06 md nen kinh te va tac dong cua chinti sach tien te len tang trudng l<inh te
LE DUY KHANH
^ghien cihi nay kiem tra dnh hiidng cua do md nen kinh teden tdc dong cua chinh stick tien te len tdng triidng kinh te d cdc quoc gia chuyen doi si? dixng phi/cfng phap itdc lumg SGMM doi vdi dii lieu bang cua 15 quoc gia chuyen doi, giai doan 1999 - 2013.Ket qua cho thay a cdc quoc gia chuyen dot, do md nen kinh te co dnh hiidng tieu cUc doi vdi tdc dong cua chink sach tien te len tdng triidng kinh te.
Tii khoa: chinh sack tien te, tdng triidng kinh te, do md cHa nen kinh te', GMM.
1. Gidi t h i e u
Cung vdi chinh sach tai khoa, chinh sach tier te (CSTT) giti mot vai tro quan trong trong viec thuc day tSng trUdng kinh te va giai quye't viec lam (Cochrane, 1998), (Mishkin, 2002), (Berument va Dincer, 2008).
Mot sU thay doi trong lai suat dieu h a n h cua Ngan hang Trung Udng se c6 tac dong den lai suat thUdng mai ngdn h a n va dai han cua he tho'ng ngan hang, vi v£ky se tac dong len cac hoat dong kinh te. Chang han, khi lai suat thUdng mai ngan h a n va dai h a n giam xuo'ng, cac ho gia ^ n h se san sang hdn trong viec tieu diing cac hang hda va dich vti, cac doanh nghiep se 5 vao vi the san sang hdn de thuc hien viec dau tU nhSm mci rong cac hoat dong san xuat kinh doanh. Do do, cac doanh nghiep cung se gia tang viec thue mUdn nhan cong va thiic day san xuat. Ket qua thong thUcfng la that nghiep se giam di, tai san cua cac gia dinh se gia tang va kinh te se tang trudng.
Tuy nhien, trong mot nen kinh te md, CSTT thdt chat di kem vdi sU gia tang lai suat trong nudc khong chi tac dong de'n cac nhan to' noi dia, ma con ca nhiing yeu to' d ben ngoai bien gidi quoc gia (Romer, 1993;
Rogoff, 2003; Woodford, 2007; Mishkin, 2009). Su gia tang nay c6 the dem lai cho cac nha dau tU nudc ngoai mot ty le Idi nhuan cao hdn khi dau tU vao tai san trong nudc.
Dieu do co nghia la nhiing tai san noi dia (theo dong noi te) se hap dan hdn, do do can can vo'n se bien dong. Viec gia tang cac nguon vo'n chay vao se giup thuc day tang trudng kinh t e v a giai quyet viec lam. Noi each khac, do md nen kinh te co vai tro trong tac dong cua CSTT len cac yeu to'kinh te vi mo.
2. T o n g q u a n c a c n g h i e n ciJfu t r i i 6 c Cac ly thuyet kinh te cho rang viec md rong tien te se dan den ky vong ve viec giam gia cua dong noi te (Eichenbaum va Evans, 1993; Zettelmeyer, 2004; Keams va Manners, 2006; Bjttirnland, 2008). Khi gia dong noi te giam, hang nhap k h a u trd nen dat hdn mot each tUdng doi va cac doanh nghiep st£ dung nhieu dau vao tii nguon n h a p khau se co chi phi san xuat t a n g len dan de'n phai tang gia ban; hdn niia cac mat hang tieu diing dUdc nhap khau de p h a n pho'i trong nUdc ciing c6 gia cao hdn, khi do ngUdi tieu dung se yeu cau tang lUdng n h a m bao dam tien lUdng thuc te khong hi suy giam. Neu do md thUdng mai cang Idn, hang nhap khau cho san xuat va tieu diing trong nUdc cang nhieu, thi anh hUdng cua gia hang nhap khau len gia cua hang hda trong nudc cang cao, vi vay nhu cdu tang lUdng cang Idn. Ket qua nay c6 the anh hUdng tieu cue den nguon cung trong nudc.
Le Duy Khanh, ThS., Truong dai hoc Lao dOng - Xa h6i.
