Cac yeu to anh hiTorng den chi tieu giao due bac dai hoc cua cac ho gia dmh Viet Nam
HOANG THANH NGHj' N G U Y I N M A N H CCldMG"
Tom tat
Nghiin cifu nhdm xdc dmh cdc yeu tddnh hudng den chi tiiu giao due bcic dgi hoc cua cdc ho gia dinh Viet Nam bdng cdch sA dung md hinh Tobit sdliiu mdng, vdi sdlieu thu duac tit cudc diiu tra mdc sdng hd gia dtnh Viet Nam (VHLSS) cdc ndm 2010, ndm 2012 vd nam 2014. Cdc ke't qud cho thdy, Thu nhdp vd cdc ddc diem chu ho, nhif: Tudi, Gidi tinh, Nghe nghiip. Bang cdp chd ho cd dnh hudng de'n Chi tieu gido due.
Ttf k h o a : chi tieu gido due bac dai hoc, mo lunh Tobit, ho gia d'inh S u m m a r y
The study is to identify determinants ofVietnaine.se households' expenditure on higher education, using Tobu model and data collected from Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS). The output clarifies that E.xpenditure education is affected by Income and household characteristics such as Age, Gender. Occupation and Qualification of household bead.
K e y w o r d s : expenditure on higher education. Tobit model, household t G i a i THIEU
De nang cao chat lu'dng ngudn nhan Itfc, can phai nang c a o chat Itfdng va so' lu'dng lao ddng. Dieu dd chi lam dtfdc dUa tren nen tang giao due cd chat litdng. Stf quan lam ciia ho gia dinh de'n giao due cho con em minh cd ihe dUdc xem xet theo mtfc chi tieu giao due ciia ho, Vi vay, vide danh gia Uic ddng cila cac nhan td'duidc dac dieni hd gia dinh den quye't dnih chi lieu giao due I;i mdt
\a'n de can dUdc lUu tam CO so LY T H U Y E T N G H I E N CLfU
VA PHU'ONG P H A P
Casdly thuyet
"fheo Vicn Ttf dien \'a Bach khoa ihu Viet N a m -
\ ' i e n Han liim Khoa hoc Xa hdi Viet N a m . giao due bac diii hpc lii mdt bac diio tao gom cao dang, dai hoc. san dai hoc trong ca'u triic he thd'ng giao due qudc dan. dUdc td chtfc lai d i e liifdng dai hpc. hoc \ i e n . tiep sau bac imng hoc pho thdng. rrung hoc chuyen nghicji. c(f sd dc tlao tao chuyen gia cao cap,
Cac nghien CL?U \ e guio due lir mdi q u a n d i e m kinh le la mdi quan lam \ i nhicu l>' d o . irong dd cd uic dong
• ThS Trirong Cao dang Kinh tc - Ky thuat Dien B
""ThS Tru'dng Dai hoc Kmh te Nghe An
\!,\n nhdn hai 2V04/2III7. .\Qa\ pluin hii'n 1)6/05/2017. :
c u a g i d o d u e v e v i e c g i a m stf miit can b a n g v e thu n h a p ( R a m . 1989). hoac cac md'i q u a n hd gitfa gido d u e va thi tri/dng lao d o n g . N h i e u phtfdng p h a p da du'dc thifc h i e n e h o c a c dd'i tUdng sau dd, tif nghidn ctfu v e ty le loi ttfc cua giao due ( A l - Q u d s i ) dd'n nhffng n g h i e n ctfu sif khdc biel gitfa trinh dd h o c van cOa ngifdi lao d d n g vdi stf cdn thie't cho mdt cdng v i e c cu the ( A l b a - R a m i r e z . 1993)
D c nghien ctfu cac ye'u Id' quye't dinh chi lieu cho g i a o due, nghien ctfu stf dung hi^im cau hd gia dinh cua giao due. Nghien ctfu gia dmh rang, trong mdi ddn vi gia dinh, hd gia dinh. cd tdn tai mot "ngiffJi ra i.|uyet d m h " . qu\Ci dinh bao nhieu dc ciii lieu \ a nhtfng gi dang dUdc IhUc hien v6 cd biin ciia hd. Ngu'di ra quycl djnh ciia Iw i!ia dinh h cd mdt Inim Idi ieir
L i.xJi.E, Ih 1 d o :
II- Uhno 11, hao s d n v •liac
Email: nghicdktSgi
va dich VII.
