LP CHON VAT TV KIEN TRUC TANG TREN DVONG UUG DUNG PHiraNG PHAP DANH GIA THEO HE THONG CHi TIEU CAP BAC DE

KHOA HOC - CONG NGHE

UUG DUNG PHiraNG PHAP DANH GIA THEO HE THONG CHi TIEU CAP BAC DE L P CHON VAT TV KIEN TRUC

TANG TREN DVONG SAT

PHAM QUOC CLTONG

Trudng phong Khoa hoc Cdng nghe-Cuc Duong s i t Viet Nam

Tom tat: Trong khubn khb cb han, bai bao de cap so lagc den mbt sb phaong phap danh gia hieu qua tai chinh-xa hgi cua dy an dau ty, td db de xuat ap dyng Phuong phap danh gia theo he thbng chi tieu cap bac (AHP) d l danh gia va xep hang eae phuong an laa chpn chung loai ta vet dadng s i t , muc tieu n h i m da dang hda cac bien phap ra quyet dinh tbi au phuc vu san xuat va gdp phan phat trien kinh te-xa hbi.

Brief: The article mentioned generally some methods of evaluat- ing financial - social performance of investment projects. Thence, it proposed applying the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to evalu- ate and rank the alternatives of selecting railway sleeper types. Its target is aimed at diversifing measures of making optimal decisions for manufacturing and contributing to social-economic development.

1.Gi(5lTHI§U V A N O i Hang nSm kinh phi dagc dau ta de mua s i m vat tu kien true tang tren dadng s i t phyc vy cbng tac duy tu, bao dudng va xay dyng mdi cac tuyen dadng s i t la rat Idn va can dugc quan ly tbt d l vda dam bao hieu qua ve tai ehinh, vda dap dng yeu c i u ve kinh te-xa hpi, di dbi vgi chat lagng ky thuat dugc giu vung va giam thilu tac dbng mbi trugng.

Trong thyc te, viec mua s i m ray, ghi, ta vet... cdn nhieu bat cap, chu yeu dya vao kinh nghiem chu quan khi quyet dinh, chi quan tam nhilu d i n Igi ich kinh te ma chua xem x6t d^n cac y i u tb anh hadng d i n mbi tradng, xa hbi, cac dieu

kien, dich vy sau ban hang, va dieu quan trpng la k h i nang thich hgp vdi dieu kien khai thae va tac dpng d i n mbi trudng d Viet Nam.

Vi vay can thilt phai cap nhat them nhung phuong phap, cbng cu phu hgp d l danh gia, lya chpn, dap dng dagc cac yeu cau dat ra ve kinh te, xa hbi.

2. LLTA CHON PHU-QNG PHAP OANH GIA

Hien nay, khi danh gia hieu qua dau ta eua mbt dy an de quyet djnh d i u ty, hau h i t deu su dung phuong phap danh gia Igi ich-chi phi dya vao 4 ehi tieu co ban: Chi tieu gia trj hien tai rdng kinh t l

ENPV; Chi tibu ty le Igi ich - chi phi kinh t l EBCR; Chi tieu ty suit

hoan vbn nbi bb kinh t l EIRR; Chi tieu thdi gian hoan vbn T^y

Ben canh nhung au d i l m de thay eua phaong phap danh gia Igi

ich-chi phi, thi phaong phap nay eung cho thay nhdng han che khi nhang tieu ehi danh gia khbng dbng nhat, hoac khbng t h i lugng hda thanh tien, ho§c viec lagng hda thanh tien khbng chuan xae, nhat la vdi dieu kien kinh te-xa hbi nha d nade ta. Obng thdi, phaong phap danh gia Igi ich-tai chinh khbng cho phep daa ra k i t qua danh gia tbng quan khbng ehi vbi cae chi tieu tai chinh, ma ca cac chi tieu lien quan d i n yeu tb xa hpi, mbi tradng, d§c biet la dbi vdi chuyen nganh mang tinh xa hpi eao nha nganh giao thbng van tai.

O l giai quyet dagc cac bat cap neu tren khi tien hanh danh gia, phan loai cac phaong an dau ta, ngadi ta sd dyng Phuong phap danh gia theo he thbng chi tieu cap bac (Analytical Hierarchy Process- AHP) n h i m dat dugc quylt djnh tbi uu, dap dng cac y§u c i u tbng hgp ve kinh te-xa hbi cua cac dy an cai tao, nang cap cac tuyIn giao thdng van tai dudng sit.