Nghien Cliu Kmh ie so 5(468) - Thing 5/2017
27
Do mdf nen kinh te
Nhu vay, khi thtic hien CSTT md rong, nguon cung hang hda trong nUdc se sut giam do gap trd ngai tii yeu cau tang lUdng cua ngUdi lao dong. Khi do, de dap ling nhu cau tieu diing trong nUdc, lUdng hang hda nhap khau se gia tang. Khi nen kinh te co do md cang Idn, nhiing tac dong nay se cang manh hdn. Dieu do dong nghia rdng, viec Ngari hang Trung Udng sii dung CSTT md rong de thiic day tang trUdng se gap kho khan. NhU vay, c6 cd sd de gia dinh rang do md nen kinh te cang Idn thi tac dong cua CSTT len tang trudng kinh t e s e cang giam di.
Nhiing nghien ciiu thUc nghiem de kiem dinh ly thuyet ve anh hudng ciia do md nen kinh te de'n tac dong cua CSTT len cac yeu to' kinh te vi mo noi chung va tang trUdng kinh
te noi rieng hien tUdng doi h a n che. Karras (1999) la mot nghien ciiu mang tinh tien phong, sit dung so hSu theo nam, giai doan 1953 - 1990 vdi dii lieu hang cua 38 quo'c gia phat trien va dang phat trien, da r u t ra ke't luan: mot nen kinh t e c o do md cang Idn, mtic thay doi trong cung tien se tac dong cang nho len tang trUdng kinh te nhUng lai tac dong cang m a n h len lam phat. Ke't qua nay ham y rdng, nhiing thay doi cua CSTT se tac dong han che len tang trUdng kinh te, nhUng se tac dong m a n h len lam p h a t trong dieu kien cua mot quoc gia co do md Idn. NgUdc lai, nhiing quoc gia co do md thap, t a n g trudng kinh te se chiu tac dong m a n h hdn, nhUng lam phat se khong t h a y doi m a n h khi cac n h a dieu hanh thay doi CSTT ma ho ap dung.
HINH l:Anh hifctag c u a d o mdr n e n k i n h t e d e n t a c d o n g c u a C S T T l e n t a n g trUdng k i n h t e (trfcfng \ing vdi raiic t a n g 10% c u a c u n g t i e n )
>a>
"i
u>
c Ol c
0.018 - 1
0.012 -
0.006 -
-0.006 -
•0.012 -
-0.018 -
,'"~~-~
.-'
j . ^
. > ' • ' ""'-s . . • - • ' \ . . .
0 2
\ ^ d6md=10%
" - _ ^ do md = 20%
--^
^ • v
"~-^.^._
\
\
" * " " • * •
4 NSm
do md = 50%
do md ~ lOOVa
„...,.„
6 8
Nguon.'Karras (1999).
Karras (2001) tiep tuc danh gia anii hitclng cua do m6 nen kinli te den rieng tac dong cua CSTT len tang truang kinh te cl 8 quoc gia trong giai doan tii quy 1/1960 de'n quy IV/1993. Ket qua cung nhat quan vdi nghien ciiu cua Karras (1999), tiic do mS ciia nen kinh te cang Mn thi tac dong cua
CSTT len san lUdng cl cac quoc gia cang nho di.
B e r u m e n t va Dogan (2003) dUa theo mo hinh ma K a r r a s (1999) da xay dung, sii dung so' lieu theo quy cua Tho Nhi K^ giai doan t a quy 1/1987 de'n quy 1/2001 de danh gia a n h hUcfng cua do m5 nen kinh te den
28 Ughien dm Kinh tas65(46Bj - Thing 5/201?
So md n6n kinh te ...
tac dong cua CSTT len t a n g trUdng k i n h t e va lam p h a t . Cac tac gia di den ket lu|in: do md cua n e n kinh t e co vai tro quan trong trong viec thiic t h i CSTT 6 Tho Nhi Ky; cu the: nen kinh t e cang md, hieu qua cua CSTT trong viec kiem soat lam p h a t va tac dong de'n thuc d^y t a n g trUdng kinh t e cang tha'p.
Ifik va Acar (2006) tiep tuc dUa vao mo hinh va phUdng p h a p ma K a r r a s (1999) sii dung de kiem nghiem a n h hUdng cua dp md nen kinh te den tac dong cua CSTT len t a n g trudng kinh te. Nghien ciiu nay sLt dung so' lieu bang theo n a m cua 42 quo'c gia, giai doan 1990 - 2000. Ke't qua nghien ciiu thUc nghiem p h u hdp vdi ke't qua ma K a r r a s (1999) da t h u dUdc trUdc d6. Nen kinh te co do md cang Idn, tac dong cua CSTT len t a n g trudng kinh te cang h a n che. Hdn nfla, k h a nang md rong tien te de thiic day t a n g trUdng d cac qudc gia dang p h a t trien se hi
h a n che hdn so vdi nhiing quo'c gia p h a t trien.
