Tac dong cua chinh sach co tuTc den bien dong gia co phieu
cac cong ty niem yet n&anh cone n&hiep
^-^ e / t-F • • PHAivi HOfa H 6 N G THAI*
v a HOANG ANH"
Tom tat:
Nghien cdu xem xet tdc dgng cda chinh sdch cotdc len bien dgng gid cd phieu cua cdc cdng ty ngdnh cdng nghiep dugcphdn loqi trong SdGiao dich chitng khodn TP. Ho ChiMinh (HOSE) vd SdGiao dich chitng khodn Hd Ngi (HNX) vd do ludng mdc do tdc dgng cda chinh sdch cotdc den gid cua co phieu. Td do de xudt hdm y chinh sdch ve cotdc cda doanh nghiep deed the tdi da hoa gid tri cim doanh nghiep.
Tuf khda: chinh sdch cotdc, bie'n dgng gid co phieu, cdng ty ngdnh cdng nghiep niem yet, thi trudng chdng khodn Viet Nam
Summary
The study examines the impact of dividend policy on stock price fluctuation of industrial firms listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), and on the stock price as well. Based on that, recommendations for dividend policy of these firms are proposed to maximize their value.
Keywords: dividend policy, stock price fluctuation, listed industrial flrms, Vietnam stock market
GlCfl THIEU
Tren the gidi cd nhieu nghien cffu ve tac ddng cua chinh sach cd tffc de'n bien ddng gia cd phie'u. Trong do, Baskin (1989) va Hashemijoo cho ke't qua nghien cffu la ty le cd tffc cd md'i tffdng quan am va cd y nghia de'n bie'n ddng gia cd phieu. Tai Viet Nam, nhffng nghien cffu ve van de nay dffdc Vd Xuan Vinh (2014), Pham Thi Yen Nhi (2015) deu cho ra ke't qua nghien cffu la chinh sach cd tffc cd tac ddng de'n bien ddng gia cd phieu.
Tuy nhien, cac nghien cufu tren lai nghien cffu nhieu nganh mdt luc, ma mdi nganh lai cd nhu cau sff dung vdn khac nhau, do dd chinh sach cd tffc cung khac nhau, vi the cung anh hffdng de'n ke't qua nghien cffu. Do do, nghien cffu nay chi nghien cffu den mdt nhdm nganh rieng biet, dd la nganh cdng nghiep de gdp them bang chffng thffc tien chffng minh chinh sach cd tffc anh hffdng de'n bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u cac cdng ty cung nganh.
CO s d LY THUYET VA PHU'ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU
Co sd ly thuyet
Baskin (1989) vdi nghien cffu kiem dinh mdi quan
he giffa chinh sach cd tffc va bien ddng gia cd phieu vdi dff lieu ciia 2,344 cdng ty My (1,074 cdng ty thudc nganh cdng nghiep, 183 cdng ty thudc nganh khai thac dau md, 338 td chffc tai chinh, 330 cdng ty thudc nganh dffdng sat hoac cdng ich, 230 cac doanh nghiep budn ban le va 139 la cae cdng ty dich vu hoac benh vien). Ke't qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, cd md'i tffdng quan am giffa ty sua't cd tffc va bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u, khi ty sua't tang
1% thi gia cd phie'u se giam 2.5%.
Trong khi do, Allen va Rachim (1996) nghien cffu ve md'i quan he giffa chinh sach cd tffc va bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u tren thi trffdng chffng khoan Uc. Ket qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, cd mdi tffdng quan am giffa viec chi tra cd tffc va sif bie'n ddng gia cd phieu. Phu dinh ke't qua cua Baskin (1989), Allen va Rachim (1996) cho rang, mdi tffdng quan giffa bien ddng gia cd phie'u va ty sua't cd tffc la rat thap. Ty sua't cd tffc dffdc loai bd ra khdi phffdng trinh hdi quy sau do la vi da cdng
'PGS, TS., "Trufdng Dai hoc Tai chinh Marketing I Email: [email protected] Ngdy nhdn bdi: 07/11/2018; Ngdy phdn bien: 19/11/2018; Ngdy duyet ddng: 21/11/2018
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Kinh te va DiT baotuyen. Dd'i vdi cac bie'n kiem soat khac nhff bien ddng thu nhap va ty le nd la hai nhan td then chd't cd the xac dinh sff bien dong gia cd phieu.
