l A l CHiNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
QUAN TRI VON LlTU DONG, CHU KY KINH TE VA KHA NANG SINH LOl CUA CONG TY
CO PHAN NIEM YET TAI VIET NAM
• PHAN THj QUOC HUONG
TOM TAT:
Bai vid't nghien ciJu tac dgng cua quan tri von lim dOng, ciiu ky Idnli te len kha nang sinh Id cua cac cong ty cd phan niem yet (CTCP NY) tai Viet Nam trong giai doan 2008 - 2015. Ket qud kiem dinh cho th^y, c6 t6n tai tac dong cua quan tri v6'n lUu dong va chu ky kinh te len kha nang sinh ldi cda cac CTCP NY tai Viet Nam. Ngoai ra, ty so' thanh toan hien hanh, ty !e nd v^ quy m6 c6ng ty dtfdc kiem dinh cd tac d6ng nghich chilu len ROA tai miJc y nghia 1%.
Tuf khda: Quan tri vo'n lifu d6ng, chu ky kinh te, kha nang sinh 101, cong ty cd phan niem ye't
I. Dat va'n de
Quiin tn vdn ltfu dpng (QTVLD) hieu qua la m^t nhidm vu quan trgng cua quan tri tai chinh trong tat ca cac loai hinh cong ty. Thijfa nhan tam quan trong ciia van de nay, tren the gidi da cd nhi^u cdng trinh ldn vl anh hudng cua QTVLD, trong do cac nghien ci?u cua Jose vii cong sU (1996), Deloof (2003), Falope va Ajilore (2009), Mathias (2012), Ng va cong sit (2017)... da cho tha'y (JTVLD ddng mgt vai tro quan trpng trong quye't
%ll gia tang mdc sinh ldi cong ty.
Suy thoai kinh te toan ca u 2008 - 2009 da mang Iii each nhin mdi hdn ve chinh sach QTVLD tai cac c6ng ty. Cac cong ty nhan tha'y rang mgt sit
*ay ddi bat thudng cOa nen kinh te md cd tac ddng 3en cac hoat ddng cua hp, bcfi le nd ddng vai trp quan trong vl nhu cau san pham cung nhU quye't
^jnli tai chinh. Hi6n chi c6 mdt sd cac nghien cdu nilam kidm tra tac dgng cija chu ky kinh doanh ddi v«i viec QTVLD. Cac nghien cu'u nay da gdi y cd
™ tai mdi lien ket giila QTVLD vdi kha nang sinh lei ciia cong ty trong cac giai doan khac nhau cua
^^ kj' kinh te. Cac cong ty cd the tdi da hda gia tri '^«g each tdi im QTVLD, tuy nhien mdc do tdi uu eo tile thay ddi vi phu thupc vao dieu kien kinh
doanh. Vdi ly do tren, nghien cdu nay dUdc thtfc hien nham kiem dinh cac muc deu nghidn cdu sau:
(I) Kiem dinh cd tdn tai hay khong tac dpng cda QTVLD len kha nang sinh Igi cda cac CTCP NY tai Viet Nam trong giai doan 2008 - 2015; (2) Kiem dinh cd tdn tai hay khdng anh hudng cda cac giai doan chu ky kinh te (khung hoang va sau khdng hoang) Idn kha nang sinh ldi cua cac CTCP NY tai Vidt Nam.
2. iVfd hinh nghidn cdu
Vide xay ddng md hinh nghidn cdu dupc thilc hien dua trdn ke't qua tdng quan cac nghidn cdu vd chd de tudng Id trong va ngoai nddc. Trong do.
Chung toi sd dung ty suat sinh ldi trdn tdng tin san (ROA) dai didn cho kha nang sinh ldi cda cdng ty.
