TAP CHi CONG THlTtfNG
PHAN TICH XU HlJCfNG BIEN DONG CUA KHACH DU LICH QUOC TE DEN VIET NAM
VA MOT SO DE XUAT
• NGUYEN TH! TUYET NHUNG
TOM TAT:
Tren cd sd so lieu khach du lich quo'c t^' de'n Viet Nam giai doan 2015 - 2019 thu thSp ttJf Tong ciic Du lich, bai viet taip trung phdn tich dac diem bien d6ng, qui luat bie'n d6ng va tinh thdi vu cua khach du lich quoc te den Vi6t Nam giai doan 2015 - 2019, lii 66 du'a ra m6t s6 d l xuS't giiip cac cd sd kinh doanh du lich co kd' hoach chu^n bi td't nha't trong vi6c tid'p don khach du lich quoc t6' trong tifdng lai.
Tuf khoa: Xu hifdng bie'n dong, kh^ch du lich quo'c td', bid^n ddng thdi vu.
1. Dat van d€
Do'i vdi ba't ky qud'c gia nao, du lich ludn difdc coi la mot trong nganh kinh te Idn, cd ddng gdp quan trong vao tong san pham quo'c noi cua cac nu'dc. Viet Nam cung khdng phai la ngoai le.
Chinh phu Viet Nam da xac dinh du lich la nganh kinh td' miii nhgn trong chie'n lu'dc phat trien kinh te'cua dd't nifdc. Trong nhifng nam qua, du lich cua Viet Nam da phat trien kha nhanh va dat difdc nhilu thanh qua dang khich Id, mot trong so'dd la thu hut difdc ngay cang nhieu khach du lich qud'c te' dd'n vdi Viet Nam. To chiJc Du lich the' gidi (UNWTO) da danh gia Viet Nam la mot trong so' 10 qud'c gia dat td'c dp tang tnfdng khach du lich hang dau the' gidi cac nam gan day.
Vdi so' lifpng khach qud'c td' ngay cang gia tang, de cd the chuan bi day du cd sd vSt chS't cung nhif nguon Igfc can thie't phuc vu khach thi can diXdoan du'dc lifpng khach du lich qud'c te'de'n Viet Nam lam cd sd cho vide xay dtfng cac ke' hoach tid'p ddn. Vi vay, viec nghien cifu nham danh gia xu thd'bie'n ddng cua khach du Ijch qud'c te'dd'n Viet Nam, de tif dd cd the difa ra cac dif doan la thifc sU can thie't.
Da kha nhieu nha nghien cu'u sit dung cac
phu'dng phap nghidn cu'u xu the bien ddng de nghien cifu trong nhieu ITnh vifc khac nhau nhif trong ITnh vuc xay difng, thifdng mai, giao thdng...
Doi vdi du hch, mdt sd' nha nghidn cifu cung da thifc hien cac phifdng phap bieu hidn bid'n ddng de nghien cu'u xu the hay tinh thdi vu cua khach du lich, nhif:
Nguydn Le Anh da van dung phifdng phap ham xu the' tim ra qui luat bie'n ddng cua khach du lich qud'c te'de'n Viet Nam theo thang rijf nam 2000den 2010 la yi = 157,032 +1,8286% trong dd t la bie'n thdi gian tinh theo thang.
Nghien cu'u ve khu du lich sinh thai Mang Den cua tinh Kontum, Ld Dan da su* dung phu'dng phap phan tich thdi vu de danh gia xu thd' bie'n dpng lifpng du khach de'n day theo qui. Kd't qua nghien cu'u cho tha'y lifpng du khach de'n Mang Den nhieu vao qui I va qui IIL ngifdc lai vao qui II va qui VI, lu'dng du khach giam di ro ret. Tren cd sd cdc nghidn cifu ve dac diem xu the bid'n dpng dd. cdc nha quan ly du Ijch cd the chu ddng hdn trong cdng tac quan ly nhif difa ra ke'hoach dap iJng nhu cau cua du khach trong miia cao diem, chon thdi gian thich hpp de nang cap cd sd \ai chat kT thuat. boi difdng nhan life...