Mot nghien cliu vdi dfl lieu chuoi thdi gian dUdc Zhu (2006) thiic hien, svt dung mo hinh do K a r r a s (1999) xay dung, so lieu theo quy trong giai doan quy 1/1993 — IV/2004. Zhu (2006) tien h a n h nghien cCtu a n h hudng cua do md nen kinh te de'n tac dong cua CSTT len t a n g trudng kinh te va lam p h a t d Trung Quo'c. Ket qua cho t h a y rang do md cua nen kinh te Trung Quoc cang Idn, tac dong cua CSTT len t a n g trudng kinh t e v a lam p h a t deu giam di.
3. Phi^cJng p h a p n g h i e n cCfu va d ^ l i e u
Nghien ciiu nay sxi dung mo hinh nghien Cliu do K a r r a s (1999) de xuat de do lUdng a n h hudng cua do md n e n kinh te den tac dong cua CSTT len t a n g trUdng kinh te nhU sau:
Ayi,t = Pt> + 2 ^ ^^i-^-^ "^ Z P'""'^°"t-i + Z ^""'^"^'1-1 + Z '^'^'^ op^'ij.t-i^ra^t-i + "J;, Trong dd: j dai dien cho quo'c gia, t dai
dien cho thdi gian. Ay: t a n g trUdng kinh te;
Am: to'c do tang trUcing cung tien; Aoil: to'c do tang gia thuc ciia dau, dai dien cho cac cii so'c cung; P: he so'; u.^: sai so'ciia tang trUcing kinh te; Q, R, S la do tre cua cac bien doc lap.
Ayj^ji dai dien cho to'c do t a n g trUdng kinh te cua quo'c gia j vao n a m t. Tdc do tang trUdng kinh te d cac quo'c gia theo nam dUdc lay la to'c do t a n g trUdng kinh te theo gia co' dinh n a m 2005. Cach tinh:
^ y j , t = ( y , , t - y,,t-i)/yj,t-i- Trong d6 yj,, la tong san pham quo'c noi cua quo'c gia j vao nam t.
Ayi,t-i- ^^ ^^^'" ^""^ "^^^ ^^^'^ V^^ thugc.
Aoil^: ty le thay doi cua gia dau thUc te, dai dien cho cac cu shock cung co anh hUdng den t a n g trUdng kinh te; trong do gia dau thUc te dUdc do ludng bdng gia d i u the gidi (theo USD) chia cho ty le giam p h a t GDP
(GDP deflator) cua My. Gia dau the gidi dUdc s\i dung la gia dau theo thiing cua td chiic cac nudc xua't k h a u dau md (OPEC Oil Basket Price U$/Bbl - oil„p^„). Khi do, gia dau thUc te dUdc tinh nhU sau: oilreal opect - u s CDP deflatort
^ ^ = (oWopect " Oilred.opec,i-l)/°i're<op«,t-l.
Anij (:t6c do tang trUdng cung tien, dai dien cho CSTT, each tinh:Anij_j = (mj^^ - mj_j_i)/mj(_i.
To'c dp cung tien dUdc sii dung la M2 (tien rong).
open,^: do md nen kinh te nam t ciia quo'c gia j , dUdc do lUdng bang (xuat k h a u + n h a p khau)/GDP. Day la chi tieu do ludng dp md nen kinh te dUdc sii dung rong rai trong nhieu nghien ciiu, chang h a n Cameron (1978), Cernat va Vranceanu (2002), Adsera va Boix (2002), Kose, P r a s a d va cong su (2003), hay Borg (2006).
Nghien ciJU Kmh te so 5(468) - Thang 5/2017 2 9
DA md ne'n kinh tif.
TT
1.
2.
3.
4.
Tenbilh Tang tmcmg kinhtf
Cung ddn
Ddmd n^nkinh
t£
Gi£ditu thuct£
K:f hieu
^y%t
Am^,
openj^j
AoOt
B A N G 2 : M 6 t a c a c bi^n c&a m o h i n h
Mdta
"rang trucing kinh t^cua qudc gia, theo nSm, 2005 la
namgdc.
