907 77,89 93,43 0,29
2013
117.5S6 80,51 99,09 0,00
107.843 70,11 90,42 0,70
2017
131.035 83.33 99,28 0.00
158.288 69,52 93,03 0,75 NguSn: Cue Th6ng k^ qufi'c
Hinh 6 cho tha'y t h e m dien bien tfldng dong cao cua t a n g trfldng s a n Ifldng va lam phat cua Trung Qud'c, C h a u A va Viet N a m trong giai doan nghien cflu va mdt p h i n nguydn nhSn la do a n h hfldng t r a n tfl CSTT Trung Quoc. T a n g trfldng s a n Ifldng va lam p h a t cua cac nfldc dien bie'n tfldng d^ng vdi 3 giai doan. Sau k h u n g h o a n g HINH 6: Dien b i e n l a m p h a t v a t a n g t n f d n g
gia Tmng QuSe (2019).
1997, C h a u A bfldc thdi ky t a n g trfldng trd Iai, lam p h a t eung dan t a n g len. Thdi ky n a y cha'm dflt vao n a m 2008 do a n h hfldng cua khiing h o a n g t a i ehinh toan e l u . S a u k h u n g h o a n g 2008, cae nfldc bfldc vao giai doan t a n g trfldng mdi vdi td'c do cham hdn so vdi trfldc, dong thdi lam p h a t cung d mflc tha'p hdn.
Ivtdng T r u n g Quoc, C h a u A v a Viet N a m
NguSn:Twg tnicmg san luong (ARIC, 2019); Lam phdt (IFS; 2019).
Nfl/i/Sn cOU Kinh tSs68(495) - Th6ng 8/2019 5 1
Tac flong tran cua chinh sach
5. K e t l u a n v a h a m y c h i n h s a c h Nghien cflu p h a n tich tac ddng t r a n ciia CSTT Trung Qud'c de'n eac nen kinh te Chau A va Viet Nam b a n g each sfl diing md hinh BVAR eho dfl lieu 11 nen kinh te Chau A (bao gdm Viet Nam) trong giai doan sau k h u n g hoang tai ehinh Ddng A.
CSTT Trung Quoc cd ehieu hfldng a n h hfldng den nen kinh te Trung Qud'c nhii ly thuyet: t h a t chat tien te lam san Iflgng va lam p h a t giam; md rdng tien te lam san Ifldng va lam phat tang. Ve thdi gian, tae dgng eua CSTT de'n nen kinh te Trung Qud'c la trong vdng 3 nam. Dieu h a n h tien te do vay la mdt trong nhflng ye'u to' a n h hfldng de'n tinh t r a n g cua nen kinh te.
Anh hfldng ciia CSTT Trung Quo'c de'n Chau A va Viet Nam tfldng tfl nhfl vay nhflng d mfle do yeu hdn. Quan trgng hdn, tac ddng cua CSTT Trung Qud'c de'n Chau A va Viet Nam la khac n h a u . T r u n g Qud'c a n h hfldng manh hdn den san Ifldng Chau A va a n h hfldng ye'u hdn de'n s a n Ifldng Viet Nam. Anh hfldng den lam p h a t lai cd kich b a n t r a i ngfldc: lam p h a t Chau A chiu anh'hfldng ye'u hdn so vdi lam p h a t Viet Nam dfldi a n h hfldng cua CSTT Trung Qud'c. Sfl khac biet nay cd t h e dfldc ly giai qua vi the khac n h a u ciia Chau A va Viet Nam trong q u a n he k i n h te vdi Trung Qud'c.
Anh hfldng ctia CSTT Trung Quo'c den Chau A va Viet Nam k h a n g dinh them eho vai trd ngay cang q u a n trgng cua k i n h te Trung Qud'c dd'i vdi khu vflc ndi ehung va Viet N a m ndi rieng. Nhflng hoat dgng m a n g t i n h (heu h a n h tien te cua Trung Qud'c da cho tha'y a n h hfldng den cac nen kinh te' lang gieng, Chinh vi vay, viee dfl bao trfldc tac dgng cua nhflng chinh sach kinh te tfl Trung Qud'c la viec lam can thiet de cd nhflng ting phd kip thdi. Ngoai r a , viec chiu a n h hfldng ldn tfl n e n k i n h te ben ngoai se iam eho hoat ddng kinh te trong nfldc p h u thugc vao nhflng bien ddng ngoai t i m
kiem soat. Do vay, can thie't phai cd nhung bien phap n h a m giam a n h hfldng ben^^SO^i de'n n e n k i n h te trong nfldc de ed the chu dgng hdn trong dieu h a n h kinh te./.
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Ngay nhan bki: 13-4-2019 Ngay nhan ban s i a : 6-5-2019 Ngay duyet dang: 10-6-2019
NghM cilu Kmh igsS8(495) • Thing 8/2019 53