100 So 14-Thang 6/2020
KIRITE
Do vay, tac gia se sd dung mdt so phrfdng phap bieu hien bie'n ddng cila hien tifdng qua thdi gian de phan tich xu hifdng bien dpng ciia khach du lich quoc te den Viet Nam trong giai doan 2015-2019 mpt each toan dien ca ve dac diem, xu the \ a bien dpng thdi vu va tiif do du'a ra mpt so'de xuat tif kd't qua nghien cifu.
2. Phti'tfiig phap nghien ci3^
Bai \ iet sijf dung mot so' phi/dng phap phan tich day sd thdi gian bao gdm li/png tang (giam) tuyet ddi, tdc dp tang (giam) de danh gia dac diem bien dpng cua khach du lich qudc te den V'ldt Nam qua ri!fng nam. cung nhif danh gia chung cho ca giai doan 2015 - 2019. Tiep de'n. tac gia siJ dung phifdng phap phan tich hoi qui de tim ra ham xu the phan anh qui luat bien ddng cua khach du lich qudc te trong giai doan nay va tinh toan chi sd thdi
\u de phan lich \ a danh gia dac diem bien ddng thdi vu cua khach du lich qudc te ddn
\'idt nam theo thang.
Nguon so'lieu: Bai viet si? dung sdlieu khach du lich qudc td'den Viet Nam theo thang trong 5 nam tCf nam 2015 - 2019 thu thap tiJC Tong cue Du lich, dong thdi tham khao < kie'n cac chuyen gia du lich de dtfa ra nhifng danh gia, nhan dinh phij hdp.
3. Phan tich xu thd bie'n dpng cua khach du lich quo'c te'den \'iet Nam trong giai doan 2015 -2019
3.1. Phdn tich dac diem vd qui luat bien dong Tn/dc bet de cd the thay difdc dac diem bien dpng cua khach du Hch qudc te'de'n Viet Nam qua cac nam, cd the suf dung chi tieu li/dng tang (giamj tuyet ddi Hen hoan va tdc dp tang (giam) lien hoan.
Bang 1 cho tha^y, trong giai doan 2015 - 2019.
li/dng khach du lich qudc te' ddn Viet Nam tang qua cac nam, trong dd miJc tang cao nhat la nam 2017. Day di/dc coi la nam phat trien an ti/dng cua Viet Nam va du'dc xem la ky tich cua nganh Du lich khi lan dau tidn miJc tang \i khach du lich qudc te dat tdi 2,91 trieu lifdt khach so vdi nam tnfdc. Cac nam khac cung cd lifdng tang kha \di lifdng tang tuyet ddi blnh quan trong giai doan nay la 2,026 trieu Iifdt khach/nam va tdc dp tang tnfdng binh quan dat 17,96^.
Sy tang tnfdng ve sd lifpt khach du lich qudc td' de'n Viet Nam trong nhifng nam gan day mpt phan do cong tac xuc tien du lich cd nhidu thay ddi tich
Bang 1. Bien dpng cua khach du Ijch quoc te den Viet Nam giai doan 2014 - 2019
Nam
I
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Khach dulidl QTcJftiVN
(tii$uliiat) (1) 7.89 7,91 10,02 12,93 15,48 18,02
Linng tang tuy$t doi rien hoan
(ti^lugt) (2)
•
0,02 2.11 2.91 2.55 2.54
loc (16 tang (^am)rien
hoan(%) (3)
-
0,25 26,68 29,04 19,72 16.41 Nguon: (I) Tong cue Du lich: l2i vd (3):
Tinh todn cua tdc gid
cifc. Tong cue Du lich da cijng cac doanh nghidp du lich he thd'ng lai cac hpi chd du tich qud'c te.
hu\ ddng difdc nhidu doanh nghiep Idn tham gia, ben canh do tang cifdng xuc tien du iich qua mang xa hpi. Mpt nguyen nhan khac khien sd lifdt khach du lich qud'c te' tang la nhd chinh sach mien visa cua Viet Nam. dieu nay khien khach du lich tif chau Au tdi Viet Nam tang tnfdng kha nhanh, trung binh tang 20'^'f - 30% so vdi tnfdc do. nha't la cac thi tnfdng Anh, Difc. Phap. Y va Ta> Ban Nha.