Thay d6i ciia cung ti£n mk Ngdn h^g Tning uong cung ling vko nIn kinh ^,
do ludng b^g M2.
£}6 md ciia n^n kinh i£, duoc do b^g dd md thuong
Ty le thay ddi ci^a gi£ diu ihucts:
Cach tfnh
^y%t = (y%t ~ y^xr-iVyixr-i
A">j,t = (™it - "»,t-i)/»%t-i
(XK+NK)/GDP
NguAndit lifiu '
DataStream da Thomson
Reuters
Cac dG li$u dtf^c s\i dung trong nghien ciiu nay dUdc thu thap tfi Data Stream cua Thomson Reuters, tii nam 1999 din nam 2013, v6i 15 quoc gia chuyen doi, trong d6 co 2 nudc Chau A la Viet Nam va Trung Quo'c, con lai 13 nu6c bao gom Nga va m6t s^ nu6c khu vUc Dong Au,
Phuangphdp itdc lUdng:
~ Kh^c phuc da cOng tuydn:
M6t v ^ dl quan trong co anh hudng d^n kft qua Udc lUdng cua mo hinh co bien tUdng tic Ii van dg da cong tuyen (multicollinearity) gifla bifo tUdng tac va cac bi6'n d6c 14p tao ra bien tUflng tac (Smith va Sasaki, 1979;
Morris, Sherman vi cong sU, 1986). Trong ngluSn com n4y, trufic khi xfi IJ da cSng tuyen, he so VIF gifla bifn tUdng tac va bien cung ti«n Ii 7,38 cho thSfy c6 hi$n tUdng da c6ng tuyen msuih, c6 thi anh hu&g dim ket qua uac luong. Trong so nhilu phudng phap dudc s4 dmg nh^m giam tinh da c$ng tuyen trong phan ti'ch hSi quy tuyen tinh doi vdi mo hinh CO bien tUdng tac, nghien cflu se s4 dung phuong phap centering (hdi tSm/quy tam), dUdc xem la phudng phap cho dS'n nay dUdc su dung pho' biS'n hdn ca. Sau khi s i dung phuong phap centering dl khdc phuc h$ so VIF cua hai bi& chi con 1,05 cho thky 30
hien tUdng da cong tuy^n da dUdc khSc phijc dang kl".
- Xac dinh do t r i toi da cua c4c bi& d6o l»p:
Trong nghiSn cflu niy, tac ddng cua cic bien dac l&p Ign bife phu thuoc dIu c6 J?
tri. D81 vdi dfl Mu bang, do tre c6 thi khac nhau giiia cac quSc gia v i gifla titng biln doc l^p. D6i vdi tflng biln dfic lip, cac gii tri dUdc xac dinh theo cac chi so thSng ke niy la cac chi so trung binh cho t^t ca cac qu&
gia trong mSu (Levin, Lin vi cSng sU, 2002) nen thUcPng kho chfnh xac (Berument, Konac vi cong su, 2007). Vi viy, nghiSn ciSu niy chon d6 tre t5i da ciia cic biln d$c lip dUa trSn ca cac chi B^ thong ke vi cd s6 IJ thuylt kinh t l .
Thuc te, tac d6ng cua CSTT len cac biln kinh t l vi mo luon c6 dd tri nhu nhilu 1^
thuylt kinh t l da chi ra. Friedman (1972) cho ring, su thay dii cia tiln te mSit m6t thcli gian dai hdn dl anh hudng den gia ca so vdi anh hudng din t4ng trudng kinh tl.
Theo dd, dng cho ring thdi gian niy c6 thi din 20 thang ddi vdi Ml vi 23 thang dfi vdi M2.
1. IVong b^ vi€t niiy tic giii kfaOng dl cflp chi tiit cdch dnh, tuy nhi6n cd thi cung cSp khi duoc y£u ciu.
AI^Mjn aiU KM M'sirs|'4»; - 77i^ S<»t7
Dfi mdnen kinht^...
BANG 3 : D o t r S t r u n g b i n h c i i a c a c b i e n d o c lalp t h e o c&c c h i s o t h o n g k £
Bi6i oil.
m, open, yu
AIC 1 BIC 1 HQIC Dd tri trung binh 1,00
0.63 0,69 0.80
1,00 0,69 0,81 0.87
1,00 0.88 0,81 0,93 Ngudn: Tic gia t&ih toan tit jA\Sn m^ kinh l£ lugng.