cua hd gia
62
hjj=l, ...,J): hoat ddng giao due dtfdc thtfc hien bdi so' thinh vien j cua hp gia dinh h trong thdi gian xem xet. Nd'u s6' Itfdng thanh vidn ciaa mdt hd gia dmh dtfdc ky hidu la M, sau do j < M;
E^'. yd'u td' "mdi tnrdng" cd the anh htfdng dd'n ldi ich cua ngUdi ra quye't dinh.
Trong nghien ctfu, ham cau (gid bd qua, vi day la gid'ng nhau cho ti't ca cac hd gia dinh) dffdc the hien nhtf sau:
Cdc quan sal chi tieu hp gia dinh cho gido due cd the thay, ton tai cac hd khdng chi tidu (trffdng hdp khdng di hpc dai hpc, cao ding). Do do, mo hinh Tobit sau day dUdc stf dung-
''^. = K(yi,'^'„'^J (3) Trong dd: ft*^^: la mdt bid'n an theo dinh nghia:
/i^,^ = /i',^nd'u h*^ > 0 h^^^ = 0 ne'u h*^^ = 0 Phuang phdp nghien ciiu Nguon sd' lieu trong nghien ctfu nay dffdc thu thap ttf VHLSS nam 2010, nam 2012 va nam 2014 dUdc ihUc hien bdi Tdng cue Thd'ng kd (GSO) 02 nam mdt Ian, Sau khi stf dung phan mem Stata de ghep nd'i dtf lieu qua cac nam ttf nam 2010 de'n nam 2014, vdi 1,921 hd (Bin vie't stf dung cac vie't sd' thap phan theo chuan qud'c le).
Mo hinh nghien cdu
Delude Iffdng chi tieu cho giao due cao dang, dai hoc ciia cdc hd gia dinh Vict Nam giai doan 2010-2014, nhdm lac stf dung md hinh Tobit sd'lidu mang vdi mau kiem duydt (cac hd gia dinh khdng cd chi tieu cho giao due dffOc kiem duydt).
Md hinh cu the trong nghien ctfu nay dffdc xac dmh nhff sau
CHIGDDAIHOC^^ = //^, + f]fiIOITINH_
CH^^+0JUOl_CH^lfl,HONNHAN__CHl ^ -H 'fl,HdNNHANSH2^ + fLHONNIlANl CH3 +fj^H0NNHAN_CH4 +fiI)AN'rOC_
CH^^ •' ' + /jfAMCONGANLUONG + fij\ONGL\MTHUYS.AN + fl,„KlNHl)OANHDICHVU^^ ' + fl,iIiANGCAP_CH2^^ + " /S^MNGCAP_
CH3^^ + fi/BANGCAP_CH4^^ + fi,p\NGC.\P_CH5^^ + ji^NOISONG^^
+ jfSONAMDANGHOC + f^iSONU DANG HOC^^ + fi^^HOCTHEM^, + ' fiJROC.\I\, + fL,NUOMTHUNH.\P2\
+ ' fi.NHOMTHCNlIAPf + fJ..\H0SiTin:MI.\P4 -!-
fl.NII()Mim'\'H\P5 +r
BANG 1: MO TA TOM TAT CAC BIEN TRONG MO HINH
i* T6n bie'n
CHIGDDAIHOC
GIOITINH^CH
TUOI_CH
HON>fHAN^CHI
H0NNHAN_CH2
H 0 N N H A N _ C H 3
H0NNHAN_CH4
H0NNHAN_CII5
DANTOC_CH
LAMCONGANI-UONG
NONGLA^^^HUYSAN
KINHDOANHDICHVU
BANGCAP^CHI
BANGCAI>_Cil2
BANGCAP_CM,'i
EANGCAI>_CM4
B A N G C A F . C l l s
HOGTI-ir,M
1ROCAP
N'OISONG
SONAMDANGHOC SONUDANGI-iOC M K ) \ n i H \ H \ P 1
N " I K ) \ n i l L . V H \ P 2
N'HOMTIIL \ H \ P ?