De thay rd hdn xu the bid'n ddng qua cac nam, tac gia tid'n hanh nghidn cifu xay dtfng ham xu the' qua cac nam.
Tnfdc het, de li/a chpn dang ham xu the thich hdp. ta bieu didn so' lieu khach du lich qudc te'den Viet Nam qua Do thi I.
Do thi 1 cho thaj ham xu the' tuyen tinh la md hinh thich hdp nha't de bieu hien xu hifdng phat trien ciia khach du lich qud'c te de'n Viet Nam giai doan 2015-2019.
Giai doan 2015 - 2019 dtfdc dat lan lifdt theo thif tif ttf 1 den 5. ta sif dung phan mem SPSS de tim du'dc ham xu the tuyen tinh bieu hien xu hifdng bien ddng cua khach du lich qudc te den \ i e t .Nam giai doan 2015 - 2019 nhif sau:
y, = 5,168 + 2,568*t vdi i la thdi gian tinh b^ng nam.
Ket qua ham xu the cho thay. trong dieu kien cac ve'u td tac ddng khong iha> doi. binh quan mdi nam lifdng khach du lich quoc te den Viet Nam cd xu hifdng tang khoang -.56S trieu lifdt khach.
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TAPCHiCiNGTHIItiNG
06 thj 1: SolUdI khach du Ijch quoc le den Vl$t Nam giai dogn 201S - 2019 (Irieu li/0>
20 18 16 14 12 10
6 4
2014
7.91
10.02 12.93
15.48 ^^ -» 18.02
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ngudn: Tdng cue Du lich
3.2. Bien d^ng thdi vii
Du lich la mdt trong nhifng nganh chiu anh hifdng kha nhieu cua bie'n dpng thdi vu, dieu nay gay ra nhifng khd khan trong hoat ddng kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghiep lien quan tdi du lich. De co the xay difng nhifng kd hoach kinh doanh phii hdp vdi dac diem bie'n ddng thdi vu, can thiet phai nghien cifu va danh gia sif bien ddng nay.
Cd kha nhieu dinh nghia ve bien dpng thdi vu, cac khai niem co the khdng hoan toan gid'ng nhau nhifng d^u thd' hidn mdt diem chung cua bie'n dgng thdi vu, do la sif bien ddng lap di lap lai cua hidn tifdng trong tifng thdi gian nha't dinh cua nam.
Trong du lich, bid'n ddng thdi vu the hidn d vide vao khoang thdi gian nhat dinh hang n^m, lifdng khach du lich tang cao nhifng dd'n thdi gian khac lu'dng khach lai giam di. Va sif tang, giam nay ciJ lap di lap lai qua cac nam.
De nghidn cifu bien dpng thdi vu cua khach du lich qud'c td' dd'n Viet Nam, bai viet tinh toan chi sd thdi vu la chi sd du'dc sif dung phd' bidn de danh gia tinh thdi vu. Tiiy theo dac diem cua tifng hien tu'dng nghien cifu ma chi so' thdi vu se cd cdng thifc tinh khac nhau. Vdi nghien cifu nay, dd'i tifdng nghien cifu la khach du lich qud'c tdden Viet Nam CO xu the' bie^n ddng tang len qua cac nam, vl vay tac gia sif dung cdng thifc tinh chi .sd thdi vu vdi day sd'cd xu thd'.
Ta bid't rang, trong mdt day so' thdi gian. thdng thifdng mdi mifc dp la sif kd't hdp ciia 4 thanh phan cd ban la : Xu thd'{T): Bie'n ddng chu ky (C): Bie'n dpng thdi vu (S) va Bie'n dpng ngau nhidn (I).
