Nghien cCru dong gop cua cdc thanh phdn kinh te den tang trudng kinh te Viet Nam
PHAM QUANG TIN
"fff^ it sau Dai hoi Ddng Idn IV (1986), cdc chie'n lUdc vd chinh sdch phdt trien kinh te'Viet I t K Nam deu Uu tien tap trung nguon lite phdt trii'n khu vUc kinh tenhd nUdc lam dong lite thuc day tdng tritdng kinh ti'Viet Nam. Bdi viet cho thay: mite do ddng gdp cua thdnh phdn kinh tenhd niidc vdo tdng trUdng kinh teViet Nam chUa xitng tdm vdi mite do Uu ddi ngudn lUc sdn xuat, tinh trqng lan at ddu tU vd hieu qud ddu tU thap d thdnh phdn kinh tenhd nUdc so vdi cdc thdnh phdn kinh tekhdc d Viet Nam.
TU k h o a : tdng trUdng kinh te; tong sdn phdm qud'c ndi (GDP); thdnh phdn kinh te; gid tri tdng them (VA); hieu qud ddu tU.
1. Dat vd!n d l
Sau Dai hdi Dang toan qud'c l4n thU VI, Viet Nam da thijfa n h a n da dang hda eae loai hinh sd hUu, Dang da thUa n h a n thUc tien n^n kinh t e h a n g hda nhieu t h a n h p h ^ n va dinh hudng p h a t trien 5 t h a n h p h ^ n k i n h te:
kinh te' xa hdi chu nghia (quoc doanh-hdp tac xa, t a p th^, gia ifinh); k i n h td' san xuat hang hda nhd; kinh te' t u tiic - t u ca^p; kinh t e tU b a n n h a nUdc va k i n h td' tU b a n tU n h a n . Qua dd, Viet Nam thiia n h a n sU p h a t trien ciia ngoai thudng hdi n h a p qud'e td' va coi trpng vide t h u h u t cac ngudn vd'n dau tU nUdc ngoai vao nen kinh te. Ngay 29-12-1987, Qud'e hdi chinh thUc thdng qua L u a t D^u tU nUde ngoai lam t i i n de eho viec t h u h u t d^u tU nude ngoai.
Den dai hdi D a n g XII (2016) va dac biet Nghi quyd't Hdi nghi l^n thU 5 (khda XII), Vidt Nam da cd nhiing t h a y dd'i Idn trong danh gia vai trd eua kinh td' tU n h a n : "Kinh t e t u n h a n la mot ddng lUc quan trpng de p h a t trien kinh te'. Kinh td' n h a nUdc, kinh te' t a p the ciing vdi kinh te' tU n h a n la ndng ed't d^ p h a t tri^n n e n kinh td^ ddc lap, tU ehu". Cd t h e ndi kinh td' tU n h a n da dUdc n a n g t a m trong dinh hudng chie'n lUdc p h a t trien kinh td'Vidt Nam.
2 . Cd sdf l y t h u y e t d o n g g o p c u a c a c
t h a n h p h a n k i n h te d e n t a n g tritdng k i n h t e
Theo td'ng hdp nghidn cUu eua Mai Ngpc Cudng (2005), cae n h a nghien cUu thudc trudng phai Trpng thUdng d l cao vai trd eiia ehinh p h u trong vide b a n h a n h chinh sach bao hd m a u dich thdng qua cdng cu t h u e quan, phi thue' quan va trd gia cua chinh p h u ddi vdi hang hda san xua't trong nudc. Trong khi dd, Adam Smith lai khdng danh gia cao vai trd cua chinh phu. Ong cho rang sU can thiep va bao hd qua Idn cua chinh phu se d a n dd'n su lang phi trong san xu^t va hieu qua trong san xua't se khdng cao. David Rieardo (1817) dUa r a ly thuye't Ldi the' so s a n h (Theory of Comparative Advantage) vdi quan didm moi chu t h e trong n e n kinh t e khac n h a u se cd nhiing dac t h u khac n h a u ve eaii t n i c sd hxiyx vd'n va n g a n h nghe kinh doanh, vi the' se tao r a nhUng ldi the' so sanh khae n h a u trong kinh doanh. Quan diem eua Rieardo eung dUdc ddng thuEtn bdi eae nghien cUu ciia Aldrich (2004) va Daniel M.
Bernhofen (2007).
Quan diem thiia n h a n vai trd ciia k h u vUc n h a nUde eung n h u k h u vuc phi n h a nudc t r o n g vide thiic d^y t a n g trUdng k i n h td' cua
Pham Quang Tin, TS., Tru&ng dai hoc Kinh t^, Dai hpc Da Nang.
Nghiin ciiu Kinh ^s610(485) • Thing 10/2018 11
Nghien cuu dong gop ...
moi qud'c gia cting dUdc tim t h a y trong nghien eiiu thUc nghidm eua H y m e r (1976).
Trong nghien ciiu nay, Hymer tie'p can tU gdp dp ca^u true sd hiiu cua doanh nghiep thude cac t h a n h p h a n k i n h td' khac n h a u tai My, cho tha'y doanh nghidp ed vd'n dau tU nUdc ngoai thi cd ldi thd've vd'n, edng nghd va trinh dp quan ly. Tuy nhien, doanh nghiep trong nudc lai cd ldi thd' ve t r u y e n thd'ng va mUc do am hi^u thi trUdng tieu t h u san pham. Vi v^iy, mdi loai hinh doanh nghiep ed nhUng ldi the' rieng nen hieu qua hoat ddng kinh doanh se khac n h a u .
Nghien cUu ciia Loree va Guisinger (1995) va cua Kwangmin va Soo (2012), Somnath va Saptarshi (2015) eiing cho th^y cd sU khac biet ve hieu qua kinh doanh, ddng gdp xa hdi cua cac chu the thudc cac t h a n h p h a n kinh te' la khac nhau.