Quy trinh danh gia theo phaong

TAP CHi CAU OLfONG VIET NAM

KHOA H O C - C O N G NGHE

phap AHP dagc thyc hien thong qua eae budc co ban nhu sau:

Xiy dung he thd'ng chi tieu cip bic dedanh gii - * So sinh cap ddi chi tieu a tung cap do theo muc do quan trong bing phdng vin chuyen gia —* Xic dinh trgng so' the hien muc do quan trgng cua cic chi tieu (phuang an) d tdng cap —*

Kiem tra tinh nhi't quin trong cac danh gia cua chuyen gia

—* Tong hgp he thd'ng chi tieu vi xip hang, lua chgn phuong an.

Phuang phap danh gia theo he thbng chi tieu cap bac AHP cho phep xay dyng mbt he thbng chi tieu danh gia nhieu cap linh hoat, tao d i l u kien thuan Igi hon cho viee danh gia. Obng thdi, ngudi ra quyet djnh ed the de dang trong viee x i p hang so sanh mac dp quan trpng cua cae chi tieu d mbi cap thdng qua he thbng thang diem eua phuang phap AHP. Ben canh dd, vdi viee xae djnh ty le khbng nhat quan (Inconsistency Ratio), tinh dbng nhat trong danh gia cua cac chuyen gia dugc dam bao cho d i n khi ty le khdng dbng nhat dugc xae dinh khdng vagt qua 10%.

Vdi phaong phap danh gia nay cd the danh gia dy an dau tu, mua s i m thilt bj mbt each tbng hgp, toan dien hon, de cap tdi hau h i t cac tieu chi dugc sd dung de danh gia cua mbt dy an dau ta trong ITnh vac giao thdng van tai, la tien de d l cd the triln khai thyc hien dy an mbt each thuan Igi, hieu qua va dat duoc muc tieu de ra.

3. OANH GIA CAC YEU TO TAC DONG TRONG VIEC CHON LLTA CHUNG LOAI TA VET BANG PHU'ONG PHAP AHP

3.1 Xay ddng he thing ehi tieu cap bac^ de danh gia

Tren ca sd eae nguyen tac xay dyng he thbng ehi tieu nhy da neu tren, mye tieu va tieu ehi chpn lya de danh gia, lya chpn cu the nhy sau:

Muc tieu: xay dyng chaang trinh phan tich, danh gia de lya chpn mpt trpng cae ehung loai ta vet; Ti vet sit; Ti vet gd; Ti vet be tdng.

Tieu chi danh gia:

• Tieu chuin: Day la tieu chi ve tieu chuan ky thuat co ban lam can ed danh gia, chpn lya ta vet tren co sd cac quy djnh va tieu chuan ky thuat hien hanh.

• Do bin: Op ben: la d§c tinh CO ban cua vet. Ob ben dagc hieu nha la kha nang chju dyng khbng bj nut, gay, pha huy dagi tac dbng eua ngoai lyc len vat t h i trong qua trinh l i p dat va khai thae.

Gii thinh: Theo tinh toan eua mbt sb don vj san xuat ta vet cua Tbng cbng ty dadng sat Viet Nam, gia thanh ta vet hien tai cb t h i tam tinh nha sau: Ta vet sat; 600.000 d/thanh; Ta vet go; 800.000 d/thanh; Ta vet be tbng: 400.000 d/thanh {Gii nay ehi ed y nghTa minh hoa, tham khao-TG).

• Mdi trudng: Viec sd dyng cac ehung loai ta vet khac nhau cd tac dbng khac nhau den mdi tradng thbng qua cac yeu tb nha:

khai thae tai nguyen thien nhien lam vat lieu che tao ta vet, tao nen cac chat thai trong qua trinh c h i tao, gay ra cac tac dbng ve do bn, dp rung khac nhau trong qua trinh van hanh, khai thae...

• Lap dit: Do dac d i l m cau tao eua ta vet la mgt thanh phan khong tach rdi eua he thbng k i l n true tang tren dadng sat, mbi thanh ta vet dagc g i n k i t vdi cac thanh ray dat tren nen da balats nhd cac phu kien lien ket khac nhau. Do dd viee lap dat moi chung loai ta vet khac nhau lubn di kem theo cac yeu cau b i t bubo ve ray va phy kien lien k i t , cung nha tai trpng, tbc dp va thdi gian l i p dat eho phep, nhat la khi tien hanh l i p dat tren dadng dang khai thae. Do dd tieu chi lap dat t h i hien tinh de dang, thuan tien, de dieu chinh cua moi chung loai ta vet.

• Duy tu: Tieu chi nay dl/a ra nham danh gia mbt chung loai ta vet dbi hoi cbng tac duy tu, bao daang d mdc do nha the nao d l dap dng dagc cac yeu cau ve ehi tieu ky thuat, dam bao an toan chay tau va do ben cua vat lieu.

Chi phi duy tu dinh ky hang nSm va vdng ddi cua moi thanh ta vet eung can phai xem xet, tinh toan vao trong gia thanh dau vao cua moi thanh ta vet va la mgt trong cac yeu to can xem xet de quyet dinh laa chgn ta vet s d dung.