Trong4thanhphandd,de phan tich bid'n ddng chu ky ddi hoi sd lieu phai thu thSp trong nhiing khoang thdi gian dai. Vdi day sd'lidu trong nghidn cifu nay la 5 nam, tac gia chi phan tich vdi 3 thanh phan la xu thd' (T), bid'n ddng thdi vu (S) va bien dpng ngau nhien (I). Cac thanh phan nay cd the kd't hdp vdi nhau theo dang md hinh cdng hoSc mo hinh nhan. Trong nghien cifu nay, tfic gia SIS'dung md hinh nhan la md hinh du'dc diing pho bie'n. Ta cd: Y=T*S*I
Trong dd: Y la cac mifc dp cua day sd'thdi gian;
T la bie'n ddng xu the; S la bie'n ddng thdi vu; I la bie'n ddng ngau nhien.
De tha'y rd difpc bien ddng thdi vu ciia hien tifdng nghien cifu, nhiem vu la tim xu the' bien dpng va bien ddng ngSu nhidn de loai trif ra khdi day so'.
Tnfdc he't can tim ra xu the bien dpng cOa khach du hch qud'c td'dd'n Viet Nam qua cac thang trong nam. Vdi so lieu khach du lich qud'c te'den Viet Nam theo thang thu thap tif Tong cue Du lich, ta cd do thi bieu dien xu hu'dng nhif sau: (Do thi 2) Nhin vao Do thi cd the tha'y, khach du lich qudc te de'n Viet Nam bie'n dpng theo hu'dng tang len qua cac thang va cd the dieu chinh ve dang ham tuyd'n tinh.
Ta xay difng ham xu the' tuye'n tinh cho day so nay. Ke't qua chay phan mem SPSS cho tha'y. dang ham tuye'n tinh thich hpp de phan anh xu hifdng bie'n dpng cua khach du lich qudc td'den Viet Nam.
Phu'dng trinh bieu didn nhif sau:
Y, = 0,542-^0,0174*1 (*)
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Do thi 2: Xu hUdng bien dong khach du Ijch quoc te' den ViSt Nam theo thang giai dogn 2015 - 2019
1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
Trong do: t la thdi gian, tinh theo thang.
Sau khi tim du'dc ham su thd', tien hanh loai bd xu the ra khdi day so ban dau bhng each lay cac mifc dp thifc td' thu thap difdc (Y) chia cho xu the' (T):17r = 5*/
Trong dd: Y la mifc dp thifc te've khach du lich QT dd'n VN thu thap difpc; T la Mifc dd tinh dtfpc
Ngudn: Tong cue Du lich tif ham xu the'(*) vdi bie'n I la thif tif thdi gian theo thang (lan lifdt tif 1 den 60).
Ke't qua bao gom hai thanh phan cdn lai la bie'n ddng thdi vu va bid'n dpng ngau nhien du'dc trinh bay trong cot (1), (2), (3), (4) va (5), chi sd thdi vu chifa dieu chinh tnnh bay d cot (6) va chi sd'thdi vu da dieu chinh du'dc the hidn d cdt (7) tai Bang 2.
Bang 2. Chf so thdi vu cua khach du Ijch quoc te den Viet Nam theo thang giai doqn 2015 - 2019 dd logi triT yeu to ngdu nhien
Thang
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Y/T = Sxl Nam 2015
(1) 1,25 1,31 1,05 1,13 0,92 0,82 0,89 0,99 0,9 0,9 1 1,01
Nam 2016 (2) 1,06 1,06 1,04 0,98 0,92 0,83 0,99 1,02 0,9 0,89 1 0,94
NSm2017 (3) 1,03 1,21 1 1,04 0,92 0,9 0,96 1,12 0,88 0,9 1,02 1,09
Nam 2018
m
1,2 1,19 1,1 1,08 0,92 0,93 0,92 1,01 0,91 0,9 0,96 0,99
Nam 2019 (5) 1,08 1,13 0,99 1,01 0,91 0,8 0,88 0,99 1,02 1,05 1,15 1,08
Chi s^Tthdi vu chua dieu chinh
(6) 1,124
1,18 1,036 1,048 0,918 0,856 0,928 1,026 0,922 0,928 1,026 1,022 12,014
Ch! so thdi vu da dieu chinh (ian)
(7) 1,1228 1,1788 1,03,48 1,0468 0,9168 0,8648 0,9268 1,0248 0,9208 0,9268 ' 1,0248 1,0208
Ngudn: Tinh todn cua tdc gid
So 14 - Thang 6/2020 103
TAP CHi CONG TUIfdNG
De bien ddng thdi vu bu trif triet tieu lan nhau xung quanh xu the' khi cac thanh phan kdt hdp theo md hinh nhan, trong tru'dng hdp tinh theo thang tong cac bien ddng thdi vu phai la 12 va ne'u tinh theo quy tong cac bie'n ddng miia vu phai bang 4. Trong trifdng hdp nay, tdng la 12,014, do do can trif di d mdi sd'trdn 1 lu'dng la 0,014/12 = 0,0017.