N H d M T i l l M U P . 1 M I D X n i H \ M \|>?
M 6 t§L bi^n
Chi aeu clio giSo due cao ding, dai hoc cua hp gia dinh Gicti tinh chu ho (Bien gia. nhan gia trj^l ne'u t h u ho la nam, nhan gia tri-O ne'u chu ho la nH) Tuoi cua chii hp {bien liSn tuc)
C h u h p c h i ^ c 6 v d / c h 6 n g ( b i e n g i a ' nhan gia t n = l neu dang dula co vtl/chong, =0 Irong Inf&ng hdp khSc) Chu hp cd vd/ch^ng (bie'n gi3: nh§n gia l n = l n6u dang cd vcJ/chong, = 0 trong In/cfng hdp khac) Chu h6 gda vcf/chong (biSn gia nhan giii t n ^ l nSii la gda vd/chong, =0 trong tnrtlng hdp khac)
Chu ho da iy hon (bien gia: nhan gia l n = l ne'u chu ho da ly hon, =0 trong tru'dng hdp khac)
Chu ho song ly than (bien gia, nhiin gi^ t i i ^ l ne'u dang iong ly than,=0 Irong lri/(fng hdp khac)
Dan toe chu ho IbiS'n gia: nhiin giil ln=l ne'u la dan ioc kinh, =0 neii la dSn tdc khac)
Chii ho lam cong an hrdng (bie'n gia nhjn gij i n = l ne'u l i lam cong j n lu'dng, =(l trong tru'dng hop khac) Chd ho lam trong linh viic niing, lam Ihuy sin (bie'n
Ihijy siin, =0 Irong tru'dng hdp khac) Chu ho liim Irong ITnh v^c kinh doanh. tlich vu (bien gia' iihSn j:iJ tn =1 ne'u lam (rong linh vifc tinh doanh, dich \ u, =11 trong In/dng hdp khac) Chu ho khdng bhng cap Ibie'n gia nliaii gia in =1 ncii chu ho khong cd b.ing cip, =0 irong trifdng hdp kli.iL) Chu ho toi ngluep lieu hot fbien gia nhan gi j in = 1 neu chii hd tot nghiep ucu hoc, =0 Imng Uirdng hdp khac) Chu ho toi iigluep THCS Ibie'n yia nlian gi,i in =1 neu chu in") tot nyhicp THCS =0 trong UiTdng hdp khac I Chu ho touiyhicpTHPT (bie'n gia n h . l n g i a i i i ^ l neu chu ho ldi nghiep '11 IFI'. =0 Uong Inliing hdp khac) Chu ho tdi nghjcp cao dfmg Ird Icn (bicn giii nhau giii in = 1 neu ciiii hd Ii'il nghiep cao dang n o len, ^ trong tnidng hop khac)
Ho LO tlianh vien d.uig Ih.iin gi.i hoc Ihcm ihion gi.'i ihau gid tn = 1 neu cd it nhai mdi llianll vieii hot them.
^ i K - u khong COI
Ho LO du'dc hu'dng trd i.i'p giao due (bie'n gi.i nh.in gui II 1 bang 1 ncii t o il nha't moi thauh vicn dirdc hu'dng ird c.Vp giao dut, =0 nOii khdmi cd) NOi Miih sfBig CLia hoCbien gia nhan gia 1: i liang 1 neu wiig d lhanh ilii. =<) nein (Tidns! thon 1
Tdng \ d n a m daug hoc Irong lid Ibien hen luct Tong so nif clang h n tiong hdOiicn lieu luc) Thu nhap binh i|u,iu clla :(K,J, ho LO ihii nhap ihap nhal ihunhaphinliqu.MiLu.i:!!--. ho co thu nhap tiling
">inh ihj'p
Thu nhjp binh qu.m .ua :(l'r ho LO IIUI nhap iiuna binh riiu nhap binh t,naULua2(K,hd CO ,luinh.ip,an,L
Thu nhap hmh qu.iiuiia : n - . ho LU thn nhap , ,,o iih.i
Gid tri trong btnb/
tSasufft
I,51fi 1 4 n g h i n d 6 n g 75.54% chu hp la nam 24,46% chu hp l.'i nU 50 2 luS'i 2 2 9 % chii ho chu'a c6 vd hoac chong a i . 3 8 % chu hp dang CO vd/chong 13.95% chia hS gda vd iodc ch6ng
1.727c chii ho da ly i6n
) 66% chu hd dang
80.99% chu ho la dan d c K i n h , 19,01% chu id la dan tpc khac 39-15% chu hp lam cong an lu'dng 58 5 0 % chii hd lam rong linh \ ifc ndng.