Ben canh dd, Jecheche, Petros (2012) nghien cffu ve "tac ddng cua chinh sach cd tffc len rui ro ve gia cd phie'u d Zimbabwe". Giai doan nghien cffu tff nam 2001 den nam 2011 vdi mSu nghien cffu la 60 cdng ty niem yet d thi trffdng chffng khoan la Zimbabwe. Ke't qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, ty le cd tffc va ty le chi tra cd tffc cd tac ddng dang ke den bien ddng gia cd phie'u. Md'i quan he khdng anh hffdng nhieu khi them cac bien kiem soat tren. Do do, cd the ndi, chinh sach cd tffc anh hffdng den bie'n dong gia cd phie'u.
' 0 Viet Nam, Vd Xuan Vinh (2014) nghien eiJu tac ddng cua chinh sach cd tiJc den bie'n ddng gia ed phieu trong giai doan 2008-2012 vdi dff lieu la 103 cdng ty niem yet tai HOSE. Ket qua cho tha'y, ty le chi tra cd tffc vdi dao ddng gia cd phie'u cd tac ddng cung chieu va ldi tffc cd phie'u vdi dao ddng gia cd phie'u cd tac ddng ngffdc chieu. Ben canh do, ciing CO cac ye'u to khac tac ddng cung chieu len dao ddng gia cd phie'u, nhff: bie'n quy mo cdng ty va ldi nhuan.
Cdn Pham Thi Yen Nhi (2015) nghien cffu anh hffdng cua chinh sach cd tiJc den bie'n ddng gia cd phieu cac cdng ty niem yet tren thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam giai doan nghien effu tff 2009- 2013 vdi dff lieu nghien cffti la dff lieu bang vdi 825 quan sat bao gdm 165 cdng ty thudc ta't ca cac nganh nghe niem yet tren hai san chffng khoan HOSE va HNX. Nghien cffu ket luan rang, chinh sach cd tffc anh hffdng de'n bie^n ddng gia cd phie'u, thdng qua dd anh hffdng den gia tri cua doanh nghiep.
PhUOngphdp nghien cdu
Nghien cffu su" dung cac dff Ueu ve bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (PV), chinh sach CO tffc (ty sua't cd tffc (DY), ty le chi tra cd tffc (POR), nd cua doanh nghiep (LEV), tang trffdng tai san (ASg), thay ddi ldi nhuan (EV), quy md doanh nghiep (SZ)) cua 97 cdng ty thupe nganh cdng nghiep, trong dd 38 cdng ty thudc san HOSE va 59 cdng ty thudc san HNX dffdc thu thap tff website: https://www.hsx.vn, https://
www.hnx.vn. Cac cdng ty dffdc chpn la cac cdng ty niem yet giai doan trffdc nam 2010 va cd It nha't mdt nam chi tra cd tffc va niem yet khdng gian doan trong
BANG 1: P H A N TICH TCTCfNG QUAN
. c o r r pv dy por l e v asg ev sz
!obs=776)
pv dy por l e v a s g ev sz
pv dy por l e v asg ev
1.0000
0.0736 1.0000 - 0 . 0 0 4 6 0,1616 1.0000
0.0124 - 0 . 0 1 2 3 0,0157 1,0000 0,1061 - 0 , 0 0 7 4 - 0 , 0 9 7 0 0,1742 1.0000 0,0895 - 0 , 0 2 8 5 - 0 , 0 4 9 6 - 0 , 0 3 8 1 - 0 , 0 6 9 5 1,0000 - 0 , 0 1 9 1 - 0 , 0 8 8 4 - 0 , 0 2 0 4 0,3564 0,1872 - 0 , 0 1 9 9
sz
1,0000
Nguon: Tinh toan cua nhom tac gia
khoang thdi gian 2010-2017. Ben canh dd, cac chi tieu cdn dffdc cung cap bdi trung tam dff lieu khoa tai chinh, Vietstock, Cophieu68 va dffdc kiem tra dd'i chie^u vdi cac bao cao tai chinh, bao cao tai chinh hdp nha't da kiem toan dffdc cdng bd' tren cac phffdng tien thdng tin dai chung. Tff dd, cac dff lieu thd dffdc tdng hdp, tinh toan va sap xep theo dang dff lieu bang lam cd sd dff lieu cho viec thifc hien md hinh. Ta't ca cac md hinh va ky thuat kiem dinh deu dffdc thffc hien dffa tren phan mem STATA 12 (Bdi vie't sd dung cdch vie't sd thdp phdn theo chudn qud'c te).