Tif ke't qua tinh toan chi so' thdi vu d trdn cd the rut ra dac diem ve bie'n ddng thdi vu cua khach du lich qud'c td' de'n Viet Nam trong giai doan 2015 - 2019 nhif sau: Khach du lich qud'c te de'n Viet Nam tap trung nhieu nha't vao thang 1 va thang 2, cac thang nay cao hdn mifc chung lan lifdt la 12,28%
va 17,88%. Cac thang cd so' lu'dt khach tha'p hdn mifc binh quan chung la thang 5, thang 6, thang 7, thang 9 va thang 10; trong do tha'p nha't la thang 6 the hien d chi sd'thdi vu chi la 85,48%.
4. Mpt so' de xufi't rut ra til phan tich Qua ke't qua phan tich trdn, cd thd' tha'y so' lifdt khach du hch qud'c te' de'n Viet Nam tang len qua cac nam va lu'dng khach den tap trung nhieu hdn vao cac thang dau nam tif thang 1 dd'n thang 4 va 2 thang cud'i nam la thang 11 va thang 12. Dieu nay cd th^ do thdi gian nay thdi tiet khdng bi ndng, thich hdp cho cac hoat dpng du lich.
Dd' duy tri xu the tang tru'dng khach du lich qud'c td' dd'n Viet Nam trong nhifng nam tdi, cIn chii trpng vao mpt so' ndi dung sau:
Dd'i vdi c5c doanh nghiep Iff hanh qud'c id': Can chu trpng x3y difng dpi ngu hifdng dan vien du lich qudc td' v& thuye't minh vidn du lich du ve sd lu'dng, dam bao ve chat lifdng va hdp ly ve cd ca'u khach.
Tang cifdng hdn nifa vide nghien cifu thid't ke', xay difng va td chifc thifc hidn cac chifdng trinh du lich dpc dao, da dang
Ddi vdi cac cd sd kinh doanh lifu trii: De thu hiit va nang cao eha't lu'dng phuc vu khach du Uch ngay mdt td't hdn, can tham gia xep hang cd sd lu^i Ini.
Dieu nay tao dieu kien quang ba cho cac cd sd lu^
trii. dong thdi ciing giiip quan ly difdc chat lifdng san pham lu^ trii, an udng. Cac cd sd kinh doanh lini trii can ludn bao dam eha't lu'dng phuc vu, eha't lifdng trang thie't hi on dinh, dam bao ve sinh va an toan thifc pham trong i n ud'ng cho khach.
Dd'i vdi cac chu the' kinh doanh van chuydn kinh doanh khach du lich: So' lifdt khach du lich qud'c td' ddn Viet Nam ngay cang tang dong nghia vdi nhu cau van chuyen ciing tang len. Cac chu the'kinh doanh van chuyen caned ke hoach chu^n bi du nguon nhan life ciing nh\X phifdng tidn phuc vu sif gia tang nay. Can chii y dam bao phifdng tidn chuyen van chuyen khach du lich qud'c td' phai dat tieu chuan v^ an toan ky thuat, bao ve dUdc moi tnfdng, dam bao 6\idc chat lifdng dich vu, tuSn thu diing cac qui dinh cua cd quan quan ly nha nu'dc.