20.14',; chii hd lam rong (inh VUL kmh loanh. d i c h \ u . 0 5 5 ' . c h u h d c h u a
d bang cii'p 7 52^. chu ho tdi
1 01)'; c h i i h d i o i g h i c p T H C S 5 07'/f chu hd tdi g h i c p T H P I
.S.'i'U-hi'iholdl ghicj) cao Jang ini Icn
.144',, h d c d i l n h . i i idt lhanh MciihoL
liinh vicn dUit lurdiig
( . 6 5 ' ! d thanh Ihi
; 3 5 ' . dndnLiihou 4 6 ( m a \ = 4i 4 2 l n i a ^ = h
•)76"* i l n-hindnn.. 1 M^^^ 1
l 6 ^ < M y , „ i , , n J 1
- H
0 - • . . - . - _ , „ . J
63
BANG 2: KET QUA tf6C LCTdNG MO HINH TOBIT SO LlgU VA TAG DOMG BIEN
MANG
BiS'ii stf 1H6 5^ hSi qiiT 1 Tac d$ng bi6n I BiSn stf i i ^ ^ ) f f i ^ E « ^ ^ ^ f f l ^ F 7 » c ' d O i i g tm Bien phu thuoc: Chi tidu giao due cfao bac dai ht>c ciia M gia dinh
GIOITINH CH HONNHAiM CH2 HONNHAN CH4 DANTOC CH NONGLAMTHUYSAN BANGCAP CH7 BANGCAP CH4 HOCTHEM NOISONG SONUDANGHOC NH0MTHUNHAP3 NHOMTHUNHAP5
-8,''03.218""
2,760.032 -7,828.381 7,133.19"
4.643.816"
8.333 641"
IS.798.57"
-15,600.01"' 3,233,42"
14,810,14"' 6.042.827' ll,344.59""
-1,357.394"- 456 7049 -1,295.369 1,180.335"
768.4164"
1,378.975"
3.110.616"
-2,581.347'"
535,0368'"
2,450,646'"
906-3483' 1,843,533"' Numberofob.s = 5.381
siema u = I5,]47.''6'"
Los likelihood := -80.92.874
TUOI CH HONNHAN CH3 HONNHAN CHS LAMCONGANLUONG KINHDOANHDICHVU BANGCAP CH3 BANGCAP CH5 TROCAR SONAMDANGHOC NH0MTHUNHAP2 NH0MTHUNHAP4 HSna so'
478.1396"*
-5,229.521 -24.586 27 3.971.131"
5.830.308"' 15.599 1 2 - 16.585,55"' -3.832.585"
15,458.75'"
1,491,166 8,373 075"
-87,020,83'"
79.11818"- -865 3334 -4,068.312 657.1065"
964.7461- 2,581.2- 2,744,426- -634.1812"
2,557 972"' 209 296 1,300,4(M"
Number of "roups = 1.852 sisma e = 11.715.81- rho= -62,56876
Vdi
^,„r-..r^,,„r,r- \ CHIGDDAIHOC iKii CHIGDDAIHOC >0 ' lo neu CHIGDD.4IHOC^<0 Cac bie'n so' siJ d u n g irong n g h i e n ciJu di/dc lorn t a i trong B a n g 1.
KET QUA NGHIEN CLTU VA THAO LUAN Dau iien. m o hinh du'dc u'dc li/dng c h o loan bo m § u n g h i e n cu'u vd] cac bien d o c lap b a o g o m c a c d a c d i e m cua chu h o , d a c d i e m cua h o gia dinh Thi? h a i , toan bo m a u du'dc chia thanh hai k h u vu'c thanh thi va n o n g thon. c a c m o hinh lu'dng lU du'dc u'dc lu'dng n e n g c h o tij'ng khu xuc d e k i e m tra lai m 6 i k h u vifc a n h hu'dng cua c a c bien doc l a p tdi bien p h u t h u o c cd k h a c n h a u k h o n g \ a khac nhau nhU the n a o ?