D i ^ t r e n ket qua tii cac chi so th^ng kg va cd sd 1^ thuyet kinh t^, dd t r i tm da cua tSit ca cac bi^n d6c l$.p cua nghiSn cvtu dutdc chon la 2 nam.
- I7dc liidng vdi dfl lieu b a n g ddng (dynamic panel data):
I>1 lieu dUdc nghien cihi sut dung t a p hdp t£f 15 qu6c gia chuyen d^i, bao gom ca Viet Nam, trong giai doan 1999 - 2013 la kieu dfl U0U bang. Nghien cutu n^y se sii dung phiMng phap SGMM 2 bu6c (SGMM two-step) d l U6c lildng a n h hudng cua do md n I n kinh t e den tac dong cua CSTT Ign t^hig trUdng feinh te, fadi phUdng p h a p nky co t h i kh^c p h i ^ dUdc nhflng nhudc diem cua mo hinh/so ligu n h u hien tUdng til tUdng quan, phUdng sai sai so thay d^i, v^ dac hiet la v a n de noi sinh.
PhUdng p h a p SGMM doi .hoi sue dung bien c6ng cu phu hdp. De kiem t r a tinh phu hdp nay, tac gia sut dung kiem dinh Sargan (kiem BANG 4: D a c d i ^ m c u a m a u
dinh gidi b a n ve noi sinh — over-identifying restrictions) vdi gia thuyet HQ: b i ^ c o i ^ cu la ngoai sinh, do do gia t r i p cua tb^ng ke Sargan cling Idn cang tot. Tuy nhien, de k i l m dinh S a l t a n khdng bi yeu tM so lUdng bi^n cdng cu p h a i nho hdn hoSc b l i i ^ sd" nhom (Roodman 2009). Ben canh do, de k i l m dinh ti;t tutdng quan cua mo h i n h dong, tac gia sd dung kiem dinh Arellano-Bond (Arellano- Bond test for AR) vdi gia thuyet H^: ^ d n g co tut tUdng quan, vk dUdc ap dung cho sai sd^cua md hinh, do i ^ gia t r i p ciing c ^ g Idn cang tdt. DcH. vdi kiem dinh til tUctng quan, ket qua AR(2) dUdc xem xet vi no kiem danh til tUdng quan d cac c3p do.
Trong cac md hinh cua nghidn c(ta nay, sai sd^ cua t a n g trutdng kinh t e uf, bao gom nhflng y^u td" tac ddng dSn tSng truSng kinh t e nhufng con chUa xac dinh, chSng b a n n h u giao due, tuoi tho cua dan so^ chi tieu chinh phu, lam phat, t ^ do chinh tri, dan chu, d I u tU, t h e che va nhieu yeii td^ khac (Barro, 1996;
Dawson, 1998; Barro, 2003), do do, nhflng yeu to nay co the tac ddng ddn bi^n t r i cua t a n g t n r 5 i ^ kinh td" (Ay^^p_(). Vi vay, nghien cfiu n&y chon bi^n ndi sinh la bien txl cua t§ng tnrSng kinh te, cac bien doc lap con lai la cac big'n ngoai sinh. Viec lila chon nay se dtldc kiem dinh hhig cac cdng ci^ thdhg ke.
