Tac dong cua chinh sach tai khoa den tang trudng kinh te, iqm phat va thdt nghiep d Viet Nam
LE QUANG T U * 6 N G
_i viS't sie dung ly thuyet Md hinh tang tritdng ndi sinh cua Borro (1990) dexdy dUng 3 md hinh thUc nghiem vdi muc dich ddnh gid tdc ddng cua chinh sach tdi khda deh td^^tmdng kinh tg. lam phdt'vd thdt nghiip d Viet Nam. Kit qud nghiin cihi eho thdy chinh sack tdi khda cd tdc dgng ldm gidm tdng trddng kinh ti] gia tdng lam phdt vd that nghiip.
Tif k h d a : chinh sdeh tdi khoa, chi ngdn sach, thu ngdn sdeh, thdm hut ngdn sach, tang tnidng kinh te, lam phdt, thdt nghiip.
1. Gidi t h i e u
6 Vidt Nam, n h i l u thap nien qua chmh sach tai khda cd chieu hUdng nghidng v l ndi long, ty le thu ngan sdeh va chi tieu eua Nha nUdc tren GDP cao, vdi k^ vpng la thiic d^y tang trfldng kinh t l ' nhUng de lai he luy la tham hut ngan sach, lam phat va nd edng ngay cang tang. Td'c dd tang trfldng kinh td', so vdi cae nUdc phat trien hdn la k h a 6 i tUdng song so vdi cae nude trong khu vUe cd d i l u kien tUdng dong, nhu Tnmg Qudc, Campuehia va Lao thi kem hdn nhilu. Tinh theo s6' hdu eua Ngan hang The gidi giai doan tfl nam 1996 den nam 2014, Viet Nam ed toe dp t a n g GDP binh quan nam la 6,51%, trong khi do cilng thdi kf T n m g Qud'e la 9,49%, campuehia la 7,66% va Lao la 7,06%. Cau hdi dat ra cd phai ehinh sach tai khda da lam giam toe do tang trudng kinh t l , lam tang lam phat va thap nghiep khdng? Gia thuyet t r a ldi la cd the. De lam ro gia thuyet nay tac gia sfl dung ly thuylt Md hinh tang trUdng npi sinh eua Borro (1990) de xay dung 3 md hinh thflc nghiem vdi muc dich lam rd va'n de ehinh sach tai khda tac ddng d i n tang trfldng, lam phat va that nghidp d Viet Nam.
2. Cd sol ly t h u y e t v a phtftfng p h a p n g h i e n cflu
2.1. Casd ly thuyet vd khung phdn tich 2.1.1. Nguon gd'c ly thuyet vd cdc cdng trinh nghiin cihi co lien quan
hf t h u y l t ciia Keynes (1936) cho r i n g gia tang cac khoan chi tieu cua chinh phu cd t h i thflc d^y t a n g trudng kinh t l nhd lam tang tdng cau cua n i n k i n h t e k h i n i n kinh te lam vao suy thoai, ke ca vay nd ch^p n h a n thSm h u t ngan saeh. N h i l u n h a kinh td' eho r i n g hf thuye't Keynes ehi la giai p h a p cflu nguy nen kinh t l trong ngan b a n khi n i n kinh lara vao suy thoai n e n khdng thich hdp vdi viec thuc day t a n g trfldng kdnh t l ' trong dai han.
D I danh gia hidu qua chmh saeh tai khda trong dai ban, ngudi t a thudng diing Md hinh t a n g trudng npi sinh. Md lunh khdi dau diidc nghieu cflu bdi Romer (1986), t i l p theo la cua Lucas (1988), sau dd Borro (1990), Borro, Sala-i-Martin (1992), Sala-i-Martm (1995) Mendosa, Milesi-Ferreti va Asea (1997) phat t r i l n va hoan thien them. Md lunh tang trfldng ndi sinh xac lap cac mdi quan he tang trfldng kinh te trong dai hem g i n vdi cac ylu to" tidn bd cdng nghe, sU gia t a n g t i l t kidm va tich luy cac y l i i to' san xuat; sU gia tang hieu qua cua qua t r i n h san xuat; gan cac tae nhan kinh td' vdi t a n g trfldng kinh te, dfla khu vflc chfnh p h u vao md lunh va kh^ng dinh, chinh phii ed t h e tdc ddng len cae nguSn Iflc U^n quan den t a n g trfldng kinh te thdng qua cac ehinh sach tai khda va cac chinh saeh kinh t l .
