Co hoi va thach thiic cua kinh te Met Nam sau dai dich COVID-19
H 6 D ^ Nghla TniCmg Dgi hoc (>5ng nghe IP. Ho Chi Minh
TicdOng ciia djeh binh COVID-19 dang dgt irit h; kinh t i thi gidi vio mOt sy Uiay ddi vdi nhiiu Co hOi vi eiing khing kim phin thich thiic. Vdi Viit Nam la, irudc nhirng thinh edng bude diu ctia vi$e phdng chdng djch COVID-19 hiiu qui, diy s i li co hOi d i nude la da dgng hda ngudn cung vi tham gia chudi gii trj vdi trinh dO cao hon. Thyc t i eho thiy, dgi djch COVID-19 d i khiin cho ea Uii gidi bj d i o lOn, nhiiu chuyin gia kinh t i dy bio ring, sau dgi djch, chuOi cung ling loin eiu s i dupe sip x i p Igi. Diiu niy se dem din nhiing co hOi mdi cho cic thj trudng ning dOng mdi ndi vi Viit Nam cQng nim Uong sd dd.
1. The gloi "chao flao" vi COVID-19
Ting trudng kinh t i suy giim tgi nhiiu nin kinh Ii irong Quy 1/2020 do i n h hudng tir dleh binh. Gii diu gikm do viie khdng dgt dupe thda thuin vi cit giam sAn iupng giiia OPEC vi Nga (price war) eimg inh hudng lil dgi d(eh lan rOng tren loin eiu.
Theo nghiin euu eiia Viin Nghien eiiu Kinh t i vi Chinh sieh (VEPR), cic qud'e gia Irin thi gidi d i u cd cSc chinh sieh riing d i hd trp n i n kinh ti, cd ging ching Igi inh hudng tii djch binh COVID-19.
Cic dp bio ting trudng kinh t i cua c i c id chuc Icm trftn Uii gidi cd vi nhu chua c i p nhit hit Unh hinh hiin tgi. IMF gin diy cinh b i o ring kinh t i thi gidi cd Ih^ roi vio suy thoii trong nim 2020 trudc khi phyc hii vio nim 2021.
Riing vi kinh t i My, c i c chi b i o vi sin xuil vi djch vy diu syt giim mgnh vio eudi Quy 1/2020, ty li Uiit nghiip ( d i diiu ehinh miia vy) ling manh lin mue 4.4 % trong thing Ba. 17 triiu viie lim da bj cit giim Uong 3 tuin gin diy nhat Nhim chdng lai inh hudng tir djch binh: Fed hg lii suit xudng mue 0- 0.25% ddng Uidi cam kil se mua it nhit 500 ti USD trii phiiu kho bgc vi it nhil 200 U USD chiing khoin ed dim bio bing lii sin t h i chip trong nhirng thing tdi.
B4n thin Chinh phu My tung ra gdi ciiu trp trj gia 2000 ty USD di hd tio. euu trp ehdng djeh COVID-19 va bao dim an ninh kinh ti.
Vi phia cic nude chiu Au, lo nggi Uudc sp bung phii ciia Coronavims din d i n mOt cuOc khiing hoang nhan dgo, Ngin hing Tmng uong chiu Au (ECB) d i mgnh tay chi Uiim 120 ty Euro vio chuong trinh mua lii sin (APP) vi bd sung thim chuong trinh mua khan cip dgi djeh (PEPP) tri gia 750 ty Euro. Kinh t i Anh suy giim ting Uirdng trong Quy 4/2019 diing d miic 1.06%
do tsng trudng Uiu dung khdng ddi, tdng vdn cd djnh glim mgnh, ting trudng nginh xiy dung giam.
Nhim ling phd vdi djch binh, Ngin hing Tmng uong Anh (BoE) d i cit giim Iii suit xudng muc 0,1%
ddng thdi Uip tyc thyc hiin chucmg Irinh mua trii phiiu chtnh phu Anh vi trii phiiu doanh nghiip cip diu tu phi tii chinh trj gii 645 ty bing Anh.
Kinh l i Nhit Bin, ting tmdng Quy lV/2019 dgt i m 0,69% do tiiu diing c i nhin giim, diu tu cdng vi chi tiiu tu nhin giim. Chi sd sin xuit cdng nghiep d muc 100,2 trong thing Hai. Lam phii loin phin giim xudng cdn 0,4% Uong Ihing Hai cdn Igm phit ldi d miic 0,2%. Ngin hing Tmng uong Nhit Bin buOe phii ndi Idng ehinh sich tiin ti ting phd dupe sp biing phit ctia COVID-19 tgi Nhil Bin. Chi sd PMl giim manh chi cdn 35,7 diim trong Uiing Hai vi kit thiic d 52 diim Uong thing Ba.