4 . K e t q u a i l d c lif A i g Mo td thong ki
n g h i g n cufu» g i a i d o a n 1999 - 2013 TT
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Quoc gia Anbani Adecbaidan Bungari Tning Quo'c X Sec
ExtOnia HunEari Latvia BaLan Rumani Nga Slovakia Slovenia Ukrauia Vifit Nam
Ay(%) 5,03 11.96 2.99 9,74 2,56 4,02 1,99 4,32 3.70 3.42 4,98 3.72 274 3,77 6J0
Ani2(%) 8.76 36,83 17,30 17,09 6.73 15,09 9.18 14,82 10,36 25.18 33,74 8,20 7,99 32,48 30,05
open (%) 73,91 89.30 104,47 49.49 118,01 137 J 3 143,35
97,56 74,27 74,60 56.30 146,17 120,10 104,27 133,26
Nghien cOu Kinh tes65(468) - Thdng5/2017 3 1
Do mof nen kinh te
Ket qua Udc liMng
Cot (i) t r i n h bay udc lUdng t a c dong cua CSTT len t a n g t r u d n g k i n h te t r o n g trUcing hop chua xem xet den a n h h u i n g cua do mO nen kinh te, tUc t r o n g mo h i n h thi h e so P ; ^ = 0 . Truong hop nay h e so l f = a i 0 0 3 2 7 , c6 y nghia tho'ng ke 6 mile 1% cho t h a y cung tien va t a n g truSng k i n h te bien t h i e n cung chieu. Cung t i e n gia t a n g c6 t h e thiic
day t a n g t r u S n g k i n h t e , va ngUdc lai t h i t c h a t t i e n t e co t h i I i m o t t r o n g nhiing n g u y e n n h a n l i m t a n g t r u d n g k i n h te cham lai. T r o n g t r u d n g hdp cua cac quo'c gia c h u y e n doi cua m&u n g h i e n cUu, viec tang t r u d n g c u n g t i e n t h a y doi 1% co t h e giup t a n g t r u d n g k i n h te t h a y doi t r u n g binh 0,1003% khi cac yeu to k h a c k h d n g thay doi.
BANG 5: USc lUtfng t a c d d n g c u a C S T T (M2) l e n t a n g t r i i o l n g k i n h t e dUffi a n h h u ^ g c i i a d o mcf ( X u a t k h a u + n h a p k h a u ) / G D P
Bien A y , - i
(se) A o i l ,
(se) A o i l , . !
(se) A m 2 ,
(se) A m 2 , _ i
(se) A m 2 , . 2
(se) o p e n , A m 2 ,
(se) o p e n , _ i A m 2 , _ j
(se) open,_2Am2,_2
(se) Hang s6 (constant)
(se) T6ng A m 2 ,
(se) Tting o p e n , A r a 2 ,
(se) Arellano-Bond test for
AR(2) (p-value) Sargan test of overid.
Restrictions (p-value) (1) 0,2479565*
(0,1395476) -0,0288641«*«
(0,0082194) -0,0326244**»
(0,0088988) 0 . 1 0 0 3 2 7 1 " * (0.0228925)
0,0297639"»
(0,0040119) 0,1003271**»
(0,0228925)
0,329 0,964
(ii) - 0 , 5 7 4 5 1 8 3 "
(0,2010424) 0,0270902 (0.0193463) -0,040987S»»«
(0,0067322) 0,6598411«"
(0.0912528)
-0,6631861»»
(0.2587769)
-0.0361556**»
(0.0101169) 0.6598411«"
(0,0912528) -0,6631861**
(0,2587769) 0,168 0,386
(iii) 0.4126137***
(0.1242838) - 0 , 0 7 2 6 4 0 1 • • • (0,01059) -0,0080403 0.0124425 0,0634881***
(0,0211703) 0.0234409 (0,0414826) 0,0349803 (0,0275692)
0,0229115***
(0,0033345) 0,1219093***
(0.0320762)
0,588 0,276
(iv) 0,4394273***
(0.1273778) -0.0254724**
(0.0108266) -0,0172056 (0.0142149) 0,5069936***
(0,0886466) -0,2583042***
(0,0442239) -0,0114129 (0.0619541) -1,22479***
(0,2996718) 0,2280527 (0,2535503) 0,6394986**
(0,2390097) 0,0040367 (0,0048636) 0,2372765***
(0,0402349) -0,3572387*
(0,196718) 0,138 0,203 (^guon: Tac gia ti'nh toan tit p h ^ mem thflng ke.
Gill c h u ; " * )• njftro rfmifc 1%. • • • j nghia amiic 5% m*.y nghia a miic 10%. Sai sd chuan (slandard error) dux mnh bay irong dau ngogc dm (). He sd\-a sai so chuan ciia ling Am, va ot>m,Am, duac linh dita Iheo Icy ihuil
do Sims (19731 dexuil.
32 Nghi4n cOu Kinh tSsS 5(468) - Thing 5/21117
Dd mtnin kinh t^...
Cot (ii) trinh hky ket qua udc lUdng trong trudng hdp c6 xem x6t d€h do md n i n kinh t^, tUc pf^'^ldl^c 0. Trudng hdp nay, k^t qua tac ddng cua cung tien Idn t ^ g trudng kinh t e vin cho ket qua n h ^ t q u i n vdi trUdng hdp chua xem xet tac ddng cua do md. Cung tien md rong c6 t h e gitip thiic d§ly tftng trUdng Mnh td^d cac quoc gia c h u y i n ddi vk ngUdc I^i.