Nhifng ngu'di dieu khie'n va ngu'di phuc vu tren cdc phifdng tien van chuyen khach du Hch qudc te cIn cd chuyen mdn, sifc khde phii hdp, difdc boi difdng ve nghidp vu du lich, ngoai ngif va cd dao difc nghe nghiep dting mifc.
Dd'i vdi cac diem du lich, khu du lich: Can phoi hdp vdi cac ddi tac nham tao ra san pham du lich mang tinh dac thii cua Viet Nam vdi gia hdp ly.
Tang cifdng cung cap cac dich vu vui chdi gi^i hi, td chifc nhieu die'm ban hang, cac dich vu. Id hpi.
vui chdi giai tri ve ddm va vao cac thang chi so miia vu tha'p. Cac diem du lich can cd bien chi dan, thuye't minh ro rang, khu vifc ve sinh sach se, mang lai sif hai Idng cho khach.
Dd'i vdi cac dich vu lidn quan khac: Nhif dich vu hang khdng, dich vu ngan hang, dich vu bifu chinh vidn thdng... can ludn hoan thien nham dap ifng nhu cdu cua khach vdi chat lifdng td't, dam bSo an toan cho khach.
Ben canh do, do dac die'm ve bie'n ddng thdi vu cua khach du lich qudc te' de'n Viet Nam nhif da phan tich d tren, cac ddn vi kinh doanh hoat ddng du lich cung nen lifu y de cd nhifng kd' hoach phi) hdp cho nhifng thang cao diem va tha'p diem.
Chang ban thang 6 la thang thap didm cua khich du lich qud'c te nhifng lai la thdi gian ma du Uch npi dia tang, vay cac ddn vi kinh doanh nen c6 nhifng chifdng trinh thu hiit khach du lich ndi dia vao nhifng dip nay. Hay vdi thang 9, thdng 10 la cac thang tha'p did'm cua khach du lich ndi chung thi cac ddn vi kinh doanh du lich cd the sif dung thdi gian nay de dao tao, boi du3ng, nang cao trinh dp cho nhan vidn nham nang cao chat lifdng djch vu td't hdn •
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KINH TE
TAI L i f u THAM KHAO:
1. Nguyen Le Anh, 2012. Phuong phdp Thdng ke ket qud hoat dong kinh doanh du lich d Viet Nam. Luan an Ti6'n SI Tnfcfng Dai hoc Kinh te quoc diin.
2. Le Dan, 2016. Phuong phdp phdn tich xu the thdi vu trong du lich. Ky yen Hoi tliao quoc gia "Thong ke v^
Tin lipc L?ng dung".
3. Nguyen Van Lini, 2013. Xudt Ichau lai chd thdng qua du lich. Nha xuSTt ban Van hoa thong tin.
4. Tong cue Du lich. Bdo cdo thudng nien du lich cdc ndm 2017. 2018.
5. Tran Thi Kim Thu, D6 Van HuSn, 2019. Gido irinh tin hoc ling dung trong thdng ke. Nha xuS^t biin Dai hoc Kinh t^ quO'c dan.
6. Yen Anh, 2017. Vi saodu khach quo'c te tang ky luc, truy cap tai https://nld.com.vn/kinh-te/vi-sao-du-khach- quoc-te-tang-ky-luc-20l71227205S54061.htm
Ngay nhjn bai: 3/5/2020
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va siila cbifa: 13/5/2020 Ngay cba'p nhSn dang bai: 23/5/2020
Thong tin tdc gid:
TS. NGUYIN THI TUYET NHUNG Trrfdng Dai hoc Ngoai thrftfng
ANALYZING THE FLUCTUATING TRENDS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS VISITING VIETNAM
AND SOME SUGGESTION
• Ph.D NGUYEN THI TUYET NHUNG Foregin Trade University
ABSTRACT:
Based on the data of international tourists coming to Vietnam in the period of 2015 - 2019 which wen; collected from the Viemam National Administration of Tourism, this smdy analyzes the characteristics of changes, trends and seasonal fluctuations of international tourists. Some suggestions were given to help tourism businesses better prepare their bussiness plans targeted at international tourists in the future.
Keywords: Fluctuating trend, international tourists, seasonal fluctuation.
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