3. P h U d n g p h a p p h a n t i c h v a n g u o n dvi lidu
3.1. PhUdng phdp phdn tich dong gop cua thdnh phdn ngdnh kinh te den tdng trUdng kinh te
- Tang trudng kinh te: dUde do ludng bang td'c dp tang kd't qua xua't n e n kinh te eua mot thdi ky nay so vdi mdt thdi ky dUdc chpn lam gd'e nghien cUu. Trong nghien cUu nay tac gia sii dung chi tieu Td'ng san ph£m qud'c ndi (Gross Domestic Product - GDP) dai dien cho kdt qua san xua't trong nen kinh te' de do ludng tang trUdng kinh td'. GDP dUdc chinh thUc sxi dung rdng rai dd do ludng kd't qua san xua't cua mot n i n kinh td' cua cac qud'e gia trong phidn b a n dau tien ciia He thd'ng tai khoan qud'c gia (SNA) n a m 1953 do Hdi Qud'c lien (tien t h a n ciia td chUc Lien hdp qud'c) xay dung dUa trdn bao cao cua nhdm nghien cUu TrUdng dai hoc Cambridge do Richard Stone dUng d^u. To' chUc Thd'ng ke l i e n hdp qud'c, Ngan h a n g The' gidi (WB), Quy Tid'n td qud'c td' (IMF), l)y b a n Thd'ng ke Chau Au (EUROSTAT), Td' chiic Hdp tac va phat trien Chau Au (OECD), To chUc ThUdng mai the gidi (WTO) deu thUa n h a n chi tieu GDP va sii dung do ludng ke't qua san xua't
cua n e n k i n h t^. Bdi vi so vdi cac chi tieu p h a n a n h kd't qua san xua't khae thi chi tieu GDP toan dien va dUde sit dung phd' bien d^
nghien eiiu kd't qua san xua't ciia nen kinh te d p h a m vi qud'e gia eung n h u qud'c td'.
Trong nghien cUu nay, tang trudng kinh td' dupe do ludng b a n g t a n g trudng GDP va dUdc xac dinh qua edng thiic:
GDR - GDR, ,,
„ = 1 (LiLxlOO% (1.01) GDP,_,,
gt: td'c dp t a n g G D P lien hoan thdi ky t (nam t).
GDPt: GDP cua thdi ky t (nam t).
GDP(t.[,: GDP thdi ky t - 1 (nam t-1).
- G D P la chi t i e u t d n g hdp, khi p h a n ra G D P t h e o t h a n h p h a n k i n h te' thi moi t h a n h p h a n k i n h te' la mot hd p h a n ca'u t h a n h n e n G D P , cd ca'u GDP theo thanh p h S n k i n h te' p h a n a n h t y t r p n g mUc dp ddng gdp eua tUng t h a n h p h a n k i n h td' vao GDP c u a n e n k i n h t e va dUdc xac dinh theo cdng thUc:
d. = ^ ^ ^ ; c l O O % = - ^ ; c l O O % (1.02)
dl. ty trpng gia tri t a n g them (value added) cua tiing thanh p h i n kinh td'trong nen Idnh te.
VA,: gia tri tang t h e m (value added) cua titng thanh phan kinh te' trong n^n kinh td'.
Can cd theo Quyd't dinh 13/QD-TCTK ve vide td ehUe dieu t r a doanh nghiep n a m 2015, toan bd eac chu. t h e t r o n g nen kinh te' Viet Nam se dupe p h a n td t h a n h 3 t h a n h p h i n kinh te' ed b a n : k i n h td' n h a nUdc (qud'c doanh), kinh t e ' t u n h a n (dan doanh) va kinh te' cd vd'n d a u t u nude ngoai. Ngoai ra, dii lieu p h a n tich cua bai vie't n a y chu yd'u dUdc kd' thUa til ke't qua t h u t h a p va tinh toan eua Tdng cue Tho'ng k e dUa trdn quyd't dinh 13/QD-TCTK de p h a n td va cdng bd dii lieu ve t h a n h p h i n k i n h td'Viet N a m .
- Md'i q u a n h e giUa cac t h a n h p h a n kinh td va t a n g t r u d n g k i n h td' dudc t h e hien t h e o edng thUc:
12 Nghien aiu Kinh tis610(485} - Thing 10/2018
Nghien ciiu ddng gop
GDP,-GDP„_
_WA„-VA,„_„) + <.VA,,-VA,^,_„) + (VA„-VA,,,_„)
•• ^^'I'-n
(VA, -VA,,, ,,) — ! S ^ ^ + (VA„ -VA,„ ,,) —i^^=ii + (VA,, - VA,„ ,,) — ' - ^ ^
" " ' VA,„_„ " ' ' VA,„_„ " " ' " VA,„_,
* * Si —
GDP„_„
» «, = «„rf,„-l, + «!,<'!(,-„ + «JA(,-„ = S «,/,„-„ (1.03)
r = l
gitt td'c dp t a n g gia VA ciia t h a n h p h i n kinh td' i d thdi k^ t (nam t).
di(n): t y trpng VA trong GDP cua t h a n h p h i n kinh te' i d thdi k^ t - 1 (nam t-1).
Cdng thiic (1.03) p h a n a n h t a n g trUdng kinh td' chiu a n h hudng ciia td'c dd t a n g VA va t y trpng VA ciia tting t h a n h p h a n kinh t e trong GDP cua n e n k i n h td'. H a y ndi each khae toe dp t a n g trudng kinh td' p h u thudc vao tdc dp t a n g VA va cd cau VA eua cac t h a n h p h i n kinh te' trong GDP. Ne'u tdc dp t a n g VA t h a y ddi h a y cd ca'u VA ciia cac t h a n h p h i n kinh te' trong GDP t h a y ddi ciing se l a m cho tdc do t a n g trudng kinh td' t h a y ddi theo.
MUe dp ddng gdp VA eua tiing t h a n h p h i n kinh te' vao t a n g trudng kinh td' dUdc the hidn qua cdng thUc:
gitd,(t
(1.04) Miic dp ddng
gdp cua tttng t h a n h p h i n kinh te'
Ngoai r a de cd cd sd bidn giai sU khae biet ve miie ddng gdp cua cac t h a n h p h i n kinh te' de'n t a n g trUdng k i n h t e , trong p h a m vi nghien ciiu n a y cdn do ludng hieu q u a s a n xua!t ciia nd'n kinh td' ciing n h u cac t h a n h p h i n kinh te'bang edng thiic:
Hieu qua vdh d i u t u
GDP (VAd
(1.05) V(VJ
V (VJ: td'ng vd'n d i u tU trong toan bd n e n kinh td' (thanh p h i n kinh te' i).