Ben c^nh do, ket qua Udc lildng cho thSfy h^serPi*^ - 0 , 6 6 3 1 8 6 1 , cd f nghia d mute 5%. EHeu nay h a m y ritng khi do md n e n kinh te tang t h e m 1% t h i tac ddng cua cung tien len t a n g trudng k i n h t e se giam t r u n g binh 0,6631% khi cac ygu td'kh^c khdng ddi. NhU v&y, trong dieu kien do md n I n kinh td^ c4ng Idn, tac ddng cua CSTT Idn t i n g trUdng kinh t e se cang giam di d cac qud'c gia c h u y i n ddi.
Dieu nay cho th^y dd md kinh t ^ Ik y^u to c i n quan t a m trong dieu h a n h CSTT d cac qudc gia nay.
Cot (iii) tiep tuc t r i n h bay ket qua Udc lUdng vdi d§ t r i tdi da cua cung t i l n (2 nam).
Ket qua Udc lildng mot l^n nfia n h ^ t quan vdi 1^ thuyet va k;y vong. H e so tdng cua cung t i l n (Ani2j) d^t 0,1219093, c6 J nglua thd'ng kd 5 mtic 1% cho t h a y md rdng cung t i l n c6 the la mot trong nhiing nguyen n h a n giiip thiic d^y t a n g t n i d n g k i n h tl^ vk ngUdc l^i.
X6t trong 2 nkm, cung t i l n t ^ g 1% cd t h e giiip thiic d^y t a n g trUdng t h e m t r u n g binh 0,1219% 3 cac qudc gia c h u y i n d i i neu cac yeu to khac khdng ddi. Day la ty le cho thiiy t ^ quan trong cua cung t i l n trong muc tidu thiic d^y t ^ g trudng cua cac Ngan bang Trung Udng.
Cdt (iv) xem xet a n h hudng cua dd md kinh td" d i n tac ddng cua CSTT len t a n g trudng kinh te vdi dd t r i tdi da cua cxmg t i l n . Khi CO xem x6t d i n a n h hudng cua do md, cung tien v I n dong bien vdi tkng trUdng kinh t l . H§ so tdng cua cung t i l n blbig 0,2372765, vdi miic y nghia 1%. N h u vky, xet v l tdng the, cung t i l n cd dd t r e n h ^ t dinh, tac dong keo dai d i n tang tnidng kinh t l d cac qudc gia chuyen doi. Trong tnidng hdp c i n thiic
d^y t a n g tnidng, md rong cung t i l n c6 t h e la mdt trong nhOng cdng cu (phoi hdp ciing nhieu cdng cu kh&c) giiip Ngan hkng Trung Udng dat dUdc muc tieu nky.
B A N G 6:Tac d d n g c u a c u n g t i e n l £ n t a n g t r i i d n g k i n h tl^
Biin
Am2,
(se) A i n 2 , _ i
(se) Ani2,_2
(se) He sd tiing A m 2 ,
(se)
Hisd 0,5069936***
(0,0886466) -0,2583042***
(0,0442239) -0,0114129 (0,0619541) 0,2372765"*
(0.0402349) Ngudn: Trich xu&t tCt bang 5.
Theo Kennedy (2005), trong trUdng h ^ nay dila theo h e BO tdng, cung tien thUc sy mang d^u dUdng, tiic d i n g bien vdi t a n g tnidng kinh t l . Tuy nbidn, hd sd'cua A m 2 t _ i mang dSfu a m khdng h a m f r^ng cung tien tac ddng ngildc chieu len t a n g trUdng kinh t e vdi do t r i mot n a m ma chi cho thsfy rang d n^m t - 1 t h i tac ddng cua cung t i l n da yd'u hdn so vdi n a m t (nam t hd sd* cung t i l n mang daii dUdng, cCing d^u vdi he so tong).
N h u vay, trong tnidng hdp nay, cimg t i l n c6 tac dong m a n h n h a t len t a n g trUdng trong n a m r a quyet dinh chinh sach, khi cd dd t r i mdt n^m, thi tac dong cua cung tien da yeu hdn va khdng con vai trd rd rdt trong vide thuc day t a n g tnidng d n a m t-2. Ket qua nghien ctiu nky r a t p h u hdp vdi cac 1^ t h u y l t kinh te ciing nhU cac nghien ctitu thilc nghiem khac ve ciing chu de nay, c h i n g b a n n h u Friedman (1972) h a y Gruen va cong sU (1999).
