THL/C TRANG QUAN HE THl/dNG MA' CUA SINGAPORE V6l AUSTRALIA VA NEW ZEALAND GIAI DOAN 2010 - 2018
NGUYIN HA PHITCJNG*
Tom tdt: La mdt trong nhdng quoc gia ddn ddu eda ASEAN, Singapore ludn chd trgng hgp tdc kinh ti vdi cdc ddi tdc tr&n the gidi trong dd cd Australia vd New Zealand. Trong giai dogn 2010-2018, vdi nhdng bien ddi cua nen kinh ti todn cdu cUng nhu su dieu chinh trong hogt ddng hgp tdc thdang mgi hai chiiu, xudt nhgp khdu eda Singapore vdi Australia vd New Zealand cd nhdng bi§n dSi quan trgng.
Bdi viit ldm ro nhdng vdn de ndy thong qua ba npi dung chinh Id (1) Hogt dpng hgp tdc thuong mgi eda Singapore vdi Australia vd New Zealand, (2) Ket qud hgp tdc thuang mgi gida Singapore vdi Australia vd New Zealand giai dogn 2010-2018, (3) Mpt sd nhgn xet vd kit lugn.
Tic khda: Quan he thuang mgi, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand.
1. Cac c a m ke't va thoa thu^n htfp tac thifofng m a i ciia S i n g a p o r e vcfi Australia v a N e w Zealand.
Australia la quo'e gia dau tign eong nhan n i n doe lap cua Singapore vao nam 1965.
Nhan ky niem 50 nam quan he ngoai giao vao nam 2015, hai quoe gia da cam kg't thdc hien Quan he do'i tac chie'n Idpe toan dien de eung hpp tac phat trien cac linh vflc, trong do eo thuang mai. Mpt trong nhting hpp tae thupng mai noi bat eua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand la viec ky k i t cac Hiep dinh thuong mai tii do (FTA) song phdcfng va da phuong,
Diu tign la Hiep dinh thuong mai td do
Singapore- Australia (SAFTA) co hieu liie vao nam 2003, Day la FTA dau tidn eiia Australia dddc ky k i t k l tfl sau Hiep dinh thflcfng mai quan he kinh tg' chat che hdn cija Australia va New Zealand n a m 1983.
Dieu nay eho tha'y vai trd quan trong va tiem nang hpp tae eua Singapore vdi Australia trong khu viie Dong Nam A eflng nhfl trgn thg' gidi. Vao thang 10/2016, hai quo'c gia da ky k i t thda thuan SAFTA sda doi (chda cd hieu lUe) vdi nhflng cam k i t sau hon va mcf eda hcfn'^'. Day la mpt phan cua gdi sang kig'n n h i m thdc day Quan he doi tae ehig'n Iddc toan dien gifla hai quoc gia. SAFTA la tru cot ehinh trong mg'i quan he kinh t l noi ehung, thdang mai ndi
" N g u y i n H a PhUOng, Vien n g h i e n cflu B o n g N a m A
Nguyin Hd PhUcfng - Thuc trgng quan hi thuang mgi ciia Singapore.. 49 rigng gifla Singapore va Australia. Npi
dung ehfnh ciia SAFTA la xoa bd t a t ea thue quan doi vdi hang xua't k h i u cua Singapore sang Australia, thiet lap ed che' tfl ehflng nhan, thdng qua quy tac xuat xfl bao gom 15 trinh day du ve quy t i c xuit xfl cu the theo tdng san pham, dam bao moi trfldng boat dpng cho cae n h a cung cap dich vu va hao ve cac nha dau tfl.