Kei q u a B a n g 2 cho lha'\. c a c bien v e H o n n h a n chu h o . n h o m 2 0 % ngu'di co thu n h a p trung binh t h a p la k h o n g co y nghia thong ke T h e o d o . da'u ciia h e so' g o c c u a Bang c a p chu ho m a n g da'u dirdng la phii h d p
\ d i k\ \ o n g ban d a u
Gidi linh chu ho co \ nghTa thd'ng k e . c h u hp la n a m cd mu'c chi lieu cho giao due tha'p hdn chii ho la ni?. Cu t h e . chu hp la nam gidi irung binh chi lieu c h o g i a o due con cai cLid ho it hdn k h o a n g 1.300.000 d o n g m o t n a m so \ d i chu ho la niJ gidi
Bic'n Tudi cua chu hd c a n g c a o . ihi mdc chi cho g i a o due e j n g lang len Khi lud'i chu ho lang len m d t tuoi trong dicii k i O n e a c \ c u to khac k h d n g doi. ihi mire chi tieu chn LiKiii due c a o d a n g , dai hoe l a n g 7 9 . 0 0 0 d o n g . N g h e n g h i e p cua ehu hd cung cd t a c d d n g n'ch cifc de'n chi lieu eho guio due c a o ddng, dai h n c \ u a hd. t h e o ket qua hdi qu\ .
Cac bien H o e t h e m \ .i dtrde hu'dng lui c a p cd a n h htrdng am de'n chi n e u guio due cua h o . Tuy n h i e n . da'u bien Hoc iheni lai k h d n g gu'i'ng nhu' ky \ o n g , nghTa la hd cd lhanh \ len d a n g iham gia hoc t h i i n . ihi chi nhieu hdn eho guio LIUC. nhilng kc'i q u a d d a \ iai ngUde lai.
C a c h o d a n h so' l i e n n h i e u hdn de chi c h o c a c t h a n h vien n a m di h o c s o vdi cac t h a n h v i e n nu" d a n g di h o c . T u y nhien, sif c h e n h l e c h n a y la k h d n g d a n g k e .
V e c a c bie'n T h u n h a p c u a h o gia dinh vdi c a c t a c d o n g b i e n 6 nhiTng nhdm thu n h a p k h a c n h a u c h o t h a y , c d stf khac biel d a n g k e v e chi p h i c h o g i a o due cao d a n g v a d a i h o c giu'a c a c h p gia dinh cd miJc thu n h a p k h a c n h a u Ciic hd gia dinh c a n g c d thu n h a p c a o . thi cang danh k h o a n chi c h o g i a o d u e n h i e u hdn. Kel q u a n a y ciang h o a n loan phCi h d p vdi cac n g h i e n ciJu tru'dc d a y .
Ndi sinh sd'ng cua hd gia dinh !a thanh thi h a y n d n g thon ciJng cd a n h hu'dng de'n chi lieu cho g i a o due c a o dang, dai hoc cua h g d m i j ' c 5 % , cac hd gia dinh song d lhanh Ihi d a n h k h o a n chi nhieu hdn so vdi cac ho gia dinh sd'ng d ndng thon (Bang 3).
T h e o ke't q u a lir B a n g 3 cho iha'y.
c h e n h lech chi lieu giiJa chu hd la nam vdi na d thanh ihi nhieu h d n so vdi ndng Ihdn Dd'i vdi c i c bie'n v e N g h e nghiep ehi! ho cung e h o iha'y. & c a c lhanh thi d a n h U i o a n chi g k i o due nhieu hdn so vdi (•( ndng Ihdn ddi \ I'd e u n g mdt tham chieu.