De p h d n tich hieu qua sxi d u n g vd'n d i u tU trong n e n kinh td', h e so' ICOR thudng dUdc dung de p h a n a n h miie dp d i u tU trong n e n
kinh t e de t a o r a mdt ddn vi kd't qua. T u y nhidn, h e sd' ICOR t r d n e n phUe t a p k h i giai thieh hieu qua d i u tU nd'u rdi vao trudng hdp gia t r i tuyet doi cua GDP n a m s a u thSTp h d n n a m trUdc, k h i dd h e so ICOR se m a n g da'u am va khdng the giai thich hieu qua von d i u t u trong n e n kinh td'. Vi vay, trong pham vi bai vie't nay, t a c gia khdng sxi dung h e sd' ICOR de dauh gia hieu qua vd'n d i u tU trong nen kinh td'. Cdng thUc (1.05) la chi tidu t h u a n (cang cao cang tot) p h a n a n h binh quan mdt ddn vi vd'n d i u t u trong n e n kinh te'tao r a dudc bao nhieu ddn vi GDP (VA).
3.2. Ngudn dU lieu
Dii lieu cua b a i viet n a y dUdc t h u t h a p theo chudi thdi gian gidi h a n tU n a m 1996- 2015, vi dU lieu p h a n to n e n kinh td' theo t h a n h p h i n kinh t e dUde Tong cue Thd'ng k e t h u t h a p va cdng bd' ehinh thd'ng tir n a m 1996 trd ve s a u , cdn cac dfl lieu trude n a m 1996 t a c gia c h u a t h u t h a p dUdc. D a y ciing mdt h a n ehe ciia nghien ciiu nay, vi dU lieu lich sxi cang dai t h i s u n h a n didn t i n h quy luat eua ddi tudng cang t h u a n ldi va ed dp t i n cay cao hdn. ThUc td' giai doan n a y eac chi tidu VI md trong n e n kinh te' Viet Nam dUdc Tdng cue Thd'ng k e t h u t h a p t i n h toan b a n g gia hidn h a n h (gia t h i trUdng) va gia cd' dinh.
Tuy nhien gia hien h a n h t a o r a sU giau cd m a n g t i n h gia tao do l a m p h a t gay ra. Vi vay, de p h a n a n h chinh xac k e t q u a s a n xua't eua nen kinh td' trong mdt giai doan e i n p h a i sxt
Nghiin aiu Kinh ti'si^ 10(485) - Thing 10/2018 1 3
Nghien ciilu dong gdp
dung gia cd' dinh de loai trii sU gia t a n g kd't qua san xua't do ye'u t d gia tao r a . Can cii theo cac quyd't dinh ve thdi die'm sxi dung gia cd' dinh de t i n h toan cac chi tieu trong n e n kinh te', eu the:
+ Giai doan 1996-2009: eac chi tieu trong nen kinh te' Vidt Nam dUde t i n h theo gia cd' dinh cua n a m 1994.
+ Giai doan 2010-2015: eac chi tidu trong nen kinh te' Viet N a m dUdc t i n h theo gia cd' dinh eiia n a m 2010.
Vi cae ehi tieu trong nen k i n h te' dUdc tinh 6 hai miie gia cd' dinh d h a i n a m khac nhau, khi r a p dii lieu theo chuoi thdi gian se khdng ddng bd nhau, nen c i n phai cd qua t r i n h chuyen dd'i gia d cac giai doan khac n h a u theo hai mUc gia ed' dinh ve eiing mot mUc gia. Tac gia ehpn mUc gia mdi nha't do Nha nUdc ban h a n h va hien dang dUde cac cd quan thd'ng kd n h a nUdc sii dung de t i n h toan cac chi tieu trong n e n kinh te' la mUe gia cd' dinh n a m 2010 va cac chi tieu theo mUc gia 1994 deu chuyen dd'i ve miic gia 2010.
- De thUc hidn vide chuyen dd'i gia eua eae ehi tieu kinh td' xa hdi trong n e n kinh te, Bd Kd' hoach va dau tU Viet N a m da b a n h a n h Thdng t u so 02/2012/TT-BKHDT ve viee quy dinh n a m 2010 lam n a m gd'c t h a y doi cho nam gd'c 1994 de t i n h cac chi tieu thd'ng ke theo gia so sanh. Thdng tU 02, da hUdng d i n each thUc chuyen dd'i gia tii n a m 1994 sang nam 2010 eua cac chi tidu trong n e n kinh te' trong viec dieu chinh theo chi so' gia ehuyen ddi. Tuy nhidn, vdi 28 chi tieu p h a n a n h so sanh ve kinh te' xa hdi trong n e n k i n h theo tUng thdi diem (quy, nam) khac n h a u , tUdng Ung vdi tUng chi sd' gia ehuyen dd'i khae n h a u va thUe tien so lieu cua Tdng cue Thd'ng ke edng bo trong n a m 2015, da chuyen hda dii lieu eua t o a n bd n e n k i n h te' ve gia ed' dinh n a m 2010 tii n a m 2000- 2015.
De chuyen dd'i dii lieu trUde n a m 2000, tae gia khdng t h e ehuyen ddi theo Thdng t u 02, vi t i n h phUe t a p cua q u a t r i n h t i n h toan.