Singapore va New Zealand cung thie't lap quan he ngoai giao vao n a m 1965. La hai quoc gia nho tign tig'n trong khu vdc chau A-Thai Binh Dfldng, New Zealand va Singapore cd sd b l sung kinh te m a n h me cho nhau. Hai nfldc da ky nhieu hiep dinh hpp tae song phflcfng va da phflcfng, noi bat la Hiep dinh Quan he dd'i tac kinh t l gan gui (CEP) dflpc ky ket vao n a m 2000 va cd hieu life mpt nam sau dd'^l Day la FTA dddc ky kg't nhanh nhat cua hai quo'c gia khi ehfla day mpt nam da hoan t a t dam phan, CEP la FTA toan dien tren nhieu linh vue bao gom hang hda, dich vu, dau tU, cac rao can ky thuat va ve sinh/kiem dich do'i vdi thUdng mai hang hda. Thang 11/2019, cd quan hai nddc da hoan t h a n h dam phan nang cap CEP. Hiep dinh nang cap nay bo sung rapt so' quy t i c cu t h i giup ddn gian hda viec dang ky m i l n thue', eflng nhfl rut ngin thdi gian lam thu tuc thdng quan cho hang hoa eua hai bdn*^'.
Ngoai hdp tac song phUtfng, Singapore Cling la mpt trong nhiiiig thanh vign tfch cUe trong cac hiep dinh hdp tac da phdcfng vdi Austraha va New Zealand. Cae hiep dinh noi bat co the k l d i n la Higp dinh thddng mai tu do ASEAN- Australia -New Zealand (AANZFTA) (da thdc thi), Hiep dinh Dd'i tac Kinh te Toan didn Khu vflc (RCEP) (dang dam phan), Higp dinh Dd'i tac Toan dien va Tien bp xuygn Thai Binh Dfldng (CPTPP) (c6 hieu lire). Cu the nhfl sau:
AANZFTA la thoa thuan thddng mai tU do da phddng cua Australia va New Zealand vdi khoi ASEAN dupc ky kg't vao ngay 27/2/2009 tai Hua Hm, Thai Lan.
Singapore la mpt trong tam nUdc dau tien thiie thi AANZFTA vao 1/V2010, bao gom Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Singapore, Philippines va Viet Nam**'. AANZFTA dflpc thanh lap d l tang cddng hdp tac toan dien gifla ASEAN vdi Australia-New Zealand tren nhilu linh vUc.
RCEP la FTA da phuong hfldng tdi muc tieu hinh thanh quEm he dd'i tae toan dien gida kho'i ASEAN vdi 6 doi tac ehie'n lUpc trong dd co Australia va New Zealand.
Hien nay, RCEP da va dang ddpe tie'n hanh dam phan tfl nara 2013 va cac qudc gia thanh vidn dang co' ging hoan thanh vao nam 2019. RCEP la co sd quan trpng trong viee tang eddng hpp tae kinh te sau sac hon thgng qua lien kg't thUcfng mai, diu tfl khu vflc'^'. RCEP tao thuan lpi cho hpp tae kinh te gida Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand thdng qua viec lien ke't vdi ehuli cung dng toan ciu tfl cac cdng ty xuyen quoc gia va tranh chong cheo cac hiep dinh song phuong khac.
CPTPP ddpe ky tai Chile ngay 8/3/2018 va chinh thdc cd hieu Idc td ngdy 30/12/2018 do'i vdi 6 qud'e gia dau tign hoan ta't thu tuc phe chuan bao gom Australia, Canada, Mexico, Nhat Ban, New Zealand, Singapore*^'. CPTPP bao gora 7 dieu va 1 phu lue quy dinh v l moi quan he vdi Hiep dinh doi tae xuygn Thai Binh Duang (TPP). CPTPP la FTA thg' he mdi vdi nhiing cam ke't sau va rpng vdi muc tieu tU do hda thucfng mai va dau tfl. Toan bp cac cam k i t ve md cfla thi trfldng trong Hiep dinh TPP v i n dfldc gifl nguyen trong Hiep dinh CPTPP'^'.
50 Nghien cdu Dong Nam A^jd8/20W_
Nhu vay, nhflng boat ddng hpp tac trong quan he thuong mai cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand cung vdi bd'i canh khu vflc va the gidi se la tien de giup cho trao doi thucfng mai hai chieu co nhCftig thay doi va dat dflpc nhfliig kg't qua dang ghi nhan.