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
Phdn tich tUOng quan gida cdc bien
Bang 1 the hien sff tffdng quan giffa cac bie^n, sff tffdng quan cho biet mffe dp lien he giffa hai bien so, ehang han bien so nay thay ddi de'n mffe dp nao thi bie'n sdkia thay ddi. Chi sdnay dao ddng tff -1 den -i-l.
Cu the nhff sau:
Bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (PV) va bie'n ty sua't cd tffc (DY) cd md'i tffdng quan dffdng vdi he so'tffdng quan la 0.0736. Dieu nay dffdc hieu la bien ddng gia cd phieu nganh cdng nghiep d Viet Nam cd quan he ciing chieu vdi ty sua't cd tffc.
Bien ddng gia cd phieu (PV) va bien ty le chi tra (POR) cd md'i tffdng quan am vdi he so' tffdng quan la -0.0046 cung ddng nghia la bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u nganh cdng nghiep d Viet Nam cd quan he ngffdc chieu vdi ty le chi tra cd tffc.
Bien quy md cdng ty (SZ) va bie'n bien ddng gia cd phie'u (PV) cd tffdng quan am vdi gia tri -0.0191 the hien mdt sff gia tang trong quy md se lam giam bien ddng gia cd phieu.
Nd dai ban tren tdng tai san (LEV) va bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (PV) cua cdng ty cd md'i tffdng quan dffdng vdi gia tri la 0.0124. Nghia la mdt sif gia tang trong np vay se din tdi mdt sff gia tang trong bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u, vi cac cdng ty cd ddn bay nd cang cao, thi riii ro tai chinh cang cao, gia cd phie'u cang bien ddng.
Dieu nay cd the giai thich la do nhffng cdng ty cd vay nd cao se phai ganh chiu mdt chi phi kiet que tai chinh ldn khi kinh doanh thua Id, dieu nay lam anh hffdng tdi tam ly cua nha dau tff. Vi vay, hp se cd nhffng phan ffng thai qua sau khi cd nhffng cdng bd thu nhap khdng nhff mong mud'n din tdi bie'n ddng cao trong gia cd phie'u. Bang 1 cung cho thay, nd dai ban tren tdng tai
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BANG 2: KET QUA HOI QUY MO HINH (1) THEO PHCTCiNG PHAP (fCJC LCTdNG POOLED OLS, FEM vA REM
DY
POR
_cons
N Ghi chu
PooLed OLS (1) PV 123.0*
(2.10) -0.00386 (-0.47) 0.667***
(54.29) 776
FEM(l) PV 268.1***
(4.41) 0.0475**
(0.59) 0.646***
(55.89) 776
REM (1) PV 197 3***
(3.41) 0.00102***
(0.13) 0.656***
(41.85) 776
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
BANG 3: KET QuA HOI QUY MO HINH (2) THEO PHCfdNG PHAP (fCJC LCTdNG POOLED OLS, FEM VA REM
DY
POR
LEV
ASg
EV
SZ
Ghi chu
PooLed OLS (2) PV
119.9*
(2.05) -0.000236 (-0.03) 0.0197 (0.24) 0.107**
(3.23) 0.461**
(2.78) -0.00736 (-0.93)
FEM (2) PV
188.5**
(3.01) 0.00772 (0.98) 0.104 (0.71) 0.151***
(4.48) 0.116 (0.62) -0.140***
(-4.52)
REM (2) PV
193 7***
(3.35) 0.00335 (0.43) 0.0238 (0.24) 0.107***
(3.38) 0.311 (1.82) -0.0165 (-1.51)
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Nguon: Tinh toan cua nhom tac gia
san (LEV) va quy md cdng ty (SZ) cd mdi tffdng quan dffdng vdi he sd tffdng quan la 0.3564. Dieu nay ngu y rang, cac cdng ty quy md ldn hdn cd ddn bay nd cao hdn bdi yi cac cdng ty ldn cd kha nang tiep can thi trffdng vd'n d l dang hdn.