Ngoai r a tac gia ciing khdng cd dU lieu chi
tiet cua n g a n h k i n h te', viing k i n h td' va cac t h a n h p h a n k i n h te', ciing nhU nhiing chi tieu chi tid't ehuyen sau de chuyen gia ve n a m 2010, rdi tdng hdp t h a n h nhUng chi tidu c h u n g cho t o a n bd n e n kinh te'. Vi vay, de ehuyen dd'i gia cho dU lieu tU nam 2000 ve trUdc, cac chi t i e u dUa vao p h a n tich dudc t h u e hidn n h u sau:
+ Dd'i vdi chi t i e u GDP: dUa vao gia tri GDP cua mot n a m t i n h theo gia cd' dinh n a m 2010 v a td'c do t a n g trUdng GDP hang n a m da dUdc Td'ng cue Thdng kd cdng bd' de t i n h ngUdc lai cho n a m trUdc theo sti chuyen dd'i cua cdng thUc (1.01) t h a n h cdng thUc:
GDP-GDP.,^
GDR,_
^=1^x100%
= ( _ ^ ^ 5 l)xlOO%
GDP,,.,,
^ ^ „ GDP GDP,.,,=-—-^
100
(1.06)
B a n eha't eua gia cd" dinh da loai trii sil bid'n ddng ve gia de p h a n a n h sU bie'n ddng ve m a t khdi ludng s a n p h ^ m vat cha't va dich vu dUdc tao r a t r o n g n e n kinh td', edng thUc (1.06) sxi d u n g eho toan bd n e n kinh te la cha'p n h a n dUdc. So s a n h kd't qua chuyen ddi theo cdng thUc (1.06) va ke't qua chuydn gia eiia Td'ng cue Thd'ng ke tU n a m 2000- 2009, cho tha'y gia t r i t u y e t doi ciia chi tieu GDP sau khi c h u y e n ddi ve gia cd' dinh 2010 ed t h a y dd'i so vdi mUc gia cd' dinh n a m 1994.
Tuy nhien, td'c dp t a n g trUdng GDP giai doan 2000-2009 theo gia cd' dinh n a m 2010 v i n khdng t h a y ddi so vdi gia n a m 1994, vi khi t i n h b a n g gia cd' dinh m a n g t i n h ddng bo thi dii gia n a m nao t h i khdi lupng h a n g hda va dieh v u tao r a t r o n g n e n k i n h te' la khdng t h a y ddi.
+ Chi tidu VA cua cae t h a n h p h i n kinh te' dUdc chuyen gia d u a theo ty trpng VA, trong GDP theo gia n a m 1994, de t i n h ngUde VA theo gia n a m 2010 dUa theo cdng thUc:
14 Nghiin ciiu Kinh 14s610(485) • Thing 10/2018
Nghien ciiu dong gop ...
VA, V4oi
=> ^AtOlO = ''M,994 X GO^ZOIO (1-07) - Chi tieu von ddu t u (I) dudc chuyen gia tudng t u n h u chi tieu VA, dua theo t y trong cua I trong GDP theo gia n a m 1994, de tinh ngUdc I theo gia nSm 2010 d u a theo c6ng thilc;
" " * GDP,,,
~ ^ ' imn ~ " (199
, GDP,, xGDP^,,, (1.08) - Chi tieu von d i u tU ciia tUng t h a n h p h i n kinh t e dude xae dinh theo t y trpng vd'n d i u t u cua tiing t h a n h p h i n k i n h te' trong tdng dau t u Viet Nam theo gia n a m 1994, de tinh ngUde vd'n d a u tU tiing t h a n h p h i n kinh td' n a m 2010 dUa theo cdng thUc:
J _ ^11994 _ ^1199^ ^ •'i2Q10
"/11994 3 J ~ J
Z
r ^1994 ' 2 0 1 0 ' i l 9 9 4l=[
=>A2010='^/d994XAoiO (1-09) 4. Ket q u a p h a n t i c h
HINH 1: Cd c a u k i n h t e V i e t N a m g i a i
4.1. Xu the"chuyen dich cd cau kinh te Viet Nam theo thdnh phan kinh te Tii sau dai hdi VI, chii trUdng eua Dang va Nha nude da cd n h i e u t h a y ddi trong q u a t r i n h quan ly dieu h a n h da't nUdc, thUa n h a n kinh td' nhieu t h a n h p h i n va tao dieu kien cho cae t h a n h p h i n k i n h te' khac n h a u trong n e n kinh te' dUdc p h a t tri^n bdn eanh vai trd chu dao cua kinh td' n h a nUdc. Chinh dieu nay da lam eho ed ca'u kinh te' Vidt Nam ed sU chuyen dich dang k e theo hudng giam t y trong k h u vUc k i n h t e n h a nUdc va gia t a n g ty trong k h u vUc kinh td' ngoai n h a nUdc. Dii lieu bang 1 va h i n h 1 p h a n a n h kinh td' n h a nude, tuy dupe xac dinh lam d i u t a u va ddng vai trd ehu dao trong toan bd n e n kinh td' Viet Nam, n h u n g mUc ddng gdp binh quan vao ty trpng kinh td' ca nUdc giai doan 1996- 2015 la 32,15%, tha'p hdn ra't nhieu so vdi mUc 48,4% ciia kinh t e tU n h a n . Dieu nay cho th^y vai trd eua kinh td' n h a nude ngay cang giam: n e u nhU n a m 1996 t y trpng VA cua kinh t e n h a nUdc trong GDP la 39,93% t h i dd'n n a m 2015 ehi cdn 31,44%, tUdng Ung giam 8,49%.
d o a n 1996-2015, t h e o t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e
50.00
40.00
30.00 -
10.00
• • - - - • -
-•" • • ' ^ » « •
-*-
. _ , , _ ^ . A k ^ * " ' ^
" • " N h a nip6c
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
- • " Ti/ nhan ~ * ~ D^u tu" nu-dc ngoai
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ngudn: Tac gia tinh to^n tit s6 liftu ciia T6ng cue Tlitfng kft.
Nghiin aiu Kinh tgs610(485} • Thing 10/2018 15
Nghien curu ddng gop ...