2. ThUe t r a n g htfp tac thtfdng m a i gii?a Singapore vdfi Australia va N e w Z e a l a n d giai d o a n 2010-2018.
Dfldi tde dpng cua khung hoang kinh te' toan cau nam 2008, cac qug'c gia trgn thg' gidi trong dd cd Singapore, Australia va New Zealand deu phai do'i mat vdi sd suy giara ve trao dii thdcfng raai. Tuy nhign, nhd viec kf ke't AANZFTA va cac boat dpng hd trp thong qua higp dinh nay ma gia tri thucmg mai gifla Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand tang len dang ke vdi g i n 10 ty USD cho giai doan 2010- 2012. Tong kim ngach trao doi thdcfng mai hai ehilu dat gia tri cao nha't vao nam 2012 vdi g i n 25 ty USD, trong dd g i n 17 ty USD eho xuit khau va hon 8 ty USD cho nhap khau (Hinh 1). Day la diem dang ghi nhan trong bd'i eanh eae quoe gia dang kho khan trong qua trinh phuc hdi n i n kinh t l (Xem Hinh 1).
Sau khi dat dfldc mflc tang trudng cao
•vao nam 2012, gia tri thuong mai hai chieu lai giam nhe xuo'ng con g i n 20 ty USD mot nam sau dd va lai tiep tuc tang len 21,6 ty USD nam 2014. Tuy nhien, da tang trudng trong tong kim ngach xuat nhap khau eua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand khong ddpe duy tri khi lien tig'p giam vao 2 nam sau dd, dat gia tri thap nhat trong vdng 9 nam la 11,1 ty USD (nam 2016).
Nguygn nhan mpt p h i n la do Singapore khong cdn la quoc gia duy nhat trong ASEAN nhan dUpc nhiJftig lAi dai td FTA
song phUdng. Hay ndi each khae, vdi sfl tham gia cua tat cac cac nUdc ASEAN thong qua AANZFTA, Australia va New Zealand ed nhieu Ida chpn hem trong vigc tang cddng trao doi thflong mai vdi eac quoe gia khac trong khu vflc Dong Nam A ngoai Singapore, nhat la eac qud'c gia chda tflng ky k i t FTA song phflong vdi hai qud'c gia ndy nhU Viet Nam, Phillipines. Bang chdng cho thay, so vdi eac ndde ASEAN, Singapore luon la ban hang ddng d i u trong trao doi thdcfng mai vdi Australia va New Zealand. Song vdi sU vddn ldn cua mpt so quo'e gia nhU Thai Lan, Malaysia va dac biet la Viet Nam, Phillipines khie'n eho Singapore ehi xep d vi tri thfl hai vao nam 2015 va vi tri thd ba vao nam 2016, 2017. (Xem Hinh 2).
Mac du can can thUcfng mai ludn nghigng ve phia Singapore song eon so' nay cung CO xu hudng giam d i n qua cac n a m va khong on dinh. Thang dd xuat khau cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand dat gia tri eao nha't vao nam 2011 vdi 9,1 ty USD va lign tie'p giam manh trong vong 6 ndm lign tie'p va chi dat 1,3 ty USD vao nam 2011. Nhat la vao nam 2012 khi tong kim ngach xuit nhap khau cao song chij yg'u la do tang gia tri nhap khau tfl Australia va New Zealand. Dieu nay eung diln ra tUcfng tii vdi nam 2014. Nguyen nhan eua sii bat on dinh trong gia tri xua't khau cua Singapore vdi hai qud'e gia nay la do mat hang nhign lieu chilm ty le ldn trong CO cau xuat khau (Bang 1). Gia nhien lieu tren the gidi bat on d i n de'n viec xua't khiu khong ben vflng. B i n g viec ehuyen doi CO ca'u xuat khau, g i i m d i n mat hang phu thupc tai nguygn thien nhien nhfl nhien heu, hoa chat, eflng nhfl nang cap SAFTA, gia tri xua't khau so vdi nhap khau cua Singapore vdi Australia va New
Nguyin Hd Phuang - Thitc trgng quan hi thuang mgi ciia Singapore... 51
Hinh 1: Kim ngach xuat nh^p khau cua Singapore vdii Australia va New Zealand giai doan 2010 - 2018 (Ty USD) 30,0
25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0.0
11,2
5 / 2010
16,3
1 i
2011
I I
• 1
2012 2013 2016 2017 201s
Nguon: Tong hgp til ca sd dU lieu cua Wits- World Bank,
https://wits.woridbank.org/product-metadata.aspx?lang=en (truy cap ngay 11/05/2019),
Hinh 2: Trao doi thiirfng mai cua cac nridc ASEAN v6i Australia va New Zealand giai doan 2009 - 2017 (Ty USD)
2000 15 00 10 00 5.00 QOD
—Campuehia
—Phillipines 2013
—Indonesia •
—Singapore •
Malaysia
Nguon: Tong hap tti ca sd da lieu cua Wife- World Banh,
https://wits.worldbank.org/product-metadata.aspx?lang=en (truy cap ngay 11/05/2019).