Bie'n ddng ldi nhuan va bie'n ddng gia cd phieu cd md'i tffdng quan dffdng vdi gia tri 0.0895.
Nhin chung, giffa cac bien cd suf tffdng quan d mffe phii hdp, khdng cd bien nao tffdng quan d mffe ldn hdn 0.7, do dd cd the loai bd hien tffdng da cdng tuye'n d md hinh.
Ket qud md hinh hoi quy
Bang 2 md ta ket qua hdi quy theo 3 phffdng phap Pooled OLS, FEM va REM. Vdi phffdng phap ffdc Iffdng Pooled OLS, ta tha'y tai mffe y nghia 5%, p-value
< 0.05 thi he so cua bie'n DY cd y ngbia thd'ng ke. Tuy nhien, he sd cua bie'n ddc lap POR cd p-value > 0.05, khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke.
Ke't qua hdi quy theo FEM khac vdi theo Pooled OLS, cho tha'y he so' eua bien DY cd y nghia thd'ng ke tai mffe y nghia 0.1%, p-value < 0.05. He so' cua bien DY la 268.1, ty sua't cd tffc tac ddng cung chieu de'n bie'n ddng gia chffng khoan. Dieu nay cd nghia la, khi cac nhan td khac khdng ddi, ty sua't cd tffc tang 1%, thi bien ddng gia chffng khoan tang 268.1%.
Tffdng tff vdi ke't qua hdi quy theo REM cho tha'y, he so cua bien DY cd y nghia thd'ng ke tai mffe y nghia la 0.1%, p-value < 0.05. Cung gid'ng nhff ke't qua cua 2 phffdng phap hdi quy trffdc. Bie'n DY ed tae ddng cung chieu vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (197.3) va bie'n POR khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke.
Bang 3 md ta ke't qua hdi quy theo 3 phffdng phap Pooled OLS, FEM va REM sau khi da them vao 4 bie'n kiem soat la:
LEV, ASg, EV, SZ. Theo phffdng phap ffdc Iffdng Pooled OLS, ta tha'y tai mffe y nghia 6.1%, p-value < 0.05 thi he sdcua bie'n POR ed y nghia thd'ng ke. Trai lai, he so' cua bie'n ddc lap DY cd p-value >
0.05, khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Cac he so' cua cae bie'n kiem soat ASg, EV deu cd y ngbia thd'ng ke. He sd'eua bie'n kiem soat SZ, LEV khdng cd y nghia thdng ke.
Ke't qua hdi quy theo FEM cho tha'y, he sd cua bie'n ty sua't ed tffc DY tac ddng cung chieu den bie'n ddng gia chffng khoan (188.5) va cd y nghia thdng ke.
Bie'n khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke la POR, du cd tac ddng cung chieu vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (0.008). Hai bie'n kiem soat ASg va SZ cd tac ddng lan Iffdt la cung chieu va ngffdc chieu vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u, vdi he so hdi quy lan Iffdt la 0.15 va -0.14. Hai bie'n kiem soat cdn lai la LEV va EV ciing cd tac ddng cung chieu vdi bie'n phu thudc, nhffng khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke.
Ke't qua hdi quy theo REM cho tha'y, he sd'eua bie'n ty sua't cd tffc DY tac ddng cung chieu de'n bie'n ddng gia chffng khoan (193.7), cd y nghia thd'ng ke.