Dii hdu qua cac k^ Dai hdi Dang eung cho thay vai trd cua kinh te' n h a nUdc ngay cang giam, trong khi dd khu vUc cd vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai mdi dUdc thUa n h a n va phat trien tU sau Dai hdi Dang lan VI nhUng ngay eang ddng vai trd quan trpng trong nen kinh td' Viet Nam. Nam 1996, ty trpng VA eua khu vUe ed vd'n dau tU nUdc ngoai chi d mUc 7,39% trong GDP Viet Nam, thi dd'n n a m 2015 da tang Idn 19,69%, tUdng ling tang 12,3% la mdt mUc tang rat manh. Dieu nay cho thSi^y nhiing BANG 1: Cd c a u k i n h t e V i e t N a m t h e o
Ddn vi
chinh sach t h u h u t d i u tu nudc ngoai cua Viet Nam trien khai trong nhflng nam qua la cd hidu qua, ddng thdi sU hSp d i n ve ngudn nhan lUc gia re cua Viet Nam va eae dieu kien Uu dai t u nhidn da t h u h u t dUdc nhieu du an diu tu. Ngoai ra, thi trudng chiing khoan Viet Nam hoat ddng tii n a m 2000 de'n nay da tao ra mdt kdnh t h u hiit vd'n d i u t u nudc ngoai manh me hdn. Chinh vi vay, da lam cho mUc dp dong gdp cua khu vUe ed vd'n dau tU nUdc ngoai vao GDP Viet Nam ngay cang tang.
t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e g i a i d o a n 1996-2015 tinh: %
Giai doan 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 1996-2015
Nha nudc 39,45 38,56 35,06 32,15 36,30
Tu nhan 50,15 47,12 47,85 48,17 48,32
Dau tu nu6c ngoai 10,40 14,32 17,09 t9,69 15,38
Tong 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Nguon: Tac gia tinh loan ttr sfl' lifu cua Ti5ng cue Th6ng kt.
Ben canh sii gia t a n g cua khu vUc cd vd'n d i u t u nUde ngoai, chu trUdng co p h i n hda ehuyen ddi hinh thUc sd hiiu d nhUng edng ty n h a nude mot each quyet Het cua Dang cung nhu Chinh phu, dUdc the hidn qua hang loat cac van ban: Nghi dinh sd 64/2002/ND-CP cua Chinh phu b a n h a n h ngay 19-6-2002 ve chuydn cdng ty n h a nUdc t h a n h cdng ty cd p h i n , Thdng bao so' 37-TB/TW eua Bd Chinh tri ban h a n h ngay 26-5-2011 ve de an Dd'i mdi cd ehe hoat ddng eua eae ddn vi sU nghidp cdng lap, day m a n h xa hdi hda mdt so loai hinh dieh vu sU nghidp edng, Nghi dinh so 59/2011/ND-CP cua Chinh phu b a n h a n h
ngay 18-07-2011 ehuyen doanh nghidp 100%
vdn Nha nUde t h a n h edng ty co p h i n , Nghi quyet so' 40/NQ-CP eiia Chinh p h u b a n hanh ngay 09-08-2012 ve de a n Ddi mdi cd chd' hoat ddng cua cac ddn vi sU nghiep edng lap, d^y m a n h xa hdi hda mdt so' loai hinh dich vu sU nghiep edng... Su quyd't t a m thiic hidn qua t r i n h chuyen ddi h i n h thUe sd hUu cd phan hda eae doanh nghidp n h a nUdc trong nhid'u linh vUe khac n h a u da gdp p h i n thiic day gia t a n g ty trpng VA cua k h u vUc ngoai n h a nUdc trong GDP Viet N a m .
4.2. Dong gop ciia cdc thdnh phdn kinh teden tdng trUdng kinh teViet Nam BANG 2: T a n g triTdtng k i n h t e v a VA c a c t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e V i e t N a m
g i a i d o a n 1996-2015 Bdn vi tinh: % Giai doan
1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 1996-2015
Nha nudc 6,05 6,82 3,85 4,60 5,33
Tu nh&n 4,74 6,89 7,04 5,00 5,91
Dau tu nudc ngoai 24,13 10,23 9,65 10,41 13,45
GDP 6,95 7,33 6,32 5,91 6,63 NguSn: Tac gia tinh toan tir s6 lieu cua Tdng cue Thfing k6.
16 Nghiin aiu Kinh ti's610(485} • Thing 10/2018
Nghien cuu dong gdp ...
Giai doan 1996-2000, t a n g trUdng VA k h u vUc n h a nUdc dat 6,05% cao hdn so vdi k h u VUe t u n h a n la 4,74%. Tuy nhien, b i t d i u tU Dai hdi Dang l i n IX (2001) dd'n n a m 2015 tang trudng VA k h u vue kinh te' n h a nUdc la th£p nha't so vdi k h u vUc tU n h a n va k h u vUe cd vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai. Dii lieu b a n g 3 p h a n a n h vai trd cua k h u vUc kinh td n h a nUde trong vide ddng gdp vao t a n g trUdng GDP Viet N a m ngay eang trd nen md n h a t , khdng diing vdi vai trd la t h a n h p h i n kinh te' ehii dao trong n e n k i n h te' Viet Nam. Cd the k h a n g dinh r a n g k i n h td' tU n h a n mdi dung la
t h a n h p h i n k i n h t e ehu dao ciia nen kinh td' Viet N a m . Giai doan 1996-2015 kinh te' t u n h a n ddng gdp vao t a n g trUdng GDP Viet Nam ludn cao nha't so vdi eac khu vUe kinh te' khac. Dac biet giai doan 2006-2010, kinh td' Viet Nam rdi vao k h u n g hoang l i n II thi vai trd eiia kinh td' tU n h a n eang t h e hien ro ndt vdi mUc ddng gdp len den 52,86% va giai doan 2011-2015 khi nen kinh td' Viet Nam chua p h a t trien thi mUc ddng gdp cua kinh td' t u n h a n v i n 6 mUc 41,06% eao nha't so vdi k h u vUc n h a nUde va k h u vUc cd vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai.
HINH 2: T a n g trrfdfng k i n h t e v a VA c a c t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e V i e t N a m g i a i d o a n 1996-2015
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
7v - • - NhJ Nu'*o - • - Tu' nhan A Dau tu- nifCTC ngo&i -»«-GDP
I99e 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ngudn: T^c gia tinh todn tit s6' lifiu ciia T6ng cue Thfl'ng ke.