Zealand mffi CO rhttng chuyin bien tich New Zealand Wang dUffng vfji 87,6% cho - - - ^1, „ t' \<MA^i%iti giai doan 2010-2018. Tuy nhiSn, khoang cue, can can thuong mai lan Wot dat d,4 ty B . . ., „. „
each ve thUtfng mai cua Smgapore voi USD va 4,3 ty USD vao n a m 2017 va 2018. ^^^^^^^ ^^ ^^^ ^^^^ ^ ^ ^^^^
(Xem Hinh 3). gjjj„ Singapore dang c6' g&ig thuc day Singapore chu yS'u xuat nhap khau vdi thuong mai vdi New Zealand. Giai doan Australia, cao hdn trung binh 7 l4n so vdi 2010-2012, kim ngach xuSt nhap kh«u cua
Nghien cdu Dong Nam A^d^f^^Iz.
Hinh 3. Kim n g a c h x u a t nh^p k h a u c u a Singapore Vdi AustraUa va N e w Zealand giai d o a n 2010-2018 (Ty USD)
20,000 15,000 l z 7 5 2 10,000
5,000 0,000
2,547
14,5; ' ^ ' ^ " ^W 17,3.71 l^-Of B I W8^ snBi f^m
1 ^ 0 5 1 9 , 3 3 5 9,967
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2 0 1 5 2016 2017 2 0 1 8 s Australia New Zealand
Nguon: Tdng hgp td co sd dd lieu cua Wits- World Bank,
https://wits.worldbank,org/product-metadata.aspx?lang=exi (truy cap ngay 11/05/2019).
Singapore vdi Australia luon cao hon gap 8 den 9 lan vdi New Zealand, song con so nay giam dan con 4 den 5 lan cho giai doan 2015-2018. Dieu nay cho thay, Singapore da dan chu trong trao doi thucfng mai vdi New Zealand, nhat la khi hai quoc gia tien hanh n^ng cap CEP vao nam 2019 va trd thanh d6'i tac thu'ong mai ldn nhat ciia New Zealand d khu vUc chau A Thai Binh DiTOng vdi gia tri thuong mai hai chieu hon 2 ty USD vao nam 2018.
Ccf cau thUdng mai gifla Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand giai doan 2010- 2018 khong can doi giu'a cac mat hang, nhat la doi vdi xuat khau tif Singapore.
Nguyen nhan cua sii chenh lech nay la do Singapore la quoc gia nhd vdi nguon tai nguyen va nhan life han che nen eac mat hang xuat khau khdng da dang va chi tap trung vao nganh chil life va cd tiem nang nhu tren. Cu the, Singapore la trung tam loc dau va van chuyen qua canh hang dau
d Chau A va lai la quoc gia cd vi tri dia ly gan vdi Australia va New Zealand n§n mat hang nhien lieu chiem ty trpng ldn trong CO cau hang xuat khau vdi ty trong la 64%
(Bang 1). Ngoai ra, Singapore cd cd sd ha tang vdi 12 khu vUc cong nghiep ldn t&p trung & mot so' nganh cong nghiep phat trien cao nhu cang bien, cong nghi§p ddng va sifa chUa tau, che big'n, dien tif va lap rap may mdc tinh vi nhu 6 dia may difen til va hang ban d&n'^'. Chinh vi vay, ngoai nhien lieu, cac m a t hang cd ty trong cao la may mdc va thiet bi dien (11%), thUc ph^m (7%), hda chat (5%), phuong tien van tai (3%) trong khi cac mat hang khac chi chiem chUa de'n 2% (Bang 1).
