TAlCHJNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
NHtfNG YEU TO TAG DONG DEN Mifc CHI TRA CO TlfC BANG TIEN CUA
CAC DOANH NGHIEP NIEM YET TREN THI TRlJCfNG CHlfNG KHOAN VIET NAM
• NGUYEN HOANG PHI NAM - PHAN THj THANH PHgNG N G U Y I N THj HOA - TRAN THj THANH HAN
TOM TAT:
Bai vie't nghien cu'u va xac dinh cac ye'u to' tac dong den miJc chi tra cd tiJc bang ti^n cua cac doanh nghiep niem yS"! (lay du" lieu 210 doanh nghiep) tren Sd Giao dich chd'ng khoan TP.
HCM (HOSE) va Sd Giao dich chd'ng khoan Ha N6i (HNX), trong giai doan 2013 - 2016 thong qua phu'dng phap dinh lu'Ong va phu'dng phap hoi quy. Ke't qua nghien cd'u cho thCy cac yeu to:
(1) Qui mo cua doanh nghiep, (2) Chi so' gia thi tru'dng tren gia tri sd sach cua cd phie'u (PB), (3) KhS nang sinh ldi va (4) Chi phi thue' thu nhap doanh nghiSp co tac dong tich cifc dd'n md'c chi tra cdtiJc bang tien. NgUcfclai, cac ye'u td bao gdm: (1) Thu nhSp tren mSicd phie'u, (2) Kha nang thanh toan ng^n han (LQ), (3) Don biy tai chinh co tac dong ngUdc chilu vdi md'c chi tra cd td'c. Ngoai ra, nghien cu'u cung phat hien ye'u td riii ro biS'n dong gid cd phie'u va miJc chi tra cd td'c bang tien khong c6 m6^i tu'dng quan.
Tilf khda: Chi tra cd tiJc bang ti^n, San Giao dich chd'ng khoan TP. HCM, San Giao dich chd'ng khodn Ha Noi.
LNhiJng ye'u t6tic dOng den mu'c chia cd ttfc bang tiln
1.1. Quy mo doanh nghiip (LA)
Chinh sach chi tra cd td'c d cac quS'c gia deu co ttfdng quan manh me vdi quy md cua cac doanh nghiep (DN). NhiJng DN cd quy mo Idn se tra cd ttfc cao hdn va ngiTdc lai cac DN cd quy mo nhd hcfn thi tra cd td'c it hdn. Bdi vi cac DN nhd se gap kho khan vl vi6c huy dong vd'n, so vdi cac DN Idn thi kha nang tie'p can thi tru'dng vd'n d6 dang hdn.
1.2. Khd ndng sinh ldi (ROE)
Trtfdc day trong cac nghien cd'u da chi ra ldi nhuan la mot trong nhu'ng ye'u to'quye't dinh quan
trong nha't trong CSCCT. Theo Iy thuye't trat ttf phan hang (Pecking Order Theory), cac DN se thich dtfa nhieu hdn vao quy noi bo hoac ldi nhuan giiJlai, dodd cac DN se cd khuynh htfdng tra itco td'c hdn. Dieu dd cho tha'y, cac DN cd ldi nhuSn cao se thich tra cd tiJc tha'p hdn.
L3. Rui ro bie'n dgng gid co phie'u (PE) Ty so' PE cao cho tha'y cac nha dau ttf dang ky vong tang trtfdng ldi nhuan ttfdng lai cao hdn so vdi cac cong ty cd md'c PE tha'p hdn (Fama va French 1998, Friend va Puckett 1964) Tang cd td'c lam giam nguy cd rui ro ciia ddng tien trong ttfdng lai cho cd ddng va bang each lam nay se lam tang gia
So 12-Thang 9/2018 3 7 9
TAP CHl CONG THIflfNG
CO phie'u va ty le PE. Ty le PE cao cd the lien quan de'n rui ro tha'p => ty le thanh toan cao hdn, trong khi ty le PE tha'p cd the do riii ro cao => ty le thanh toan tha'p hdn.
1.4. Don bdy tdi cliinh (LV)
Ddn bay ciia DN cang cao thi khoan chi tra co tdc se tha'p hdn; dieu nay cd the la do cac giao tfdc nd. Rozeff (1982) chi ra rang cac DN cd LV cao, ty le thanh loan thS'p nham giam chi phi giao dich lien quan de'n tai chinh ben ngoai. Theo Yus- niliyana va Suhaiza (2014), cac DN cd nd cao can nhieu tien hdn de thanh toan nghia vu nd, dan de'n viec giSm md'c cd tdc cho cac cd dong.