Nhan td cdn lai trong chinh sach cd tffc cung cd y nghia thd'ng ke ke tie'p la POR, cd tac ddng cung chieu vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (0.004). Hai bie'n kiem soat ASg, EV deu cd tac ddng eiing chieu vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u, vdi he sd'hdi quy lan Iffdt la 0.11 va 0.31. Bie'n kiem soat LEV cd tac ddng cung chieu vdi bien phu thudc (0.019). Bie'n SZ cd tae ddng ngffdc chieu vdi bie'n phu thupe (-0.016).
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Kinh te va DiT baoKiiihlc vaDiHiao
LUa chgn md hinh phii hgp
Bang 4 trinh bay ke't qui kiem dinh giffa cac phffdng phap ffdc Iffdng nhff sau:
Kiem dinh F-test ed Prob > F = 0.0000
< 0.05, bae bd gid thuye't H^, vi the giffa 2 phffdng phap thi FEM thich hdp hdn so vdi Pooled OLS.
Prob > chibar2 = 0.0000 < 0.05, bac bd gia thuye't H^, vi the giffa 2 phffdng phap thi REM thich hdp hdn so vdi Pooled OLS.
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 < 0.05, vi the giffa 2 phffdng phap thi FEM thieh hdp hdn so vdi REM cho ca 2 md hinh (1) va md hinh (2).
Kiem tra Men tUOng phUOng sai sai sdthay ddi vd tU tUOng quan
Kiem dinh Modified Wald: Bang 5 cho tha'y Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 < 0.05. Do dd vdi mffe y nghia 5%, chung ta bac bd gia thuye't HQ Khdng ed phffdng sai sai so thay ddi, nen cd hien tffdng phffdng sai sai sd' thay ddi trong md hinh (1) va md hinh (2).
Kiem dinh Wooldridge: Bang 5 cho thay, Prob > F = 0.0060 va Prob > F = 0.0089 deu be hdn 0.05. Do dd, vdi mffe y nghia 5%, chung ta cd cd sd bac bd gia thuyet HQ, nen cd hien tffdng tif tffdng quan trong md hinh (1) va md hinh (2).
Khdc phue hien ticgng phUOng sai sai sdthay doi vd hien tUOng tU tUOng quan Bang 6 trinh bay ke't qua md hinh hdi quy theo phffdng phap GLS cho md hinh (1) va md hinh (2).
Md hinh (1): Md'i quan he cung chieu va cd y nghia d mffe 5% giffa ty sua't cd tiJc va bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (110.7) vin dffdc duy tri. Md'i quan he cung chieu va khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke giffa ty le chi tra cd tffc va bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u (0.00345) vin dffdc duy tri. Tdm lai, ke't qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, bie^n ty sua't cd tffc dai dien cua chinh sach cd tffc CO tac ddng de'n bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u.
Md hinh (2): Tffdng tff md hinh (1), mdi quan he cung chieu va cd y nghia oi mffe 5% giffa ty sua't cd tffc va bie'n dong gia cd phieu (110.3) vin dffdc duy tri. Md'i quan he ciing chieu va khdng CO y nghia giffa ty le chi tra cd tffc va bien ddng gia cd phie'u (0.00494) vin dffdc duy tri. Hay ndi each khac, ket qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, ca 2 dai dien eua chinh sach cd tffc deu ed tac ddng den bie'n done gia cd phieu. ^
Md'i uan he cting chieu va khdng ed y nghi- giff^ ^^^^ ^^'"'S §^^ ^^ phie'u va
BANG 4: KET QuA KIEM DINH LCfA CHQN MO HINH THICH HCJP Ki^m dinh
F-test
Breusch-Pagan Lagrangian Hausman
Kg't qua
Prob > F = 0.0000 Prob > chibar2 = 0.0000 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Ghi chu:
- Kiem dinh F-test dilng de lUa chon mo hinh OLS hay FEM thich hdp hdn;
- Kiem dinh Breusch-Pagan dung de lUa chon mo hinh OLS hay REM thich hdp hdn;
- Kiem dinh Hausman dilng de lUa chon mo hinh REM hay FEM thich hdp hdn.