Sau day lit 4 mo hinh nghien cdu cho tdng bidn do ludng QTVLD va bang the hidn each xac dinh ciic bid'n trong mo Mnh (Bang 1) vii mpt sd nghien cdu didn hinh cd lidn quan
1VI6 hinh 1 (IMHl):
ROA=(i„ + P,*CCC-tfo-CR + P,»DEBT + p/SIZE + P5*0R0W + Ps*Dummy + u M6 hinh 1 (MH2):
R0A = P„ + P,*PDP+fc*CR+P3'DEBT + p^'SlZE + P5*GR0W 4- Ps'Dummy + u
So'12-Thang 7/2019 303
TAP CHi CONE THIftfNG
Md hinh 3 (MH3):
ROA = po + pi*ICP + p2*CR + p3o*DEBT + p4*SIZE + pg*GROW + p6*Dummy + u M6 hinh 4 (MH4):
ROA = po + pj*RCP + p / C R + p3*DEBT + p4*SIZE + pg^GROW + p6*Dummy + u
can d6'i ciaa 456 cong ty trong giai doan 2008 4 2015. Do do, dau tien hoi quy theo 3 phiTdng pha;
do'i vdi di? lieu bdng can do'i la: phifcfng phap binl phiTdng nho nhat (pooled OLS), phu'dng phap iTdt lUdng theo mo hinh tac dpng co dinh (FEM) va phu'dng phap u'dc ltfdng theo mo hinh tac don^
Bang 1. Djnh nghla cac bien trong mo hinh nghien cCfu
Yeu to len bien 1 Cach tinh NguSn taili^u 1. Bien phu thu$c (ROA)
T^ suat smh Igi tren long
tai san ROA Loi nhuan sau thue/Tong tai san binh quan [ 1 - 2 , 4 - 5 , 8 - 1 0 ] II. Bien nghidn citu tac ddng chinh
1. Nhom bien vSquan tq von luu (S$ng Chu ky lu&n chuyen
tiSn mat Thdi han thanh loan khoSn phai tra Thdi han luan chuyen hang ton kho Thdi han thu tien binh quan
ccc
PDP
ICP
RCP
ICP + RCP-PDP
(Phai tra ngudi ban binh quan/Gia von hang ban)*365 ngay
(Hang ton kho binh quan/Gia von hang ban)*365 ngay
{Khoan phai thu binh quan/ Doanh thu thu§n)*365 ngay
[ 1 - 6 , 8 - 1 0 ]
[ 1 - 4 , 6 , 8 - 9 ]
[ 1 - 4 , 6 , 8 - 9 ]
[ 1 - 4 , 6 , 8 - 9 ] 2. Nhan bien ve cac giai doat) trong chu icy kinh tH
BiSn gia Dummy
Co gia tn la 1 a 2 nam (2008,2009); co gia tri la 0 6 cac nam nen kinh t^phuc hoi (giai doan 2010 -2015)
III. Cac bien kiem scat Ty so thanh toan hien hanh Ty le no
Quy mo cong ty Toe do tang tru6ng c6ng ty
CR DEBT
SIZE GROW
Tai san ngan han/No nglin han long no/Tdng tai san
Logarit ty nhien ciia doanh thu thuan (Tai san nam t - Tai san nam t-1)/Taisan namt-1
[2, 6, 8 • 9]
[ 1 , 3 - 4 , 6 , 8 - 9 ] [ 1 - 4 , 6 , 8 - 9 ]
[ 3 - 4 , 9 ]
3. DiJ li$u va phiitfng phap nghidn cu'u 3.1. DS lieu ngliien cdu
M§u nghidn cdu bao gdm 456 CTCP phi tai chinh tren thi trddng chdng idioan Viet Nam: Sd giao dich chdng khoan Ha Noi (HNX) va Sd giao djch chdng Ichoan TP. Hd Chi Minh (HOSE) trong khoang thdi gian 2008 - 2015. Di? lieu thdng kd duoc thu thap tiif bao cao tai chinh ciia cac cdng ty.
3.2. PhitHngphdp nghien cttu
DO" lieu sil' dung cho nghien cii'u la di? heu bang
ngiu nhien (REM). Tie'p theo, de lUa chon phitOng phap Udc lUcing phu hap viji dil lieu nghien ctfu.
cac kiem dinh se dUdc thUc hien nhiT: kiem dinh F test de lUa chon giffa pooled OLS va FEM, kidm dinh LM (Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier) giifa pooled OLS va REM, va kiem dinh Hausman giiJa FEM vk REM.
Sau khi kiem dinh, phuong phap REM duOc xac dinh phii hop vdi ca 4 rao hinh nghien ciiu. Tuy nhien, ke't qua kidm dinh tU tudng quan va kiem
304 So 12-Tliang 7/2019
TAIGHim-IKAIIHAIUI-BAOHlfM jjnhphtfcing sai sai sS' thay doi doi vdi cac mo hinh
ijjclifting theo phifdng phap nay deu du"a ra ket qui vi phara, do vay, can dieu chinh sai so' chuan Iheo phtfdng phap hoi quy REM nham dat diTcfc ilflcltfdngliiSu qua, ben viJng, khSng chSch va ket ,,ui kiem dinh ddng tin c5y.