Co cau nhap khau cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand cd su chenh lech nho hon ccf ca'u xuat khau. Singapore la quoc gia vdi nguon tai nguyen thien nhien han che se co lpi the khi giao thucfng vdi Austraha New Zealand vdi nen nong
Nguyin Hd PhUcfng - Thuc trgng quan he thdcfng mgi cua Singapore... 53
nghiep phat trien cting nguon tai nguyen phong phu. Nhi&n lieu van la mat hang chiem ty le ldn trong cd cau nhap khau cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand (ty le dat 31%). Hai qud'c gia nay chu yeu xuat khau nguon nhien lieu sang Singapore de trung chuyan sang cac quoc gia Chau A khac. Cac mat hang ti&'p theo la da va thuy tinh (21%), dpng vat tUdi song va cac san pham ttf d6ng vat (12%), may mdc va thiet bi dien (9%), cac san pham ttf thUc vat (6%).
3. Danh gia q u a n h$ thvfoing m a i c u a Singapore vcfi A u s t r a l i a v a N e w Zealand
3.1. Nhitng ket qud dcit diipc vd nguyen nhan.
Qua phan tich thifc trang d tr§n, co t h i tha'y dupc quan he thUdng mai ciia
Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand da dat dUpc mot so ke't qua dang ghi nhan.
Trong giai doan 2010-2018, gia tri thuong mai hai chieu dat mUc tang trudng cao trong mpt so nam nhat la nhUng nam dau sau khi thUc hien AANZFTA. Vdi lich sii hpp tac lau ddi va khoang each dia ly gan nhau nen trUdc n a m 2015, Singapore luon la quoc gia cd gia tri thuong mai vdi Australia va New Zealand ldn nhat trong ASEAN. Ngoai ra, can can thuong mai luon nghieng ve Singapore vdi nhufng mat hang xuat khau chu lUc nhu nhien lieu, may mdc va thie't bi dien. Trong nhUng nam gan day, Singapore dang co gang thiic day thucfng mai vdi New Zealand. Dieu nay se giup cho Singapore cd the md rpng thi trUdng tai Chau Uc va t^n dung dUpc lpi the da dang hcfn la chi chu trpng quan h§ thucfng mai vdi Australia nhU nhifng
Bdng 1. Cd cau xua't k h a u ciia Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand giai doan 2010-2018 (%)
Nlidm hang hoa
D0ng vdt tuai song vd cdc sdn pham tit dQng vat Hoa chat
ThUc phdm Gidy Nhien li^u
Da song, da thuQC vd cdc sdn phdm tix da Mdy moc vd thiet bi dien Kim loai vd cdc sdn phdm kim loai
Khodng sdn Cdc sdn phdm khdc
NhUa vd cao su Bd vd thay tinh Nguyen lieu det vd sdn phdm det
Phuang tien van tdi Cdc sdn phdm thUc vdt Gd vd cdc sdn phdm tii: go
XuSi't khau 0,058 5,207 7,039 0,033 64,355 0,058 11,017
1,704 0,008 2,467 1,509 1,314 0,100 3,222 0,283 1,629
Nhap khau 12,143
3,198 4,246 0,057 31,289 0,218 8,547 2,799 0,202 3,782 0,685 21,323
0,355 4,166 6,124 0,865 Nguon: Tong hgp til co sd da li'eu cua Wits- World Bank,
metadata.aspx?Iang=en (truy cgp ngay 11/05/2019},
https ://wits. worldbank. org/product-
54 Nghien cdu Dong Nam AjjdJ^^2^
nam trUdc. De dat dUpc nhUng ket qua tich cue nay, mpt s6' nguyen nhan cd the k6 d&'n nhu sau:
Thd nhdt, trong nhdng ndm gdn day, xu the todn cdu hda, hgi nhdp kinh te qudc ti da vd dang tdc ddng sdu sdc din nin kinh ti cua cdc quoc gia tren thi gidi trong dd cd Singapore, Australia vd New Zealand. Su ton tai va phat tri^n cua cac n^n kinh te dang ngay cang trd nen le thupc l i n nhau nhieu hcfn trong nhijttig mo'i quan he hpp tac kinh te chat che hcfn d cap dp song phuong va da phucfng. Bo'i canh khu vifc va quo'c te cung la yeu to' quan trpng cd tac dpng d&'n quan he kinh tg' nay, nhat la khi Singapore la mpt trong nhUng quo'c gia dSn dau trong ASEAN va Australia New Zealand la mpt trong nliiJng do'i tac quan trpng cua ASEAN. Su hinh thanh Cong dong ASEAN (AC) sau nam 2015 cung vdi sU tham gia tich cUc cua Singapore la tien d l cho phat tri^n thuong mai cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand.