Cac kd't qua nghien cflu ly thuye't va thflc n g h i e m dila t r d n md h i n h t a n g t r u d n g noi
Le Quang Tudng, ThS., TTianh tra Chfiih phfl.
24 NghlSn cvtu Kmh lSsS2 (465) - ThSr^ 2/2017
Tdc flgng cua chinh sdeh .
sinh cho thay, chinh sach tai khda ed t h i tac dpng tieh cflc hoac tidu cflc t u y thupe vao mflc do, t y le thu, chi n g a n sach t r e n GDP, cd cau cac loai thu, chi n g a n sach, k h a n a n g quan 1^ dieu h a n h ve chinh sach t a i khda.
Cac nghidn cflu tam thlfy nhflng tac dpng tieh cflc ciia ehinh skch t a i khda den d^u tfl, t a n g trfldng GDP, giam lam p h a t va giam thS^t nghiep: Borro (1990) n h a n thgy r ^ g trong dai h a n khi can bling n g a n sach gifla t h u va chi thi t h u e khoan cd tae ddng tieh cue d^n t a n g taTUdng kinh te, nhUng t h u l suat tiieo ty le tac ddng dl'n t a n g trfldng k i n h td' theo hinh chfl U ngfldc, ngu f r a n g ehinh p h u t h u thue chx den mdt mflc gidi h a n n h a t djnh t b i khdng tac dpng tidu cflc den t a n g trudng kinh t l ; Agenor, Moreno-Dodson (2006) tim t h a y d^u tfl cdng vao k i t CSLU h a t a n g se kieh thich diu? tfl t u n h a n , qua dd tac ddng den t a n g trudng kinh te, Myles (2009) cho rlLng ehinh sach thul^ phu hdp setdc ddng den quyet dinh md rdng diu t u cua k h u vflc tfl n h a n tfl do thuc d^y t a n g trfldng kinb td', Howitt (2000) tim t h a y chi tieu cdng, k h u y i n khich, hfldng vao nghidn cflu va p h a t t r i l n , doi mdi edng nghe d cac doanh nghidp tac dpng den t a n g trfldng kinh te; Agenor, Moreno-Dodson (2006), Feldstein (1995) t h a y r a n g thdng qua viec tidu dflng, dau tU va t h u e mpt each hdp ly cua chi'nh p h u vao cac linh vUe y ti, giao due, dao tao lam giatang tich luy nguon voh con ngudi tae ddng tich cue d i n t a n g trfldng kmh te; A^iazadeh, Akhoondzadeh, Babazadeh (2014) tam tha'y chi n g a n sach cd tac dpng lam giam t h a t nghiep; Bakare, Adesanya (2014) tam t h a y t h a m h u t n g a n sach tac ddng lam giam lam phat. Ben canh dd, cac nghien cflu tim t h a y tac dpng tieu cue den t a n g trudng kiiih te, lam p h a t va tha't nghiep trong cae trfldng hdp xay r a t h a m h u t ngan sach, dau tfl cdng qua mfle; ty le ehi tieu cua chinh phii t r e n GDP cao..., n h u Borro (1991) tim thay, ty le chi tidu cua chinh phu tren GDP cd tae dpng tieu cflc den mfle t a n g trfldng kinh tl" binh quan d i u ngfldi va ty le d^u tfl k h u vflc t u rdian trdn GDP; dau tfl cdng h i u nhfl khdng cd tac dong dang ke den
thflc diy t a n g trfldng k i n h t C d i l u nky dfldc giai thich la do thul" s u a t cao da hdp meo viec kich thich d a u tU k h u vflc tfl n h a n , trong khi d i u tfl khu vflc cdng kem hieu qua; Devarajan, Swaroop va Zou (1996) tam thify vd'n d i u tfl p h a t t r i l n eua chinh phu, nhfl xay dflng h a t i n g giao thdng, v i l n thfoig, y tl", giao due khdng cd y nghia thong k e hoac tac ddng tigu cue den t a n g trudng kinh te; d i l u nay dfldc If giai vd'n d i u tfl p h a t trien cd t h i khdng ed tae dung kich thich san xuSit khi nd vfldt qua mflc va thfldng h a y xay r a ddi vdi cac nfldc dang p h a t t r i l n ; Fatima, Ahmed, Rehman (2012) Hm tha'y t h a m h u t n g a n sach tac dpng tieu cflc den t a n g trfldng kinh te; Mehrara, Soufiani, Rezaei (2016) tim thSiy chi tieu cua chinh p h u tac ddng lam t a n g lam phat;
.^fciazadeh, Akhoondzadeh, Babazadeh (2014) tim thSy t h u ngan sach cd t a c ddng lam t a n g t h a t nghidp. Tuy vay, cae nghidn cflu t r e n ehu y l u nghien cflu trdn tflng khia CEUih cua chfnh sach tai khda, n h u t h u ngan s^ch hoac chi n g a n sach hoac thul^ hoac dau tfl cdng...