1.5. Khd ndng thanh todn ngdn hgn (LQ) Kha nang thanh toan ngan han la ye'u Id'quye't dinh quan trpng cho viec chia cd td'c. Cac DN cd LQ ngan han cao hdn thi se tra co tiJc cao hdn so vdi cdng ty cd LQ tha'p. Cac khoan thanh toan cd tiJc phu thuoc nhieu vao ddng tien vi nd phan anh kha nang tra cd tiJc ciia DN. Mdt DN cd LQ kem
cd nghia la cd ti?c bang tien dtfdc chia tha'p (Ahmed va Javid 2009).
1.6. Ty sdgid thi trUifng tren gid tri so sdch cda cd phie'u (Cd h$i tdng trddng)
Trtfdc day, cd hoi tang trtfdng ciia DN cd vai tro quan trong trong va'n de chia cd tiJc. Cang nhieu DN cd dtf an NPV (Net present value) tich etfc de tai trd thi cang cd nhieu DN cd xu htfdng gitf lai thu nhap va tra it hdn nhtf la cd td'c. Ngtfdc lai, cac DN cd it dtf an d^u ttf hdn thi ho cd nhieu tien hdn de phan phd'i cho co td'c do hg khdng cd cd hdi de phat trien tai chinh. Do do, cd hdi tai chinh Idn hdn se dan den stf lang trtfdng Idn hdn ciia DN va se anh htfdng de'n CSCCT.
1.7. Thu nhdp tren mdi cd phie'u (EPS) Thu nhap tren mdi cd phie'u ddng mot vai tro thie't ye'u trong viec quyet dinh CSCCT. EPS cang cao thi cac DN se cd xu htfdng tra cd tdc cao hdn.
DN dtfa vao ca thu nhap hien tai tren mdi cd phieu va cd tiJc tren mdi cd phie'u de chia cd td'c.
Bang 1. Bang tong hdp cdc bien trong mo hinh nghien cifu Ten bien
MLfccdtLic bang tien (CDSALE) Quy mo cong ty (LA)
Kha nang sinh Idi (ROE) Rui ro bien ddng gia co phieu (PE) Ddn bay tai chinh (LV) Kha nang thanh toan ngan han (LQ)
Ty so gia thj trudng tren gia tn sd sach cua co phieu (PB)
Thu nhap tren mdi co phieu (EPS)
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX)
Tac gia
Wei va Xiao (2009)
Khan va Ahmad (2017)
Denis va Osobov (2007)
Mehta(2012)
Anupam(2012)
Fairis(2012
Smith va Watts (1992); Glen va cdng sy (1995); Foroughi va Fooladi(2011)
Alzomania va Alkhadin (2013), Malik va ctg (2013)
Nuhu (2014)
Cong thQc tinh Co tdc bang tien/ doanh thu thuan (tinh tren mdi co phieu)
Ln(TTS) (Logarit ttf nhien cua gia tri ghi so' tdng tai san cua cdng ty).
ROE = Loi nhuan sau thue / von chu sd hOu
Gia thj trudng ciJa co phieu/EPS
(Tdng nai Tdng tai san)
Tai san ngan han/ Nd ngan han
Gia thi trudng cua cd phieu /Gia tn ghi so cua CO phieu
(Thu nhap rdng - co tdc cd phieu tfu dai)/luc)ng co phieubinh quan dang Itfu thdng.
(ThueTNDN hien hanh/Doanh thu thuan)
Dau dtf kien
(*)
(+)
(+)
(-)
(+)
(+)
(+)
( • )
380 So 12-Thdng 9/2018
TAI CHINH-NGANHAIV6-BAD HIEM
1.8. Thue thu nhdp doanh nghidp (TAX) Thue thu nhap DN cang cao thi md'c chi tra CO td'c se cang cao. TheoRafique (2012), mdi quan he giffa TAX vdi ty 16 chi ti-a cd tiJc U md'i quan he tich ctfe.
2. Mo hinh nghidn cu'u
Dtfa tren mo hinh nghien cd'u cua Anupan (2012) va Faris Nasit" (2012), Khan va Ahmad (2017), de tai ap dung md hinh nghien cdu dtfdi day.