Thd hai, sU hinh thdnh chuoi cung dng khu vUc giup cho Singapore trd thdnh mdt xich quan trgng ddi vdi Australia ud New Zealand trong viec thuc ddy quan he thuang mgi vdi ASEAN. Cong dong kinh te ASEAN (AEC) hien la mdt trong ba tru cot chinh hpp nen AC. AEC dUpc t h a n h lap tren nen tang muc tieu chinh la: "Tao dUng mpt thi trUdng va co sd san xua't thong nhat cho cac quoc gia t h a n h vien ASEAN", thuc day dong chu chuyen tu do cua hang hoa, dich vu, dau tu va lao ddng cd tay nghe trong ASEAN"*^', Trong khudn kho xay dung AEC, ASEAN da va dang chu dpng di dau trong viec hinh t h a n h mpt mang ludi cac Khu vUc mau dich tu do vdi tUng doi tac quan trpng nhu Trung Quo'c, Nhat Ban, Han Quo'c, An Dp,
Australia va New Zealand. Day chinh la CO hdi ldn de hinh t h a n h chudi cung ijfng trong ASEAN. Vdi vi tri dia Iy nam dpc theo cac tuyen van chuyen quan trpng d Ddng Nam A, vdi bd bien dai 190 km cd cac cang nudc sau t u nhign'^"', Singapore dong vai tro quan trpng la trung t a m va ciia ngo de Australia va New Zealand dUa hang hda cua minh xufi't khau va trung chuyen sang cac nudc DQng Nam A ndi rieng, chau A noi chung.
Thd ba, Singapore, Australia vd New Zealand ludn tich cue ddy mgnh cdc hogt ddng hgp tdc thuang mgi nhdt Id cdc thda thuan song phucmg vd da phuang. NhU da de cap d trdn, cting vdi hch B\i lau dai trong quan he kinh te ndi chung, thUcfng mai ndi rieng, Singapore va Australia, New Zealand khdng chi ky ke't cac hiep dinh song phUcfng (SAETA, CEP) ma cdn da va dang tham gia cac hiep dinh da phUcfng (RCEP, CPTPP). Cu the, n h a n th^y tinh hinh sut giam trong trao doi thUdng mai hai chieu, Singapore da tie'n h a n h dam phan va nang cap cac hiep dinh song phUcfng vdi Australia va New Zealand l^n lupt vao nam 2016 va 2019. Nhd nhUng thay doi kip thdi ma kim ngach thuong raai hai chieu tang trUdng trd lai trong nhiing nam tie'p theo, dat gan 16 ty USD nam 2018'^^^ Chinh nhiing hiep dinh nay cimg vdi vi§c trien khai cac hoat dpng hoat dpng xuc tie'n thUOng raai, trao doi thUOng mai giUa Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand da dat dUpc mpt so' ket qua dang ghi nhan.
Thd tu, vi tri dia ly gdn nhau vd co cdu hdng hda bo sung cho nhau cdng gidp cho ba qudc gia di ddng trao doi thucmg mai.