tac dpng d i n t a n g trfldng kinh te hoac tac dpng den laim p h a t hoac tac ddng dl'n t h a t nghiep. It ed nghien cflu cflng mot luc dfla d i y du cac bidn tdng quat cua chfnh sach tai khda, gom chi n g a n saeh, t h u ngan sach, t h a m h u t n g a n each vao mpt md binh nghien cflu, n h a m tim hieu tac ddng d i y du eua cac b i l n tai khda len t a n g trudng kinh tl^ d l t h a y dUdc bflc t r a n h toan canh ciia chinh sach t a i khda tac dpng len t a n g trfldng, lam p h a t va t h a t nghiep.
2.1.2. Khung ly thuyet
Md h i n h t a n g trfldng ndi sinh dfldc p h a t t r i e n bdi Barro (1990), B a r r o a n d S a l a - i - Martm (1992), Sala-i-Martin (1995), Mendosa, Milesi-Ferreti a n d Asea (1997). Md h i n h n a y da dfla k h u vflc chfnh p h u (G) vao h a m san xua^t eua Cobb - Douglas; tao k h u d n khd nghien cflu mfS q u a n h e gifla chinh saeh t a i k h d a vdi mflc s a n lUdng va tSng trfldng k i n h t e t r o n g ddi h a n . Phfldng t r i n h cd dang:
Y=F(K.G)=AK^-^G'' (1) NghiSn aiu Kinh t4sS2 (465) • ThSng 2/2017
25
Tac dong cia chinh sich .
Trong io 0 < a < 1; K la vSii cua khu vile t u nhan, G la cung cap M u vao cua khu vile c6ng. Ph\ldng trinh (1) bien doi th^Lnh (xem chi tiSt tai Bleaney, Gemmell, Kneller (200U:
^,=a + f^fi,Y,+'ZyjXj,+U, (2)
i-i j - i
Trong do (|>, la toe d6 t a n g tnlSng kinh ti, Y|, la nhflng biSh kh6ng thuoc linh vuc tai chinh, Xjt la nhflng bi^n thuoc linh vile tai chfnh; bien khdng thudc linh tai chi'nh la nhflng bi^n ve lam phat, dau tu, thlit nghiSp, nh|Lp khau, xaSit kh^u...
Phuang trinh (2) CO the viet t h a n h dang don gian hdn n h u sau (Xem thSm dang phudng t n n h tUdng tU tai Milova, Vokshi - Abazi (2014)):
X,= >., + XjX,.+ ...+AiXB+U, (3) Trong do: X^ (k =1,2,3,. ..,k) la cac he sd'hoi qui, Ut 1^ sai s6',Yt la bien phu thuoc dai di^n cho bien tdng trudng kinh te^ hoac mot bi^n thu thu6c ndo d6 co li§n quan dSn tdng truflng kinh tg', cac bi^n 3 ^ la nhflng bien tai ehinh, nhu cac bien ve t h u ngan sach, chi ngan sach, tham h u t ngan sach hoac nhflng bien khong thuSc tdi chinh n h u d^u tu, thd't nghiep, tiS't kigm... Do la n e n t a n g 1^ thuyet de nghign cflu ndy dua r a 3 mo h i n h thUc nghiem, trong d6 m6i m6 h i n h dua vao d^y du cae bien tong quat cua chinh sach tdi kh6a, gom cac bie'n v l t h u ngdn sach, chi ngdn saeh, tham h u t ngdn sach d^ tim h i l u day du ve tac dong ehinh sach, tai khoa d^n tdng truSng kinh ti, lam phat va tha't nghigp 3 Vi6t Nam (trtt trudng hdp mot trong cac bi&i trgn co the bi loai bo vi kh6ng p h u hop vdi cac kilm dinh gia thuye't cua mo hinh hSi quy).