Khu vUc kinh te n h a nUde ddng gdp vao t a n g trudng GDP Viet N a m d giai doan 1996- 2000 la 34,36% va 2001-2005 la 36,07%, cao hdn so vdi k h u vuc k i n h te' ed vdn d i u tU nudc ngoai l i n lUdt la 31,01% va 16,46%. TU n a m 2006 dd'n 2015 ty Id ddng gdp VA cua
k h u VUc cd vd'n d i u tU nudc ngoai da vUdt qua ty Id ddng gdp k h u vUe kinh n h a nUdc vao t a n g trudng k i n h td'Vidt Nam. Rieng giai doan 2006-2010, ty Id ddng gdp eua k h u vUe d i u t u nude ngoai dat 25,29%, trong khi do k h u vUc n h a nude ehi d mUc 21,85%. Giai
Nghiin ciiu Kinh t4s610(4^} - Thing 10/2018
17
Nghien cuu ddng gdp ...
doan 2011-2015 ddng gdp eiia k h u vUc d i u tU nUdc ngoai len de'n 33,76% t h i k h u viic kinh te' nha nUde ehi d mUe 25,19%. Cd thi ke't luan: ddng gdp cua eae t h a n h p h i n kinh td' vao tang trudng kinh td' Viet Nam, kinh td' tU nhan ddng vai trd quan trpng nha't, tie'p theo
la kinh td' cd vd'n d i u t u nUdc ngoai va tha'p nha't la kinh td' n h a nUdc, mac dii ve chu trUdng va chinh sach p h a t trien cua Dang, Chinh p h u dinh hUdng p h a t trien kinh te n h a nudc ddng vai trd chii dao, d i n dat nen kinh te'Viet N a m .
BANG 3: D o n g g o p c u a c a c t h a n h p h a n k i n h td' v a o t a n g trtfdfng k i n h t e V i e t N a m g i a i d o a n 1996-2015
Ddn vi tinh: %
Giai doan
1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015
Nha nu6c Tuyet
doi 2,39 2,64 1,38 1,49
Ty trong 34,36 36,07 21,85 25.19
Tunh^n Tuyet
doi 2,41 3,26 3,34 2,43
Ty trong 34,63 44,46 52,86 41,06
DSu tu nudc ngoai Tuyet
doi 2,16 1,43 1,60 2,00
Ty trong 31,01 19.46 25,29 33,76
Tong Tuyet
doi 6,95 7,33 6,32 5,91
Ty trong 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Nguon: Tac gia tinh toan til s6' li6u ciia Tdng cue Thong k6.
4.3. Hieu qua sdn xua't cua cdc thdnh phdn kinh te
BANG 4: Cd c a u d a u tU V i d t N a m t h e o t h a n h p h a n k i n h t ^ g i a i d o a n 1996-2015 Giai doan
1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 1996-2015
Nha nudc (ty dong) 154414,41 266286,83 316523,34 270137,42 251840,50
(%)
54,37 57,59 44,79 39,07 46,98
Tu nhan (ty dong) 67627,57 124364,79 195135,82 264772,73 162975,22
(%)
23,81 26,90 27,62 38,30 30.40
Diu tu nudc ngoai (ty dong) 61979,88 71734,10 194957,78 156461,25 121283,25
(%)
21,82 15,51 27,59 22.63 22,62
Tong (ty dong) 284021,85 462385,72 706616,94 691371,40 536098.98
(%)
100,00 100.00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Ngudn: Tac gia tinh toan til s6 lifiu eua Tdng cue ThS'ng kfi.
Xet ve cd ca'u dau tU Viet N a m theo t h a n h p h i n kinh td', dU lieu b a n g 4 eho tha'y cd sU ma't can dd'i ra't Idn t r o n g tdng d i u tU cua nen kinh td'. Giai doan 1996-2015, ty trpng vd'n d i u tU cua k i n h td' n h a nUdc ehie'm de'n 46,98% trong tdng d i u t u Vidt Nam, cao hdn ra't n h i e u so vdi miic 30,40%
ciia khu vUc kinh td' tU n h a n . Trong ta't ea cae giai doan tUdng Ung vdi cac k^ Dai hdi Dang, kinh te' n h a nude ludn la k h u vUe dupe Uu tien d i u t u m a n h me nha't trong ngn kinh td'. Dae biet, giai doan 1996-2005 k h u vUc d i u tU n h a nudc ludn chie'm hdn
50% tdng d i u t u t r o n g n e n k i n h te, 1996- 2000 la 54,37% v a 2001-2005 Idn den 57,59%. Tuy nhien, tU t u d n g t a p t r u n g moi ngudn lUc cho t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' n h a nUdc da cd su t h a y ddi, t h e hien qua dii lieu cd ca!u d i u t u giai doan 2011-2015, k h u vUc n h a nude la 39,07% va k h u vUc t u nhan 38,30%, sU ehdnh leeh ty Id vdn d i u tU giiia h a i t h a n h p h i n k i n h t e chi cdn miic 0,77%
nhUng k h d n g edn q u a Idn so vdi mific ehdnh lech cua giai doan 1996-2000 la 29,51%, giai doan 2001-2005 la 30,69%. Kd't qua p h a n tich cho phdp k h a n g dinh r i n g , cd sU
1 8 Nghiin aiu Kinh tSsS 10(485) - Thing 10/2018
Nghien cAu dong gop
la'n at trong d a u tit gifla t h a n h p h ^ n k i n h t e n h a nit6c so v6i t h a n h p h a n kinh te tit n h a n . HINH 3: Cd c a u d a u t i i V i e t N a m t h e o t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e g i a i d o a n 1996-2015 70.00
/ \ A \ .^^
• Nh^nu'd'c f ' T i f n h S n " • * " • Dau tu' niFdc ngoSi
Nguon: Tac gia tinh toia til s6' lifiu ciia T6ng cue Thfkng kS.