BANG 5: KET QUA KIEM D[NH HIEN TlltifiG PHCTCiNG SAI SAI SO THAY DOI vA HIEN TC/^NG TCf TCTCiNG QUAN CHO MO HINH (1) VA MO HINH (2)
Ki^m dinh Modified Wald
Wooldridge
K6't qua (1) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Prob > F = 0.0060
Kg't qua (2) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Prob > F = 0.0089 Ghi chii:
- Kiem dinh Modified Wald dUdc suf dung de kiem tra phiTdng sai thay do'i;
- Kiem dinh Wooldridge du'dc suf dung de kiem tra hien tu'dng tif tu'dng quan.
BANG 6: BANG KET QUA HOI QUY THEO PHlTCiNG PHAP GLS CHO MO HiNH (1) VA MO HINH (2)
DY
POR
LEV
ASg
EV
SZ
Ghi chu
GLS (1) PV
110.7*
(1.97) 0.00345 (0.54)
GLS (2) PV
110.3*
(1.96) 0.00494 (0.77) 0.0457 (0.52) 0.0758*
(2.55) 0.178 (0.93) -0.00756 (-0.85)
*p<0.05, **p<0.01,***p<0 001 Nguon: Tinh toan ciia nhom tac gia
ty le nd dai ban tren tdng tai san cung phii hdp vdi ky vpng (0.0457). Ket qua cho tha'y, cac cdng ty nganh cdng nghiep ddng nd nhieu hdn thi rui ro se cao hdn, din de'n bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u tang.
Giffa bien ddng gia va tang trffdng tai san cd md'i quan he cung chieu, cd y nghia thdng ke va phii hdp vdi ky vpng (0.0758). Dieu nay cd nghia la khi tang trffdng tai san cua cac cdng ty nganh cdng nghiep tang len 1%, cac ye'u td'khac khdng ddi thi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u tang 0.0758%.
Ngoai ra, Bang 6 cdn cho tha'y, md'i quan he ngffdc chieu (-0.00756) khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke giffa bien ddng gia cd phie'u va quy md cdng ty, dung vdi
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ky vpng. Dieu nay cd y nghia la cac cdng ty nganh cdng nghiep cd quy md ldn thi gia cd phie'u se it bie'n ddng hdn.
Hdn nffa, cung phu hdp vdi mong dpi giffa bien ddng gia cd phie'u va bien ddng thu nhap ed md'i quan he cung chieu khdng ed y nghia (0.178). Dieu nay ngu y rang, cac cdng ty nganh cdng nghiep cd bie'n ddng ldn ve thu nhap, thi gia ed phie'u cua cdng ty cung bie'n ddng nhieu hdn vi bie^n ddng thu nhap cao cho tha'y rui ro cao.
KET LUAN VA MOT SO DE XUAT
Ket ludn
Thd nhdt. Men Ty sudt cotdc (DY): Ke't qua hdi quy d hai md hinh cho tha'y, bien ty sua't cd tffc cd quan he ddng bie'n vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phieu. Dieu nay cd y nghia rang, khi cac doanh nghiep cd ty sua't cd tffc cang tang, thi gia cd phie'u cung gia tang va khi ty sua't cd tffc giam, thi gia cd phie'u giam.
Thd hai, Ty le chi trd cotdc (POR): Ke't qua md hinh hdi quy d hai md hinh deu tffdng quan dffdng, tuy nhien lai khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Ke't qua nay cd the dffdc giai thich nhff sau: ty le chi tra cd tffc cao, tuy nhien so vdi gia tri dau tff lai khdng dffdc hap din bang cac kenh dau tff khac. Cho nen chi tieu nay chffa hap din dffdc nha dau tff, do dd, gia ed phie'u it bi anh hffdng bdi chi tieu nay.
Thd ba, Ng cua doanh nghiep (LEV): Ke't qua md hinh hdi quy cho tha'y, bien nd cua doanh nghiep tffdng quan dffdng vdi bien ddng gia cd phie'u, tuy nhien khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Ke't qua nay eho tha'y, nha dau tff chu y de'n cac cdng ty dung nd nhieu hdn, thi rui ro se cao hdn ddng nghia vdi cd hdi nhieu hdn, dan den bien ddng gia cd phieu tang.