2.2. PhUttngphdp nghien cUu Tac gia s i dung ly thuyet Mo hinh t&ng t r u & g noi sinh cua Borro (1990) d l xay dung 3 mo hinh thuc nghiem danh gia tac d6ng cua chinh sach tdi khoa dg'n tdng trudng kinh tC Iam phat va thd't nghigp. 3 mo hinh
thuc nghigm ke't noi dSy d u cac big'n tdi chinh tdng quat, n h u cac bign ve t h u n g t o sach, chi n g a n sach, t h 4 m h u t ngan sach v4 cac bien kinh t e vi m6 co lign quan vdi cac bien tdng trudng k i n h t e , lam p h a t vd thSit nghigp sau k h i da thUc h i e n cac k i l m dinh t i n h dflng cua cac bi^n chuoi thdi, l^y sai p h a n mfit sS" b i l n , k i l m dinh cac gia t h u y l t ve m6 h i n h hoi quy Si xac Idp cac b i l n va mo h i n h cho p h u hdp. 3 mo h i n h co cac bien nhu sau: toe do t a n g t r u d n g GDP=GG; ty le d i u t u t r e n GDP =KI; tdc do t a n g GDP binh qudn d i u ngudi=GPI: ty le th&m h u t ngdn sach trgn GDP=RD; tdc d6 tdng lam phat=ING;t dc d6 tdng lao d6ng=EG; to'c do tdng ndng suiLt lao d6ng=GP; t y le t h u ngan sach nhd nude trgn GDP=ER; t y lg t i l t ki$m trgn GDP=SR; tdc do t a n g t h u n g a n saeh nhd nude=GR; t y lg chi n g d n sach nhd nude trgn GDP=ER; ty lg thIft nghigp=UE; ty 1^ nhdp k h i u trgn G D P = m ; tde dS t a n g d i u tU=IG).
H a m mo h i n h 1 la: GG = F(GPI, RD, SE, UR, RR, IG) va phudng t r i n h hoi quy 11-
GG = a , +0I2GPI + OjRD + a^dSR Hx, dUR + a J l R + a , I G + U
Trong d6 «„ (k=l,...7) 14 he s d h d i qui, d la Ifiy sai p h d n bdc 1 cua b i l n tUdng flngvd U la sai sd.
H a m mo h i n h 2 la; ING = P(ER, RD, EI, IR, GPI) vd phUdng t r i n h hdi qui Id:
d2ING = ^, + M 2 E E + M 2 R D + ]i,i2ia + M 2 I E + M 2 G P I + U
Trong dd Hi (k=l,...6) Id h$ s d h d i qui, d2 Id lay sai p h 4 n bfiie 2 cua cae b i l n tUdng ttng, U la sai sd.
H d m mo h i n h 3 la: UE=F(SE, GE, IE, EE, EG, ED, GP) va phudng t r i n h hdi qui Id:
d2UE = VI + VjdSE + Vjd2GE + VjdIE + VsdEE + VedEG + v,dIlD + v,dGP + U
Trong dd Vjj (k=l,...8) Id hg sd'hoi quy, d, d2 la ISiy sai p h a n bdcl, 'b|ic 2 cua cac bien tUdng ttng, U la sai sd.
D l t h u c hien Udc luong vd M l m dinh 3 mg hinh, tac gia stt dung eviews 8.0.
NgtiiSn cilu Klnh I^sif2 (465} • Thing 2/2017
Tac fldng cda chinh sdeh ...