Xet ve quy md va. t y t r p n g d i u t u t r o n g n e n k i n h t e t h i t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' n h a nudc chiem t y t r p n g cao nha't, t u y n h i e n nd'u xdt ve h i e u q u a d i u tU lai la mdt va'n de k h a c . DQ lidu b a n g 5 eho tha'y ca giai doan 1996 -2015, k h u vUe t u n h a n cd hidu qua cao nha't vdi miie b i n h q u a n mot ddn vi vdn tao r a dUde 5,54 ddn vi VA, eao hdn so vdi miie b i n h q u a n c h u n g ca n e n k i n h t e la 3,24 ddn vi. T r o n g k h i dd k h u vUe k i n h t e n h a nUdc dUdc d i u tU cao nha't t r o n g n e n k i n h t e n h u n g hidu q u a d i u tU ehi d miic 2.44 ddn vi, tha'p hdn so vdi miie b i n h q u a n cua n e n k i n h t^ vk dac bidt so vdi k h u vUc kinh td' tU n h a n lai c a n g thtfp hdn. Ngoai ra, eung c i n p h a i xem xet lai c h i n h sach t h u hiit v^n d i u t u nUdc ngoai b a n g cac chinh sach Uu d a i va cd che' q u a n 1;^ ddi vdi
k h u vuc d i u t u nudc ngoai. Mae dii k h u vuc d i u t u nudc ngoai cd v a i trd Idn doi vdi n e n k i n h td' Viet N a m , n h u n g hidu qua trong d i u t u cua k h u vuc n a y c h u a t h a t sU xiing t i m vdi miic u u dai d i u t u so vdi k i n h t ^ tU n h a n .
Hien n a y d a n g cd nghich 1^ t r o n g n e n k i n h td' Viet N a m theo t r a t tU Uu dai d i u tU giUa cac t h a n h p h i n k i n h te: k i n h te' n h a nude; k i n h td' ed vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai va eudi eung la k h u viie k i n h td' tU n h a n . Tuy nhidn xet ve miic ddng gdp vao t a n g t r u d n g GDP va hidu q u a d i u tU t r o n g n e n k i n h t e t h i k h u vUe k i n h te' t u n h a n la eao nha't so vdi cac t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e k h a c .
Xet theo tCfng giai doan, hieu qua d i u tU eiia k h u vuc k i n h td" d i u t u nude ngoai cd da'u hidu dUde cai t h i d n theo thdi gian.
Nghiin aiu Kinh tS'siS 10(485) - Thing 10/2018 19
Nghien cuu ddng gop ..,
rieng giai doan 2011-2015 hidu qua d i u tU cua khu vUc nUde ngoai la 3,25 ddn vi xep thU hai va cao hdn so vdi k h u vuc k i n h te n h a nUdc. Khu viic k i n h td' nUdc ngoai la mdt khu vuc dac biet, N h a nUdc khd can thiep trUe tie'p ndn va'n de hidu qua d i u t u cua k h u vUc nay la do nhUng n h a d i u tU nudc ngoai chiu t r a c h nhidm. Dd'i vdi Viet Nam, dieu quan t r p n g la k h u vUc ed vd'n d i u t u nudc ngoai c i n t u a n t h u diing quy
dinh p h a p l u ^ t ciia Vidt N a m , thUe hien d i y du cac n g h i a v u ve k i n h te' - xa hdi doi vdi Viet N a m . Va'n dd~ c u a Vidt N a m la tao cd ehe' b i n h d a n g eho ta't ca cac t h a n h phin t r o n g n e n k i n h t e t r o n g tiep can cac ngudn lUc san xua't va cd hdi d a u tu, de eac thanh p h i n k i n h te ed dieu kidn n h u n h a u trong hoat ddng s a n xua't, t a o dieu kien cho cac t h i n h p h i n k i n h te' ciing p h a t trien trong dieu kidn b i n h d a n g .
BANG 5: H i d u q u a v o n d a u tvi c u a c a c t h a n h p h a n k i n h t ^ V i e t N a m g i a i d o a n 1996-2015
Ddn vi tinh: Idn Giai doan
1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 1996-2015
Nha nudc 2,58 2,00 2,14 3,05 2,44
T u n h i n 7.39 5,37 4,74 4,66 5,54
Dau t u nudc ngoai 1.76 2,78 1,80 3.25 2,40
Tong 3,51 3,00 2,73 3,71 3,24 Nguon Tac gia tinh toan tir s6' lifiu ciia T6ng cue Thdng kt.
5. K e t l u ^ n v a m o t so' h a m y c h i n h s a c h
Tii sau Dai hdi D a n g l i n VI, cac ehinh sach va chid'n lUde p h a t tridn k i n h td' Vidt Nam cua Dang va Chinh p h u da dinh hUdng p h a t trien t h a n h p h a n k i n h td' n h a nudc, de tao ddng luc thiic d i y eae t h a n h p h i n kinh te' khae phat trien theo n h a m d a t muc tidu t a n g trudng k i n h td'. Chinh vi vay, cac ngudn lUc trong n i n k i n h te', dac biet Ik ngudn lUc ve von dUde t a p t r u n g eho t h a n h p h i n kinh td' n h a nUdc, d i n de'n t i n h t r a n g la'n at trong d i u t u giQa t h a n h p h i n kinh te n h a nude so vdi cac t h a n h p h a n k i n h te' khae.
Kinh te n h a nUde, ngoai vide dUdc Uu tidn tap t r u n g vd'n d i u t u cdn n h a n dUdc nhieu Uu dai ve chinh sach hdn so eac t h a n h p h i n kinh td' khac. Dac bidt k h i so vdi kinh te" t u n h a n , n h u n g hidu qua d i u t u eiia kinh te' n h a nude tha'p hdn ra't n h i e u so vdi kinh td' t u n h a n . Chinh hidu qua d a u t u tha'p da lam cho kd't qua san xua't eua n e n k i n h td'
b a n che', lam cho t a n g t r u d n g k i n h te' Viet Nam bi kim h a m va c h a m p h a t tri^n. Ngii n h u k h u VUc k i n h te' t u n h a n dUdc sU d i u tit thich d a n g theo n h u c i u cua qua trinh phat trien va dUde h u d n g d i y du cae ed ehe Uu dai mdt each cdng b a n g n h u kinh td' nha nudc cung n h u k i n h td' cd vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai, t h i khdng chi l a m cho kd't qua san xua't ciia t h a n h p h i n k i n h te t u n h a n tang trudng, m a se g6p p h i n thiic d i y cac thanh p h a n k i n h te' k h a c k h a e p h a t trien mang t i n h lan tda, cung n h u gdp p h i n lam tang t r u d n g k i n h td'Vidt N a m eao hdn.