4. K^t qua nghien ctfu
Sau day la bang phan anh kS't qua hoi quy theo
!D6liinliREMcho4m6 hinh sau khi hieu chinh sai sochuan. (Bang 2).
Bang 2. Ket qua hoi quy hieu chmh doi v6i mCfc sinh ldi cac c6ng ty (ROA)
chuyen hang ton kho da Snh hifang xa'u dS'n iioat dpng cua cac cong ty. tif do lam gidm miJc sinh idi. That vay, CCC cao cho tha'y cac cong ty da phai bo themva'n trong khi vSn phai cha kiiach hang tra nd tien hang cho minh, do do giam miJc sinh ldi von. Ben canh do, viec cac cong ty duy tri hang ton kho qua tau se lam anh hifdng khong tot tdi qua trinh kinh doanh bdi ie se phai ton chi phi dif trir, chi phi thanh ly hay cai tie'n hang bi loi thdi va thanh ly hang hif hong.. Ket qua kiem dinh nay cung tu'dng dong vdi ket qua cac nghien ciJu d nifdc ngoai [Garcia-Temel va Martinez - Solano (2007), 4. 6]
va tai Viet Nam [1 - 2, 8]. Mai khac, theo ket qua kiem dinh tai miJcy nghia 10%, khong co bang chifng cho tha'y ton tai tac dong ciia thdi han thanh toan khoan phai tra va thdi han thu tien binh quan len ty sua't sinh idi cua cac CTCP NY tai Viet Nam trong giai doan 2008-2015.
Trong ca 4 mo hinh, viec bien gia Dummy difdc kiem dinh cd y nghTa tac dgng len ROA tai mu'c y nghia rat nho (<l%) the hien cac giai doan trong chu ky kinh te' cd tac dong len mu'c sinh ldi cua cac CTCP NY tai Viet Nam.
Dac biel, vdi gia tri tfdc lifdng cac he so'peta cua bien Dummy CO gia tri difdng va theo quy ifdc ve gia tri cua bien Dummy thi mdc sinh ldi ciia cac CTCP lai Viet Nam lai cd xu htfdng lang len trong giai doan khung hoang.
Day ia mgi k^'t luan tifdng doi phi ly nhu'ng ne'u difa tren dO' lieu thong ke gia tri cua ROA d 2 nam 2008 va 2009 lai ldn nhat trong ca giai doan 2008 - 2015.
Mat khac, difa tren dff lieu thong ke' cua Ngan hang The gidi (WB), tif nam 2000 de'n nam 2007 kinh te Viel Nam da trai
^ g 4 h i e n do IUdng QTVLD, hidn CCC v . quamdt g > ^ ^ . S ^ ; ; ^ " ^ - ^ m ^ a ^ a m 10
2007. Viet Nam mdi trd Ihanh thanh
Bien
CCC
PDP
ICP
RCP
CR
DEBT
SIZE
GROW
Dummy
HSng so 1
St! quan sat
* l d - » a l u e P-value 'ti&iPvaitte
MH1 -2,15E-07*
(0,092)
Jl,OOE-06"*
(0,000) -0,176"*
(0,000) 0,016*"
(0,002) 6,52E-05
(0,161) 0,028*"
(0,000) -0,036 (0,528) 3609 3205,24
0,000 10% ."Neu f
MH2
-4,84E-08 (0,738)
4,01E-06*"
(0,000) -0,176*"
(0,000) 0,016***
(0,002) 6,55E-05
(0,161) 0,028***
(0,000) -0,036 (0,635) 3609 3214,31
0,000 value <5%; ***
MH3
-4,74E-07*"
(0,004)
Jl,01E-06***
(0,000) -0,176*"
(0,000) 0,016"*
(0,002) 6,52E-06
(0,161) 0,028"*
(0,000) -0,037 (0,517) 3609 3220,72 J
0,000 Neu Rvalue <1
MH4
-1,28E-07 (0,379) -4,02E-06**
•(0,000) -0,178*"
(0,000) 0,016'"
(0,002) 6,59E-05 (0,161) 0,029"*
(0,000) -0,040 (0,490) 3610 3 1 2 t 9 ^ 0,000
%
Ngucm: Tinb loan cda Idc gia
KPdKiJc kid'm dinh cd tic ddng am len bid'n phu on <'\'J"-"'^^ "";'ri'np cao nha't. Thdm vao dd, NcROA tai miic y nghTa'lln litot la 10% va dat toe dp tang ttitdng cao nn _^^ ^^^^
I'.Theodd, keo dai CCC vii tiing thai han luan dau nam
Thang 7/2019 305 So 12
TAP CHi CONG THtrifNG
vien chinh thifc cua td chdc ThUdng mai the gidi nen nen kinh te' Viet Nam vin chUa thiTc sU "md cu'a hoan toan", tii' do anh hu'dng cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau dd'i vdi Viet Nam con han che. NhiTvay, nhd anh hu'dng da phat trien trong cac nam trudc va tac dong han che' ciia khung hoang nen trong 2 nam 2008 va 2009, cac CTCP d Viet Nam van dat mdc sinh iPi cao.