CDSALE =f(EPS, LA, LQ, LV, PB, PE, ROE, TAX) Mo hinh: CDSALE,, = a + P,*EPSi,
+ P2*LAit+ p3*Wit + p4''LVi, + Ps'^PBi, + P6*PEi, + pj'^ROEii + ^8j*TAXi, + Ui, 3. PhSn tich ke't qua nghign cu'u 3.1. Thdng ke mo td (Bang 2) 3.2. Ke't qud nghien cdu thiic nghiem vd kiem dinh mo hinh
3.2.1. Ma trdn tu tuong quan (Bdng 3) Dtfa vao ma tran dtfdc trinh bay trong Bang 3 cd the tha'y, md'i quan he giffa cac bien doc lap la khdng chat che (he so'ttfdng quan < 0.5). Tuy nhien, md'i ttfdng quan giffa hai bien ROE va EPS la 0.78, dii v§n < 0.8, nhtfng dd than trong hdn, lac gia tien hanh kidm tra hien ttfdng ttf ttfdng quan dtfa vao he sd Durbin Watson va kiem tra hien ttfdng da cdng tuyen bang he sd VIF.
3.2.2. Lua chon md hinh hdt qui (Bdng 4).
Bang 4 trinh bay ba md hinh hoi qui Pooled OLS, FEM va REM.
^rLt
!D 05 T- CT> O O )
Bang 5. Kiem djnh Hausman test Test summary Chl- sq. Chi
-sq.d.f.
Nguon: Kel qud phdn tick dd lieu td phdn mem Eviews Theo ket qua d Bang 5, g\i tri P-value = 0 < 5% nen ke't luan md hinh FEM phu hdp hdn REM.
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TAP CHi CONG THIfdNt
Correlation CDSALE
EPS LA LQ LV PB PE ROE TAX
CDSALE 1 0.118399 0 027278 0.41472 -0 322624 0.205049 -0.08011 0.17565 0.29328
EPS
1 0.07893 0.12712 -0.2156 0.54147 -0.1961 0.78655 0.26616
Bang 3 LA
1 -0.093 0.34022 0.23299 0.09279 0.04034 0.16145
M a tran he so ti/dng q u a n LQ
1 -0.5705 0.0681 0.01803 0.10862 0.26569
LV
1 -0.1608 -0 0349^
-0.1986 -0 263
PB
1 -0.0118 0.47498 0.17683
PE
1 -0.1447 -0.0128
ROE
1 0.2335
TAX
1 Ngudn: Kel qud phdn tich du lieu tif phdn mem Eviews
Bang 4. Ba mo hinh ho! qui
Variable
C EPS
LA LQ LV PB PE ROE TAX
Pooled OLS Coetncient -0.028118 -0.000007 0.003313 0.015996 -0 048186 0 018486 -0.000496 0.115508 0 356502
Prob.
0 324500 0.000000 0.148500 0.000000 0.007000 0 000000 0 000300 0.000500 0.000000
FEM Coetficlent -0.232442 -0.000008 0.025485 -0.004750 -0.136500 0.010083 -0.000187 0.072690 0.275052
Prob.
0.024100 0.000100 0.001000 0.036400 0.000000 0 044900 0.122800 0.039900 0.000100
REIUI CoetDclent -0.026517 -0.000007 0.007403 0.005171 -0.106989 0.014447 -0.000314 0.085557 0.298733
Prob 0.001700 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
Bang 6. Likelihood test Effects Test statistic I d.f Cross-section F 5.070357 -209,622
Cross-section Chi-square
Ngudn. Ket qud phdn tich td phdn mem
Nguon: Ket qud phdn tich dd lieu tdphdn mem Eviews
Dtfa vao Bang 6, cho tha'y gia tri P-value = 0 <
5%, do dd md hinh FEM phia hdp hdn Pooled OLS.
3.3. Kiem dinh khuye't tat cua md hinh nghien cdu (Bdng 7).
3.3.1. Hien tuang tU tUcfng quan
I Dtfa vao ke't qua trong Bang 7, ta tha'y he sd
^ Durbin - Watson stat = 2.2, nhtf vay khdng cd hien I ttfdng ttf ttfdng quan
dd lieu 3.3.2. Hien lUpng da cong tuyen (Bdng 8).
Eviews Ke't qua trong Bang 8 che tha'y he sd VIF cfia Prob
0
382 Sd 12-Thang 9/201
TAI GHJNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
Bang 7. M o hinh FEM Dependent Variable: CDSALE
Method: Panel Least Squares Date' 04/10/18 Time: 19:18 Sample: 2013 - 2016, Periods included: 4 Cross-sections Included: 210 Total panel (balanced) observations' 840
Variable C EPS
LA LQ LV PB PE ROE TAX
Coefficient -0.232442 -0.000008 0.025485 -0.004750 -0.136500 0.010083 -0.000187 0.072690 0.275052
Std. Error 0.102837 0.000002 0.007682 0 002266 0.032694 0 005017 0 000121 0.035302 0 067729 Effects Specification
t-Statistic -2.260284 -3.915100 3.317463 -2.096927 -4.175117 2.009940 -1 545204 2.059093 4.061098
Prob.