Kd't q u a p h a n tieh thiic nghidm tudng Qng dQ hdu chudi thdi gian tQ 1996-2015, eho tha'y c h u trUdng cua D a n g trong vide dinh h u d n g lai vide p h a t t r i l n eac thanh p h i n k i n h te' Vidt N a m t r o n g thdi gian ddn, vdi t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' tU n h a n la ddng liic p h a t tridn k i n h td' l a c h u i n xac va phii hdp vdi dieu kien t h u c ti§n ndn k i n h td' Viet N a m . Tuy nhidn, tii c h u trUdng den thUc tien t r o n g tUdng lai c i n p h a i cd mdt dp tre
20 Nghiin aiu Kinh tS's610(485) - Thing 10/2018
Nghien cdu ddng gdp
v^ thdi gian nha't dinh. Vi vay, cac cKp l a n h dao ea'p cao Viet N a m ciing e i n p h a i cd dp kidn n h i n t r o n g q u a t r i n h t h u c hidn cac chie'n lUdc va cac c h i n h sach ho trd t h u c d i y k i n h te' t u n h a n p h a t t r i e n . Vide n a y c i n thUe hidn xuydn sud't t r o n g dai h a n t h i hidu qua d i u tU va ddng gdp c u a k h u vUe k i n h td' t u n h a n ddi vdi t a n g t r u d n g k i n h t e Viet Nam se eang eao hdn nQa.
Ngoai ra, dd t h u e d i y p h a t t r i e n t a n g tudng k i n h t e t h d n g q u a vide thiic d i y t a n g t r u d n g cac t h a n h p h i n k i n h t e , Viet N a m c i n thUc Men:
Thay doi tU duy m a n h me hdn nQa trong vide dinh hudng p h a t t r i e n cac t h a n h p h i n k i n h te. D a n g va C h i n h p h u e i n xem xet lai cac chinh sach Uu dai d i u t u va eac kd^ hoach p h a t t r i e n k i n h td' Viet N a m t r o n g viee Uu tidn t a p t r u n g ngudn lUc va Uu dai chinh sach de p h a t tridn t h a n h p h i n k i n h te n h a nUdc va k i n h te' ed vd'n d i u t u nudc ngoai h a y khdng? ThUc t i i n k e t q u a p h a n tieh thUc nghiem giai doan 1996-2015 cho t h i y , vai trd cua k i n h td' n h a nUde khdng tUdng x^ng vdi quy md d i u t u t r o n g n e n kinh te. Chinh p h u ndn la'y hidu qua d i u tu, mQe do ddng gdp vao t a n g trUdng k i n h te' Vidt N a m eiia cac t h a n h p h i n k i n h te' lam cd sd de xay d u n g va quy h o a c h p h a t t r i e n cae t h a n h p h i n n g a n h k i n h td'.
- Chinh p h u n e n ho trd va. u u dai n h i e u hdn cho k h u vUc k i n h te'- tU n h a n , it nha't la can b i n g hdn so vdi vdi t h a n h p h i n k i n h te' n h a nUdc va. k i n h td' cd vdn d i u tU nUdc ngoai trong vide tiep c i n cae ngudn lue s a n xua't n h u vd'n va da't dai. Ly do la vi t h a n h p h a n k i n h t e tU n h a n ed hidu q u a d i u t u cao nha't, ddng gdp vao t a n g trUdng k i n h te' cao nha't va eung la k h u vUe t a o r a viee lam nhidu nha't cho n e n k i n h t e Viet N a m .
- Chinh p h u n e n xem xet lai vai trd cua k i n h te' n h a nUde trong q u a t r i n h t h a m gia vao h o a t ddng s a n xua't t r o n g n e n k i n h td' la d mQc dp nao? K i n h te' n h a nUde n e n gidi h a n d vide thUe hidn s a n xua't, cung ca'p cac
s a n p h i m v a t eha't va dieh vu m a n g t i n h cdng cdng ( h a n g hda cdng) phi ldi n h u a n n h i m p h u c vu xa hdi m a eae t h a n h p h a n k i n h te' k h a e k h d n g t h a m gia san x u i t , hoac nhQng linh vue m a n g t i n h dac t h u lien q u a n de'n a n n i n h qud'c phdng. Nhiing linh vUc ddi hdi ngudn lUe Idn m a n g i n h a n eac t h a n h p h a n k i n h td' k h a e khdng t h e d a m nhidm dUdc, hdn la. mdt c h u t h e kinh td' boat ddng s a n x u i t m a n g t i n h eanh t r a n h vdi cac t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' khac trong ndn k i n h te.
- Can d a n h gia lai vai trd eua t h a n h p h i n k i n h t d eo vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai trong vide ddng gdp vao k i n h te* xa hdi Viet Nam, cd c i n thie't p h a i Uu dai qua nhieu so vdi t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' tU n h a n n h u trong thdi gian qua h a y khdng. C i n p h a i cd sU lUa chpn va dinh hUdng Uu tien p h a t trien t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' cd von d i u tU nUde ngoai theo mUc dp ddi mdi cdng nghd san xua't, bao ve mdi trUdng, miic do ddng gdp vao t h u n g a n sach, t a o vide lam trong n4n kinh te va thUc h i e n cae n g h i a vu dd'i vdi Viet N a m ,
Ben c a n h nhQng kd't qua dat dUdc t h i h a n ehd' cua nghidn cQu n a y la chua bde t a c h dUde t o a n bd kdt q u a san x u a t cung n h u d i u t u eua t h a n h p h i n k i n h td' n h a nUdc t h a n h h a i p h a n ridng bidt: p h i n nao la thUe hidn cac n h i e m v u xa hdi dd cung ca'p san p h i m v a t e h i t va dich v u cdng phi ldi n h u a n ; p h a n n a o la s a n xua't k i n h doanh vi muc dieh ldi n h u a n . Trong tUdng lai ne'u dieu kien dQ lieu t h u t h a p cua Tdng cue Thd'ng kd chi t i e t hdn de cd t h e bdc t a c h rieng bidt t h i ke't q u a p h a n tich thUc nghiem se cd dd c h u i n xae cao hdn./.
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Ngay nhan bai:
Ngiy duyai dang:
19-7-2018 22-8-2018
Nghiin aiu Kinh t4sg 10(485) - Thing 10/2018