Ve t h u t h a p dii heu, n ^ d n cflfl t h u t h a p dfl h e u tfl B nguon khac n h a u , dd la cua Quoc hpi, Tong cue Th^ng k§, Quy T i l n t e quoc te, Ngan h a n g The gidi, Ngan h a n g P h a t trien Chau A va EOCD. Ngudn cua Quoc hpi va Tong cue Th^Ti^ ke gdm cd: t^ng t h u n g a n sach n h a nfldc, tong chi n g a n sach n h a nfldc giai doan 1991-2013. Ngu6n cua Ngan hang The gidi, gom cd: tdc dd t a n g GDP h a n g nam;
H3T1 so giiia nam; GDP gia hien h a n h bang Vidt Nam dong va b a n g ddla My; t y Id n h a p khau t r e n GDP h a n g n a m giai doan giai doan 1986-2014; tdc dp t a n g lao dpng thdi k j 1992-2014; t y Id t h ^ t nghidp h a n g n a m giai doan 1900-2013. Nguon cua Quy T i l n td qudc te, gom cd: GDP gia co dinh tinh bitng Vidt Nam dong; ty le lam p h a t theo gia tieu dung; t y le tiet Idem t r e n GDP giai doan 1996-2013. Nguon Ngan h a n g P h a t t r i a l Chau A gom cd: toe dp t a n g d i u t u giai doan
1986 d i n 2014. Nguon EOCD, gdm cd: nSng susft lao dpng giai doan 1991-2010. Can cfl vao cac ngudn sd' lidu tren, nhflng bien da cd s i n t y le hoac toe dd tfl cac ngudn tren, tac gia sfl dung trflc ti^p cac n g u I n so lieu nay;
doi vdi nhflng bien chfla cd s i n t y Id hoac toe dp, t h i can cfl vao so" tuydt d ^ tfl cac ngudn t r e n de tinh t y le hoac tdc dp cho mdi bien.
Khi chay dfl Heu eviews se tfl ddng dieu chinh sd^ quan s a t p h u hdp vdi moi md hinh.
3 . K e t q u a v a t h a o l u a n 3.1. Kit qud nghien cOu
3.1.1. Ket qud Udc Idcfng 3 md hinh hoi quy Bang 1 eho th£y k i t q u a fldc Ifldng 3 md hinh bang phfldng p h a p OLS t r e n eviews 8.0.
Cac bien p h u thudc md l u n h 1 la GG, md l u n h 2 la D(iNG.2), md h i n h 3 iaD(UR,2). * la Prob t a i m i k y n ^ a 1%, ** la prob tai mflc f nghia 5%.
BANG 1: K e t q u a vtdc Ifldng 3 m o h i n h M 6 Unh 1 (Model 1)
Bioi (Variable)
C QPl RD
D(SR) IXUR) RR IG
He so hoi quy (Coemdem)
2,4«9S82 0.958059
^).098822
0,044572 .0.142402 -0.037801 0.014285
He stf xac dinh mO bhih (R-squaied)
G i i t r i thong k i t (t-
Sfalistic) 6344503*
173I7655»
2 J 9 2 9 9 5 "
2 , 5 8 3 5 1 3 "
-3.014349*
-2.878020*
2351569**
0.974187
M D U n h 2 (Model 2) Bioi
(Variable)
C D(ER,2) D(RD,2)
I K R U ) DdR) D(GP1)
H S s o h n i q u y (Coefficient)
- U 6 6 1 4,89316 -3,9153
-1554 1,41375 -25862
H6 stf xac dinh m6 Unh (R-sqnared)
Gia tri thoiigket (t-Statistic) -0.775455 5,262165*
5,496476*
5,005947*
3564532*
2,562014*
0,78875
M 6 U i i h 3 ( M a l d e l 3 ) Bi&i
(Variable)
C D(SR,2) D(GR.2)
tm^Z)
D(ER,2) D(EG) D(RD)
tKQPa
m s d hdi quy (Coefiident)
0,04648 0.14141 0,03717
0,15092 -0,5486 -1,7926 0,71457 -0,1595 H6 stf xac dinh mtf Unh
(R-squared)
Gia tri thong k e t (t-
Statistic) 0,197267 3,230172*
2,797910**
3,288073*
-5,063044*
-5,459568*
4,265670*
2,407449**
0.87975
3.1.2. Ket qud kiem dinh tinh di£ng cua cdc biin
Ket qua Idem dinh t i n h dijtog b a n g phUdng p h a p Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root
Test cho t^t ca 14 bd'n bien, cd 9 bien dflng d qua t r i n h I (0), 5 bien dflng 3 sai p h a n bac 1, bac I (1), vdi Prob.* = 1 % hoac = 5 %.