Bang cap chii hd cd < nghTa Ihd'ng ke doi vdi ca khu \ ue ihanh ihi va ndng ihdn. Cac hd d khu vu'c ihiinh tin m a c h u l i d cd irinh dd guio due cao chi nhicu hdn rai nhicu so
\ ,'i] eae hd d ndng i)io„ C o mdt dicu ihiJ \ i la. eliu hd 101 nghidp e a p 3 d lhanh ihi lai ehi nhicu hdn sc u'ii J i i , ho ,di nnhiep cao dang trd len, irong khi dn d ndng ihdn hai gui Iri nay kha c i n b;Tng nhan
Cdn mdi dicu Ihii ^ a h , ; _ khi v c m x e l den s o n a m d a n g d i hoL .. - .••crdanszdi
64
hpc. 6 thanh thi, neu tang m6t ni? di hoc trong dieu kiSn cac yeu to khac khdng ddi, thi so'tien chi cho giao due ciia hd lai tang khoang 3,700,000 nghin dong, trong khi dd'i vdi nam dang di hoc la khoang 3,462,000 dong. Nghia la so' tiin d^u tir cho nS di hpc lai nhieu hdn s6' tien dau ttf cho nam di hoc. O ndng thdn lai ngu'dc lai. Dieu do cho tha'y, v5n cdn ba't binh dang nam - niJ cho con cai di hpc d trinh dp cao cua hp gia dinh d nong thdn.
Thu nhap cua hd gia dinh chi cd y nghia thd'ng ke do'i vdi nhifng nhdm thu nhap cao. SLT chenh lech ve lu'dng chi tieu cho giao due giiJa nhom thu nhap cao nhat vdi nhdm thu nhap tha'p nha't d nong thdn lai cao hdn 6 thanh thi. Nhulig d nhdm ihu nhap trung binh cao (nhom 4) so vdi nhdm ihu nhap tha'p nhal (nhdm 1) d thanh thi lai cao hdn d nong thdn. Cd the thay, ddi vdi nhiJng ho gia dinh giau nha't d ndng thdn san sing bd lien nhieu hdn de dau tiT vao giao due dai hoc cho con era ctia ho so vdi nhUng hd gia dinh giau ed d thanh thi
KET LUAN
BAMG 3: TAC DOMG BEEM CUA (TdC La0NG MO HIMH TOBIT SO LIEU MAMG CHO CHI TIEO BAC DAI HQC COA HO GIA DINH THEO KHG V^C THANH TH|,
MOMG THON '^ T&n bid'n
GIOITINH CH TUOI CH HONNHAN CH2 HONNHAN CH3 HONNHAN CH4 HONNHAN CH5 DANTOC CH LAMCONGANLUONG NONGLAMTHUYSAN KINHDOANHDICHVU BANGCAP CH2 BANGCAP CH3 BANGCAP CH4 BANGCAP CH5 HOCTHEM TROCAP SONAMDANGHOC SONUDANGHOC NH0MTHUNHAP2 NHOMTHUNHAP3 NH0MTHUNHAP4 NH0MTHUNHAP5
Thanh thj Dv/dx -1,559.264"
93-32685"'"
3,140.605"
1,681.453 30.51758 -265.8137 197.4443 833,3794- 717.1347' 1.524.662*'"
2,210 I9"
3,836.312""
4.340,804-' 3,7 83.398- -3.573.04I"'
-1,012,549"
3,462 5 4 1 ' "
3.700 062"*
660,7325 808 8037 1,373 998' 1.733 306"
Sai so chudn 472.312 22.17973 1,764.507 1,831.925 2,308.171 3,031,441 754.0386 430.2927 404.8589 420.8181 833.9585 836,8787 851 6755 932 0627 370 6)32 .373.2576 285,4772 296 7138 877 578 845.5584 829.1384 845.1121
None thSn Dy/dx -1,118472"
71.51995- -551071 -1,623,128' -1,573 571 -14,333 97 1,316.855'"
550.4228"
729.6595"
533.7099"' 1,206 665"' 2,248.046'"
2,845.319"' 2,892.755"' -2.187.305"' -393 1716' 2,247 153"' 1,980 074"' 184,0519 952.0883"
1,253.768""
1,918.638"""
Sai so chuan 353.2154 12.12952 799.9156 829.3317 1,218.64 336,734.1 373.2501 231.5608 230.7227 266.3921 360.3214 368.9435 428 4038 608 9726 235 6138 226.8308 175.0134 163,6958 272 4682 289.794 302.7417 339.9556