Trong khi do, hd so tdng p"^"" = -0,3572387, cd y nghia thong ke d miic 10%. K i t qua nay n h a t quan vdi cac ly thuyet kinh te cung n h u ky vong cua nghien ciiu. Trong d i l u kien do md cua nen kinh te ngay mot Idn, vai tro cua
t^hien cClU fGnh tSs65(468) - Thing 5/2017
33
Do md nin kinh te ...
CSTT trong thtic d^y tUng tnidng co t b i bi b a n c h i bdi nhOng tac n h a n co lien quan tdi qua trinh hdi nh^p. Dieu nay xu^t phat ttf nhflng nguyen n h a n nhU ty le h a n g n h a p kh^u cao lam tSng gia b^ng hoa san xuat va tieu dung trong nUdc, lam phat sinh nhu c^u tang lUdng cua ngildi lao dong, thdng qua do Ikm giam nguon cung trong nUdc va gia t a n g nhap kh^u. Cac tac dong nay lam suy giam vai tro cua CSTT trong thiic diy t a n g trUdng kinh te 5 cac qud'c gia chuyin ddi. Vi vay, khi hoach dinh chinh sach, cac Ngan hang Trung Udng d cac qudc gia chuyen ddi c ^ xem xet ddn dd t r i trong tac dong cua CSTT Idn t a n g tnidng kinh te, cung nhU a n h hudng ngUdc chieu cua dd md trong tdc dong cua CSTT d i n muc tidu tang tnidng kinh t e ma qudc gia mong mudh."
TUdng t u nhu trudng hdp co ton tai sil khac nhau v l dliu cua cung t i l n trong md hinh nay, cac cac hd sd pf^'^'d cac do tre khac nhau cung co d^^u khac nhau. Dilu nay khdng lam mSt di anh hudng ngUdc chieu cua dd md n^n kinh td' d i n tac ddng cua CSTT len tang tnidng kinh td' ma chi cho thS^y a n h hudng nay la khdng giohg n h a u qua cac nam.
Trong md hinh nay, anh hudng cua do md ddn tac dong cua cung ti^n len tang trudng kinh te manh nhat trong n a m hidn tai chii khdng phai d cac nam sau do.
Ket qua nay phu hdp vdi n h i l u ly thuyet kinh td' ciing nhu ky vong cua nghien ctiu nay ve vai trd cua do md n I n kinh t l trong qua trinh hoach dinh CSTT cua NgSn hang Trung Udng. Theo do, khi do md cua nen kinh te cang Idn (hoac cang nhd), thi tac ddng ciia CSTT Idn tang trudng kinh te d cac qudc gia chuyin ddi se cang yeu (hoac cang manh) hdn.
K i t qua thilc nghiem nay cung phii hdp va nhat quan vdi phan Idn cac nghien ctiu thilc nghidm tnldc day ve ciing chu de nhU Karras (1999), Berument va Dogan (2003), hay I§ik va Acar (2006). Nhu vky, su anh hudng ngUdc chilu cua do md kinh te den tac dong cua CSTT len tang tnidng kinh te td r a viing
chdc vdi nhieu m l u nghidn ciiu kh^c nhau, trong nhflng k h o a n g thdi gian khac nhau cung n h u vdi n h i l u n h d m quoc gia, bao gom ca cac quo'c gia p h a t trien, d a n g p h a t trien va c h u y i n ddi.
5. K i t l u a n
Bai viet n a y da t i l n h a n h kiem t r a tac dong, cua CSTT d i n t a n g t n i d n g kinh te dudi anh hudng cua do md n I n k i n h t l . V l mat ly thuyet kinh te',. tdc dong cua CSTT d i n tang tnidng kinh t l se yeu di k h i dd md cua nIn kinh t e t a n g Idn.
Trong dieu kidn hoi n h d p ngay cang si\i rdng vdi k h u vUc v a thd' gidi cua Vidt Nam cflng n h u cac quoc gia c h u y i n ddi, ket qua cua nghien ciiu n a y 1^ mdt h a m y can quan t a m ddi vdi CSTT d cac qud'c gia./.
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