Vdi n i n kinh l i Tmng Qudc, Iy gii CNY/USD biin dOng mgnh trong Quy I theo chiiu hudng ting, dgt miic cao nhil 7,1 CNY/USD vio cudi thing Ba. Trong hai thing diu nim, Tmng Qudc d i chi khoing 16,4 ty USD dudi dgng cic gdi kich thich kinh t i cung vdi 112,51>' USD dudi hinh Uiiie cit giim Uiui, phf d i vuc diy nin kinh ti. Ngin hing Tmng uong Tmng Qudc (PBoC) chi 162 ty USD d i hd trp eic doanh nghiOp
Cdn ddi vdi kinh Ii eic nude BRICS, ehiing kiin ting Uudng kinh Ii Uiip Uong Quy lV/2019. Di ddi phd vdi dleh COVID-19 eiing inh hudng eiia djch binh len nin kinh te, chinh phii An DO d i lung gdi cuu Irp tri gii 2,1 ly USD eho khu vuc y te; edng bd k i hogch chi Uiu tri gii 22,5 t> LSD d i giiip ngudi nghio ddi phd vdi dich binh; gia hgn thdi han ddng Ihue thu nhap. thui hing hda va dich vy (GST) nim 2019 cho din 30 6 cho cac doanh nghiip. Ngin hing Tmng uang da thing qua cac ngin hang thuong mgi d i bom vio thj Irudng khoang 9 - 10 t\' USD. Ting irudng kinh t i Uiip, tinh Uang np cdng \a ngin sach ngay cang xiu di eiing vdi Unh hinh kinh te Uii gidi bit dn nhu hi?n nay ed thi
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khi€n kinh li Nam Phi roi rao suy thoaL chuyen A6i hi*u qua: CAn h«l sue l*o ^iu ld«n v* m6i Tang ttuong kinh 1* ASEA.N 5 su> giam trong Quv tnk)ng W ch* vS chinh s4ch nginh » 4 y '4 nhf ">
IV/20I9. Chinh phu Indonesia tuytn W s« chi Biu ginh dft cho c4 n i n kinh tfl; Thuc <My dAu tuc6ngdi - - - - kfem ti^t ki^m chi thuong xuyfen; Day nhanh thvc tnen c i c du i n h? ting d i AUQC phi duyfl: Cit giim/d*!
ki^m dii (hudng xuyfen t6i thiiu 10%; Trong dii h ^ , cin CO nhimg chinh sich dii hoi hon. Gid nen ting vl ma 6n dinh di chuan b| cho sv phuc hii sau binh thim 24,8 t> ISD d i b i o vi n i n kinh l i nam 2020.
ch6ng 1^ i n h huong tir dai dich viim duong h i hip.
Chinh phu Phillipines tung goi h6 tn? tii chinh tn gia 526 triiu USD nham cli6ng dich vi h6 tro nguoi lao dOf^ c i c doanh nghiip vua \ i nl>6, iinh vyc du flch.
BO tii Chinh Thii Lan d i hing la gdi ciiu Up khin cA) d*ch. Tiing bude xiy dpng d i m til khda d i phdng chdng nhdng cii sdc kiiu COVID-19. Da dgng hda Uij Uudng xuil^nhip khiu (hinh phy UiuOc hoin toan vio EU, My. Nhit hay TQ)...
3. Cff hol moi. TM UI moi
Hiin nay, vdi sp gdp mgt ciia e i e t i p doin da qude gdi kieh Uiich kinh t i vdi tdng U1gia65tyddlaM>di gia nhu Samsung, LG... Vi$t Nam hd Uiinh diim s i n xuil ehinh Uin thi gkSi vi khu vpc, k i o Uieo hing uam n h i eung c i p iinh ki^n di cdng, d i giiip diin Uiogi Ud thinh mil hing xuit khiu chii ipc sd mOt tn 0k 3,17 ty USD rUiim h6 hp ngudi lao dOng tiiu
ntiip thip \a ngudi ngheo. Hiip hOi Ngan hing Thii Lan d i thdng qua quy dn djnh trii phiiu doanh nghiep (SBSF) UI gii khoing 3.2 ly USD d i giiip c i c doanh nghiip khdng cdn khi ndng dao no c i e khoin np trii phiiu d i d i n hgn. Chinh phii Malaysia d i tung ra t » chdng Igi i n h hudng bdi djch COVI[>-19.
I ttM kMi, llnh boat tnmo flei 2. net Nam CM
A MbMb UM te SM '
Tror^ bit ky kjeh tiin nio, trcMig ttioi ky hiu COVID-19 d Viil Nam. su phyc hdi hoin toan cua nhiiu nginh nhu hing khdng, du ljch hay thdi trang xuil khiu s i gip nhiiu khd khin va kio dii cho ldi khi t h i gidi hoin toin kiim soit dupe binh djeh.
TrMig ngin hgn, chi tiiu cua khu vpc edng cd thi txi d i p dupe nhiing khd khan tren nhung trong dii hgin l i khdng ihi. Do viy, tiiin vpng kinh l i Vi$i Nam nhiing n i m sau phy IhuOc nhiiu vio v i ^ phat triin thinh cdng vic-xin hoic thudc d i e tij trin thi gkji.