3.1.3. Kit qud kiem dinh biin thita NgNSn aiu Kinh 1^3^2(465)-ThSng 2G017
27
Tic Aong cia chinh sach
K i t qua Mem dinh bien thtta bdng Kilm dinh Wald thSy Probabflity (F-statistic) t a t ca cde bien va 2 bien co mttc y nghla thong kS thSp hdn v6i cdc bien khae cua 3 m8 hinh deu nhd hdn a = 0,05.
3.1.4. Ket qua kiem dinh sai sd'dac tning, thieu bii'n, dang hdm
K i t qua k i l m dinh sai sd dac trUng, thieu bien, djng hdm bang Kiem dinh Ramsey RESET cho thSy m6 hinh 1 eo Probability (P- statistic) = 0,2644; m5 hinh 2 eo Probability (F-statistic) -- 0,9574; mo hinh 3 c6 ProbabUity (F-statistic) = 0,3139.
3.1.5. Kei qud kiem tm da cgng tuyen Kilm tra hdi qui gdc vd hdi qui phu cua 3 mo hinh, cho thay R ' cua td't ca cac hdi qui phu cua 3 m6 hinh ddu nho hdn R' cua hdi qui gdc.
3.1.6. Ket qud kiem dinh phuang sai thay doi
Kiem dinh phUdng sai t h a y ddi b l n g BreuBCh-Pagan - Godfrey, thd'y r i n g mo hinh led ProbabiUty (Obs'E-squared) = 0,8123;
m6 hinh 2 c6 ProbabiHty (Obs*R-squared) = 0,2983; mo hinh 3 = 0,1212.
3.1.7. K& qud kiim dinh tU tiidng quan Kilm dinh t u tUdng quan b l n g Breusch- Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test, cho th^y mo hinh 1 co Probability (Obs*R-squared) = 0,2895; mo hinh 2 co ProbabiUty (Obs*R- squared) = 0,9001; mo hinh 3 co Probability (Obs*R-squared) = 0,1500.
3,2. Thdo luan kSi qud nghien ctiu Cdi mdi cua nghign cttu ndy so vdi cac nghign cttu trudc Id dd dUa r a 3 mo hinh thUc nghidm, trong do mdi mo hinh dUa vdo ddy du cac bien tdng quat cua chinh sach tdi khda, gdm cac bidn ve thu ngdn sach, chi ngan sach, tham h u t ngan sach d l ttm h i l u d i y du ve tdc ddng chfnh sach tai khoa den tdng tru5ng kinh te, lam phat vd thd't nghiep d ViSt Nam (trtt trudng hdp mot trong cae bidn tren e6 the bi load bd vi khong phtt hdp vdi cac k i l m dinh gia thuyet cua mo hinh hdi
quy, n h u bien t y le t h u n g a n sach tr6n GDP da bi loai khdi mo h i n h 1, vi q u a thUc hi6n c4c k i l m dinh, bien ndy k h 6 n g phti hop; bidn ty le t h u ngdn sach t r e n GDP (ER) bi loji khdi md h i n h 2, vi khi Udc lUdng mo h i n h co mttc f nghia t h d n g k6 > 5% kh6ng dat chufa thdng thudng. Viec 2 b i l n n a y hi loai khdi 2 md h i n h t r e n noi ldn r i n g , no khdng co quan he tuang ttng den t d n g trUdng k i n h t e hay lam phdt, chtt khdng p h a i la no co quan h$
n h u n g khdng dUdc dUa vdo md hinh).
Ket q u a Udc ludng 5 b a n g 1 cho th^y 3 md hinh CO h i s d R ' eao, md h i n h 1 dat 97,42%, md h i n h 2 dat 78,88%, md h i n h 3 dat 87,98%, cac bidn ddc Idp co Prob dat mttc f ngUa thdng ke b l n g 1% hodc 5%. N h i n vao cac ket qua k i l m dinh ttt muc 3.1.2 den 3.1.7 cho thdy 3 md h i n h ddu d a t c h u ^ cua cac kiem dinh.