Khoang each dia ly cua Singapore sang Australia chi hon 4000km va vdi New Zealand la hcfn 8000km. Chinh vi tri dia ly
Nguyin Hd PhUcfng - Thuc trgng quan he thdcfng mgi cua Singapore...
khong qua xa nhau nay giup cho chi phi van chuyan hang hda qud'c te thap hcfn so vdi cac quoc gia khac. Ngoai ra, vdi dien tich chi khoang 700 km^, Singapore thieu nguon dat de phat tri^n ndng nghiep va gan nhu khong cd tai nguyen thi§n nhien nhU nhien li^u, kim loai, khoang san. Trong khi dd, Australia va New Zealand lai la quoc gia phat trien nong nghiep vdi n ^ o n tai nguyen thien nhien doi dao. NgUpc lai, Singapore lai cd mpt so' nganh cong nghiep phat trien cao vdi cac san ph^m can thie't cho AustraUa va New Zealand. Vi vay, quan he thUdng mai hai chieu luon nhan dUpc sif tUdng quan bo trp l i n nhau, la cd sd trong vi§c hdp tac lau dai.
3.2. Nhiing vdn de con ton tai vd nguyen nhan
Ben canh nhOng thanh tuu dat dupc, quan he thUdng mai giOfa Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand giai doan 2010- 2018 cung gap phai nhieu kho khan. Nhin chung, gia tri trao doi thUdng mai giUa Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand cd xu hudng giam va khdng on dinh trong giai doan 2010-2018. Thang dU xulit khau cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand lien tie'p giam manh trong vong 6 nam li&n tie'p. Tong kim ngach xuat nhap khau cao song chu ye'u la do tang gia tri nhap khau ttf Australia va New Zealand. Ngoai ra, vdi sU vUdn l&n cua cac qud'c gia trong ASEAN, Singapore khdng cdn giCf vi the la quo'c gia d i n dau trong trao doi thuong mai vdi Australia va New Zealand. Mpt so' nguyen nhan dSn den nhijng van de con tdn tai tren bao gom:
Thd nhdt, nguyen nhdn cua sU sut gidm trong kim nggch xudt nhdp khdu Id do tdng thi nin kinh ti thi gidi cd mdc tdng trudng chgm. Sau khung hoang kinh
te n a m 2008-2009, keo theo nhUng cudc khung hoang cf quy mo quo'c gia va khu vuc da khien cho the gidi phai dd'i mat vdi nhieu khd khan. Cac nudc ldn nhU My va Chau Au phai dua r a nhieu bien phap kich cau, giam np cdng. Dieu nay khie'n cho xuat nhap khau ciia cae nUdc suy giam.
Quan he thUcfng mai giOTa Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand cung gap phai nhieu a n h hudng tieu cUc. Dac biet, nam 2015, Cut Du trOf Lien bang My (FED) lan dau tien trong 10 nam quyet dinh tang lai suat lien ngan hang them 0,25%*^^* da a n h hudng khong nhd den thanh toan quo'c te va lam cho cac doanh nghiep xua't n h a p khau khong cd du nguon tai chinh de tang cudng trao doi thuong mai. Dieu nay da lara cho kim ngach xuat nhap khau ciia Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand sut giam nghidm trpng vao nam 2015-2016 (Hinh 1).
Thd hai, ca cdu trao ddi thucmg mgi chu yeu dua vdo tdi nguyen thien nhien cung khiin cho kim nggch xudt nhdp khdu bien dpng theo gid thi trudng the gidi. Hay noi each khac, do mat hang chinh trong ccf cau xua't khau cua Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand la cac mat hang nhi§n lieu, nhUa va cao su, da va thiiy t i n h , nen khie'n cho quan he thUcfng mai khdng ben vijfng va chiu anh hUdng Idn ttf gia thi trudng the gidi. Cu the, nam 2015 la gia dau the gidi xud'ng mUc thap nhat trong hdn mpt t h a p ky, cd luc dUdi 35 USD/thiing*^^'. Do dd, gia tri thUdng mai hai chieu giam manh vao nam 2015 va 2016 (Hinh 1).