Thd tu, Tdng trudng tdi sdn (ASg): Bien tang trffdng tai san tang - giam 1 ddn vi, thi gia cd phieu tang - giam 0.0758 ddn vi va cd y nghia thd'ng ke mffe 5%. Nhdm tac gia nhan tha'y, md'i tffdng quan dffdng giffa td'c dp tang trffdng tai san vdi bien ddng gia cd phie'u, nhffng cdng ty dang cd td'c dp tang trffdng cao se cd xu hffdng chi tra cd tffc ldn hdn. Vi vay, td'c dp tang trffdng tai san cd xu hffdng cung chieu vdi bien ddng gia cd phie'u.
Thd ndm, Thay doi lai nhuan (EV):
Ke't qua md hinh hdi quy cho tha'y, bien thay ddi ldi nhuan cd md'i Wdng quan dffdng vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phieu, tuy nhien, bie'n nay lai khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Ke't qua nay cd y nghia la cac cdng ty cd bie'n ddng ldn ve ldi nhuan, thi gia cd phie'u cua cdng ty cung bie'n ddng nhieu hdn vi bie'n ddng ldi nhuan eao eho tha'y rui ro cao.
Thdc sdu, Quy md doanh nghiep (SZ):
Ket qua md hinh hdi quy cho tha'y, bie'n quy md doanh nghiep cd mdi tffdng quan am vdi bie'n ddng gia cd phie'u, tuy nhien bie'n nay lai khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke.
Nhdng ggi y ve chinh sdch
Mgt Id, chinh sach ed tffc vdi ty le chi tra tha'p hoac ed the khdng chi tra cd tffc la phu hdp vdi cac doanh nghiep tren thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam, dac biet la cac doanh nghiep nhd va vffa, eac doanh nghiep ed td'c dp tang trffdng nhanh.
Hai Id, cac doanh nghiep tai Viet Nam hay cu the hdn la cae doanh nghiep trong linh vffc cdng nghiep tren thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam nen can nhac that ky Iffdng trffdc khi ra mdt quyet dinh sff dung nd cho doanh nghiep cua minh, vi dieu nay ed the se anh hffdng tdi sff bien ddng gia ed phie'u.
Ba Id, cac doanh nghiep nganh cdng nghiep tren thi trffdng chiJng khoan Viet Nam nen dieu chinh tdc dp tang trffdng tai san hdp ly de gia cd phie'u tang mdt each hdp ly. Tuy nhien, toe dp tang trffdng bao nhieu de gia cd phie'u tang td'i da, thi can cd them cac nghien cffu khac chi tie't hdn.
Bd'n Id, cac doanh nghiep nen cd mffe thay ddi ldi nhuan nhd de giam rui ro trong kinh doanh.
Ndm Id, cac doanh nghiep khdng nen gia tang quy md qua mffe de tranh anh hffdng de'n gia cd phieu. •
TAI LIEIJ THAM KHAO
1. Pham Thi Yen Nhi (2015). Anh hudng cda chinh sdch cd titc de'n bie'n dgng gid cd phie'u cdc cdng ty niem yet tren thi trudng chdng khodn Viet Nam, Khda luan tdt nghiep dai hoc, Trffdng Dai hpc Ngan hang TP. Hd Chi Minh
2. Vd Xuan Vinh (2014). Chinh sach cd tffc va dao ddng gia cd phie'u tren thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam, Tqp chi Kinh tevd Phdt trien, sd 203, thang 5/2014
3. Allen D. E, Rachim V. S. (1996). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: Austrahan Evidence, Journal of Applied Economics, 6, 175-188
4. Baskin, J. (1989). Dividend policy and the volatility of common stock. Journal of Portfolio Management, 15, 19-25
5. Jecheche, Petros (2012). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: a case of the Zimbabwe stock exchange, 7oMma/ of Finance & Accountancy, 10, 1-13