Vd noi dung, ket q u a Udc lUdng md binh 1, bang 1, cho thdy bidn ty Id t h u ngdn sach trdn GDP (RR) c6 tac dong lam giam tdc do t a n g GDP, d i l u ndy gidng vdi nghign cttu cua Borro (1991); bidn t h d m t h u t ngan sach ngdn sach trgn GDP (RD) cung co tac ddng ldm giam tdc dd tdng GDP, dieu ndy gid'ng vdi nghien cttu cuaFatima, Ahmed, Rehman (2012). Bien ty Id chi n g a n sach trgn GDP(ER) khdng cd tdc dong ddn tde dd tdng GDP, dieu n a y gidng vdi nghign cttu cua Kormendi va Meguire (1985). (Bidn ER da hi loai khoi mo h i n h 1, vi qua thUc hign cae k i l m dinh bien ndy khdng p h u hdp).Ttt k i t qua tren cho thay chinh sach t a i khda co tac ddng ldm giam tdng trudng k i n h t d (vi high ER vd bidn RD mang ddu trtt, t r o n g k h i bidn ER khdng c6 tae dong). Cac bidn ty le thd't nghigp (UR) c6 tac dgng ldm giam tdc dd tdng GDP; cac bidn td'c dd tdng d i u tU (IG), tdc dd tdng thu nhdp binh q u a n ddu ngucli (GPI), ty le tidt kidm t r e n (3DP ed tac dong lam tang tdc dd tdng GDP.
Kdt qua Udc lUcJng mo hinh 2, bang 1, cho t h a y bien ty le chi ngan sach trgn GDP (ER) c6 tac dgng lam t a n g td'c tdng Isim phat, dilu ndy gidng vdi nghidn cttu cua Mehrara,
28 UghmajuKinhI^sff2(465) • Thing2/2017
Tac ffdng ciia chinh sach ...
Soufiani, Kezaei (2016); bi^n ty le t h a m h u t ngan sach tren GDP(RD) tac ddng lam giam tdc do t a n g 1am phat, dieu nay giong vdi nghien cflu cua Bakare, Adesanya (2014).
Nhin h e so" cua bienER m a n g ddu cdng tac dong lam t a n g tdc do t a n g lam phat m a n h hdn bien RD mang difu trfl tac ddng lam giam toe dd tang lam phat. (Bien ty Id t h u ngan sach tren GDP (RR) khdng cd tac dong den tfic do tang lam phat. Bi^n nay da tflng dfla vao md hinh 2, nhflng qua fldc Ifldng ed mfle f nghia tJidhg ke > 5%, khdng dat c h u a n thdng thfldng nen da loai). Tfl ket qua t r e n cho t h a y chinh sach tai khda ed tac dong lam t a n g lam phat (vi bidn ER m a n g dau cong tac dong m a n h hdn bien RD mang difu trfl, trong khi bid'n RR khdng cd tac dong). Cac bien ty le dau tfl tren GDP (Rl), bien toe do t a n g t h u n h a p binh quan d i u ngfldi (GPI) cd tac ddng lam giam tdc do tang lam phat, trong khi dd bien ty le nhap khau t r e n GDP(IR)lam t a n g toe do t a n g lam phat (chu y^u la do gia n h a p k h a u mdt s6^
mat hang d i u vao t a n g trong nhieu nam, nhat la xang d i u lam t a n g pham phat).
Ket qua fldc Ifldng md h i n h 3, bang 1, cho thay bien ty le chi n g a n sach t r e n GDP (ER) cd tac ddng lam giam ty le t h a t nghiep, di^u nay gidng vdi nghien cflu cua Aghazadeh, Akhoondzadeh, Babazadeh (2014); n h u n g bidn t y Id thSm h u t n g a n sach t r e n GDP (RD), bien toe do t a n g t h u n g a n sach (GR) cd tae dong lam t a n g ty le tha't nghiep, dieu nay giong vdi nghien cflu cua Aghazadeh, Akhoondzadeh, Babazadeh (2014). Nhin he so cua bien RD va bien GR mang dau cong tac ddng m a n h hdn he so' cua bien ER mang daii trfl. Vi vay, ehinh sach t a i khda cd tac dong lam t a n g ty le t h a t nghifp. Cac bie'n td'c do tang n a n g suat lao dong (GP), td'c dp t a n g lao ddng (EG) cd tdc dpng lam giam t h a t nghiep; cac bien ty le tiet kiem t r e n GDP (SR), ty le n h a p k h a u t r e n GDP (IR) cd tac dpng lam t a n g t h a t nghiep.