Thd ba, Singapore phdi ddi mat vdi nhdng cgnh tranh mdi td cdc nddc trong khu vUc. Song hanh vdi qua trinh toan cau hda va hoi nhap kinh te didn ra manh me, cimg vdi sif hinh thanh AEC ndi rieng va
56 Nghien cdu Dong Nam A, sd_ 8/2019 AC ndi chung, Singapore khdng cdn la
quoc gia ddtig dau trong trao doi thuong mai vdi Australia va New Zealand. Hay ndi each khac, vdi mdi trudng tU do thuong mai tu vide ki ket va thUc thi AANZFTA, CPTPP hay RCEP, cac qudc gia trong ASEAN, nhat la cac nudc chUa tffng co FTA song phucmg vol hai nUdc nay nhu Vi§t Nam, Philippines, da cd di§u kien thuc day giao thuang vdi Australia va New Zealand. Do dd, Singapore phai cd nhiftig thay d6i de thich diig vdi dieu kien mdi va phat huy dUpc vai trd cua minh trong khu vuc trong viec tang cUdng quan he thucfng mai vdi hai qudc gia nay.
Ket l u g n
Nhu vay, cd the tha'y, trong giai doan 2010-2018, quan he thucfng mai giifa Singapore vdi Australia va New Zealand da cd nhflng thay doi dang chu y. Tuy nhien, vdi sU vUcfn len cua cac qud'c gia trong ASEAN, Singapore da va dang dan mat di vi thg' la qud'c gia dan dau cua khu vifc trong trao doi thuong mai vdi Australia va New Zealand. Chinh vi vay, de tie'p tuc duy tri va phat trien dUpc nhUng lpi the va giam thieu cac han che trong quan he thucfng mai, Singapore cung vdi Australia va New Zealand can cd nhCfng hUdng di phu hpp, trong dd vai trd cua cac cap lanh dao phai la dieu pho'i vien va doanh nghiep can tich cUc va chii dpng hcfn trong viec tan dung cac Uu dai ciia FTA song phuong va da phucfng da ky ke't. Dac biet, Singapore can tan dung dupc nhCfng lpi the ciia AC ndi chung, AEC ndi rieng de xay dung chuoi cung dtig lien ket chat che vdi nhau de vUcfn len tra lai la qud'c gia d i n dau cua ASEAN trong quan he thUOng mai vdi Australia va New Zealand trong giai doan tdi./.
CHU THICH
1. Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2019), ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/aanzf- ta/pages/asean-australia-new-zeaiand-free- trade-agreement.aspx, (Truy cap ngay 5/1/2019).
2. New Zealand Foreign Afairs and Trade (2013), Agreement between New Zealand and Singapore.
3. New Zealand Foreign Afairs and Trade (2019), CEP overview https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free- trade-agreements /nz-singapore-closer-eco- nomic-partnership/cep-overview/(Truy cap ngay 7/1^2019)
4. Australia Foreign Afairs and Trade, 2018.
5. ASEAN Secretariat (2015), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: A Coherent Approach towards Economic Integration.
6. Enterprise Singapore (2019), Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)-Preamble.
7. B6 Cong thuong (2019), CPTPP la ^ ? http://cptpp.moit, gov .vn/ (Truy c&p ngay 15/5/2019)
8. VCCI (2016), Ho sa thi trUdng Singapore.
9. ASEAN (2008), ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint, Jakarta: ASEAISf Secretariat.
10. Intemations, The Economy of Singapore https://www.internations.org/singapore- expats/guide/29457-economy-fmance/the- economy-of-singapore-16045, truy cap ngay 15/5/2019.
11. https://wits.worldbank.org/product-meta- data.aspx?lang=en (truy cap ngay 5/11/2018).
12. CNN (2015), Fed raises interest rates https://money.cnn.coin/2015/12/16/news/ec o n o m y / f e d e r a l - r e s e r v e - i n t e r e s t - r a t e - hike/index.html (Truy cap ngay 4/05/2019) 13. OPEC (2015), Review of developments in
the world economy, Vienna, Austria.