Ddi vdi cac bie'n kiem soat, tai mdc y nghTa ra't nho 1%. bie'n CR - DEBT - SIZE dUOc kiem dinh cd tac dong len ROA cua cac CTCP NY tai Viel Nam trong giai doan 2008 - 2015. Trong dd, CR va DEBT cd tac dpng nghich chieu nhdng SIZE lai cd lac dpng thuan chieu Ien ROA. Vdi ket qua kiem dinh nay, trong giai doan 2008 - 2015, viec gia tang CR va DEBT da lam giam ROA cua cac CTCP Viet Nam. Dua tren ke't qua ihdng ke md ta, mdc trung binh cua CR ciia cac cdngly trong mau nghien cdu qua cao (13,91), la mpt bieu hien khong to't do phai duy iri tai san ngan han qua nhieu, tii: dd anh hu'dng de'n kha nang sinh ldi cua cdng ly. Ben canh dd, viec cac cong ty sd dung don bay tai chinh qua mdc (mdc trung binh DEBT ciia cac cdng ty trong mau nghien cdu trong giai doan 2008 -2015 de'n 0.51) da dem lai tac dpng tieu cdc ien ROA cua cac CTCP tai Viet Nam. Ngu'dc lai, tac dpng lich cUc len ROA dUpc lim tha'y d viec gia tang doanh Ihu cua cong ty. Cuo'i cing, viec bie'n GROW khong cd y nghia tho'ng ke da chi ra rSng, khdng dii cd sd cho tha'y vide gia tang tai san se anh hddng
den ROA cua cac CTCP NY tai Vidt Nam trong giai doan 2008-2015.
5. Ke't lugn
Thong qua chi tidu do Iddng la ROA, trong giai doan 2008 - 2015, tdn tai tac ddng ciia QTVLD I6n kha nang sinh Ioi ciia cac CTCP NY tai Viet Nam.
Trong do, chu ky luan chuyen tien mat va thdi han luSn chuyen hang tdn kho, la 2 bie'n trong 4 bie'n do Iddng QTVLD, difdc kiem dinh co tac dpng nghich chieu Ien ROA ciia cac cong ty. Vdi ke't qua kiem dinh nay, de tang mdc sinh Idi cac CTCP NY tai Viel Nam can nang cao hieu qua QTVLD thong qua thuc hien chinh sach that chat. Cu the, giam thdi han luan chuyen hang ton kho va giam CCC.
Ngoai ra, trong nghien cdu nay chiing loi cung tim tha'y cac giai doan cua chu ky kinh te cd tac dpng len kha nang sinh Idi cua cac CTCP NY tai ( Viet Nam. Do dd, cac cdng ly can co sU nhin nhan i phu hdp hdn ve va'n de nay. Do dd, cac cdng ly can . thu ihap thong tin ve xu hddng bien ddng cua nen kinh te' de iCf dd dda ra cac chinh sach QTVLD, quan tri ngudn li/c cdng ty phii hdp, gop phan gia tang mdc sinh ldi cua cong ty.