0 024100 0.000100 0.001000 0 036400 0.000000 0.044900 0.122800 0.039900 0.000100
Cross-section fixed (dummy vanables) R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log llkelitiood F-statlstIc Prob(F-statlstlc)
0.726867 0.631578 0.05484 1.870622 1373.087 7.628008
0
Mean dependent var S.D. dependentvar Akaike info criterion Schwarz cnterion Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
0 047335 0.090349 -2.750206 -1.521776 -2.279388 2.265944
Nguon: Kel qua phdn tich dd lieu tdphdn mem Eviews
Bang 8. He VIF Variable
VIF EPS 3.028367
LA 1.379069
LQ 1.539585
LV 1 9208
PB 1.560049
PE 1.077062
ROE 2.664748
TAX 1 222201
cac bien rat thap. Khdng cd hien itfdng da cdng tuyen.
3.3.3. Ktem dinh cdc t>ien khdng phd hap irong md hinh (bien thda) (Bdng 9).
TiJf Bang 9, ta thay gia tn P-value cua F-statistic
Ngudn: Kel qud phdn tich dd lieu tdphdn mem Eviews
= 0.0001 < 5%, vay bie'n TAX khdng phai la bie'n thij'a.
3.4. Thdo luan ke't qud
Dd'i vdi bie'n EPS, ket qua hdi qui cho thay he sd' beta = -0.000008. cd md'i ttfdng quan ngtfdc
So 12-Thang 9/2018 383
TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
Bang 9. Kiem d|nfi Omitted variable - Lil<ellliood test
t-statistic F-statistic Chi-square
value 4.061098 16.49251 21.98268
df 622 (1,622)
1
Probability 0.0001 0 0001 0 NguSn: Ket qud phdn tich dd lieu Id
phdn mem Eviews
chilu giiJa EPS va mu'c chi tra cd lu'c bang tiln.
Nguyen nhan cd ke't qua tren la de trong giai doan nghien cu'u, nen kinh te' Viet Nam dang tren da tang trtfdng, cac DN tang trtfdng ve mat ldi nhuan cd xu htfdng tai dau ttf de gia tang gia trj hdn la chia CO tiJc chd cac cd' ddng va cac DN cd ldi nhuan giam cd the huy dgng them ngudn vd'n de bd sung vao vo'n kinh doanh td viec phat hanh them cd phie'u.
Dd'i vdi bid'n LA cd he sd' beta = 0.025, cho thCy cd md'i quan he cting chieu giiJa LA vdi md'c chi tra cd tiJc bang lien. Ke't qua tren dtfdc ly giai la do cac DN Idn hdn de dang huy ddng vd'n hdn so vdi cac DN nhd. Vi vay, cac DN nhd se han che mu'c chl tra cd td'c bang lien va ngtfdc lai. Mat khac, cac DN nhd thtfdng mong mudn cd mu'c tang trtfdng nhanh nen han che ve mat ngudn vd'n danh cho cac cd ddng.
Bie'n LQ cd he sd' beta = -0.005, cho tha'y LQ cd tac ddng ngtfdc chilu vdi mu'c chi tra cd td'c.
Nguyen nhan la do cac DN co ty- sd LQ ngan han la nhtfng DN cd tai sin ngan han nhieu nhtfng chii ye'u nam d hang ton kho, cac DN mud'n gia tang hang ton kho thi lai khdng mud'n chi qua nhieu tien cho cac CO ddng va ngtfdc lai.
Dd'i vdi bid'n LV cd he so' beta = -0.1365, cho tha'y cd md'i quan he nghich bie'n giiJa LV va mdc chi tra c6 tiJc bang tien. NguySn nhan do cac DN cd ty le nd cang cao se ddi mat vdi LV vi chi chi phi tai chinh tang cao, do dd cac DN se han che chi tra co ttfc bang lien cho cac cd ddng.
Bie'n PB co he sd'beta = 0.01, nencd md'i quan he cung chieu giffa PB va CDSALE. Vi vay, cac DN cd PB se cd cd hdi tang trtfdng thdng qua gia tri cdng ty tang cao, va dinh ngudn Itfc de phat trien trong ttfdng iai. Ngoai ra, gia tri cd phie'u tang se lam hai long cac cd ddng, dam bao ho khdng gay ap Itfc de cdng ty chi tra cd td'c.