Con s6 ting Uudng GDP khdng phin i n h dupe h i t nhiing khd khin thit cua nin kinh t i do khdng phAn i n h dupe diy du khu vyc i ^ chinh thiic vdn bj inh hudng ning n i hon hin so vdi nhiing dpt suy thoii tnjoe diy. Cin xa>' dyng c i c kjeh b i n ling phd chinh sich khic nhau ddi vdi e i c c i p dp vi binh djch.
(ehiim khoing 20% tdng kim nggch xuit khiu ciia Vi^t Nam). Hing nim, xuil khiu diin thogi vi linh kiin vio My khoing 30% kim nggch ciia m i l hing niy vi !>• li dd vdi chiu Au 26%.
Cic mgt hing cdng ngh$ khic ed gdp siic cua khdi FDl, d i ting nhanh vi sdm tiip cin c i c thj tmdng cao cip. Dit may vio \K 45% vi vio chiu Au 18%. Vdi da giiy. e i c ly trpng dd li 36% vi 27%, ba Id v i Uii xich li 39% vi 22%. Trong 5 Uij Uudng .xuil khiu dd g6 k ^ cua ViOt Nam, My, Nhit Bin, Hin Qudc l i 3 t i n hidi s i vio nhdm "bd tii kim cuong".
Ddi vdi e i c logi ndng thiiy sin, sau nhimg bude thim dd, Ihim djnh ehit lupng, xii ly cdng nghi, nhiiu logi rau q u i ciia ta d i dit ehin vio c i c thj trudng cao e i p niy.
Trong khi dd, e i phi, hgt diiu, hd Uiu, c h i cua Viit Nam dang nd Ipc lam mdi. nhil l i nang luc c h i biin, Trong mpi hoin cinh phii Igo diiu ki^n tdt nhit eho dam b i o v$ sinh. an loin thyc phim d i viing ving c i c doanh nghiip cdn cd k h i ning hogt ddng (cd dimg Uong top hing diu t h i gmi vi xuit khiu. T phuong i n Uiich ling \ v a sin xuat viia phfmg d W ^ Nhting ddng gdp dd d i khiin My Uiy l i khieh hing djch binh; tranh ngin sdr^ c i m chp cpc doan d mOt muOn, nhung d i nhanh chdng tiip quin vj tri sd mOt sd d^a phuong; Uu Uin thpe hiin c i c chinh sach an vi thj trudng xuit khiu Wm nhit eiia Viil Nam, v<M 23%
sinh x i hOi- Chi u i BHTN, hd tip ngudi bj tgm Uidi tdng kim nggeh xuil khiu nude ta. Dung thii 2 l i chiu ngung v i ^ Trp c i p cho ngudi ngheo. c i nhin « bO Au 17.5%. Ci 2 thj Uudng niy d i u vugt xuit khiu Viit kinh doanh bj mit k i sinh nhai. Ddi vdi nhdm DN bj Nam vio thj Uudng truyin thdng Tnmg Qude.
ngung hogt dOng: Khoanh'ngung c i c ehi phi tii chinh (Khoanh np/lii. Uin Uiui dat). Sau khi binh djch qua di, n i u cdn hogt dOng Ird Igi mdi khuyin khich tin dpng. Chinh sich ^ i n hay thim chi li miin c i c loai Uiui khdng cd tic dyng vdi nlw^n DN niy.
Trong nhOng nim gin diy. Vi$t Nam d i ky nhiiu hiip djnh thuong mgi U; do da phuong, song phuong vdi nhiiu ddi lie (FTAs). Co hOi md ra UiJ Uudng xuit khiu ciia Viit Nam d i rd ring h o a Q ehiiu ngupc Igi Viet Nam cd Uii nhip khiu miy mde, Uiiit b| phy D& w i nhdm cac DN tH i n h hudng nhung edn hoat Uing cao e i p . tiip nhin chuyin giao cdng nghe adc dOng: Cin cd tiiu chi phin togi mue dd chtu i n h cdng nghi ngudn ciing c i c n h i sing chi, chuyen oia hudng vi hudng hd Up. HoiiVmiin ddng BHXH, tiin d i u nginh Kr nhiing r»in kinh t i phit tri^n vio IWD thui dit, lii \^y, giin Uiu Uiui VAT {khdng phai Uiui lie. h6 Up phit Uiin, Uiay vi uing bj Uip nhin c d ^ TNDN): L'u dii \iin \^y nhung phii d i m b i o phuong nghi sao chip, l^c hiu hi c i c nude lin bang d i v i an kinh doanh kha thi d i u i n h np xau. Ddi vdi nhdm dang d i Igi nhiing h i lyy khd ludng.
c i c DN It hojc khdng M inh hudng. hoic cd hudng
- * * ^ flip Irang 61 1 0 4 Km^ T* C - * u A • TM*J BtHM O t ^ — fTMAM* * . ZOZai