3.2 Thiit ki bang phong vin chuyen gia vi lua ehon chuyen gia phdng van

Bang phong van chuy§n gia daoc thiet ke n h i m xae dinh t h d t a

TAP CHI CAU OL/ONG VIET NAM

KHOA HOC - CONG NGHE

yu tien eua cac tieu ehi danh gia theo muc dp quan trpng dbi vgi viec thuc hien muc tieu, cung nhu d l lay y k i l n chuyen gia so sanh tdng cap ddi ehi tieu d cap eao nhit trong he thbng chi tieu danh gia tac ddng cua dy an.

Obi vdi cdng tae lya chpn chuyen gia de phdng van, cd the lua chpn eae chuyen gia va nhdng ngudi ed lien quan d l phdng van xin y kiln; eae chuyen gia ve giao thdng van tai; eae chuyen gia ve mbi trudng, nang lagng; cae dai dien cua eae ea quan chinh quyen hay cac co quan q u i n ly Nha nude ve giao thdng van tai; dai dien eua eo quan thye hien d noi triln khai du an; dai dien cac nhdm ngudi se chju tae dpng anh hudng khi ed dy an...

3.3 Kit qua dinh gii tdng hdp va phin tich dd nhay

De danh gia theo cae ehi tieu dugc d l cap trong phuang phap AHP cd the su dyng su hb trg cua p h i n m I m "Expert Choice" (cd the tham khao p h i n m I m nay tai dja chi http;//wvwv.expertehoice.com).

Day la phan mem thuong mai dugc thilt k l d l hb trg eho viec ra quylt djnh dya tren co sd nen tang la phaong phap danh gia theo he thbng chi tieu cap bac AHP vdi cac chdc nang hb trg viec xay dyng he thbng chi tieu danh gia, phan tich sb lieu phdng v i n chuyen gia d l xae dinh trpng sb t h i hien mdc dp quan trong cua cac chi tieu, dbng thdi cho phep xae dinh ehi sb danh gia tinh chit nhit quan trong danh gia cua cac chuyen gia.

Qua trinh danh gia theo phuang phap he thbng chi tieu cap bac vdi su trg giup eua phan m I m

"Expert choice" cho k i t q u i nhu sau:

Kit qua dinh gia thd tu uu tien cua cac tieu chi thea mde do quan trong: hinh sd 1

Kit qua sa sinh cap ddi cic phuong in lua ehon thea tieu ehi

Tieu chuan: hinh sd 2

Kit qua so sanh cap ddi cic phuang in lua ehon theo tieu ehi

Do ben: hinh sd 3

Kit qua sa sanh cap ddi eae phuang in lua ehon thea tieu chi

Gia: hinh sd4

Kit qua sa sanh cap ddi eae phuong in lua ehon thea tieu ehi Mdi trudng: hinh sd 5

Kit qua sa sinh cap ddi cac phuong in lua chgn theo tieu chi

Lip dit: hinh sd 6

Kit qua so sanh cip ddi cic phuang an lua chan thea tieu ehi Duy tu: hinh sd 7

Kit qua dinh gia tdng hap cic phuang an chpn va phin tich do nhay thea hieu suit: hinh sd 8

4. KET LUAN

Phaang phap danh gia theo he thbng chi tieu cap bac AHP da giai quylt dugc mbi quan he eua nhieu y i u tb tham chieu. Viec t i l n hanh lya chpn cac phuong an dugc thye hien trong mdi trudng cd nhieu yeu tb tac dpng n h i m dap ung mpt each tbt nhat cae muc tieu de ra.

Phuang phap nay giup cho viee lya chpn dugc phuang an tbi uu khi xem xet danh gia mdt sb lugng dang ke cae tieu ehi eho trude.

Day la cdng cu tbt d l giii quylt eae bai toan danh gia tbng hgp hieu qua kinh te-xa hpi eua cac dy an d i u tu, nhat la cac dy an trong ITnh vyc giao thbng van t i i .

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KHOA HOC-CONG NGHE

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Performance Sensitivity w.r.t. GOAL for nodes below GOAL

Abbreviation

Tchuan Do ben Gia Mtruong Lap dat Duy tu

TV beton TV go TV sat

Duytu

Definition

Tieu chuan ky thuat dap ung cua Ta vet Kha nang ve do ben cua vat lieu che tao

Gia thanh mot thanh Ta vet tam tinh vao cung mot thoi diem Muc do tac dong den moi truong cua moi loai Ta vet Tinh thuan loi, de dang khi van hanh, lap dat Yeu cau, muc do doi voi cong tac duy tu, bao duong

Ta vet bang be tong Ta vet bang go Ta vet bang sat

TAP CHI CAU OJONG VIET NAM