Dd'i vdi bie'n PE cd gia tri beta = -0.000187, khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke,v! vay khdng cd mdi ttfdng quan giUa PE va CDSALE. Nguyen nhan do cac DN cd PE cao khdng anh htfdng de'n CSCCT cua cd ddng do cd tiJc da cam ke't trtfdc dd.
Dd'i vdi bie'n ROE cd he sd beta = 0.0727, vl vay cd mdi quan he cung chieu gitfa ROE va CD- SALE. Nguyen nhan do, thtfc tg' cac DN cd ROE tang se cd md'c chi tra cd' tdc nhieu hdn do cd' tdc da cam kd'l trtfdc dd.
Dd'i vdi bie'n TAX, he sd beta dat 0.275, cho tha'y md'i itfdng quan ciing chieu giffa TAX va CDSALE. Nguyen nhan do chi phi TAX tang nghia la ldi nhuan sau thue' tang, nen cac DN gia tang cac khoan cd td'c tra cho cac co ddng do da thda thuan tff trtfdc.
4. KS't lu3n
Ke't qua nghien cdu cho tha'y: cac ye'u Id' LA, PB, ROE va chi phi TAX cd tac ddng tich etfc de'n mdc chi tra co tdc bang lien. Ngtfdc lai, cac yd'u td EPS, LQ, LV cd tac ddng ngtfdc chieu vdi mdc chi tr^ cd tffc. Ngoai ra, nghien cffu cung phat hien yd'u to' PE va mffc chi tra cd' tffc bang tien khdng cd md'i tffdng quan •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Collins, J., & Kemsley, D. (2000). Capital gains and dividend laxes infirm valuation: Evidence of triple taxation.
The Accounting Review. 75(4), 405 - 427.
2. Faccio, M., Lang. L H., & Young, L. (2001). Dividends and expropriation. American Economic Review, 91(1), 54 -78.
3. Heinkel, R. (1978). Dividend policy as a signal of firm value.Essays on Financial Markets with bnperfect information. Ph D. dissertalion. UC.
TAI CHINH - NGAN HANG - BAO HIEM
4. Jensen, C; Meekling, W. (1976). Theory oflhefirm: Managerial behaviour, agency costs and ownership structure.
JournalofFiiuincialEconomics, 3(4), 305 - 360..
5 Miller, M. H. & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares.ihe Journal of Busmess.34(4).4U-433.
Ngay nhan bai: 17/8/2018
Ngay phan bien danh gia va su'a chffa: 27/8/2018 Ngay cha'p nh§n dang bai: 7/9/2018
Thdng tin tdc gid:
1. ThS. N G U Y I N HOANG PHI NAM
Giang vi&n Khoa Kg" toan - Kiem toan, Trffoing Dai hoc Mcf Thanh phd' Hd Chi Minh 2. PHAN THI THANH PHUNG
S.NGUYfeNTHIHOA 4. TRAN THI THANH HAN
Sinh vi&n Khoa Ke toan - Kig'm toan, Trtfcfng Dai hoc Moi Thanh phd'Ho Chi Minh
FACTORS IMPACT ON THE LEVEL OF CASH DIVIDEND PAYMENT OF LISTED ENTERPRISES
IN VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET
• Master. NGUYEN HOANG PHI NAM Lecturer, Faculty of Accounting and Auditing,
Ho Chi Minh City Open University
• PHAN THI THANH PHUNG - NGUYEN THI HOA - TRAN THI THANH HAN Student, Faculty of Accounting and Auditing, Ho Chi Minh City Open University
ABSTRACT:
This study is to examine and determine factors impacting the level of cash dividend payment of 210 listed enterprises on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) from 20131 o 2016 by implementing quantitative and regression methods. The results show that the level ofcash dividend payment is positively impacted by: (I) Size of the enterprise, (2) Price to book ratio (PB), (3) Profitability and (4) Corporate income tax.
Meanwhile, the factors including (1) Earnings per share, (2) Short-term hquidity and (3) Financial leverage have a negative impact on the the level of cash dividend payment. In addition, the study also finds the risk of out stock price volatility does not have an impact on the level ofcash dividend payment.
Keywords: Cash dividend payment. Ho Chi Minh City Slock Exchange, Hanoi Stock Exchange.
So 12-Thang 9/2018 385