4, K e t l u a n v a k i e n n g h i c h i n h s a c h Ket qua nghidn cflu r u t r a tfl md hinh 1, md hinh 2 va md hinh 3 cho thay, ehinh sach
tai khda cd tae ddng lam giam tdc dp t a n g trfldng kinh t e , l a m t a n g toe dd lam p h a t va lam t a n g t y le tha't nghidp.
De n a n g cao hieu qua cua chinh saeh tai khda trong thdi gian tdi, nghien cflu n a y dfla r a cac k h u y e n nghi n h u sau:
Mdt Id, doi vdi t h u c day t a n g trfldng kinh te: do t h u n g a n sach va t h a m h u t ngan sach tac dpng lam giam t a n g trfldng GDP, trong khi dd d a u tfl toan xa hpi cd tae dpng tich cflc den t a n g trfldng GDP, do dd d l t a n g trfldng kinh te, ifflia nfldc can giam t y Id t h u ngan sach t r e n GDP; giam t y le t h a m h u t ngan sach t r e n GDP; chi n g a n sach trong khudn kho t h u n g a n sach, vi neii vfldt qua t h u ngan sach lam t h a m h u t ngdn sach se lam giam t a n g trudng GDP.
Hai Id, ddi vdi viec chong lam phat: do chi ngan sach iam t a n g lam phat, trong khi dd dau tfl toan xa hpi dau iam giam lam phat, de chd'ng lam phat, N h a nflde can giam chi ngan sach. Khuyd'n khich t a n g d i u tU toan xa hdi de tao t h e m h a n g hda, can doi tien h a n g . Tang cfldng quan ly viec n h a p khau, quan 1^ ty gia h ^ doM, dieu chinh t h u e n h a p k h a u va cac bien p h a p quan ly khac, n h a t la dra vdi cae m a t h a n g dau vao san xuat de binh on gia.
Ba Id, ddi vdi viec chd'ng tha't nghiep: do ty le t h a m h u t ngan sach t r e n GDP va to'c dp t a n g t h u ngan sach lam t a n g t h a t nghiep, de chd'ng tha^t nghidp, N h a nflde c i n giam ty le t h a m h u t ngdn sach t r e n GDP, giam td'c do t a n g t h u ngan sach. Khi khdng t h a m h u t ngan sach, N h a nUdc cd t h e tang chi ngan sach (nhflng khdng lam t h a m h u t n g a n sach).
Do ty le n h a p k h a u t r e n GDP cd tac ddng lam t a n g ty le t h a t nghiep nen N h a nfldc c i n cd cac giai phap cd t h e dUdc (vdi dieu kien khdng vi p h a m cac cam ket eua Viet Nam va cac nflde ve tfl do hda thfldng mai) nham b a n che n h a p khau, khuyen khich san xua't h a n g hda dau vao eho san xuat vd hang hda tieu dung trong nUdc cd chat Ifldng cd t h e canh t r a n h vdi hang n h a p k h a u de h a n ehe,thay thd' h a n g hda n h a p khau; cd bien p h a p
NghiSn Giu Kinh tSs62 (465) - ThSng 2/2017 2 9
Tac dong cDa chfnh sach
khuyen khich ngfldi d a n tieu dung h a n g hda san xua't trong nfldc cd c h i t Ifldng; t r a n h tam 1^ sinh hang ngoai ke ca h a n g ngoai m a chat Ifldng, g i i ea khdng td't hdn h a n g s a n x u i t tai Viet Nam.
Bdn Id, di eao ky luat t h u , chi ngan saeh va kiem soat chat che ky l u a t nay d l khdng xay r a bpi chi va t h a m h u t ngan saeh tidp tuc gia tang; di ddi vdi viec sap xep lai, tinh giam bien ehe bd may n h a nUde, dang, doan the va cac to ehfle, ddn vi hoat dpng b ^ g ngudn ngan sach n h a nfldc thUc sU tinh gpn va boat ddng cd hieu qua de giam bdt ganh n^ng va tranh lang phi trong ehi thfldng xuyen; nang cao hidu qua d i u tfl edng, xay dflng cic giai phap du manh de chd'ng dfldc lang phi, t h a m nhung, tieu cflc vatfly tidn trong p h a n bo chi ngan saeh va ehi d i u tfl edng./.
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