Cuo'i cung, CR va DEBT co tac dong nghich chieu nhdng SIZE lai cd lac dpng thuan chieu len mdc sinh ldi cua cac CTCP NY lai Viel Nam giai doan 2008 - 2015. Do dd, viec giam CR, DEBT ve mdc phiJ hdp hdn, cung nhd gia lang doanh thu la nhifng cdng viec can thiet can phai Iam trong thdi gian tdi de gdp phan lang mdc sinh Idi cua CTCP !|
NY tai V i e t N a m "
TAI Ligu THAM KHAO:
Tai lifu tieng Viet:
1. Bui Ngoc Todn (2016). Tdc dong ciia chinh sdch vd'n lUu dong den khd ndng sinh lai tren tSng tdi san cua cdc doanh nghiep ngdnh Bd't dpng sdn Viel Nam. Tap chi Khoa hpc - Trudng Dai hoc Can Tha, 44d: 18 - 27.
2. To Thi Thanh Triic va NguySn Dinh Thien (2015). Anh hudng cua chinh sdch vdn luu dpng d^'n hieu qud hoal ddng cua cdc cong ty niem yet tren thi trudng chdng khodn Viel Nam Tap chi khoa hoc - Trudng Dai hoc Md TP. HCM.
3(42), 101 -110.
Tai iifu tieng ni^c ngoai:
3. Deloof, M.. (2003). Does working capital managemenl affect profitability of Belgian firms?. J Business Finance Ace, 30(4), 573 - 587
4. Falope, O l& Ajilore. 0. T. (2009). Working Capital Managemenl and Corporate Profitability. Evidencefrom Panel Data Analysis of Selected Quoted Companies in Nigeria. Research Joumal of Business Management. 3(3). pp.
73-84
306 So 12-Thang 7/2019
TAI CHiNH-NBANHANIi-BAO IIIEM
' Inse et al. (1996). Corporate Return and Cash Conversion Cycle. Joumal crf Economics and Finance. 20(1).
»-46.
, cnflvi'st J.. Graiiam. M.. & Nikkinen. J. (2014) The Impact of Working Capital Management on Firm Profitability
• n'fferent Business Cycles: Evidencefrom Finland. Research In Intemational Business and Finance. 32.36 - 49.
7 Oseifuak E.. {2018). Global financial crisis, woricing capital management and profitability' of nonfinancial firms r , lion the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, South Africa. Academy of Entrepreneurship Joumal Volume. 24(3).
i-12.
S VoThi Quy i [^ Thi IViinh Nguyen (2017). Effects of working capital managemem on firm performance and firm ,fl/we - a study of the fisheries Industry in Vietnam. Joumal of Science - Ho Chi Mmh City Open University. 7(3).
42-52.
9 !4alhicts. B. B.. (2012). Impact of Working Capital Management on the Profiuiblllty of Pubhc Listed Finns in the mherlaii'iis during the Financial Crisis. University ofTwente.
JO Wang, yJ.. (2002). Liquidity management, operating performance and corporate value: evidencefrom Japan mdTaiwan. I Multinational Financial Manage. 12(2). 159 -169.
Ngay Dhanbai: 14/6/2019
Ngay phan biSn danh gia va sfla chffa: 24/6/2019 Ngay chap nhan dang bai: 4/7/2019
Thongtintdc gia:
TS.PHANTHIQU6CHIJC(NG
Khoa Tai chinh - Ngta hang va QuSn tri Kinh doanh, Tr^ng D , . hoc Quy Nhrfn
THE IMPACT OF WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC CYCLES ON THE PROFITABn^rTY OF LISTED JOINT STOCK COMPANIES IN VIETNAM
• PhD PHAN THI QUOC HUONG Faculty of Finance - Banking and Administration,
Quy Ntion University
ABSTRACT: . , _..,„ement and economic cycles on This smdy examines .he impact of worlongcapt^^m^anjgem^^^^^^^^^^^^j^^^^^^^^
the profitability of listed joint stock companies m ^^^^ ^ .^^^^^ ^^ ^^ profitability reveal that the working capital management and eco ^^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^ addition, the resuh of listed joint stock companies in Vietnam during ^^^e negative effects on showsthatthecurrentpaymentratio,debtratioandsizeofcomp
Hie ROA at die 1 % significance level. „„„;r cvcle profitability, listed joint stock Keywords: Working capital management, economic cycl P
company.
So'12-Thang 7/2019 307
